Focus On PBGC Premiums Stan Goldfarb, FSA Actuary & Managing Consultant
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1 Focus On PBGC Premiums Stan Goldfarb, FSA Actuary & Managing Consultant Atlanta Cleveland Los Angeles Miami Washington, D.C.
2 PBGC Premiums Q: What are current premiums? A: $28 per participant, going up with inflation Q: What revenue projection is in the president s budget? A: 10 times current premium level Q: What is proposed structure of increases? A: 3 tier program: 1. Increase per capita premium 2. Add variable premium (as in the current Single Employer structure) 3. Introduce exit premium, payable to PBGC, not to Fund 1
3 Unless there is a legislative solution, two very large Funds, Central States and Mine Workers will go insolvent in a few years. In round terms, the PBGC will pay out $2 Billion per year just for those 2 funds. 2
4 (cont) There are 4 million active participants in the multiemployer system and 10.6 million total participants. $2 billion divided by 4 million people = $500 per person $2 billion divided by 10.6 million people = $189 per person That is the amount needed every year just to pay for Central States and Mine Workers. 3
5 Per Capita Contributions by Plan Active Participants $25,000 Employer Contributions per Active Participant Multiemployer Defined Benefit Pension Plans: All Industries $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Plan Year Number of Plans 95th Percentile 75th Percentile 50th Percentile 25th Percentile 5th Percentile ,257 1,286 1,276 1,137 1,090 1,199 1,211 1,234 1,233 1,209 $10,676 $12,260 $13,797 $15,054 $15,507 $16,680 $18,175 $18,826 $19,284 $22,903 $6,221 $6,803 $7,715 $8,388 $8,397 $9,218 $10,487 $11,136 $11,888 $12,805 $4,102 $4,540 $4,895 $5,394 $5,476 $5,961 $6,796 $7,227 $7,596 $8,335 $1,921 $2,138 $2,360 $2,497 $2,679 $3,018 $3,240 $3,600 $3,794 $4,118 $468 $501 $593 $589 $660 $785 $952 $995 $1,061 $1,027 Source: Form 5500 Data 4
6 Per Capita Contributions by Plan All Participants $10,000 Employer Contributions per Participant Multiemployer Defined Benefit Pension Plans: All Industries $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Plan Year Number of Plans 95th Percentile 75th Percentile 50th Percentile 25th Percentile 5th Percentile ,257 1,286 1,276 1,137 1,090 1,199 1,211 1,234 1,233 1,209 $5,377 $5,773 $6,591 $7,028 $6,714 $7,267 $7,762 $8,017 $7,882 $8,568 $3,076 $3,353 $3,666 $3,879 $3,706 $3,911 $4,245 $4,418 $4,581 $4,962 $1,807 $2,023 $2,198 $2,232 $2,172 $2,249 $2,414 $2,601 $2,738 $2,934 $727 $791 $859 $874 $889 $983 $1,061 $1,097 $1,141 $1,244 $163 $171 $180 $156 $176 $204 $202 $203 $196 $215 Source: Form 5500 Data 5
7 Overview Plan Contributions Per Capita Actives All Participants PBGC Premium Increase Zone Status Funded % 2034 Plan A None Green All Years 138% $9,376 $4,053 Plan A $150 Green All Years 133% Plan B None Green All Years 107% $2,122 $962 Endangered or Critical Plan B $150 92% Starting 2020 Plan C None Critical 44% $1,916 $331 Plan C $150 Critical and Declining 0% Notes: 1. Premium increase assumed to be effective January 1, Assumes 3% annual inflation for future premium increases 6
8 Plan A Current Premium Levels EOY FSA ($ Million) 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 Plan A Funding Standard Account ($Million) = Left Axis Funded Percentage = Right Axis PPA Funded Percentage 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% EOY Credit Balance (1) Plan Year Beginning (3,000) (6,000) (9,000) (12,000) % 40% 20% 0% (2) Asset Return During Year (%) (3) Average Contribution Rate ($) (4) Total Hours (Millions) (5) PYE CB - w/ 431(d) Extensions (6) Margin ($/Hour) (7) PVVB Funded Percentage at (8) PPA Funded Percentage at 7.60 (1.67) ,494 3,405 3,241 3,020 2,731 2,611 2,899 3,225 3,575 4,005 4,503 4,839 5,212 5,632 6,082 6,551 7,076 7,720 8,456 9,293 10, % 102% 100% 100% 100% 101% 103% 106% 108% 110% 113% 115% 118% 121% 124% 127% 130% 134% 138% 142% 147% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 96% 99% 101% 103% 106% 108% 111% 113% 116% 119% 122% 126% 129% 133% 138% Copyright Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7
9 Plan A Premiums Increase by $150 effective 1/1/2018 EOY FSA ($ Million) 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 Plan A Funding Standard Account ($Million) = Left Axis Funded Percentage = Right Axis PPA Funded Percentage 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% EOY Credit Balance (1) Plan Year Beginning (3,000) (6,000) (9,000) (12,000) % 40% 20% 0% (2) Asset Return During Year (%) (3) Average Contribution Rate ($) (4) Total Hours (Millions) (5) PYE CB - w/ 431(d) Extensions (6) Margin ($/Hour) (7) PVVB Funded Percentage at (8) PPA Funded Percentage at 7.60 (1.67) ,494 3,405 3,241 3,020 2,699 2,544 2,794 3,077 3,379 3,757 4,199 4,472 4,776 5,121 5,489 5,868 6,295 6,832 7,450 8,161 8, % 102% 100% 100% 100% 101% 102% 105% 107% 109% 111% 114% 116% 119% 121% 124% 127% 130% 134% 138% 142% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 107% 109% 111% 114% 116% 119% 122% 125% 129% 133% Copyright Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8
10 Plan B Current Premium Levels EOY Credit Balance Plan Year beginning Asset Return during Year Contributions ($ Million) PYE CB - w/ ext. ($ Billion) Funded Percentage at EOY FSA ($Billion) (0.50) (1.00) (1.50) (2.00) (2.50) (3.00) (3.50) (4.00) Actuarial Value of Assets ($ Billion) Actuarial Accrued Liability ($ Billion) Plan B Funding Standard Account ($1 Billion) = Primary Axis Funded Percentage / PPA Zone = Secondary Axis PPA Funded Percentage 130% % 1.4% 8.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% % 84% 82% 82% 82% 82% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 89% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 101% 103% 107% % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9
11 Plan B Premiums Increase by $150 effective 1/1/2018 EOY Credit Balance Plan Year beginning Asset Return during Year Contributions ($ Million) PYE CB - w/ ext. ($ Billion) Funded Percentage at EOY FSA ($Billion) (0.50) (1.00) (1.50) (2.00) (2.50) (3.00) (3.50) (4.00) Actuarial Value of Assets ($ Billion) Actuarial Accrued Liability ($ Billion) Plan B Funding Standard Account ($1 Billion) = Primary Axis Funded Percentage / PPA Zone = Secondary Axis PPA Funded Percentage 130% % 1.4% 8.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) 85% 84% 82% 82% 82% 81% 81% 81% 82% 82% 83% 83% 84% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 89% 91% 92% % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10
12 Plan C Current Premium Levels EOY Credit Balance (1) Plan Year beginning (2) Asset Return during Year (3) Active Count (4) Annual Contributions ($M). (5) Operating Expenses ($M) (6) Benefit Payments ($M) (7) Contributions per Participant ($) (8) Actuarial Accrued Liability ($M) (9) Actuarial Value of Assets ($M) (10) PYE CB - w/ ext. ($M) (11) Funded Percentage - MVA Basis (12) Contribution Margin - MVA Basis ($M) EOY FSA ($ Million) (320) (640) (960) (1,280) Plan C Funding Standard Account ($1 Million) = Primary Axis Funded Percentage / PPA Zone = Secondary Axis PPA Funded Percentage 120% % -0.24% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 87,363 83,694 77,980 76,966 75,966 74,978 74,003 73,041 72,092 71,155 70,230 69,317 68,416 67,526 66,648 65,782 64,927 64,083 63,250 62,427 61, ,992 1,492 1,421 1,507 1,598 1,694 1,793 1,897 1,988 2,073 2,111 2,113 2,115 2,117 2,119 2,121 2,122 2,122 2,123 2,124 2,126 3,576 3,685 3,666 3,697 3,723 3,744 3,760 3,771 3,775 3,772 3,761 3,741 3,712 3,678 3,641 3,600 3,557 3,513 3,468 3,424 3,380 2,631 2,635 2,532 2,434 2,318 2,262 2,211 2,197 2,181 2,162 2,138 2,105 2,060 2,008 1,949 1,884 1,813 1,736 1,655 1,570 1, (10) (152) (298) (368) (419) (468) (542) (624) (710) (815) (964) (1,112) (1,262) (1,394) (1,524) (1,657) 66% 66% 61% 61% 60% 59% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 56% 56% 55% 54% 52% 51% 49% 48% 46% 44% (45) (56) (86) (85) % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11
13 Plan C Premiums Increase by $150 effective 1/1/2018 EOY Credit Balance (1) Plan Year beginning (2) Asset Return during Year (3) Active Count (4) Annual Contributions ($M). (5) Operating Expenses ($M) (6) Benefit Payments ($M) (7) Contributions per Participant ($) (8) Actuarial Accrued Liability ($M) (9) Actuarial Value of Assets ($M) (10) PYE CB - w/ ext. ($M) (11) Funded Percentage - MVA Basis (12) Contribution Margin - MVA Basis ($M) EOY FSA ($ Million) (320) (640) (960) (1,280) Plan C Funding Standard Account ($1 Million) = Primary Axis Funded Percentage / PPA Zone = Secondary Axis PPA Funded Percentage 120% % -0.24% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 87,363 83,694 77,980 76,966 75,966 74,978 74,003 73,041 72,092 71,155 70,230 69,317 68,416 67,526 66,648 65,782 64,927 64,083 63,250 62,427 61, ,992 1,492 1,421 1,507 1,598 1,694 1,793 1,897 1,988 2,073 2,111 2,113 2,115 2,117 2,119 2,121 2,122 2,122 2,123 2,124 2,126 3,576 3,685 3,666 3,697 3,723 3,744 3,760 3,771 3,775 3,772 3,761 3,741 3,712 3,678 3,641 3,600 3,557 3,513 3,468 3,424 3,380 2,631 2,635 2,532 2,434 2,318 2,204 2,090 2,008 1,918 1,819 1,708 1,581 1,435 1,272 1, (46) (378) (131) (341) (561) (711) (849) (992) (1,167) (1,360) (1,564) (1,798) (2,086) (2,384) (2,695) (3,002) (3,321) (3,664) 66% 66% 61% 61% 60% 58% 56% 53% 51% 48% 45% 42% 39% 35% 30% 25% 19% 13% 6% 0% 0% (45) (56) (86) (85) % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12
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