2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey

Transcription

1 IRI and Cerulli Associates 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey May 2010 Key Findings For more information on Cerulli Quantitative Update : Annuities and Insurance 2010, please contact: Marketing & Business Development CAmarketing@cerulli.com The following are selected findings from the Cerulli Associates (CA) 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey, conducted in first quarter 2010 in partnership with the Insured Retirement Institute (IRI). This survey is a foundation of the Cerulli Quantitative Update : Annuities and Insurance 2010, the fourth iteration of this annual series. Survey participants represented executives from a range of insurance companies, variable annuity asset management firms, and broker/dealers. This summary is created exclusively for IRI and its members. Summary The outlook for the annuity industry is positive, although significant challenges persist. Deferred variable annuities (VAs), in particular, are expected to have fairly strong growth, as retirement income and principal protection continue to rate highly among industry executives and advisors. Exhibit 1.09: Qualified and Nonqualified Annuity Growth Opportunities, Asset Manager and Insurer Perspectives, 2010 Strong Weak Variable annuities: insurance company perspective Variable annuities: asset manager perspective Fixed annuities: insurance company perspective Qualified Nonqualified Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 1

2 [Summary] Additionally, CA has also observed an increase in the consideration of annuities for wealth transfer purposes, particularly to provide retirement income to heirs while also providing a degree of spendthrift protection. As wealth transfer immediately follows retirement income generation in the investor lifecycle and frequently comes with little warning Cerulli contends that planning for both stages should be done in tandem. Exhibit 2.11: Potential Growth of Insurance Products for Wealth Transfer Needs, Broker/Dealer Perspective, 2010 Deferred fixed annuities (includes indexed annuities) 2.9 Immediate variable annuities 2.9 Fixed-income securities 3.1 Long-term care insurance 3.3 Whole life insurance 3.3 Variable universal life insurance Immediate fixed annuities Deferred variable annuities Universal life insurance (non-variable) Weak Strong Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 2

3 [Summary] Demographic need has tremendous to drive VA sales, given the need for guaranteed lifetime income and principal protection that can be provided only by an annuity. Even so, the VA industry is in critical need of an infusion of new cash. According to the IRI, gross VA sales were $125 billion during 2009, down from $155 billion in 2008 and the historic high of $187 billion in 2007 representing the lowest level of industry sales since Meanwhile, VA net sales were just $17 billion in 2009, or 14% of gross sales, the lowest level since IRI began measuring these statistics in Contrary to expectation, VA sales did not increase when the markets began to look more favorable gross sales held steady throughout all four quarters of 2009 and only 33% of net sales were generated in the second half of the year. Clearly, the financial crisis of 2008 continues to have ramifications for the VA industry. When evaluating insurance companies with which to partner, broker/dealers are most likely to consider the insurer s financial-strength rating and living benefits. The top criteria noted by broker/dealers mirrored that of advisors, with the exception of wholesaling, indicating a gap that needs to be addressed by insurers when working with broker/dealers and advisors. Exhibit 4.04: Importance of Factors in Broker/Dealer Selection of Variable Annuity Provider, 2010 Very important Not important Financial strength rating Living benefits Wholesaler relationship Investment options Pricing Death benefits Compensation structure Annuitization options Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 3

4 [Summary] Financial-strength rating also ranked as the most utilized attribute insurers stress to position their products in Guaranteed lifetime income strategies were also important. In the current market, insurers must grapple with the perception from advisors and consumers regarding augmented default risk after all, a guarantee is only as robust as the strength of the guarantor. Exhibit 11.06: Attributes Insurers Use to Position Variable Annuities in the Current Market, 2010 Highly utilized Not utilized Financialstrength rating of insurer Advisor meetings (roadshows, other group meetings) Guaranteed lifetime income: GMWB Wholesaler training on product features Wholesaler training on product positioning Principal protection: death benefits Principal protection: living benefits Guaranteed lifetime income: annuitization Guaranteed accumulation: GMAB and GMDB Ability to include your firm s VAs on a fee-based platform Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 4

5 Product Development Variable annuity and variable life product developers consider distribution-related criteria highly valuable when designing products. Competitive necessity also impacts product design, yet to a lesser degree than in previous years. This reflects the de-risking trends of 2009, in which product one-upmanship took a back seat to risk mitigation. Cerulli contends that, in addition to seeking advisor input on product development issues, insurers would be wise to interject risk management strategies and positioning approaches into the conversation. Our research shows that 72% of advisors consider living benefits a key factor when selecting a VA provider and 80% value financial strength ratings giving insurers the perfect opening for discussing the reasons behind de-risking and why less generous benefit levels do not necessarily correlate to insurer health. Exhibit 4.10: Factors Influencing Variable Annuity and Life Insurance Product Development, 2010 Very important Not important Advisor and/or broker/dealer input Distribution channels served Clients served (e.g., wealth tier) Competitive necessity (keeping up with the competition) Establish competitive advantage (early mover) Other Focus group findings Analyst Note: The other category includes cost benefit analysis and managing the needs of the market. Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 5

6 [Product Development] A hot topic within the VA industry is the development of simplified VAs, described as those that offer selected guaranteed benefits inside a single, low-cost structure. Simplified annuities are intended to be marketed through registered investment advisors, although versions are often prepared for distribution through more conventional channels, as well. Nearly two-thirds of insurers surveyed by Cerulli indicated that they either offer simplified annuities, or plan to do so in the coming months. Cerulli contends that developing a product in which low fees and the most desirable guaranteed benefits co-exist will be a challenge. For example, the guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) is considered an essential component of a simplified VA according to our research, yet this rider will need to be less complex and less costly to be appropriate options. Further, half of broker/dealers are not likely to promote simplified VAs. Independent broker/dealers, however, are more likely to consider simplified annuities than broker/dealers in other channels. Exhibit 12.12: Simplified VA Opportunities, Broker/Dealer Perspective, 2010 Somewhat likely 16.7% Very likely 33.3% Not at all likely 50% Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 6

7 [Product Development] More than half of industry executives expect the base level of mortality and expense risk charges assessed on VAs to remain unchanged in the next one to three years. Yet, another 35% of survey respondents expect that these fees will increase, although this figure is consistent with the prior year s assessment. Cerulli contends that the latter figure will prove unlikely, as the timing and level of benefits covered through the base contract are reasonably predictable. However, the same does not apply to guaranteed withdrawal benefits, for which half of industry executives expect fee increases, indicating that this aspect of risk mitigation is not over. Exhibit 9.10: Expected Changes in Variable Annuity Insurance Charges, Industry Perspective, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 14% 51% 35% Base mortality and expense risk charges 9% 80% 11% Administrative charges Increase Stay the same Decrease Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 7

8 Asset Management The market crisis elicited a new look at the link between the asset management and insurance functions of the VA, as the hedging strategies insurers use to mitigate risks associated with living benefits expanded to the investment options that underlie the insurance guarantee. More than one-third of insurers attribute at least half of VA target-risk subaccount sales to mandated asset allocation requirements associated with guaranteed living benefits thereby impacting how asset managers market their funds for inclusion on a VA subaccount platform. Exhibit 6.19: Percentage of Variable Annuity Target-Risk Fund Sales Attributable to Living Benefit Requirements, % to 90% 35.7% Less than 10% 42.9% 10% to 49% 21.4% Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 8

9 Distribution and Product Positioning The annuity industry is overwhelmingly a commission-reliant business, a situation that is unlikely to change materially even as firms develop products for fee-based advisors. Compensation structures that combine a modest front-end commission with ongoing trails a structure presently used in the majority of VA sales have the greatest prospect for growth. There is also for the advisor segment CA calls fee-and-commission mix (that is, those who derive between 10% and 50% of their revenues from fees), which can also help insurers reach dually registered advisors. Exhibit 10.25: Expected Changes in Compensation Structure in Next Two Years, Insurer Perspective, % 9.1% 80% 60% 41.7% 54.5% 41.7% 50.0% 60.0% 77.8% 40% 20% 0% 58.3% Commissions: Front-end only 36.4% Commissions: Trails only 58.3% Commissions: Combination of modest front-end and trails 50.0% 40.0% Fee-and commissionmix (between 10% and 50% of advisor revenues attributable to fees) Fee-based (between 50% and 90% of advisor revenues attributable to fees) 22.2% Fee-only (more than 90% of advisor revenues attributable to fees) Increase Stay the same Decrease Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 9

10 [Distribution and Product Positioning] Industry executives see dwindling, but still modest, growth opportunities for unified managed accounts with an insurance wrapper. While advisor adoption of such products has been lukewarm to date, Cerulli will continue to monitor the success of various partnerships in this space, as it represents a ly new avenue to reach annuity-averse advisors. Exhibit 12.05: Unified Managed Account Distribution Assessment, Industry Perspective, Strong Weak Key Findings u 2010 Annuities and Insurance Survey u May 2010 u 10