Employment and Earnings Trajectories among Maryland Welfare Leavers

Transcription

1 Employment and Earnings Trajectories among Maryland Welfare Leavers Lisa Thiebaud Nicoli August 25, 2015 Presented at the 2015 National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics Workshop This project was funded by the Maryland Department of Human Resources. Family Welfare Research & Training Group 525 West Redwood Street, Baltimore, MD

2 Previous Research Most work on employment and earnings focuses on immediate outcomes Employment & earnings within the first year after exit (Acs & Loprest, 2007; Cancian, Haveman, Meyer, & Wolfe, 2002) Long-term outcomes do not usually follow the same people over time Exceptions tend to use old data from late 1990s or earlier (Meyer & Cancian, 2001; Wood, Moore, & Rangarajan, 2008; Wu, Cancian, & Meyer, 2008)

3 Research Questions What are welfare leavers employment and earnings trajectories for the first five years after exit? What characteristics are associated with successful employment and earnings trajectories?

4 Sample 5% random sample of families who left Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA), Maryland s TANF program, in each month from December 2001 through March 2009 (n=4,767 for employment, n=4,189 for earnings) Child-only cases and churners are excluded. Those with no program receipt (TANF, SNAP, or Medicaid) and no instate employment for at least one post-exit year are also excluded. Earnings analyses exclude those who did not work at all in the 5-year follow-up period.

5 Data CARES (Client Automated Resource and Eligibility System), Maryland s administrative data system for TANF Provides individual-level and case-level information on TANF program participants MABS (Maryland Automated Benefits System), Maryland s administrative data system for Unemployment Insurance

6 Methods Descriptive statistics Logistic regression (binary dependent variable) Dependent variable is either employment success or earnings success

7 Employment Trajectories Stable employment: Worked 3 or 4 quarters in each year Stable unemployment: Worked 0 or 1 quarter in each year Increasing employment: Number of quarters of employment equal to or greater than the previous year, with at least one increase Decreasing employment: Number of quarters of employment equal to or less than the previous year, with at least one decrease Unstable employment with a positive ending: Does not fit previous category and employed for at least 6 of the last 8 quarters Unstable employment with a negative ending: Does not fit a previous category and employed for no more than 2 of the last 8 quarters Inconsistent pattern: Does not fit any of the above categories

8 Employment Trajectories for Five Years after Exit Stable employment (n=1,028) 21.6% Stable unemployment (n=857) 18.0% Increasing employment (n=376) 7.9% Decreasing employment (n=539) Unstable, positive ending (n=620) Unstable, negative ending (n=640) Inconsistent pattern (n=707) 11.3% 13.0% 13.4% 14.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

9 Employment Success Stable employment 21.6% Increasing employment 7.9% Unstable employment with a positive ending 13.0% Employment success 42.5%

10 Earnings Trajectories Continuous substantial earnings: Total earnings more than the federal poverty threshold for a family of three ($19,790) in each year Continuous low earnings: Total earnings less than $7,540 (20 hrs/wk at minimum wage) in each year Increasing earnings: Each year has increased or stable earnings compared with the previous year, with at least one increase Decreasing earnings: Each year has decreased or stable earnings compared to the previous year, with at least one decrease

11 Earnings Trajectories Unstable earnings with a positive ending: Does not fit a previous category and earnings in last two years average more than $19,790 in each year Unstable earnings with a negative ending: Does not fit a previous category and earnings in last two years average less than $7,540 in each year Inconsistent pattern: Does not fit any previous category

12 Earnings Trajectories for Five Years after Exit Continuous substantial earnings (n=337) 8.0% Continuous low earnings (n=1,120) 26.7% Increasing earnings (n=394) 9.4% Decreasing earnings (n=233) 5.6% Unstable, positive ending (n=460) 11.0% Unstable, negative ending (n=818) Inconsistent pattern (n=827) 19.5% 19.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

13 Earnings Success Continuous substantial earnings 8.0% Increasing earnings 9.4% Unstable earnings with a positive ending 11.0% Earnings success 28.4%

14 Characteristics Associated with Employment Success Coefficient SE OR Age *** African-American*** Age of youngest child* Finished high school or GED*** Previous TANF receipt*** Worked in 2 years before TANF spell*** Exited prior to December 2007** Constant***

15 Characteristics Associated with Earnings Success Coefficient SE OR African-American** Finished high school or GED*** Previous TANF receipt* Earnings in 2 years before TANF spell*** Exited prior to December 2007*** Constant***

16 Conclusions Any job may not be a steppingstone to a better job Are we still in a work-first economy? Many are working but not earning enough for self-sufficiency Education is important for good employment and earnings outcomes More support for extending the lifetime limit for education while on TANF beyond 12 months

17 References Acs, G., & Loprest, P. (2007). TANF caseload composition and leavers synthesis report. Retrieved from the Urban Institute website: org/research/publication/tanf-caseloadcomposition-and-leavers-synthesis-report/view/full_report Cancian, M., Haveman, R. H., Meyer, D. R., & Wolfe, B. (2002). Before and after TANF: The economic well-being of women leaving welfare. Social Service Review, 76(4), Meyer, D.R., & Cancian, M. (2001). Ten years later: Economic well-being among those who left welfare. Journal of Applied Social Science, 25(1), Wood, R.G., Moore, Q., & Rangarajan, A. (2008). Two steps forward, one step back: The uneven economic progress of TANF recipients. Social Service Review, 82(1), Wu, C., Cancian, M., & Meyer, D. R. (2008). Standing still or moving up? Evidence from Wisconsin on the long-term employment and earnings of TANF participants. Social Work Research, 32(2),

18 Contact Information Lisa Thiebaud Nicoli, PhD Research Specialist Family Welfare Research and Training Group University of Maryland, School of Social Work (410) Thank you!

19 Employment Success Variables % Count Payee's age in 5-year increments (mean) 5.97 [29.85 years] Percent African American 79.8% (3,731) Categories of number of children 0 4.6% (217) % (2,125) % (1,397) 3 or more 21.6% (1,028) Age of youngest child in household (mean) 4.78 years Percent finished high school or GED 60.7% (2,887) Number of years of TANF receipt in the 5 years before exit (mean) 1.65 years Percent worked in 2 years prior to TANF spell 81.7% (3,897) Percent residing in Baltimore City 52.9% (2,520) Percent exited prior to December % (3,926)

20 Earnings Success Variables % Count Payee's age in 5-year increments (mean) 5.82 [29.10 years] Percent African American 80.8% (3,321) Categories of number of children 0 4.5% (188) % (1,878) % (1,229) 3 or more 21.3% (894) Age of youngest child in household (mean) 4.54 years Percent finished high school or GED 61.9% (2,588) Number of years of TANF receipt in the 5 years before exit (mean) 1.57 years Total earnings in 2 years prior to TANF spell (mean) [$14,302] Percent residing in Baltimore City 51.9% (2,173) Percent exited prior to December % (3,497)