San Bernardino City Unified School District

Transcription

1 San Bernardino City Unified School District Second Interim Report As of January 31, 2018

2 San Bernardino City Unified School District Second Interim Report As of January 31, 2018 Dale Marsden, Ed. D. Superintendent Jayne Christakos Chief Business Officer Business Services Prepared by: Janet King, Director Fiscal Services (909)

3 San Bernardino City Unified School District Second Interim Report Board of Education Abigail Medina, President Gwendolyn Rogers, Vice President Dr. Barbara Flores Michael Gallo Dr. Margaret Hill Danny Tillman Dr. Scott Wyatt District Administration Dale Marsden, Ed.D. Superintendent Dr. Harold Vollkommer Deputy Superintendent Jayne Christakos Chief Business Officer Dr. Kennon Mitchell Assistant Superintendent, Student Services Services Dr. Rachel Monarrez Assistant Superintendent, Education Dr. Perry Wiseman Assistant Superintendent, Human Resources Ginger Ontiveros Executive Director Community Engagement Joseph Paulino, Chief School Police Linda Bardere Director, Communications

4 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and The Education Code, as updated by AB1200 and AB2756, requires school districts to report on their financial condition at the time of budget adoption and after closing the books with the unaudited actuals. Two interim reports are also required during the Fiscal Year for the periods from July 1 through October 31 (first period), and from July 1 through January 31 (second period). The Second Interim Report provides an update on the financial position of the district as of January 31, This Second Interim Report and the multiyear assumptions below have been prepared including the most recent projections included in the Governor s Proposed Budget for Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) Gap funding in Fiscal Years through All other known adjustments to projected current and subsequent year revenues and expenditures have been included in this report. The District currently serves approximately 50,000 students although it has experienced declining enrollment for a number of years. Enrollment decline leveled off in with a slight increase in and a decrease in A decline in enrollment of 389 is reflected for An additional decline of 335 is projected for and again by 246 in The waiver filed to recoup the ADA lost as a result of the December 2015 terrorist attack was approved by the California Department of Education and resulted in an additional 86 ADA for the Fiscal Year. This adjustment was included in First Interim Report. The District has authorized 12 Charter Schools to operate in the district in with another to begin operations in The projected enrollment for the 12 Charters is 3,569 with projected ADA of 3,525 resulting in an average ADA to enrollment ratio for District Charters of 93.47%. The total LCFF funding attributable to these Charters is estimated at $35.9 million. ADA to Enrollment Trending CBEDS to P2 ADA Enrollment P 2 ADA 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30, Est Est *ADA to Enrollment ratio does not include ADA generated from NPS, Extended Year Special Ed or Community Schools. Enrollment ratio is calculated using October CBEDS and P-2 Budget Assumptions Page 1 1

5 Revenues San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) LCFF funding is the primary source of district funding and is derived from student average daily attendance. Additional funds are provided for those students that are low socio-economic, English Language Learners and Foster Youth. These students (quantified as an unduplicated pupil count) comprise approximately 90% of the student population at San Bernardino City Unified. The growth factors and COLA applied to the calculation of the Local Control Funding Formula target funding for the current and subsequent years are as follows: Fiscal Year COLA 1.56% 2.51% 2.41% Gap Funding % 44.97% 100.0% 100.0% LCFF Funding Amount Increase over prior year $7.3M $27.5M $9.8M Unduplicated Pupil Count 3 Year Average 90.15% 89.96% 90.34% The COLA used in the LCFF calculation is based upon Department of Finance Projections. Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) revenue is projected by including current ADA projections for The District has experienced fluctuations in ADA over the last 3 years and has projected a decline in enrollment for and a one half of one percent decline in each of the subsequent years LCFF Funding a. LCFF Target Funding in $527,335,132 b Floor Funding $497,251,407 c. LCFF Gap (a-b) $ 30,083,725 d. Gap 43.19% $ 13,528,651 e LCFF (b+d) $510,780,058 f. Base funding $357,446,938 g. Supplemental and Concentration (incl. TIIG) $153,334,000 Budget Assumptions Page 2 2

6 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and LCFF Base and Supplemental Funding Under the LCFF, the District must ensure that supplemental and concentration funds are used to increase or improve services to students that are eligible for free and reduced meals, English Language Learner and Foster Youth. The chart below illustrates the base funding applicable to all students and the additional supplemental and concentration funding for low socio-economic, English Learner and Foster Youth that are represented at an unduplicated count of 90.15% of the district student population. In Millions The Supplemental/Concentration funding for prior years is based upon actual expenditures for those years. The and beyond funding is based upon projected expenditures. Reductions to LCFF for Redevelopment Agency (RDA) funds are included at $877,570 for the Budget and subsequent fiscal years. By law, these dollars can be used for land acquisition, facility reconstruction, remodeling, deferred maintenance and routine maintenance. Special Education is funded based upon the number of children with disabilities receiving special education services for both Federal and State Special Education programs. These revenues have been adjusted for changes in COLA and Special Education ADA. Budget Assumptions Page 3 3

7 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and State Categorical programs were reflected at the current level for and applied a 2.51% COLA for Fiscal Year and a 2.41% COLA for Fiscal Year where applicable. Federal programs were projected to stay at current funding levels and no COLA was applied to this revenue. Funding Source Federal (Unrestricted and Restricted Sources) $61,506,451 $50,575,218 $50,575,218 State (Unrestricted and Restricted Sources) $93,280,823 $88,681,504 $75,577,999 Under LCFF funding the District receives a funding adjustment to implement class size reduction for TK-3 to 24:1. The funding is phased in proportion to the LCFF gap funding percentage. Full funding is projected to be reached in Fiscal Year Unrestricted Lottery Revenue of $7,206,732 is budgeted at $146/ADA and Restricted Lottery of $2,369,336 is budgeted at $48/ADA in each of the three years. Total General Fund Revenues Other State Revenue, $93.3, 14% Other Local Revenue, $6.4, 1% Federal Revenue, $61.5, 9% LCFF Sources- Supplemental/ Concentration $ % LCFF Sources - Base, $356.7, 53% Total LCFF Funding $510.0 Million Total General Fund Revenue - $671.2 Million Budget Assumptions Page 4 4

8 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and Expenditures Step and column increases for eligible staff are included in the current and subsequent fiscal years. These costs are projected at 1.7% for Certificated and 0.9% for Classified qualifying positions. Statutory Employee Benefits have been adjusted for changes in salaries for all bargaining units and salary schedules. Under the LCFF, Districts are required to make progress each year in reducing class size to 24:1 when full funding is reached. The reduction must come in proportion to the growth in the Local Control Funding Formula each year. Class sizes have been decreased to an average of 24:1 in Fiscal Year The estimated Grade Span Adjustment funding for Fiscal Year is $11,497,718 with full funding of $12,026,675 projected in Fiscal Year The cost of implementing class size reduction exceeds the revenues received by the State for this purpose. State Teachers Retirement System and Public Employee Retirement Systems are both projecting significant increases to employer contribution rates in the current and subsequent fiscal years. SBCUSD Projected Increase in STRS and PERS Costs $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $ Increase in STRS Cost Increase in PERS Cost through STRS Rate 8.25% to 10.73% 12.58% 14.43% 16.28% 18.13% Increase in STRS Cost $5.92 Million $4.25 Million $4.87 Million $5.21 Million $ 5.26 Million PERS Rate 11.44% to 11.87% 13.89% 15.53% 18.10% 20.80% Increase in PERS Cost $1.02 Million $1.37 Million $1.69 Million $1.82 Million $1.93Million Annual Increase $6.94 Million $5.62 Million $6.56 Million $7.03 Million $7.19 Million Budget Assumptions Page 5 5

9 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and Health and Welfare Medical costs increased by 6.23% in Fiscal Year These costs are projected to increase in each of the subsequent years as follows: o Fiscal Year % $ 3,599,615 o Fiscal Year % $ 6,477,820 Estimated costs of $100,000 to offer benefits to non-permanent employees under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are included in Fiscal Year and beyond. This is to ensure compliance with the ACA requirement to offer minimum coverage. Other Post-Employment Benefits (OPEB) included at a rate of 1.044% have been applied to gross salary and an additional rate of 1.207% applied to fund post-retirement benefits in the amount of $ 8,050,419. This aligns with most recent actuarial report. The Local Control Accountability Plan and the costs related to the plan have been included in the Fiscal Year budget and subsequent years. Utility costs are projected to include a portion of energy savings for Fiscal Year and subsequent years. Some savings will be used to continue purchasing equipment to further reduce energy costs. The Deferred Maintenance program has been folded into the Local Control Funding Formula and the Deferred Maintenance match is no longer required under the Local Control Funding Formula. The District continues to allocate funding of $2.0 million for this purpose which was the level of funding previously provided by the state. These funds have been included in Fund 14 Deferred Maintenance Fund to dedicate resources to the major maintenance of our schools. Routine Repair and Maintenance is required at the lesser of funding level or 3% of total General Fund expenditures. It is funded at $17.3 million for The contribution is projected to increase to the full 3% in and beyond. Textbooks and instructional support materials had been included in at $14.0 million, however the purchase has been delayed until as part of the Local Control Accountability Plan. Budget Assumptions Page 6 6

10 San Bernardino City Unified School District Summary of Second Interim Assumptions Fiscal Years , and General Fund Contributions to Special Programs Program Actual Projected Projected Projected Special Education $36,434,983 $40,496,676 $45,460,342 $49,024,226 Routine Repair and Maintenance $17,728,666 $17,333,290 $20,044,944 $20,230,681 Pre-K Academy One Time Portable Install $ 495,224 $ 250,000 $ 0 $ 0 Child Development Fund Fund 12 $ 616,622 $ 1,501,324 $ 1,501,324 $ 1,501,324 Total $55,275,495 $59,581,290 $67,006,610 $70,756,231 General Fund Unrestricted General Fund Balance Projected Projected Projected Unrestricted General Fund Balance $ 66,123,392 $ 65,572,106 $ 62,942,437 $ 45,350,680 Reserves for Stores/Revolving Cash $ 756,915 $ 321,127 $ 321,127 $ 321,127 Assigned Textbooks Targeted School Support for Progress (TSSP) Reserve for deficit spending Reserve for Economic Uncertainties 2% Unassigned/Undesignated $ 7,000,000 $ 14,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ -0- $ 7,600,000 $ 7,600,000 $ 3,800,000 $ -0- $ 23,000,000 $ 8,791,757 $ 8,791,757 $ -0- $ 12,600,000 $ 13,600,000 $ 14,100,000 $ 14,200,000 $ 15,166,477 $ 21,259,222 $ 30,929,553 $ 30,829,553 Budget Assumptions Page 7 7

11 San Bernardino City Unified School District Second Interim Report Summary of Facts and Assumptions Assumptions Adopted Budget Second Interim Projected Projected COLA 1.56% 1.56% 2.51% 2.41% LCFF GAP 43.97% 44.97% % % Local Revenue (Taxes) $ 24,332,817 $ 27,238,573 $ 27,738,573 $ 27,238,573 Pass through of Local Revenue (Taxes) to Charters $ (1,529,342) $ (1,678,253) $ 1,738,155 $ 1,749,518 EPA Entitlement Percentage 23.70% 23.50% 22.50% 22.50% Enrollment Current Year CBEDS 49,363 49,451 49,116 48,870 Unduplicated Count 43,849 44,674 44,371 44,149 Unduplicated Percentage (Rolling Average) 89.65% 90.15% 89.96% 90.34% ADA/Enrollment Percentage 94.09% 94.53% 94.51% 94.51% Projected ADA P 2 Grades K 3 15, , , , Grades , , , , Grades 7 8 6, , , , Grades , , , , Total 46, , , , ADA for County Office of Education (COE) Programs Total District ADA including COE Programs 46, , , , Funding Per ADA (at full implementation ) Grades TK 3 Base Grant $ 7,193 $ 7,193 $ 7,374 $ 7,552 Grade Span Adjustment $ 748 $ 748 $ 767 $ 785 Total Base Funding $ 7,941 $ 7,941 $ 8,141 $ 8,337 Supplemental $ 1,588 $ 1,588 $ 1,628 $ 1,667 Concentration $ 3,971 $ 3,971 $ 4,071 $ 4,169 Total Funding TK 3 $ 13,500 $ 13,500 $ 13,840 $ 14,173 Grades 4 6 Base Grant $ 7,301 $ 7,301 $ 7,484 $ 7,664 Total Base Funding $ 7,301 $ 7,301 $ 7,484 $ 7,664 Supplemental $ 1,460 $ 1,460 $ 1,497 $ 1,533 Concentration $ 3,651 $ 3,651 $ 3,742 $ 3,832 Total Funding 4 6 $ 12,412 $ 12,412 $ 12,723 $ 13,029 Grades 7 8 Base Grant $ 7,518 $ 7,518 $ 7,707 $ 7,893 Total Base Funding $ 7,518 $ 7,518 $ 7,707 $ 7,893 Supplemental $ 1,504 $ 1,504 $ 1,541 $ 1,579 Concentration $ 3,759 $ 3,759 $ 3,854 $ 3,947 Total Funding 7 8 $ 12,781 $ 12,781 $ 13,102 $ 13,419 Grades 9 12 Base $ 8,712 $ 8,712 $ 8,931 $ 9,146 Grade Span Adjustment $ 227 $ 227 $ 232 $ 238 Total Base Funding $ 8,939 $ 8,939 $ 9,163 $ 9,384 Supplemental $ 1,788 $ 1,788 $ 1,833 $ 1,877 Concentration $ 4,470 $ 4,470 $ 4,582 $ 4,692 Total Funding 9 12 $ 15,197 $ 15,197 $ 15,578 $ 15,953 8

12 San Bernardino City Unified School District Second Interim Report Summary of Facts and Assumptions Assumptions Adopted Budget Second Interim Projected Projected LCFF Target Revenues $ 526,783,229 $ 527,335,132 $ 538,321,421 $ 548,143,480 LCFF Funded Revenues $ 510,210,430 $ 510,780,058 $ 538,321,421 $ 548,143,480 Total LCFF Sources LCFF Base $ 357,746,605 $ 357,446,938 $ 382,236,849 $ 388,723,836 Increase Over Prior Year (Base) $ 7,124,367 $ 7,546,698 $ 24,789,911 $ 6,486,987 LCFF Supplemental & Concentration $ 131,966,307 $ 132,835,602 $ 135,587,054 $ 138,922,126 Increase Over Prior Year (Supplemental) $ 2,162,148 $ (267,654) $ 2,751,452 $ 3,335,072 LCFF Add Ons (TIIG and Transportation) $ 20,497,518 $ 20,497,518 $ 20,497,518 $ 20,497,518 Total LCFF Sources $ 510,210,430 $ 510,780,058 $ 538,321,421 $ 548,143,480 Lottery Unrestricted per ADA $ 144 $ 146 $ 146 $ 146 Lottery Restricted per ADA $ 45 $ 48 $ 48 $ 48 Expenditures Adjusted for Consumer Price Index (CPI) $ 651,186,528 $ 677,679,404 $ 702,960,488 $ 706,663,171 Step & Column Certificated $ 4,549,627 $ 4,626,971 $ 4,705,629 $ 4,750,531 Step & Longevity Classified $ 734,176 $ 740,784 $ 747,451 $ 745,457 Instructional Days Contribution to Special Education $ 39,992,833 $ 40,496,676 $ 45,460,342 $ 49,024,226 Routine Repair and Maintenance Contribution $ 17,300,000 $ 17,333,290 $ 20,044,944 $ 20,230,681 Contribution to Pre K Academy $ $ 250,000 $ $ Total Contribution to Restricted Programs $ 57,292,833 $ 58,079,966 $ 65,505,286 $ 69,254,907 Reserve for Economic Uncertainties $ 13,100,000 $ 13,600,000 $ 14,100,000 $ 14,150,000 Reserve for Economic Uncertainties Percentage 2% 2% 2% 2% Health & Welfare Increase 6.23% 6.23% 6.50% 9.00% Payroll Expense Rate State Teachers' Retirement System (STRS) 14.43% 14.43% 16.28% 18.13% STRS Cost Increase Over Prior Year $ 4,872,542 $ 5,118,237 $ 5,213,106 $ 5,257,580 Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) 15.53% 15.53% 17.70% 20.00% PERS Cost Increase Over Prior Year $ 1,685,384 $ 1,775,143 $ 1,817,569 $ 1,931,959 Social Security (OASDI) 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% Medicare 1.45% 1.45% 1.45% 1.45% Unemployment Insurance 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% Workers' Compensation 1.78% 1.78% 2.00% 2.00% Other Post Employment Benefit Retiree 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% Other Post Employment Benefit 1.21% 1.21% 1.21% 1.21% Mandate Reimbursement One Time Funding 0 $ 6,890,584 $13,700,000 0 District Sponsored Independent Charter Schools District FTE by Bargaining Unit Certificated Classified Sworn Police Officers Management

13 LCFF Calculator v18.2c released January 12, 2018 San Bernardino City Unified (67876) 2nd Interim Full Fun LOCAL CONTROL FUNDING FORMULA CALCULATE LCFF TARGET Unduplicated as % of Enrollment Grades TK 3 Grades 4 6 Grades 7 8 Grades 9 12 Subtract NSS NSS Allowance TOTAL BASE Targeted Instructional Improvement Block Grant Home to School Transportation Small School District Bus Replacement Program LOCAL CONTROL FUNDING FORMULA (LCFF) TARGET Funded Based on Target Formula (based on prior year P 2 certification) ECONOMIC RECOVERY TARGET PAYMENT CALCULATE LCFF FLOOR Current year Funded ADA times Base per ADA Current year Funded ADA times Other RL per ADA Necessary Small School Allowance at rates Categoricals Floor Adjustments Categorical Program Entitlement Rate per ADA * cy ADA Less Fair Share Reduction Non CDE certified New Charter: District PY rate * CY ADA Beginning in , prior year LCFF gap funding per ADA * cy AD LOCAL CONTROL FUNDING FORMULA (LCFF) FLOOR CALCULATE LCFF PHASE IN ENTITLEMENT LOCAL CONTROL FUNDING FORMULA TARGET LOCAL CONTROL FUNDING FORMULA FLOOR LCFF Need (LCFF Target less LCFF Floor, if positive) Current Year Gap Funding ECONOMIC RECOVERY PAYMENT Miscellaneous Adjustments LCFF Entitlement before Minimum State Aid provision v18.2c v18.2c v18.2c v18.2c COLA 0.000% COLA 1.560% COLA 2.510% COLA 2.410% 3 yr average 90.51% 90.51% yr average 90.15% 90.15% yr average 89.96% 89.96% yr average 90.34% 90.34% ADA Base Gr Span Supp Concen TARGET ADA Base Gr Span Supp Concen TARGET ADA Base Gr Span Supp Concen TARGET ADA Base Gr Span Supp Concen TARGET 16, , ,416 1, ,520,299 15, , ,432 1, ,902,022 15, , ,465 1, ,932,894 15, , ,506 1, ,207,181 11, ,189 1,301 1, ,124,118 11, ,301 1,316 1, ,308,454 11, ,484 1,347 1, ,595,884 11, ,664 1,385 1, ,860,411 6, ,403 1,340 1,314 68,426,762 6, ,518 1,355 1,321 69,122,709 6, ,707 1,387 1,347 70,379,973 6, ,893 1,426 1,395 71,718,680 12, , ,593 1, ,611,969 12, , ,612 1, ,504,426 12, , ,649 1, ,915,155 12, , ,696 1, ,859,688 47, ,944,508 14,744,847 67,645,247 66,348, ,683,147 46, ,190,727 14,569,543 67,388,977 65,688, ,837,614 46, ,314,864 14,921,985 68,772,053 66,815, ,823,903 46, ,551,148 15,172,688 70,234,623 68,687, ,645,962 16,843,511 16,843,511 16,843,511 16,843,511 3,654,007 3,654,007 3,654,007 3,654, ,180, ,335, ,321, ,143,480 FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE 1/2 5/8 3/ $ Rate ADA Rate ADA Rate ADA Rate ADA 5, , ,175,348 5, , ,544,385 5, , ,932,248 5, , ,215, , ,003, , ,960, , ,953, , ,932,569 71,178,274 71,178,274 71,178,274 71,178,274 $ 3, , ,635,009 $ 3, , ,568,327 $ 4, , ,629,527 4, , ,747, ,992, ,251, ,693, ,073, ,180, ,335, ,321, ,143, ,992, ,251, ,693, ,073,730 56,188,190 30,083,725 28,628, % 31,508, % 13,528, % 28,628, % 503,501, ,780, ,321, ,143,480 CALCULATE STATE AID Transition Entitlement Local Revenue (including RDA) Gross State Aid CALCULATE MINIMUM STATE AID RL/Charter Gen BG adjusted for ADA NSS Allowance (deficited) Minimum State Aid Adjustments Less Current Year Property Taxes/In Lieu Subtotal State Aid for Historical RL/Charter General BG Categorical funding from Charter Categorical Block Grant adjusted for ADA Minimum State Aid Guarantee CHARTER SCHOOL MINIMUM STATE AID OFFSET (effective ) Local Control Funding Formula Floor plus Funded Gap Minimum State Aid plus Property Taxes including RDA Offset Minimum State Aid Prior to Offset Total Minimim State Aid with Offset TOTAL STATE AID Additional State Aid (Additional SA) LCFF Phase In Entitlement (before COE transfer, Choice & Charter CHANGE OVER PRIOR YEAR LCFF Entitlement PER ADA PER ADA CHANGE OVER PRIOR YEAR BASIC AID STATUS (school districts only) LCFF SOURCES INCLUDING EXCESS TAXES State Aid Property Taxes net of in lieu Charter in Lieu Taxes LCFF pre COE, Choice, Supp 503,501, ,780, ,321, ,143,480 (39,788,339) (25,560,320) (25,500,418) (25,489,055) 463,712, ,219, ,821, ,654, Rate ADA N/A Rate ADA N/A Rate ADA N/A Rate ADA N/A 5, , ,179,192 5, , ,504,806 5, , ,885,349 5, , ,148,041 (39,788,339) (25,560,320) (25,500,418) (25,489,055) 214,390, ,944, ,384, ,658,986 71,178,274 71,178,274 71,178,274 71,178, ,569, ,122, ,563, ,837, ,712, ,219, ,821, ,654, ,501, ,780, ,321, ,143, % 31,247, % 7,279, % 27,541, % 9,822,059 10,600 10,911 11,528 11, % % % % 293 Non Basic Aid Non Basic Aid Non Basic Aid Non Basic Aid Increase Increase Increase Increase % 19,125, ,712, % 21,507, ,219, % 27,601, ,821, % 9,833, ,654, % 12,122,057 39,788, % (14,228,019) 25,560, % (59,902) 25,500, % (11,363) 25,489, % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.62% 31,247, ,501, % 7,279, ,780, % 27,541, ,321, % 9,822, ,143,480 3/13/20181:50 PM Calculator 10

14 Projected 1. Total Revenues $647.1 $671.2 $681.5 $ Expenditures, Transfers, and Interfund Transfers $628.2 $677.7 $703.0 $ Excess/(Deficit) Revenues Less Expenditures $ 18.9 ($ 6.5) ($ 21.5) ($ 30.6) 4. Beginning Fund Balance $ 83.1 $ $ 98.2 $ Audit Adjustment/Restatements $ 0 $ 2.7 $ 0 $ 0 6. Ending Fund Balance $102.0 $ 98.2 $ 76.7 $ Reserves for Stores/Revolving Cash and Prepaid Expense $ 0.7 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ Restricted Ending Balances $ 35.9 $ 32.7 $ 13.8 $ Reserve for Economic Uncertainties $ 12.6 $ 13.6 $ 14.1 $ Assigned - Targeted Support for School Progress (TSSP) $ 7.6 $ 7.6 $ 3.8 $ Reserve for deficit spending and TSSP (Future Years) $ 23.0 $ 8.8 $ 8.8 $ Unappropriated Ending Fund Balance $ 15.2 $ 21.2 $ 30.9 $ Multi Year Projections Combined General Fund Unaudited Actuals Projected Projected 7. Components of the Ending Fund Balance: 12. Assigned Textbooks Social Studies, Health, Foreign Language and Visual and Performing Arts (VAPA) Delayed from $ 7.0 $ 14.0 $ 5.0 $ -0-11

15 Multi Year Projections Unrestricted General Fund Unaudited Actuals Projected Projected Projected 1. Total Revenues $473.2 $475.6 $500.9 $ Expenditures, Transfers, and Interfund Transfers $459.2 $479.0 $503.5 $ Excess/(Deficit) Revenues Less Expenditures $ 14.0 ($ 3.4) ($ 2.6) ($ 17.6) 4. Beginning Fund Balance $ 52.1 $ 66.2 $ 65.6 $ Audit Adjustment/Restatements $ 0 $ 2.8 $ 0 $ 0 6. Ending Fund Balance $ 66.1 $ 65.6 $ 62.9 $ Components of the Ending Fund Balance: 8. Reserves for Stores/Revolving Cash and Prepaid Expense $ 0.7 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ Reserve for Economic Uncertainties $ 12.6 $ 13.6 $ 14.1 $ Assigned - Targeted Support for School Progress(TSSP) $ 7.6 $ 7.6 $ 3.8 $ Assigned Textbooks Social Studies, Health, Foreign Language and Visual and Performing Arts (VAPA) Delayed from $ 7.0 $ 14.0 $ 5.0 $ Reserve for deficit spending and TSSP (Future Years) $ 23.0 $ 8.8 $ 8.8 $ Unappropriated Ending Fund Balance $ 15.2 $ 21.2 $ 30.9 $

16 Multi Year Projections Restricted General Fund Unaudited Actuals Projected Projected Projected 1. Total Revenues $173.9 $195.6 $180.5 $ Expenditures, Transfers, and Interfund Transfers $169.0 $198.7 $199.4 $ Excess/(Deficit) Revenues Less Expenditures $ 4.9 ($ 3.1) ($ 18.9) ($ 13.1) 4. Beginning Fund Balance $ 31.0 $ 35.9 $ 32.7 $ Audit Adjustment/Restatements $ ($ 0.1) $ $ Ending Fund Balance $ 35.9 $ 32.7 $ 13.8 $ Components of the Ending Fund Balance: 8. Reserve for Restricted Programs $ 35.9 $ 32.7 $ 13.8 $

17 Gap Funding Percentage at 1st Interim 43.19% 66.12% 64.92% 2. Gap Funding Percentage at 2 nd Interim 44.97% 100.0% 100.0% 3. Unduplicated Count Rolling Average at 1 st Interim 89.84% 89.34% 89.40% 4. Unduplicated Count Rolling Average at 2 nd Interim 90.15% 89.96% 90.34% 5. Projected P-2 ADA at 1 st Interim 46, , , *Projected P-2 ADA at 2 nd Interim 46, , , Change in Total LCFF Funding over 1 st Interim $342,318 $17,604,347 $20,986, New - One Time Mandate Funding $6,890,584 $13,700,000 ($13,700,000) Changes since First Interim * is funded at prior year ADA of 46,812 due to decline in the current year 14

18 Second Interim Multi Year Projection 15

19 Est Est Enrollment 49,889 50,242 50,211 49,840 49,451 49,116 48,870 P-2 ADA 47,076 47,491 47,498 46,944 46,744 46,420 46,187 ADA to Enrollment Trending Enrollment P-2 ADA 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30, Est Est 16

20 STRS/PERS costs through $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $ Increase in STRS Cost Increase in PERS Cost Cumculative Increase STRS Rate 8.25% 8.88% 10.73% 12.58% 14.43% 16.28% 18.13% 19.10% 19.50% 19.50% 19.50% Increase in STRS $ Cost - $1,932,000 $3,991,100 $4,247,857 $4,872,542 $5,213,106 $5,257,580 $2,826,689 $1,185,461 $0 $0 $29,526,334 PERS Rate 11.44% 11.77% 11.87% 13.89% 15.53% 17.70% 20.00% 22.70% 23.70% 24.30% 26.80% Increase in PERS Cost $275,528 $283,500 $460,100 $1,365,237 $1,685,384 $1,817,569 $1,931,959 $2,303,206 $2,882,200 $521,078 $2,190,698 $15,716,459 Annual Increase $275,528 $2,215,500 $4,451,200 $5,613,094 $6,557,926 $7,030,675 $7,189,539 $5,129,895 $4,067,661 $521,078 $2,190,698 $45,242,

21 10 Year Comparison of Actual and Projected Revenues and Expenditures through Revenue 18

22 19

23 20

24 21

25 22

26 23

27 24

28 25

29 26

30 27

31 28

32 29

33 30

34 31

35 32

36 33

37 34

38 35

39 36

40 37

41 38

42 39

43 40

44 41

45 42

46 43

47 44

48 45

49 46

50 47

51 48

52 49

53 50

54 51

55 52

56 53

57 54

58 55

59 56

60 57

61 58

62 59

63 60

64 61

65 62

66 63

67 64

68 65

69 66

70 67

71 68

72 69

73 70

74 71

75 72

76 73

77 74

78 75

79 76

80 77

81 78

82 79

83 80

84 81

85 82

86 83

87 84

88 85

89 86

90 87

91 88

92 89

93 90

94 91

95 92

96 93

97 94

98 95

99 96

100 97

101 98

102 99

103 100

104 101

105 102

106 103

107 104

108 105

109 106

110 107

111 108

112 109

113 110

114 111

115 112

116 113

117 114

118 115

119 116

120 117

121 118

122 San Bernardino City Unified Cash Flow Second Interim Major Range Description Fund 01 GENERAL FUND Fund Summary Beginning Month Cash Revenue LCFF Principal Apportionment (8010 to 8019) LCFF Property Taxes (8020 to 8079) LCFF MisceRaneous Funds (8080 to 8099) Federal Revenue (8100 to 8299) Other State Revenue (8300 to 8599) Other Local Revenue {8600 to 8799) Total Revenue Expenditure Certificated Salary(1000 to 1999) Classified Salary (2000 to 2999) Employee Benefit (3000 to 3999) Books and Supplies (4000 to 4999) SeMces and Operatrlg Expenditures {5000 to 5999) Capital OuUay (6000 to 6999) Other Outgo (71 00 to 7499) lnterfund Transfers Out (7600 to 7629) Total Expenditure Revenue Less Expense Assets REVOLVING CASH ACCOUNT (9130) ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE (9210) DUE FROM OTHER FUNDS (931 0) STORES (9320) Stores re-valuation (9329) PREPAID EXPENDITURES 19330) Total Assets Uabilities CURRENT LIABILITIES (9510) EMPLOYEE PAID PERS SUSP ACCT 19552) EMPLOYER PERS SUSPENSE ACCOUNT 19562) EMPLOYER H&W SUSPENSE ACCOUNT 19564) EMPLOYER U.l. SUSPENSE ACCOUNT (9565) EMPLOYER W.C. SUSPENSE ACCOUNT (9566) EMPLOYER ARS SUSPENSE ACCOUNT (9568) EMPLOYER OTH BENEFIT SUSP ACCT 19569) Retiree H & W (pay as you go) (9577) Employer OPES Suspense AcCOUlt (9578) SALES TAX LIABILITY ACCOUNT 19580) DUE TO OTHER FUNDS 19610) OTHER TEMPORARY LOANS 19648) DEFERRED REVENUE 19650) Total Liabilities Balance Sheet Net Increase/Decrease Total Ending Cash Balance Beginning Balance 7/ , ,499, ,149, , , , ,405, Month 7/ ,503, ,004, ,59< , ,300, M ,759, ,616.81) 4,720, ,303, , ,640, , ,473.68) 10,732, ,027, Month 8/31/ ,161, ,004, ,007,648.15) 818, ,985, , ,960, ,999, ,915, ,951, ,000, ,889, ,690.57) 43,734, ,774,409.46) 13,149,843.44) 3,149, Month 9/ ,293, ,983, ,769.92) 12,901, ,583, , ,326, ,973, ,913, ,684, ,966, ,812, ,148, , , ) 54,212, ,114, ,117, ,117, Month 10/ ,586, ,807, ,998.29) 14,373,893.66) 599, , ,299, ,208, ,741, ,941, , 707, ,803, , ,891.77) 695, ,948, (17,648,816.51) 11,576, , ,011, Month 11/30/ ,898, ,807, ,650, ,478.62) 516, ,567, , ,547, ,089, ,042, ,089, ,916, ,100, , , ,636, ,088,945.53) 3,806, ,806, Month ,288, ,969, ,309, ,263.89) 10,094, ,727, ,605, ,620, ,164, ,534, ,059, ,632, ,910, , ,351.40) 48,366, ,254, , , Month 1/31/ ,816, ,807, ,620, ,711.40) 2,784, ,333, , ,703, ,560, ,089, ,530, ,286, ,136, , (432, ) 51,462, ,953.62) 16,250.00) ) Month 2128/ ,143, ,862, '778, ,349.91) 1111,022.79) 4,857, , ,639, ,445, ,009, ,862, ,«2, ,387, , ,351.40) 45,592, ,572.14) 1,058,943.58,,,.,, 62,277, ,047, ,995,886.71) 12,080, , , , , ,224, ,366, ,730, , ,020.33) 10.00) 62,277, ) 18,271.42) 17, ,446.34) 13, (41,133.32) 37, ,964.66) ) 113,642.53) , , , , , , , , ,104.97) 150, , , , (406,962.54) 22, , ,524, , , (294,466.71) 571, (257,122.93) 1318,951.71) 510, ,108.79) (4,465,770.12) 4,510, ,770.12) 304, , ,646.61) 114,496.58) 114,691.85) 16, ,369.21) 115,417.75) 31, (14,755.51) 114,933.13) 30, ,792.66) 129,230.80) 61, , ) 1519,730.50) (1,061,675.19) 1,123, ,202.26) (556, ) 1 '125, ,092.33) 17,542,848.93) 17,438,316.38) 14,557, , , , ) ) 14,369.45) 4, ,530.80) 10, ,749.49) 14, ,277.63) 112,731.98) 15, , ,966.81) 12,644.13) , ,177.93) 16,670.04) 13,989.51) (5,050.13) 112,399.60) (5,835.11) 55, ,735.05) 15,735.05) 152,197.44) 1282,229.58) 1546,247.28) 592, ,816.54) 1288,073.22) 1287,694.78) 1288,029.80) (1,097,033.21) 17,073,415.79) 13,981, ,381, , , ,187.44) 1343,407.95) 1697,010.30) 738, ,048.64) 1368,004.20) 1356,909.31) 1353,046.82) 116,400,870.24) 116,224,200.18) 31,756, ,340, , , (13,849.81) (499.18) 9, ,211.32) 1, ) 3, ,839.84) 110,515.94) 8, (3,842.36) 14,246.82) 19, , ,876, ,876, ,876, ,000, ,800, ,000.00) 1500,000.00) 7,025, ,025, ,025, , 179, ,.;46?.,:, 36:0:9:';, 64~1:C. 3oc5 --,;6';;, 0;::9;':3,;,;23~7;::.6;;.9--;:;9';;, 9;;':3;":8,;0;84~2~.6;';0--~3~, 0~50~,~5~19:'; ,;-'3~2;;.7 '=806~. 56;;;---<"'1f', 0:;';31;;, 7:.;'54::';.;';89::;1 ;;1';:,9:;'0;'8;': 0;;;80';;. 86;;----';:12;-;4';;, 4~08;';. 84;;;---'12':;5~ 7-;':66;';'";95:;;1;':.0;;21:-_,13":;2:;',3';:7;';;9':':;10';;;1;;:. 7;2.4):--;;:':6;':3,;;;32;,"2~ 1~26':;. 96~_...>:12:;', 9';:1;';;6':";;51:,;1;: 2c;;:51:--;:'1;', 5;;:39;, 5:;o2~9.:;':24:;----,=..;I~O.;';OO~)--;f7-f1 ~ 1c;79':; 8:,:7~5.,167---:f1:: 5:,:39';, 5;::2~9.~247- (46,369,641.35) ,237.69) 13,821,625.64) 8,960, ,478, ,274, ,914,330.86) 334, ,334, ,439, (63,199,387.72) 3,130, ,539,529.24) 211, ,773,906.46) (1,328,529.24) 133,342,299.09) 127,867,647.15) 21,292, ,688, ) 2,389, ,528, ,673,284.48) 1617,872.56) 46,843, ,087, (71,049,534.69) 7,072, ,430,564.12) 211, ,243, ) 160,219,564.12) 118,161, ,293, ,586, ,898, ,288, ,816, ,143, ,525, ,368, ,456, ,407, ,479, ,260, ,059, Month 3/31/ ,525, ,791, ,182.43) 1100,386.50) 6,970, ,762, , ,398, ,750, ,350, ,421, ,485, ,307, ,388, , , ,889, ,509, , ,106.57) , Month 4/30/ ,368, ,194, ,278,623.29) (131,274.65) 774, ,091, , ,873, ,750, ,257, ,421, ,738, ,351, , , ,225, ,351,624.06) 60, , Month 5/31/ ,456, ,194, ,755.06) 1131,274.65) 5,421, ,659, , ,458, ,750, ,257, ,182, ,480, ,307, ,468, (139,065.77) 57,308, ,850, ) 127, ,749.59) , Month 6130/ ,407, ,811, ,996.69) 12,392, ,913, , ,275, ,750, ,769, ,831, ,725, ,917, , ,131.54) 87,333, ,942, , ,570.26) 61, , , Accruals (3,744,930.89) 1270,271.33) 13,167, ,102,699.01) 297, ,346, ,750, , ,284, ,463, ,312, ,491, ,066,170.91) 1,396, ,237, ,891,034.88) Adjustments 211, , Total 486,492, ,238, ,424.00) 61,506, ,280, ,377, ,210, ,180, ,209, ,562, ,016, ,875, ,980, (1,647,188.60) 1,501, ,679, ,469,272.09) 211, ,499, ,149, , , , ,405, Ending Cash plus Accruals and Adjustments 158,479, ,930.89) 1270,271.33) 13,167, ,102,699.01) 297, ,346, ,750, , ,284, ,463, ,312, ,491, ,066,170.91) 1,396, ,237, ,891,034.88) 211, , Budget 486,492, ,238, ,424.00) 61, 506,451. 3~ 93,280, ,377, ,210, ,180, ,209, ,562, ,016, ,875, ,980, ,647,188.60) 1,501, ,679,

123 120

124 121

125 122

126 123

127 124

128 125

129 126

130 127

131 128

132 129

133 130

134 131

135 132

136 133

137 134

138 135

139 136

140 137

141 138

142 139

143 140

144 141

145 142

146 143

147 144

148 145

149 146

150 147

151 Copyright 2018 School Services of California, Inc. Volume 38 For Publication Date: March 09, 2018 No. 5 UCLA Anderson Forecast Shares Good but Cautious News In its March 2018 quarterly report, the UCLA Anderson Forecast portends growth both for the nation and for California but cautions that there are risks to the prediction and to the U.S. and state economies overall. Entitled Regime Change, the Forecast uses the metaphor as a double entendre to explain the tidal shifts in economic fundamentals as well as the effects that the decisions of the nation s new leadership are having and will continue to have on the economy. With regard to the U.S. economy, the UCLA economists predict that gross domestic product (GDP), the widely accepted indicator of economic health, will reach 2.9% in 2018 but slow to 2.6% in 2019, followed by a sluggish 1.6% in They suggest that the reason for the slowdown is that the economy is currently enjoying full employment and that the growth in 2018 is largely attributable to spending by businesses to purchase equipment, intellectual property, and structures. These upfront investments will provide a short-term stimulus to the economy, which will fizzle out by While wages will continue to increase steadily through 2020, the Forecast predicts housing to remain relatively flat, primarily because of the anticipated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. On this point, UCLA economists believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Jay Powell will be prompted by an economy operating on full employment, rising inflation, and a skyrocketing federal deficit to increase the federal reserve rate four times in 2018, by 0.25% each time. California s economy is expected to perform similarly to the nation. The state has one of the largest GDP growth rates at nearly 3.5%, second only to the state of Washington. The state s total employment reached an all-time high, exceeding its previous peak by 9% and exceeding the lowest point during the Great Recession by over 16%. While employment growth has slowed significantly in some areas of the state namely San Francisco, the Silicon Valley, and the North Bay their slower growth has been offset by increased employment in the Inland Empire, the San Joaquin Valley, and the Sacramento and Delta regions. The redistribution of job growth caused the UCLA economists to suggest that California s economy is not as bifurcated as it had been during the immediate recovery years when the state s coastal regions were recovering more robustly than areas not adorned by water. The Risks The common risk to both the nation s and California s economy is unsurprising: the fiscal and trade policy decisions of the Trump Administration. The ballooning federal deficit that will result from the recently adopted budget will likely spur action by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Even more concerning is the new regime s plan to impose extraordinary tariffs on steel and aluminum imports of 25% and 10%, respectively. This plan has already upset the nation s most important trading partners, who have responded with retaliatory threats. Given that California is an import-export state with the nation s largest ports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland, the state will be disproportionately adversely affected by any impairment in international trade. Capturing the effects of the Trump Administration s recent policy decisions, the Forecast likens the economy to a car running hot: a few gaskets are likely to break. When they do, we could very likely stall out. Patti Herrera 148

152