Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call
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1 Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call October 27, 2017 NYSE: TEN
2 Agenda Third Quarter Highlights Segment Results and Financial Overview Outlook and Strategic Priorities Brian Kesseler Chief Executive Officer Ken Trammell Chief Financial Officer Brian Kesseler Chief Executive Officer Questions and Answers Safe Harbor Statement / Non-GAAP Results: Please see the safe harbor statement and the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-gaap results at the end of this presentation and in Tenneco s financial results press release, which is incorporated herein by reference. Prior period revision: Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31,
3 Third Quarter Highlights We delivered strong organic growth: Record third quarter revenue, significantly outpacing the industry in light vehicle, commercial truck and off-highway end-market applications in all regions by: Leveraging Tenneco s technology and capability leadership Capturing opportunities in high growth markets Capitalizing on positive market trends in both product lines Record Q3 adjusted earnings Net income and earnings per share Returned $85M to shareholders Repurchased 1.3 million shares for $71M Paid $14M in dividends Built to Outperform diversified business profile 3
4 Tenneco Revenue Record Q3 VALUE-ADD REVENUE $1.8B VA REVENUE Q3 + 6%* VA REVENUE by product application Light Vehicle Commercial Truck + 5%* + 31%* Outpacing global LV production of +2% NA LV revenue strongly levered to light truck segment** Outpacing global production of +4% CT volumes up in all regions India ramp-up of Bharat Stage IV commercial truck regulations CA LV 47% RP LV 23% CT 6% OH 6% Aftermarket 18% Off-Highway & Specialty + 29%* Aftermarket - 1%* Volumes up double digits in North America, Europe and Japan Off-highway recovering from weak industry conditions In line with global market Strength in South America; growing the customer base VA REVENUE by product line Ride Performance + 8%* Clean Air + 5%* Outpacing industry production by 4 percentage points * In constant currency **Light truck segment includes pickups, SUVs, CUVs and work vans (IHS definition) 4
5 Tenneco Earnings Q3 ADJUSTED EBIT $154M, DOWN 2% VA Adj. EBIT % Q3 8.8% Incremental revenue growth, particularly in commercial truck and off-highway Continued cost savings and productivity improvement activities Timing of steel economics recoveries and other offsets continuing from Q2 Clean Air Europe impacted by significant increase in CTOH and light vehicle program launch activity and associated costs Record ADJUSTED EPS $1.67, UP 11% Favorable Q3 tax rate of 23% vs. 28% last year 3.7 million shares repurchased over last 12 months Adjusted EPS up 11% on revenue growth, favorable tax rate and share repurchases 5
6 Ride Performance by Segment Q3 RP VA REVENUE $702M North America - 1%* VA Revenue $304M LV - 2%* CTOH + 13%* AM - 4%* Outpacing NA industry production down 10% New programs with Ford, Jeep, VW Outpacing NA CT prod. +2% Higher volumes with Daimler, Hendrickson and Paccar In line with softer market Impacted by hurricanes VA REVENUE Q3 + 8%* VA REVENUE by product application Light Vehicle 57% CT 7% Aftermarket 35% OH 1% Europe and South America + 17%* VA Revenue $279M LV + 22%* CTOH + 31%* AM + 7%* * In constant currency Outpacing production of Europe +5%, South America +26% New platforms and higher volumes on Monroe Intelligent Suspension Europe CT growth with Volvo Truck, Daimler, Paccar and Scania South America CT recovery Europe -7%, softer market South America up 29%, growing customer base Asia Pacific + 17%* VA Revenue $119M LV + 19%* AM ~ flat* Outpacing production of China +1%, India +3% New launches and higher volumes including with SVW, Fiat Chrysler and SGM Investing in the emerging market and increasing product coverage 6
7 Clean Air by Segment Q3 CA VA REVENUE $1,050M North America + 2%* VA Revenue $479M LV ~ flat* CTOH + 34%* Outpacing NA production down 10% Strong platform mix on light trucks, including Ford Super Duty Commercial truck revenues up double digits vs. production up 2% New business award w/ Daimler Trucks Off-highway recovering, up 32% with CAT and Deere Q3 improvement vs. ~flat YoY in Q2 Europe and South America + 4%* VA Revenue $336M LV + 3%* CTOH + 23%* * In constant currency VA REVENUE Growth on existing platforms and new Land Rover program ramping Multiple programs launching South America CT recovery Launching CT business with MAN in Europe Europe off-highway up 25% Continuing OH recovery and incremental business with Deutz Q3 + 5%* Light Vehicle 79% AM 7% CT 4% OH 10% Asia Pacific + 11%* VA Revenue $235M LV + 5%* CTOH + 62%* VA REVENUE by product application Outpacing China production +1% with new launches and higher volumes with SVW, SGM and FAW-VW China CT revenue up 45% Ramp-up of Bharat Stage IV regulations across India Off-highway volumes up in Japan with Kubota 7
8 Results by Product Line and Segment $ Millions Ride Performance Clean Air North America Europe & SA Q Q Asia Pacific Total North America Europe & SA Asia Pacific Total Value-add revenue $ 304 $ 279 $ 119 $ 702 $ 479 $ 336 $ 235 $ 1,050 Adjusted EBIT $ 34 $ 10 $ 19 $ 63 $ 47 $ 25 $ 38 $ 110 Adjusted EBIT as a % of value-add revenue 11.2% 3.6% 16.0% 9.0% 9.8% 7.4% 16.2% 10.5% North America Europe & SA Q Q Asia Pacific Total North America Europe & SA Asia Pacific Total Value-add revenue $ 306 $ 229 $ 101 $ 636 $ 468 $ 297 $ 211 $ 976 Adjusted EBIT $ 42 $ 8 $ 17 $ 67 $ 42 $ 30 $ 40 $ 112 Adjusted EBIT as a % of value-add revenue 13.7% 3.5% 16.8% 10.5% 9.0% 10.1% 19.0% 11.5% Takeaways: NA CA Q3 margin performance up 80bps YoY, driven by higher off-highway revenues; LV revenue flat RP NA, RP E&SA and CA AP results impacted by timing of steel economics recoveries and other offsets CA EU impacted by significant increase in CTOH and LV program launch activity and associated costs Please see the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-gaap results in Tenneco s financial results press release. See slide 9 on prior period revisions. 8
9 Financial Overview Q3 $ Millions, except as noted Q3 17 Q3 16** Change Total Revenue 2,274 2,096 8% Value-add Revenue Δ 1,752 1,612 9% Adjusted EBIT % Adjusted EBIT (% of VA Revenue) 8.8% 9.7% (90)bps Adjusted EBITDA * % Adjusted Net Income % Adjusted EPS ($) $1.67 $ % Cash Flow From Operations % Net Debt / Adjusted LTM EBITDA* 1.7x 1.3x (0.4)x Δ Value-add Revenue is total revenue less substrate sales. * Including noncontrolling interests. Adjusted for restructuring activities and net tax adjustments. Please see the tables that reconcile GAAP results with non-gaap results in Tenneco s financial results press release. ** Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31,
10 Adjustments Restructuring and related expense of $20M pre-tax, or 32-cents per diluted share In Australia, closure of the Clean Air plant and downsizing of Ride Performance operations for $9M Cost improvement initiatives Net tax adjustments of $6M, or 10-cents per diluted share, for adjustments to prior year estimates 10
11 Tax Expense Reported tax expense of $22M, includes tax benefit of: $3M on restructuring $6M for tax adjustments to prior year estimates Before those Q3 items, adjusted tax expense is $31M Effective tax rate of 23% in the quarter; year-to-date 26% Q3 cash tax payments were $31M Updated 2017 tax expectations Expect full year effective tax rate between 26% and 27% (prior 27% - 28%) without the Shanghai JV high tech designation ruling With high-tech designation, expect a 100 bps improvement to the effective tax rate Expect cash taxes in the range of $95M to $105M (prior $110M to $120M) Continued focus on global tax planning 11
12 Cash Flow Cash generated from operations of $53M; would have been $98M excluding settlement antitrust claims $45M paid related to antitrust as discussed last quarter Incremental $17M invested in trade working capital (receivables, inventory and payables) Capital expenditures of $92M in the quarter For full year 2017, we expect capital expenditures of about $390M; high end of previous guidance due to accelerated move of Beijing plant Opportunistically repurchased 1.3 million shares for $71M Year-to-date bought back 2.3 million shares for $131M Remaining authorization of $269M available through December 2019 Paid $14M in dividends (Q3 $0.25/share) Year-to-date paid $40M in dividends 12
13 Debt and Cash Position $ Millions September 30, Total Debt $ 1,681 $ 1,434 Cash Balances Net Debt $ 1,402 $ 1,108 Interest expense of $19M in the quarter, compared to adjusted interest expense of $16M last year Expect 2017 annual interest expense of approximately $72M 13
14 Outlook Q4 and Full Year Q4 Revenue Outlook Expect Q4 revenue to grow 7%, or 3% constant currency, outpacing light vehicle industry production growth of 1%* Better than industry performance will be driven by strong double-digit growth in commercial truck and off-highway revenues Light vehicle revenue expected in line with industry production Expect steady YOY contribution from the global aftermarket Value-add revenue also expected to grow 7%, or 3% on a constant currency basis, resulting in Q4 VA revenue about inline with Q3 Q4 Margin Outlook Expect Q4 margins about even with prior year** Sequential margin improvement vs. third quarter Reporting segments impacted by steel economics begin to show sequential improvement in Q4 CA Europe impact from launch costs lessen as customer programs ramp Full Year Revenue Outlook Expect 2017 revenue to grow 7%, or 6% constant currency, outpacing light vehicle industry production growth of 2%*. Value-add revenue also expected to grow 7%, or 6% on a constant currency basis * Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global light vehicle production and Tenneco estimates. ** Q VA adjusted EBIT margin 9.3% See slide 22 for our forecast assumptions 14
15 Industry Production YoY% Change Major Regions Q3 17 Q4 17 FY 17 North America -10% -3% -4% Europe 5% 7% 3% South America 26% 20% 21% China 1% -3% 1% India 3% 5% 6% Global Industry Production 2% 1% 2% 2017 full year global production forecast of 2%; consistent with previous outlook Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global light vehicle production forecast and Tenneco estimates. 15
16 Accelerating Core Growth 1. Global Aftermarket Best in Class Core Competencies #1 position in Americas & EMEA Leveraging competencies and investing in China maturing to largest vehicle aftermarket in the world* Mobility models drive replacement rates Product Applications VA Revenue 2. Monroe Intelligent Suspension Enabled by trends in autonomous driving, electrification and connectivity Growing installation rate and content per vehicle Increasing need for engineered NVH solutions 3. Clean Air Commercial Truck & Off-Highway More powertrains moving into regulation than regulated today* APAC driven Higher content per powertrain proven technology solutions Anticipated market recovery in Americas & EMEA 4. APAC Light Vehicle Production 70% of global production growth thru 2030* Highly competitive technical, manufacturing and supply chain footprint LV CTOH AM Q3 YTD 2017 Light Vehicle Commercial Truck & Off-highway Aftermarket Multiple and diverse long-term growth drivers * Source: IHS Automotive forecasts, PSR forecasts and/or Tenneco estimates 16
17 Clean Air Opportunities Electrification is an opportunity; hybridization driving CA growth Hybrid production CAGR 32%* through 2025 EU6 Hybrid value-add CPV expected to increase 30% - 40%** by 2025; at par with ICE CPV Plug-in hybrids offer additional content opportunity; packaging, engineering, acoustics and thermal management Leveraging increasing regulations U.S. and Europe LV regs increase content China and India LV regs catching up to developed markets Euro VI equivalent commercial truck regs into China, India and Brazil EU Stage V off-highway in 2019, requires DPFs Phase-in of new off-highway regs in China, India and Brazil ** Tenneco estimates Electrification of Light Vehicles *Source: IHS Automotive October 2017 global production forecast CTOH Growing # of Vehicles Under Regulation Source: PSR production forecast and Tenneco estimates Hybrid CAGR 32% (millions) BEV/FC Hybrid Total build (millions) CAGR CT: Euro VI (equivalent) % Regulated Off-Hwy % Total % Strong Clean Air growth outlook through the next decade BEV/FC CAGR 28% 17
18 Ride Performance Opportunities RIDE CONTROL and NVH Technology and capability leadership driving growth Increasing demand for advanced suspension systems to differentiate ride Existing portfolio of technical solutions align with autonomous and electrification trends Ride comfort Reduced NVH Improved handling Lightweighting AFTERMARKET Bringing market-leading capabilities to high growth markets New mobility models create demand for replacement parts Significant aftermarket opportunities as China car parc grows and ages over next decade 18
19 Strategic Priorities Continue outpacing industry production by 3% to 5+% Drive margin expansion and improve cash flow performance Shift investments to become more light vehicle powertrain agnostic as mix evolves Invest in Ride Performance technologies aligned with market trends Increase Aftermarket revenue in portfolio mix Build financial strength and maximize flexibility Aftermarket Aftermarket Ride Performance Ride Performance (OE) (OE) Clean Air Clean (OE) Air (OE) Current Value-add Revenue Long-term Value-add Revenue Diversified portfolio drives organic growth and shareholder value Source: IHS database, Power Systems Research, Tenneco analysis 19
20 Appendix: Commercial Truck and Off-Highway Diesel Aftertreatment Customers North America Europe China Truck Chrysler (LV 3/4 ton +) GM (LV 3/4 ton +) Ford (LV 3/4 ton + and CTrk) Daimler Trucks (CTrk) Off-Highway Caterpillar / Perkins Deere Brazil Commercial Truck Daimler Trucks Scania MAN Off-Highway AGCO Caterpillar / Perkins Deere Deutz MAN Scania Commercial Truck China National Heavy-Duty Truck Co. Dalian Diesel Engine Co. DFAC FAW JND Shanghai Diesel Engine Co. Weichai YuChai India Japan Off-Highway Kubota Caterpillar / Perkins Exported from North America and Europe Commercial Truck Daimler Trucks IVECO MAN Scania Commercial Truck Daimler Trucks Mahindra MAN Trucks India (MTI) Tata Motors VE Commercial Vehicles Volvo Trucks 20
21 Appendix: Pension and OPEB $ Millions Pension Q E Defined Benefit Expense* $15 $15 $11 $5 $14 Defined Benefit Contributions $46 $25 $38 $3 $32 OPEB Q E Expense $3 $8 $10 $3 $10 Cash Payments $8 $9 $9 $2 $10 * Does not include settlement or curtailment amounts 21
22 Appendix: Tenneco Projections Tenneco s revenue outlook for 2017 is as of October Revenue assumptions are based on projected customer production schedules, IHS Automotive October 2017 forecasts, Power Systems Research October 2017 forecasts and Tenneco estimates. In addition to the information set forth on this slide and slides 14 and 20, Tenneco s revenue projections are based on the type of information set forth under Outlook in Item 7 Management s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations as set forth in Tenneco s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, Please see that disclosure for further information. Key additional assumptions and limitations described in that disclosure include: Revenue projections are based on original equipment manufacturers programs that have been formally awarded to the company; programs where the company is highly confident that it will be awarded business based on informal customer indications consistent with past practices; and Tenneco s status as supplier for the existing program and its relationship with the customer. Revenue projections are based on the anticipated pricing of each program over its life. Except as otherwise indicated, revenue projections assume a fixed foreign currency value. This value is used to translate foreign business to the U.S. dollar. Revenue projections are subject to increase or decrease due to changes in customer requirements, customer and consumer preferences, the number of vehicles actually produced by our customers, and pricing. Certain elements of the restructuring and related expenses, legal settlements and other unusual charges we incur from time to time cannot be forecasted accurately. In this respect, we are not able to forecast EBIT (and the related margins) on a forward-looking basis without unreasonable efforts on account of these factors and the difficulty in predicting GAAP revenues (for purposes of a margin calculation) due to variability in production rates and volatility of precious metal pricing in the substrates that we pass through to our customers. 22
23 Adjusted EBIT as a Percentage of Value-add Revenue Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Results $ Millions Q1 16* Q2 16* Q3 16* Q4 16* FY 16* Net sales and operating revenues $ 2,136 $ 2,212 $ 2,096 $ 2,155 $ 8,599 Less: Substrate sales ,028 Value-add revenues (1) $ 1,626 $ 1,693 $ 1,612 $ 1,640 $ 6,571 EBIT $ 124 $ 171 $ 150 $ 71 $ 516 Adjustments (reflect non-gaap (2) measures) Restructuring and related expenses Pension charges / Stock vesting Adjusted EBIT (non-gaap Financial Measures) (3) $ 138 $ 176 $ 157 $ 153 $ 624 Adjusted EBIT as % of value-add revenue (4) 8.5% 10.4% 9.7% 9.3% 9.5% (1) Tenneco presents the above reconciliation of revenues in order to reflect value-add revenues separately from substrate sales, which include precious metals pricing, which may be volatile. Substrate sales occur when, at the direction of its OE customers, Tenneco purchases catalytic converters or components thereof from suppliers, uses them in its manufacturing processes and sells them as part of the completed system. While Tenneco original equipment customers assume the risk of this volatility, it impacts reported revenue. Excluding substrate sales removes this impact. Tenneco uses this information to analyze the trend in revenues before this factor. Tenneco believes investors find this information useful in understanding period to period comparisons in the company's revenues. (2) Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (3) Tenneco presents the above reconciliation of GAAP to non-gaap earnings measures primarily to reflect the results in a manner that allows a better understanding of the results of operational activities separate from the financial impact of decisions made for the long-term benefit of the company and other items impacting comparability between the periods. Adjustments similar to the ones reflected above have been recorded in earlier periods, and similar types of adjustments can reasonably be expected to be recorded in future periods. Using only the non-gaap earnings measures to analyze earnings would have material limitations because its calculation is based on the subjective determinations of management regarding the nature and classification of events and circumstances that investors may find material. Management compensates for these limitations by utilizing both GAAP and non-gaap earnings measures reflected above to understand and analyze the results of the business. The company believes investors find the non-gaap information helpful in understanding the ongoing performance of operations separate from items that may have a disproportionate positive or negative impact on the company s financial results in any particular period. (4) Tenneco presents adjusted EBIT as a percentage of value-add revenue to assist investors in evaluating our company s operational performance without the impact of substrate sales. *Financial results for 2016 and first quarter 2017 have been revised for certain immaterial adjustments as discussed in Tenneco s Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2016 and Form 10-Q/A for the quarter ended March 31,
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