FUTURE WELL-BEING OF THE ELDERLY
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1 CONFERENCE ORGANIZED AS PART OF THE QICSS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES DECEMBER 5-6, 2016 FUTURE WELL-BEING OF THE ELDERLY PROGRAM
2 LOCATION HEC Montréal Amphithéâtre Banque Nationale 3000, Côte-Sainte-Catherine Road Montréal, Québec H3T 2A7 ROOMS Conferences: Opening words: Breakfasts: Lunches: Breaks: Cocktail: Amphithéâtre Banque Nationale Entrance of the Amphithéatre Salle Investissement Québec Atrium Hydro-Québec Salle Investissement Québec Atrium Hydro-Québec GETTING THERE Métro: Université-de-Montréal Station Bus: line, line 129 Indoor parking: Côte-Sainte-Catherine Building Taxi: Taxi-Coop: Taxi Diamond: Atlas Taxi: See the maps of HEC Montréal and the Université-de- Montréal metro station neighborhood at pages 8 and 9 of the program. ORGANIZING INSTITUTIONS PARTNERS Funding for this conference is provided in part by the Fonds de recherche du Québec Société et culture (FRQSC) and their partners. Conference Logistical Support Industrial Alliance Research Chair's team and QICSS: David Boisclair, Renée Bouchard, with the collaboration of Philippe Valois, Catherine Blanchard Gougeon and Luc St-Pierre. Knowledge Transfer Support: Sarah Fortin, CRDCN Catering Services: Coop HEC Montréal Graphic Design: Marie-Eve Cantin, Institut de la statistique du Québec Printing: Service d impression de l Université de Montréal We also thank HEC Montréal and its Communications Directorate, who allowed the use of the rooms where the event taking place and provided constant support to the organizing committee.
3 PRESENTATION Around the world, the economic conditions of the elderly are changing rapidly. On one hand, we are seeing the new elderly reach retirement with significant financial assets, in particular among households where both spouses have extensive labor market experience. On the other hand, transformations in the workplace imply that employer pension plans are vastly different from what they were in the past, leading retirees to face potentially more risks and more complex decisions than they did. Adding to these factors, trends in population health are mixed, some forces indicating that the future elderly will be healthier while others would suggest more years spent in worse health. With governments beginning to feel the heat from these mounting pressures, and societies including employers offering retirement saving programs looking to adapt, this conference aims to shed further light on various dimensions of the well-being of the future elderly population. Enjoy the conference! The organizing committee
4 ORGANIZING INSTITUTIONS Industrial Alliance Research Chair on the Economics of Demographic Change The Industrial Alliance Research Chair on the Economics of Demographic Change relies on a collaboration between HEC Montréal, UQAM s École des sciences de la gestion (management school) and Université Laval s Faculty of social sciences to advance scientific knowledge and provide decision-makers with useful evidence on economic issues related to demographic change. It aims to document and analyze the potential effects of demographic change on standards of living, population health, and public and private finances in Québec and Canada; to understand the impact of demographic change on behaviour related to work, retirement, savings, use of the healthcare and long-term care systems, and human capital accumulation; and to contribute to the understanding and formulation of private and public policy to address the negative impacts of demographic change and sustain standards of living and quality of life while ensuring the financial security of citizens and governments. Quebec inter-university Centre for Social Statistics (QICSS) The Quebec Interuniversity Centre for Social Statistics (QICSS) was established in 2001 with the specific aim of promoting research within the field of social statistics in Quebec. It brings together Quebec universities (Université de Montréal, Concordia University, Université Laval, McGill University, Université du Québec à Montréal, Institut national de la recherche scientifique, l Université Sherbrooke and Université du Québec) in a unique partnership with Statistics Canada and Institut de la statistique du Québec. As such, the QICSS is the sole Quebec member of the Canadian Research Data Centre Network. Central to its operation is the existence of six secure computer laboratories in university settings, where researchers can have access to micro-data from the statistical agencies in the strict respect of confidentiality rules. The QICSS pursues three main objectives in the area of social statistics: support and develop cutting-edge research in the field; expand the pool of researchers and provide training to the next generation; disseminate research findings and their implications to a wider audience. 4 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6, 2016
5 ORGANIZING COMITEE David Boisclair Industrial Alliance Research Chair Benoit Dostie HEC Montréal and QICSS Raquel Fonseca Université du Québec à Montréal and Industrial Alliance Research Chair Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) CIRANO fulfills its two-fold mission of 1) research and 2) liaison and transfer of cutting-edge knowledge by: creating partnerships between researchers and small, medium-sized or large organizations, private or public; collaborating with its partners on research projects that bring together the best researchers, regardless of their university affiliation, to generate innovative solutions for these organizations while simultaneously advancing knowledge; organizing or co-organizing symposia, conferences, seminars, and workshops, making CIRANO a meeting place for researchers and practitioners to come together and exchange ideas; distributing the results of its research in the form of various publications destined to the scientific community, practitioners, and the public at large; recruiting graduate students, post-doctoral researchers, and young research professionals to participate in its projects. Guy Lacroix Université Laval and Industrial Alliance Research Chair Pierre-Carl Michaud HEC Montréal, Industrial Alliance Research Chair and CIRANO Jean Poirier QICSS SCIENTIFIC COMITEE Benoit Dostie HEC Montréal and QICSS Raquel Fonseca Université du Québec à Montréal and Industrial Alliance Research Chair Guy Lacroix Université Laval and Industrial Alliance Research Chair Jacques Légaré Université de Montréal Pierre-Carl Michaud HEC Montréal, Industrial Alliance Research Chair and CIRANO Amélie Quesnel-Vallée McGill University Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6,
6 MONDAY DECEMBER 5 8:00-8:45 Welcome Breakfast Entrance of the Amphithéâtre Salle Investissement Québec 8:45-9:00 OPENING WORDS Pierre-Carl Michaud // Industrial Alliance Research Chair and CIRANO Benoit Dostie // QICSS S. Martin Taylor // CRDCN 9:00-10:00 KEYNOTE SPEAKER Arie Kapteyn // Center for Economic and Social Research, University of Southern California Are the future elderly prepared? 10:00-10:30 Break Salle Investissement Québec 10:30-12:00 SESSION 1 Drawing Down Retirement Wealth: Interactions between Social Security Wealth and Private Retirement Savings Philip Armour // RAND Corporation Assessing the Demand for Annuities in an Undeveloped Market: Evidence from Hong Kong Joachim Inkmann // University of Melbourne Preparation for Retirement and the Risk of Out-of-pocket Long-term Care Expenses Michael Hurd // RAND Corporation 12:00-13:30 Lunch Atrium Hydro-Québec 13:30-15:30 SESSION 2 Identifying income and wealth-poor households in the euro area Philip Müller // University of Göttingen Cutting One's Coat According to One's Cloth How did the great recession affect retirement resources and expenditure goals? Jochem de Bresser // Tilburg University Home production as a substitute to market consumption? Estimating the elasticity using House price shocks from the Great Recession Jim Been // Leiden University The health and capacity to work of older men and women in Canada Tammy Schirle // Wilfrid Laurier University 15:30-16:00 Break Salle Investissement Québec 16:00-17:00 KEYNOTE SPEAKER Susan McDaniel // Prentice Institute for Global Population and Economy, University of Lethbridge Perceived Financial Well-Being of Canadians in Mid to Later Life: A Longitudinal and Multi- Method Analysis 17:00-19:00 Cocktail Atrium Hydro-Québec 6 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6, 2016
7 TUESDAY DECEMBER 6 8:00-8:30 Welcome Breakfast Entrance of the Amphithéâtre Salle Investissement Québec 8:30-10:00 SESSION 3 Poverty and Sleep in Later Life Jen-Hao Chen // University of Missouri Disability in Retirement, Home Production, and Informal Insurance Between Spouses Bertrand Achou // Université Laval Closing Down the Shop: Optimal Health and Wealth Dynamics near the End of Life Pascal St-Amour // Université de Lausanne 10:00-10:30 Break Salle Investissement Québec 10:30-12:30 SESSION 4 Intra-Household Labour Income Responses to Changes in Tax Rates among Older Workers Derek Messacar // Statistique Canada Will we repay our debts before retirement? Or did we already, but nobody noticed? Mauro Mastrogiacomo // Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Home Production and Retirement in Couples: A Panel Data Analysis Arthur van Soest // Tilburg University As You Sow, So Shall You Reap: Gender-role Attitudes and Late-life Cognition Eric Bonsang // Université Paris-Dauphine 12:30-14:00 Lunch Atrium Hydro-Québec 14:00-15:00 KEYNOTE SPEAKER Axel Börsch-Supan // Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy Well-being in old age when people care about today 15:00-15:30 Break Salle Investissement Québec 15:30-17:00 PANEL Reforming the Canada Pension Plan and the Quebec Pension Plan Bob Baldwin // Pension Consultant Tammy Schirle // Wilfrid Laurier University Pierre-Carl Michaud // HEC Montréal, Chaire Industrielle Alliance et CIRANO Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6,
8 LOCATION HEC MONTRÉAL CÔTE-SAINTE-CATHERINE BUILDING // GARDEN LEVEL 3000, Côte-Sainte-Catherine Road, Montréal (Québec) H3T 2A7 8 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6, 2016
9 MAP OF UNIVERSITÉ-DE-MONTRÉAL METRO STATION 000 SERVICE DE BUS Ligne de bus Service de bus de nuit Service 7 jours sur 7 Service fréquent (10 minutes max.) Arrêt de bus, terminus de bus Code d'arrêt Service spécial de bus en cas d'interruption du métro SERVICE DE MÉTRO Ligne bleu Accès direct au métro Réseau piétonnier souterrain Numéro civique Poste de taxis Piste cyclable mise à jour STM, janvier 2012 STM 2012 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6,
10 NOTES 10 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6, 2016
11 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6,
12 12 Future Well-Being of the Elderly December 5-6, 2016
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