Guatemala Poverty in Guatemala

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Report No GU Guatemala Poverty in Guatemala Februayra 20, 2003 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit Human Development Sector Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region,Document of the Wtorld Bank

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 = GTQ7.70 (July 1, 2000) US$ 1= GTQ7.78 (Current) FISCAL YEAR December 31 - January I ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ANACAFE = National Coffee Association AP = All poor ARI = Acute respiratory infections BNI = Basic Needs Indicators CA = Central America CONRED = Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducci6n de Desastres DHS = Demographic and Health Survey ENCOVI = Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida (Living Standards Measurement Survey) FPL = Full poverty line GUAPA = Guatemala Poverty Assessment Program (World Bank) HDI = Human Development Index HIPC = Highly Indebted Poor Countries IGSS = Instituto Guatemalteco de Seguridad Social INCAP = Instituto de Nutricion de Centro Ame'rica y Panamd INE = National Statistics Institute; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica - Guatemala KAI, KA2 = Kaqchiqel communities in QPES study KII, K12 = K'iche communities in QPES study Li, L2 = Ladino communities in QPES study LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean Region MI, M2 = Mam communities in QPES study MAGA = Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderfa y Alimentaci6n MDG = Millennium Development Goals MECOVI = Program for the Improvement of Surveys and Measurement of Living Conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean MINEDUC = Ministry of Education MINUGUA = United Nations Verification Mission - Misi6n de Verificaci6n de las Naciones Unidas en Guatemala MSPAS = Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance NP = Non-poor PRONADE = Programa Nacional de Autogesti6n para el Desarollo Educativo PRSP/ERP = Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PTA = Parent-teachers association (school committees) QEI, QE2 = Q'eqchi communities in QPES study QPES = Qualitative Poverty and Exclusion Study (ECEP) SA = Social Assistance SAS = Secretaria de Asuntos Sociales de la Municipalidad de Guatemala SBS = Secretaria de Bienestar Social de la Presidencia de la Republica SEGEPLAN = Secretaria de Planificaci6n y Programaci6n Si = Social Insurance SIAS = Sistema Integral de Atenci6n de Salud SIAF = Integrated Financial Management System SOSEP = Secretaria de Obras Sociales de la Esposa del Presidente SP = Social Protection UNDP = United Nations Development Program URL = Universidad Rafael Landfvar VAT = Value Added Tax WHO = World Health Organization XPL = Extreme poverty line XP = Extreme poor Vice President Country Director LCSPR Director LCSHD Director Sector Manager-Poverty Sector Manager-Social Protection Sector Leader Resident RepresentativeTask Manager Task Manager David de Ferranti Jane Armitage Ernesto May Ana-Maria Arriagada Norman Hicks Christopher Chamberlin Helena Ribe Eduardo Somensatto Kathy Lindert

3 Guatemala Poverty Assessment TABLE OF CONTENTS MAIN REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... i Chapter 1 - Introduction... 1 Context for Report: the GUAPA Program... 1 Objectives of Report Analytical Framework..... ; ;,.2 Information Sources: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Data... 3 Overview of the Report....,,.4 PART 1 - THE MAGNITUDE AND CAUSES OF POVERTY... 7 Chapter 2 - "The Problem:" Poverty and Social Indicators... 7 Monetary Indicators of Poverty and Inequality in Guatemala... 7 Non-Monetary Indicators of Poverty and Living Conditions in Guatemala Perceptions of Poverty and Welfare in Guatemala Chapter 3 - The Determinants of Poverty and Inequality: Endowments and Household Characteristics.. 23 The Determinants of Poverty The Sources of Inequality Chapter 4 - Historical and Contextual Factors. 30 Diversity, Ethnicity and Isolation Exclusionary Forces in Guatemala's Historical Pattern of Development Guatemala's 36-Year Civil War: Significant Costs for Long-Term Development The 1996 Peace Accords: Towards a More Inclusive Course of Development PART 2 - KEY CHALLENGE: BUILDING OPPORTUNITIES AND ASSETS Chapter 5 - Growth and Poverty Poverty and Growth Over Time Poverty and Growth in the Future: Targets and Projections Sunmnary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 6 - Livelihoods, Labor Markets, and Rural Poverty Incomes and Inequality Labor Markets... ; 50 Rural Poverty and Livelihoods Summary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 7 - Education and Poverty Sectoral Overview Educational Stock, Coverage and Equity Internal Efficiency Disparities in the Quality of Education Barriers to Enrollment and Attainment The Returns to Education... 73

4 Public Spending and Equity Summary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 8 - Health, Malnutrition and Poverty Main Health Challenges A Focus on Malnutrition: A Red Flag! Access to Health Care Supply-Side Factors Demand-Side Factors Summary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 9 - Basic Utility Services and Poverty The Benefits of Basic Services Sectoral Overview Access and Equity Barriers to Improved Access: Supply vs. Demand-Side Achieving Universal Coverage: Time and Costs Costs and Subsidies for Basic Services Summary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 10 - Transport, Poverty and Isolation Access to Roads Road Quality and Dependability Public Transport The Effects of Isolation: Limited Access to Services and Opportunities Summary of Key Issues and Priorities PART 3 - KEY CHALLENGE: REDUCING VULNERABILITY Chapter 11 - Vulnerability and Vulnerable Groups Shocks as a Source of Vulnerability in Guatemala Vulnerable Groups in Guatemala Summary of Key Issues and Priorities Chapter 12 - Social Protection - Private Transfer and Poverty Overview of SP Programs: Types, Magnitudes and Spending Coverage of SP Programs and Private Transfers Distributional Incidence (Targeting Outcomes) of SP Programs Overall Effectiveness of SP Programs Impact on Poverty and Inequality Cost-Benefit Analysis Summary of Key Issues and Priorities PART 4 - KEY CHALLENGE: EMPOWERMENT Chapter 13 - Building Institutions and Empowering Communities Public Sector Management Governance Community Participation and Social Capital Role of Other Actors Summary of Key Issues and Priorities

5 PART 5 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Chapter 14 - Priority Actions to Reduce Poverty A Broad Agenda for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala Some Progress and Key Issues Priority Actions for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala Priority Target Groups for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala Monitoring Poverty Reduction Efforts REFERENCES FOR MAIN REPORT TEXT TABLES 2.1 Poverty in Guatemala, Poverty Indicators by Welfare Measure Poverty Patterns in Guatemala Inequality (Gini coefficients) Trends in the Human Development Index, Perceptions of Welfare from 10 Rural Villages, QPES Perceptions of Poverty from 10 Rural Villages, QPES Summary Report Card for Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators of Poverty and.21 Living Conditions 3.1 The Correlates of Poverty Decomposition of Inequality in Guatemala Language Ability by Socio-Economic Group Performance of Select Peace Monitoring Indicators - A Snapshot for the Years 2000, Average Real Growth Rates, 1950s-1990s Main Macroeconomic Indicators, Pro-Poor Growth? The Sectoral Pattern of Employment and Annual Growth (in %) GDP Growth and Poverty Reduction GDP Growth and Non-Monetary Indicators Meeting Poverty Strategy and Millennium Targets: Hit or Miss? Income Sources, by Consumption Quintiles Rural Poverty by Land Status and Main Source of Income Types of Crops Produced, by Type of Household Net Enrollment Rates, by Level and Group The Direct Cost of Schooling Returns to Education, by Gender Public Expenditures on Education Distributional Incidence of Public Spending on Education and Educational Support.77 (Demand-Side) Programs 8.1 International Comparison of Various Health Indicators, Decomposition of Coverage Deficit - Access to Health Facilities Public Spending on Health, Distributional Incidence of Public Spending, by Facility Use of Different Health Facilities by People with Type of Insurance Coverage Share of Individuals Covered by Health Insurance Utilization of Health Services by Children with Diarrhea or ARI Utilization of Health Services by Individuals Prenatal Care and Treatment During Delivery, Pregnant Women Average Cost of Prenatal and Delivery Care, by Type of Facility International Comparisons Coverage of Basic Services (Percentage of Households with. 99 Access) 9.2 Coverage of Basic Services, by Area and Quintile Probability that an Unserved Household was Connected.101

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