Social Protection Floor Costing Tool. User Manual

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Eustacia Anderson
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1 Social Protection Floor Costing Tool User Manual

2 Enabling Macro on Your PC 1- Open the tool file 2- Click on Options 3- In the dialogue box, select enable this content 4- Click Ok

3 Tool Overview This diagram illustrates the tool components

4 Tool Overview Now you can work on each model s component by clicking on the corresponding button

5 First: Demographic Model 1- Click on Population Data in the cover page as shown in the last slide. 2- The sheet on the right will appear. 3- Understand the data requirement. If you have national statistical projection, you may use them. 4- If you do not, go to the next slide.

6 Importing DESA Population Projections 1- Open file UNPOP.xlsm, go to sheet male. Select your country for the dropdown list. Here I selected Madagascar. Dropdown list of countries to select from

Importing DESA Population Projection 2- Copy male population aged between 0-100 from

7 Importing DESA Population Projection 2- Copy male population aged between from from UNPOP.xlsm and paste it into the tool as illustrated: From DESA s data Model

8 Importing DESA Population Projections 3- After you have imported male data, click on the button Female as illustrated. 4- Now Excel takes you to the designated area for female data to be imported. Repeat the same process in 1 and 2 but this time for the female population data. 5- When you have entered all the population data, click Back to go to the cover page.

9 Second: Labour Market Model- Historical Data 1- Click on Labour Market Data in the cover page 2- The sheet on the right will appear. 3- There are two data requirements for this sheet: i) Historical ii) Projection 4- For Historical Data, if you have national statistics, you may use them. 5- If you do not, go to the next slide.

Importing ILO Labour Market Data 1- Go to http://laborsta.ilo.

10 Importing ILO Labour Market Data 1- Go to 2- The following page will pop up. 3- Select your country and click go.

11 Importing ILO Labour Market Data 4- After you have selected your country on the website, as shown earlier, you will be provided with many data items. Download data for the following two variables: E5 Estimates and projections of the economically active population 3B Unemployment, by age group

12 Importing ILO Labour Market Data 5- See below for an illustration of data on Participation Rates (E5 on the ILO s website). For data on Unemployment (3B on the ILO s website), repeat the same process. From ILO s web site model

13 Second: Labour Market Model - Projection 1- Participation Rate: If there are reasons to believe that participation rates will differ over the 20-year projection period, enter the values thought to be reasonable. Otherwise, use the same values as those used for the most recent year. The Tool provides graphic illustrations to help the user visualize the options selected.

14 Second: Labour Market Model - Projection 2- Unemployment rate: If there are reasons to believe that current unemployment rates are the product of temporary cyclical movements, you may enter different values for an intermediate year five years after the current year. You may also enter different unemployment rates at the end of the projection period if you believe there will be structural changes. The Tool provides graphic illustrations to help the user visualize the options selected.

15 Third: Economic Model - Historical 1- Click on Economic Data in the cover page. 2- The sheet bellow will appear. 3- There are two data requirements for this sheet: i) Historical ii) Projection 4- For Historical Data, if you have national statistics, you may use them. 5- If you do not have national data for the historical economic data, go to next slide.

16 Importing Economic Data 1- Economic data can be extracted from several databases, including national records. One option is using the World Bank s DataBank, which can be found here:

17 Importing Economic Data 2- Now choose the following indicators from the menu: GDP (current LCU), GDP growth, and inflation.

-Labour Productivity is calculated automatically for historical data.

18 Importing Economic Data 3- Now enter this data into the model. If data is missing, use other sources or common sense to update. -Labour Productivity is calculated automatically for historical data. - If 2009 or 2010 values do not exist, you may use other sources or use your best judgment.

19 Third: Economic Model - Projection 1- Now you need to enter into the model your assumptions on future rates of productivity and CPI (inflation). 2- The model has three different scenarios requiring different sets of data : i) Main Model ii) Optimistic iii) Pessimistic 3- Carefully study the assumptions and select your preference values. Graphs are automatically generated to help visualize the impact of your selection. Note: values in dark grey are automatically calculated based on the values entered. Do NOT change them.

20 Fourth: Public Finance Model 1- Scroll down on the same sheet for the Economic Data until you see this table

Fourth: Public Finance Model 2- Use national statistics whenever possible. If national statistics are not available, you may use international sources such as the World Bank.

21 Fourth: Public Finance Model 2- Use national statistics whenever possible. If national statistics are not available, you may use international sources such as the World Bank. The IMF also has several Public Expenditure Reviews. You may also try the CIA website. Select the year of the most recent data Do NOT change cells in dark grey Select the tax, non-tax, grants, expenditure as a percentage of GDP for the end of the projection period. You may base your figures on those of 2010 which are provided in dark grey.

22 Fifth: Social Protection Model 1- Click on Benefit Assumptions on the cover page. 2- Go through each benefit included in the costing exercise and enter the intended parameters. This is illustrated on the next slide.

Fifth: Social Protection Model 2- For each intervention, set the benefit parameters (eligibility, benefit amount, administrative cost, and coverage ratios) and targeting ratios (poor as a Insert

23 Fifth: Social Protection Model 2- For each intervention, set the benefit parameters (eligibility, benefit amount, administrative cost, and coverage ratios) and targeting ratios (poor as a Insert admin cost as a % of benefit. Insert poor as a % of covered population. percentage of covered population) Example: Old-age pension Select age eligibility from dropdown list. Benefit can be described as a percentage of per capita GDP or in local currency. Indicate your choice by selecting from the dropdown list. You may prefer to start with a segment of the population (geographical or other segmentation) and then expand the program gradually. Depending on your choice in #2, select the percentage (in #3) or the amount of benefit (in #4).

24 Fifth: Social Protection Model 3- In the same way, select benefit parameters for the remaining benefits. If you do not want to include a benefit in the set of programmes you are trying to cost, simply select benefit level = 0, or covered population =0%

25 Results: Tabulated 1- Click on Tables in the cover page. 2- The default table is for the main scenario, but you can view tables for the other scenarios by clicking on the buttons that appear at the top of the page.

26 Results: Graphs Graph illustrations are presented in two sets: 1- Inputs (demographic, economic, labour) 2- Outputs On the cover page, click on the type of graphs you want to view.

27 Results: Poverty Reduction 1- Click on Poverty Reduction on the cover page. 2- Data needed here include: poverty line and the year it was constructed, poverty rates (head count and gap), and the year in which they were estimated. 3- The output given is the reduction in the poverty gap.

Social Protection Floor Costing Tool. User Manual

Social Protection Floor Costing Tool User Manual Enabling Macro on Your PC 1- Open the tool file 2- Click on Options 3- In the dialogue box, select enable this content 4- Click Ok Tool Overview This diagram