Waikato Vital Signs Consultancy Report

Transcription

1 Waikato Vital Signs Consultancy Report March 2016

2 Waikato Vital Signs Consultancy Report C o m m i s s i o n e d b y M o m e n t u m W a i k a t o C o m m u n i t y F o u n d a t i o n March 2016 Te Rūnanga Tātari Tatauranga National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis Te Whare Wānanga o Waikato The University of Waikato Private Bag 3105 Hamilton 3240 Waikato, New Zealand shefalip@waikato.ac.nz visit us at: Referencing information: Pawar, S. & Day, A. (2016). Waikato Vital Signs Consultancy Report. National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis. University of Waikato. Hamilton. Disclaimer While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and accurate at the time of publication/release, changed circumstances after publication may impact on the accuracy of that information. We shall not be liable for any loss suffered through the use, directly or indirectly, of any information contained in this report. I

3 Acknowledgements NIDEA and Momentum Waikato wish to specifically thank the Waikato Regional Council for providing us with the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset for use in this report. We also wish to personally mention the various government agencies from which data was sourced for this report. These include Statistics New Zealand and particularly the NZ Social Indicators which are the most up-to-date data on a range of key New Zealand social statistics. Other agencies whose surveys and administrative datasets we used were the Police, Child Youth and Family, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Social Development and the Ministry of Education. II

4 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 1 Introduction Data Sources Part A: Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region Waikato District Age and Sex Ethnicity Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) Projected demographic changes, & Hamilton City Age and Sex Ethnicity Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) Projected demographic changes, & Matamata-Piako District Age and Sex Ethnicity Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) Projected demographic changes, & Selected socio-demographic measures from the census Part B: Waikato Vital Signs Theme Areas and Selected Indicators Vital Sign: Children & Youth Child abuse Teen fertility Youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) Youth suicide Vital Sign: Community Caring and volunteer work Community engagement Community pride Crime Motor vehicle casualties III

5 2.2.6 Overall life satisfaction Perception of safety Social connectedness Voter turnout Vital Sign: Culture & Arts Attending/participating in arts Te Reo Māori speakers Vital Sign: Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Home ownership Household crowding Income inequality Unemployment Vital Sign: Education Educational attainment No qualification Participation in early childhood education Qualification of school leavers Vital Sign: Environment Environmental attitudes River water quality Soil quality Threatened environments Waste recycling Vital Sign: Health Cigarette smoking Life expectancy Obesity Psychological distress Vital Sign: Recreation Physical activity Glossary References Appendix: Part A Appendix: Part B IV

6 List of Tables Table 1: Waikato Vital Signs themes and indicators Table 2: Key demographic characteristics of the Waikato VS Region, Table A-1: Some key demographic indicators, Waikato District compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, Table A- 2: Some key demographic indicators, Hamilton City compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, Table A-3: Some key demographic indicators, Matamata-Piako District compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, List of Figures Figure 1: Boundary map for the Waikato Vital Signs (VS) Region, Waikato Region and the Waikato DHB area Figure A-1: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Waikato District in Figure A-2: Estimated resident population of Waikato District disaggregated by sex and age group, Figure A-3: Estimated resident population of Waikato District disaggregated by ethnic groups, Figure A-4: Distribution of the Māori population across the Waikato District, Figure A-5: Age and sex profile of the two major ethnic groups in the Waikato District, Figure A-6: Distribution of the Waikato district population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in Figure A-7: Estimated and projected (medium series) resident population of Waikato District, Figure A-8: Projected change in the resident population of the Waikato District by age group; and Figure A-9: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of Waikato District Figure A-10: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Waikato District.. 30 Figure A-11: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Waikato District, Figure A-12: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Hamilton City in Figure A-13: Estimated resident population of Hamilton City disaggregated by sex and age group, Figure A-14: Estimated resident population of Hamilton City disaggregated by ethnic groups, Figure A-15: Distribution of the Māori population across Hamilton City, Figure A-16: Age and sex profile of the four major ethnic groups in Hamilton City, Figure A-17: Distribution of the Hamilton City population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in Figure A-18: Estimated and projected (medium series) resident population of Hamilton City, V

7 Figure A-19: Projected change in the resident population of Hamilton City by age group; and Figure A-20: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of Hamilton City Figure A- 21: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Hamilton City Figure A-22: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Hamilton City, Figure A-23: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Matamata-Piako District in Figure A-24: Estimated resident population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by sex and age group, Figure A-25: Estimated resident population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by ethnic groups, Figure A-26: Distribution of the Māori population across the Matamata-Piako District, Figure A-27: Age and sex profile of the two major ethnic groups in Matamata-Piako District, Figure A-28: Distribution of the Matamata-Piako District population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in Figure A-29: Estimated and projected resident population of the Matamata-Piako District, Figure A-30: Projected change in the resident population of the Matamata-Piako District by age group; and Figure A-31: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of the Matamata-Piako District Figure A-32: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Matamata-Piako District Figure A-33: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Matamata- Piako District, Figure A-34: Socio-demographic snapshot Figure A-35: Socio-demographic snapshot Figure A-36: Socio-demographic snapshot Figure A-37: Socio-demographic snapshot Figure B-1: Number (annual per 10,000) of children and young people aged 0-16 years reported (and substantiated) for abuse or neglect; Figure B-2: Type of child abuse (emotional, physical, sexual or neglect) as a proportion of all reported and substantiated cases; Figure B-3: Number of live births per 1,000 women aged under 20 years; Figure B-4: Number of live births per 1,000 Māori teens aged years compared to all women in this age group; Figure B-5: Proportion of the youth (15-24 years) who are not in employment, education or training (NEET); Figure B-6: NEET rates disaggregated by broad ethnic groups; Figure B-7: Number of youths (15-24 years) committing suicide per 100,000 population disaggregated by sex; New Zealand, Figure B-8: Youth suicide rate for males and females; Waikato DHB area and New Zealand, aggregated VI

8 Figure B-9: Youth suicide rate for males and females disaggregated for Māori and non-māori; Waikato DHB area and New Zealand, aggregated Figure B-10: Proportion of the usually resident population aged 15 years or more who reported doing unpaid caring and volunteering work, Census 2001, 2006 and Figure B-11: Proportion of the 15+ year population doing unpaid caring and volunteering work disaggregated by broad age groups, Census Figure B-12: Proportion of the 15+ year population doing unpaid caring and volunteering work disaggregated by broad ethnic groups, Census Figure B-13: Level of agreement of the surveyed 15+ year population on whether they have enough say in what their council does; 2007, 2010 and Figure B-14: Level of agreement of the surveyed 15+ year population on whether they feel a sense of pride in the way their city or district looks and feels; 2007, 2010 and Figure B-15: Number of offences per 10,000 population recorded by the police annually; 2007/08, 2010/11 and 2013/ Figure B-16: Number of people seriously injured or killed in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population; 2009, 2011 and Figure B-17: Fatality rates in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population disaggregated by five year age groups; New Zealand, Figure B-18: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who self-reported to be satisfied or very satisfied with how they feel about their life as a whole; 2008, 2010, 2012 and Figure B-19: Overall life satisfaction (proportion satisfied or very satisfied ) of surveyed 15+ year population disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups, New Zealand Figure B-20: Safeness index measuring how safe the surveyed population aged 15 years or more feel walking home alone at night; 2007, 2010, Figure B-21: Proportion of the surveyed 15+ year population who reported feeling lonely none of the time in the four weeks preceding the survey; 2008, 2010, 2012 and Figure B-22: Social connectedness (feeling lonely none of the time ) disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; New Zealand, Figure B-23: Enrolled electors (residents and ratepayers) casting a vote in local authority councillor elections (regional council elections in the case of Waikato Region); 2007, 2010 and Figure B-24: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have attended and/or participated in at least one arts event (or venue) in the 12 months preceding the survey; 2005, 2008, 2011 and Figure B-25: Attendance and/or participation in arts disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; New Zealand, Figure B-26: Proportion of the Māori population who reported that they could hold a conversation about everyday things in Te Reo Māori; Census 2001, 2006 and Figure B-27: Proportion of Te Reo Māori speakers in the Māori population disaggregated by broad age groups; Census Figure B-28: Ratio of Waikato Region s nominal GDP per capita to that for total New Zealand; Figure B-29: Proportion of the population aged 15 years or more who live in owned or partly owned residences; Census 2001, 2006, Figure B-30: Home ownership disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; Waikato VS Region, Census Figure B-31: Proportion of the population (in private occupied dwellings) living in crowded conditions; Census 2006 and VII

9 Figure B-32: Income inequality, P80/20 ratio by after housing costs (AHC) and before housing costs (BHC); New Zealand, Figure B-33: Gini coefficient; Waikato Region, Figure B-34: Unemployment rate (annual June), Waikato Region and New Zealand; Figure B-35: Unemployment rate (annual June) by major ethnic groups; 2011, 2013 and Figure B-36: Proportion of the population aged years who have completed a level 4 or higher-level qualification; Census 2006 and Figure B-37: Educational attainment of year olds disaggregated by major ethnic groups; Census Figure B-38: Proportion of the usually resident population aged 15 years or more with no tertiary qualifications; Census 2006 and Figure B-39: Proportion with no tertiary qualifications disaggregated by major ethnic groups; Census Figure B-40: Proportion of the estimated population of children aged 3 and 4 years who are enrolled in an early childhood education centre or a home-based education programme; Figure B-41: Participation in early childhood education for Māori children aged 3 and 4 years, compared to total New Zealand; Figure B-42: Proportion of secondary school leavers who leave school with a National Certificate of Educational Attainment (NCEA) Level 2 or 3 qualification; 2010, 2012 and Figure B-43: Qualification of school leavers (NCEA Level 2 or 3) disaggregated by broad ethnic groups, Figure B-44: Attitude of the surveyed 15+ year population towards the environment, measured on the 6-item New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale; 2000, 2004, 2008 and Figure B-45: River quality measured at various Waikato river sampling sites between 1995 and Figure B-46: Proportion of the monitoring sites across the Waikato Region meeting five or more soil quality targets; Figure B-47: Percentage of the legally protected land area with indigenous cover that is chronically or acutely threatened Figure B-48: Assessment by surveyed respondents aged 18 years or more on the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area; 2003, 2006 and Figure B-49: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who reported being a current smoker; 2006/07 and 2011/ Figure B-50: Proportion of current smokers disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/ Figure B-51: Proportion of current smokers disaggregated by broad ethnic groups; 2011/ Figure B-52: Life expectancy at birth for males and females; 2005/07 and 2012/ Figure B-53: Life expectancy at birth for Māori and non-māori; 2012/ Figure B-54: Prevalence (unadjusted) of obesity in the population aged 15 years or more; 2006/07 and 2011/ Figure B-55: Unadjusted prevalence of obesity disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/ Figure B-56: Unadjusted prevalence of obesity disaggregated for Māori and non-māori; 2011/ Figure B-57: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have high or very high levels of psychological distress as measured on the Kessler-10 (K-10) scale; 2011/ Figure B-58: Prevalence of psychological distress disaggregated by age groups; 2011/ Figure B-59: Prevalence of psychological distress for Māori and non-māori; 2011/ VIII

10 Figure B-60: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years and over who reported having done at least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity (or equivalent) on five or more days in the past week; 2006/07 and 2011/ Figure B-61: Physical activity disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/ List of Appendix Tables Appendix Table 1 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Waikato District disaggregated by sex and age Appendix Table 2 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033) population of Waikato District disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Appendix Table 3 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033) population of Hamilton City disaggregated by sex and age Appendix Table 4 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Hamilton City disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Appendix Table 5 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by sex and age Appendix Table 6 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Appendix Table 7: Surveys used as a data source for the Waikato Vital Signs indicators and measures List of Appendix Figures Appendix Figure 1 Fatality rates in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population; OECD countries Appendix Figure 2 Income inequality using the Gini coefficient, OECD countries; 2014 or latest available year Appendix Figure 3 Annual unemployment rate for year population, OECD countries, Appendix Figure 4 Enrolment of 3 4-year-olds in early childhood education, OECD countries, 2014 (reference year 2012) Appendix Figure 5 Number of youths (15-24 years) committing suicide per 100,000 population disaggregated by sex for OECD countries; 2012 or nearest available year IX

11 Executive Summary This consultancy report has been commissioned by Momentum Waikato Community Foundation and undertaken by the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), University of Waikato. Part A of the report gives a brief socio-demographic profile of Waikato District, Hamilton City and the Matamata-Piako District (current and projected) and Part B presents the Waikato Vital Signs report based on selected Vital Signs indicators. Data for this report has been extracted and analysed using various survey and administrative datasets sourced from Statistics New Zealand, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Health and the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by the Waikato Regional Council. PART A: Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region The three Territorial Authority (TA) areas, Waikato District, Hamilton City and the Matamata-Piako District make up the pilot area of the Waikato Vista Signs programme. Waikato District Made up of 31 Census Area Units (CAUs), Waikato District has an estimated resident population of approximately 69,500 in The district has seen substantial growth with its resident population increasing by 16.8 per cent over the period (average annual growth rate of 1.9 per cent). Males slightly outnumber females with the current sex ratio of 102 males per 100 females. The District has a much smaller proportion (12.5 per cent) of 65+ year olds among its residents compared to both, the Waikato Region and total New Zealand. A quarter of the residents of Waikato District identify with the Māori ethnic group, higher than the regional and national average. Over half of the Māori population is aged under 25 years compared to just over one-third among the European/Other ethnic group. More than a quarter of the Waikato District population lives in areas of high socio-economic deprivation, which is higher than the regional and national average. The population of Waikato District is projected to increase by approximately 9.8 per cent over the next eight years and 11.1 per cent over the next ten years reaching 84,800 by Population growth in the district is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at younger ages likely to either increase only marginally or decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly. P a g e 1

12 The number of people identifying with the Pasifika ethnic group is projected to more than double over the twenty-year period, Significant growth in numbers is also likely to occur among the Asian population of the district. In comparison, the Māori population growth is unlikely to be as significant. Hamilton City Hamilton City is the largest Territorial Authority (TA) area within the Waikato District made up of 46 CAUs with a total estimated resident population of 156,800 in The population of Hamilton has grown by 16.3 per cent over the nine years since the last census in Females outnumber males with the current sex ratio of 94 males per 100 females. The city has a much younger age profile with only 11.7 per cent of its resident population aged 65 years or over, which is significantly lower than the regional and national average. Just over one in five residents of Hamilton City identify with the Māori ethnic group, similar to the proportion seen across the Waikato Region but much higher than the national average. Compared to other TAs across the Waikato Region, Hamilton has a much higher proportion of Asians among its residents. The age profiles of the Māori and the Pasifika population in Hamilton (as well as in the wider Waikato region and total New Zealand) are much younger, compared to not only the combined European/Other group but also the Asian ethnic group. Approximately 27.7 per cent of the Hamilton City population lives in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, which is much higher than the regional and national average. The population of Hamilton is projected to increase by approximately 11.0 per cent over the next eight years and 11.5 per cent over the ten years after that, reaching 194,200 by The projected population growth in the city is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at younger ages likely to either increase only marginally or decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly. The population of Pacific peoples and Asians across Hamilton is projected to double over the next twenty years. By 2033, approximately two in every ten residents of the city will be Asian and one in ten Pasifika. In comparison, the Māori population growth is unlikely to be as significant. P a g e 2

13 Matamata-Piako District The Matamata-Piako District is made up of 13 CAUs and an estimated population of 33,600 in The population of this district has grown at a significantly slower rate compared to Hamilton City and Waikato District; an increase of only 7.7 per cent over the last nine years ( ). Females marginally outnumber males with the current sex ratio of 98 males per 100 females. Matamata-Piako has the oldest age profile among the three TAs with 18.4 per cent of its resident population aged 65 years or over, which is a higher than the regional and national average. Compared to the other two districts and the Waikato Region as a whole, Matamata-Piako has a smaller proportion of Māori and Pasifika ethnic groups among its residents. Almost nine of every ten residents belong to the European/Other ethnic group. Only 10.6 per cent the Matamata-Piako District population lives in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, which is a much smaller proportion then for the other two districts of Hamilton and Waikato, as well as the regional and national average. The population of the district is projected to increase by only 3.0 per cent over the next eight years and 1.2 per cent over the ten years after that, reaching 35,000 by The projected population growth in Matamata-Piako is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at all younger ages likely to decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly. The population of Pacific peoples and Asians in the district is likely to increase significantly over the next twenty years. In comparison, the Māori population growth is unlikely to be as marked. P a g e 3

14 PART B: Waikato Vital Signs Theme Areas and Selected Indicators Vital Signs is a programme that measures the vitality of local communities and provides a guide for community action and support. It works by collecting data and publishing reports on significant social and economic trends to show how each community is faring in major quality of life areas such as health, culture and arts, and community. The eight Waikato Vital Signs theme areas are: Vital Sign Children & Youth Vital Sign - Community Vital Sign Culture and Arts Vital Sign - Economy Vital Sign - Education Vital Sign - Environment Vital Sign - Health Vital Sign - Recreation A total of 34 indicators were selected under these theme areas by following a set of good practice criteria to ensure a credible and manageable set of well-being measures. More indicators are likely to be added after community consultation, provided they meet the indicator selection criteria. The findings for selected indicators are geographically disaggregated using regional boundaries defined by the corresponding dataset - Waikato Vital Signs Region or the Waikato Region or the Waikato DHB area or the Waikato Police District, with comparative data for total New Zealand included as a benchmark where possible. Figure 1 shows the social wellbeing outcomes for 27 of the 34 indicators for Waikato 1 relative to the outcomes for total New Zealand. The data for seven indicators was only at the national level and therefore excluded. The circle represents the average outcome for New Zealand for the most recent period. The spokes represent the most recent outcome for Waikato. A spoke falling outside the green circle means the average outcome for Waikato is higher than the national average and vice versa. The further the spoke is from the circle, more pronounced the difference. 1 Waikato refers to either the Waikato Vital Signs Region, the Waikato Region as defined by the census boundaries, the Waikato DHB area or the Waikato Police District depending on the availability of data for the individual indicators. See body of report for more details. P a g e 4

15 A spoke with a green dot indicates that the outcome for Waikato is better or similar to that for total New Zealand. A spoke with an orange dot indicates that the outcome for Waikato is poorer than that for total New Zealand. It should be noted that the magnitude of difference in outcomes for Waikato and New Zealand cannot be directly compared across different indicators. Figure 1: Waikato Vital Signs indicator outcomes relative to New Zealand Page 5

16 The findings for each of the 34 indicators are summarised below. Vital Sign Children & Youth Child abuse In 2015, across the Waikato Vital Signs Region, 150 children (per 10,000) aged 0-16 years were reported for one or more cases of abuse, which is higher than the national average. Teen fertility The teenage fertility rate across the Waikato Region remains higher than that for total New Zealand over the entire period. Youth not in Education, Employment Training (NEET rates) The NEET rates in the Waikato Region are slightly higher than that seen nationally. Youth suicide Nationally, youth suicide rates declined from the peak of 28.7 deaths per 100,000 in 1995, reaching a low of 15.2 in 2010 and then once again rising to 23.4 per 100,000 in Male suicide rates remain significantly higher than that for women. Vital Sign: Community Caring and volunteer work Across the Waikato Vital Sign Region, 27.2 per cent of the population aged 15 years or more reported being involved in some form of caring and volunteer work; either looking after a member of own or another household who is ill or has a disability, or doing other helping or voluntary work for or through an organisation, group or marae. Community engagement The Waikato Region scored relatively low on the Agreement Index in 2013 (46.2), indicating that a majority of the surveyed population across the region would like to have more say in what their local council does. Community pride There is a high level of agreement across the Waikato Region with the statement You feel a sense of pride in the way your city/district looks and feels. P a g e 6

17 Crime The number of recorded offences across the Waikato Police District in 2013/14 were 908 per 100,000 population; which is higher than the national average. A similar pattern is seen in the previous two years. Motor vehicle casualties Compared to the national average, the Waikato Vital Sign Region has a higher proportion of the total population either seriously injured or killed in a motor vehicle accident in 2013 (69 per 100,000). A similar pattern is seen in 2009 and Overall life satisfaction Across the Waikato Region, approximately 85 per cent of the surveyed respondents in 2014 reported feeling satisfied or very satisfied with their life as a whole and this proportion is marginally higher than the national average. Perception of safety The overall Waikato Region recorded a safeness index of 65.9 in the 2013 Survey, which is marginally higher than in the previous years. Social connectedness In 2014, 63.3 per cent of the survey respondents self-reported feeling an absence of loneliness. Voter turnout Voter turnout in the Waikato Regional Council elections has significantly declined from approximately 49 per cent recorded in 2001 to just under 40 per cent in Vital Sign: Culture & Arts Attending/participating in arts Nationally in 2014, the proportion of the surveyed population attending and/or participating in at least one arts event (or venue) in the last 12 months (of the survey) has increased from the level recorded in the 2008 survey. Attendance and participation in the arts is lower in the Waikato Region. P a g e 7

18 Te Reo Māori speakers Less than a quarter of the Māori population across the Waikato Vital Sign Region reported in the 2013 Census that they could hold a conversation about everyday things in Te Reo Māori, slightly higher than the national average. Vital - Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The nominal GDP per capita of the Waikato Region has increased over the period but remains lower than the national average. Home ownership Over the past three censuses the percentage of households across the Waikato Vital Signs Region that own the dwelling they occupy has decreased, suggesting a move away from a long standing national preference for home ownership. A similar pattern is seen nationally. Household crowding The Waikato DHB area has 8.9 per cent of its resident population living in crowded households in This is lower than the national average of 10.1 per cent and has declined from the level recorded in 2006 Income inequality In New Zealand, income inequality as measured by the P80/P20 ratio has been increasing over the period, with the income inequality after adjusting for housing costs higher than before adjustment for housing costs (as housing costs generally make up a greater proportion of household income for lower income than for higher income households). Unemployment The unemployment rate across the Waikato Region follows a similar trajectory as that nationally and is marginally higher than the New Zealand rate over most of the period. Vital Education Educational attainment Across the Waikato Vital Signs Region, the proportion of the adult population aged years with a level 4 or higher qualification is less than half (47.9 per cent), well below the national average of 52.4 per cent. P a g e 8

19 No qualification Compared to the national average of 12.5 per cent, a higher proportion of the adult population aged years across the Waikato Vital Signs Region reported having no formal qualifications (15.9 per cent). Participation in early childhood education The proportion of three and four year olds enrolled in early childhood education (ECE) across the Waikato Vital Signs Region has remained mostly unchanged over the period and is much lower than the national average. Qualification of school leavers Across the Waikato Vital Signs Region, approximately three-quarters of the students who left school in 2014 had a qualification of NCEA Level 2 or 3. This proportion has increased over the period but is lower than the national average. Vital - Environment Environmental attitudes Approximately nine out of every ten people surveyed across the Waikato Region assessed themselves to be pro-ecological or mid-ecological in their attitude towards the environment in River water quality The average proportion of unsatisfactory river water samples for ecological water quality across the Waikato Region is largely unchanged from Water quality at ten Waikato River sites is mostly stable over the last ten years, with some notable improving trends (total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, arsenic) as well as worsening trends (nitrate, biochemical oxygen demand). Soil quality Between 2003 and 2013, the percentage of soil quality monitoring sites in the Waikato region which met five or more soil quality targets decreased from 89% to 80%. Threatened environments Most of the Waikato region's land area is in non-indigenous cover with approximately 28% covered by indigenous (native) vegetation.17 per cent of this area (399,459.2 ha) is legally protected for conservation and biodiversity protection purposes (399,459.2 ha, which is 59 per cent of the region's indigenous cover). P a g e 9

20 Waste recycling The majority of the surveyed population across the Waikato Region felt that the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area have either stayed the same or are improved in the last few years. Vital Health Cigarette smoking One out of every five people aged 15 years or more across the Waikato Region reported being a current smoker in the 2011/14 period. This is higher than the national average. Life expectancy Across New Zealand, life expectancy for women is 83 years, compared with 80 for men, a smaller difference than the average OECD gender gap of five years, with a life expectancy of 82 years for women and 77 years for men. Obesity The prevalence of obesity has increased both, regionally as well as nationally. Well over one in three youth and adults aged 15 years or more are obese I n the Waikato DHB area, which is much higher than the national average. Psychological distress Approximately 5.7 per cent of the population aged 15 years or more residing in the Waikato DHB area reported suffering from high or very high levels of psychological distress which is similar to the national average. Vital Sign Recreation Physical activity Approximately 46.3 per cent of the people aged 15 years or more living in the Waikato DHB area participate in regular physical activity, lower than that recorded for total New Zealand. P a g e 10

21 Introduction This consultancy report was commissioned by Momentum Waikato Community Foundation and undertaken by the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), University of Waikato. It is presented in two parts: Part A presents a brief socio-demographic profile of each of the three Territorial Authority (TA) areas which constitute the Momentum Waikato Vital Signs 2016 Pilot Region Waikato District, Hamilton City and the Matamata-Piako District. Part B presents the Waikato Vital Signs report based on selected Vital Signs indicators which will inform Momentum Waikato s evidence based approach towards investing in the community. The data and findings contained in this report aim to provide a better understanding of the characteristics of the communities being served, as well as the demographic changes projected to occur in the resident population of these communities over the next eighteen years. Vital Signs is a programme that measures the vitality of local communities and provides a guide for community action and support. It works by collecting data and publishing reports on significant social and economic trends to show how each community is faring in major quality of life areas such as health, arts and culture, and community. Canada led the way with the introduction of the programme by the Toronto Foundation in 2001, after a group of civic leaders came up with a new way to engage their community in understanding and monitoring the health and vitality of Toronto. Coordinated by Community Foundations of Canada, it became a nationwide programme in As of 2015, 49 communities across Canada are participating in the Vital Signs programme, either by producing a report or acting on findings from previous reports. Based on the Canadian model, Vital Signs was launched in 2013 in the United Kingdom (UK), and by 2015, 13 community foundations were involved. Currently more than 65 communities in Canada and around the world, including in Turkey, Australia and Ireland, are using Vital Signs to focus resource allocation and support to where it will have the greatest impact within the community. In New Zealand, the first Vital Signs report was undertaken by the Acorn Foundation for the Western Bay of Plenty and released in The Acorn Foundation is a philanthropic community group that funds projects and areas of need in the Western Bay of Plenty Community. 2 The Vital Signs report is aimed at helping the Acorn Foundation to direct donations to where they are 2 Page 11

22 most needed within the area. The report methodology used an online survey to capture the responses of residents of the Western Bay of Plenty sub-region aged over 17 years, with 1,546 people participating (Acorn Foundation, 2015). 3 Report Structure and Scope Part A: Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region The demographic profile of each of the three TAs is presented as follows: Current estimated resident population disaggregated by age (0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 75+ years), sex (male, female), ethnicity (Māori, Pacific peoples, Asian, Middle Eastern/Latin American/African or MELAA and European/Other including New Zealander) and socio-economic deprivation as defined by the New Zealand Index of Deprivation. The demographic changes projected to occur in the resident population over the next eighteen years ( and ) disaggregated by age and ethnicity. Selected measures from the census and survey data to present a socio-demographic snapshot of each district. Where relevant, these data are spatially presented at the census area unit (CAU) level. Comparisons are drawn with the Waikato Region and total New Zealand population including comparison with the previous 2006 census where required. Waikato Vital Signs Themes and Indicators Waikato Vital Signs is divided into eight themes based on the Vital Signs framework. Within these themes, a number of social and economic indicators have been selected based on the criteria detailed below. Indicators are statistical measures which show the state or level of a given variable and include social, economic and environmental categories. The indicators used in this report are a mixture of objective measures, e.g., motor vehicle casualties; subjective measures, e.g., overall life satisfaction, and those that predict later outcomes, such as cigarette smoking (Ministry of Social Development, 2010). These initial indicators were selected by Momentum Waikato in consultation with NIDEA. It is likely more indicators will be added to the programme after community consultation, provided they meet the selection criteria which was used to select these first set of indicators. 3 The sampling error was calculated to be ±2.5 per cent (at a 95 per cent confidence interval). Data was weighted by age, sex, ethnicity and residential ward. Page 12

23 Criteria for indicator selection The selection process used the following good practice criteria to ensure a credible and manageable set of indicators: Valid and meaningful an indicator should adequately reflect the phenomenon it is intended to measure and should be relevant to the needs of the user. Statistically sound and robust indicator measurement needs to be methodologically sound and fit for the purpose to which it is being applied. Intelligible and easily interpreted indicators should be sufficiently simple to be interpreted in practice and intuitive in the sense that it is obvious what the indicator is measuring. Relate where appropriate to other indicators a single indicator often tends to show part of a phenomenon and is best interpreted alongside other similar indicators (e.g. together as a theme). Ability to be disaggregated indicators should be able to be broken down into population sub-groups or areas of particular interest, such as ethnic groups or regional areas. Consistency over time indicators should be able to show trends over time, based on regular and repeated data collection. Timeliness there should be minimal time lag between the collection and reporting of data to ensure that indicators are reporting current rather than historical information. Linked to emerging issues indicators should be selected to reflect important issues as closely as possible (i.e. what does it tell us?) Source: (Ministry of Social Development, 2006; Ministry of Social Development, 2010). Based on this criteria, a set of 34 indicators was selected across the eight theme areas of the Waikato Vital Signs programme as listed in Table 1. P a g e 13

24 Table 1: Waikato Vital Signs themes and indicators Vital Sign Children & Youth Child abuse Teen fertility Youth not in Education, Employment Training (NEET rates) Youth suicide Vital Sign Culture & Arts Attending/participating in arts Te Reo Māori speakers Vital Sign Education Educational attainment No qualification Participation in early childhood education Qualification of school leavers Vital Sign Health Cigarette smoking Life expectancy Obesity Psychological distress Vital Sign - Community Caring and volunteer work Community engagement Community pride Crime Motor vehicle casualties Overall life satisfaction Perception of safety Social connectedness Voter turnout Vital Sign - Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Home ownership Household crowding Income inequality Unemployment Vital Sign - Environment Environmental attitudes River water quality Soil quality Threatened environments Waste recycling Vital Sign Recreation Physical activity P a g e 14

25 Data Sources Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region The 2015 population is presented using the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) count. The medium series population projections up to 2033 published by Statistics New Zealand have been used to look at the likely changes in the demographic profile of each of the three districts. It should be noted that population projections are not forecasts or predictions, but estimations of what the situation will be if the assumptions on which they are based prevail. Three alternative series (designated low, medium, and high) are produced by Statistics New Zealand for each area unit using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions: Low series: Assuming low fertility, high mortality and low net migration Medium Series: Assuming medium fertility, medium mortality and medium net migration High Series: Assuming high fertility, low mortality and high net migration It is conventional to see the medium series projections as the most likely scenario and these are used in this report. The following datasets were extracted from the NZ Stat portal of Statistics New Zealand: Estimated resident population (ERP), subnational population by ethnic group, age, and sex, at 30 June 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2013 Subnational population estimates (TA, CAU), by age and sex, at 30 June (2015 boundaries) Subnational ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)-2033 The ethnicity variable includes all people who stated each ethnic group, whether as their only ethnic group or as one of several ethnic groups. The ethnic concept underlying the data is: the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is selfperceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group. For example, people can identify with Māori ethnicity even though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor (Statistics New Zealand, 2013). Where a person reported more than one ethnic group on the census form, they are counted in each applicable group. Therefore, the total number of responses in an ethnicity dataset are always greater than the total number of people (multiple ethnicity counting). P a g e 15

26 The five major ethnic grouping used in this report are Māori, Pacific Peoples (also referred to as Pasifika), European/Other (which includes the New Zealander category), Asian and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African (MELAA). The data on the NZDep2013 Index of Deprivation at the area unit level was sourced from the Department of Public Health, University of Otago, online resources. NZ Deprivation Index is a measure of the relative socio-economic deprivation of an area. The index combines nine variables from the 2013 census which reflect eight dimensions of deprivation (income, communication, employment, qualifications, home ownership, support, living space and transport) and provides a score for each mesh-block. In its ordinal form the index ranges from 1 to 10, where 1 represents areas of lowest socio-economic deprivation and 10 the areas of highest. Thus a score of 10 indicates that the area is in the most deprived 10 per cent of areas in New Zealand. It should be noted that NZDep scores apply to areas and not individual people (Atkinson, Salmond, & Crampton, 2014). Waikato Vital Signs Themes and Indicators Data for the selected indicators has been sourced from the Census and regional or national surveys as well as some administrative datasets as listed below: Census data from Statistics New Zealand Birth and Death Registrations Household Labour Force Survey New Zealand Police Crime Statistics New Zealand Transport Agency Crash Analysis Database Creative New Zealand Survey Environmental Awareness, Attitudes and Actions and New Ecological Combined Survey by the Waikato Regional Council MARCO Regional Waikato Perception Survey by the Waikato Regional Council Waikato Progress Indicators (WPI) database from the Waikato Regional Council New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS) New Zealand Health Survey Appendix Table 7 gives the details of the surveys used as a data source for this report. P a g e 16

27 Where possible, data for each indicator has been disaggregated for the three TAs (Waikato, Hamilton and Matamata-Piako) in the Waikato Vital Signs pilot region. Findings for all indicators have been shown at the regional level - Waikato Vital Signs Region (henceforth referred to as the Waikato VS Region) or the Waikato Region or the Waikato DHB area (see Figure 1for boundaries of these regions/areas). Comparative data for total New Zealand has been included as a benchmark (where possible). The findings for the indicators have also been disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups where appropriate, provided the corresponding data is available. Boundaries Figure 1 shows the boundaries for the three regions/areas used to present the findings in this report for selected indicators. Waikato Vital Signs Region (henceforth referred to as Waikato VS Region ) encompasses the following nine territorial authorities (henceforth referred to as TAs) areas across the Waikato region: Thames-Coromandel District Hauraki District Waikato District Hamilton City Matamata-Piako District Waipa South Waikato Otorohanga Waitomo Waikato Region as defined by Statistics New Zealand not only includes the nine TAs listed above but also parts of Taupo and Rotorua Districts. Waikato District Health Board (DHB) includes the lower part of the Waikato District, the entire remaining eight Waikato Region TAs, and also upper half of the Ruapehu District. It does not include the Taupo or the Rotorua Districts, which are both a part of the Bay of Plenty DHB area. There are 20 DHBs across the country funding and providing primary and secondary health care services. P a g e 17

28 Figure 1: Boundary map for the Waikato Vital Signs (VS) Region, Waikato Region and the Waikato DHB area P a g e 18

29 As per the 2015 estimates based on the census, 8.7 per cent of New Zealand s population is resident in the Waikato VS Region. Table 2 shows the distribution of the resident population of the Waikato VS Region by sex, age group and ethnic group, with comparative data included for the Waikato Region, Waikato DHB area and total New Zealand. The sex, age and ethnic profiles of the Waikato Region and the Waikato DHB area are similar to that of the Waikato VS Region. Therefore, any findings pertaining to either of these two broader regional boundaries are likely to be fairly representative of the corresponding situation in the Waikato VS Region. Table 2: Key demographic characteristics of the Waikato VS Region, 2015 Waikato VS Region Waikato Region Waikato DHB** New Zealand Estimated resident population, , , ,600 4,595,700 Age Group Sex Females 50.9% 50.8% 50.9% 50.9% Males 49.1% 49.2% 49.1% 49.1% 0-14 yrs 21.3% 21.3% 21.2% 19.9% yrs 14.5% 14.2% 14.5% 14.3% yrs 24.1% 24.0% 24.1% 25.7% yrs 25.0% 25.1% 24.9% 25.4% yrs 13.4% 13.6% 13.5% 12.9% 85+ yrs 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Maori 22.0% 22.6% 22.5% 15.6% Ethnic Group* Pacific peoples 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 7.8% European or Other ethnicity (including New Zealander) 78.1% 78.1% 74.6% Asian 7.6% 7.3% 74.6% 12.2% Middle Eastern/Latin American/African 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% * Multiple ethnicity counting means that the people can be counted in more than one ethnic group. Based on 2013 population estimates. ** All Ministry of Health data uses a prioritised ethnicity count. Prioritisation is a classification which assigns the ethnicity of a person who has given multiple responses to just one ethnicity. This process ensures that the total number of responses equals the total population. In doing so, prioritisation conceals diversity within and overlap between ethnic groups by eliminating multiple ethnicities from data. This form of expressing ethnic data is now being discontinued across official statistics. The recognition of multiple ethnicities is important in making comparisons between different ethnic groups as people reporting several ethnicities may have different characteristics from those who do not. (Statistics New Zealand, 2006). P a g e 19

30 Part A: Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region PART A: Socio-Demographic Profile of the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region WAIKATO HAMILTON MATAMATA-PIAKO P a g e 20

31 1.1 Waikato District W a i k a t o D i s t r i c t Figure A-1: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Waikato District in 2015 P a g e 21

32 Waikato District is second largest Territorial Authority (TA) area in the Waikato Region 4 in terms of population. The district is made up of 31 CAUs 5 with a total estimated resident population of 69,500 in 2015 (see Figure A-1). The five most populated areas (as defined by the CAU boundaries) are - Tamahere-Tauwhare, Ngaruawahia, Tuakau, Huntly East and Waikato Western Hills, comprising of over one-third of the district s resident population. Compared to the population estimates based on the 2006 Census, the Waikato District has seen the highest growth in the region (marginally more than Hamilton City), with its resident population increasing by 16.8 per cent over this nine-year period, which is an average annual growth rate of 1.9 per cent. The areas that recorded the greatest population increase over the period were Waerenga (+51.4 per cent), Te Kauwhata (+31.5 per cent) and Tamahere-Tauwhare (+28.6 per cent), accounting for more than one-quarter of the district s growth Age and Sex The estimated resident population of the Waikato District is disaggregated by sex and major age groups in Figure A-2. Males slightly outnumber females with the current sex ratio of 102 males per 100 females. This is opposite to the regional as well as the national picture, with a recorded sex ratio of 97 males per 100 females in both Waikato Region and total New Zealand (see Table A-1 for some key demographic indicators for Waikato District including comparative data for the Waikato Region and total New Zealand). Figure A-2: Estimated resident population of Waikato District disaggregated by sex and age group, Parts of the Taupo and Rotorua Districts are also included within the Waikato Region boundary as defined by Statistics New Zealand. 5 The Waikato District comprises of a total of 33 census area units (CAUs). However, two CAUs have no enumerated population and are therefore excluded. Page 22

33 The district has a much smaller proportion (12.5 per cent) of 65+ year olds among its residents compared to both, the Waikato Region (15.3 per cent) and total New Zealand (14.7 per cent). However, in terms of two key age related demographic indicators, Dependency Ratio and the Labour Market Entry to Exit Ratio 6, Waikato District fares relatively poorly compared to the country as a whole. Currently, the district has approximately 56 dependents per 100 working age population and this ratio is only likely to increase with declining fertility rates and increasing population of people aged 65 years or more. Similarly, the entry to exit ratio across the district is much lower than that recorded nationally with the number of entrants into the labour market only barely replacing the people who are in the retirement zone and will exit the labour market (103 entrants per 100 exits). This ratio is projected to decline. Table A-1: Some key demographic indicators, Waikato District compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, 2015 Waikato District Waikato Region New Zealand Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio (dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio (entrants into labour force per 100 exits) See Glossary for definition. P a g e 23

34 1.1.2 Ethnicity Due to the unavailability of ethnicity based population estimates for 2015, the data presented below are for the 2013 Census based estimated resident population count. A quarter (25.1 per cent) of the residents of Waikato District identify with the Māori ethnic group (see Figure A-3). This is much higher than the national average of 15.6 per cent as well as the proportion seen regionally (22.6 per cent). The district has a much smaller proportion of its resident population identifying with the Pasifika (3.8 per cent compared to 7.8 per cent nationally) and Asian (4.0 per cent compared to 12.2 per cent) ethnic groups. Figure A-4 shows the proportion of the resident population in each area unit of the Waikato District identifying themselves as Māori at the 2013 Census. The six areas Huntly West, Ngaruawahia, Meremere, Taupiri Community, Huntly East and Tuakau have the highest proportion of Māori among its residents and account for over half of the district s Māori population. Figure A-3: Estimated resident population of Waikato District disaggregated by ethnic groups, 2013 The Māori population in the district (as well as in the wider Waikato region and total New Zealand) has a much younger age profile than that of the combined European/Other group (see Figure A-5). Over half (51.5 per cent) of the Māori population is aged under 25 years compared to just over one-third (35.0 per cent) among the European/Other ethnic group. The other two ethnic groups in the district also have younger age profiles, especially the Pasifika population with 58.4 per cent aged less than 25. Page 24

35 Figure A-4: Distribution of the Māori population across the Waikato District, 2013 P a g e 25

36 Figure A-5: Age and sex profile of the two major ethnic groups in the Waikato District, Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) As per the 2013 Census, more than a quarter (27.1 per cent) of the Waikato District population lives in areas categorised as NZDep 9 and 10 (high socio-economic deprivation as defined by the New Zealand Index of Deprivation). This is much higher than the national average of 21.7 per cent and that recorded for the Waikato Region (25.4 per cent). The CAUs within the Waikato District that are categorised as areas with the highest socioeconomic deprivation are: Huntly East, Huntly West, Meremere, Ngaruawahia, Taupiri Community and Tuakau Figure A-6: Distribution of the Waikato district population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in 2013 Page 26

37 1.1.4 Projected demographic changes, & The resident population of the Waikato District increased at an average annual rate of 1.9 per cent over the nine-year period , much higher than for total New Zealand (1.1 per cent) as well as the Waikato Region (1.3 per cent). The rate of growth is projected to slow down with the population likely to increase by approximately 9.8 per cent over the next eight years (average annual increase of 1.2 per cent over the period) and 11.1 per cent over the next ten years (average annual increase of 1.1 per cent over ) reaching 84,800 by 2033 (see Figure A-7 and Figure A-8). This projected rate of population increase in the district is only marginally lower than that for Hamilton City and much higher than that for the total Waikato Region as well as New Zealand. Figure A-7: Estimated and projected (medium series) resident population of Waikato District, However, this projected population growth in the district is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at younger ages likely to either increase only marginally or decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly. The number of people aged 65 years or more is projected to more than double over the next 18 years (8,660 in 2015 to 17,850 in 2033; an increase of per cent). On the other hand, the population of children and young adults (0-24 year olds) in the Waikato District is likely to see very little change with numbers projected to increase from 25,350 in 2015 to 25,470 by 2033 (+0.5 per cent). Not shown in the report, but the projected increase in the older 65+ year population over the period is much more significant in the Waikato District than it is for the total Waikato Region or New Zealand (+70.9 and 74.0 per cent respectively). P a g e 27

38 Figure A-8: Projected change in the resident population of the Waikato District by age group; and The ageing of a population is the result of two different types of ageing: numerical and structural. Numerical ageing of the population is the increase in the actual numbers of aged persons which is shown in Figure A-8. The primary cause of numerical ageing is declining mortality. That is, as the life expectancy increases, the number of older people increases. On the other hand, structural ageing which is shown in Figure A-9 is the increase in the proportion of older persons. Its primary cause is fertility decline, which leads to a relatively smaller proportion of young people. The proportion of 65+ year olds among the district s resident population is projected to increase from 12.5 per cent in 2015 to 21.0 per cent by This projected structural ageing of the population of the Waikato District also adversely affects the other two age dependent demographic indicators. The dependency ratio is expected to rise to 68 dependents per 100 people in the working age group by 2033 while there are likely to be only 84 entrants into the labour market for every 100 people exiting it. Thus, in the long term, the ageing of the population is likely to put a lot of pressure on the labour market and the economy. Page 28

39 Figure A-9: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of Waikato District Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio(dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio(entrants into labour force per 100 exits) The projected increase in the population of the district over the next 18 years is also not distributed equally across the different ethnic groups as seen in Figure A-10 and Figure A-11. Across the Waikato District, the number of people identifying with the Pasifika ethnic group is projected to more than double ( per cent) over the twenty-year period, Significant growth in numbers is also likely to occur among the Asian population of the district (+79.2 per cent). In comparison, the Māori population growth, projected to be around 46.7 per cent, is not as marked. The issue of ethnic over-counting needs to be kept in mind while interpreting ethnicity data from the census (see Figure A-10). As noted earlier, people can choose more than one ethnic group when answering the ethnicity question on the census form, and are subsequently included in each ethnic group they identify with. As a result, even though there is projected to be a significant growth in the number and proportion of people categorised as Māori, Pasifika and Asian in the context of the Waikato District population, the proportion of European/Other ethnic groups is unlikely to decline. This is basically a reflection of the growing number of people in the district, as well as elsewhere in New Zealand, who identify with more than one ethnic group. P a g e 29

40 Figure A-10: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Waikato District Figure A-11: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Waikato District, Page 30

41 1.2 Hamilton City H a m i l t o n C i t y Figure A-12: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Hamilton City in 2015 P a g e 31

42 Hamilton city is the largest TA in the Waikato Region. Made up of 46 CAUs the city has an estimated population of 156,800 (see Figure A-12). The most populated CAUs are Huntington, Bryant, University, Glenview, Horsham Downs, Melville, Nawton, Swarbrick and Naylor, with onethird of the city s population resident in one of these nine areas. The population of Hamilton has grown by 16.3 per cent over the nine years since the last census in 2006, which, similar to the Waikato District, is an average annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent. The areas that recorded the greatest population increase over the period were Sylvester ( per cent), Huntington (116.8 per cent), Horsham Downs (103.0 per cent), Peacocke (57.4 per cent) and Te Rapa (56.5 per cent), accounting for almost 60.0 per cent of the city s growth Age and Sex The estimated resident population of Hamilton City is disaggregated by sex and major age groups in Figure A-13. Females outnumber males with the current sex ratio of 94 males per 100 females. This is lower than the regional as well as the national sex ratio of 97 males per 100 females in both Waikato Region and total New Zealand (see Table A- 2 for some key demographic indicators for Hamilton City including comparative data for Waikato Region and total New Zealand). Figure A-13: Estimated resident population of Hamilton City disaggregated by sex and age group, 2015 Page 32

43 Hamilton City has a much younger age profile with only 11.7 per cent of its resident population aged 65 years or over, compared to both, the Waikato Region (15.3 per cent) and total New Zealand (14.7 per cent). The two key age related demographic indicators, Dependency Ratio and the Labour Market Entry to Exit Ratio reaffirm the younger age profile of the city. With only 49 dependents per 100 people at working age, marginally lower than the national Dependency Ratio, the city has the youngest age profile within the Waikato Region. The labour market entry to exit ratio also tells a similar story, with 193 entrants to every 100 exits in Hamilton. One of the main reasons for the comparatively higher proportion of younger people in Hamilton is the student population enrolled at the tertiary institutions located in the city. However, similar to elsewhere in New Zealand, with declining fertility rates and increasing population of people aged 65 years or more, Hamilton city is also ageing; though at a slower rate than other districts across the Waikato Region. Table A- 2: Some key demographic indicators, Hamilton City compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, 2015 Hamilton City Waikato Region New Zealand Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio (dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio (entrants into labour force per 100 exits) Ethnicity Due to the unavailability of ethnicity based population estimates for 2015, the data presented below are for the 2013 Census based estimated resident population count. Just over one in five residents (22.0 per cent) of Hamilton City identify with the Māori ethnic group (see Figure A-14 ). This is similar to the proportion seen across the Waikato Region (22.6 per cent) but much higher than the national average of 15.6 per cent. Compared to the other two districts and the Waikato Region as a whole, Hamilton has a much higher proportion (14.2 per cent) of its resident population identifying themselves as Asians. Although the difference is not as significant, the city also has a higher proportion of Pasifika people (5.3 per cent) among its residents. P a g e 33

44 Figure A-14: Estimated resident population of Hamilton City disaggregated by ethnic groups, 2013 Figure A-15 shows the proportion of the resident population in each census area unit of Hamilton City identifying themselves as Māori at the 2013 Census. The nine areas of Temple View, Crawshaw, Insoll, Swarbrick, Clarkin, Enderley, Grandview, Bader and Fairview Downs have the highest proportion of Māori among its residents and account for over one-third of the city s Māori population. Page 34

45 Figure A-15: Distribution of the Māori population across Hamilton City, 2013 P a g e 35

46 The age profiles of the Māori and the Pasifika population in Hamilton (as well as in the wider Waikato region and total New Zealand) are much younger, compared to not only the combined European/Other group but also the Asian ethnic group (see Figure A-16). Over half (55.6 per cent) of the Māori population and three-fifths of the Pasifika population (60.4 per cent) is aged under 25 years compared to 37.4 per cent among European/Other and 40.1 per cent among Asians. The significantly higher proportion of Asians in the age group is an artefact of the large number of Asian students enrolled in tertiary education across the city. Figure A-16: Age and sex profile of the four major ethnic groups in Hamilton City, 2013 Page 36

47 1.2.3 Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) As per the 2013 Census, 27.7 per cent of the Hamilton City population lives in areas categorised as NZDep 9 and 10 (high socio-economic deprivation as defined by the New Zealand Index of Deprivation). This is much higher than the national average of 21.7 per cent and also higher than that recorded for the wider Waikato Region (25.4 per cent). The census area units within the city that are categorised as areas with the highest socioeconomic deprivation are: Bader, Clarkin, Crawshaw, Enderley, Frankton Junction, Grandview, Hamilton Central, Hamilton East, Insoll, Melville, Porritt and Swarbrick Figure A-17: Distribution of the Hamilton City population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in Projected demographic changes, & The resident population of Hamilton City increased at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent over the nine year period , much higher than that for total New Zealand (1.1 per cent) as well as the Waikato Region (1.3 per cent). The rate of growth is projected to slow down slightly with the population likely to increase by approximately 11.0 per cent over the next eight years (average annual increase of 1.4 per cent over the period) and 11.5 per cent over the ten years after that (average annual increase of 1.2 per cent over ), reaching 194,200 by 2033 (see Figure A-18 and Figure A-19). This projected rate of population increase across the city is higher than that expected in the Waikato Region as well as total New Zealand. Page 37

48 Figure A-18: Estimated and projected (medium series) resident population of Hamilton City, The projected population growth in the city is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at younger ages likely to either increase only marginally or decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly (see Figure A-19). Although not as significantly as the Waikato District, Hamilton is also ageing with the number of people aged 65 years or more projected to increase by 80.0 per cent over the next 18 years (18,300 in 2015 to 32,940 in 2033). On the other hand, the population of children and young adults (0-24 year olds) in the city is likely to see very little change with numbers projected to increase by only 12.0 per cent (from 61,100 in 2015 to 68,440 by 2033). The projected increase in the older 65+ year population in Hamilton over the period is slightly more than that expected in the Waikato Region or total New Zealand (+70.9 and 74.0 per cent respectively). Figure A-19: Projected change in the resident population of Hamilton City by age group; and Page 38

49 The ageing of a population is the result of two different types of ageing: numerical and structural. Numerical ageing is the increase in the actual numbers of aged persons which is shown in Figure A-19 above. The primary cause of numerical ageing is declining mortality. That is, as the life expectancy increases, the number of older people increases. On the other hand, structural ageing, which is shown in Figure A-20, is the increase in the proportion of older persons. Its primary cause is fertility decline, which leads to a relatively smaller proportion of young people. Hamilton City, like elsewhere in New Zealand, is ageing both numerically as well as structurally. The proportion of 65+ year olds among the city s resident population is projected to increase from 11.7 per cent in 2015 to 17.0 per cent by This projected structural ageing of the population also adversely affects the other two age dependent demographic indicators. The dependency ratio is expected to rise from the current 49 dependents per 100 people in the working age group to 56 per 100 by The labour force entry to exit ratio is less adversely affected in comparison to other districts across the Waikato Region, and this is mainly due to the city s significant youth population enrolled in tertiary studies. Figure A-20: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of Hamilton City Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Age Group (in years) Males Percentage Females Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio(dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio(entrants into labour force per 100 exits) P a g e 39

50 The projected increase in the population of the city over the next 18 years is also not distributed evenly across the different ethnic groups as seen in Figure A- 21 and Figure A-22. The population of Pacific peoples and Asians across Hamilton is likely to double over the next twenty years ( per cent and per cent respectively). By 2033, approximately two in every ten residents of the city will be Asian and one in ten will be Pasifika. In comparison, the Māori population growth, projected to be around 57.1 per cent, is not as marked. The proportion of the population identifying with the residual European/Other group is projected to decline from 70.0 per cent in 2013 to 60.5 per cent in Figure A- 21: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Hamilton City Figure A-22: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Hamilton City, Page 40

51 1.3 Matamata-Piako District M a t a m a t a - P i a k o D i s t r i c t Figure A-23: Estimated resident population of each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Matamata- Piako District in 2015 P a g e 41

52 Matamata-Piako District is made up of 13 CAUs and has an estimated population of 33,600 (see Figure A-23). The most populated CAUs are Morrinsville East, Matamata South, Waihou- Walton and Te Aroha, with over half of the district s population resident in one of these four areas. The population of this district has grown at a significantly slower rate compared to Hamilton City and the Waikato District. Over the last nine years ( ), the resident population of Matamata-Piako has increased by 7.7 per cent; an average annual growth rate of 0.9 per cent. Growth in four areas accounted for almost all of Matamata-Piako s population increase Matamata South (+31.0 per cent), Morrinsville East (+24.1 per cent), Matamata North (+17.6 per cent and Te Aroha (+14.3 per cent). The population of the other CAUs across the district saw very little or no growth over the last nine years, while the population of one of the bigger areas, Waihou-Walton, declined Age and Sex The estimated resident population of Matamata-Piako District is disaggregated by sex and major age groups in Figure A-24. Females marginally outnumber males with the current sex ratio of 98 males per 100 females. This is similar to the regional national sex ratio of 97 males per 100 females (see Table A-3) for some key demographic indicators for Hamilton City including comparative data for the Waikato Region and total New Zealand). Figure A-24: Estimated resident population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by sex and age group, 2015 Page 42

53 Matamata-Piako has the oldest age profile among the three TAs with 18.4 per cent of its resident population aged 65 years or over, which is a higher proportion compared to both, the Waikato Region (15.3 per cent) as well as total New Zealand (14.7 per cent). The two key age related demographic indicators, Dependency Ratio and the Labour Market Entry to Exit Ratio further highlight the older age profile of the district with 64 dependents per 100 people at working age, (higher than the national average of 53 per 100); and only 105 entrants into the labour force for every 100 exiting (much lower than the national average of 127 per 100). Table A-3: Some key demographic indicators, Matamata-Piako District compared to the Waikato Region and New Zealand, 2015 Matamata-Piako District Waikato Region New Zealand Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio (dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio (entrants into labour force per 100 exits) Ethnicity Due to the unavailability of ethnicity based population estimates for 2015, the data presented below are for the 2013 Census based estimated resident population count. Compared to the other two districts and the Waikato Region as a whole, Matamata-Piako has a smaller proportion of Māori and Pasifika ethnic groups among its residents (see Figure A-25). Almost nine of every ten residents belong to the European/Other ethnic group. Figure A-25: Estimated resident population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by ethnic groups, 2013 Page 43

54 Māori are the second largest ethnic group in the district. Figure A-26 shows the proportion of the resident population in each census area unit of Matamata-Piako District identifying themselves as Māori at the 2013 Census. The two areas Waharoa and Morrinsville West have the highest proportion of Māori among its residents. Figure A-26: Distribution of the Māori population across the Matamata-Piako District, 2013 P a g e 44

55 The age profile of the Māori population in Matamata-Piako (as well as in the wider Waikato region and total New Zealand) is much younger compared to the combined European/Other group (see Figure A-27). Almost three-fifths (55.9 per cent) of the Māori population in the district is aged under 25 years compared to 32.9 per cent among European/Other. Although not shown here due to small numbers, the Pasifika population of the district is also very youthful with 60.9 per cent aged 24 years or less. Figure A-27: Age and sex profile of the two major ethnic groups in Matamata-Piako District, Socio-economic index of deprivation (NZDep2013) As per the 2013 Census, only 10.6 per cent the Matamata-Piako District population lives in areas categorised as NZDep 9 and 10 (high socio-economic deprivation as defined by the New Zealand Index of Deprivation), which is a much smaller proportion then for the other two districts of Hamilton and Waikato, as well as the national average of 21.7 per cent and that recorded for the wider Waikato Region (25.4 per cent). The area units within the district that are categorised as areas with the highest socio-economic deprivation are: Morrinsville West, Waharoa and Waitoa. There are no areas categorised as NZDep 1 and 2 in the Matamata-Piako District. Figure A-28: Distribution of the Matamata-Piako District population categorised by the NZ Index of Deprivation (NZDep2013) of the CAU of residence in 2013 Page 45

56 1.3.4 Projected demographic changes, & The resident population of Matamata-Piako District increased at an average annual rate of 0.9 per cent over the nine-year period , much slower than the growth rate of Waikato District and Hamilton City. The rate of growth is projected to further decline with the population of the district likely to increase by approximately 3.0 per cent over the next eight years (average annual increase of only 0.4 per cent over the period) and 1.2 per cent over the ten years after that (average annual increase of 0.1 per cent over ), reaching 35,000 by 2033 (see Figure A-29 and Figure A-30). This projected rate of population increase across the district is lower than that expected in the Waikato Region as well as total New Zealand. Figure A-29: Estimated and projected resident population of the Matamata-Piako District, As with the other two TAs, the projected population growth in Matamata-Piako is not expected to be uniformly distributed across different age groups with the numbers at all younger ages likely to decline, while those in the older 65+ year age groups expected to increase significantly (see Figure A-30). The population of residents aged 65 years or more is likely to increase by around 58.0 per cent over the next 18 years (6,170 in 2015 to 9,750 in 2033). On the other hand, the population of children and young adults (0-24 year olds) across the district is likely to decline by around 9.0 per cent (from 11,320 in 2015 to 10,310 by 2033). P a g e 46

57 Figure A-30: Projected change in the resident population of the Matamata-Piako District by age group; and The ageing of a population is the result of two different types of ageing: numerical and structural. Numerical ageing is the increase in the actual numbers of aged persons which is shown in Figure A-30 above. The primary cause of numerical ageing is declining mortality. That is, as the life expectancy increases, the number of older people increases. On the other hand, structural ageing which is shown in Figure A-31 is the increase in the proportion of older persons. Its primary cause is fertility decline, which leads to a relatively smaller proportion of young people. Matamata-Piako, like elsewhere in New Zealand, is ageing both numerically as well as structurally. The proportion of 65+ year olds among the district s resident population is projected to increase from per cent in 2015 to 27.9 per cent by So, by 2033, one in every four residents of this district will be aged 65 years or more. This projected structural ageing of the population also adversely affects the two age dependent demographic indicators. The dependency ratio is expected to rise from the current 64 dependents per 100 people in the working age group to 89 per 100 by The labour force entry to exit ratio is projected to drop below replacement level by 2033 with only 88 entrants for every 100 exits from the labour force. Page 47

58 Figure A-31: Current and projected age and sex profile of the resident population of the Matamata- Piako District Age Group (in years) Percentage Males Females Age Group (in years) Percentage Males Females Age Group (in years) Percentage Males Females Proportion of 65+ year olds in the resident population (%) Dependency Ratio(dependents per 100 working age population) Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio(entrants into labour force per 100 exits) The increase in the population of the district over the next 18 years is also not distributed evenly across the different ethnic groups as seen in Figure A-32 and Figure A-33. The population of Pacific peoples and Asians in the district is likely to increase significantly over the next twenty years. In comparison, the Māori population growth, projected to be around 45.5 per cent, is not as marked. The proportion of the population identifying with the residual European/Other group is projected to decline from 87.2 per cent in 2013 to 83.1 per cent by Figure A-32: Current and projected ethnic profile of the resident population of Matamata-Piako District Page 48

59 Figure A-33: Projected percentage change in the population of each ethnic group, Matamata-Piako District, Page 49

60 1.4 Selected socio-demographic measures from the census This section presents some selected socio-demographic measures for the three districts in the Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region along with comparative data for the total Waikato Vital Signs Region and New Zealand. The 2006 and 2013 Census data sourced from the NZ.Stat portal of Statistics New Zealand was used to calculate these measures. The usually resident population who did not respond to the census or did not provide a valid response to a particular census question(s) from which the variable(s) is derived, has been excluded for the purpose of calculating the measures presented in the socio-demographic snapshot of each of the three TAs and the combined Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region. Please refer to the glossary for definitions or detailed information of the variable presented. P a g e 50

61 Figure A-34: Socio-demographic snapshot 1 Measure Resident population Waikato District Hamilton City Matamata- Piako District Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region Waikato Vital Signs Total Region New Zealand 2015 (estimated) 69, ,800 33, , ,950 4,595, (projected, medium series) 76, ,100 34, , ,070 4,948, (projected, medium series) 84, ,200 35, , ,750 5,338,300 Sex Ratio, 2015 (males per 100 females) Proportion Māori, % 22.0% 15.6% 16.1% 22.6% 15.6% Proportion living in high deprivation areas (NZDep 9 & 10), 2013 Projected change in population (%) 27.1% 27.7% 10.6% 25.2% 25.6% 21.7% % +11.0% +3.0% +9.7% +6.8% +7.7% % +11.5% +1.2% +10.2% +6.9% +7.9% % +23.9% +4.2% +20.8% +14.2% +16.2% Population aged 65+ years (%) 2015 (estimated) 12.5% 11.7% 18.4% 12.7% 15.1% 14.7% 2023 (projected, medium series) 16.0% 14.0% 22.2% 15.5% 18.5% 17.9% 2033 (projected, medium series) 21.0% 17.0% 27.9% 19.3% 22.8% 22.0% Population aged under 25 years (%) 2015 (estimated) 36.5% 39.0% 33.7% 37.6% 35.8% 34.2% 2023 (projected, medium series) 32.7% 36.8% 30.9% 35.0% 33.0% 31.4% 2033 (projected, medium series) 30.0% 35.2% 29.5% 33.2% 31.3% 29.7% Population aged years (%) 2015 (estimated) 51.1% 49.4% 48.1% 49.7% 49.1% 51.2% 2023 (projected, medium series) 51.3% 49.2% 46.7% 49.5% 48.5% 50.7% 2033 (projected, medium series) 48.9% 47.8% 42.6% 47.5% 46.0% 48.3% P a g e 51

62 Figure A-35: Socio-demographic snapshot 2 Measure Population born overseas 14.4% 24.0% 13.1% 20.0% 18.1% 25.2% Birthplace of population born overseas UK, Ireland, Rest of Europe 51.6% 25.0% 50.1% 32.3% 39.1% 33.6% Pacific Islands 7.6% 12.8% 4.4% 11.1% 10.1% 15.1% ~ Asia 14.0% 38.2% 19.9% 32.0% 26.1% 31.6% Australia 11.5% ~ 6.4% 10.3% ~ 7.7% 8.7% 6.3% ~ North America 4.1% ~ 2.6% ~ 2.7% ~ 2.9% ~ 3.1% ~ 3.1% ~ Middle East, Africa, Other 11.2% 14.9% ~ 12.7% 14.0% 12.9% 10.3% ~ % of recent migrants (arrivals < 5 yrs ago) among overseas born residents 17.8% 27.9% 19.9% 25.2% 23.1% 22.9% % speaking more than one language 13.2% ~ 20.6% 9.6% ~ 17.1% ~ 14.7% ~ 18.9% ~ Te Reo Māori speakers Total population 7.3% 5.7% ~ 3.6% ~ 5.9% ~ 5.5% ~ 3.8% ~ Māori population 28.1% 24.7% 21.7% 25.4% 23.7% 21.7% Religious affiliation Waikato District 2013 Hamilton City 2013 Matamata- Piako District 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Total Region 2013 New Zealand 2013 At least one religious affiliation 48.9% 55.6% 52.7% 53.4% 52.6% 55.0% No Religion 47.4% 41.6% 43.8% 43.5% 44.0% 41.9% Object to Answering 5.2% 4.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% Increase since 2006 Decline since 2006 ~ No significant change since 2006 (Less than one percentage point) P a g e 52

63 Figure A-36: Socio-demographic snapshot 3 Measure Number of families in private occupied dwellings Family type Couple without children 39.3% 37.2% ~ 45.9% 39.0% ~ 41.8% 40.9% Couple with child(ren) 43.2% 40.7% ~ 39.0% 41.2% ~ 39.4% 41.3% ~ Single parent families 17.5% ~ 22.0% ~ 15.1% ~ 19.8% ~ 18.8% ~ 17.8% ~ Number of private occupied dwellings/households Household composition One-family household 74.4% ~ 66.7% ~ 69.8% 69.1% ~ 68.9% 68.3% ~ Two-family household 3.0% ~ 3.3% ~ 1.7% ~ 3.0% ~ 2.6% ~ 3.1% ~ Three or more family household 0.2% ~ 0.2% ~ 0.1% ~ 0.2% ~ 0.2% ~ 0.2% ~ Other multi-person household 2.9% ~ 7.0% ~ 3.1% ~ 5.4% ~ 4.5% ~ 4.8% ~ One-person household 19.5% ~ 22.7% ~ 25.3% 22.3% ~ 23.9% 23.5% ~ Tenure holder Dwelling owned/partly owned/held in family trust Waikato District ,223 22,032 Hamilton City % ~ 57.2% 64.2% 60.8% 62.8% 64.8% Dwelling not owned or held in family trust 32.8% ~ 42.8% 35.8% 39.2% 37.2% 35.2% Households with access to telecommunications 2.1% ~ 1.7% ~ 1.8% ~ 1.8% ~ 2.0% ~ 1.6% ~ Households with no motor vehicle(s) 4.6% ~ 8.7% ~ 5.2% ~ 7.1% ~ 7.0% ~ 7.9% ~ Increase since 2006 Decline since 2006 ~ No significant change since ,309 8,856 62,388 98,823 1,136,397 50,391 12,246 84, ,107 1,549,890 (Less than one percentage point) Matamata- Piako District 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Total Region 2013 New Zealand 2013 P a g e 53

64 Figure A-37: Socio-demographic snapshot 4 Measure Waikato District 2013 Hamilton City 2013 Matamata- Piako District 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Pilot Region 2013 Waikato Vital Signs Total Region 2013 New Zealand 2013 Highest qualifications No qualifications 25.7% 19.1% 31.5% 22.4% 24.7% 20.9% Level 1-5 Certificate/Diploma 58.9% ~ 58.3% ~ 59.1% 58.6% ~ 58.9% ~ 59.0% ~ Bachelor's degree or higher 15.4% 22.6% 9.4% 19.0% 16.3% 20.0% Work and Labour force status Employed (full or part time) 65.3% 60.9% 63.6% 62.4% 61.6% 62.3% Unemployed by actively seeking work 4.8% 6.4% 3.3% ~ 5.6% 5.1% 4.8% Not in the labour force 29.9% 32.7% 33.1% 32.0% 33.3% 32.9% Status in employment Paid employee 71.4% 86.3% 71.2% 80.2% ~ 76.9% 79.4% Self employed with or without employees 24.9% 12.8% 25.2% 17.8% ~ 20.5% 18.7% ~ Unpaid family worker 3.8% ~ 0.9% ~ 3.5% ~ 2.1% ~ 2.5% ~ 1.9% ~ Occupation Managers 24.2% ~ 15.1% ~ 27.0% 19.2% ~ 20.8% ~ 18.7% ~ Professionals 18.6% 25.6% 11.7% 21.8% 19.5% 22.5% Technicians and Trades Workers 12.6% 12.9% 11.8% ~ 12.7% ~ 12.4% 12.0% ~ Community and Personal Service Workers 7.1% ~ 9.2% 6.6% ~ 8.3% ~ 8.5% ~ 9.0% ~ Clerical and Administrative Workers 11.3% ~ 12.6% 10.0% ~ 11.9% ~ 11.4% ~ 12.0% ~ Sales Workers 7.0% ~ 10.6% ~ 7.3% ~ 9.2% ~ 8.9% ~ 9.3% ~ Machinery Operators and Drivers 6.6% 5.0% ~ 7.2% ~ 5.7% ~ 5.9% ~ 5.4% ~ Labourers 12.5% ~ 9.0% ~ 18.3% ~ 11.2% ~ 12.7% ~ 11.1% ~ Increase since 2006 Decline since 2006 ~ No significant change since 2006 (Less than one percentage point) P a g e 54

65 Part B: Waikato Vital Signs Theme Areas and Selected Indicators PART B: Waikato Vital Signs Theme Areas and Selected Indicators P a g e 55

66 2.1 Vital Sign: Children & Youth Vital Sign: Children & Youth Positive social and economic transitions by youth and young adults, including completion of school and beginning of employment careers, and the establishment of relationships and households, are critical for lifetime stocks of human, social, and economic capital. At the same time, these are ages of higher health and social risk (Cooke & Guimond, 2008). To be able to address some of the current regional and national concerns, such as supporting an ageing population and economic insecurity, we need to ensure that Waikato s young people are healthy, educated and fully engaged in society. This section focuses on some of issues that beset New Zealand and the Waikato region s young people. Four indicators have been selected; youth suicide, as a measurement of youth mental health; teen fertility, which affect educational achievement and can lead to low income levels; youth not in education, employment or training which indicates some of the most vulnerable youth, and child abuse; those children who have been reported as being neglected or ill-treated. P a g e 56

67 2.1.1 Child abuse Definition: Number (annual per 10,000) of children and young people aged 0-16 years for whom there was a substantiated finding of abuse or neglect made after an investigation or assessment completed by Child, Youth and Family (CYF). Relevance: Abuse is harmful to children. Children may experience a range of emotional, psychological and physical problems and trauma as a result of being abused or neglected. All forms of abuse are likely to result in emotional problems for the child, in particular, a lack of self-esteem and distrust of adults. The longer the abuse goes on, the more serious are the effects. Abused and neglected children are more likely than other children to be selfdestructive or aggressive, to abuse drugs and/or alcohol, or become young offenders or "street kids". In some situations, abuse and neglect may result in permanent physical damage. Abused children come from all levels of society, although most abused children who are reported to authorities are from families where there is high mobility, a lack of education, loneliness, poverty, unemployment, inadequate housing or social isolation. Findings: As per the Children, Young Persons, and their Families Act 1989, child abuse means the harming (whether physically, emotionally, or sexually), ill-treatment, abuse, neglect, or deprivation of any child or young person. The number of children (per 10,000) reported for one or more cases of abuse in the Waikato VS Region remained relatively unchanged over the period and were below the national average. After 2013, the rate has declined but not as significantly as that for total New Zealand, with the number of 0-16 year olds reported per 10,000 higher in the region in 2015 than the national average. Figure B-1: Number (annual per 10,000) of children and young people aged 0-16 years reported (and substantiated) for abuse or neglect; Page 57

68 Other related findings Among the cases reported, half are for emotional abuse. Emotional abuse occurs when a child s emotional, psychological or social well-being and sense of worth is continually battered. It can include a pattern of criticising, rejecting, degrading, ignoring, isolating, corrupting, exploiting and terrorising a child. It may result from exposure to family violence or involvement in illegal or antisocial activities. The effects of this form of abuse are not always immediate or visible. The longlasting effects of emotional abuse may only become evident as a child becomes older and begins to show difficult or disturbing behaviours or symptoms. Emotional abuse is almost always present when other forms of abuse occur. Neglect is the second most common cause. Neglect is a pattern of behaviour which occurs over a period of time and results in impaired functioning or development of a child. It can be physical, medical, abandonment, neglectful supervision or refusal to assume parental responsibility. One in five cases are for physical abuse. Physical abuse can be caused from punching, beating, kicking, shaking, biting, burning or throwing the child. Physical abuse may also result from excessive or inappropriate discipline or violence within the family, and is considered abuse regardless of whether or not it was intended to hurt the child. Physical abuse may be the result of a single episode or of a series of episodes. Injuries to a child may vary in severity and range from minor bruising, burns, welts or bite marks, major fractures of the long bones or skull, to its most extreme form, the death of a child. Sexual abuse is the least common. Sexual abuse includes acts or behaviours where an adult, older or more powerful person uses a child for a sexual purpose. While it may involve a stranger, most sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone the child knows and trusts. Figure B-2: Type of child abuse (emotional, physical, sexual or neglect) as a proportion of all reported and substantiated cases; Page 58

69 New Zealand has the fifth worst child abuse record out of 31 OECD countries. On average one child is killed every five weeks. Most of these children are under five and the largest group is less than a year old. Studies have found abused and neglected children to be at least 25 percent more likely to experience problems such as delinquency, teen pregnancy, low academic achievement, drug use and mental health problems (Kelley, Thornberry, & Smith, 1997). A child is admitted to a New Zealand hospital every second day with injuries arising from either assault, neglect or maltreatment, research says. Nearly half of them are aged under five. The figures, which are likely under reported, are contained in a 2012 report prepared for the Ministry of Health by the NZ Child and Youth Epidemiology Service. ( Zealands-shocking-child-abuse-statistics). Technical information: Data source(s): Child, Youth and Family (CYF) - Ministry of Social Development Geography: Waikato VS Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: The data are for financial year ending June. The child abuse rates reported here are an under-estimate of the actual prevalence because of two factors: 1. Not all cases of child abuse are reported. Under-reporting means the actual rates of child abuse are higher than those reported. 2. The child abuse statistics do not include any person who is or has been married or in a civil union. However, the estimated population of 0-16 year olds used to calculate the child abuse rate (per 100,000) includes everybody in this age group irrespective of their marital or partnership status. Consequently, the calculated rates are lower than expected for the recorded cases of abuse. P a g e 59

70 2.1.2 Teen fertility Definition: Number of live births per 1,000 mean estimated female population aged under 20 years. Relevance: About three-quarters of teen births are unintended. Children born to teen mothers are more likely to be born prematurely, to be born at a low birth weight, and to die as infants, compared with children born to mothers in their twenties and early thirties. They generally have poorer academic and behavioural outcomes than do children born to older mothers, and are more likely themselves to initiate sex at an early age and to have a teen birth themselves. Compared with older mothers, teen mothers are less likely to finish high school or go on to college, and more likely to be dependent on government benefits, especially in the first years after giving birth. Teen mothers often face the primary responsibility of parenthood alone (Child Trends Data Bank, 2015). Findings: Cross-country comparisons indicate that except for the United States, New Zealand has a higher rate of teenage births than other comparable countries. Age specific fertility rates (AFFR) for teenagers started to decline significantly after Over the two decade period , the ASFR for all women aged less than 20 years declined by 45.3 per cent, with the sharpest declines in the three oldest teenage years of 17, 18 and 19. After 1990, the ASFR for teenagers continued to decline, except for the years 2007 and 2008, when the rates were unusually high (the period referred to as a baby blip and affecting women of all ages) (Sceats & Pawar, 2014). The teenage fertility rate across the Waikato Region remains higher than that for total New Zealand over the entire period. The metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury, and also the rest of the South Island, have lower proportions of teenage births among births to all women, while Northland and Gisborne the highest. P a g e 60

71 Figure B-3: Number of live births per 1,000 women aged under 20 years; Other related findings The Māori teenage birth rate in 2015 was 47.4 births per 1,000 women aged years, down from 69.4 births in Data sourced from Statistics New Zealand, of teenage birth rates for Māori and for the total population (see Figure B-4), show that while teenage birth rates have always been higher for Māori, they are declining at a similar rate to the total population. Figure B-4: Number of live births per 1,000 Māori teens aged years compared to all women in this age group; Technical information: Data source(s): Birth registration data, Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: To minimise annual fluctuations the age specific fertility rates are calculated based on a three-year average (e.g based on the annual average number of live births during the three-year period ). Estimated resident population at 30 June. Rates for women under 20 years are calculated using the population aged years. Page 61

72 2.1.3 Youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) Definition: Proportion of the youth (15-24 years) who are not in employment, education or training (NEET). Relevance: Participation in employment, education or training is important for youth to become established in the labour market and achieve self-sufficiency. A NEET is a young person who is not in education employment or training. NEET rate is a proxy measure for youth inactivity and youth categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both, work and education. The NEET rate indicator has the potential to highlight a broad array of vulnerabilities among youth, touching on issues of unemployment, early school leaving and labour market discouragement. Young people who are NEET are at risk of becoming socially excluded, poor and without the skills to improve their economic situation. Findings: New Zealand's NEET rate is close to the OECD average. Both, the unemployment and the NEET rates have been declining since 2010 across the country. That's true for both and year olds. The NEET rates in the Waikato Region are slightly higher than that seen nationally. Figure B-5: Proportion of the youth (15-24 years) who are not in employment, education or training (NEET); Other related findings Disaggregation by broad ethnic groups shows that NEET rates are highest among Māori and Pacific youth (see Figure B-6). Page 62

73 Figure B-6: NEET rates disaggregated by broad ethnic groups; There are three groups of NEET: 1) unemployed and actively seeking work, but not in education; 2) not in education or seeking work, but caregiving; and 3) not in education, not seeking work and not caregiving. These groups are quite different and therefore require different policy responses. New Zealand's unemployment rate is low by international standards (see sub-section 2.4.5). Generally, countries with high unemployment rates also have high NEET rates. That's because NEET is what we used to call the "hidden unemployed" or "discouraged workers". It occurs because unemployed people perceive there to be so few jobs for them that they become discouraged from actively seeking work (they are therefore not counted in the unemployment rate). They are not in training either, for example, because they can't afford to be a student or feel that they don't have the ability to successfully complete training. It is important to note that these statistics are "snapshots" at a point in time and give no information about how "entrenched" the situation is for any given individual. A study by Treasury in 2015 showed that being a NEET for a long time does have negative impacts later on in life. Technical information: Data source(s): Household Labour Force Survey, Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: It is important to note that NEET numbers come from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). This is a sample survey, which - like all surveys - is subject to sampling errors. The smaller the group of interest (and NEET is a relatively small group), the greater the potential error. So while the broad trends in the statistics give meaningful information, small changes in numbers must be interpreted with caution. Page 63

74 2.1.4 Youth suicide Definition: Number of youths (15-24 years) committing suicide per 100,000 population. Relevance: Suicide is a serious health and social issue. Suicide rates are a sign of the mental health and social well-being of the population. Suicide and suicidal behaviours continue to be a major public health issue. Every year more than 500 New Zealanders take their lives and there are over 2,500 admissions to hospital for serious self-harm (Ministry of Health, 2015). Youth suicide is a big issue in New Zealand as we have one of the highest rates of youth suicide in the world. Findings: Over the period, youth (15 24 years) had the highest suicide rate, 18.0 per 100,000, of all life-stage groups. In 2012, approximately one in three deaths in males and females aged years were due to suicide (Ministry of Health, 2015). Nationally, youth suicide rates declined from the peak of 28.7 deaths per 100,000 in 1995, reaching a low of 15.2 in 2010 and then once again rising to 23.4 per 100,000 in 2012 (see Figure B-7). Male suicide rates remain significantly higher than those for women. Figure B-7: Number of youths (15-24 years) committing suicide per 100,000 population disaggregated by sex; New Zealand, Page 64

75 New Zealand has the highest youth rates for both, males and females, among the OECD countries (see Appendix Figure 5). Looking at aggregated suicide data for the period, youth suicide rates in the Waikato DHB area are similar to that for total New Zealand; marginally lower for males and marginally higher for females (see Figure B-8). Figure B-8: Youth suicide rate for males and females; Waikato DHB area and New Zealand, aggregated Other related findings Figure B-9 shows the youth suicide rate among males and females for Māori and non-māori in the Waikato DHB area and New Zealand for the aggregated for the period. Nationally, it is reported by the Ministry of Health that overall, the Māori suicide rate is 1.6 times the rate for non- Māori (15.8 deaths per 100,000 Māori population compared to 9.7 deaths per 100,000 non-māori population). Māori make up 19.8 per cent of the country's youth population but are significantly over-represented among youth committing suicide with 40.7 per cent of all deaths in the age group. The rates for Māori males and females are 1.4 and 2.2 times the rates for non-māori. A similar pattern is seen for the youth population with significantly higher rates of suicide among Māori youth, especially males. Page 65

76 Figure B-9: Youth suicide rate for males and females disaggregated for Māori and non-māori; Waikato DHB area and New Zealand, aggregated Technical information: Data source(s): Ministry of Health (Ministry of Health, 2015) Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Page 66

77 2.2 Vital Sign: Community Vital Sign: C o m m u n i t y The way in which people interact and perceive their community can affect their health, wellbeing and quality of life. For many people social connectedness, the relationships they have with their friends, family, at work and in the community, help people to feel they belong and provide enjoyment and support. Caring and volunteering within the community contributes to the social wellbeing of others when time and skills are volunteered to a range of organisations. Feeling safe in the community is important with threats ranging from accidental injury to deliberate violence. Physical injury reduces a victim s quality of life, often restricting their ability to participate in activities they enjoy. Motor vehicle casualties also indicate premature death or injury and can have a devastating effect on victims, their families and their communities. Road crashes are a risk that can potentially be avoided. A good community indicator is overall satisfaction with life as people have a number of ways of quantifying this, including good health, stable employment and positive relationships. Within the community participation in civil and political decision-making by voting helps to ensure democratic representation both locally and nationally and high voter turnout shows that people see New Zealand s political institutions as meaningful to their lives (Ministry of Social Development, 2010). This section has nine indicators, including caring and volunteer work, community engagement, community pride, crime, overall life satisfaction, perception of safety, motor vehicle casualties, social connectedness, and voter turnout. These indicators reflect different aspects of community life and belonging. P a g e 67

78 2.2.1 Caring and volunteer work Definition: Proportion of the population aged 15 years or more who are involved in either looking after a member of own or another household who is ill or has a disability, or doing other helping or voluntary work for or through an organisation, group or marae. Relevance: Social care and health faces unprecedented pressures with increasing demands and decreasing funding. Unpaid caring and volunteering work is a way to ease some of this pressure. The amount of caring and volunteering activity happening is also a proxy measure of community engagement and social connectedness. It helps increase social cohesion and supports economic activity in addition to alleviating the pressure on health and social services. Findings: Across New Zealand, a quarter of the population aged 15 years or more reported being involved in some form of caring and volunteer work; either looking after a member of their own or another household who is ill or has a disability, or doing other helping or voluntary work for or through an organisation, group or marae (Figure B-10). This proportion is slightly higher in the Waikato VS Region (27.2 per cent). However, both, regionally as well as nationally, the proportion of people involved in unpaid caring and volunteer work has marginally declined over the intercensal period. This decline is seen across all three TAs, with Waikato District having the highest proportion of its 15+ year population involved in caring and volunteering work in 2013, similar to the regional average. Figure B-10: Proportion of the usually resident population aged 15 years or more who reported doing unpaid caring and volunteering work, Census 2001, 2006 and 2013 Page 68

79 Other related findings: There are noticeable differences in the level of caring and volunteer work done by people at different life stages. Middle aged people (45-64 years) are more likely to do unpaid work with almost a quarter reporting to be involved in some form caring and volunteering work at the 2013 Census. The lowest participation is among youth (15-24 years). This pattern is seen both regionally as well as nationally (Figure B-11). Figure B-11: Proportion of the 15+ year population doing unpaid caring and volunteering work disaggregated by broad age groups, Census 2013 Māori have the highest rate of participation, with well over one-third (34.9 per cent) involved in unpaid caring and volunteering. Rate is also high for Pacific peoples. The lowest rate of involvement in caring and volunteer work is among Asians (Figure B-12). Figure B-12: Proportion of the 15+ year population doing unpaid caring and volunteering work disaggregated by broad ethnic groups, Census 2013 Page 69

80 Technical information: Data source: Statistics New Zealand, Census data Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Excludes the population who did not respond to the census as well as the census respondents who did not provide a valid response to the census question from which this variable is derived. P a g e 70

81 2.2.2 Community engagement Definition: Level of agreement of surveyed residents (aged 18 years or more) on whether they have enough say in what their council does. Relevance: Local government wields significant influence over the lives of citizens and affects them in many ways on a daily basis. Engaging with the community is a critical aspect of democracy in New Zealand in terms of the important role of the Council in local representation, participation and decision-making. Community involvement is critical for effective local governance and an effective partnership involves consultation with the community to develop shared visions and goals. Findings: Community engagement is measured using an Agreement Index (AI score) a weighted score across the agreement scale which ranges from Strongly Disagree (score zero) to Strongly Agree (score 100). The Waikato Region scored relatively low on the Agreement Index in 2013 (46.2), a decline from the index recorded at the previous 2010 survey. This indicates that a majority of the surveyed population across the region would like to have more say in what their local council does. There are similar findings in the two TAs of Waikato District and Hamilton City. In contrast, the Matamata-Piako District scores higher on the Agreement Index (59.9 per cent in 2013) with the majority reporting feeling satisfied with the level of local council consultation. Figure B-13: Level of agreement of the surveyed 15+ year population on whether they have enough say in what their council does; 2007, 2010 and 2013 Page 71

82 Technical information: Data source: MARCO Waikato Regional Perception Survey data sourced from the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District and Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. These errors are even more significant at the TA level. P a g e 72

83 2.2.3 Community pride Definition: Level of agreement of the surveyed population (aged 18 years or more) on whether they feel a sense of pride in the way their city/town looks and feels. Relevance: Residents who feel a strong sense of pride in the city or district where they live are key to building strong, thriving and sustainable communities. They help promote the positive aspects by being advocates for their region and contribute towards improving their neighbourhood and surroundings. Community pride is also about social connectedness and is likely to increase participation and investment in the city/district. Findings: Community pride is measured using an Agreement Index (AI score) a weighted score across the agreement scale which ranges from Strongly Disagree (score zero) to Strongly Agree (score 100). As per the findings from the 2013 survey, there is a high level of agreement (68.4) across the Waikato Region with the statement You feel a sense of pride in the way your city/district looks and feels. The agreement index has more or less remained unchanged over the last three surveys. The agreement index in Hamilton City (66.9), is similar to the regional average, while that in the Waikato District is lower (60.6). There is a greater sense of pride in Matamata-Piako with surveyed residents scoring much higher on the agreement scale (76.6). Figure B-14: Level of agreement of the surveyed 15+ year population on whether they feel a sense of pride in the way their city or district looks and feels; 2007, 2010 and 2013 Page 73

84 Technical information: Data source: MARCO Waikato Regional Perception Survey data sourced from the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District and Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. These errors are even more significant at the TA level. P a g e 74

85 2.2.4 Crime Definition: Number of offences recorded annually* per 10,000 population. Relevance: Crime is a topic of considerable public interest. Rising levels of reported crime are perceived as a threat to safety, property and people s sense of wellbeing. This can influence people s decisions on where and how they live. Higher levels of crime may also lead to increased pressure on support systems and other resources (for example, physical and mental healthcare services, financial assistance from the government or charities) (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators Crime). Findings: The number of recorded offences per 100,000 population is higher across the Waikato Police District compared to the national average and this pattern is seen at each of the three fiscal years (year ending June). The rate of recorded offences has declined over the six-year period, 2007/ /14, both, across the police district and nationally. Comparing the three sub-district areas, the number of recorded offences per 100,000 population is highest in Hamilton City and lowest in Waikato West. Figure B-15: Number of offences per 10,000 population recorded by the police annually; 2007/08, 2010/11 and 2013/14 Page 75

86 Other related findings: New Zealand has one of the lowest crime rates in the world (assaults and homicide rates). Dishonesty offences in the form of theft, unlawful entry, robbery and related offences regularly account for around half of all recorded crime. Since 2004, there have been increases in some forms of reported crime including acts intended to cause injury, abduction, harassment and public order offences. However, at least part of this rise can be attributed to greater awareness and reporting of family violence and other forms of victimisation (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators Crime). Technical information: Data source: New Zealand Police - Crime Statistics Geography: Police Areas and Police District - Hamilton City, Waikato East, Waikato West and Waikato Police District Data caveats and limitations: Recorded offences do not necessarily reflect the extent of actual crime in New Zealand. These statistics provide only a partial picture of crime in New Zealand because not all crime committed or experienced is reported to Police and furthermore, not all crime reported to Police is recorded in Police statistics. P a g e 76

87 2.2.5 Motor vehicle casualties Definition: Number of people seriously injured or killed in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population. Relevance: Motor vehicle crashes are a major cause of premature death, especially among younger age groups. Death, injury and disability resulting from motor vehicle crashes inflict pain and suffering on individuals, families and communities, and can also result in significant financial hardship. Major motor vehicle crashes also impact on other road users, emergency service providers, health workers and others. Findings: Compared to the national average, the Waikato VS Region has a higher proportion of the total population either seriously injured or killed in a motor vehicle accident (Figure B-16). The road casualty rate has declined over the period both regionally and nationally. Matamata-Piako District has the highest number of people injured or killed in a crash, closely followed by the Waikato District. In comparison, the rate is significantly lower in Hamilton City. A report by the Ministry of Social Development noted that road casualty rates are relatively higher in rural areas, particularly those with state highway corridors, due to the increased speed of vehicles involved (Ministry of Social Development, 2010). To be noted is that among the three TA areas, Matamata-Piako is the only TA where the number of road fatalities and serious injuries per 100,000 has increased over the period. Figure B-16: Number of people seriously injured or killed in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population; 2009, 2011 and 2013 P a g e 77

88 Other related findings Among the OECD countries, New Zealand ranks thirteenth in terms of the fatality rate (see Appendix Figure 1). The national road crash fatality rate is disaggregated by five year age groups for the 2014 year in Figure B-17. The number of people (per 100,000) who died immediately or within 30 days of an accident is highest amongst youth and young adults (15-29 years) and also among the older population, especially those aged more than 80 years, who are more likely to be the passengers in the vehicles involved in the accident. As per a report released by the Ministry of Transport, young drivers aged years had the primary responsibility in 85 per cent of the 61 fatal traffic crashes recorded for this age group in The total 2,909 crashes involving year olds in 2014, resulted in 58 deaths, 487 serious injuries and 2,433 minor injuries. The total social cost of the crashes in which year-old drivers had the primary responsibility was $718 million. Of all young drivers (15 24 years old) involved in fatal crashes between 2012 and 2014, 79 percent were male (Ministry of Transport, 2015). Figure B-17: Fatality rates in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population disaggregated by five year age groups; New Zealand, 2014 As per the 2010 Social Report (Ministry of Social Development, 2010), Māori are significantly more likely than non-māori to die as the result of a motor vehicle accident. In 2007, the provisional agestandardised road accident death rate was 22 per 100,000 population for Māori and 9 per 100,000 for non-māori. Page 78

89 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand Transport Agency and Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: The law requires that all road traffic accidents that involve a motor vehicle and result in someone being injured be reported. However, not all road traffic injuries are reported to the police. Under-reporting is most evident amongst single vehicle crashes, motorcycle accidents and crashes involving alcohol. Those that are not reported will not be included in the analysis presented. P a g e 79

90 2.2.6 Overall life satisfaction Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who self-reported to be satisfied or very satisfied with how they feel about their life as a whole. Relevance: Overall life satisfaction is a way to measure well-being. It is a subjective or selfassessed measure gauging how satisfied people are with their lives. If a person s perception of their overall quality of life is high, then this tends to relate positively to their personal wellbeing. Self-assessed overall life satisfaction can measure the gap between a person s hopes and expectations and their current situation. Circumstances that may influence life satisfaction include health, education, employment, income, personality, family and social connections, civil and human rights, levels of trust in others, and opportunities for democratic participation. Findings: Across the Waikato Region, approximately 85 per cent of the surveyed respondents in 2014 reported feeling satisfied or very satisfied with their life as a whole and this proportion is marginally higher than the national average. A similar trend is seen at the previous two surveys, although, the regional average in 2012 and 2010 was lower than that observed for total New Zealand. On the other hand, the proportion of the surveyed population rating overall life satisfaction more positively has more noticeably increased in 2014 compared to that recorded in Figure B-18: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who self-reported to be satisfied or very satisfied with how they feel about their life as a whole; 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 Page 80

91 Other related findings: When disaggregated by life stages, older people in New Zealand are more likely to feel satisfied with their life while those aged between 45 and 64 years rate their perception of overall life satisfaction the lowest. Older people may be more satisfied with their life for a number of reasons. They are generally more financially secure, have raised their children, have become grandparents, or have a better balance between paid work and their recreational time. On the other hand, middle aged people manage a challenging mix of family, work, and financial commitments, which may be reflected in this group s lower levels of satisfaction with their lives (Statistics New Zealand, 2015). People identifying with the Māori and Pasifika ethnic groups have the lowest proportion of respondents who are satisfied or very satisfied in terms of life satisfaction. Europeans had the highest self-rated well-being rates of all the major ethnic groups. The differences in self-rated wellbeing across ethnic groups could be related to many factors, including the differences in each group s age structure. Māori and Pacific population groups have a much younger age profile, and given that self-rated life satisfaction is lower among younger age groups, this might partially explain the lower proportion feeling satisfied with their life as a whole. The other population groups with lower self-rated life satisfaction are people with no qualifications, people living in crowded conditions, sole parents, the unemployed and those with low incomes (Statistics New Zealand, 2015). Figure B-19: Overall life satisfaction (proportion satisfied or very satisfied ) of surveyed 15+ year population disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups, New Zealand 2014 Page 81

92 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS) data sourced from Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: In 2008, 2010 and 2012 respondents were asked, in a single question, how they felt about their life as a whole (at the time of the interview). Respondents chose from: very satisfied, satisfied, neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, dissatisfied, very dissatisfied. In 2014, respondents were asked how they felt about their lives overall on a scale of 0-10 (completely dissatisfied to being completely satisfied). For the purpose of comparability, scales '7 to 10' of the 2014 dataset have ben grouped into a single category 'Very satisfied/satisfied'. Measuring feelings can be very subjective, but is nonetheless a useful complement to more objective data when comparing quality of life. Subjective data can provide a personal evaluation of an individual s health, education, income, personal fulfilment and social conditions. Surveys, in particular, are used to measure life satisfaction and happiness. P a g e 82

93 2.2.7 Perception of safety Definition: Safeness index measuring how safe the surveyed population aged 15 years or more feel walking alone in their neighbourhood at night. Relevance: Assessment of how safe people feel walking in their neighbourhood at night can be a useful way to gauge how safe people think they are in their locality. People feeling unsafe may be less likely to talk to their neighbours, trust others living in the area, use public transport, use public amenities and generally participate in their community. Findings: The overall Waikato Region recorded a safeness index of 65.9 at the 2013 Survey, which is marginally higher than in the previous years. Among the three TA areas, the feeling of safety at night time is lowest in the Waikato District and highest in Matamata-Piako, although the relatively high sampling errors resulting from sample sizes means the data needs to be look at with caution. Figure B-20: Safeness index measuring how safe the surveyed population aged 15 years or more feel walking home alone at night; 2007, 2010, 2013 Other related findings The results from the MARCO survey show that people living in high income households and those happy with their quality of life rate higher on the safeness index (Waikato Regional Council, 2013). Looking at the findings from the New Zealand General Social Survey where a similar question is asked, older people (65+ years) and Māori and Pacific population groups have a comparatively lower proportion of respondents who report feeling safe walking in their neighbourhood at night (Statistics New Zealand, 2015). Page 83

94 Technical information: Data source(s): MARCO Waikato Regional Perception Survey data sourced from the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District and Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. These errors are even more significant at the TA level. P a g e 84

95 2.2.8 Social connectedness Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or over who self-reported feeling lonely none of the time during the four weeks preceding the survey. Relevance: The indicator measures the absence of loneliness as reported by survey respondents. Family and friends are the primary source of care and support for most people. Staying in touch with family and friends helps maintain social connectedness between households and across geographical boundaries. Self-assessed loneliness is a proxy indicator of social connectedness which can gauge whether people are happy with the amount and quality of social contact they have. As well as being an undesirable state in itself, loneliness may also contribute to poor outcomes in other areas including adverse health problems such as stress, anxiety and depression. Findings: Over the period, , the proportion of the survey respondents self-reporting an absence of loneliness has increased. The proportion is lower in 2014, however, as noted, the question was changed from asking people whether they felt isolated in to whether they felt lonely. Figure B-21: Proportion of the surveyed 15+ year population who reported feeling lonely none of the time in the four weeks preceding the survey; 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 Page 85

96 Other related findings Looking at the 2014 survey data, a comparatively lower proportion of Asian and Māori respondents self-reported feeling lonely none of the time over the four weeks preceding the survey. When disaggregated by broad age groups, the self-rated absence of loneliness declines with age, with respondents at older age groups feeling most socially connected and young people the least. Figure B-22: Social connectedness (feeling lonely none of the time ) disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; New Zealand, 2014 A weak social network can result in limited economic opportunities, a lack of contact with others, and eventually, feelings of isolation. A strong social network on the other hand, can provide emotional support during good and bad times, as well as provide access to jobs, services and other opportunities. Based on the OECD Better Life Index 7 data findings, New Zealand ranks 8 th (out of 36 OECD countries) in terms of social support networks. Approximately 94 per cent of New Zealanders believed that they knew someone they could rely on in a time of need; much higher than the OECD average of 88 per cent. 7 Page 86

97 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS) sourced from Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: The NZGSS asked people, in the last four weeks, how often have you felt isolated from others? The response options were: all of the time, most of the time, some of the time, a little of the time and none of the time. Given this is a subjective question, the resulting measure is one of loneliness rather than an objective measure of social isolation data is not directly comparable with prior years due to a change in the wording of the survey question. In previous years the question derived the 'percent who felt isolated none of the time' while in 2014 it was 'percent who felt lonely none of the time'. Therefore, comparison over time should be treated with caution. Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. P a g e 87

98 2.2.9 Voter turnout Definition: Percentage of all enrolled electors (residents and ratepayers) who cast a vote in local authority councillor elections*. *Regional council elections in the case of Waikato Region Relevance: Voting is a fundamental way for people to express their political will. Citizens participating in the political process and in civic affairs is a sign of a healthy democracy. It also reflects people s sense of connection with and investment in the issues that affect the society in which they live. Low voter turnout can affect the degree to which a politician or a political institution can be seen as truly representing what people in their electorate want for their region and for New Zealand. Measuring voter turnout can indicate where more work needs to be done to better engage the voting public to enable an improved connection between the community and local and central government. Findings: Voter turnout in the Regional Council elections has significantly declined from approximately 49 per cent recorded in 2001 to just under 40 per cent in Looking at the local authority councillor elections, Waikato District had the lowest turnout of voters (31.6 per cent) and Matamata-Piako the highest (44.8 per cent). As per the findings from the Waikato Progress Indicators (WPI) of the Waikato Regional Council, voter turnout in district councils tends to be higher than for regional and city councils, especially for those councils like Matamata-Piako which have a smaller constituency. The voter turnout has increased over the last three local authority councillor elections in Hamilton City and Matamata-Piako, whereas the converse is true for the Waikato District, where the participation rates have declined over Figure B-23: Enrolled electors (residents and ratepayers) casting a vote in local authority councillor elections (regional council elections in the case of Waikato Region); 2007, 2010 and 2013 Page 88

99 Technical information: Data source(s): Electoral Commission/Department of Internal Affairs data sourced from the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Data for Waikato Region are based on voter turnout in regional council elections. The TA level and New Zealand average data is for the voter turnout for local authority councillor elections and therefore any comparison should be done with caution. Voter turnout figures do not include votes cast in Māori electorates, and there is no feasible method of estimating the number of Māori enrolees or votes by General electorate or Region. For this reason, the estimates of voter turnout are understated, and this is likely to be most pronounced in regions with a relatively high proportion of Māori among the total population. P a g e 89

100 2.3 Vital Sign: Culture & Arts Vital Sign: Culture & Arts Speaking te reo Māori gives access to te ao Māori (the Māori world) and to Māori world views. Te reo Māori helps develop cultural identity and make a connection to a rich cultural heritage. It also helps to provide access to social networks, providing support for shared hopes and values. Being involved in the arts can improve an individual s wellbeing as well as providing opportunities for social connectedness through participation and attendance. There are many forms of arts; performing arts, such as theatre and ballet; literary arts, including poetry and book readings; craft and object arts, including ceramics and quilting; visual arts, including sculpture and painting; Pacific arts, including weaving and tapa making; Māori arts, including carving and kapa haka. 8 Two indicators were selected for this section, the first to show the level of attendance and participation in the arts in the Waikato and the second to indicate the number of people identifying with the Māori ethnic group who can speak te reo Māori. 8 For a fuller definition go to w_zealand_and_the_arts_research_publication_-_final.pdf? P a g e 90

101 2.3.1 Attending/participating in arts Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have attended and/or actively participated in at least one arts event (or venue) in the 12 months preceding the survey. Relevance: This indicator provides information on the attitudes and level of involvement of the people in the arts and is a measure of participation of the wider community. Participation in the arts can be a proxy measure of social connectedness; it builds social cohesion and reduces loneliness and isolation. Involvement in arts and culture can enhance well-being. People attend arts events or actively participate in the arts for many reasons: for enjoyment and entertainment, as a means of creative expression, for personal growth and the pursuit of excellence, to learn new skills, to meet new people, and to celebrate cultural traditions. Findings: Overall in 2014, the proportion of the surveyed population attending and/or participating in at least one arts event (or venue) in the last 12 months (of the survey) has increased nationally from the level recorded in the 2008 survey. Females are more likely to attend/participate than men and this pattern has held true in all survey years. Figure B-24: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have attended and/or participated in at least one arts event (or venue) in the 12 months preceding the survey; 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014 P a g e 91

102 Other related findings When disaggregated by age and ethnic groups, attendance and/or participation is highest among the youngest (15-29 years) and the Māori and Pacific ethnic groups, and lowest among those aged 75 years or more and Asians. Figure B-25: Attendance and/or participation in arts disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; New Zealand, 2014 A Creative New Zealand report showed that, compared to the national average, attendance and participation in the arts is lower in the Waikato Region. Approximately 83 per cent of the survey respondents in the Waikato region reported attending at least one arts event in the four weeks preceding the survey (compared to 85.0 per cent nationally) and only 45 per cent reported participation (compared to 58 per cent nationally). Page 92

103 Technical information: Data source(s): Arts Council of New Zealand - Creative NZ Survey data sourced from Statistics New Zealand Geography: New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: The Creative New Zealand Survey defines attendance as going to: Art galleries or exhibitions or online galleries or film festivals Performances in theatres, contemporary dance, ballet, concerts or circuses Poetry or book readings, or literary festivals Cultural performances, festivals, exhibitions or celebrations of Pacific or Māori arts (Creative New Zealand, 2015, p.4) Participation is defined as active involvement in the making or presenting of different art forms (Creative New Zealand, 2015, p. 4). Attendance and participation were captured over a 12- month period and all respondents in the survey were aged 15 and over. Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. P a g e 93

104 2.3.2 Te Reo Māori speakers Definition: The proportion of the Māori population who reported in the Census that they could hold a conversation about everyday things in Te Reo Māori. Relevance: The Māori language, te reo Māori, is a crucial component of collective Māori identity and is part of what makes Māori as a people, and Aotearoa New Zealand as a country, unique. Te reo is protected under the Treaty of Waitangi and, since 1987, has been recognised as an official language (the others being English and New Zealand sign language). The Māori Language Commission states that the Māori language is a taonga that gives our country its distinct and unique cultural identity. For Māori to thrive as a language of everyday use, we must encourage its use in our homes and communities as much as possible. Findings: Less than a quarter (23.7 per cent) of the Māori population across the Waikato VS Region reported in the 2013 Census that they could hold a conversation about everyday things in Te Reo Māori, slightly higher than the national average of 21.7 per cent. The proportion of te reo speakers in the region has declined over the inter-censal period, and this trend is seen across all three TAs. The smallest proportion of te reo speakers among the resident Māori population is in the Matamata-Piako District (21.7 per cent) and the highest in the Waikato District (28.1 per cent). Figure B-26: Proportion of the Māori population who reported that they could hold a conversation about everyday things in Te Reo Māori; Census 2001, 2006 and 2013 Page 94

105 Other related findings Disaggregating the data by life stages for the 2013 Census, the proportion of te reo speakers declines with age; the highest proportion seen among the older Māori population. At all age groups, the regional average is higher than that recorded nationally. Figure B-27: Proportion of Te Reo Māori speakers in the Māori population disaggregated by broad age groups; Census 2013 Measuring the number of Māori language speakers within a population can indicate how connected Māori and non-māori living in our region are with regional and New Zealand history; our indigenous heritage and people; and each other. Only 5.6 per cent of the total usually resident population of the Waikato Region in 2013, reported being able to speak Māori, which, although higher than the national average, is lower than the 6.3 per cent recorded in 1996 for the region. Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand, Census Data Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region, New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Excludes the population who did not respond to the census as well as the census respondents who did not provide a valid response to the census question(s) from which this variable is derived. Also excludes the population who are too young to speak. Page 95

106 2.4 Vital Sign: Economy Vital Sign: Economy The economy is a set of production and consumption activities that help to decide how resources are allocated within a designated area, such as a country or region. Measuring the economy usually relates to the overall economic viability and sustainability of an area and the contribution that area makes in the broader national and/or international context. Economic living standards concern the actual circumstances in which people live, the goods and services they are able to purchase and the economic resources they have access to, such as an adequate income. Basic necessities such as enough food, clothing and access to housing are essential to wellbeing. Homeownership indicates what proportion of people live in an owned or partly owned home and represents financial stability and security for individuals and families. Household crowding has been linked to the prevalence of some infectious diseases as well as poor educational achievement (Ministry of Social Development, 2010). Income inequality compares high incomes (80th percentile) with low incomes (20th percentile) and high income inequality may indicate lower levels of overall life satisfaction. Unemployment can isolate people from society which in turn reduces wellbeing and may mean a loss of self-confidence. Research has shown that unemployment is associated with lower levels of physical and mental health (MSD, 2010). This section has five indicators to measure economic standard of living: gross domestic product, home ownership, household crowding, income inequality and unemployment. These indicators provide a view on different aspects of economic standards of living, including an overview of the equality of resource distribution and the adequacy of people s incomes. P a g e 96

107 2.4.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Definition: Ratio of Waikato Region's nominal GDP per capita to that of total New Zealand. Relevance: The gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country's economy. It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period and can be thought of as the size of the economy. Regional GDP is a geographic breakdown of national GDP which indicates the size and structure of regional economies and provides a benchmark for measuring changes to regional economies over time. The ratio of Waikato Region's nominal GDP per capita to that of total New Zealand measures how well the region is doing in terms of productivity compared to the national average. A ratio of less than one indicates lower productivity per capita. Findings: Figure B-28 shows the ratio of Waikato Region s nominal GDP per capita to that for total New Zealand. A ratio of less than one indicates that the region s GDP is lower than for New Zealand, and greater than one indicates higher GDP per capita for the Waikato Region compared to the national average. The nominal GDP per capita of the Waikato Region has increased over the period but remains lower than the national average. Figure B-28: Ratio of Waikato Region s nominal GDP per capita to that for total New Zealand; Page 97

108 Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: It should be noted that GDP was not designed to measure social wellbeing and is incapable of assessing quality of life. GDP must be relegated to the purpose for which it was originally designed as a simple quantitative measure of the size of the economy. The following limitations of using GDP as a progress indicator should be taken into account (Ministry of Social Development, 2004): counts the depletion of a country s natural wealth as if it were economic gain; makes no qualitative distinctions, so that crime, sickness, accidents, pollution, disasters, war and other liabilities may spur economic growth and contribute to progress ; excludes the value of unpaid voluntary and household work; ignores the value of free time, leading to the anomaly that overwork and stress spur economic growth and are therefore mistakenly counted as signs of progress; fails to account for equity and distributional issues. P a g e 98

109 2.4.2 Home ownership Definition: Proportion of the population aged 15 years or more who live in owned or partly owned residences. Relevance: A home is often a family's greatest financial asset and homeownership is an important factor for neighbourhood stability and civic participation. Household tenure is an important aspect of housing in New Zealand since it has implications for household security (both physical and financial), as well as for the national economy. The highest form of tenure security for a household is ownership of the dwelling it occupies. Numerous benefits accompany dwelling ownership, including a degree of financial security and a reduced risk of disruption from frequent changes of dwelling. Findings: Over the past three censuses the percentage of New Zealand households that own the dwelling they occupy has decreased, suggesting a move away from a long standing national preference (and ability) for home ownership. This trend is seen not only in the Waikato VS Region but also across the three TAs. Factors affecting home ownership are both demographic as well as economic. Rising cost of housing, increasing participation in alternative forms of long term investment, a high level of student debt, larger number of students or a more transient population and people forming families later in life can be some possible factors. Figure B-29: Proportion of the population aged 15 years or more who live in owned or partly owned residences; Census 2001, 2006, 2013 Page 99

110 Other related findings Middle-aged and older people are more likely to live in homes they own. In terms of ethnicity, home ownership rates are highest for the European/Other and lowest among Pacific peoples, Māori and MELAA ethnic groups. Hamilton City has the lowest proportion of its population living in owned or partly owned residences. A high student population and younger age profile of the city (compared to the other two TAs) is a probable cause as Figure B-30 shows, the likelihood of home ownership is very low among young people. On the other hand, Matamata-Piako District has the highest proportion, more than half, of its resident population living in homes owned or partly owned. The older age profile of this district along with the smaller proportion of Māori, Pacific and MELAA ethnic groups among its residents is a contributing factor. Figure B-30: Home ownership disaggregated by broad age and ethnic groups; Waikato VS Region, Census 2013 Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand, Census Data Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Excludes the population who did not respond to the census as well as the census respondents who did not provide a valid response to the census question(s) from which this variable is derived. Page 100

111 2.4.3 Household crowding Definition: Proportion of the population (in private occupied dwellings) living in crowded* conditions. *Crowding is defined when one or more bedrooms are required in a household. Relevance: Crowding in households relates to situations where the number of people residing in a household exceeds the capacity of the household to provide adequate shelter and services to its members. Freedom from crowding is one of the six dimensions of housing adequacy. Housing space adequate to meet the needs and desires of a family is a core component of quality of life. Household crowding is a good proxy measure of the economic standard of living of a household. Household crowding is linked to a number of health conditions including rheumatic fever, meningococcal disease, respiratory infections including pneumonia and skin infections (e.g., cellulitis), as well as elevated blood pressure and increased risk of childhood injuries (Maani, Vaithianathan, & Wolfe, 2006; Baker, Barnard, & Kvalsvig, 2012). Research also show an association of household crowding with poor educational attainment and psychological distress (Thomson, Thomas, & Sellstrom, 2013). Findings: Figure B-31 shows what proportion of the resident population of each of the 20 DHB areas across New Zealand lives in crowded conditions, as measured at the 2006 and 2013 Census. The Waikato DHB area ranks ninth, with 8.9 per cent of the resident population living in crowded households in This is lower than the national average of 10.1 per cent and has declined from the level recorded in As per a report released by the Ministry of Health (2014), household crowding is relatively uncommon for most populations in New Zealand, with the exception of some sociodemographic groups, particularly Māori, Pacific peoples and children. Over half of crowded households have two or more children (at least one child aged between 5 and 14 years) living in them. Two in five Pacific people (38 per cent) and one in five Māori (20 per cent) and Asian (18 per cent) people live in crowded households. This compares to 1 in 25 Europeans (4 per cent). Additionally, of the people living in crowded households nationally, 9 per cent live in households that do not use any form of heating in their houses. P a g e 101

112 Figure B-31: Proportion of the population (in private occupied dwellings) living in crowded conditions; Census 2006 and 2013 Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand, Ministry of Health report 'Analysis of Household Crowding based on Census 2013 data' Geography: Waikato DHB and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Crowding is shown as a percent and is calculated using the Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS). It includes all people in households who responded to the occupancy question in the census as opposed to the total population. People in non-private dwellings and those in visitor only dwellings are excluded. Absentees are included. Excludes people living in non-private dwellings, such as boarding houses and night shelters because household and room data has not been collected for these dwellings. Page 102

113 2.4.4 Income inequality Definition: Income Inequality in New Zealand as assessed by the P80/P20 Ratio for the and Gini coefficient. Relevance: The level of income inequality is often seen as a measure of the fairness of the society we live in. A high level of inequality may also mean the population is less socially connected as a whole. Research suggests a negative relationship between income inequality and other factors with an influence on well-being such as trust, social mobility, health outcomes, and the rate of imprisonment. The P80/20 ratio is a measure of the inequality between high-income and low-income households, after adjusting for household size and composition. The higher the ratio, the greater the level of income inequality. The Gini coefficient is also a measure of income inequality where zero expresses perfect equality (for example, where everyone has the same income) and a score of one expresses maximal inequality (for example, where only one person has all the income or consumption, and all others have none). Findings: In New Zealand, income inequality as measured by the P80/P20 ratio has been increasing over the period, with the income inequality after adjusting for housing costs higher than before adjustment for housing costs (as housing costs generally make up a greater proportion of household income for lower income than for higher income households). The most rapid rises in income inequality occurred during While income inequality also rose during , the rate of increase was slower. During , income inequality fell, a decline which can be attributed to the Working for Families package (Perry, 2015). During however, the impact of the economic downturn and global financial crisis led to volatility in the index, with Perry noting that it may take one or two further surveys before the post-crisis inequality level becomes clear. In terms of the Gini coefficient, New Zealand ranks seventh alongside Australia and Italy for income inequality among the OECD countries (see Appendix Figure 2), with a Gini coefficient of 0.33, marginally higher than the OECD average of The Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) data released by the Waikato Regional Council records a Gini coefficient of 0.28 for the region in 2013 (Figure B-33). P a g e 103

114 Figure B-32: Income inequality, P80/20 ratio by after housing costs (AHC) and before housing costs (BHC); New Zealand, Figure B-33: Gini coefficient; Waikato Region, Other related findings Income inequality is one of the most visible manifestations of differences in living standards within each country. High income inequalities typically imply a waste of human resources, in the form of a large share of the population out of work or trapped in low-paid and low-skilled jobs. New OECD research shows that when income inequality rises, economic growth falls. One reason is that poorer members of society are less able to invest in their education. Rising inequality is estimated to have wiped off a third off New Zealand's economic growth in the past 30 years (OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, 2014). Until the 1980s, New Zealand used to be one of the most equal countries in the world (although that equality didn t extend to all groups). But in the two decades from the mid-1980s on, the gap between the rich and the rest increased faster than anywhere else in the developed world. In Page 104

115 1986, the top 10 per cent took home 26.5 per cent of New Zealand's income. In 1999, it was 37.8 per cent and in 2004, it was 33.2 per cent (Source: Inequality: A New Zealand Conversation 9 ). A United Nations report in October last year showed New Zealand's child poverty rates had fallen by less than half a per cent since By contrast, Australia reduced its child poverty rate by more than 6 per cent over the same period, and Finland and Norway, countries with similar populations, reduced theirs by more than 4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively 10. Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand and Ministry of Social Development (using data from Statistics NZ s Household Economic Survey), Gini Coefficient data from Market Economics Ltd sources from WPI dataset and the OECD Income Distribution Database Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. 9 Retrieved from 10 Income inequality: How NZ is one of the worst in the world, Retrieved from P a g e 105

116 2.4.5 Unemployment Definition: Proportion of the people in the labour force who are unemployed. Unemployment is defined as being without paid work, where a person was available for work and actively seeking work. Relevance: The unemployment rate reflects labour market and overall economic conditions and gives a sense of how easily people can become employed. Unemployment represents an underutilisation of labour resources, and has the potential to constrain growth and restrict prosperity. At an individual and family level, unemployment is associated with financial insecurity, stress, poor health outcomes, and a wide range of social problems. These issues can worsen if a person remains unemployed for a sustained period. Findings: In New Zealand, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate across the Waikato Region follows a similar trajectory as that nationally and is marginally higher than the New Zealand rate over most of the period. The unemployment rate across New Zealand was at a peak in 1992 (annual rate of 10.9 per cent) and fell to a low of 3.7 per cent in As economic growth declined throughout 2008 and the first half of 2009, unemployment rose. The annual rate rose to 6.7 percent in 2013 and again falling to 5.8 percent in 2015 (Source: Statistics New Zealand Progress Indicators). Comparing the unemployment rate of the year population in 2014 for the OECD countries (see Appendix Figure 3), New Zealand ranks eighth among countries with lowest unemployment rates 6.0 per cent compared to the OECD average of 7.5 per cent. Figure B-34: Unemployment rate (annual June), Waikato Region and New Zealand; Page 106

117 Other related findings The unemployment rates have declined for all four major ethnic groups over the period as seen in Figure B-35. Māori and Pacific groups have the highest unemployment rates and NZ Europeans the lowest. Figure B-35: Unemployment rate (annual June) by major ethnic groups; 2011, 2013 and 2015 Looking at the work and labour force status derived from the 2013 Census data, among the three TAs, unemployment rates are highest in Hamilton City (9.5 per cent) and lowest in Matamata- Piako (5.0 per cent). Technical information: Data source(s): Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), Statistics New Zealand Geography: Waikato Region and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. P a g e 107

118 2.5 Vital Sign: Education Vital Sign: Education Education improves people s ability to meet their basic needs, shapes their life direction and expands the options available to them in all walks of life. The knowledge and skills people have gained can also enhance their feelings of self-worth and belonging. Many people define themselves by what they do, either at work or in other parts of their lives. Access to information and proficiency with technology are becoming increasingly important in today s society, which means people will need higher levels of skills and knowledge. Gaining skills and knowledge can come from education and training but also through everyday life. Learning a sport and parenting children are good examples. Education also relates directly to employment decisions and career choices. Those people with few educational qualifications have limited work opportunities and low incomes and are more likely to be unemployed which will in turn affect their standard of living. Three indicators were selected for this section; participation in early childhood education, school leaver qualifications and tertiary qualifications. Each provides a snapshot of the attainment of skills and knowledge in the education continuum. P a g e 108

119 2.5.1 Educational attainment Definition: The proportion of the population aged years who have completed a level 4 or higher-level qualification. Relevance: The level of formal educational qualifications is a commonly used proxy for human capital. A higher level of human capital can improve economic efficiency by providing organisations and individuals with knowledge and skills for economic development. Higher levels of formal education contribute to higher skills and better jobs for individuals and boosts economic growth by increasing productivity. Educational attainment is also important for participation in society and personal satisfaction. The Government has set a target that 55 percent of 25 to 34 year olds will have a qualification registered on the New Zealand Qualifications Framework at level 4 or above by 2017 (see Better Public Services: Boosting skills and employment). Findings: Across the Waikato VS Region, the proportion of the adult population aged years with a level 4 or higher qualification is less than half (47.9 per cent), well below the national average of 52.4 per cent. This proportion has increased over the inter-censal period across the Region as well as the three TAs. Hamilton City had the highest proportion (54.9 per cent) of year olds with at least a Level 4 qualification, higher than the national average; and Matamata- Piako has the lowest at 38.6 per cent. Figure B-36: Proportion of the population aged years who have completed a level 4 or higherlevel qualification; Census 2006 and 2013 Page 109

120 Other related findings Māori and Pacific population aged years have the lowest levels of educational attainment and Asians have the highest. Figure B-37: Educational attainment of year olds disaggregated by major ethnic groups; Census 2013 Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand, Census Data Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region, New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Incudes people aged years who reported having a level 4-6 qualification, bachelor s degree or level 7 qualification or a postgraduate, honours, masters or doctorate degree. Excludes the population who did not respond to the census as well as the census respondents who did not provide a valid response to the census question(s) from which this variable is derived. Page 110

121 2.5.2 No qualification Definition: The proportion of the adult population aged years with no formal qualifications. Relevance: The acquisition of a tertiary qualification provides individuals with a higher level of skills and knowledge to participate in the labour market. Research shows that people from socially disadvantaged backgrounds are at a higher risk of leaving school with no qualifications. Young people without qualifications are at increased psychosocial risk. A number of studies have pointed to a cause and effect linkage in which leaving school without qualifications may increase subsequent risks of criminal behaviours, substance use and adjustment problems. Specifically, it has been proposed that educational underachievement and failure leads to decreased social bonds to the school and communities, which in turn leads to increased risks of crime and delinquent behaviours (Fergusson, Swain-Campbell, & Horwood, 2002). Findings: Compared to the national average of 12.5 per cent, a higher proportion of the adult population aged years across the Waikato VS Region reported having no formal qualifications (15.9 per cent). This proportion has declined since the last census nationally, regionally, as well as in the Waikato District and Hamilton City. The converse is true in Matamata-Piako, with the proportion of year olds with no formal qualifications increasing over the inter-censal period, The district also has the highest proportion, a little over one in four, of the year population with no formal qualifications. Hamilton City has the lowest at 11.7 per cent. Figure B-38: Proportion of the usually resident population aged 15 years or more with no tertiary qualifications; Census 2006 and 2013 Page 111

122 Other related findings A very high proportion of the Māori and Pasifika population aged years reported having no formal qualifications at the 2013 Census. Asians had the lowest proportion with no qualifications among those aged years. Figure B-39: Proportion with no tertiary qualifications disaggregated by major ethnic groups; Census 2013 Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand, Census Data Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region, New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Excludes the population who did not respond to the census as well as the census respondents who did not provide a valid response to the census question(s) from which this variable is derived. Page 112

123 2.5.3 Participation in early childhood education Definition: The number of enrolments of children aged 3 and 4 years in early childhood centres (ECE) or home-based education programmes as a proportion of estimated 3 and 4 year olds. Relevance: The early childhood years are fundamental to a child's development and future ability to learn. Both New Zealand and international research has shown that quality early childhood programmes prepare young children socially, physically and academically for primary education. Early childhood education can also assist in narrowing the achievement gap between children from low income families and those from families with higher income levels. The education children get before they start school may help their literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills. It benefits students well into their teenage years. High-quality early childhood education (ECE) can lead to higher levels of achievement and better social outcomes. (See Education counts Publications.) Findings: The proportion of 3 and 4 year olds enrolled in early childhood education (ECE) across the Waikato VS Region has remained mostly unchanged over the period and is much lower than the national average. Figure B-40: Proportion of the estimated population of children aged 3 and 4 years who are enrolled in an early childhood education centre or a home-based education programme; Page 113

124 Other related findings Māori children aged 3 and 4 in the region have much lower rates of participation in ECE, 76.5 per cent in 2014 compared to a participation rate of 91.7 per cent for all 3 and 4 year olds. Figure B-41: Participation in early childhood education for Māori children aged 3 and 4 years, compared to total New Zealand; 2013 There are proportionally more children aged zero to four years in the most deprived localities in New Zealand 11 and children from these localities also have lower rates of ECE participation. Ka Hikitia 12 sets a target for prior ECE participation of 95 per cent all Māori children starting school. Currently the figure is 90.3 per cent. The Pasifika Education Plan targets for Pasifika children were revised for the period and aim for the proportion of Pasifika children starting school who have participated in ECE to increase from 86.2 per cent in 2012 to 98 per cent in Priority children are deemed to be non-participating Māori and Pasifika children, and children from low socioeconomic communities (Ministry of Education, 2013). Technical information: Data source(s): Ministry of Education, Education Counts Geography: Waikato Region, New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: As children can be enrolled at more than one ECE centre, the rates of participation may therefore be inflated. This measure does not provide information on the length of participation or on the quality of the programmes, both of which are important for positive educational outcomes. 11 Based on comparison between Ministry of Health deprivation index and 2006 Census population data. 12 The Māori Education Strategy Page 114

125 2.5.4 Qualification of school leavers Definition: The proportion of secondary school leavers who leave school with a National Certificate of Educational Attainment (NCEA) Level 2 or 3 qualification. Relevance: Upper secondary education provides preparation for higher (post-secondary) learning and training opportunities as well as direct entry into the work force. Those who leave school early with few or no qualifications have an increased risk of unemployment or vulnerability in the labour market, as well as having low incomes. The main qualification available to secondary school students in New Zealand is the NCEA, which encompasses a wide range of learning. NCEA enables students to undertake multilevel study to attain credits towards levels 1, 2 and 3. NCEA level 2 is considered to be minimum level required for future education and employment prospects. Findings: Across the Waikato VS Region, approximately three-quarters (74.7 per cent) of the students who left school in 2014 had a qualification of NCEA Level 2 or 3. This proportion has increased over the period but is lower than the national average of 77.1 per cent. The proportion of school leavers with a higher attainment than NCEA Level 1 has increased over the period across all three TAs. Hamilton has the highest proportion of school leavers with NCEA Level 2 or 3 and Waikato District the lowest. Figure B-42: Proportion of secondary school leavers who leave school with a National Certificate of Educational Attainment (NCEA) Level 2 or 3 qualification; 2010, 2012 and 2014 P a g e 115

126 Other related findings When disaggregated by the major ethnic groups, Māori and Pacific students leaving school have the lowest level of NCEA Level 2 or 3 attainment and Asians the highest. Figure B-43: Qualification of school leavers (NCEA Level 2 or 3) disaggregated by broad ethnic groups, 2014 Technical information: Data source(s): Ministry of Education, Education Counts Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato VS Region, New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: School leavers are identified from the Ministry of Education's ENROL system, while the highest qualification status for each leaver is obtained from NZQA. Where a student achieved a non-nqf qualification, highest attainment information is obtained directly from their school. School leavers in 2013 (and likewise for other years) are students who permanently left school to enter the workforce and/or undertake further education and training sometime between 1 March 2013 and the last day of February 2014 (inclusive). Page 116

127 2.6 Vital Sign: Environment Vital Sign: Environment New Zealanders wish to enjoy all the New Zealand environment has to offer, such as a temperate climate and clean water and beaches. There is extensive use in New Zealand of the land and marine environments for both personal and commercial purposes. The condition of our land is important as this may affect productivity in terms of agriculture and other land-based industries. Some protected areas have less than 10 per cent indigenous cover remaining which indicates they are acutely threatened (Waikato Regional Council, 2013). Our economy also depends on a plentiful supply of fresh water for tourism, agriculture and hydroelectricity generation. For Māori, especially in the Waikato region, fresh water is taonga and essential to life and identity. The availability of recycling facilities is seen as important in the region as well as whether the local ecological environment has improved. Five indicators were selected for this section. The first assesses people s underlying ecological views and attitudes using the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale (see glossary). Other indicators for water and recycling measure people s perceptions of pollution in rivers and streams and attitudes towards recycling. Soil quality measures whether selected sites are meeting targets while the threatened environments indicator measures chronically and acutely threatened legally protected areas in the Waikato. P a g e 117

128 2.6.1 Environmental attitudes Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population found to be pro-ecological, mid-ecological or anti-ecological on the 6-item New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale. Relevance: This indicator measures the level of positive environmental attitudes expressed by people in the Waikato region measured using the average regional NEP (New Ecological Paradigm) scale score. Understanding people s positive or negative attitudes towards protecting the Waikato region s environment helps councils to focus their activities aimed at achieving this. Monitoring people s environmental attitudes means gauging how much support there is for proposed actions, policies and rules related to protecting the environment. People s comments may also reveal which areas in the region are experiencing the most pressures (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Findings: The results fluctuate over time. However, looking at the two years, 2000 and 2013 when the survey sample size was comparatively more robust, the result is reasonably similar with approximately nine out of every ten people surveyed across the Waikato Region assessing themselves to be proecological or mid-ecological in their attitude towards the environment. Twelve per cent of respondents had anti-ecological attitudes in 2013, compared with 15 per cent in 2008, 23 per cent in 2004 and 10 per cent in Figure B-44: Attitude of the surveyed 15+ year population towards the environment, measured on the 6-item New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale; 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2013 Page 118

129 Technical information: Data source(s): Environmental Awareness, Attitudes and Action (EAAA) and the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) surveys, Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. P a g e 119

130 2.6.2 River water quality Definition: The percentage of unsatisfactory river water samples for ecological water quality in the Waikato Region s rivers and streams, as an average across all sites measured. Relevance: Monitoring a representative cross-section of rivers and streams across the Waikato region helps councils to assess the suitability of their water quality for native water plants and animals to live in (ecological water quality). Water quality not only affects the surrounding habitat; it can also impact elsewhere, because what happens in one area of the catchment can directly affect what happens in another. For example, soil erosion issues in the Waipa catchment can contribute to sedimentation in the Waikato River and flooding in the Lower Waikato. Contamination at one site in a river can flow to other sites further down the catchment. Monitoring these sites helps councils to identify and manage issues so they can protect or improve water quality in these areas. Land use and what people do are two key areas influencing water quality. Sharing this information with people in the region can encourage them to consider the impact of their activities on water quality. They may also become motivated to work together with councils and other people in their community to keep the Waikato region s water quality and its environment protected now and in the future (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Findings: The average proportion of unsatisfactory river water samples for ecological water quality for the period at over 100 monitoring sites throughout the Waikato Region was largely unchanged from River water quality for ecological health is generally good across the region. However, in areas where land use is more intensive, water quality for ecological health is poorer (for example, Hauraki and the lowland tributaries of the Waikato River). This is mainly because of the greater intensity of land use in the lowland parts of the Waikato Region. Over the past ten years, water quality at the ten Waikato River sites has been mostly stable, with some notable improving trends (total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, arsenic) as well as worsening trends (nitrate, biochemical oxygen demand). There have been a relatively small number of improvements in water quality, particularly the improvement in concentrations of total phosphorus at seven of the ten sites. But there have also been a similarly small number of deteriorations, particularly the deterioration in concentrations of total nitrogen at three of the P a g e 120

131 sites and in turbidity at two of the sites Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Figure B-45: River quality measured at various Waikato river sampling sites between 1995 and 2014 Technical information: Data source(s): Water quality trends in the Waikato River between 1995 and 2014 (using methods in Waikato Regional Council Technical Report 2013/20), data sourced from the Waikato Progress Indicator (WPI) dataset provided by Waikato Regional Council. P a g e 121

132 2.6.3 Soil quality Definition: The estimated percentage of soil quality monitoring sites in the Waikato region meeting five or more soil quality targets. Relevance: Measuring soil quality for four main land use types in the Waikato Region helps councils assess whether they are suited to the activities they support. These activities include dairy farming, dry-stock farming (sheep, beef, deer etc.), horticulture and cropping, and plantation forestry. Good quality soils are those whose key characteristics are in good condition for their current land use. Monitoring these sites helps councils to identify and manage issues so they can protect or improve soil quality in these areas through their policies and plans, regulation and education. This includes working directly with people involved in activities or industries that can have a significant impact on the land, to ensure our region s soils remain viable now and in the future (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Findings: Between 2003 and 2013, the percentage of soil quality monitoring sites in the Waikato region which met five or more soil quality targets decreased from 89 per cent to 80 per cent. As at 2013, an estimated only 11 per cent of total productive land in the Waikato region met all seven soil quality targets (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Figure B-46: Proportion of the monitoring sites across the Waikato Region meeting five or more soil quality targets; Page 122

133 Technical information: Data source(s): Waikato Progress Indicators (WPI) dataset provided by the Waikato Regional Council (soil quality monitoring programme) Geography: Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Waikato Regional Council monitors soil quality sites throughout the region against seven targets agreed by the National Land Monitoring Forum: total carbon (organic matter), total nitrogen (N), mineralised N, soil ph (acidity/alkalinity), phosphorous (P), soil density and macro-porosity (a measure of the ability for air to penetrate the soil) (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). P a g e 123

134 2.6.4 Threatened environments Definition: Percentage of the legally protected areas that are acutely (less than 10% indigenous cover left) or chronically (10-20% indigenous cover left) threatened. Relevance: The native plants and trees of New Zealand are unique, having evolved in isolation for millions of years. Protecting land is one way we can preserve and regenerate our native vegetation in a sustainable way and retain an area s natural character. Areas of protected land also provide a valuable place for our native animals to live in. Small sections of protected land such as forest fragments can also provide a corridor between larger areas of protected land, providing indigenous links for native birdlife to move between areas of native vegetation. Identifying and monitoring our areas of protected land enables councils, individuals and environmental groups to work together to manage and preserve these areas for future generations (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Findings: Protected areas are defined as A clearly defined geographical space, recognised, dedicated and managed, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the long-term conservation of nature with associated ecosystem services and cultural values." Legally protected areas are internationally recognised as important tools for conserving species and ecosystems, and they include both publicly and privately owned land (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Most of the Waikato region's land area is in non-indigenous cover with approximately 28% covered by indigenous (native) vegetation.17 per cent of this area (399,459.2 ha) is legally protected for conservation and biodiversity protection purposes (399,459.2 ha, which is 59 per cent of the region's indigenous cover). As of March 2014, the legally protected area of the region's most threatened environments was 17, ha. The protection of these environments varies across districts. In 2007, the Government released a statement of national priorities for protecting rare and threatened biodiversity on private land (Ministry for the Environment & Department of Conservation, 2007), where acutely (less than 10 per cent indigenous cover left) and chronically (10-20 per cent indigenous cover left) environments are categorised as National Priority 1 Environments. The priorities are also relevant to public land. As specified by the Ministry, 20 per cent is a critical threshold for measuring ecosystem vulnerability - the rate of biodiversity loss increases dramatically when the amount of available habitat drops below 20 per cent of its P a g e 124

135 original extent. Therefore, National Priority 1 Environments are the habitats most in need of protection (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Figure B-47: Percentage of the legally protected land area with indigenous cover that is chronically or acutely threatened Technical information: Data sources: Waikato Progress Indicators (WPI) dataset provided by the Waikato Regional Council. For more information on these data go to Page 125

136 2.6.5 Waste recycling Definition: Proportion of the surveyed respondents aged 18 years or more who think that the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area has become better, worse or stayed the same in the last few years. Relevance: With increasing population, the estimated amount of waste going into landfills in the Waikato region is also increasing. When waste ends up in our landfills, it can indicate how efficiently or inefficiently we are in using our resources. This is particularly concerning when discarding reusable and recyclable materials such as paper, plastic, organic waste, glass and metal. It s not just the inefficient use of resources that is of concern. Some forms of waste produce greenhouse gases (which can affect climate change) and others can have significant health impacts on humans and animals. We also need to manage our waste effectively to avoid it polluting the Waikato Region s waterways, air and land (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Looking at people s assessment of the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area can be useful in identifying whether extra support is needed to make recycling easier for people. Findings: The majority of the surveyed population across the Waikato Region felt that the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area have either stayed the same or are better off in the last few years. Approximately 12.0 per cent felt that the services and facilities in their area have changed very little or become much worse. P a g e 126

137 Figure B-48: Assessment by surveyed respondents aged 18 years or more on the availability of waste recycling services and facilities in their area; 2003, 2006 and 2013 Technical information: Data source(s): Environmental Awareness, Attitudes and Action (EAAA) Survey, Waikato Regional Council Geography: Waikato Region Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. Page 127

138 2.7 Vital Sign: Health Vital Sign: Health Health is a vital dimension of wellbeing. Poor health means people are less able to enjoy life, their opportunities will be more limited and levels of overall contentment are likely to be reduced. Good health has two major components, how long people live (life expectancy) and the quality of their lives. Living a long life free from disability and pain is an aim we can all share. Some people need further support because of illness, injury or disability. This support may be from families or from the government to help them participate more fully in society and improve their social wellbeing. People with disabilities, illness (both mental and physical) or injury may find there are barriers to their participation in education, training and employment which would reduce their economic standard of living. These barriers may also decrease social interactions and leisure pursuits which could lead to feelings of isolation and frustration. In this section four indictors have been selected. These were chosen to provide a snapshot of current health in the Waikato region and cover life expectancy, cigarette smoking, obesity and mental health - mood or anxiety disorder (diagnosed). Life expectancy relates to the current state of the region s health. It measures how long people live and is an indicator of fatal health outcomes. Cigarette smoking and obesity, are predictors of future health outcomes. Both are linked by research to poor health outcomes such as an increased risk for heart attacks and cancer. The fourth indicator, prevalence of psychological distress, gives an indication of the social wellbeing of the population of the Waikato DHB area. P a g e 128

139 2.7.1 Cigarette smoking Definition: Percentage of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who are current smokers. People are considered to be current smokers if they smoke at least monthly, and have smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lives. Relevance: Smoking is a major risk factor for many cancers and for respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Smoking is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in New Zealand and is also linked to socio-economic disadvantage. Around 5,000 people die each year in New Zealand because of smoking or second-hand smoke exposure. That s 13 people a day. Internationally, tobacco smoke is responsible for about 1 in 10 adult deaths about 5 million deaths each year (OECD Fact book). Findings: As measured at the New Zealand Health Survey, one out of every five people (20.3 per cent) aged 15 years or more across the Waikato Region reported being a current smoker in the 2011/14 period. This is lower than the proportion recorded in the 2006/07 year for the region but higher than the national average of 17.3 per cent. Figure B-49: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who reported being a current smoker; 2006/07 and 2011/14 Page 129

140 Other related findings Rate of smoking tobacco is highest among the prime working age population and lowest among those aged 65 or more. Not shown here, but in all age groups, smoking rate is higher for males than it is for females (Source: Ministry of Health). The smoking rate among the 15+ year Māori population is more than twice that for their non- Māori counterparts. Figure B-50: Proportion of current smokers disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/14 Figure B-51: Proportion of current smokers disaggregated by broad ethnic groups; 2011/14 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand Health Survey, Ministry of Health Geography: Waikato DHB area and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. Page 130

141 2.7.2 Life expectancy Definition: Life expectancy at birth Relevance: Life expectancy at birth is defined as how long, on average, a new-born can expect to live, if current death rates do not change. That is, it measures the average length of life at birth. Life expectancy at birth is one of the most frequently used health status indicators. Gains in life expectancy at birth can be attributed to a number of factors, including rising living standards, improved lifestyle and better education, as well as greater access to quality health services (OECD, 2016). This indicator is presented as a total and also disaggregated by sex, and is measured in years. Findings: Most OECD countries have enjoyed large gains in life expectancy over the past decades, thanks to improvements in living conditions, public health interventions and progress in medical care. Life expectancy at birth in New Zealand stands at 82 years, two-year above the OECD average of 80 years. Life expectancy for women is 83 years, compared with 80 for men, a smaller difference than the average OECD gender gap of five years, with a life expectancy of 82 years for women and 77 years for men. Higher life expectancy is generally associated with higher health care spending per person, although many other factors have an impact on life expectancy (such as living standards, lifestyles, education and environmental factors) (Source: OECD Better Life Index). Figure B-52: Life expectancy at birth for males and females; 2005/07 and 2012/14 Page 131

142 Other related findings The life expectancy at birth for the Māori population, both males and female, is significantly lower than that for non-māori. Figure B-53: Life expectancy at birth for Māori and non-māori; 2012/14 Independent life expectancy (ILE) is a measure of health expectancy that both the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Social Development use as a headline or peak health indicator. ILE is defined as the average number of years that a person can be expected to live independently, either free of any disability (functional limitation) or with functional limitations that they can manage without assistance (Ministry of Health, 2013). The following findings have been concluded from the results of the 2013 Disability Survey and the period life tables: Males have shorter lives than females but spend a higher proportion of their lives in good health. Māori males have the lowest ILE and live longest with dependency. At the age of 65 years, New Zealanders can expect to live half of their remaining lives independently (54.1% for males and 49.5% for females). Technical information: Data source(s): Statistics New Zealand Period Life Tables Geography: Waikato District, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako District, Waikato Region, New Zealand Page 132

143 2.7.3 Obesity Definition: The (unadjusted) prevalence of obesity in the surveyed population aged 15 years or more. Obesity is defined as having a Body Mass Index (BMI) greater than 30 for European and other ethnicities and 32 for Māori and Pacific peoples. Relevance: There is now a considerable body of evidence linking obesity with a wide range of health issues. It is associated with heart disease, diabetes, strokes, high blood pressure and some cancers. The increase in the prevalence of obesity has been identified as a major cause of the projected increase in diabetes. There are also a range of adverse social and emotional effects associated with obesity and being overweight, including discrimination, lower wages, lower quality of life, and susceptibility to depression. Findings: Between 2006/07 and 2011/14, the unadjusted prevalence of obesity has increased both, regionally as well as nationally. Based on the findings from the New Zealand Health Survey, well over one in three youth and adults aged 15 years or more (35.2 per cent) across the Waikato DHB area are obese, which is much higher than the national average of 29.7 per cent). Figure B-54: Prevalence (unadjusted) of obesity in the population aged 15 years or more; 2006/07 and 2011/14 Page 133

144 Other related findings Looking at the prevalence rates by broad age groups, obesity is most prevalent among the middle aged population and lowest among young people. In terms of ethnicity, one in two Māori aged 15 years or more (50.2 per cent) are obese, the prevalence significantly higher than that for non-māori (31.3 per cent) Figure B-55: Unadjusted prevalence of obesity disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/14 Figure B-56: Unadjusted prevalence of obesity disaggregated for Māori and non-māori; 2011/14 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand Health Survey, Ministry of Health Geography: Waikato DHB and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. Page 134

145 2.7.4 Psychological distress Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have high or very high levels of psychological distress as measured on the Kessler-10 scale 13. Relevance: Psychological distress can be a sign of mental illness, which can take a huge toll on individuals and their families, society, and the economy. Stress is both an outcome of other health determinants and a key influence on mental and physical health in its own right. Research has identified several biological mechanisms by which stress has an impact on health, including several chronic illnesses. Good mental health is fundamental to the wellbeing of individuals, their families and the population as a whole. Findings: Based on the findings from the New Zealand Health Survey, 5.7 per cent of the population aged 15 years or more residing in the Waikato DHB area suffered from high or very high levels of psychological distress as measured by the Kessler-10 (K-10) scale. This is similar to the national average of 5.6 per cent. Both regionally as well as nationally, the unadjusted prevalence of psychological distress is higher among women than men. Figure B-57: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years or more who have high or very high levels of psychological distress as measured on the Kessler-10 (K-10) scale; 2011/14 13 A score of 12 or more on the Kessler-10 (K10) scale. This indicates a high or very high probability of having an anxiety or depressive disorder. Page 135

146 Other related findings The prevalence of psychological distress is similar among young people and adults aged less than 65 years. It is lowest among the oldest population group of 65+ year olds. Disaggregating the findings for Māori highlights a significantly higher prevalence of psychological distress (8.0 per cent) compared to non-māori (5.1 per cent). Figure B-58: Prevalence of psychological distress disaggregated by age groups; 2011/14 Figure B-59: Prevalence of psychological distress for Māori and non-māori; 2011/14 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand Health Survey, Ministry of Health Geography: Waikato DHB and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. Page 136

147 2.8 Vital Sign: Recreation Vital Sign: Recreation For many people, active participation in physical recreation improves both their mental and physical health. Physical activity can be anything from involvement in a sport, a walk in the park or playing with children or grandchildren. Research has shown that increased physical activity can mean fewer health issues, better productivity at work and increased social connectedness. The single indicator in this theme measures people s participation in physical activity and how active they are. Moderate physical activity has been shown to improve health outcomes. P a g e 137

148 2.8.1 Physical activity Definition: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years and over who reported having done at least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity (or equivalent) on five or more days in the past week. Relevance: Physical inactivity has been estimated to cost the Waikato regional economy $106 million every year. Participation in physical activity has positive benefits for people s physical fitness and mental wellbeing, as well as being a source of enjoyment and entertainment. According to the New Zealand Heart Foundation, an active lifestyle can help reduce the risk of preventable diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, obesity and some cancers. It can also provide benefits for people and the wider community through improved mental health, community life, social wellbeing and community safety (Source: Waikato Progress Indicators, Waikato Regional Council). Findings: The New Zealand Health Survey (2011/14) finds that approximately 46.3 per cent of the people aged 15 years or more living in the Waikato DHB area participate in regular physical activity, a notable decline from the proportion recorded for the previous period 2006/07. The level of physical activity in the DHB area is lower than that recorded for total New Zealand (52.4 per cent). Figure B-60: Proportion of the surveyed population aged 15 years and over who reported having done at least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity (or equivalent) on five or more days in the past week; 2006/07 and 2011/14 Page 138

149 Other related findings Not surprisingly, the level of physical activity is lowest among older people. It is also lower for youth when compared to people in prime working ages or middle-aged people. In all age groups, the reported level of physical activity is lower in the Waikato DHB area compared to the national average. Figure B-61: Physical activity disaggregated by broad age groups; 2011/14 Technical information: Data source(s): New Zealand Health Survey, Ministry of Health Geography: Waikato DHB and New Zealand Data caveats and limitations: Survey data is subject to four types of errors sampling error, measurement error, coverage error and non-response error. Page 139

150 Glossary Access to telecommunic ation systems Birthplace Census Area unit (CAU) Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS) Census of Population and Dwellings Demographic changes The ability of residents in a private dwelling to communicate, through cellphone, telephone, fax, or the Internet, with people outside the dwelling and to use services provided through these media. The device(s) and connection(s) must be in working order. This data provides information on access to telecommunication systems at the household level. It does not show whether a particular household member has access to those amenities. In some cases, not every member of a household may have equal access to particular telecommunication systems such as a cell phone or the Internet. Birthplace refers to the country where a person was born, and uses the name of the country at the time of the census. Country is the current, short or official name of a country, dependency, or other area of particular geopolitical interest. Non-administrative areas made up of mesh-blocks. Area units aggregate to define geographic areas such as territorial authorities, regional councils, and New Zealand. At the 2013 Census there were 2,020 area units. The Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS) is one of several indicators available that is used to evaluate the extent of crowding in New Zealand. CNOS has been developed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to help determine the number of bedrooms a dwelling should have to provide freedom from crowding and is based on the number, age, sex and interrelationships of household members. The CNOS states that: no more than two people shall share a bedroom parents or couples may share a bedroom children under 5 years of age of the same or opposite sex may share a bedroom children under 18 years of age of the same sex may share a bedroom a child from 5 to 17 years of age should not share a bedroom with a child under 5 years of age of the opposite sex single adults 18 years of age and over and any unpaired children require separate bedrooms. The five-yearly Census of Population and Dwellings is the official count of population and dwellings in New Zealand, providing a snapshot of society at a point in time. The 2013 Census of Population and Dwellings was taken on Tuesday 5 March 2013, and the official time for the census to be taken was midnight of that day. Changes to the structure of the population such as the age, gender or ethnic composition. P a g e 140

151 Dependency Ratio District health boards (DHBs) Dwelling Estimated resident population (ERP) Ethnicity Family (family nucleus) Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents (population younger than 15 and older than 65 years) to the working age population (those aged years), expressed as the number of dependents per 100 working-age population (Source: World Bank). Dependency ratios indicate the potential effects of changes in population age structures for social and economic development, pointing out broad trends in social support needs. As populations grow older, increases in old-age dependency ratios are indicators of the added pressures that social security and public health systems have to withstand (Source: United Nations). Dependency ratios do not allow for the fact that some people in the working-age population may not be in the workforce, while some people aged 65+ may be in the workforce. In the case of those aged 65+, the term 'dependency' does not necessarily imply financial or economic dependency, as those aged 65+ are generally living longer, are healthier, and are working longer. District health boards (DHBs) are organisations responsible for providing or purchasing health services in a particular district of New Zealand (although some health services are funded and purchased nationally by the Ministry of Health). There are 20 DHBs in New Zealand, with DHB populations ranging from 30,000 to over 1 million people. A structure, part of a structure, or group of structures that is used, or intended to be used as a place where people reside. A dwelling may be permanent or temporary and may function as private or non-private. The ERP is an estimate at a given date (usually 30 June) of all the people who are usually resident in the country. This estimate includes all residents present in New Zealand and counted by the census Usually Resident Population (URP), residents who are temporarily overseas (who are not included in the census), and an adjustment for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census undercount). Visitors from overseas are excluded. The estimated resident population also includes an update for births, deaths, and net migration (arrivals less departures) of residents during the period between census night and the given date. The ethnic group(s) that people identify with or feel they belong to. It is a measure of cultural affiliation rather than race, ancestry, nationality, or citizenship. In census statistics, a couple, with or without children, or one parent and their children, usually living together in a household. The children do not have partners or children of their own living in the same household. Related people, such as siblings, who are not in a couple or parent-child relationship, are therefore excluded from this definition. P a g e 141

152 Gini Coefficient Gross domestic product (GDP) GDP (nominal) Household Imputation Data Kessler-10 Scale Labour force Labour Market Entry to Exit Ratio Life stages The Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in some cases, consumption expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Gini coefficient of zero represents perfect equality and 1, perfect inequality. A measure of the value-added of all goods and services produced in New Zealand. Changes in GDP measure growth or contraction in economic activity or output. GDP can be measured on either an expenditure or production basis and in either real or nominal terms. The value-added of goods and services produced in the economy expressed in current prices. In census statistics, one person who usually resides alone, or two or more people who usually reside together and share facilities (such as eating facilities, cooking facilities, bathroom and toilet facilities, and a living area), in a private dwelling. There are two types of imputation data: imputation of records to create a substitute individual or dwelling records and the imputation of variables where respondents have not answered a question. For substitute forms only certain variables such as age and sex are imputed, most variables are given a nonresponse code (SNZ, 2013b). The Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) a set of 10 questions used to screen for serious mental illness in the general population. A K10 score of 12 or more indicates high or very high levels of psychological distress. Where people have these levels of psychological distress there is a high or very high probability that they have an anxiety or depressive disorder. The K10 was developed for use in the US National Health Interview Survey. Members of the working-age population (15+ years), who during the survey reference week, were classified as 'employed' or 'unemployed. Number of people entering the labour market (population aged years) per 100 exiting (population aged years). The entry to exit ratio is a good indicator of population ageing and has important implications for the labour market as well as educational demand. Age groupings that reflect the different experiences people have at different times in their lives (eg like being in education, working, forming families, and retirement). These stages are: young people (15 24 years), prime working age (25 44 years), middle-age (45 64 years) and older people (65 years and over). P a g e 142

153 Meshblock Multi-stage sampling NCEA NEET rate NZDep2013 Index of Deprivation OECD Probability proportional to size (PPS) The smallest geographic unit for which Statistics NZ collects statistical data. Meshblocks vary in size from part of a city block to large areas of rural land. Each meshblock borders another to cover all of New Zealand, and extending out to the 200-mile economic zone (approximately 320 kilometres). Meshblocks aggregate to build larger geographic areas, such as area units, territorial authorities, and regional councils. At the 2013 Census, there were 46,637 meshblocks in New Zealand. Multi-stage sampling is a sample that is selected by stages, where the sampling units at each stage are subsampled from the larger units chosen at the previous stage. For example, for a survey of individuals (the population units), a country may be divided into physical areas (the first-stage units). In the areas selected, dwellings are identified and some selected (the secondstage units). In the households selected, people are identified and some selected (the third stage and population units). (SNZ, A guide to good survey design, 4th ed, 2015). National Certificate of Education Achievement. A qualification on the National Qualification Framework based on credits from all unit and achievement standards. NCEAs are registered between levels 1 and 3, and are open to anyone assessed through an accredited provider. The rate is calculated as the total number of youth (aged years) who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET), as a proportion of the total youth working-age population. NZ Deprivation Index is a measure of the relative socio-economic deprivation of an area. The index combines nine variables from the 2013 census which reflect eight dimensions of deprivation (income, communication, employment, qualifications, home ownership, support, living space and transport) and provides a score for each mesh-block. In its ordinal form the index ranges from 1 to 10, where 1 represents areas of lowest socio-economic deprivation and 10 the areas of highest. Thus a score of 10 indicates that the area is in the most deprived 10 per cent areas in New Zealand. It should be noted that NZDep scores apply to areas and not individual people. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) which aims at promoting policies that will improve the economic and social wellbeing of people around the world. New Zealand in the OECD provides an easily understood statistical comparison of New Zealand with other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Probability proportional to size (PPS) refers to a sampling technique where the probability that a particular sampling unit will be chosen in the sample is proportional to some known variable such as population size or geographic size. ampling.doc+&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz P a g e 143

154 P80/20 Ratio P80/20 ratio shows the difference between high household incomes (those in the 80th percentile) and low household incomes (those in the 20th percentile). Quota sampling Relationship status Religious affiliation Rotating panel survey Social cost (road crashes) Status in employment Tenure holder Territorial Authority (TA) Quota sampling is a technique which specified the number of interviews required for different demographic groups to ensure the final sample reflects the demographic composition of the target population. It is the legally registered relationship status (previously known as legal marital status) or partnership status in current relationship (previously known as social marital status). Religious affiliation is the self-identified association of a person with a religion, denomination, or sub-denominational religious group. A religion is a set of beliefs and practices that usually involves acknowledgement of a divine or higher being or power, and that guides people s conduct and morals. A denomination is the church or religious sect that forms a subgroup of a religion. Denominations of a particular religion share the same principles but differ from each other in aspects such as the form of worship, or how they are governed. It is important to understand that the religious affiliation variable is not a measure of people s commitment, attendance or participation in religious organisations. For example, a person who has never formally attended a church service may report a Christian religious affiliation because their parents or grandparents were identified with that group. Surveys where the same respondents are interviewed for a number of consecutive occasions and then replaced, on a rotating basis, by a new set of respondents. A measure of the total cost of road crashes to the nation. It includes: loss of life and life quality; loss of productivity; and medical, legal, court, and property damage costs. Status in employment classifies employed people aged 15 years and over according to whether they were working for themselves or for other people in their main job. Tenure holder describes whether a person owns or partly owns the dwelling they usually live in. City and district councils, defined by aggregations of meshblocks or area units. When defining the boundaries of territorial authorities, the Local Government Commission placed considerable weight on the 'community of interest'. Most harbours and fiords, and some offshore islands, are included in territorial authority boundaries. At the 2013 Census, there were 67 territorial authorities in New Zealand. P a g e 144

155 Unadjusted prevalence Usually resident population (URP) Work and Labour Force status Prevalence is the percentage of the population who have the condition or outcome of interest, at one point in time. Unadjusted prevalence is where the rates have not been age standardised. Age-standardisation adjusts the subgroup prevalence to account for differing age structures. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand is a count of all people enumerated by census, who usually live in New Zealand, and were present in New Zealand on census night. A person is considered present in New Zealand if on census night, they were: on New Zealand soil, on a vessel in New Zealand waters, travelling between New Zealand ports. The census usually resident population count is as at midnight on census night. Work and labour force status classifies a person aged 15 years and over by their inclusion or exclusion from the labour force. For an employed person, it distinguishes between full-time employment (30 hours or more per week) and part-time employment (fewer than 30 hours per week). A person who was not employed is classified as either Unemployed or Not in the labour force. P a g e 145

156 References Acorn Foundation. (2015). Western Bay of Plenty's Vital Signs. Western Bay of Plenty: Acorn Foundation. Arts Council of New Zealand. (2015). New Zealanders and teh arts: Attitudes, attendance and participation in Wellington: Colmar Brunton. Atkinson, J., Salmond, C., & Crampton, P. (2014). NZDep2013 Index of Deprivation. Wellington: University of Otago. Baker, M., Barnard, G., & Kvalsvig, A. (2012). Increasing incidence of serious infectious diseases and inequalities in New Zealand; a national epidemiological study. The Lancet, 379(9821): Brown, D. (2009). Good Practice Guidelines for Indicator Development and Reporting. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Child Trends Data Bank. (2015). Teen Births: Indicators on Children and Youth. Child Trends Data Bank. Cooke, M., & Guimond, E. (2008). The current wellbeing of registered indian youth: Concerns for the future? Horizons, Vol. 10, no. 1. Cutts, D. B., Meyers, A. F., & Black, M. M. (2011). US housing insecurity and the health of very young children. Americal Journal of Public Health, 101(8). Fergusson, D. M., Swain-Campbell, N., & Horwood, J. L. (2002). Outcomes of leaving school without formal educational qualifications. Christchurch, New Zealand: Christchurch Health and Development Study, Christchurch School of Medicine. Kelley, B. T., Thornberry, T. P., & Smith, C. A. (1997). In the wake of childhood maltreatment. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice. Maani, S. A., Vaithianathan, R., & Wolfe, B. L. (2006). Inequality and Health: Is housing crowding the link? Wellington: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. Ministry of Education. (2013). Delivery of ECE Participation Initiatives: BAseline Report. Wellington: Ministry of Education. Ministry of Health. (2013). Independent Life Expectancy in New Zealand. Wellington: Ministry of Health. Ministry of Health. (2014). Analysis of Household Crowding based on Census 2013 data. Wellington: Ministry of Health. Ministry of Health. (2015, January). Annual update of key results 2014/15 - New Zealand Health Survey. Retrieved from New Zealand Health Survey: Ministry of Health. (2015, Januray). Methodology Report 2014/15: New Zealand Health Survey. Retrieved from New Zealand Health Survey: P a g e 146

157 Ministry of Health. (2015). Suicide Facts: Deaths and intentional self-harm hospitalisations Wellington: Ministry of Health. Ministry of Health. (2015). Suicide Facts: Deaths and intentional self-harm hospitalisations Wellington: Ministry of Health. Ministry of Social Development. (2004). The Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Insights for New Zealand. Wellington: Minitry of Social Development. Ministry of Social Development. (2006) The Social Report. Wellingtom: Ministry of Social Development. Ministry of Social Development. (2010) The Social Report. Wellington: Ministry of Social Development. Ministry of Transport. (2015). Young Drivers. Wellington: Ministry of Transport. OECD. (2016, February 03). Life expectancy at birth (indicator). Retrieved from OECD: OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. (2014). Does income inequality hurt economic growth? OECD. Perry, B. (2015). Household incomes in New Zealand: Trends in indicators of inequality and hardship 1982 to Wellington: Ministry of Social Development. Sceats, J., & Pawar, S. (2014). Current Trends for Teenage Births in New Zealand. Wellington: Families Commission (Superu). Statistics New Zealand. (2006). The Impact of Prioritisation on the Interpretation of Ethnicity Data. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. (2013, December 03) Census information by variable. Retrieved from Statistics New Zealand. (2013a). User guide for the 2012 New Zealand General Social Survey confidentialised unit record file. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. (2013b) Census data user guide. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand. (2015, January ). Household Labour Force Survey sources and methods:2015. Retrieved from Statistics New Zealand: Statistics New Zealand. (2015). New Zealand General Social Survey: Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Thomson, H., Thomas, S., & Sellstrom, E. (2013). Housing improvements for health and associated socio-economic outcomes. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2. Waikato Regional Council. (2013). MARCO Regional Waikato Perception Survey 2013: Regional Review Report. Hamilton: International Research Consultants Ltd. Waikato Regional Council. (2013). MARCO Regional Waikato Perception Survey 2013: Waikato District Report. Hamilton: International Research Consultants Ltd. P a g e 147

158 Appendix: Part A Appendix Table 1 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Waikato District disaggregated by sex and age Waikato District Age Group (in years) Sex Females 29,700 33,000 34,400 35,500 37,600 39,700 41,700 Males 29,800 33,500 35,100 36,400 38,700 40,900 43,100 Total 59,500 66,500 69,500 71,900 76,300 80,700 84, ,720 5,030 4,980 4,740 5,010 5,240 5, ,050 5,500 5,880 5,520 5,150 5,420 5, ,220 5,480 5,510 5,690 5,650 5,280 5, ,580 4,600 4,940 4,930 5,120 5,080 4, ,940 3,670 4,040 3,840 4,020 4,200 4, ,950 3,300 3,470 4,260 4,150 4,330 4, ,700 3,490 3,610 4,060 4,850 4,740 4, ,540 4,160 3,960 4,110 4,580 5,370 5, ,850 5,230 5,030 4,670 4,560 5,030 5, ,710 5,150 5,310 5,490 4,890 4,790 5, ,030 5,120 5,320 5,310 5,640 5,060 4, ,690 4,460 4,920 5,190 5,380 5,710 5, ,750 3,550 3,880 4,380 5,100 5,300 5, ,020 2,980 3,330 3,390 4,200 4,920 5, ,420 1,970 2,270 2,740 3,150 3,940 4, ,080 1,220 1,370 1,690 2,420 2,820 3, ,380 2,020 2, ,040 1,410 2,070 P a g e 148

159 Appendix Table 2 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033) population of Waikato District disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Asian European/Other Pacific peoples Māori Waikato District Females 7,500 8,450 9,300 10,200 11,200 12,400 Males 7,200 8,250 9,100 10,000 11,000 12,100 Total 14,650 16,700 18,400 20,200 22,200 24, ,300 5,890 6,160 6,340 6,720 7, ,560 2,700 3,310 3,920 4,200 4, ,750 4,070 4,150 4,450 5,180 6, ,440 3,180 3,660 3,930 3,980 4, ,120 1,470 1, ,000 Females 740 1,040 1,420 1,830 2,270 2,740 Males 790 1,460 1,850 2,270 2,720 3,200 Total 1,530 2,500 3,280 4,100 4,990 5, ,010 1,270 1,540 1,820 2, , ,110 1, Females 23,800 26,600 28,500 30,000 31,700 33,200 Males 24,000 26,600 28,900 30,900 32,900 34,800 Total 47,700 53,200 57,400 60,900 64,500 68, ,420 12,410 12,460 12,520 12,810 13, ,540 6,190 6,330 6,470 6,590 6, ,770 12,440 13,330 14,400 15,640 16, ,830 15,210 16,840 17,190 16,880 16, ,000 4,330 5,210 6,120 7,260 7, ,160 2,590 3,210 4,240 5,360 6,810 Females 950 1,330 1,610 1,830 2,070 2,300 Males 840 1,300 1,630 1,890 2,160 2,430 Total 1,800 2,640 3,240 3,720 4,220 4, ,020 1, ,030 1,200 1, Note: Multiple ethnicity count means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group. P a g e 149

160 Appendix Table 3 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033) population of Hamilton City disaggregated by sex and age Hamilton City Sex Age Group (in years) Females 69,800 77,800 81,000 84,200 89,300 94,300 99,100 Males 64,900 72,300 75,900 79,600 84,900 90,100 95,100 Total 134, , , , , , , ,980 12,040 11,980 11,710 12,230 12,450 12, ,400 10,440 11,210 12,070 11,550 12,060 12, ,690 9,860 9,850 10,800 12,280 11,770 12, ,430 12,150 12,490 12,250 13,060 14,550 14, ,060 14,710 15,570 15,520 14,980 15,780 17, ,710 11,870 12,990 13,760 13,590 13,060 13, ,580 10,460 11,120 12,150 13,470 13,320 12, ,520 9,510 9,870 10,540 11,950 13,260 13, ,190 9,860 9,830 9,560 10,430 11,830 13, ,580 9,140 9,410 9,830 9,410 10,280 11, ,550 8,910 9,020 9,010 9,630 9,230 10, ,600 7,750 8,020 8,690 8,740 9,370 8, ,930 6,640 7,170 7,550 8,430 8,500 9, ,890 5,430 6,030 6,460 7,340 8,230 8, ,180 3,950 4,320 5,230 6,250 7,130 8, ,830 2,930 3,200 3,650 4,860 5,850 6, ,020 2,380 2,430 2,490 3,150 4,250 5, ,620 2,140 2,320 2,510 2,800 3,470 4,700 P a g e 150

161 Appendix Table 4 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Hamilton City disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Asian European/Other Pacific peoples Māori Hamilton City Females 14,000 17,300 19,600 21,800 24,100 26,600 Males 13,200 15,900 18,200 20,500 22,900 25,400 Total 27,200 33,100 37,800 42,200 47,000 52, ,320 11,170 12,670 13,990 14,830 15, ,020 7,230 7,460 7,670 8,820 9, ,710 8,530 10,070 11,590 12,770 13, ,410 4,940 5,910 6,750 7,480 8, ,180 1,570 2,100 2, ,370 Females 2,870 4,000 5,050 6,200 7,350 8,600 Males 2,910 3,980 5,100 6,300 7,550 8,850 Total 5,780 7,980 10,200 12,500 14,900 17, ,260 3,050 4,000 4,970 5,610 6, ,260 1,770 1,930 2,130 2,750 3, ,540 1,990 2,500 3,010 3,460 3, ,330 1,720 2,130 2, Females 52,500 55,000 56,700 58,100 59,500 60,800 Males 47,700 50,200 52,300 53,800 55,300 56,700 Total 100, , , , , , ,330 21,310 21,380 21,250 20,820 21, ,170 18,010 18,270 18,570 19,490 19, ,020 27,080 28,050 29,230 30,690 32, ,360 24,110 24,320 23,450 22,000 21, ,180 7,900 9,280 10,000 10,550 10, ,120 6,770 7,690 9,400 11,260 12,960 Females 7,500 10,900 14,000 16,200 18,300 20,400 Males 7,200 10,500 14,200 16,800 19,400 22,000 Total 14,700 21,400 28,200 33,000 37,700 42, ,990 4,560 6,580 8,120 8,950 9, ,120 4,030 4,960 5,290 6,230 7, ,840 7,920 9,910 11,120 11,500 11, ,220 3,890 5,110 6,010 7,540 9, ,160 1,810 2,430 2, ,070 1,790 Note: Multiple ethnicity count means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group. P a g e 151

162 Appendix Table 5 Estimated (2006, 2013, 2015) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Matamata- Piako District disaggregated by sex and age Matamata-Piako District Sex Age Group (in years) Females 15,900 16,700 17,000 17,200 17,400 17,600 17,600 Males 15,300 16,100 16,600 16,800 17,100 17,300 17,400 Total 31,200 32,900 33,600 34,100 34,600 34,900 35, ,180 2,390 2,300 2,300 2,320 2,260 2, ,390 2,380 2,430 2,460 2,330 2,350 2, ,540 2,370 2,280 2,380 2,430 2,300 2, ,290 2,230 2,230 2,090 2,070 2,120 1, ,570 1,920 2,080 1,770 1,550 1,540 1, ,480 1,730 1,870 2,190 1,890 1,680 1, ,830 1,650 1,740 1,920 2,290 2,000 1, ,250 1,800 1,720 1,740 1,960 2,330 2, ,310 2,150 2,090 1,780 1,680 1,910 2, ,320 2,230 2,250 2,100 1,700 1,610 1, ,940 2,400 2,340 2,210 2,060 1,660 1, ,740 2,020 2,190 2,380 2,180 2,040 1, ,460 1,810 1,960 2,040 2,390 2,200 2, ,430 1,640 1,740 1,850 2,070 2,410 2, ,180 1,460 1,530 1,640 1,840 2,060 2, ,080 1,120 1,220 1,360 1,540 1,740 1, ,170 1,340 1, ,070 1,330 1,620 P a g e 152

163 Appendix Table 6 Estimated (2006, 2013) and projected (2018, 2023, 2028, 2033) population of Matamata-Piako District disaggregated by broad ethnic and age groups Māori Asian European/Other Pacific peoples Matamata-Piako District Females 2,110 2,580 2,890 3,140 3,420 3,730 Males 2,110 2,540 2,850 3,110 3,390 3,720 Total 4,230 5,120 5,740 6,250 6,810 7, ,470 1,890 2,000 2,080 2,150 2, ,050 1,160 1,300 1, ,120 1,190 1,310 1,440 1,610 1, ,060 1,100 1, Females Males Total , Females 14,100 14,600 14,800 14,800 14,800 14,700 Males 13,500 14,000 14,300 14,400 14,400 14,400 Total 27,700 28,700 29,100 29,200 29,300 29, ,080 5,990 5,990 6,020 5,990 5, ,260 3,490 3,170 2,890 2,920 2, ,800 6,100 6,190 6,380 6,490 6, ,780 7,550 7,570 6,990 5,980 5, ,490 2,890 3,150 3,470 3,910 3, ,240 2,650 3,080 3,510 3,980 4,530 Females ,030 1,160 1,290 Males ,010 1,160 1,300 Total 920 1,400 1,770 2,040 2,320 2, Note: Multiple ethnicity count means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group. P a g e 153

164 Appendix: Part B Appendix Table 7: Surveys used as a data source for the Waikato Vital Signs indicators and measures Census of Population and Dwellings The census is the official count of how many people and dwellings there are in New Zealand is usually held every five years. However, the Canterbury earthquake delayed the scheduled 2011 census until 2013 giving a seven year gap rather than five. The data produced by Statistics New Zealand are based on the Usually Resident Population census data. The Usually Resident Population (URP) counts reassigns visitors to their usual residence but are missing adjustments for census night undercount, and for people temporarily overseas on census night. Other limitations include non-respondents to the census or those were missed or counted more than once. The 2013 post-enumeration survey found that the census did not count 2.4 per cent of New Zealand residents on census night and the sampling error was +/- 0.5 per cent (Statistics New Zealand, 2013b). As the census aims to give complete coverage of the New Zealand population non-response is dealt with, where possible, by imputation. It should be noted, however, that only certain variables are imputed and the majority are given a non-response code (Statistics New Zealand, 2013a). This needs to be taken into consideration as non-response codes can affect the quality of the overall data. There are also possible sources of error which include errors made by individuals filling in the census form, collection errors made by those collecting the forms, and errors made during data processing (Statistics New Zealand, 2013b). Creative New Zealand Creative New Zealand is a national survey on public attitudes, attendance and participation carried out by Colmar Bunton on behalf of the Arts Council of New Zealand. In 2005, the Arts Council of New Zealand initiated a project exploring New Zealander s views towards the Arts. Surveys were carried out again in 2008 and then in 2014 with new questions included as the research evolved (Arts Council of New Zealand, 2015). The sample size in the national survey was n=1,180 which comprised of 1,000 telephone interviews and 180 door-to-door interviews (Creative New Zealand, 2015). Telephone interviews were conducted using CATI and sample numbers were generated using random digit dialling to ensure the interview spread was representative of the New Zealand population according to the 2013 census. Door-to-door interviews were also conducted with members of the Asian, Māori and Pacific Island communities to give more robust sample sizes from ethnic groups (Creative New Zealand, 2015). The total sample size of n=1,180 had a margin of error of ±2.85 per cent at 95 per cent confidence interval. The sample was weighted to account for region, sex, age, ethnicity and household size. P a g e 154

165 Environmental Awareness, Attitudes and Actions and New Ecological Combined Survey Household Labour Force Survey This survey was administered by the Waikato Regional Council as part of their ongoing monitoring programme of local environmental perceptions and issues (Waikato Regional Council, 2013). A total of 1005 interviews were conducted using CATI using a questionnaire designed by Waikato Regional Council. The sample was selected using quota sampling by sex, age, ethnicity and location and data was weighted at the end of the survey by age and sex to ensure the sample was representative of the Waikato regional population. The nonresponse rate to the survey in 2013/14 was 66 per cent and the final sample size had a margin of error of ±3.09 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence interval. Smaller territorial authorities were over-sampled and larger ones under sampled to ensure robust sample sizes as part of the quota. 6-item NEP Scale This survey also used the new ecological paradigm (NEP) scale as means of assessing people s ecological and environmental views. The Waikato Regional Council has, since 2000, been using a NEP survey every four years, although until 2013/14 this was carried separately. From 2008 the NEP scale was expanded from the original six items to 15 to form the Expanded Ecological Values score (Ecological Values Scale). 15-item EEV Score Number of scale items 6 15 Lowest possible score 6 15 Highest possible score Anti-ecological Mid-ecological Pro-ecological This survey is administered by Statistics New Zealand every quarter and measures average levels of employment and unemployment and nonparticipation in the labour force and any changes that occur during the timeframe (Statistics New Zealand, 2015). The target population is workingage population of New Zealand and responses are collected from 15,000 households, equating to about 30,000 individuals aged 15 and over. a In 2014 a sample of 20,165 was selected with a 76 per cent response rate. A rotating panel survey method was used and households are selected using a multi-stage clustered design. There are two stages of clustering; in the first stage a random sample is selected from designated area (primary sampling unit) and in the second stage sample of households is selected from each PSU. Two separate questionnaires (personal and household) were given out to each household and the first interview was conducted face-to-face using computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). Second interviews were conducted over the telephone using CATI. The overall weighting of each household was accomplished over several stages and was based on PSU and household selection size as well as a non-response adjustment and calibration. These adjustments make the sample representative of the New Zealand population. Imputation for missing data from the questionnaire was attributed for sex, age and full-time employment variables only. Sampling errors were calculated using 95 per cent confidence intervals each quarter for employed, unemployed and not in the labour force estimates. P a g e 155

166 Marco Regional Waikato Perception Survey The Marco Regional Waikato Perception Survey (hereafter known as the MARCO Survey) is a three-yearly survey commissioned by the Waikato Regional Council, monitoring and reporting on community outcomes across the region. In the 2013 survey, 713 respondents were interviewed by telephone using a Hamilton-based research company, DigiPoll Ltd, to conduct the interviews (Waikato Regional Council, 2013). Respondents were selected using DigiPoll s random sampling digit sampling system to ensure a random sample of the population who have land-line telephones were selected. Respondents had to be aged 18 years and over. The survey was administered using a Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) questionnaire. This questionnaire was developed by MARCO in consultation with the participating councils. Respondents were chosen who lived within the boundary of the Waikato region which includes parts of Rotorua and Taupo districts as well as Thames- Coromandel, Hauraki, Waikato, Hamilton City, Matamata-Piako, Waipa, South Waikato, Otorohanga and Waitomo. Of the 11 councils, six opted to financially participate (Hamilton City, Thames-Coromandel, Waikato, Matamata-Piako, South Waikato and Waipa) and these councils were allocated a minimum of 70 interviews each with weighting applied (Waikato Regional Council). Weighting was calculated by age and gender within the Waikato Region and then weighted by the Council population to ensure the sample was representative. Those councils who did not participate were allocated interviews based on the number generated from using a random survey (e.g., six for Rotorua). The survey is subject to a number of limitations. The small number of interviews, particularly for non-financially contributing councils, means results and analysis should be interpreted with caution. The margin of error for the entire sample size of 713 at 95 per cent confidence interval was calculated to be +/-3.6 per cent. However, the sampling error for sample size by district increases significantly as shown: Sample Size Maximum Margin of Error 95% Confidence 713 ± ± ± ± ± 32.7 For the districts of Waitomo and Otorohanga where 15 and 16 interviews respectively were conducted, the sampling error is much greater. A sample of nine people, 50 per cent of whom agree with a statement is calculated from a sample size of 100. At the 95 per cent confidence interval between 17.3 per cent and 82.7 per cent would agree with that statement. P a g e 156

167 New Zealand General Social Survey The New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS) provides information on the well-being of New Zealanders aged 15 years and over and is carried out every two years by Statistics New Zealand. It covers a broad range of social and economic outcomes and shows how well-being varies across different population groups (Statistics New Zealand, 2013a). Respondents are selected at random using a multistage sample design and in 2014, 8,795 individuals answered the NZGSS questionnaire achieving a response rate of 80.3 per cent. Imputation for non-response is also used in the NZGSS but only for the variables age, income and labour force status with all other variables coded as non-response. Sampling errors in the 2012 NZGSS were high; for 10,000 people relative sampling errors were estimated to be 43.9 per cent. In the 2014 NZGSS Statistics New Zealand advised that sampling errors of 30 to 49.9 per cent should be treated with caution and over 50 per cent to be considered as unreliable. Consequently, results and analysis should to be treated with caution. New Zealand Health Survey The New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS) is administered annually by the Ministry of Health and for the 2014/15 NZHS, 13,497 adults and 4,754 children participated (Ministry of Health, 2015). The response rate for 2014/15 was 79 per cent for adults and 83 per cent for children. The NZHS used a multi-stage, stratified, probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling design to select participants. Adjustments were made for nonresponses by participants to questions in the survey in the final weighting so that the non-response did not lead to an under-estimation for totals. Estimation and calibration weighting were also applied to data to ensure estimates are representative of the total population as well as calibrated weighting. A weight is calculated for every respondent, and these weights are used in calculating estimates of population totals (counts), averages and proportions. Typically, members of groups that have a lower chance of selection are assigned a higher weight, so that these groups are not underrepresented in estimates. Calibration weights correct for any discrepancies between the sample and the census population to compensate for non-response and improving estimates. Errors include under or over-estimation of some indicators due to self-reporting, however indicators about body size (such as obesity) will be more reliable as height and weight measurements were taken by trained interviewers (Ministry of Health, 2015). Sampling errors calculated in the NZHS were fairly low as they were generated for each result rather than for the sample as a whole; for example, for total obesity the error was ±1.2. P a g e 157

168 Appendix Figure 1 Fatality rates in motor vehicle crashes as a proportion (per 100,000) of the total population; OECD countries Page 158

169 Appendix Figure 2 Income inequality using the Gini coefficient, OECD countries; 2014 or latest available year Page 159

170 Appendix Figure 3 Annual unemployment rate for year population, OECD countries, 2014 Page 160