Consumer Confidence Survey

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Consumer Confidence Survey"

Transcription

1 Consumer Confidence Survey Quarterly analysis of consumer expectations Second quarter Q1 12 March 2014 Please refer to the glossary on the BER s website for explanations of technical terms.

2 Editor: Harri Kemp Linette Ellis Tel: Fax: Technical assistance: Ester Manefeldt Language Editor: Jenny Tucker Stellenbosch University This publication is confidential and only for the use of the intended recipient. Copyright for this publication is held by Stellenbosch University. Although reasonable professional skill, care and diligence are exercised to record and interpret all information correctly, Stellenbosch University, its division BER and the author(s)/editor do not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss whatsoever that might result from unintentional inaccurate data and interpretations provided by the BER as well as any interpretations by third parties. Stellenbosch University further accepts no liability for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken by any third party on the basis of information provided in this publication. The views, conclusions or opinions contained in this publication are those of the BER and do not necessarily reflect those of Stellenbosch University. For more information on the BER s services please visit

3 Executive summary Having edged up from -14 index points in 2015Q4 to -9 in 2016Q1, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slumped back to -11 in 2016Q2. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during 2016Q2 came on the back of a 6 index- point relapse in consumers' rating of their own financial positions and a 3 index-point slide in their rating of South Africa's economic prospects. The time to buy durable goods index edged up by 2 index points from the 6½-year low of -22 reached in 2016Q1. A barrage of adverse economic developments had already been hammering the South African economy since 2015, including political uncertainty, social unrest, very low business confidence levels, a stagnation in public sector employment, a dramatic depreciation in the rand, soaring food prices and rising interest rates. These headwinds were exacerbated by the devastating impact of the widespread drought on the agriculture sector and the effect of weak global demand and subdued commodity prices on the mining sector, culminating in a contraction in South Africa's real GDP and sharp fall in employment in 2016Q1. The confidence levels of low income consumers in particular were hard hit by the alarming increase in South Africa's unemployment rate and rapidly rising food inflation - and more recently also sharp hikes in fuel prices. The second quarter decline and exceedingly low level of the FNB/BER CCI mirrors the deterioration in the RMB/BER business confidence index during 2016Q2, which dropped to its lowest level since the 2008/09 global financial crisis and recession. Correspondingly, the business confidence levels of South African retailers plunged to a 15-year low, as weak demand and soaring input costs eroded retailer profits. Given that inflation is set to accelerate further on the back of the droughtinduced rise in domestic grain prices and sustained weak rand exchange rate, the purchasing power of most households will likely weaken further in coming months. This report was completed on 4 July Please refer to the glossary on the BER s website for explanations of technical terms.

4 Contents Summary of the 2016Q2 consumer confidence survey results... 1 Consumer confidence slumps once again... 1 Technical note... 5 i

5 Summary of the 2016Q2 consumer confidence survey results Consumer confidence slumps once again CCI slumps in 2016Q2 The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slumped back to -11 in 2016Q2, after edging up from -14 index points in 2015Q4 to -9 in 2016Q1. Consumer confidence levels remain far more depressed compared to the lowest reading recorded during the 2008/09 global financial crisis and recession (-6), signalling that consumers are very concerned about the outlook for the domestic economy and their household finances. 1 Figure 1: CCI declines amid difficult consumer environment Low High Jun-92 Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13 Jun-16 Source: BER The FNB/BER CCI combines the results of three questions posed to adults in South Africa, namely the expected performance of the economy, the expected financial position of households and the rating of the appropriateness of the present time to buy durable goods, such as furniture, appliances and electronic equipment. The fieldwork for the second quarter survey was conducted between 17 May and 10 June The CCI has ranged between +23 and -17 index points since

6 Consumers remain downbeat The deterioration in consumer sentiment during 2016Q2 came on the back of a 6-index point relapse in consumers' rating of their own financial positions and a 3-index point slide in their rating of South Africa's economic prospects. The time to buy durable goods index edged up by 2 index points from the 6½-year low of -22 reached in 2016Q1. Importantly, the fieldwork for the CCI survey was completed on 10 June This was prior to the explosion of violence and looting in South Africa's capital (following the announcement of Thoko Didiza as the ANC s mayoral candidate in Tshwane) and also well before Britain voted to leave the European Union, wreaking havoc on stock markets and leaving the rand exchange rate weaker again. These two factors increase uncertainty about South Africa's economic prospects and had the potential to suppress consumer confidence even more during the second half of June Numerous headwinds buffeting the SA consumer A myriad of adverse economic forces had already been hammering the South African economy since 2015, including political uncertainty, social unrest, very low business confidence levels, a stagnation in public sector employment, a dramatic depreciation in the rand, soaring food prices and rising interest rates. These headwinds were exacerbated by the debilitating impact of the widespread drought on the agriculture sector and the effect of weak global demand and subdued commodity prices on the mining sector, culminating in a 1.2 per cent contraction 2 in South Africa's real GDP during 2016Q1. In addition, the latest employment numbers from Statistics South Africa show that the domestic economy shed a massive jobs between 2015Q4 and 2016Q1. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate rose from 24.5% to 26.7% - the highest rate recorded since Statistics South Africa commenced with the Labour Force Survey in 2008Q1. In light of the slump in economic activity and the decline in employment levels, it is therefore not surprising that consumers made a further downward adjustment to their ratings of the outlook for the South Africa economy and their household finances. High-income consumers slightly better off A breakdown of the survey results according to household income group reveals diverging results. The consumer confidence levels of high income consumers (earning more than R per month) improved from -10 to -6 index points, but low income confidence levels (earning less than R p.m.) plunged from -8 to -15 index points in 2016Q2. The sharp fall in consumer sentiment among the lower income group can be ascribed to a significant (7 index point) downgrade in their rating of South Africa's economic prospects and a startling (10 index point) decline in their rating of their household finances. By 2 Quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised. 2

7 comparison, the financial prospects sub-index of the CCI for high income consumers only declined by 1 index point to +11, which widened the gap considerably to the -3 recorded for the financial prospects index of low income consumers. Low-income households struggling The alarming increase in South Africa's unemployment rate and rapidly rising food inflation - and more recently also fuel prices - are now exacerbating the impact of pervasive income inequality on low income households. According to Statistics South Africa, food inflation surged from 5.2% y-o-y in 2015Q4 to a massive 11% in April/May 2016, while the petrol price rose by nearly R1,50 (13%) between March and June Low income households spend a proportionally larger share of their budgets on food and transport costs compared to higher income households and therefore typically bear the brunt of the impact of higher food and fuel prices. In addition, a disproportionally large share of the job losses during 2016Q1 occurred among traditionally low skilled/lower income occupations, such as domestic workers, elementary workers and workers in the informal sector (compared to job gains among employees in the relatively higher remunerated professional or management positions). Whereas the weak job market and higher food prices are weighing on lower income consumers, the pick-up in share markets during the survey period and the fact that Standard & Poor s did not downgrade the country may have lifted the spirits of the higher income group. Figure 2: Low-income consumers struggling Low High Jun-95 Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13 Jun-16 High income households (earning R p.m.) Low income households (earning less than R7 000 p.m.) Source: BER 3

8 Time to buy durables improves from low levels In contrast to the economic outlook and financial positions indices, the time to buy durable goods sub-index of the CCI edged up slightly from -22 (the lowest level since the 2008/09 recession) to -19 index points in 2016Q2. The fact that the SARB did not raise interest rates again during 2016Q2 (following consecutive interest rate hikes at the previous three Monetary Policy Committee meetings, in November, January and March) may have helped to stem the tide in terms of the time to buy durable goods index. Nevertheless, the vast majority of consumers across all household income groups still consider the present time as the wrong time to buy durable goods. The second quarter decline and exceedingly low level of the FNB/BER CCI mirrors the deterioration in the RMB/BER business confidence index during 2016Q2, which dropped to its lowest level since the 2008/09 global financial crisis and recession. In particular, the business confidence levels of South African retailers plunged to the lowest in 15 years, as weak demand and soaring input costs eroded their profitability levels. Unfortunately, given that inflation is set to accelerate further on the back of the drought-induced rise in domestic grain prices and sustained weak rand exchange rate, the purchasing power of most households will likely wane further in coming months. With little support expected from policy makers (currently tightening on both the monetary and fiscal fronts), we expect the growth in real consumer spending to slump from a meagre 1.7% in 2015 to near zero per cent in

9 Technical note The consumer confidence results are derived from personal at-home interviews of an area-stratified probability sample of households. AC Nielsen conducts the surveys for the BER. The surveys cover blacks and whites in metropolitan areas, cities, towns and villages throughout South Africa. Coloured and Indian coverage include the major metropolitan areas. The total coverage represents 92% of the urban adult population and 53% of the total adult population. A trained, experienced fieldworker uses a structured questionnaire and conducts the interview in the home language of the respondent. A 35% validation check is carried out personally or telephonically on the work of each interviewer. The consumer confidence questions are always the first three questions of the questionnaire and only the head of the household (male or female) is interviewed. The following questions are asked: 1. How do you expect the general economic position in South Africa to develop during the next 12 months? Will it improve considerably, improve slightly, remain the same, deteriorate slightly, deteriorate considerably or don t know? 2. How do you expect the financial position in your household to develop in the next 12 months? Will it improve considerably, improve slightly, remain the same, deteriorate slightly, deteriorate considerably or don t know? 3. What is your opinion of the suitability of the present time for the purchase of domestic appliances such as furniture, washing machines, refrigerators etc. Do you think that for people in general it is the right time, neither a good nor a bad time or the wrong time? Consumer confidence is expressed as a net balance in contrast to business confidence, which is depicted as a percentage gross. The net balance is derived as the percentage of respondents expecting an improvement less the percentage expecting a deterioration. The answers of the first and second question are weighted as follows: improve considerably (+10), improve slightly (+5), remain the same (0), deteriorate slightly (-5) and deteriorate considerably (-10). The responses of the third question are weighted in the following manner: right time to buy (+10) and wrong time to buy (-10). The composite consumer confidence index is the average of the results of the above three questions.

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 23 November 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 18 January 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank In recent weeks,

More information

Forecast and Country Report for South Africa. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Plus Economics Advisory (Pty) Ltd

Forecast and Country Report for South Africa. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Plus Economics Advisory (Pty) Ltd Title Forecast and Country Report for South Africa Brief description This document provides a brief analysis of the South African economy in the first and second quarters of 2015. Furthermore a forecast

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 20 November 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 18 September 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the South African labour market from 3 of 2010 to of 2011 September 2011 Contents Recent labour market trends... 2 A brief labour

More information

1 March 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT. JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST

1 March 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT. JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 1 March 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 087-328 0151 john.loos@fnb.co.za THEO SWANEPOEL: PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST 087-328 0157 tswanepoel@fnb.co.za

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT 24 January 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous meeting of

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 27 March 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 19 July 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

1 February 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT. JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST

1 February 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT. JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 1 February 2016 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 087-328 0151 john.loos@fnb.co.za THEO SWANEPOEL: PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST 087-328 0157

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 24 May 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank In recent weeks,

More information

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the South African labour market for the Year Ending 2016 14 July 2016 Contents Recent labour market trends... 2 A labour market

More information

Conducting inflation expectation surveys in South Africa

Conducting inflation expectation surveys in South Africa Conducting inflation expectation surveys in South Africa THE PURPOSE OF IINFLATIION EXPECTATIION SURVEYS Changes in demand (e.g. an independent rise in household consumption expenditure causing capacity

More information

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the South African labour market from 1 of 2009 to of 2010 August 2010 Contents Recent labour market trends... 2 A brief labour

More information

SA interest rates cut sooner than anticipated

SA interest rates cut sooner than anticipated SA interest rates cut sooner than anticipated Interest rates cut by 25 basis points to 6.75% The South African Reserve Bank s (SARB) interest rate decision was not in line with the Reuters consensus, in

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Heightened Concerns on Prices

Heightened Concerns on Prices M O N T H L Y R E P O R T D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E /1318/cc/2018 C O N S U M E R March 2018 Heightened Concerns on Prices Consumer Confidence weakened in February 2018. In this

More information

The Australian economy will come dangerously close to a recession in 2009, but it is not the forgone conclusion being suggested in some quarters.

The Australian economy will come dangerously close to a recession in 2009, but it is not the forgone conclusion being suggested in some quarters. Australian Economy sharp slowdown underway December 2008 Key Points: HIA Economics Group 79 Constitution Ave CAMPBELL ACT 2612 Ph: 02 6245 1393 Fax: 02 6245 1444 Email: economics@hia.com.au Web: http://economics.hia.com.au

More information

International economic developments

International economic developments International economic developments Global real economic growth accelerated further from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 216 to 3.9% in the first quarter of 217, mainly due to robust output growth in a number

More information

Danske Bank October 2015 Economic Update,

Danske Bank October 2015 Economic Update, Monthly update: 5 October 2015 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan www.danskebank.co.uk/ec Local job and investment announcements during September 2015 Over the month of September there

More information

VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 QUARTERLY UPDATE 15 JUNE 2017 PREPARED FOR THE MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF VICTORIA STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Senior

More information

Quarterly Economic Review

Quarterly Economic Review Quarterly Economic Review Introduction Global economic growth decelerated in the second quarter of 212 with activity slowing across a wide range of advanced and emerging-market countries after having surprised

More information

Executive summary WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK

Executive summary WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK Executive summary WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK TRENDS 2018 Global economic growth has rebounded and is expected to remain stable but low Global economic growth increased to 3.6 per cent in 2017, after

More information

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global PMI Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials July 7 th 2017 2 Widening developed and emerging world growth trends The global economy enjoyed further steady growth in June, according to

More information

Quarterly Economic Review

Quarterly Economic Review Quarterly Economic Review Introduction Having decelerated notably in the final quarter of 215, global economic growth recovered somewhat in the first quarter of 216, reflecting marginally higher rates

More information

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the South African labour market for the Year Ending 2012 6 June 2012 Contents Recent labour market trends... 2 A labour market

More information

18. Real gross domestic product

18. Real gross domestic product 18. Real gross domestic product 6 Percentage change from quarter to quarter 4 2-2 6 4 2-2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Total Non-agricultural sectors Seasonally adjusted and annualised rates South Africa s real

More information

The shape of the pending recovery

The shape of the pending recovery Sizwe Nxedlana Research Economics Economist sizwe.nxedlana@fnbcommercial.co.za (011) 352 3276 The shape of the pending recovery Domestic expenditure deteriorated in the second quarter Real expenditure

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 January 2019 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since November

More information

Global PMI. Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high. February 8 th 2016

Global PMI. Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high. February 8 th 2016 Global PMI Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high February 8 th 2016 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2 Global PMI at 22-month high The global economy started 2017 with

More information

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. February 2014

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. February 2014 Macroeconomic and financial market developments February 2014 Background material to the abridged minutes of the Monetary Council meeting 18 February 2014 Article 3 (1) of the MNB Act (Act CXXXIX of 2013

More information

LETTER. economic. The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? NOVEMBER bdc.ca

LETTER. economic. The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? NOVEMBER bdc.ca economic LETTER NOVEMBER 211 The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? Since the end of April the price of crude oil based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark has dropped

More information

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 0.1% to in

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 0.1% to in Media release 12 December 2018 Strict Embargo 10:30a.m Consumer Sentiment holds the line The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 0.1% to 104.4 in December from 104.3 in November.

More information

FNB PROPERTY MARKET ANALYTICS

FNB PROPERTY MARKET ANALYTICS 1 June 21 FNB MAY HOUSE PRICE INDEX AND PROPERTY ECONOMIC REVIEW - Price growth acceleration continues, with expected peak believed to be nearing MARKET ANALYTICS JOHN LOOS: FNB HOME LOANS STRATEGIST 11-64912

More information

Trade and Industry Strategic Session Nedlac 2016

Trade and Industry Strategic Session Nedlac 2016 Overview of the current state of the Economy & the status of the Nine- Point Plan as an intervention tool. Business Response Trade and Industry Strategic Session Nedlac 2016 Overview of State of the Economy

More information

The Weekly Focus. A Market and Economic Update 25 June 2018

The Weekly Focus. A Market and Economic Update 25 June 2018 The Weekly Focus A Market and Economic Update 25 June 2018 Contents Newsflash...3 Economic Update...3 Rates...7 STANLIB Money Market Fund... 7 STANLIB Enhanced Yield Fund... 7 STANLIB Income Fund... 7

More information

Monitoring the Performance

Monitoring the Performance Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the Sector from 2014 Quarter 1 to 2017 Quarter 1 Factsheet 19 November 2017 South Africa s Sector Government broadly defined

More information

Consumer Confidence Rebounds

Consumer Confidence Rebounds M O N T H L Y R E P O R T D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E /1321/cc/2018 C O N S U M E R April 2018 Consumer Confidence Rebounds Consumer Confidence strengthened in March 2018. In this

More information

Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth

Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com July 28 Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth The economic landscape has changed significantly

More information

The Weekly Focus. A Market and Economic Update 18 June 2018

The Weekly Focus. A Market and Economic Update 18 June 2018 The Weekly Focus A Market and Economic Update 18 June 2018 Contents Newsflash...3 Economic Update...3 Rates...7 STANLIB Money Market Fund... 7 STANLIB Enhanced Yield Fund... 7 STANLIB Income Fund... 7

More information

The 5 th South African Employment report

The 5 th South African Employment report The 5 th South African Employment report The effect of education and skills and self employment on employment. The 5 th South African Employment Report Bragging a little SAER Salary and employment trends.

More information

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017 Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 10 16 Jul, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg Monday 10, 08.00 NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons.

More information

View of the month July 2017

View of the month July 2017 View of the month July 2017 Dear investor, What a great way to the end the month! The JSE All Share index closed at a record high on Monday 31 July 2017, ending the day above 55,000 points for the first

More information

T T Mboweni: Recent developments in South Africa s financial markets

T T Mboweni: Recent developments in South Africa s financial markets T T Mboweni: Recent developments in South Africa s financial markets Address by Mr T T Mboweni, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the Beeld/Investec Guinness Flight Economist of the Year Banquet,

More information

Hong Kong Economic Update

Hong Kong Economic Update Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 28 Hong Kong Economic Update Hong Kong s March export growth stayed low at 7.6 yoy, as exports to

More information

Consumers Remain Upbeat in January

Consumers Remain Upbeat in January M O N T H L Y R E P O R T R i D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E R i/1307/cc/2017 C O N S U M E R February 2018 Consumers Remain Upbeat in January Consumer Confidence stood unchanged in

More information

Home Loans. Housing review First quarter 2016

Home Loans. Housing review First quarter 2016 Home Loans Contents Economic overview Household sector overview Property sector overview House prices Building costs Land values Affordability of housing Outlook 7 Graphs 9 Statistics 11 Compiled by Jacques

More information

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2013 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2013 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT. INTRODUCTION. The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) evaluates progress in achieving the percent medium-term inflation objective.

More information

2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects

More information

Quarterly Bulletin. September South African Reserve Bank

Quarterly Bulletin. September South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin September 217 South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin September 217 No. 285 South African Reserve Bank All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored

More information

International economic developments

International economic developments International economic developments Global economic growth accelerated marginally from 3.8% in the first quarter of 217 to 4.% in the second quarter. The improvement in global real output growth resulted

More information

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United

More information

Global PMI. Global economy set for robust Q2 growth. June 8 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global PMI. Global economy set for robust Q2 growth. June 8 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global PMI Global economy set for robust Q2 growth June 8 th 2017 2 PMI indicates robust global growth in Q2 The global economy is on course for a robust second quarter, according to PMI survey data. The

More information

INVESTMENT NOTE NOT QUITE A NEW DAWN YET 11 JUNE 2018 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS

INVESTMENT NOTE NOT QUITE A NEW DAWN YET 11 JUNE 2018 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS INVESTMENT NOTE NOT QUITE A NEW DAWN YET DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS NOT QUITE A NEW DAWN YET Tuesday brought the news that the local economy contracted by much more than expected

More information

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Monday 2, 08.30 SWE: PMI Manufacturing (Sep) Index SEB Cons. Prev. PMI 60.5 -- 54.7 Manufacturing PMI showed an unexpectedly large fall in August.

More information

Performance Summary September 2015

Performance Summary September 2015 Performance Summary September 2015 SA Metropolitan Fire Service Superannuation Scheme Funds SA is responsible for investing the assets of the SA Metropolitan Fire Service Superannuation Scheme. In this

More information

Finland falling further behind euro area growth

Finland falling further behind euro area growth BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,

More information

INVESTMENT NOTE A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER 4 DECEMBER 2017 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS

INVESTMENT NOTE A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER 4 DECEMBER 2017 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS INVESTMENT NOTE A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS WEALTH INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTE themselves whether the news is good (or bad) but whether the good

More information

INVESTMENT NOTE LOWER INFLATION IMPROVES OUTLOOK 28 AUGUST 2017 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS

INVESTMENT NOTE LOWER INFLATION IMPROVES OUTLOOK 28 AUGUST 2017 DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS INVESTMENT NOTE LOWER INFLATION IMPROVES OUTLOOK DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS LOWER INFLATION IMPROVES OUTLOOK Inflation declined to below 5% for the first time since November 2015.

More information

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market

Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market Monitoring the Performance of the South African Labour Market An overview of the South African labour market for the Year ending 2011 5 May 2012 Contents Recent labour market trends... 2 A labour market

More information

Quarterly Bulletin. March South African Reserve Bank. March No. 267

Quarterly Bulletin. March South African Reserve Bank. March No. 267 March 213 South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin Quarterly Bulletin March 213 No. 267 South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin March 213 No. 267 South African Reserve Bank All rights reserved.

More information

Indicator Watch for the South African Commercial Property Market Cycle

Indicator Watch for the South African Commercial Property Market Cycle Indicator Watch for the South African Commercial Property Market Cycle April 2017 Cycle Position Summary Recent political events and the downgrading of South Africa s international credit rating have led

More information

March Quarterly Bulletin. No September Quarterly Bulletin. South African Reserve Bank. South African Reserve Bank

March Quarterly Bulletin. No September Quarterly Bulletin. South African Reserve Bank. South African Reserve Bank March 214 Quarterly Bulletin No. 271 September 215 Quarterly Bulletin South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin September 215 No. 277 South African Reserve Bank All rights

More information

Quarterly Bulletin. June South African Reserve Bank

Quarterly Bulletin. June South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin June 217 South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin June 217 No. 284 South African Reserve Bank All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval

More information

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key 5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016 2018 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on the information published as of 17 June 2016. ECB, EC and

More information

Quarterly Labour Market Report. December 2016

Quarterly Labour Market Report. December 2016 Quarterly Labour Market Report December 2016 MB13809 Dec 2016 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Hikina Whakatutuki - Lifting to make successful MBIE develops and delivers policy, services,

More information

Economic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives What might slower economic growth in Scotland mean for Scotland s income tax revenues? David Eiser Fraser of Allander Institute Abstract Income tax revenues now account for over 40%

More information

Interest Rates Continue to Climb

Interest Rates Continue to Climb SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the

More information

Consumer Vulnerability Index

Consumer Vulnerability Index www.quantec.co.za December 211 Consumer Vulnerability Index CONSUMER VULNERABILITY REMAIN AT LOWER LEVELS Quantec s Consumer Vulnerability Index (CVI) has recorded a stable pattern since the fourth quarter

More information

Markit economic overview

Markit economic overview Markit Economics Markit economic overview Global growth held back by emerging market stagnation August 11 2015 Developed world leads global growth higher for first time in four months Global economic growth

More information

Slowdown or recession?

Slowdown or recession? Slowdown or recession? BY DIRK HOFSCHIRE, CFA, VICE PRESIDENT, ASSET ALLOCATION RESEARCH, FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS 08/10/11 Recession risks rise, though mid-cycle slowdown may be the most likely scenario. The

More information

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.

More information

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20 Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and

More information

Performance Summary June 2015

Performance Summary June 2015 Performance Summary June 2015 SA Metropolitan Fire Service Superannuation Scheme Funds SA is responsible for investing the assets of the SA Metropolitan Fire Service Superannuation Scheme. In this summary,

More information

OUTLOOK THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK

OUTLOOK THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK OUTLOOK July 2017 I Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia (Inc) THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK Outlook is CCIWA s biannual analysis of the Western Australian economy.

More information

Global PMI. Global economy buoyed by rising US strength. June 12 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global PMI. Global economy buoyed by rising US strength. June 12 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global PMI Global economy buoyed by rising US strength June 12 th 2018 2 Global PMI rises but also brings signs of slower future growth At 54.0 in May, the headline JPMorgan Global Composite PMI, compiled

More information

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA Remarks by Mr AD Mminele, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the Citigroup Global Issues Seminar, held at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Istanbul,

More information

World trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010

World trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010 June 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS World trade rises 5.3% in Q1 2010 1 Highlights 2 The Canadian economy 2 The U.S. economy 3 Oil prices tumble after US jobs report 4 Flight to quality hits Canadian dollar 4

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy March 2018 Released on 22 March 2018 Outlook for Australia 1 Economic Activity

More information

Quarterly Economic Review

Quarterly Economic Review Quarterly Economic Review Introduction Global economic activity, despite remaining fragile and uneven, has maintained a firmer undertone from the second quarter of 213. However, the overall growth momentum

More information

Wage Trends in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Constructing an Earnings Series from Household Survey Data. Rulof Burger Derek Yu

Wage Trends in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Constructing an Earnings Series from Household Survey Data. Rulof Burger Derek Yu Wage Trends in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Constructing an Earnings Series from Household Survey Data Rulof Burger Derek Yu rulof@sun.ac.za Development Policy Research Unit DPRU Working Paper 07/117 ISBN:

More information

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 10 th May 2018 Opening Remarks by the Governor Three months ago, the MPC said that an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the next few years would be appropriate

More information

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. March 2014

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. March 2014 Macroeconomic and financial market developments March 2014 Background material to the abridged minutes of the Monetary Council meeting 25 March 2014 Article 3 (1) of the MNB Act (Act CXXXIX of 2013 on

More information

Forecast and Country Report for South Africa. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Plus Economics Advisory (Pty) Ltd

Forecast and Country Report for South Africa. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Plus Economics Advisory (Pty) Ltd Title Forecast and Country Report for South Africa Brief description This document provides a brief analysis of the South African economy in the first and second quarters of 2016. Furthermore, a forecast

More information

TRADE UNION MEMBERSHIP Statistical Bulletin

TRADE UNION MEMBERSHIP Statistical Bulletin TRADE UNION MEMBERSHIP 2016 Statistical Bulletin May 2017 Contents Introduction 3 Key findings 5 1. Long Term and Recent Trends 6 2. Private and Public Sectors 13 3. Personal and job characteristics 16

More information

Downloads from this web forum are for private, non commercial use only. Consult the copyright and media usage guidelines on

Downloads from this web forum are for private, non commercial use only. Consult the copyright and media usage guidelines on Econ 3x3 www.econ3x3.org A web forum for accessible policy relevant research and expert commentaries on unemployment and employment, income distribution and inclusive growth in South Africa Downloads from

More information

TBCSA Tourism Business Index

TBCSA Tourism Business Index 1 TBCSA Tourism Business Index 1 st Half of 2018 (January to June) 2 Table of Contents Contents 1. Introduction... 3 2. The Tourism Business Index... 4 2.1 The Consolidated Index... 4 2.2 The Accommodation

More information

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy June 1 Macro Economic Research Centre Economics Department http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/ This report is the revised English version of the May

More information

LETTER. economic COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 2015? JANUARY Canada. United States. Interest rates. Oil price. Canadian dollar.

LETTER. economic COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 2015? JANUARY Canada. United States. Interest rates. Oil price. Canadian dollar. economic LETTER JANUARY 215 COULD INTEREST RATES HEAD UP IN 215? For six years now, that is, since the financial crisis that shook the world in 28, Canadian interest rates have stayed low. The key interest

More information

Young People in South Africa

Young People in South Africa Young People in South Africa 19 June 2015 Risenga Maluleke DDG: Statistical Collections and Outreach Statistics South Africa Outline of Presentation Stats SA Macro Trends in Economy South African Income

More information

Quarterly Economic Monitor

Quarterly Economic Monitor Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year

More information

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy

Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy March 15 Macro Economic Research Centre Economics Department http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/ This report is the revised English version of the February

More information

BTMU Focus Latin America Mexico: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (3Q GDP and Current Monthly Indicators)

BTMU Focus Latin America Mexico: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (3Q GDP and Current Monthly Indicators) BTMU Focus Latin America Mexico: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (Q GDP and Current Monthly Indicators) MUFG UNION BANK Economic Research (New York) Hongrui Zhang Latin America Economist hozhang@us.mufg.jp

More information

Quarterly Labour Market Report. February 2015

Quarterly Labour Market Report. February 2015 Quarterly Labour Market Report February 2015 MB13090_1228 March 2015 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Hikina Whakatutuki - Lifting to make successful MBIE develops and delivers policy,

More information

US Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak

US Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak ISSN: 1791 35 35 November 26, 2013 Olga Kosma Economic Analyst okosma@eurobank.gr US Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak Real GDP accelerated to 2.8% q-o-q

More information

Monthly Economic Review

Monthly Economic Review Monthly Economic Review FEBRUARY 2018 Based on January 2018 data releases Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce Headlines UK GDP growth picked up in Q4, driven by stronger output from the services sector The

More information

Mr. Bäckström explains why price stability ought to be a central bank s principle monetary policy objective

Mr. Bäckström explains why price stability ought to be a central bank s principle monetary policy objective Mr. Bäckström explains why price stability ought to be a central bank s principle monetary policy objective Address by the Governor of the Bank of Sweden, Mr. Urban Bäckström, at Handelsbanken seminar

More information