Albania: Sustaining Growth in a challenging environment. June 1, 2010 ABCDE conference, Tirana The World Bank
|
|
- Thomas Sanders
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Albania: Sustaining Growth in a challenging environment June 1, 2010 ABCDE conference, Tirana The World Bank
2 Outline Economic track record Investment and employment Old and new challenges for growth Conclusions
3 A strong track record in macroeconomic management Steady growth for 10 years (average 6%) Per capita income growing Inflation below 3% on average Fiscal consolidation until 2007 Less (but not zero) impact of the crisis on Albania 3
4 Growth, inflation and external balance ,0 GDP growth 60,0 10,0 Inflation 50,0 Imports 8,0 40,0 6,0 4,0 30,0 20,0 Exports 2,0 10,0 Remittances 0, ,
5 Employment and investment Between 2002 and 2008 non-agricultural employment and outward migration accommodated the fall in agricultural employment. Productivity growth could largely be explained by the reallocation of labor from agriculture to sectors with higher productivity Growth based on continued reallocation is likely to be less sustainable over the coming years Important to accommodate increase in working population without further migration Higher productivity and employment will require higher investment But private non-residential investment has been declining 5
6 Employment patterns Employment structure, LSMS Agriculture Mining/utilities Manufacturing Commerce Services Employment structure, Labor force surveys, INSTAT Others Services Constructi on Industry Public services Other Total Agriculture Annual Growth of employment : LSMS 0.2% INSTAT 1%
7 Structure of investment Investment as % of GDP Total Private residential Private non residential Public
8 Promoting investment: some general propositions Investment will flourish in an environment where returns are relatively high, uncertainty low and the rules clear Returns to investment depend on the ability of the country to absorb and effectively use new technologies availability of complementary factors of production (quality of human capital, availability of physical infrastructure and soft infrastructure - institutions) Uncertainty reduces perceived returns to investment. Potential sources of uncertainty are: macroeconomic or financial instability, unexpected changes in the regulatory or tax framework Governance and the rule of law: uncertainty about whether laws will be enforced and whether government policy commitments are credible Poorly defined or enforceable property rights 8
9 Many challenges have been tackled. Sound macro-economic framework established until 2007 Effective and well supervised financial system established Road infrastructure has been increased Electricity sector restructured, private capital introduced to improving distribution Reforms of basic and secondary education curricula started Legal frameworks for business registration, inspections and bankruptcy established
10 But new problems and constraints are emerging Tax rates % Tax rates % Corruption 71% Corruption 66% Skills and education of workers 39% Skills and education of workers 53% Electricity 62% Electricity 81% Access to financing 45% Access to financing 41% Tax administration 65% Tax administration 45% Telecommunications 21% Telecommunications 56% Courts 58% Courts 39% Access to land 26% Access to land 43% Business licenses and permits Alb SEE ECA 38% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Business licenses and permits Alb SEE ECA 31% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: BEEPS 2005 and 2008
11 11 Constraints on growth and development Each of the constraints on investment suggest a perception (and reality) of long term productive investments being risky The returns from long term productive investments are not yet fully appropriable to the investor (uncertain business environment, risk of unofficial expropriation, lack of skilled workers and underdeveloped ICT increases costs) The ex-ante perception of private investment returns, in terms of their level and dispersion (and particularly the risk of complete loss of capital), determines whether investment will be encouraged or discouraged.
12 The new challenge - promoting investment and innovation in the Albanian economy through: Development of an educated labor force, with quality education and skills relevant for a market economy (including ICT skills) Promoting conditions to end the Brain Drain from 1990 to 2008 over 40% of the staff of universities and research institutes have left Albania Supporting the development of ICT infrastructure: Albania has one of the lowest internet penetration rates in Europe (2.5% compared to 7.7% in the region and 22.9% in the EU) Ensuring effective rule of law laws are consistent, stable, implemented and adhered to by officials Maintaining a constant and high quality electricity supply Re-establishing sustainable macro-economic policies in an uncertain world how much debt and deficits can be tolerated?
13 What is new about the challenges? They are complex and interlinked: insufficient opportunities drove migration, reducing skills and the quality of tertiary education policy is now designed to reverse this Historical legacy and institutions reduce quality and relevance of education Slow development of ICT was a combination of lack of ICT education, slow development of regulatory frameworks, and need for investment in backbone IT infrastructure, and quality of electricity supply recently very active policies to tackle this More challenging external environment weakens macro-economic performance makes it more difficult to make commitments and managing public administration to achieve certain policy goals Some private investment is limited by uncertainty about the ability to implement and enforce laws and regulations They all involve developing the ability to be able to respond flexibly to a rapidly changing environment and particularly to adopt new technologies and organization forms
14 Ensuring macro economic stability: fiscal policy and debt alternative scenarios Adjustments in fiscal stance take time to affect levels of debt High levels of debt raise financing costs, make financing more difficult (or impossible see Greece) Markets look to the future what will the level of debt be in two or five years will the country be solvent Errors in forecasts, or a external shocks can make big differences to sustainability Fiscal deficit (%GDP) Debt (%GDP) How to convince creditors and investors which path has been chosen?
15 What the markets look for: stability, predictability and security In the future there will be in aggregate less financing and foreign investment available Those resources that are available will be attracted to countries which can provide stability, predictability and security in policies and macro-economic outcomes In practice this means no unpleasant surprises implying: Adopting conservative policy targets for revenues, growth and deficits overachieving a modest target is better than failing to achieve an ambitious one Not hiding the bad news it always comes out in the end (look at Greece) Explaining the basis of policy decisions, and abide by any rules Reducing levels of debt debt close to 60% of GDP in a developing country is perceived as a potential risk
16 What investors look for: rule of law and efficient public administration Continued efforts to promote integrity of public systems: e.g., legal and judiciary, expenditure management. Efficient and transparent public administration necessary for effective implementation of reforms Ensure reliable, predictable and fair enforcement of the rule of law, including rules governing the actions of public sector Respect for basic administrative procedures 16
17 What employers look for: skilled workers and managers Skills are seen increasingly as a constraint to investment, particularly in more sophisticated technology and complex processes Employers need workers with flexibility and the ability to learn quickly They also need managers the lack of good managers is often a major constraint on the expansion of a firm There are few effective mechanisms to communicate these needs to the education system
18 Conclusion Sustaining growth requires: Establishing rules and institutions which promote productive investment, strengthen education and skills, permit the rapid development of modern infrastructure (particularly ICT) Respect for the rules and institutions established Recognition that financing will be difficult and external shocks likely Cautious macroeconomic policies 18
19 19 The World Bank
AN OVERVIEW ON ALBANIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
AN OVERVIEW ON ALBANIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS Secretariat of Albania Investment Council, December 2017 Note: This Material is a summary of some of the main indicators and does not represent the
More informationCHAPTER 3: MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT AND INVESTMENT CLIMATE PRIORITIES
CHAPTER 3: MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT AND INVESTMENT CLIMATE PRIORITIES Investment climate conditions: 1989-2000 Even though Serbia began its economic transition relatively well integrated into the world economy,
More informationFiscal Rule for Albania. Jiri Jonas. Albania Opportunities and Challenges in the Move Towards Emerging Market Status. Tirana, May 14, 2008
Fiscal Rule for Albania Jiri Jonas Albania Opportunities and Challenges in the Move Towards Emerging Market Status. Tirana, May 14, 2008 Outline What are fiscal policy rules (FPR)? Brief history. Major
More informationGrowing Fiscal Differentiation in Europe and Central Asia: What does it mean for Albania?
Growing Fiscal Differentiation in Europe and Central Asia: What does it mean for Albania? Indermit Gill Chief Economist Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank Albania ABCDE Tirana, June 1-2, 21 Main
More informationSTEADY GROWTH OVER THE DECADES BRINGS TURKEY TO THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH INCOME, WHILE THE PROSPERITY WAS SHARED AND THE SIZE OF MIDDLE CLASS DOUBLED.
MESSAGE 1 STEADY GROWTH OVER THE DECADES BRINGS TURKEY TO THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH INCOME, WHILE THE PROSPERITY WAS SHARED AND THE SIZE OF MIDDLE CLASS DOUBLED. The average annual GDP growth rate was 4.5
More informationBanking on Turkey, October 21, 2008
Banking on Turkey, October 21, 2008 Slide 1. Title Slide Good morning. The global economic downturn and financial turmoil mean that economic growth will slow down in Turkey. There will be much slower growth,
More informationNATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA 1
1 Policy Regime Choices & Constraints: Romania Need for further sustainable disinflation, incl. from EU convergence perspective; move from 8.5% to around 2-3% difficult, fraught with costs (non-linear
More informationOutlook for the Chilean Economy
Outlook for the Chilean Economy Jorge Marshall, Vice-President of the Board, Central Bank of Chile. Address to the Fifth Annual Latin American Banking Conference, Salomon Smith Barney, New York, March
More informationThe medium-term budgetary framework in Estonia
The medium-term budgetary framework in Estonia Andrus Alber Vice-Chairman of the Council Vilnius, June 3 Evolution of the fiscal framework From the early 1990s political commitment to keep annual budgets
More informationUkraine. Systematic Country Diagnostic
For Discussion Only Ukraine Systematic Country Diagnostic Discussion October 2016 1 2 OUTLINE OUTLINE 1. New WBG Country Engagement Approach: What is an SCD? 2. Growth and Sustainability in Ukraine 3.
More informationRecommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2018 National Reform Programme of Poland
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 23.5.2018 COM(2018) 420 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2018 National Reform Programme of Poland and delivering a Council opinion on the 2018 Convergence
More informationArdian Fullani: Building a sound and efficient Albanian banking system
Ardian Fullani: Building a sound and efficient Albanian banking system Opening address by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the workshop on A sound and efficient Albanian banking system;
More informationThe Republic of Moldova: An Assessment of Macroeconomic Policies and Recommendations
The Republic of Moldova: An Assessment of Macroeconomic Policies 1998-2001 and Recommendations Report Prepared for Public Policy 556: Macroeconomics Professor Kathryn Dominguez Prepared by Shannon Hill,
More informationBelarusian Industrial Sector: Performance, Trends and Issues. Belarus Economic Policy Note July 8, 2010, Minsk
Belarusian Industrial Sector: Performance, Trends and Issues Belarus Economic Policy Note July 8, 2010, Minsk Outline Industrial performance in 2005-08: sources of growth Below the surface: warning signs
More informationLatin American Finance
MMost countries in Latin America have made serious strides toward reforming their economies in the last 15 years, opening their markets to trade and foreign investment, reducing government budget deficits,
More informationBusiness Environment: Russia
Business Environment: Russia Euromonitor International 13 April 2010 Despite the economic recession of 2009, a recovery is expected in 2010. The business environment remains challenging due to over-regulation,
More informationThe Swedish experience. Associate professor Gustaf Sjöberg Lisbon 29 June 2012
The Swedish experience Associate professor Gustaf Sjöberg Lisbon 29 June 2012 Outline A few facts about Sweden The 1990s crisis The recent crisis Lessons Backdrop Mindset of involved person and economic
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Angel Gurría Secretary-General The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) IMF
More informationCONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS A good governance framework and a skilled labor force distinguish Sri Lanka among developing countries. In sharp contrast with neighboring countries,
More informationBanking Developments and Financial Market Infrastructure
Bank of Albania Annual Conference Tirana, 9 November 2017 Banking Developments and Financial Market Infrastructure Radoje Žugić, Governor Banking sector developments Total Assets over 4 billion Euros Total
More information2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION WITH CHILE. Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. October 25, 2016
2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION WITH CHILE Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission October 25, 2016 Chile s fundamentals and policy framework remain strong. However, economic prospects are being shaped by
More informationCOMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES. Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION
EN EN EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 19.02.2008 SEC(2008) 221 Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No
More information9446/18 RS/MCS/mz 1 DG B 1C - DG G 1A
Council of the European Union Brussels, 15 June 2018 (OR. en) 9446/18 NOTE From: To: No. Cion doc.: General Secretariat of the Council ECOFIN 531 UEM 209 SOC 344 EMPL 277 COMPET 400 V 383 EDUC 232 RECH
More informationLiquidity Risk in Albania
ISSN 2286-4822, www.euacademic.org IMPACT FACTOR: 0.485 (GIF) DRJI VALUE: 5.9 (B+) Liquidity Risk in Albania ANJEZA BEJA Faculty of Economy University of Tirana, Tirana Albania Abstract: Interbank markets
More informationCoordination between fiscal and debt management policies Emerging Issues
Sovereign Debt Management Forum 2014 Background Note for Breakout Session 3 Coordination between fiscal and debt management policies Emerging Issues Introduction Debt management cannot be carried out in
More informationMeeting of G20 Ministers of Trade April 2012, Mexico. Strengthening the Multilateral Trading System Discussion Note 1
Meeting of G20 Ministers of Trade 19-20 April 2012, Mexico Strengthening the Multilateral Trading System Discussion Note 1 Main Messages Given the emergence of regional and global value chains, new measures
More informationBanks, Firms and Trade Finance Infrastructure in Albania
Banks, Firms and Trade Finance Infrastructure in Albania PhD Cand. Dorina Çumani dorinacumani@gmail.com European University of Tirana, Albania Abstract Firms engaged in international trade face to some
More informationThe analysis and outlook of the current macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policies
The analysis and outlook of the current macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policies Chief Economist of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Centre Wang Yuanhong 2014.05.28 Address:
More informationThe Macro-economy and the Global Financial Crisis
The Macro-economy and the Global Financial Crisis Ian Sheldon Andersons Professor of International Trade sheldon.1@osu.edu Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Global economic
More informationThe Monetary Policy of Central Bank of Albania: Undertaken Contrasting Measures Against Global Crisis
The Monetary Policy of Central Bank of Albania: Undertaken Contrasting Measures Against Global Crisis Doris Madhi PhD Candidate, Faculty of Economy University of Elbasan, Albania Email: dorismadhi@gmail.com
More informationASPECTS OF INSURANCE MARKET AND ITS RISK IN ALBANIA
Prof. Dr. Omer Stringa - Dean, Faculty of Economics, Tirana University Rinald Guri PhD candidate Head, Research & Statistical Directorate, Financial Supervisiory Authority Petrit Dollani PhD candidate
More informationBOARDS OF GOVERNORS 2003 ANNUAL MEETINGS DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
BOARDS OF GOVERNORS 2003 ANNUAL MEETINGS DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WORLD BANK GROUP INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
More informationEvaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Words. Copyright Aspose Pty Ltd. International Monetary Fund
Evaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Words. Copyright 2003-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. International Monetary Fund Czech Republic 2010 Article IV Consultation Concluding Statement January 25, 2010 The macroeconomic
More informationEconomic Reform in Uganda: Lessons for Africa 3 December Prof. E. Tumusiime-Mutebile, Governor
Economic Reform in Uganda: Lessons for Africa 3 December 2009 Prof. E. Tumusiime-Mutebile, Governor Introduction If I was asked what the one theme of this book is, I would say that the these is the relevance
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous
More informationBusiness in Nebraska
Business in Nebraska VOLUME 67 NO. 702 PRESENTED BY THE UNL BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH (BBR) JANUARY 2012 SUSTAINED GROWTH By the Nebraska Business Forecast Council U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook he U.S.
More informationSpanish position on the Future of Europe February Introduction
Spanish position on the Future of Europe February 2017 Introduction Six decades after the signature of the Treaty of Rome, the European Union (EU) has proved to be the most effective solution ever devised
More informationINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETRY FUND CAMBODIA. Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1
Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETRY FUND CAMBODIA Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
More informationUkraine Economic Growth and Financial Infrastructure. Michael Bleyzer March 2005 v10
Ukraine Economic Growth and Financial Infrastructure Michael Bleyzer March 2005 v10 1 UKRAINE: Economic Highlights Few non-oil producing countries in the world can show the following combination of economic
More informationChallenges for Monetary Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean
Challenges for Monetary Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean XCVII Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies Brian Wynter Governor Bank of Jamaica 29 April
More informationRegional Benchmarking Report
Financial Sector Benchmarking System Regional Benchmarking Report October 2011 About the Financial Sector Benchmarking System This Regional Benchmarking Report is part of a series of benchmarking reports
More informationReconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance. Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management
Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey D. Levy Blenheim Capital Management Prepared for Shadow Open Market Committee September 20, 2013 Reconciling FOMC Forecasts and Forward Guidance Mickey
More informationCOMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES. Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION
EN EN EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 19 February 2008 SEC(2008) 217 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 9 of Council Regulation
More informationMACROECONOMIC CHALLENGES FOR THE TRANSITION TO THE ECONOMY 4.0 IN BULGARIA
MACROECONOMIC CHALLENGES FOR THE TRANSITION TO THE ECONOMY 4.0 IN BULGARIA * Introduction The fourth technological revolution the world has been experiencing since the massive penetration of high technologies
More informationCOUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Brussels, 8 July 2013 (OR. en) 11198/13
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 8 July 2013 (OR. en) 11198/13 UEM 238 ECOFIN 585 SOC 491 COMPET 488 V 588 EDUC 244 RECH 288 ER 306 JAI 539 LEGISLATIVE ACTS AND OTHER INSTRUMTS Subject: COUNCIL
More informationGrowth Diagnostics: Theory and Practice
Growth Diagnostics: Theory and Practice Leonardo Garrido PREM-ED October 1 st, 2011 Outline Growth Diagnostics Foundations Principles of differential diagnosis Inclusive Growth vs Growth Diagnostics Going
More informationECONOMIC REFORM (SUMMARY) I. INTRODUCTION
Interim Country Partnership Strategy: Myanmar, 2012-2014 ECONOMIC REFORM (SUMMARY) I. INTRODUCTION 1. This economic reform assessment (summary) provides the background to the identification of issues,
More informationReview Exam 1. MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.
Review Exam 1 MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) Financial markets promote economic efficiency by A) reducing investment. B) channeling
More informationPRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY
BANK OF UGANDA PRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY 19, 2012 MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES Introduction I want to
More informationAfrican Economic Outlook 2015
African Economic Outlook 2015 ECA s Contribution to the World Economic and Situation Prospects 2015 (WESP 2015) Link Meeting: 22-24 October 2014 Adam Elhiraika Macroeconomic Policy Division United Nations
More informationIMPROVING FISCAL MANAGEMENT IN GHANA: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY RULES
IMPROVING FISCAL MANAGEMENT IN GHANA: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY RULES Institute of Economic Affairs Accra, Ghana 16 th June, 2015 6/16/2015 Introduction Ghana has a long record of poor fiscal management
More informationFiscal Assessment Report. April 2012
Fiscal Assessment Report April 2012 1 Overview Macroeconomic assessment Budgetary assessment Assessment of fiscal stance 2 Macroeconomic Assessment 3 Growth prospects have weakened since Budget 2012 %
More informationThe Icelandic Economy
The Icelandic Economy Spring 2006 Macroeconomic forecast 2006 2010 Summary edition on April 25th 2006 M inistry of Finance The Icelandic Economy Spring 2006 25 April, 2006 This issue is published on the
More informationCOMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 13.10.2011 COM(2011) 638 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE
More informationMonitoring of Graduating Countries from the Least Developed Country Category: Equatorial Guinea
Monitoring of Graduating Countries from the Least Developed Country Category: Equatorial Guinea Committee for Development Policy UN Headquarters, New York 23 27 March 2015 1 I. Background Equatorial Guinea
More informationRecent Developments in fiscal governance in the EU. Lessons from the crisis: from the Six- Pack to the Fiscal Compact
Recent Developments in fiscal governance in the EU Lessons from the crisis: from the Six- Pack to the Fiscal Compact The Crisis as en eye opener A comprehensive EU response to the crisis More effective
More informationAre we on the right track?
Indonesia s Economic Transformation Are we on the right track? Prof. Suahasil Nazara Chairman of Fiscal Policy Agency Bali, 6 December 2018 OUTLINE Aspiration to achieve high-income status National goals
More informationJean-Claude Trichet: The monetary policy of the ECB during the financial crisis
Jean-Claude Trichet: The monetary policy of the ECB during the financial crisis Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the University of Montreal, Montreal, 6 June
More informationMacroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries (RRDCs) IMF-World Bank 2013 Spring Meetings CSO Policy Forum
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries (RRDCs) IMF-World Bank 23 Spring Meetings CSO Policy Forum http://www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.aspx?id=698 Motivation and Presentation
More informationINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND DOMINICA. Debt Sustainability Analysis. Prepared by the staff of the International Monetary Fund
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND DOMINICA Debt Sustainability Analysis Prepared by the staff of the International Monetary Fund In consultation with World Bank Staff July 2, 27 This debt sustainability analysis
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF ALBANIA.
HALLUNOVI Arjeta - Foreign direct investment in developing countries: The case of Albania. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF ALBANIA. PhD Candidate Arjeta HALLUNOVI Lecturer,
More informationSTRUCTURAL SHIFTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY M I C H A E L S P E N C E N E W D E L H I J A N U A R Y
STRUCTURAL SHIFTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY M I C H A E L S P E N C E N E W D E L H I J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 2 2 3 What is the Next Convergence? Before the Industrial Revolution 200 years of divergence
More informationStocktaking of the Real Estate Market - Snapshot of the available data - Vice Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezoska
Stocktaking of the Real Estate Market - Snapshot of the available data - Vice Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezoska October, 216 Contents Why is the real estate market important for central bankers? Some structural
More informationRealizing the Potential of China s Social Security Pension System Published in China Economic Times, February 24, 2006
Realizing the Potential of China s Social Security Pension System Published in China Economic Times, February 24, 2006 Martin Feldstein and Jeffrey Liebman Harvard University China, like many of the world
More informationPublic Information Notice (PIN) No. 03/124 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 17, 2003 International Monetary Fund 700 19 th Street, NW Washington, D. C. 20431 USA IMF Concludes 2003 Article IV Consultation
More informationNational Strategy for Development and Integration
REPUBLIC OF ALBANIA COUNCIL OF MINISTERS National Strategy for Development and Integration 2014-2020 Draft, June, 2013 1 TABLE OF CONTENET Contents TABLE OF CONTENET... 2 1. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE
More informationBERMUDA MONETARY AUTHORITY GUIDELINES ON STRESS TESTING FOR THE BERMUDA BANKING SECTOR
GUIDELINES ON STRESS TESTING FOR THE BERMUDA BANKING SECTOR TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...2 2. GUIDANCE ON STRESS TESTING AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS...3 3. RISK APPETITE...6 4. MANAGEMENT ACTION...6
More informationThe Inforum LIFT Model: Analysis of Illegal Immigration
1366 742 118 1980 1990 2000 2010 ipe struc ih The Inforum LIFT Model: Analysis of Illegal Immigration June 9, 2006 Jeffrey F. Werling werling@econ.umd.edu http://www.inforum.umd.edu Inforum Interindustry-Macroeconomic
More informationDiscussion of The Bank of England s Approach to Stress Testing the UK Banking System
Philipp Hartmann European Central Bank Discussion of The Bank of England s Approach to Stress Testing the UK Banking System London 30 October 2015 London School of Economics/CEPR Conference on Stress Testing
More information2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific
2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific REAL ASSETS REAL ESTATE INVESTING TEAM INVESTMENT INSIGHT 2017 The global macroeconomic landscape continues its shift away from highly accommodative
More informationReforms in a Debt Overhang
Structural Javier Andrés, Óscar Arce and Carlos Thomas 3 National Bank of Belgium, June 8 4 Universidad de Valencia, Banco de España Banco de España 3 Banco de España National Bank of Belgium, June 8 4
More informationShort run prospects in Europe and the United States
Short run prospects in Europe and the United States Olivier Blanchard September 2003 Strong hope in Europe that the US expansion is gaining strength, and will take Europe out of its slump. Half right,
More informationWorldTrade Executive The International Business Information Source TM
EuroWatch WorldTrade Executive The International Business Information Source TM Reporting on Legal and Regulatory Developments Affecting Foreign Companies Operating in the EU March 15, 2010 Volume 22,
More informationCOUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Brussels, 6 July 2012 (OR. en) 11273/12 UEM 224 ECOFIN 598 SOC 575 COMPET 443 ENV 539 EDUC 216 RECH 279 ENER 308
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 6 July 2012 (OR. en) 11273/12 UEM 224 ECOFIN 598 SOC 575 COMPET 443 V 539 EDUC 216 RECH 279 ER 308 LEGISLATIVE ACTS AND OTHER INSTRUMTS Subject: COUNCIL RECOMMDATION
More informationUK membership of the single currency
UK membership of the single currency An assessment of the five economic tests June 2003 Cm 5776 Government policy on EMU GOVERNMENT POLICY ON EMU AND THE FIVE ECONOMIC TESTS Government policy on EMU was
More informationGovernor of the Bank of Latvia
Lessons from Latvia s internal adjustment strategy Ilmārs Rimšēvičs Governor of the Bank of Latvia September 4, 2012 Presentation outline Overheating of Latvia s economy Expansionary consolidation Lessons
More informationBanking Sector Monitoring Georgia 2018
Policy Studies Series [PS/1/218] Banking Sector Monitoring Georgia 218 Ricardo Giucci, Alexander Lehmann, Giorgi Mzhavanadze, Anne Mdinaradze German Economic Team Georgia in cooperation with Berlin/Tbilisi,
More informationEXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Overview
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview 1. Although this study focuses on the labor market in Turkey, forces outside the labor market affect job creation. Thus an effective job creation strategy will require a multipronged
More informationFiscal Policy Reforms in Kosovo
Fiscal Policy Reforms in Kosovo Prof.ass.dr.Bedri STATOVCI 1, Prof.ass.dr.Shefket JAKUPI 2*, Faculty of Business, University HAXHI ZEKA Peja 1 Faculty of Economics, University ISA BOLETINI Mitrovica 2
More informationSinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN 2015 PART II. by Andy Rothman. Why Do I Keep Saying China Won t Ease this Year?
Sinology by Andy Rothman February 19, 2015 a In the second of a threepart series, Sinology answers some of the key questions investors should be asking about China in 2015. a We are witnessing the odd
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Twenty-Ninth Meeting April 12, 2014 Statement by Siim Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission On behalf of the European Commission Statement of
More informationAnalysis of Developments in the External Sector of the Economy
B a n k of A l b a n i a Analysis of Developments in the External Sector of the Economy 212 Q4 Olti Mitre, Merita Boka Monetary Policy Department April 213 The views expressed in this material are those
More informationCrisis, Conflict, Fiscal Space and the MDGs in Tunisia and Egypt. Rob Vos Marco V. Sanchez United Nations
Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Space and the MDGs in Tunisia and Egypt Rob Vos Marco V. Sanchez United Nations Amman, 28 March 2012 Crisis, Recovery, Crisis Global recession 2008-2009 Continued financial fragility
More informationJoint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Update
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND DOMINICA Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis -218 Update Prepared by the staffs of the International
More informationGauging Governance Globally: 2015 Update
Global Markets Strategy September 2, 2015 Focus Report Gauging Governance Globally: 2015 Update A Governance Update With some observers attributing recent volatility in EM equities in part to governance
More informationIn 2011, economic activity remained sustained in most Franc Zone countries, in line with the strong growth (5.2%)
* In 011, economic activity remained sustained in most Franc Zone countries, in line with the strong growth (5.%) seen in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Franc Zone countries benefited in particular from continued
More informationAfghanistan: Transition to Transformation Update. January 29, 2014 JCMB Meeting. The World Bank
Afghanistan: Transition to Transformation Update January 29, 2014 JCMB Meeting The World Bank 1 Outline Outline Progress and Challenges Key Messages from Tokyo and Transition Report Recent Economic and
More informationA Fiscal Union in Europe: why is it possible/impossible?
Warsaw 18 th October 2013 A Fiscal Union in Europe: why is it possible/impossible? Daniele Franco Chiara Goretti Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance This talk FROM non-controversial aspects General
More informationEmployment outlook. Portugal: Forecast highlights. Between now and 2025:
Portugal: Forecast highlights Between now and 2025: Employment is forecast to increase slightly, but remain below its 2008 pre-crisis level. Most employment growth will be in business and other services.
More informationProgress Evaluation of the Transformation of China's Economic Growth Pattern 1 (Preliminary Draft Please do not quote)
Progress Evaluation of the Transformation of China's Economic Growth Pattern 1 (Preliminary Draft Please do not quote) Si Joong Kim 2 China has been attempting to transform its strategy of economic
More informationRecommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on Bulgaria s 2014 national reform programme
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 2.6.2014 COM(2014) 403 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on Bulgaria s 2014 national reform programme and delivering a Council opinion on Bulgaria s 2014 convergence
More informationIn March 2013, acting under
Lessons From the Detroit Bankruptcy Detroit s experiences are vitally important for many other urban areas in the United States for some time to come... BACKGROUND In March 2013, acting under a controversial
More informationAlbania BEEPS-at-a-Glance
THE WORLD BANK Introduction The EBRD-World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) is a joint initiative of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World
More informationGreece. Why a 100% debt-to-gdp before the crisis? Michel Husson, March 24, 2015
Greece. Why a 100% debt-to-gdp before the crisis? Michel Husson, March 24, 2015 In 2007, Greece's public debt was 103% of GDP (gross domestic product). This high level explains at least partly why Greece
More informationTHE IMPACT OF MARKET RISK IN CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO IN ALBANIA
International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management United Kingdom Vol. IV, Issue 6, June 2016 http://ijecm.co.uk/ ISSN 2348 0386 THE IMPACT OF MARKET RISK IN CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO IN ALBANIA
More informationMediterranean Journal of Social Sciences MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy
Consumer Market for Goods and Services as a Mirror of Social and Economic Transformation: From a Centralized Economy to the Accession of Russia the World Trade Organization Doi:10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n18p247
More informationHIGHER CAPITAL IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR STRESS TESTS. Nellie Liang, The Brookings Institution
HIGHER CAPITAL IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR STRESS TESTS Nellie Liang, The Brookings Institution INTRODUCTION One of the key innovations in financial regulation that followed the financial crisis was stress
More informationPublic Disclosure Authorized. Public Disclosure Authorized. Public Disclosure Authorized. Public Disclosure Authorized
69052 Tajikistan Agriculture Sector: Policy Note 3 Demand and Supply for Rural Finance Improving Access to Rural Finance The Asian Development Bank has conservatively estimated the capital investment needs
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-30 Statement by Mr. Tria Italy On behalf of Albania, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, and Republic
More information