Randall Gross / Development Economics. with The Walker Collaborative and the Memphis Area Association of Governments

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1 Randall Gross / Development Economics with The Walker Collaborative and the Memphis Area Association of Governments

2 Forecast the city s retail market potentials Identify opportunities for: Retail business recruitment and development Enhancing the community s lifestyle Consistent with the vision of residents and stakeholders Provide marketing concepts and strategies Provide a framework for planning To accommodate a broader mix of commercial uses That is informed by the market

3 Piperton Small, attractive exurban residential community 1,500 people (1.8%/yr) 610 households (2.6%/yr) Added only 57 Households since 2010 No Existing Town Center Good Regional Highway Access: 15,000 ADT at 72/196 8,000 ADT at 57/196 (but potential for growth). No Existing Highway Commercial Nodes Heavily Influenced by Collierville

4 US57/SR196 Bank of Fayette County, Cousins, Piperton Municipal, Sky Nails, commercial site 84 Lumber Rossville US57: Rossville Health Care, CSD, Municipal, Mystic, El Azteca, Trustmark Bank, Monica s Beauty, Get Gone Auto, Academy Gifts, Vacant Commercial, Gurlain s #3 Gas Rossville National Historic District: Cindy Krag? Catering, Wolf River Cafe Table 1. RETAIL BUSINESS SPACE BY CATEGORY, PIPERTON AREA, 2016 Category Number Sq. Feet Percent Convenience 1 4, % Shoppers Goods 1 34, % Eating & Drinking % Entertainment % Personal Services 1 2, % Vacant % TOTAL 3 41, % Sources: Fayette County Assessor, businesses, and Randall Gross / Development Economics. Limited Existing Retail 83% of retail space is in 84 Lumber

5 Trade Area (Map to be completed by MAAG) Sub-Area A: Piperton & Rossville Sub-Area B: Extends north towards US64, capturing traffic traveling north/south along I-269 Sub-Area C: Extends east (Highway 57) in Fayette County towards La Grange, rural areas with commutation west towards Collierville/Memphis Sub-Area D: Includes areas of Marshall County MS east along Highway 72, capturing rural commutation into Collierville/Memphis

6 Table 1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, RETAIL TRADE AREA, PIPERTON, Change Factor Number Percent Trade Area A Population 2,603 2, % Households 1,011 1, % HH Income $ 45,656 $ 77,632 $ 31, % Trade Area B Population 6,187 6, % Households 2,386 2, % HH Income $ 51,104 $ 65,960 $ 14, % Trade Area C Population 4,072 3,914 (158) -3.9% Households 1,504 1,486 (18) -1.2% HH Income $ 45,085 $ 45,325 $ % Trade Area D Population 6,699 6,527 (172) -2.6% Households 2,486 2,435 (51) -2.1% HH Income $ 33,530 $ 48,777 $ 15, % Note: Sources: Income expressed in constant 2016 dollars. Nielsen and Randall Gross / Development Economics.

7 Table 1. DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS, RETAIL TRADE AREA, PIPERTON, Change Factor Number Percent Trade Area A Population 2,791 2, % Households 1,136 1, % HH Income $ 77,632 $ 81,681 $ 4, % Trade Area B Population 6,268 6, % Households 2,456 2, % HH Income $ 65,960 $ 68,821 $ 2, % Trade Area C Population 3,914 3,878 (36) -0.9% Households 1,486 1, % HH Income $ 45,325 $ 47,359 $ 2, % Trade Area D Population 6,527 6,414 (113) -1.7% Households 2,435 2,400 (35) -1.4% HH Income $ 48,777 $ 51,432 $ 2, % Note: Sources: Income expressed in constant 2016 dollars. Nielsen & Randall Gross / Development Economics.

8 Trend: Solid Pop/HH Growth Rapid Income Growth Trade Area E (Collierville) Population 43,965 47,270 3, % Households 15,097 15, % HH Income $ 91,107 $ 102,919 $ 11, % Forecast: Increasing Pop/HH Growth Slowing Income Growth Trade Area E (Collierville) Population 47,270 49,681 2, % Households 15,981 16, % HH Income $ 102,919 $ 108,584 $ 5, %

9 Table 2 TPI FORECASTS, RETAIL TRADE AREAS, PIPERTON, TPI (000) Change Trade Area Amount Percent A $ 88,190 $ 99,733 $ 11, % B $ 161,998 $ 172,947 $ 10, % C $ 67,353 $ 70,565 $ 3, % D $ 118,772 $ 123,437 $ 4, % Total $ 436,313 $ 466,681 $ 30, % Notes: Source: Total personal income (TPI) expressed in thousands of constant 2013 dollars. Randall Gross / Development Economics. Trade Area Expenditure Potentials to Increase by $186.8 million by 2021.

10 Population: 47,000 (30x Piperton) 5.0 Million retail SF Poplar Avenue Corridor Carriage Crossing Lifestyle Center Downtown Collierville Collierville is the regional SE Memphis Area commercial hub Historic Downtowns and Commercial Corridors

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12 Table 1. SUMMARY RETAIL POTENTIAL BY PRIMARY USE PIPERTON, Gross Demand (SF) Existing Warranted Type of Good Uses Demand Convenience 28,532 31,786 4,930 26,856 Shoppers Goods 44,572 48,921 34,450 38,367 Eating/Drinking 7,912 8,894-8,894 Limited Service 3,165 3,540-3,540 Full Service 4,270 4,818-4,818 Entertainment 1,054 1,332-1,332 Personal Services 2,938 3,218 2,000 1,218 TOTAL 85,008 94,150 41,380 52,770 Existing Vacant - Net New Space 52,770 Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.

13 Table 1. WARRANTED HOUSEHOLD-GENERATED RETAIL DEMAND BY USE, PIPERTON, 2016 & 2021 Small Grocery/Specialty Food store Hardware/Garden Supply General Merchandise Store Automotive Supply Restaurants Gross Demand (Sq Ft) Existing Warranted Type of Good Uses Demand Convenience Grocery 9,195 10,262-10,262 Convenience 1,162 1,400-1,400 Specialty Food 956 1,035-1,035 Health/Pers Care 6,914 7,536-7,536 Gas/Convenience 6,641 7,543 4,930 2,613 Florist Liquor 2,330 2,543-2,543 Misc 1,050 1,155-1,155 Subtotal 28,532 31,786 4,930 26,856 Shoppers Goods Apparel 1,172 1,333-1,333 Accessory Jewelry Shoes Furniture 1,778 1,949-1,949 Home Furnishings 1,116 1,225-1,225 Appliances Hardware/Paint 3,166 3,449-3,449 Garden Supply 2,293 2,532-2,532 Home Centers 9,709 10,554 34,450 (23,896) Department Store 8,560 9,254-9,254 Non DS GM 8,083 8,951-8,951 Auto Dealers 1,361 1,476-1,476 Auto Supply 1,981 2,165-2,165 Electronics Books/Music Musical Instrumen Gift, Novelty, Svr Hobby/Toy/Game Luggage/Leather Office Supply/Sta 1,076 1,171-1,171 Sewing/Piece Sporting Goods Sub-Total 44,572 48,921 34,450 14,471 Dining & Entertainment Restaurant-FF 3,165 3,540-3,540 Restaurant-FS 4,270 4,818-4,818 Drinking Estab Entertainment 1,054 1,332-1,332 Sub-Total 8,966 10,226-10,226 Personal Svces 2,938 3,218 2,000 1,218 TOTAL 85,008 94,150 41,380 52,770 Existing Vacant - Net New Space 52,770 Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.

14 Table 2. Type of Business RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX, PIPERTON, 2021 Square Feet The Corner (72/269 Area) 8,300 Limited Service Restaurant(s) 3,500 Gas/Convenience 2,600 Auto Supply 2,200 Town Center (57/196 or 57/269) 44,000 Full Service Restaurant(s) 5,000 General Mdse Store (Fred's) 9,000 Home Furnishings 1,500 Grocery/Pharmacy 17,500 Garden/Hardware 5,800 Gifts/Toys 1,500 Office/Stationary 1,200 Wine/Beer/Specialty Food 2,500 Total 52,300

15 57/196 or 57/269 Node Primarily local- and Fayette/East commuter-serving Community-oriented +/-44,000 square feet Enhancing Quality of Life Convenience and Specialty Amenity for residential development Traditional Neighborhood Development Community Amenity Adds Value to Residential Communities

16 72/269 Area Highway-Commuter oriented Capturing Growing Mississippi commuter, business base 8,500-10,000 square feet Retail sales tax revenue High-quality, minimum impact on residential Capturing a Growing Commuter Market Generating Sales Tax Revenue

17 Focus on enhancing quality of life (QoL), an important factor for Piperton stakeholders Encourage development of Town Center for convenience and as an amenity for enhancing residents QoL as well as a source of tax revenue Consider attracting/encouraging traditional neighborhood development (TND) with town center component (fastest and easiest) Alternative is to establish site plan for node and recruit developers Brand & build on existing commercial node as identity for Piperton Town center should be located with public access and public space, as community amenity Encourage development of The Corner to capture commuter / highway-oriented trade and growing employment-based trade & tax revenue