Supporting Pension Schemes in Ireland by Deferring Annuitization and Providing State Annuities
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1 Supporting Pension Schemes in Ireland by Deferring Annuitization and Providing State Annuities Gerard Hughes and Jim Stewart School of Business Trinity College Dublin Presented to ENRSP Seminar Limiting Risk Through Guarantees and Regulation University of Muenster Muenster, Germany 7 October 2011
2 Overview of Presentation Effects of global financial crisis on Irish pension funds The State s proposals for supporting DC schemes Performance of managed pension funds Gainers & losers from deferment of annuity purchase The State s proposals for supporting DB schemes
3 Rates of Return for Pension Funds in 23 OECD Countries in 2008
4 Proposals for Supporting DC & DB Schemes DC schemes * Defer purchase of annuity for up to 2 years from December 2008 to December 2010
5 Effect of Different Retirement Dates on Rates of Return and Fund Value for Two Identical Individuals Invested in Average Managed Fund in Ten Years Prior to Retirement in 2007 & 2008 Performance Measure Retiring 1 October 2007 Retiring 1 October 2008 Difference Annual rate of return over 10 years 7.1% 3.2% 3.9% Value of average managed fund 273, ,000 83,000
6 Average Monthly Rates of Return on Irish Group Managed Funds, 31 October July 2011
7 Average Value of 190,000 Left Invested From 31 October 2008 to 31 December 2010
8 Group Managed Pension Funds Monitored by Rubicon Investment Consulting AIB Investment Managers AIPUT Managed Aviva Investors - Pension Balanced Managed Fund Canada Life/Setanta Series D Managed Fund Friends First/F&C Mixed Fund Irish Life Invest. Mgrs. - Pension Managed Fund (MR1) Kleinwort Benson Investors Pension Managed Fund Merrion Investment Managers Managed Fund Standard Life Investments Pension Managed Fund State Street Global Adv. Pensions Managed Fund (PMF) Zurich Life Balanced Fund
9 Allocation of Assets in Group Managed Funds in September 2005 & June 2011
10 Regression of Monthly Rates of Return for Best Managed Fund (Standard Life) on Average Rate of Return for All Investment Managers, January 2005 to July 2011
11 Regression of Monthly Rates of Return for Worst Managed Fund (AIB) on Average Rate of Return for All Investment Managers, January 2005 to July 2011
12 Herd Behaviour by Pension Fund Managers Herd behavior dominates the investment strategies of Irish fund managers As Scharfstein and Stein (AER, 1990) show it does in other countries in their model of herd behavior and investment. Such behavior may not be irrational for individual managers although it may be a fatal flaw in the functioning of financial markets (UNCTAD, Trade & Development Report, 2011) As Keynes (1936, p. 158) observed a long time ago Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.
13 Value of 190,000 Left Invested in the Best and Worst Performing Funds From 31 October 2008 to 31 December 2010
14 Annuity Purchased with a Lump Sum of 10,000 for a 65 Year Old Male, Pension Increases of 3% p. a., Guaranteed for 5 Years, Spouse s Pension on Death,
15 Who Gained or Lost from Two Years Deferment of Annuity Purchase Gained: Retirees with DC pension funds Exchequer NPV tax revenue from annuity purchase in October 2008 = 23,321 Exchequer NPV tax revenue from annuity purchase in December 2010 = 27,023 NPV gain to Exchequer = 3,702 Lost: No losers on this occasion. However, deferment involves risks to individuals owning DC funds and to taxpayers
16 Can Wide Variations in the Final Value of DC Pension Plans Be Avoided: The only way to avoid wide variations... is to provide a guarantee or some form of risk sharing.... Standard finance theory says that [private insurers] guaranteeing more than the riskless rate is impossible going forward. When the government is less averse to risk than other investors, it can guarantee rates of return higher than the riskless rate. (Source: Munnell, Golub-Sass, Kopcke, Webb What Does it Cost to Guarantee Returns, CRR Brief February 2009 No. 9-4).
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