NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

Transcription

1 NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

2 This brief is part of a series of outputs under the analytical work Forever Young? Social Policies for a Changing Population in Southern Africa. Outputs include: Forever Young? Social Policies for a Changing Population in Southern Africa (overview report) Forever Young? Botswana Country Brief Forever Young? Lesotho Country Brief Forever Young? Namibia Country Brief Forever Young? South Africa Country Brief Forever Young? Swaziland Country Brief 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC Telephone: ; Internet: All rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution Please cite the work as follows: Bruni, Lucilla Maria, Jamele Rigolini, and Sara Troiano Forever Young? Namibia Country Brief. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0. Translations If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: ; pubrights@worldbank.org. Design: Kilka Diseño Gráfico

3 AN UNPRECEDENTED BOOST IN THE WORKING AGE POPULATION Between 1950 and 2000, Namibia saw substantial gains in life expectancy at birth, boosted by a decline in infant and child mortality of approximately 70 percent. As a response to falling mortality, the total fertility rate nearly halved from 6.7 to 3.5 children per woman between 1975 and The effects of the decrease in fertility and mortality on the population age structure (Figure 1) will become particularly evident in two decades from now, when the proportion of adults between the ages of 20 and 50 will peak. In 2050, the working age population will be 53 percent larger than today. A larger workforce, accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of young dependents, can provide favourable conditions for economic growth and increased output per capita the so called demographic dividend. 3

4 FIGURE 1. THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION IS CHANGING RAPIDLY Namibia population age structure, Females 2015 Males Thousands Females 2050 Males Thousands Females Males Thousands Source: Moultrie FOREVER YOUNG? NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

5 DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND, OR DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB? A large number of people in working age can be a blessing, or a curse depending on the economic and policy environment. Namibia currently suffers from double-digit unemployment, which reaches 46 and 39 percent among young men and women, respectively (Figure 2). With increasingly large cohorts of new entrants into the labor markets, between now and 2050, the country will need to create 580,000 new jobs just to keep current unemployment levels from worsening further. The demographic dividend can turn into a demographic bomb if more and more young people will be out of work. However, the additional number of working age individuals can also magnify the effects of improvements in labor markets. If Namibia were to implement labor market policies that lead employment ratios of males and females to rise to the current OECD male employment ratio of 62.7 percent by 2050, GDP per capita in that year would be 27 percentage points higher, and moderate poverty (measured by the recently updated international reference of US$3.10 a day at 2011 PPP) 5 percentage point lower, than they would be if the labor market keeps performing as it does (Figure 3). 5

6 Proportion of labor force FIGURE 2. UNEMPLOYMENT IS STUBBORNLY HIGH, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE YOUTH (%) FIGURE 3. BENEFITS FROM JOB CREATION AND EMPLOYMENT POLICIES WILL BE MULTIPLIED BY A LARGE NUMBERS OF WORKERS Overall and youth unemployment rate by gender GDP per capita in Youth unemployment, male Overall unemployment, male Youth unemployment, female Overall unemployment, female Real GDP per capita, 2050 (Index, 2014=100) No demographic effect Demographic effect (same policy enviroment) Demographic effect plus employment ratios of males and females converging to the current OECD male ratio by 2050 Source: Margolis & Yassine Source: Ahmed & Cruz FOREVER YOUNG? NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

7 WHAT CAN NAMIBIA DO NOW TO HARNESS THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND? Invest in education Today s economic and social policies will determine if the demographic transition brings social and economic benefits, or is a drag on both growth and equity. Social policies, in particular, are key in empowering the population throughout the life-cycle for it to be able to harness the demographic dividend. Reforms in educational policies will have to take the recent achievements in coverage further (taking into account that much is still to be done to fill the coverage gaps in secondary education, Figure 4), without disregarding the need to improve educational quality. High repetition and drop-out rates, high variation in the quality of teaching, and a lack of skills development, all contribute to poor performance of Namibian students in international tests of learning outcomes. When calibrated to the PISA scale, results from the III Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ) learning outcomes assessment indicate Namibia as one of the worst performing countries in the world (Figure 5). Luckily, between now and 2050, the decrease in the child dependency ratio will free resources up to 2 percent of GDP, providing some fiscal room to implement much needed reforms. 7

8 FIGURE 4. UNDER CURRENT TRENDS, ONLY HALF OF THE CHILDREN WILL COMPLETE SECONDARY SCHOOL BY 2030 Grade 12 Grade 7 Projected completion rates FIGURE 5. NAMIBIA SCORES BELOW WHAT ITS LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD IMPLY Imputed PISA score - Combined Learning performance in PISA metrics by per capita GDP Quality Index (PPP$), around 2011 Namibia Log GDP per capita Source: van der Berg & Knoesen Promote the wellbeing of people across the lifecycle Having a productive population will require the health system to adapt to emerging challenges. Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly becoming a major source of death and disability among the Namibian population (Figure 6). At the same time, communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are still widespread. To advance in the eradication of these epidemics, TB and HIV care needs to be better integrated, so that TB patients are tested for HIV and vice versa. Similarly, health and social care should go hand in hand: HIV/ AIDS and TB patients and their families need help in overcoming psycho-social barriers and stigmatization that often cause low adherence to prevention practices and treatment. 8 FOREVER YOUNG? NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

9 FIGURE 6. THE BURDEN OF NCDS IS INCREASING RAPIDLY Percentage of total deaths Age-standardized mortality rate by cause (per population) Injuries Non-communicable diseases Communicable & other Source: World Health Organization. The social assistance system is currently biased towards the elderly, while little resources are devoted to children, youth and adults. As of 2011, 87 percent of total social assistance expenditure went to the oldage social pensions and the large non-contributory pension program for veterans, leaving little budget for child grants, nutrition programs and active labor market policies. Cash transfers accruing to children, from maintenance grants to foster care grants, reach a mere 15 percent of the population under 18, while 92 percent of the elderly population receives the basic pension (ILO 2014). To reap the benefits of the demographic transition, the social assistance system should re-orient some of its focus towards supporting the development of children and youth. A better integration of social assistance programs with education and health policies (Figure 7) will also be essential to ensure that social policies are most effective in sustaining an educated, healthy and non-poor population along the life-cycle. 9

10 FIGURE 7. AN OPPORTUNITY TO REORGANIZE SOCIAL PROGRAMS IN AN INTEGRATED LIFE-CYCLE APPROACH Mapping of main social services available by age group, 2012 Social Assistance: Development Fund (Bursaries) Social Promotion: Basic and Tertiary Education, Health services (including reproductive health) Adolescents and Youth Social Assistance: Child Grants School Feeding Social Promotion: Maternal and child health Basic Education Children HOUSEHOLD Working Age Population Social Promotion: Development Fund (Training, Employment services), Health services Elderly Social Assistance: Old age pension, Disability, War Veterans pension Social promotion: Health services Source: Troiano THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW! While the demographic transition in Namibia is inevitable, a resulting positive dividend is not. Namibia will have to act now and implement policy reforms that will allow the current and future generations to harness the demographic dividend: if these generations succeed, they will deliver economic growth that they can pass to their children, generating a virtuous cycle of economic growth and social development. 10 FOREVER YOUNG? NAMIBIA COUNTRY BRIEF

11 REFERENCES Ahmed, Syud Amer, and Marcio Cruz Growth and Poverty in Southern Africa under Different Policy Scenarios. Background paper for Forever Young? Social policies for a changing population in Southern Africa. World Bank. ILO Namibia Social Protection Floor Assessment Report. International Labour Organziation. Margolis, David N., and Chaimaa Yassine Demographics and Labor Markets in Southern Africa. Background paper for Forever Young? Social policies for a changing population in Southern Africa. World Bank. Moultrie, Tom A Demographic Profiles of Five Countries in Southern Africa and Implications for the Demographic Dividend. Background paper for Forever Young? Social policies for a changing population in Southern Africa. World Bank. Troiano, Sara A Life-Cycle Assessment of Social Protection Systems in Southern Africa. Background paper for Forever Young? Social policies for a changing population in Southern Africa. World Bank. van der Berg, Servaas, and Marizanne Knoesen Implications of Demographic Projections for Education in the Five SACU Countries. Background paper for Forever Young? Social policies for a changing population in Southern Africa. World Bank. 11

12