2014 Year-end Update ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

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1 2014 Year-end Update ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

2 ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. ESCAP provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports Governments of countries in the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region s unique socio-economic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP office is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit the ESCAP website at for further information. *The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members. This publication was prepared by the Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division of ESCAP. For further information on publications in this series, please address your enquiries to: Director Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) United Nations Building Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200, Thailand Tel: (662) Fax: (662) , escap-mpdd@un.org Website:

3 I 2014 Year-end Update Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific

4 II ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE United Nations publication Copyright United Nations 2015 All rights reserved Printed in Bangkok ST/ESCAP/2705 January 2015 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Bibliographical and other references have, wherever possible, been verified. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. References to dollars ($) denote United States dollars unless otherwise indicated. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this publication for sale or other commercial purposes, including publicity and advertising, is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright holder. Applications for such permission, with a statement of purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division at escap-mpdd@un.org.

5 III KEY MESSAGES Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to rise from 5.6% in 2014 to 5.8% in 2015, driven by better performance in a number of major developing economies. Inflation is likely to remain relatively subdued in 2015, falling to 3.5% from 3.9% in the previous year. A number of major economies, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Korea and Thailand are projected to post improved growth. Prospects for some of these economies will be aided by the progress in implementing structural reform programmes in 2015, which are expected to improve the domestic business environment. Exporting economies will continue to be adversely affected by slow growth in some developed economies, although accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will support growth. The Russian Federation will face particular challenges due to the imposition of economic sanctions, while the Islamic Republic of Iran will benefit from the easing of sanctions imposed against it. Despite a decent economic performance and outlook, the region faces a number of risks and challenges. Infrastructure deficits and lack of availability of decent jobs are the main domestic structural concerns which are impeding the supply potential of economies. Likely capital volatility in 2015 stemming from monetary policies of developed economies may affect macroeconomic stability and investment in the region. o ESCAP analysis indicates that the impact may negatively affect GDP growth of some countries in the region by up to 0.7 percentage points. The steep decline in oil prices will have varying impacts on balance of payments, inflation and fiscal space of countries. o ESCAP analysis indicates that a further $10 fall in oil prices in 2015 could increase GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage points in some regional economies. The Year-end Update offers three key policy recommendations for managing the challenges the region may face in They are as follows: Address domestic structural weaknesses through measures to increase infrastructure financing and labour market reforms to promote decent jobs. Use a variety of measures to tackle capital volatility resulting from the monetary policies of developed economies. They should include ensuring good macroeconomic fundamentals, judicious foreign exchange intervention, and use of macroprudential policies to encourage entry of long-term capital. Remove fuel subsidies during the window of opportunity presented by lower oil prices. As a result, macroeconomic fundamentals will improve, with the impact on consumers likely to be less severe than if this step had been taken prior to the steep decline in oil prices.

6 IV ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2014 Year-end Update analyses challenges for the region since the release of the Survey 2014 in August and provides recommendations on appropriate responses for policy-makers. This report was prepared under the overall direction and guidance of Shamshad Akhtar, Under- Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), and under the substantive direction of Aynul Hasan, Officer-in-Charge, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division. The core team led by Muhammad Hussain Malik (Chief, Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section) included Shuvojit Banerjee, Sudip Ranjan Basu, Steve Loris Gui-Diby, Hamza Ali Malik and Vatcharin Sirimaneetham. Other contributors from the Division were Daniel Jeongdae Lee, Oliver Paddison and Marin Yari. ESCAP staff who provided comments included: Yejin Ha, ESCAP Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia; Matthew Hammill, ESCAP Subregional Office for South and South-West Asia; Elvira Mynbayeva, ESCAP Subregional Office for North and Central Asia; and Sanjesh Naidu, ESCAP Subregional Office for the Pacific. Achara Jantarasaengaram, Pannipa Ongwisedpaiboon and Kiatkanid Pongpanich provided research assistance. Sutinee Yeamkitpibul proofread the manuscript and undertook all administrative processing necessary for the issuance and launch of the publication. Alan Cooper of the Editorial Unit of ESCAP edited the manuscript. The graphic design and layout was created by Natthakhom Jira, and printing was provided by Advanced Printing Service, Thailand. Francyne Harrigan of the Strategic Communications and Advocacy Section coordinated the launch and dissemination of the report.

7 V CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV ABBREVIATIONS VII INTRODUCTION Outlook and performance Growth and inflation Macroeconomic and reform policies Trade and financial markets Risks and challenges Domestic structural concerns Infrastructure Labour Global monetary policy developments Oil price developments Policy considerations and suggestions Addressing domestic structural weaknesses Infrastructure Labour Policies to manage capital volatility An opportune time to reduce fuel subsidies BOXES Box 1. Progress of reform agenda in China in the second half of Box 2. Potential impact of United States increase in interest rates on Asia-Pacific economies Box 3. Potential impact of a drop in oil prices on Asia-Pacific economies

8 VI ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE FIGURES Figure 1. Developing Asia-Pacific and major developed economies growth, , and growth in ESCAP subregions, Figure 2. Real GDP growth in selected East and North-East Asian economies, Figure 3. Contributions of consumption and investment to GDP growth in selected developing Asia-Pacific economies, Figure 4. Real GDP growth in selected South and South-West Asian economies, Figure 5. Real GDP growth in selected South-East Asian economies, Figure 6. Real GDP growth in selected North and Central Asian economies, Figure 7. Real GDP growth in selected Pacific island developing economies, Figure 8. Consumer price inflation and real interest rates in selected developing Asia-Pacific economies, Figure 9. Public debt and fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP, Figure 10. Real GDP growth of major developed economies, Figure 11. Growth in merchandise exports in selected developing Asia-Pacific economies, year-on-year, Figure 12. Exchange rate indices in selected developing Asia-Pacific economies, Figure 13. Unemployment rates in selected Asia-Pacific economies, Figure 14. Oil production in Middle East and North America, and Brent crude spot price, , dollars per barrel Figure 15. Vulnerability yardstick (short-term foreign exchange commitments as a percentage of foreign reserves) in selected Asia-Pacific economies, latest available data TABLE Table 1. Selected economies of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation,

9 VII ABBREVIATIONS ADB AEC AIIB APEC ASEAN CIS ESCAP FTAAP GDP GST IEA MOU PPPs SMEs SOE TFA TPP WTO Asian Development Bank ASEAN Economic Community Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Association of Southeast Asian Nations Collective Investment Scheme Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific gross domestic product goods and services tax International Energy Agency memorandum of understanding public-private partnerships small and medium-sized enterprises state-owned enterprise Trade Facilitation Agreement Trans-Pacific Partnership World Trade Organization

10 INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION Asia and the Pacific is forecast to post a moderate increase in growth to 5.8% in 2015 from 5.6% in This will be driven by improved growth in a range of developing economies in the region, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Korea and Thailand. Moreover, a number of economies, such as India and Indonesia, are expected to make progress in carrying out much-needed structural reforms, which is likely to boost their performance. The ongoing rebalancing programme of China is also expected to have important implications on trade and investment in the region. The Russian Federation will face challenges from economic sanctions imposed in 2014 while the Islamic Republic of Iran will benefit from easing of sanctions imposed against it. Many exporting economies will exhibit relatively unchanged growth at moderate levels, with a positive factor being the seemingly sustained recovery in the United States although slow growth in the eurozone and Japan will continue to pose a challenge. Inflation in the region is forecast to decrease to 3.5% in 2015 from 3.9% in Many economies will be able to maintain accommodative monetary policies to support growth due to moderate or decreasing inflation. In 2014, monetary policy remained largely unchanged across the region, with interest rates being maintained at tight or accommodative levels depending on country circumstances. Countries with high inflation or capital outflow pressures, such as Indonesia and the Russian Federation, pursued tight monetary policy while those with low inflation and constrained demand, such as China, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Viet Nam followed an accommodative monetary policy stance. In the wake of recent volatility in asset markets and exchange rates, some economies, such as the Russian Federation, used foreign exchange reserves to manage the impact of capital outflows and the extent of currency depreciations. Despite a fairly positive outlook, the region faces a number of risks and challenges. These include the following: domestic structural concerns; likely impact of capital volatility; and the varying implications of falling oil prices. Two key crosscutting domestic structural challenges are affecting the supply capacity of economies infrastructure deficits and labour market imperfections. Lack of infrastructure has held back growth in manufacturing and trade across the region. Failure to boost the rate of human capital formation through education and skills training that meets the needs of higher value-added business sectors has led to insufficient creation of decent jobs. A short-term challenge to macroeconomic stability is the impact of monetary policies of developed economies on capital markets in the region, particularly the ongoing monetary policy normalization being undertaken by the United States of America. Another one is the dramatic recent fall in oil prices, which is likely to have significant macroeconomic policy implications, both positive and negative, depending on the degree of commodity-dependence of an economy. Addressing structural challenges will involve a mix of domestic and regional policies. At the domestic level, the contribution of the private sector to infrastructure development can be significantly increased through growth in capital markets and better use of public-private partnerships (PPPs). At the regional level, recent developments in establishing regional financial intermediation institutions for infrastructure development are positive steps which should be built upon. Labour market programmes should include active labour market policies aimed at improving job quality, enhancing skills and boosting productivity and wages. Appropriate macroeconomic policies will help to manage developments arising from capital market volatility and falling oil prices. Economies can reduce the instability caused by excessive volatility in capital flows by ensuring that macroeconomic fundamentals are sound through appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, macroprudential measures can serve as an important element in encouraging the entry of longer-term portfolio capital. Finally, falling oil prices offer a window of opportunity for governments to permanently decrease fuel subsidies while ensuring less impact in the short-term for prices and livelihoods of the poor. The following sections consider the region s performance, prospects and challenges since the publication of the Economic and Social Survey 2014 and then offer a number of policy recommendations. The first section begins with a discussion of the macroeconomic outlook for the region in It contains the latest forecasts for growth and inflation,

11 2 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE a discussion of recent domestic macroeconomic and reform policies of governments, and an update of trade and capital market developments. The next section considers some risks and challenges to the outlook, namely domestic structural concerns in terms of infrastructure and labour market weaknesses, risks from global monetary policy developments and risks and opportunities from the dramatic fall in oil prices in recent months. The final section offers a number of policy considerations and suggestions with respect to the challenges highlighted earlier. Specifically, they relate to addressing domestic structural weaknesses to increase the supply capacity of economies, considering a range of policies to manage capital volatility, and availing of the opportunity offered by lower oil prices to further reduce fuel subsidies in order to strengthen fiscal positions. 1. Outlook and performance 1.1. Growth and inflation Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase to 5.8% in 2015 from an estimated 5.6% in 2014 (see figure 1). The overall economic performance of the region will continue to far outstrip growth in major developed economies of the world in 2015 and thus continue to drive the global recovery. With the exception of North and Central Asia, all the subregions are expected to experience increased growth. This positive outlook is based on expected improved economic conditions in a number of major developing economies, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Korea and Thailand (see table 1). Some of these economies are undertaking reform programmes under new administrations. These reform programmes are expected to generate additional positive results in Meanwhile, the outlook for exporting economies remains less upbeat due to slow growth in the eurozone and Japan, as well as in China, which is the major source of intraregional final demand. Moreover, despite better growth prospects, many developing economies in the region will continue to face structural constraints. These constraints are preventing the domestic sector from playing an even greater role in supporting growth. Of particular concern are barriers to infrastructure development and labour market reform, which have led to supply constraints. Figure 1. Developing Asia-Pacific and major developed economies growth, , and growth in ESCAP subregions, Real GDP growth (percentage) Pre-crisis Developing Asia-Pacific economies Crisis Post-crisis Forecast Major developed economies East and North-East Asia North and Central Asia Pacific island developing economies South and South-West Asia South-East Asia Developed ESCAP economies Real GDP growth (percentage) Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014 (Sales No. E.14.II.C.2). Available from IMF, World Economic Outlook database; ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2014 (Manila, 2014); CEIC Data. Available from and web site of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Notes: Forecasts are as of 5 January 2015; Major developed economies comprises 36 economies including the United States and the 18 economies of the eurozone.

12 Growth and inflation 3 Table 1. Selected economies of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation, Percentage Average a Real GDP growth pre-crisis growth b 2015 c b 2015 c East and North-East Asia d,e East and North-East Asia (excluding Japan) d,e China Democratic People s Republic of Korea Hong Kong, China Japan Macao, China Mongolia Republic of Korea North and Central Asia d North and Central Asia (excluding Russian Federation) d Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan d,e Pacific Pacific island developing economies d Cook Islands Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Developed countries (Australia and New Zealand) Australia New Zealand South and South-West Asia d,f Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey South-East Asia d,f Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao People s Democratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam Memorandum items: Developing ESCAP economies (excluding North and Central Asia) Developing ESCAP economies (including North and Central Asia) Least developed countries g Landlocked developed countries Small island developing States Developed ESCAP economies Total ESCAP Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, Sales No. E.14.II.C.2. Available from IMF, International Financial Statistics databases. Available from ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2014 (Manila, 2014) and Pacific Economic Monitor (December 2014); CEIC Data. Available from and web site of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Notes: a Changes in the consumer price index. b Estimates. c Forecasts (as of 5 January 2015). d GDP figures at market prices in United States dollars in 2010 (at 2005 prices) are used as weights to calculate the regional and subregional aggregates. e Forecasts for 2015 are available for selected economies. f The estimates and forecasts for countries relate to fiscal years defined as follows: 2015 refers to fiscal year spanning 1 April 2015 to 31 March 2016 in India and Myanmar; 21 March 2015 to 20 March 2016 in Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran; 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015 in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan; and 16 July 2014 to 15 July 2015 in Nepal. g Samoa is excluded from the calculation from 2014 onwards due to its graduation from the least developed countries category.

13 4 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE Inflation is forecast to remain subdued in the region as a whole but vary significantly among economies as a result of particular circumstances. Inflation in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to fall to 3.5% in 2015 from 3.9% in the previous year. As a majority of the economies in Asia and the Pacific are net oil importers, the decline in oil prices is expected to restrain inflationary pressures in the region as a whole. This, however, will not be the case for the oil-exporting economies, such as the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Reduced oil exports have and will continue to put downward pressure on their respective currencies, which in turn could result in imported inflation. Economies in South and South-West Asia will continue to experience the highest level of inflation in the region, particularly due to high domestic demand relative to constrained supply. However, encouragingly the level of inflation is expected to decrease from 8.3% in 2014 to 7.2% in 2015, the lowest rate in four years in the subregion, led by decreases in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Inflation in South-East Asia and East and North-East Asia is forecast to be generally subdued in line with relatively weak demand for products from exporting economies. Growth in East and North-East Asia is expected to increase slightly to 4% in 2015 from 3.5% in 2014 (see figure 2). This is due to a projected increase in growth in Japan to 1.5% in 2015 from 0.5% in the previous year. Further economic gains in Japan will be challenging in the absence of fresh policy measures. Following the enactment of monetary and fiscal stimulus policies in 2013, the country initially witnessed a boost in growth, but the momentum steadily decreased throughout the year. In the second quarter of 2014, the Japanese economy contracted sharply due to a hike in the consumption tax in April from 5% to 8%. The slowdown continued in the third quarter. Further pressure on growth may emanate from another proposed hike in the consumption tax, although the Government pledged to delay the increase by one year following a renewed mandate gained in the elections that were held in December In response to the current slowdown, the central bank has reinforced its policy of quantitative easing, raising its annual target in October 2014 to 80 trillion yen ($673 billion) annually from the previous target of trillion yen, with the objective of achieving an inflation rate of 2% by The country s quantitative easing programme is now 80% of the size, at its peak, of the last quantitative easing programme of the United States. The Government is also expected to renew its focus on a host of structural reforms after its December 2014 election victory under the socalled third arrow of the Abenomics reform programme. With the exclusion of Japan, developing countries in East and North-East Asia are expected to experience a slight overall economic slowdown; from 6.3% in 2014 to 6.2% in This is largely due to the ongoing deceleration in China. Growth in China is forecast to slow moderately to 7% in 2015 from 7.3% in 2014 during its rebalancing programme. Growth Figure 2. Real GDP growth in selected East and North-East Asian economies, Percentage East and North East Asia Republic of Korea Japan China Hong Kong, China Source: Based on Table 1. Note: Figures for 2014 are estimates while figures for 2015 are forecasts. 1 Bank of Japan, Statement on monetary policy, 7 October Available from

14 Growth and inflation 5 in the third quarter of 2014 stood at a five-year low of 7.3% year-on-year. An analysis of the components of domestic demand indicates that investment growth declined slightly more than that of consumption, which offers some support to the rebalancing efforts (see figure 3). A combination of external and domestic factors is behind the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Externally, China, in common with other regional exporters, is being affected by the slow recovery in major developed countries. To compensate for this, the Government is reluctant to launch large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus as it did at the start of the financial crisis. This is due to the Government being aware that the economy is unbalanced, with an excessive role of investment which has led to unprofitable projects. Reluctance to stimulate investment, while commendable in that it ensures long-term sustainability of growth, is likely to imply a trend of slower growth from an historical performance in coming years. The economic outlook for the Republic of Korea is marked by moderately recovering domestic demand supported by expansionary policies. Growth is forecast to increase to 3.8% in 2015 from 3.4% in For the 2015 fiscal year, the Government has introduced the most expansionary budget since 2009, with large increases in welfare spending. Backed by such policy support, economic growth in 2015 is expected to improve further. Private consumption is projected to recover moderately in line with an increase in consumer sentiment after the fatal ferry accident in April 2014, but high household debt will continue to act as a constraint. Investment has recently increased in line with improving exports, but remains constrained by ample unused capacity throughout the manufacturing sector. The Government is of the view that rising corporate wealth among large firms is not being adequately transferred to households through wages, dividends or new job-creating investments. South and South-West Asia is set to enjoy economic growth of 5.3% in 2015, a four-year high (see figure 4). The positive outlook is mainly led by an increase in growth in India. The economy of India is likely to expand by 6.4% in 2015 as compared to 5.5% in Positive expectations regarding the extent of reforms to be proposed and implemented by the new Government boosted consumer and business confidence in the latter part of 2014, resulting in increased economic growth. However, the country experienced a negative contribution of investment to growth in the third quarter of 2014, which indicates the continuing pressing challenge of improving the business climate. Consumer price inflation in November 2014 fell to its lowest level since a new CPI index began being tracked in January It declined to 4.4% year-on-year, comfortably below the target of the central bank for that year of 8% and Figure 3. Contributions of consumption and investment to GDP growth in selected developing Asia- Pacific economies, Percentage Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 China 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 India Republic of Korea Consumption Investment GDP 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2012Q1 Russian Federation 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 20 Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Percentage 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Sources: ESCAP, based on CEIC Data. Available from ceicdata.com (accessed 5 January 2015); and national sources. Note: GDP data is calculated as year-on-year percentage change.

15 6 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE Figure 4. Real GDP growth in selected South and South-West Asian economies, Percentage South and South West Asia India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan Source: Based on Table 1. Note: Figures for 2014 are estimates while figures for 2015 are forecasts. even approaching the 2016 target of 6%. It is therefore likely that monetary policy can be somewhat eased in the near future if the trend of lower inflation stays intact. Such a move would further support growth. Improved growth is also projected for Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, supported by steady remittances, moderating price pressures, accommodative fiscal policy, and the economic recovery in the United States which remains the key export market for many countries in the subregion. Nonetheless, Pakistan s macroeconomic fundamentals remain fragile due to poor security conditions, political instability and low fixed investment constrained by a shortage of domestic savings. Growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran is forecast to continue to recover, aided by the easing of severe international economic sanctions that had contributed to the recession recorded during Economic growth for South-East Asia in 2015 is expected to be relatively strong for many economies, though challenges remain. Growth for the subregion is forecast to increase to 5% in 2015 from 4.3% in 2014 (see figure 5). The onset of the ASEAN Economic Community will further improve the business environment and contribute to growth performance across the subregion. The outlook for the largest economy in the subregion, Indonesia, is higher growth of 5.6% in 2015 compared with 5.2% in 2014, subject to some uncertainty stemming from challenges faced by the new Government in undertaking a comprehensive reform programme. A decline in investment as well as in exports contributed to a fall in the growth rate in the third quarter of 2014 to its lowest level in five years. The economy has been expanding at a lower rate in recent years mostly due to supply-side constraints. These constraints have contributed to increasing inflation, which forced the central bank to respond by implementing a tight monetary policy. Hikes in interest rates have also been required to support the currency due to capital outflows as investors have become wary of the country s twin current account and budget deficits. In an effort to restore fiscal balance, the Government reduced fuel subsidies in November 2014 and eliminated gasoline subsidies in January The currency may remain under pressure in coming months as the ongoing process of United States normalization of monetary policy leads to more capital outflows from the region. This, in turn, will require that the country maintain its relatively high interest rates. The economy of Malaysia is set for another year of robust growth in 2015 at 5.2%, driven by private consumption, investment and exports, although falling oil prices in recent months have put pressure on exports and the government budget. This forecast reflects some moderation of growth from 2014 due to the introduction of a goods and services tax, higher inflation and a tighter monetary stance. Nevertheless, the moderating effect on domestic demand of these policies is expected to be offset by an improvement in exports, particularly for electronics. Private

16 Growth and inflation 7 Figure 5. Real GDP growth in selected South-East Asian economies, Percentage South East Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Source: Based on Table 1. Note: Figures for 2014 are estimates while figures for 2015 are forecasts. consumption will continue to benefit from favourable labour market conditions and investment from the Economic Transformation Programme, which has established a pipeline of infrastructure and industry projects since its launch in The economic outlook for the Philippines also remains robust. In 2015, growth is expected to reach or exceed 6% for the fourth consecutive year, propelled by private consumption and a revival in investment in recent years. In 2014, private consumption continued to drive the economy, benefiting from employment growth in services and construction as well as from steady overseas workers remittances. Fixed investment in machinery and durable equipment continued to increase strongly, although investment as a share of GDP remains relatively low at about 20%. Public spending, after slowing in 2014 following legislative challenges, is expected to accelerate again and support growth. Post-typhoon reconstruction activities will also pick up. With inflation rising rapidly in 2014, the central bank has steadily tightened its monetary stance. Prices are projected to be more stable in 2015 and not act as a drag to domestic demand. Keeping up the recent revival in manufacturing activities, including through increased public infrastructure outlays and effective industry roadmaps, will be important for sustained, job-creating economic growth in the coming years. The outlook for growth in Thailand is somewhat more positive than in recent years although longer-term sustainability of the performance will be based on the evolution of politics and economic policy. Growth is forecast to increase to 3.9% in 2015 from the sharp slowdown to 0.8% in Political uncertainty has led to the drop in the contribution of investment to growth since mid The assumption of power of a military government in mid-2014 has increased consumer and investor confidence in the short-term as it has brought a halt to an extended period of political instability. The main economic action of the government in 2014 has been to resume government budgetary spending and planning for large infrastructure spending. The growth forecast for 2015 somewhat reflects this increased economic activity. However, it is also due to the base effect of very low growth in The stated aim of the Government is to move towards a return to democracy, however uncertainty during this process has the potential to exert renewed pressure on consumer and investor confidence in coming months. The economic outlook for Viet Nam faces some challenges as problems in the banking sector are constraining domestic demand. Growth in 2015 is forecast to increase slightly to 6% from 5.8% in Non-performing loans as a percentage of total lending were reported to have increased in the first half of 2014, after declining throughout 2013 while credit growth remained weak in 2014 despite the lowering of interest rates by the central bank. After peaking at double-digits in 2011, inflation has

17 8 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE declined significantly, largely a reflection of the weak domestic sector of the economy. On the positive side, exports have been strong despite disruptions in factory production and tourism in mid-year following a maritime territorial dispute with China. Under the Government s plan to give the private sector a greater role in steering the economy, the reform of state-owned enterprises is also moving forward. Such reforms could help enhance the quality of investment in coming years. Following recent reforms, economic growth in Myanmar stood at 8.5%, supported by new investments and natural gas exports. It is expected to sustain this rapid pace in The economies of Cambodia, the Lao People s Democratic Republic and Timor-Leste are expected to continue to expand at a robust pace of between 7% and 8% in Human resource development and economic diversification, however, are key challenges for these economies in ensuring sustainable growth. Growth in North and Central Asia is expected to deteriorate in 2015 due to a continued slowdown in the Russian Federation, the largest economy in the subregion. Overall, the subregion is forecast to grow by 0.2% in 2015 after growing by 1% in 2014 (see figure 6). The outlook for the Russian Federation is difficult in the near-term and subject to considerable uncertainty, with a contraction of 0.8% forecast in The economy has been slowing in recent years. Growth in 2013 was already far lower at 1.3% than the levels of about 4% reached between 2010 and The slowdown was compounded in 2014 by the effects of geopolitical instability and sanctions by the European Union and United States, causing the rouble to tumble by more than 40% against the dollar in The sanctions have made it difficult for local banks to refinance themselves and therefore sustain normal domestic banking operations. The weak rouble has affected the corporate sector by raising the cost of foreign debt. Beyond these immediate concerns, the economy remains affected by longer-term challenges. Its lack of diversification is a major concern, with excessive dependence on oil and gas exports. Non-oil investment, both foreign and domestic, in the country remains below potential due to concerns about the investment climate, while productivity growth in the economy has also been stagnant. The contribution of investment to growth has been negative since The economy of Kazakhstan is set to expand by 4.8% in 2015, slightly higher than in Growth will be sustained by government expenditure, and sizeable fiscal stimulus packages provided to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and agroindustry. Moreover, the impact of the 2014 devaluation of the tenge is expected to end and this will contribute to an increase in household consumption. In the other net energy-exporting countries of the subregion, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, new hydrocarbon infrastructures, which are expected to Figure 6. Real GDP growth in selected North and Central Asian economies, Percentage North and Central Asia Kazakhstan Russian Federation Uzbekistan Source: Based on Table 1. Note: Figures for 2014 are estimates while figures for 2015 are forecasts.

18 Growth and inflation 9 be in operation in 2015, will significantly contribute to the expansion of their economies. Slightly higher economic growth in Uzbekistan will be mainly driven by government expenditure. The economy of Georgia will continue to benefit from fiscal stimulus, while the economic performances of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are highly dependent on the economic situation in the Russian Federation and its repercussions on remittances and exports. Growth in the Pacific island developing economies is forecast to increase dramatically in 2015, led by Papua New Guinea. The subregion is expected to expand by 10.1% compared to 5.9% in Growth in Papua New Guinea is forecast to increase to 15.5% (see figure 7) from 8.4% in 2014 due to the commencement of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export. The economy expanded above expectations in 2014 primarily on the back of early commencement of LNG production, combined with the Government s expansionary fiscal policy. The outlook for economic growth in the next few years remains broadly steady, with the mineral sector contributing to double-digit GDP growth. Government fiscal spending is expected to boost demand but the spending has also contributed to high import demand. High import demand has led to depreciation of the exchange rate and thus has caused inflationary pressures, with annual headline inflation for 2014 of 5.9%. In the immediate term, the Government faces the challenge of finding employment for local workers laid off from construction of the LNG projects. Growth in Fiji is forecast to be slightly lower in 2015 at 4% from an estimated 4.2% in In recent years, large infrastructure projects, as well as good performance in the sugar industry and the tourism sector have helped boost the economy. Consumption spending was supported by higher disposable incomes, while remittances and investment spending also remained firm. It is foreseen that growth in 2015 will be at a somewhat lower but sustainable pace, spurred by recent infrastructure development and the return to civilian rule following elections in September A key concern for policymakers is the need to boost job creation through further structural reforms to enhance the business environment. Figure 7. Real GDP growth in selected Pacific island developing economies, Percentage Pacific island developing economies Fiji Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Source: Based on Table 1. Note: Figures for 2014 are estimates while figures for 2015 are forecasts.

19 10 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: 2014 YEAR-END UPDATE 1.2. Macroeconomic and reform policies Monetary policy remained largely unchanged across the region in 2014, with interest rates being maintained at tight or accommodative levels depending on country circumstances. In countries with high inflation or capital outflow pressures, tight monetary policy was required in 2014 (see figure 8). This included countries in South and South-West Asia that experienced supply constraints and high domestic demand, as well as countries that additionally faced capital outflow pressures. Policy interest rates were raised in the Russian Federation, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, among others. The policy interest rate reached 17% in the Russian Federation after being hiked by 150 basis points in October and by 100 and 650 basis points in December. In Malaysia, the policy interest rate was raised in the middle of the year for the first time in three years, by 25 basis points to 3.25%. The Philippines raised its policy interest rate also for the first time in three years, by 25 basis points in July. It hiked the rate by an additional 25 basis points in September, to its current level of 4%. In addition to the rate hikes, the country increased its reserve requirements twice during the year. In both Malaysia and the Philippines, inflation had been edging up and real interest rates were entering negative territory. Also, Malaysia had experienced high household debt and in the Philippines, the banks exposure to the real estate sector had increased rapidly. Also of note, Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% in November following the Government s decision to cut fuel subsidies. As for other economies, however, overall demand remained below capacity and therefore inflation stayed at low levels and monetary policy remained accommodative. This included many export-led economies in East and North-East Asia and South- East Asia that had experienced relatively low external demand. Policy interest rates were lowered in China, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Viet Nam. In the first half of the year, Thailand cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2.25%, as the economy contracted and Viet Nam cut by 50 basis points to support growth. In the second half of the year, the Republic of Korea cut its policy interest rate by a total of 50 basis points to reach 2%, matching its record low in Figure 8. Consumer price inflation and real interest rates in selected developing Asia-Pacific economies, Inflation rates Low inflation countries High inflation countries Year on year percentage change Jan 12 Jun 12 Nov 12 Apr 13 Sep 13 Feb 14 Jul 14 Dec 14 Year-on-year percentage change Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 China Republic of Korea Singapore Thailand India Indonesia Pakistan Viet Nam Turkey

20 Macroeconomic and reform policies 11 Figure 8. continued Real interest rates 4 6 Percentage Jan 12 Jun 12 Nov 12 Apr 13 Sep 13 Feb 14 Jul 14 Dec 14 Percentage Jan 12 Jun 12 Nov 12 Apr 13 Sep 13 Feb 14 Jul 14 Dec 14 China Republic of Korea Singapore Thailand India Indonesia Pakistan Viet Nam Source: ESCAP, based on data from CEIC Data. Available from (accessed 5 January 2015). China attempted to manage slowing growth in 2014 through the use of a number of monetary stimulus policies. The Government initially took a cautious approach by not undertaking full-scale monetary stimulus through interest rate decreases even though monthly inflation rates fell to their lowest levels in nearly five years. Instead, it introduced targeted monetary stimulus measures with the intention of supporting growth in a limited manner while maintaining financial stability. Measures undertaken in 2014 included direct loans from the central bank to large state-owned lenders and easing of rules on mortgage lending. However, the Government indicated its growing concern about the growth performance by making its first interest rate cuts in two years in November 2014, lowering the deposit and lending rates by 25 and 40 basis points, respectively. This decision was supported by a continuing decrease in inflation, which reached 1.4% year-on-year in November Financial stability was a cross-cutting concern for governments in 2014, regardless of whether policy rates were raised or cut. Viet Nam made further progress in addressing poor asset quality of banks, including through mergers and acquisitions; the central bank is targeting a 50% reduction in the number of commercial banks in the next three years. In the Philippines, several measures were introduced to alleviate banks rapidly growing exposure to the property sector. Among them were developing a credit risk management framework, setting a real estate stress test, and expanding the definition of real estate exposures. In some economies, monetary policy was also used to ensure that adequate credit was channelled to the agricultural and rural sectors, as well as to small - and medium-sized enterprises. In 2014, China lowered the reserve requirements for rural banks and smaller financial institutions that cater to small businesses, and cut policy lending rates to small firms. A number of countries, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam, implemented some form of priority sector lending, through, for example, lending quotas or interest rate caps. 2 Fiscal policy also took divergent paths in 2014, with some countries, such as the Republic of Korea, shifting to a more pro-growth fiscal stance while others, such as Malaysia and India, moved towards consolidation. The Government of the Republic of Korea announced in July 2014 a stimulus package of $40 billion. Malaysia, on the other hand, affirmed its target to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2014 from 3.9% in 2013, while in India, the outgoing Government lowered the deficit to 4.5% in FY13 from 4.9% in FY12 (see figure 9). Still, across most countries, the general trend had been to implement more targeted measures, long-term investments and structural reforms. 2 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Priority sector lending in Asia, Asia Focus, September 2014.

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