Japan Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse Outlook Edition MACRO REPORT
|
|
- Terence Bennett
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 MACRO REPORT Japan Economy Update 2015 Outlook Edition Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo Soggiu Senior Economist, Central Banks Global Asset Allocation Research 2015 Outlook: After two quarters of negative GDP growth (a technical recession in Q2 and Q3 2014), we expect a decent rebound in Q and modest GDP growth in The Core Inflation rate is expected to decline to about 0.5% by April 2015 and to remain there for the rest of the year. Economic Conditions: With regard to the GDP drivers, Household Consumption has been recovering gradually, between a tight labour market and halting progress on wages. Capital Expenditures have been the main driver of the technical recession; the yen depreciation and still decent corporate profitability point to an improvement. The Bank of Japan remains ready to act, based on developments in the macro outlook (growth and inflation). Any serious fiscal consolidation has been postponed for the medium term, while Corporate Tax reduction and fiscal stimulus are under discussion. Political Stability: In the last elections, the ruling coalition (LDP + New Komeito) kept the same number of seats, 326 out of 475. As a result, Prime Minister Abe maintained his political capital and bought time to implement Abenomics, and he delayed the Consumption Tax hike. Macro Pulse Source: Pioneer Investments, as of December 31,
2 (%YoY) Japan Macro Report 2015 Outlook Edition Economic Conditions Growth Trends On the 8th of December, the Japanese Cabinet Office released the Final figure for Japan s Q GDP at -1.9% QoQ annualized, lower than the -1.6% previously reported and still negative. The drivers of the further downward revision have been Investments Non Residential (Capex) and Inventory Changes. According to the Final figure, Japan has technically been in recession (two negative quarters, Q2 and Q3 2014), which was not our main case. The weak economic momentum is behind the decision to delay the next Consumption Tax hike from October 2015 to April On the basis of the new data set, we anticipate slightly positive GDP growth for 2014 (0.1% YoY) with a decent rebound in Q (1.9% QoQ ann.) and we reiterate the case for a modest recovery in 2015/2016 (0.4% YoY and 1.2% YoY, respectively). We do not expect robust performance on the private consumption side, as household demand will remain quite muted. On the one hand, wages have only just turned up in real terms, after the strong hit caused by the spike in inflation. On the other hand, the labor market is tight and remains supportive of a private consumption recovery. Now that the second step of the Consumption Tax hike has been delayed, a crucial factor will be the next round of wage negotiations in the spring. Figure 1. JAPAN Wages 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0 Consumption tax hike -4, Contractual Cash Earnings Real Wages Source: Japan Cabinet Office, Datastream, Pioneer Investments, as of December 8th, Non-Residential Fixed Investments surprised for their weakness in 2014: The recovery in the Industrial Production and Machinery orders during Q3 has not been enough to offset the decline in Q2. The initial figures for economic activity in the last quarter of 2014 have remained weak, supporting our forecast of anemic Capex in the quarter. However, the most recent figures for Corporate Profitability and diffusion indices (such as the Tankan) are supportive of a mild positive outlook going into 2015: the weakness in the Capex numbers is expected to be temporary and profitability has remained reasonable (Corporate Japan has a JPY/USD at 104 as the baseline case), especially for large corporations. Core Inflation will remain well above zero and above the 2.0% Bank of Japan (BoJ) target (thanks to the Consumption Tax hike in April 2014) until April 2015, when 2
3 the base effect will fade. Putting aside the Consumption Tax hike, the inflation path remains positive, but well below the target of 2.0% and below the lower band of the range (1%-1.5%) expected by the BoJ. Beginning in April 2015, we believe the base effect will bring the Core Inflation rate officially around 0.6%. We expect it will remain there for the rest of the year with the next step of Consumption Tax hike off the radar (until 2017) and oil prices in the mid-70s, according to our scenario. The only game changer in town is the BoJ, which is depreciating the yen. According to our scenario analysis, a JPY vs. USD towards 140 (about 15%-20% of further depreciation from the current level) would add 0.4% to Core CPI, all else being equal. Monetary Policy The BoJ continues to support financial markets by injecting increasingly vast amounts of yen liquidity into the system. At the October 2014 meeting, the policy was again accelerated: The BoJ will now purchase a net 80T yen of Japanese government bonds a year (vs. 50T previously), of all maturities with the aim of raising the average duration of its portfolio from 7 to 10 years. It is also purchasing additional ETFs (3T a year vs. 1T) and REITs (90B a year vs. 30B). Money market operations are now aimed at the monetary base, with the aim of increasing it by 80T per year (vs T prior). The 2% inflation target has become a medium term target, with the BoJ no longer vowing to reach it within 2 years. In November, the BoJ indicated that it will continue its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing policy until the 2% inflation target has been reached in a stable manner. Looking forward, it vowed to check risks and adjust monetary policy as appropriate. In theory, further stimulus may be enacted in the coming months. Fiscal Policy The main achievement in terms of Fiscal Policy for next year is the delay of the Consumption Tax, which has been pushed back from October 2015 and is currently scheduled to be implemented by April The New Komeito party, which confirmed its power in the recent elections, is working to lower the rate of the Consumption Tax on the essentials. In the background, fiscal consolidation will continue to be required for the country, given a Debt to GDP ratio of approximately 240%. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) plans to increase the overall tax burden towards levels of North European countries. If the economic cycle doesn t respond as Abe hopes to reflationary measures, the MoF could eventually be forced to dispose of public assets. At the very end of 2014, two new elements appeared on the fiscal front: a tax reform proposal and a plan for a stimulus package of 3.5T yen in With regard to the first element, details have been released for a reduction in the Corporate tax from the current 34.6% over two years. By FY 2016 the Corporate tax will be reduced by 3.3% to 31.3% and brought below 30% within a few years. Details on how to fill the resulting revenue gap have yet to be released. With respect to the fiscal stimulus package, approved the 27 th of December: 1.2T yen will go to assist consumers and businesses in response to current economic conditions, 0.6T will be directed toward the Regional Revitalization plan and 1.7T are planned for public expenditures for recovery/reconstruction post disaster and for disaster preparedness. Financial Conditions The Great Financial Crisis created the conditions for the General Government in Japan to leverage further, taking the place of the Household and Corporate sectors which increased their savings rates. As of today, Japan has a private sector in surplus while the General Government is in deficit. 3
4 We do not expect that next year will see any change in that dynamic, absent success on the part of Abe s government in reflating the economy. Once the Private sector is ready to reduce its saving in favor of stronger Investment/Consumption, the Public sector will likely be able to begin to eliminate its deficit. We think any fiscal consolidation without a sale of public assets could obtain the opposite result if it doesn t come after a proper economic reflation in Japan. In the meantime, the 31 st of October, the Government Pension Investment Fund revised its Model Portfolio Allocation, in order to increase exposure to Equity (Domestic and Foreign) and reduce exposure to Bonds. The Model Portfolio will apply to all public pension schemes from 01 Oct 15, but the adjustment of positions has already started. Figure 2. JAPAN GPIF Model Portfolio Allocation: Indicative Guidelines 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Domestic Bonds Domestic Stocks Foreign Bonds Foreign Stocks Cash and Other Median Allocation OLD Median Allocation New Source: GPIF, Pioneer Investments, as of November Key Points on Economic Conditions Source: Pioneer Investments, as of December 31,
5 Stability Factors Demographics According to the Japanese Statistics Yearbook, Total Population in Japan has been declining by 0.2% a year since The natural change of the population is negative and the contribution from net migration is virtually nonexistent. The population pyramid is already discouraging based on 2013 figures; also depicted below is the anticipated population distribution in Figure 3. JAPAN Pyramid Population Source: Japanese Statistics Yearbook, as of November 2014 Politics On the 14 th of December, Japan held its elections, called less than one month before. In our opinion, the objectives of calling the snap elections were to buy time, regain the popularity lost in recent months by the Cabinet and to have an easy escape from the implementation of the second step of the Consumption Tax hike scheduled for October With respect to the results, the ruling coalition (LDP + New Komeito) kept the same number of seats, 326 out of 475; with regard to the objectives, Abe hit the targets. So, as of now, he has maintained and extended his political capital. What s next? Between January and February, the supplementary FY2014 budget and the FY 2015 budget will be proposed and approved. The key point here is how the decline in revenues caused by the delay of the Consumption Tax and the introduction of Corporate Tax reform will be offset. The winter Diet session will start in January. Will the Cabinet go ahead with deregulation and structural reforms, or focus on the security-related bill? Regional elections in April. LDP Presidential elections in September. Economic Health & Social Japan is a wealthy country if we refer to the private sector, in particular to aged households and large corporations (the companies operating at the highest end of the value chain). The system overall is healthy and the risk of social unrest nonexistent. Japan ranks 6 th out of 148 economies on the Global Competitiveness Index, with particular strength in regard to business sophistication, the capacity to innovate and 5
6 Index Japan Macro Report 2015 Outlook Edition the availability of infrastructure 1. However, there are also two significant points of weakness, the public sector and labor market efficiency, that cloud the picture. The General Government Debt and the Budget Balance (about at 240% and -8% of GDP) could impair any attempt to reflate the economy, as was shown by the weak momentum since April following the debate on the next Consumption Tax hike. The fiscal consolidation phase can be started more easily when the economy is on a clear and solid reflation path. In our view, a broad framework revising the taxation system has to be implemented with the objective of incentivizing the reflation path as well as easing the budget deficit. The labor market is inefficient in terms of flexibility in hiring and firing people, thus promoting all kinds of temporary contracts that result in the younger generation being underpaid. It s inefficient as well in terms of offering equal opportunities to and attracting talented women. The result is a labor sector with distortions by generation and by gender. The total labor force participation rate declined by 2% between 2003 and 2013, with the strongest decline in the youngest age group (-5%) and an increase (+5%) in the oldest age group. In the same period, the total male participation rate averaged 72.4%, versus 48.4% for females. Figure 4. JAPAN Labor Participation Rate by Group of Age Total 15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years Source: Japan Statistics Bureau, Pioneer Investments, as of November Key Points on Stability Conditions Source: Pioneer Investments, as of December 31, The Global Competitiveness Report World Economic Forum. 6
7 2015 Triggers and Risks Triggers Further JPY depreciation going forward could lead Net Exports to further support economic growth. A more convincing implementation of economic measures by the Cabinet, following the victory in December elections, could boost the potential GDP growth rate and productivity in coming years. Risks A weak attitude in terms of growth strategies without any effort in terms of fiscal consolidation could push the country towards default. Higher-than-expected interest rates could offset the efforts put in place by the BoJ and the Cabinet to revive the economy, pushing the country s debt to default. 7
8 Macroeconomic Forecast Japan E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2014E 2015E 2016E Macroeconom i c Forecasts Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E GDP & Com ponents % QoQ Annualized % QoQ Annualized % QoQ Annualized GDP Personal Consumption Expenditures Government Consumption Expenditures Residential Investments Non- Residential Investments Total Internal Demand (YoY %) Total Consumption + Fixed Investments+Inventories Final Internal Demand (YoY %) Total Consumption + Fixed Investments Exports Imports GDP Contri buti ons Net trade Inventori es changes Econom i c Trend % Y oy % Y oy % Y oy Industrial Production Corporate Profits Employees' Compensations Corporate Goods Prices Index Consumer Prices Index Unemployment Rate M2+CD Update as of December 31, 2014; for time series with higher frequency (monthly or daily) than quarterly, we consider the quarterly average; in Italic exogenous variables; GDP components on quarterly frequency are %Q/Q annualized rates; all other figures, if not otherwise specified, are %Y/Y. Important Information Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of December 31, Unless otherwise stated, all views expressed are those of Pioneer Investments. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested. This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any services. Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies. Date of First Use: January 7, Follow us on: 8
Key Insights. Macro Pulse. Japan was out of the technical recession in Q
MACRO REPORT Japan Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationJapan: Economy Update
Japan: Economy Update July 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Also contributing Riccardo Soggiu Senior Economist, Central
More informationJapanese Economy Update
Japanese Economy Update September 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Alessia Berardi Senior Economist Also contributing Riccardo Soggiu Senior Economist,
More informationUS Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse. October 2015
US Economy Update October 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationUS Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse Outlook Edition MACRO REPORT
MACRO REPORT US Economy Update 2015 Outlook Edition Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Elina Ribakova Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi
More informationUS Economy Update May 2014
US Economy Update May 2014 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationEurozone Economy Update
MACRO REPORT Eurozone Economy Update September 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - January
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - January 2015 - Executive summary Japanese Economy SMAM forecasts the Japanese economy to bottom-out from the 1Q 2015 as private consumption
More informationKey Insights. China Macro Pulse
MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views ~ December 2014 ~
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views ~ December 2014 ~ Executive summary Japanese Economy Jul-Sep GDP came out at surprisingly weak headline number of -1.6% QoQ annualized. This
More informationJAPAN S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JAPAN S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Nobumitsu Hayashi President (PRI) Ministry of Finance of JAPAN 3 rd ICRIER-PRI Workshop, March 18, 2013 Understanding - or misunderstanding - Japan and its Economy Japanese economy
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - August
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - August 2016 - Executive summary Japanese Economy PM Abe announced yen 28 trillion fiscal stimulus, among which central and local government
More informationMonthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy March 15 Macro Economic Research Centre Economics Department http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/ This report is the revised English version of the February
More informationMonthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy June 1 Macro Economic Research Centre Economics Department http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/ This report is the revised English version of the May
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on June 15 and 16, 2017
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Monday, June 26, 2017. June 26, 2017 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on June 15 and 16, 2017 I. Opinions on
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - June
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - June 2018 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Extremely cold winter and early spring ended in Japan. Consumer sentiment was negatively affected
More informationThe Travelling Economist: Japan Too much is not enough
` The Travelling Economist: Japan Too much is not enough Economic Research Note 7 July 2015 The Travelling Economist was recently in Japan, holding meetings with the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Bank
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationJapan's Economy and Monetary Policy
September 16, 2014 B ank of Japan Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Osaka Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan (English translation based on the
More informationNobuyasu Atago Chief Forecaster, Japan Center for Economic Research
May 2013 SA154 Short-Term Forecast for the Japanese Economy (2013/4-6 2015/1-3) Yen Correction and Rising Stock Prices Boost Economic Recovery - Risk that wealth effect will exacerbate fluctuations in
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationJapan's Economy and Monetary Policy
September 28, 2015 B ank of Japan Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Osaka Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan (English translation based on the
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014)
October 31, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a
More informationECONOMY REPORT - JAPAN
ECONOMY REPORT - JAPAN (Extracted from 2001 Economic Outlook) REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The Japanese economy was on a gradual recovery from the trough of the business cycle in April 1999, helped by both
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017) October 31, 2017 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding on the back of highly accommodative financial
More informationJan-Mar nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 8 June 2016 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 08 Jun 2016 Jan-Mar 2016 2 nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Real GDP growth rate revised upwards slightly from 1 st preliminary; results in accordance
More informationEconomic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis
Provisional Translation Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis July 18, 2017 Cabinet Office, Japan Projections are conducted by the Cabinet Office s "Economic and Fiscal Model,"
More informationJul-Sep nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 8 December 2014 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 08 Dec 2014 Jul-Sep 2014 2 nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Downward revision betrays hopes, falls below market consensus Economic Intelligence
More informationEconomic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis
Provisional Translation Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis January 23, 2018 Cabinet Office, Japan Projections are conducted by the Cabinet Office s "Economic and Fiscal Model,"
More informationJapan s Economic Outlook No. 190 Update (Summary)
Japan's Economy 9 September 2016 (No. of pages: 20) Japanese report: 08 Sep 2016 Japan s Economic Outlook No. 190 Update (Summary) What will happen if there is a Recurrence of Financial Instability in
More informationJul-Sep st Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 16 November 2015 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 16 Nov 2015 Jul-Sep 2015 1 st Preliminary GDP Estimate Second consecutive quarter of negative growth due mainly to inventory adjustment
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationOctober 2016 Market Update
Market Update (10/2016) Allianz Investment Management LLC October 2016 Market Update Key Points The lack of further easing measures from both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are causing
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2018)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2018) January 23, 2018 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding on the back of highly accommodative financial
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)
April 30, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on October 30 and 31, 2017
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Thursday, November 9, 2017. November 9, 2017 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on October 30 and 31, 2017 I.
More informationOutlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007
VOL2.NO.2 January 2007 Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007 Economic recovery surpasses Izanagi in length The economy is continuing its longest post-war economic recovery. Nearly five years have passed
More informationJan-Mar st Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 20 May 2015 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 20 May 2015 Jan-Mar 2015 1 st Preliminary GDP Estimate Economic recovery confirmed in two major aspects of domestic demand Economic Intelligence
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2018)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2018) July 31, 2018 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential in fiscal 2018, mainly
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until 2: p.m. Japan Standard Time on Wednesday, January 24, 218. Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 218 (English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on December 19 and 20, 2018
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Friday, December 28, 2018. December 28, 2018 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on December 19 and 20, 2018 I.
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Economic Monthly [Japan] Employee compensation is rising and the downward pressure on disposable income is fading YUUSUKE YOKOTA KEI SHIMOZATO ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 22 MAY 2018 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION
More informationMapping Japan s Economic Future
Mapping Japan s Economic Future 2014 December Takuji Okubo, Chief economist, Japan Macro Advisors (JMA) takuji.okubo@japanmacroadvisors.com 1 About Japan Risk Forum The Japan risk forum is a general incorporated
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on April 26 and 27, 2018
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Thursday, May 10, 2018. May 10, 2018 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on April 26 and 27, 2018 I. Opinions
More informationFlash Note Japan: Macro and market outlook
FLASH NOTE Flash Note Japan: Macro and market outlook Strong growth and Abenomics mean Japanese equities continue to provide opportunities Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research 26
More informationEconomic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Okinawa August 29, 2018 Hitoshi Suzuki Bank of Japan Global Economy Chart 1 IMF Projections as of July
More informationKoji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy
Koji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy Speech by Mr Koji Ishida, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Fukuoka, 18 February
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - October
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - October 2015 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Japanese economy was dragged by stalling private consumption and exports though extremely
More informationLETTER. economic. Canada and the global financial crisis SEPTEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER SEPTEMBER Canada and the global financial crisis In the wake of the financial crisis that shook the world in and and triggered a serious global recession, the G-2 countries put forward
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until 2: p.m. Japan Standard Time on Thursday, January 24, 219. Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 219 (English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese
More informationFiscal 2015 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management
Provisional translation Fiscal 2015 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management February 12, 2015 Cabinet Decision 1.Japanese Economy in FY2014 In FY2014, the Japanese economy
More informationEconomic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
September 6, 2018 Bank of Japan Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Kanagawa Goushi Kataoka Member of the Policy Board (English translation
More informationOECD Economic Outlook. Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk November 2014
OECD Economic Outlook Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk November 2014 The global economy is stuck in low gear World GDP growth Per cent, seasonally-adjusted annualised rate 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Average
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationLessons from Japan: How Abenomics Can Provide Solutions for Advanced Countries
Lessons from Japan: How Abenomics Can Provide Solutions for Advanced Countries Yasushi Kinoshita Former Administrative Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance, Japan Visiting Fellow, Center on Japanese Economy
More informationBANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY
BANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY Table of Contents Global economy to grow steadily 3 FORECAST FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Global economy to grow steadily TODAY 1:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 1/2017
More informationHaruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy
Haruhiko Kuroda: Japan s economy and monetary policy Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Osaka, 28 September 2015. Introduction * * * It is
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, October 31, 15. October 31, 15 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices October 15 (English translation prepared by the Bank's
More informationEconomic Monthly [Japan]
Economic Monthly [Japan] A strong wage hike at the annual wage negotiations will be vital in overcoming deflation TOORU KANAHORI KEI SHIMOZATO ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 26 FEBRUARY 2018 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE
More informationJapan: Recent Macroeconomic
Japan: Recent Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook Presentation by Giovanni Ganelli Senior Economist IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Mizuho Investment Conference September 13, 2013, Tokyo
More informationEconomic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
August 31, 2017 Bank of Japan Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Ehime Takako Masai Member of the Policy Board (English translation based
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2017) Summary
April 27, 2017 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2017) Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding and maintain growth at a pace above its potential,
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented by: Sara Johnson Senior Research Director, Global Economics IHS Global Insight Sun Valley, Idaho September 20, 2010 A Subdued U.S. Economic Expansion U.S. economic growth
More informationGENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. November 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK November 2011 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Overview General Fund revenue through October is $115 million
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook February 2015 Stocks to Fully Rebound from Late 2014/Early 2015 Sell-off with ECB Launching Aggressive QE, Rate Cuts by Several
More informationOn Abenomics and the Japanese Economy. Motoshige Itoh Member, Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy and Professor, University of Tokyo
On Abenomics and the Japanese Economy Motoshige Itoh Member, Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy and Professor, University of Tokyo The purpose of this brief overview is to summarize some of the major
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationBOJ: Rethinking the Mandate
BOJ: Rethinking the Mandate August 31, 2017 by Yomoya Masanao of PIMCO SUMMARY Who will be the governor of the Bank of Japan after Kuroda s term expires is an important question, but equally important
More informationCzech Koruna and the Economic Outlook
Czech Koruna and the Economic Outlook Vladimír Tomšík Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Austrian-Czech Economic Forum Czech National Bank Congress Centre Prague, 7 June 17 Outline 1. The CNB s exchange
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices and Monetary Policy
M a y 10, 2 0 1 7 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting Held by the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai (Research Institute of Japan) in Tokyo Haruhiko Kuroda
More informationDeflation, the Labor Market, and QQE
August 23, 2014 Bank of Japan Deflation, the Labor Market, and QQE Remarks at the Economic Policy Symposium Held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until 2: p.m. Japan Standard Time on Wednesday, August 1, 218. Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices July 218 (English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese
More informationJapan's Real GDP. The Output Gap and the Tankan Composite Indicator
Japan's Real GDP Chart tril. yen 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Source: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts." Chart The Output Gap and the Tankan Composite Indicator % reversed, DI ("excessive" -"insufficient"), % points
More informationAnnual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 2007
Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 27 - Toward Higher Productivity Growth - Summary August 27 Cabinet Office Government of Japan Contents Chapter 1 Continued Economic Recovery and
More informationHaruhiko Kuroda: Moving forward Japan s economy under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing
Haruhiko Kuroda: Moving forward Japan s economy under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Japan Society, New York City, 26 August
More informationJapan's Growth Potential and Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing
June 3, 2 0 14 B ank of Japan Japan's Growth Potential and Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing Remarks at a Panel Discussion at The Bank of Korea International Conference 2014 Kikuo Iwata Deputy
More informationFiscal 2006 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management. 1. Economic and Fiscal Management and the Japanese Economy in FY2005
Provisional Translation Fiscal 2006 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management January 20, 2006 Cabinet Decision 1. Economic and Fiscal Management and the Japanese Economy in
More informationMid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review
18 December, 2013 Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review RBI maintained status quo in the mid-quarter monetary policy meeting held today preferring to wait and watch for more forthcoming macro-economic data
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views -July
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views -July 2018 - Executive summary Japanese Economy GDP forecast for FY 2018 was slightly upgraded by 0.1% to 1.2% due mainly to higher starting
More informationIrish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Irish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit 9th October 2018 Budget 2019 Public Finances in Balance The Irish economy has performed strongly in recent years, boosting tax revenues. Corporation
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on March 14 and 15, 2019
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Tuesday, March 26, 2019. March 26, 2019 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on March 14 and 15, 2019 I. Opinions
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationRIETI BBL Seminar Handout
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) RIETI BBL Seminar Handout Japan's Abenomics: Reload, Reset or Relaunch? September 27, 216 Speaker: Luc EVERAERT http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook December 2014 Stocks Rebound from Early October Sell-off & Surge with Liquidity Boost from Japan, Eurozone & China Global Stock
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2018)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2018) The Bank's View 1 Summary April 27, 2018 Bank of Japan Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential in fiscal 2018,
More informationMonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017
q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and
More informationEconomics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time
Economics Japan: BOJ s exit will take time DBS Group Research 14 June 2017 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been focusing on yield curve control after reforming its policy framework in Sep16 The recent decline
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More information