SESSION 1 THE ACTUARIAL METHODOLOGY OF PENSIONS. Presented by Victor Harte Milliman, Inc.

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1 SESSION 1 THE ACTUARIAL METHODOLOGY OF PENSIONS Presented by Victor Harte Milliman, Inc. victor.harte@milliman.com October 7, 2015

2 OVERVIEW Types of Pension Plans Optional forms of benefits Actuarial Assumptions Types of Plan Sponsors Reporting/Disclosure Requirements Alternative Assumptions Calculations 2

3 TYPES OF PENSION PLANS Defined Benefit Plans Traditional Plan Design Hybrid Plan Designs Defined Contribution Plans 401(k) 403(b) Profit-Sharing 3

4 TRADITIONAL PLAN DESIGNS 4

5 HYBRID PLANS Cash Balance Plans Pension Equity Plans Variable Annuity Plans 5

6 CASH BALANCE PLANS Looks like a Defined Contribution Plan Hypothetical Account Pre-determined Interest Can be converted into a monthly benefit 6

7 PENSION EQUITY PLANS Benefit is defined as a lump sum Based on Salary and Service Can be converted into a monthly benefit 7

8 VARIABLE ANNUITY PLANS Benefit based on typical design but Increases or decreases based on asset returns Provides monthly benefits 8

9 OPTIONAL FORMS OF BENEFITS Life Annuity Social Security Level Income Year certain and life (i.e. 10 years) Pop-up options Joint and Survivor (i.e. 50%, 75% or 100%) 9

10 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS (DEMOGRAPHIC) Mortality Retirement Rate Turnover Disability Marital status 10

11 MORTALITY TABLES How long people will live Increase in life expectancy Impact of type of work 11

12 RETIREMENT RATES Early or late retirement Impact of size of benefit Social Security benefit Eligible for Retiree Medical benefit 12

13 TURNOVER TABLES Industry Age Service 13

14 DISABILITY RATES Smaller impact on Plan liabilities Based on definition of disability Increase with age 14

15 MARITAL STATUS % Married Age difference Same sex partners 15

16 FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN SELECTING DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS Past Experience Health Demographic make-up Plan benefits Regulatory requirements 16

17 ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS (ECONOMIC) Discount Rate Long term rate of return Salary scale CPI 17

18 FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN SELECTING ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Asset Allocation Capital Market Assumptions Expected Alpha Bond Market Regulatory requirements 18

19 TYPES OF PLAN SPONSORS Corporations Multi-Employer Plans Governments Churches 19

20 IRS/DOL REPORTING/DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS PBGC FASB IAS 20

21 ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS Discount Rate Funding FASB PBGC Target Liability Current Liability 21

22 ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS Mortality Funding FASB 22

23 CALCULATIONS 23

24 BENEFIT CALCULATION (NEW RETIREE) Salary Benefit Rate Service = Pension 60,000 x 1% x 30 years = /Year 18, = 1500/month Payable for Life 24

25 OPTIONAL FORMS OF BENEFIT Life Annuity $1, Year Certain and Life 1, % Joint & Survivor 1, % Joint & Survivor 1, Note: These factors were calculated using the UP1984 Unisex Table, an interest rate of 7.00%, and an assumed age of 65 for the participant and beneficiary. Calculations will change based on the mortality table, interest rate, and ages of the participant and beneficiary. 25

26 PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION 26

27 LIFE EXPECTANCY TABLES Males Age 1983 GAM RP2000 RP/MP Females Age 1983 GAM RP2000 RP/MP

28 DISCOUNT RATE Funding Target Liability Current Liability FASB PBGC 28

29 ALTERNATIVE PRESENT VALUES Assuming a $1,250 monthly benefit commencing at age 65 for life for a male Basis Interest Rate(s) Mortality Table Value FASB 3.75% RP2014/MP2014 $212,400 Funding Current Liability 3.51% Same as PBGC 202,700 PBGC 1.48%, 3.77%, 4.79% RP2000 projected to valuation year with an addition 7 years of projections 197,800 Funding Target* 4.72%, 6.11%, 6.81% Same as PBGC 163,100 * Reflecting HATFA relief 29

30 CURRENT BENEFIT $32,500 x 1% x 5 years = $1,625/year $1, = $135.42/month Payable for Life Commencing at Retirement 30

31 SAMPLE 40 YEAR OLD Earning $32,500 Has 5 years of Service Expected Pay Increases 2.5% / Year 31

32 PROJECTED BENEFIT $32,500 x (1.025) 25 = 60,000 (approximate) $60,000 x 1% x 30 = $18,000 year $18, = $1,500/month Payable for Life Commencing at Retirement *Assumes survival to Retirement; 2.5% Pay increases and No Plan changes 32

33 PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION Based on Life Expectancy Discount Rate Also consider Pre Retirement Mortality Turnover Disability Salary scale Present Value Factors 33

34 LIFE EXPECTANCY TABLES PROBABILITY OF LIVING TO 65 Average Life Expectancy (Additional Years) Age GAM1983 RP2000 RP2014/MP Probability of Living Until Age 65 Age GAM1983 RP2000 RP2014/MP % 86.72% 91.74% % 87.36% 91.37% % 89.45% 91.32% 34

35 SAMPLE COMPANY IBM 35

36 SAMPLE COMPANY (Values in Billions) 1/1/2013 Target Liability $ /31/2012 Notes to Financial Statements /31/2012 Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements

37 SAMPLE COMPANY Differences could be due to Discount Rate Mortality Table Other Assumptions 37

38 38

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40 40

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43 43

44 44

45 QUESTIONS 45

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