Sault Ste. Marie Economic Development Corporation

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1 DRAFT: FEB. 22, 2016 Sault Ste. Marie Economic Development Corporation An Analysis of Sault Ste. Marie GDP / Employment by Sector 1 29

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Key Notes to Reader and Definitions II. Introduction o Overview of GDP, GDP by Employee, and Employment in All Sectors o Overview of GDP, GDP by Employee, and Employment in Goods Producing and Services Sectors Over Time a) Goods Producing Sector b) Services Sector III. Analysis of Eleven Sectors for Sault Ste. Marie as Predetermined by Conference Board of Canada (2014) a. Primary Utilities and NAICS Codes: 11, 21, 22 b. Construction NAICS Code: 23 c. Manufacturing NAICS Codes: d. Wholesale and Retail Trade NAICS Codes: 41, 44, 45 e. Transportation and Warehousing NAICS Codes: f. Information and Cultural Industries NAICS Code: 51 g. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate NAICS Codes: 52 & 53 h. Business Services NAICS Codes: 54, 55, 56 i. Non-Commercial Services NAICS Codes: 61 & 62 j. Personal Services NAICS Codes: 71, 72, 81 k. Public Administration NAICS Code:

3 I. Key Notes to Reader & Definitions The Sault Ste. Marie Economic Development Corporation has an agreement with the Conference Board of Canada (CBC) to annually produce a report concerning the Gross Domestic Product GDP including a general economic assessment and forecast, including employment and GDP forecasts. It is the only research organization that produces such a report for the Sault Ste. Marie Census Agglomeration. (1) It is important to note that this information represents a broad estimate of the GDP for Sault Ste. Marie s industrial sectors. The estimates assume that labour productivity (output per worker) is constant across all industries in a given province. The charts below are for comparative purposes only and designed to provide a relative indication of sector trends. Using this approach to calculate GDP does not provide a precise indication of the benefit of having a particular strength in a sector such as steel manufacturing. For example, Steel Manufacturing is included within the more inclusive and broader Manufacturing Sector definition. As a result, this approach does not fully reflect the full level of labor productivity that exists within the steel manufacturing sector. This has implications for the estimates of GDP per employee presented in this report. The graphs showing the SSM Manufacturing sector indicate that the City s GDP for this sector range between $310 million and $250 million annually. The SSMEDC knows from other independent studies that the direct GDP for Essar Steel Algoma alone is $565 million for The total ESAI GDP economic impact to Canada is $1.2 billion/year. This translates to approximately $201,785 GDP/employee. In this instance the steel manufacturing sector has a much higher GDP than other subsectors with in the manufacturing sector. It further reinforces the importance of having a steel manufacturer in the community. It has a much higher economic multiplier impact and provides a greater level of labor productivity than other subsectors with in the manufacturing sector. For comparison purposes, it is estimated that the GDP/Employee of ESAI employees is second only to the City s Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector in labor productivity. In comparative terms, ESAI s Total Estimated GDP is more than a third of Sault Ste. Marie s entire estimated GDP. 31 I.A. NAICS Codes Description The report identifies general industrial categories. Since the CBC is trying to embrace all communities and sectors across the country who may or may not have industrial activity for more specific industrial sectors, it grouped them in the manner described below. The 3

4 following table correlates the CBC categories with the associated NAICS codes. Section III provides a CBC/NAICS code description and SSMEDC analysis for each industrial category. Conference Board Categories Primary and Utilities NAICS Code for Industrial Sectors 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 21 Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction 22 Utilities Construction 23 Construction Manufacturing Manufacturing Wholesale and Retail Trade 41 Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Transportation & Warehousing Information and Cultural Industries 51 Information & Cultural Industries Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business Services 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 54 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 55 Management of Companies & Enterprises 56 Administrative Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services Non-Commercial Services 61 Educational Services 62 Health Care & Social Assistance Personal Services 71 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 72 Accommodation & Food Services 81 Other Services ( except Public Administration) Public Administration 91 Public Administration Notes: (1) The Sault Ste. Marie Census Agglomeration includes: City of Sault Ste. Marie Batchewana First Nation - Rankin Location 15D Prince Twp. Laird Twp. Garden River First Nation - Garden River Location Macdonald, Meredith and Aberdeen Additional Township 4 32

5 I.B. CBC Calculation of Gross Domestic Product The CBC estimates GDP by taking the employment share of provincial GDP. They do this for each industry sector. For example, to calculate manufacturing GDP in a given CA, they divide CA employment by provincial employment and multiply that by provincial GDP. The CBC assumes that labour productivity (output per worker) is constant across all industries in a given province. In order to account for commuting, we use employment by place of work data from the Census. 33 5

6 II. Introduction Following the global recession, Sault Ste. Marie recovered fairly well. According to the Conference Board of Canada, the community s real gross domestic product grew an average of 0.9 per cent per year between 2010 and Economic improvements were seen in several sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, personal services, and transportation and warehousing. Throughout the first half of 2015, the Sault Ste. Marie economy continued to remain on fairly stable ground. A weaker Canadian dollar and a strengthening U.S. economy were beneficial to the city s export-oriented manufacturing sector. However, by the latter part of the year, a number of concerns were evident, mostly the uncertainty surrounding two of the city s largest private sector employers. Essar Steel Algoma was severely impacted by low steel prices and global production overcapacity. In November 2015, the company sought protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act. Its restructuring process, which is impacting hundreds of local suppliers, will play out in Potential outcomes include an additional investment by Essar Global, acquisition by an independent third party, liquidation, or a potential combination thereof. Meanwhile, with historically low oil and gas prices, Tenaris Algoma Tubes also struggled in The company, which sells seamless pipe mostly to the oil and gas sector, went from 700 employees to a mere skeleton crew in early The Sault Ste. Marie employment level is also concerning. Representing the total number of people working, employment level is generally seen as one of the most meaningful measures of economic strength. In 2008, before the onset of the global recession, the employment level in Sault Ste. Marie was 40,100. Throughout the following six years, it ranged between 34,300 and 39,700. However, in 2015, the employment level dropped by 17.4% to 33,400, the lowest average annual employment rate in 20 years. Other local economic indicators were unfavourable in 2015 as well. The year-over-year change for the Sault Ste. Marie census agglomeration area revealed that the employment population shrunk by 1%, the size of the workforce shrunk by 8.5%, the number of persons employed decreased by 7,200 or 18%, the number of people Not in the Labour force increased by 6,100 or 19%, the participation rate dropped by 18%, and the number of persons unemployed increased by 30%. These findings are based on annual averages from Statistics Canada, which significantly reduce the statistical variance created by small sample sizes associated with monthly data. Overall, the economic indicators are concerning and present a considerable challenge for the community moving forward. 34 6

7 I.a. Overview of GDP, GDP by Employee, and Employment in All Sectors GDP ($ Millions) All Sectors - $2.9 Billion Non-Commercial Services Wholesale & Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Public Administration Business Services Manufacturing Personal Services Construction Transportation & Warehousing Primary & Utilities Information & Cultural Industries

8 Employment All Sectors (2014) - 36,500 Manufacturing Non-Commercial Services 6, , Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Wholesale & Retail Trade Business Services 3, , , Public Administration Personal Services Construction 2, , , Transportation & Warehousing Primary & Utilities Information & Cultural Industries , , , , , GDP / Employee (2014) All Sectors- $1.2 Billion Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Information & Cultural Industries Public Administration Primary & Utilities Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Business Services Non-Commercial Services Personal Services 135, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 36 8

9 I.b. Overview of GDP, GDP by Employee, and Employment in Goods Producing and Services Sectors Goods Producing Sector GDP ($ Millions) $590 $570 $550 $530 $510 $490 $470 Goods Sector Linear (Goods Sector) $450 Total Employees (Thousands) Goods Sector Linear (Goods Sector)

10 GDP / Employee $120,000 Goods Sector Linear (Goods Sector) $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Services Sector GDP ($ Millions) Services Sector Linear (Services Sector) $2,550 $2,500 $2,450 $2,400 $2,350 $2,300 $2,250 $2,200 $2,150 Total Employees (Thousands) Services Sector Linear (Services Sector)

11 GDP / Employee Services Sector Linear (Services Sector) $84,000 $82,000 $80,000 $78,000 $76,000 $74,000 $72,000 $70,000 $68,000 $66,000 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 11 39

12 III. Analysis of Eleven Sectors for Sault Ste. Marie as Predetermined by Conference Board of Canada (2014) Primary and Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale and Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information and Cultural Industries Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business Services Non-Commercial Services Personal Services Public Administration Data includes the following information for each Sector: NAICS Code and Name of Sector General Description of Sector Major Local Employers Chart of GDP by Sector Chart of GDP per Employee by Sector Trend Analysis 12 40

13 a. Primary and Utilities NAICS Codes: 11, 21, 22 The Primary and Utilities sector of the NAICS code includes Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas Extraction; and Utilities. The Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in growing crops, raising animals, harvesting timber, and harvesting fish and other animals from a farm, ranch, or their natural habitats. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (21) uses the term "mining" to include quarrying, well operations, beneficiating and other mineral preparation customarily performed at the mine sites, or as a part of mining activity and distinguishes two basic activities: Mine operation and Mining support activities. The Utilities (22) sector consists of establishments engaged in the provision of the following utility services: electric power, natural gas, steam supply, water supply, and sewage removal. GDP ( $ Millions) $69 Primary & Utilities Linear (Primary & Utilities) $68 $67 $66 $65 $64 $

14 Total Employees (Thousands) Primary & Utilities Linear (Primary & Utilities) GDP / Employee $166,000 $146,000 $126,000 $106,000 $86,000 $66,000 $46,000 $26,000 Primary & Utilities Linear (Primary & Utilities) $6,000 Tables Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 14 42

15 b. Construction NAICS Code: 23 This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in constructing, repairing and renovating buildings and engineering works, and in subdividing and developing land. These establishments may operate on their own account or under contract to other establishments or property owners. They may produce complete projects or just parts of projects. Establishments often subcontract some or all of the work involved in a project, or work together in joint ventures. Establishments may produce new construction, or undertake repairs and renovations to existing structures. GDP ($ Millions) $200 $195 $190 $185 $180 $175 $170 $165 Construction Linear (Construction) $160 Total Employees (Thousands) Construction Linear (Construction)

16 GDP / Employee $120,000 Construction Linear (Construction) $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Tables Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 16 44

17 c. Manufacturing NAICS Codes: This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in the chemical, mechanical or physical transformation of materials or substances into new products. These products may be finished, in the sense that they are ready to be used or consumed, or semi-finished, in the sense of becoming a raw material for an establishment to use in further manufacturing. Related activities, such as the assembly of the component parts of manufactured goods; the blending of materials; and the finishing of manufactured products by dyeing, heat-treating, plating and similar operations are also treated as manufacturing activities. Manufacturing establishments are known by a variety of trade designations, such as plants, factories or mills. GDP ($ Millions) $320 $300 $280 $260 $240 $220 Manufacturing Linear (Manufacturing) $200 Total Employees (Thousands) Manufacturing Linear (Manufacturing)

18 GDP / Employee $98,000 $88,000 $78,000 $68,000 $58,000 $48,000 Manufacturing Linear (Manufacturing) $38,000 Table Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 18 46

19 d. Wholesale and Retail Trade NAICS Codes: 41, 44, 45 Wholesale Trade comprises establishments primarily engaged in wholesaling merchandise, generally without transformation, and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. The wholesaling process is an intermediate step in the distribution of goods. Many wholesalers are organized to sell merchandise in large quantities to retailers, and business and institutional clients. However, some wholesalers, in particular those that supply non-consumer capital goods, sell merchandise in single units to final users. Retail Trade comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing merchandise, generally without transformation, and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. The retailing process is the final step in the distribution of merchandise; retailers are therefore organized to sell merchandise in small quantities to the general public. This sector comprises two main types of retailers, store and non-store retailers. Their main characteristics are described below. GDP ($ Millions) $550 Wholesale & Retail Trade Linear (Wholesale & Retail Trade) $500 $450 $400 $350 $

20 Total Employees (Thousands) Wholesale & Retail Trade Linear (Wholesale & Retail Trade) GDP / Employee Wholesale & Retail Trade Linear (Wholesale & Retail Trade) $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Table Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 20 48

21 e. Transportation and Warehousing NAICS Codes: This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in transporting passengers and goods, warehousing and storing goods, and providing services to these establishments. The modes of transportation are road (trucking, transit and ground passenger), rail, water, air and pipeline. These are further subdivided according to the way in which businesses in each mode organize their establishments. National post office and courier establishments, which also transport goods, are included in this sector. Warehousing and storage establishments are subdivided according to the type of service and facility that is operated. GDP ($ Millions) $96 $94 $92 $90 $88 $86 $84 $82 Transportation & Warehousing Linear (Transportation & Warehousing) $

22 Total Employees (Thousands) Transportation & Warehousing 1.8 Linear (Transportation & Warehousing) GDP / Employee $78,000 Transportation & Warehousing Linear (Transportation & Warehousing) $68,000 $58,000 $48,000 $38,000 $28,000 $18,000 $8,000 Table Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 22 50

23 f. Information and Cultural Industries NAICS Code: 51 This sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in producing and distributing (except by wholesale and retail methods) information and cultural products. Establishments providing the means to transmit or distribute these products or providing access to equipment and expertise for processing data are also included. The main components of this sector are the publishing industries, the motion picture and sound recording industries, the broadcasting industries, the telecommunications industries, and the data processing and hosting services industries. GDP ($ Millions) $28 Information & Cultural Industries Linear (Information & Cultural Industries) $27 $26 $25 $24 $23 $22 $21 $

24 Total Employees (Thousands) Information & Cultural Industries 0.35 Linear (Information & Cultural Industries) GDP / Employee $142,500 Information & Cultural Industries Linear (Information & Cultural Industries) $122,500 $102,500 $82,500 $62,500 $42,500 $22,500 $2,500 Table Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 24 52

25 g. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate NAICS Codes: 52 & 53 The Finance and Insurance sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in financial transactions (that is, transactions involving the creation, liquidation, or change in ownership of financial assets) or in facilitating financial transactions. Included are: establishments that are primarily engaged in financial intermediation and establishments that are primarily engaged in the pooling of risk by underwriting annuities and insurance. The Real Estate, Rental and Leasing sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in renting, leasing or otherwise allowing the use of tangible or intangible assets. Establishments primarily engaged in managing real estate for others; selling, renting and/or buying of real estate for others; and appraising real estate, are also included. GDP ($ Millions) $470 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Linear (Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate) $460 $450 $440 $430 $420 $410 $400 $

26 Total Employees (Thousands) Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Linear (Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate) GDP / Employee $430,000 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Linear (Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate) $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 $230,000 $180,000 $130,000 $80,000 $30,000 Table Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 26 54

27 h. Business Services NAICS Codes: 54, 55, 56 The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in activities in which human capital is the major input. These establishments make available the knowledge and skills of their employees, often on an assignment basis. The individual industries of this sector are defined on the basis of the particular expertise and training of the service provider. The Management of Companies and Enterprises sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in managing companies and enterprises and/or holding the securities or financial assets of companies and enterprises, for the purpose of owning a controlling interest in them and/or influencing their management decisions. They may undertake the function of management, or they may entrust the function of financial management to portfolio managers. The Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services sector comprises establishments of two different types: those primarily engaged in activities that support the day-to-day operations of other organizations; and those primarily engaged in waste management activities. GDP ($ Millions) $310 $305 Business Services Linear (Business Services) $300 $295 $290 $285 $

28 Total Employees (Thousands) Business Services Linear (Business Services) GDP / Employee $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Business Services Linear (Business Services) $30,000 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 28 56

29 i. Non-Commercial Services NAICS Codes: 61 & 62 The Educational Services sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing instruction and training in a wide variety of subjects. This instruction and training is provided by specialized establishments, such as schools, colleges, universities and training centres. These establishments may be privately owned and operated, either for profit or not, or they may be publicly owned and operated. They may also offer food and accommodation services to their students. The Health Care and Social Assistance sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing health care by diagnosis and treatment, providing residential care for medical and social reasons, and providing social assistance, such as counseling, welfare, child protection, community housing and food services, vocational rehabilitation and child care, to those requiring such assistance. GDP ($ Millions) $580 $575 $570 $565 $560 $555 Non-Commercial Services Linear (Non-Commercial Services) $550 Total Employees (Thousands) 11 Non-commercial Services Linear (Non-commercial Services)

30 GDP / Employee $105,000 $95,000 $85,000 $75,000 $65,000 Non-Commercial Services Linear (Non-Commercial Services) $55,000 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 30 58

31 j. Personal Services NAICS Codes: 71, 72, 81 The Arts, Entertainment and Recreation sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in operating facilities or providing services to meet the cultural, entertainment and recreational interests of their patrons. These establishments produce, promote or participate in live performances, events or exhibits intended for public viewing; provide the artistic, creative and technical skills necessary for the production of artistic products and live performances; preserve and exhibit objects and sites of historical, cultural or educational interest; and operate facilities or provide services that enable patrons to participate in sports or recreational activities or pursue amusement, hobbies and leisure-time interests. The Accommodation and Food Services sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing short-term lodging and complementary services to travelers, vacationers and others, in facilities such as hotels, motor hotels, resorts, motels, casino hotels, bed and breakfast accommodations, housekeeping cottages and cabins, recreational vehicle parks and campgrounds, hunting and fishing camps, and various types of recreational and adventure camps. This sector also comprises establishments primarily engaged in preparing meals, snacks and beverages, to customer orders, for immediate consumption on and off the premises. The Other Services (except Public Administration) sector comprises establishments, not classified to any other sector, primarily engaged in repairing, or performing general or routine maintenance, on motor vehicles, machinery, equipment and other products to ensure that they work efficiently; providing personal care services, funeral services, laundry services and other services to individuals, such as pet care services and photo finishing services; organizing and promoting religious activities; supporting various causes through grant-making, advocating (promoting) various social and political causes, and promoting and defending the interests of their members. Private households are also included. GDP (Millions) $210 $205 $200 $195 $190 $185 $180 Personal Services Linear (Personal Services) $

32 Total Employees (000's) Business Services Linear (Business Services) 2 GDP / Employee $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Personal Services Linear (Personal Services) $15,000 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 32 60

33 k. Public Administration NAICS Code: 91 The Public administration sector comprises establishments primarily engaged in activities of a governmental nature, that is, the enactment and judicial interpretation of laws and their pursuant regulations, and the administration of programs based on them. Legislative activities, taxation, national defense, public order and safety, immigration services, foreign affairs and international assistance, and the administration of government programs are activities that are purely governmental in nature. GDP (Millions) $340 Public Administration Linear (Public Administration ) $330 $320 $310 $300 $290 $280 $270 $260 $250 Total Employees (000's) Public Administration Linear (Public Administration)

34 GDP / Employee $145,000 Public Administration Linear (Public Administration ) $125,000 $105,000 $85,000 $65,000 $45,000 $25,000 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. (2014) 34 62

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