EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY IN THAILAND

Transcription

1 EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY IN THAILAND Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon Department of Economics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London The 11 th IFA Global Conference on Ageing 28 May 1 June Prague, the Czech Republic International Federation on Ageing (IFA) A part of the CSEAS Project

2 Structure Introduction 2 Old-Age Employment Situation in Thailand 3 Determinant of Employment Decisions of the Elderly 4 Conclusion 2

3 Introduction Significance of the Research Increasing longevity: longer period of retirement Thai elderly people cannot rely on their own savings and invisible pensions: need family supports Urbanisation has deteriorated strength of family relationship: what happen to Thai elderly people? Possibility: a number of Thai elderly people have to be economically active for their own survival. Research aim: to study dynamic of employment behaviour of the elderly in Thailand Methodology Data Socio-Economic Survey (SES) Data, (National Statistical Office) Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (National Statistical Office) Secondary data from reliable sources Methodology Descriptive Analysis Econometric Analysis using a Probit regression model 3

4 Old-Age Dependency Ratio (% 65/15-64) Situation of Population Ageing in Thailand Old-age Dependency Ratio is on an upward trend: Thailand has the highest rate in the SEA region Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia LAOS Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam Remark: an old-age dependency ratio is defined as a ratio of population 65 per 100 population Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. 4

5 Summary of the Elderly in Thailand Share of the Elderly by Living Arrangements, Thailand, Share of the Elderly by employment situation, Thailand, In 2007, the majority are: Attaining primary education or less (91.78%) Female (56.27%) Household heads (59.87%) Married (60.68%) Able to go out without assistance (healthy, 87.08%) Not working (58.09%) Not living in a household with pension incomes (94.60%) Living in the Northeast (35.39%) Living with their children (60.39%) Living in three-generational households (36.92%) Average age of Thai elderly increased from (1990) to years. Remark: *excluding skipped generation households Source: author s own calculation from the SES data 5

6 Old-Age Employment Situation Labour Force Participation Rates, the World Regions, Region/Country 1 Age Group Men Women Men Women Men Women World Developed Countries Economies in Transition Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Thailand Source: United Nations (2007, p.61, Table IV.2), Development in an Ageing World; Author s own calculation from the ILO s data, accessed on 12 march The labour-force participation rates of Thai elderly persons are quite high; higher than the world average. Almost one-fifth of Thai females aged 65 and over were found in the workforce in The LFP rates of females are quite high comparatively to Asia, LAC, Economies in Transition and the World. Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand. The share of elderly in Thailand s labour force is on an upward trend; increasing from 3.7% to 7.0% during

7 Old-Age Employment Situation Situations of Old-Age Labour Force, Thailand, Trends: more females, more older elderly (65), better educated. The majority are self-employed (60.97% in 2006). More elderly people are recently found in the private sector Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand.

8 Old-Age Employment Situation Old-Age Employment Situations Thailand by Living Arrangements, Source: author s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 8

9 Percentage of Economically Active Elderly Person in Each Age Group (%) Old-Age Employment Situation The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand, by Living Arrangements and Age Group, Total Elderly (60) Total Elderly (65) and over Age Groups (Year) Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (excl. Skipped) Skipped Generation Households One-Generational Households All Living Arrangements Source: author s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 9

10 Old-Age Employment Situation Reasons for Remaining in the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, % 80% 60% % 20% % All Living Arrangements Three-or-More- Generational Households Two-Generational Households (exc Skipped) Skipped Generation Households One-Generational Households Still Healthy Looking after themselves/family Looking after their children Noone can replace the job Not retire yet Having debt Spend time Help child(ren)/ family members Others Source: author s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 10

11 Old-Age Employment Situation Reasons for Leaving the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, % 80% 60% % 20% % All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (exc Skipped) Skipped Generation Households 7.03 O ne-generational Households Household working/ looking after family members Spouse/Child(ren) do not allow to work Waiting for next season Too old Incapable for work with disability Illness Voluntary idle Looking or waiting for a job Pension official To rest Others Source: author s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data 11

12 Determinant of Old-Age Employment Variables Year I. Demographic Factors - Age *** *** *** *** *** (-11.14) (-14.41) (-18.38) (-17.17) (-22.15) - Secondary Education *** (-3.31) (-0.30) (-0.19) (-0.35) (-1.21) - Bachelor s Degree *** (0.10) (-1.16) (0.43) (-0.73) (-2.64) - Master s Degree or Higher ** (1.40) (-0.16) (-2.45) - Male 0.118*** 0.056* 0.113*** 0.075*** 0.165*** (2.67) (1.72) (4.19) (3.32) (8.83) - Household Head 0.177*** 0.262*** 0.188*** 0.273*** 0.228*** (3.37) (6.90) (7.11) (12.40) (12.23) - Married 0.191*** 0.220*** 0.173*** 0.177*** 0.156*** (4.81) (6.87) (7.13) (7.73) (8.42) - Able to go out by Themselves without Assistance 0.269*** (10.98) - Access to Medical Welfare (-0.40) (0.11) II. Economic Factors - Pensions (Yes) ** *** *** (-1.23) (-1.99) (-1.27) (-3.05) (-3.09) - Transfer Payments (Yes) (0.61) (-0.88) (0.58) (-1.31) - Poverty (Yes) ** *** (1.27) (2.50) (1.01) (2.67) (0.90) - Savings (Yes) (0.22) (-0.67) (0.60) (-0.21) (-0.73) Year Variables III. Household Characteristics - Central *** (0.61) (0.84) (1.19) (1.40) (3.78) - North *** (0.39) (-0.38) (0.81) (1.14) (3.53) - Northeast *** (-0.16) (0.90) (-0.36) (1.62) (3.25) - South 0.170* ** 0.127*** 0.187*** (1.84) (1.25) (1.97) (3.21) (4.91) - Rural * *** ** (-1.65) (0.02) (0.39) (-3.72) (-2.46) - Live in Three-or-More *** * Generational Household (-0.69) (-0.41) (-3.07) (-1.84) - Live in Two-Generational *** *** *** *** Household (-1.65) (-5.72) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-9.35) - Live in Skipped Generation 0.288*** 0.280*** 0.309*** 0.254*** 0.295*** Household (4.39) (5.92) (7.46) (7.63) (10.00) - Household Size *** *** *** *** *** (-10.76) (-9.73) (-13.61) (-15.37) (-22.38) - Household In the Agricultural 0.086** 0.114*** 0.102*** 0.430*** 0.386*** Sector (2.25) (3.57) (4.15) (20.47) (20.59) - Number of Recipients in *** *** *** Household (-4.96) (-7.05) (-7.50) (0.12) - Number of Earners in Household 0.431*** 0.493*** 0.465*** 0.438*** 0.494*** (15.17) (19.82) (23.57) (27.01) (34.02) Number of Observations 2,279 5,861 6,913 15,478 20,120 Wald Chi-Squared Probability > Chi-Squared *** *** *** *** *** Pseudo R-Squared Log Pseudo-Likelihood Source: author s own calculation from the SES data 12

13 Determinant of Old-Age Employment Significant Factors: Demographic Factors: age(-), male(), household head(), married(), healthy() Economic Factors: pensions(-), poverty() Household Characteristics: rural(-), agricultural(), household size(-), one-generational households() Key Findings: The elderly living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than those staying in other living arrangements. Implying: the presence of adult children is one of the key factors in the older persons decision to continue or to quit working. 13

14 Conclusions Conclusions The labour-force participation rates of the elderly have been increasing over these two decades. The majority of employed older persons are male, aged between 60-69, low-educated, married and self-employed. Elderly persons living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than those staying in other living arrangements. The main reason for remaining in the workforce is financial i.e. poverty and low family support. Another reason is that they are too healthy to retire. The key factor of labour-force withdrawal is health problems; they are too old to work. Policy Implications Although working could contribute to the country s economic development, elderly employment should be also considered in its social aspects. Ideally, older persons should continue working as long as they wish and as long as their ability and competency allow them to do. 14

15 Thank You Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon Department of Economics SOAS, University of London 15

16 Supporting Documents 16

17 Living Arrangements of the Elderly Share of the Elderly, by Living Arrangements and Regions of Residence, 1990 & The majority of elderly people in Bangkok live in two-generational households. Meanwhile, the majority of older persons in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households. Trend: more elderly people are found in one-generational households in every region. Skipped generational households are mostly found in the Northeast and North regions; an upward trend. The average size of household is decreasing in every region. This is because of a delay of marriage and changing value towards having children. 17 Source: author s own calculation from the 1990 and 2007 SES data

18 Factors affecting Family Relationship Key factors to decrease the importance of family: Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Migration Industrialisation - Family Productive Enterprise Universal Primary and Secondary Schooling Wage Employment of Individuals Cost of Homeproduced Goods Demand for Female Labour Per Capita Income Fertility - Child Survival Filial Piety - Parental Power Female - Labour Force Participations Joint/Stem Family - - Ability to Purchase Privacy/Care Availability of Caregivers Care of the Elderly Urbanisation - Housing Availability Migration Separation of the Generations Remarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors, - A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive. Source: Mason (1992), Figure 1 18

19 Regional Population Ageing in Thailand Shares of the Elderly and Old-Age Dependency Rations, Thailand, Region Whole Kingdom Bangkok Central (excl.bkk) North North-East South Share of the Elderly (%) Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%) Source: Author s own calculation from the Thailand s Population Projection provided by NESDB 19

20 Age Profiles of Household Savings Age Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007 household saving ratio household per capita income household household per capita per capita consumption exp enditure x100 income Source: Author s own calculation from the 2007 SES data provided by NSO 20

21 Household Saving Rate (%) Old-Age Poverty Share of the Poor Elderly (60), by Region, Thailand, Regions Total Elderly People (%) Share of Poor Elderly People to Total Elderly People (%) Whole Kingdom Bangkok Central (excl.bkk) North North-East South Source: Author s own calculation from the SES data Poor if household per capita income is below the poverty line The majority of poor elderly people are in the Northeast region. Rich households have positive savings; meanwhile, poor households are likely to face the problem of insufficient income. Share of Poor Elderly People, by Region, Thailand, Age Profiles of Household Savings, by Income Groups, Thailand, Age of Household Head 1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile 6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile Source: Author s own calculation from the SES data household saving rate household per capita income Source: Author s own calculation from the 2007 SES data household household per capita income per capita consumption exp enditure x100 21

22 Fertility in Thailand Source and Year Census Whole Kingdom Bangkok Central (exclude Bangkok) North Northeast South n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a SPC n/a Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during ; Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office; 6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision; 7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office. Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003). 22

23 Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Name The Standard Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Description The proportion of total elderly population to total working-age population The proportion of total elderly population to economically active working-age population The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active working-age population The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active population aged 15 and over The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to total working-age population 23

24 Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, Estimates Projections Source: Author s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, accessed on 1 March

25 Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, Estimates Projections Source: Author s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, accessed on 1 March

26 ('000) persons Natural Increases and Net Migration Estimates ( ) and Projections ( ), Thailand Thailand 1,200 1, Natural Increase Net Migration Remark: Source: Natural Increase = Births Deaths Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, accessed 8 March