Capitalizing on Momentum: Israeli Financial Reform

Transcription

1 Capitalizing on Momentum: Israeli Financial Reform

2 Opacity Index, Israel s rank: 22nd out of 48 countries Higher scores denote more opacity 60 Russia China Brazil 50 India HK UK U.S. Japan Israel 10 0 Source: Milken Institute.

3 2007 Capital Access Index Top 10 countries Max = 10 Ranking for economic institutions United Kingdom Singapore Hong Kong Source: Milken Institute. Canada New Zealand Finland Australia United States Japan Ireland Israel Rank: 26th

4 2007 Capital Access Index Top ten countries Ranking for financial and banking institutions Max = 10 Ireland Sweden Norway Hong Kong Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand United Kingdom Denmark Source: Milken Institute. Israel Rank: 33rd 6.33

5 2007 Capital Access Index Top ten countries Max = 10 Ranking for bond market development Belgium 8.25 Austria United Kingdom Sweden Australia Malaysia Denmark France Norway United States Source: Milken Institute. Israel Rank: 22nd

6 A measure of inequality Israel s Gini coefficient Source: Dan Ben-David, Tel Aviv University.

7 Israel s Opacity score for each component More Maximum = High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income Israel Less C Corruption Source: Milken Institute. L Legal system E Enforcement policies A Accounting/ disclosure standards R Regulatory quality

8 2007 Capital Access Index Top ten countries Max = 10 Saudi Arabia Ranking for macroeconomic environment Source: Milken Institute. Singapore Hong Kong Canada Oman Estonia Finland Kuwait Switzerland Malaysia Israel Rank: 12th

9 Israel s most problematic factors for doing business Inefficient government bureaucracy Tax rates Policy instability Tax regulations Government instability/coups Inadequate supply of infrastructure Restrictive labor regulations Access to financing Inadequately educated workforce Corruption Poor work ethic in national labor force Foreign currency regulations Crime and theft Inflation Percent of responses Source: The Global Competitiveness Report

10 How businesspeople see Israel 2007 Overall ease of doing business Starting a business Dealing with licenses Employing workers Registering property Getting credit Protecting investors Paying taxes Trading across boarders Enforcing contracts Closing a business Ranking* Source: World Bank. *Out of 178 countries

11 Ease of doing business Israel ranks 29 th of 178 countries in 2008 Israel ranked 26 th of 178 countries in 2007 Rank Singapore New Zealand United States Hong Kong, China Denmark United Kingdom Canada Ireland Australia Norway 2008 Singapore New Zealand United States Hong Kong, China Denmark United Kingdom Canada Ireland Australia Iceland Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2008.

12 Israel ranks low for closing a business, paying taxes, and employing workers Closing a business Paying taxes Employing workers 1 Japan Maldives Marshall Islands 2 Singapore Singapore Singapore 3 Norway Hong Kong, China United States 4 Canada United Arab Emirates Brunei 5 Finland Oman Georgia 6 Ireland Ireland Tonga 7 Denmark Saudi Arabia Maldives 8 Netherlands Kuwait Australia 9 Belgium New Zealand Palau 10 United Kingdom Kiribati Denmark Israel, rank: 40th Israel, rank: 69th Israel, rank: 87th Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2008.

13 Israel s global competitiveness Score range: 1-7, the higher the better Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic stability Health and primary education Technological readiness Financial market sophistication Source: The Global Competitiveness Report Labor market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency

14 Macroeconomic barriers The macroeconomic growth gap: Measured by the difference between actual business-sector product and potential output that can be produced under full employment without causing inflationary pressures

15 Macroeconomic barriers Israel has experienced inadequate growth shared unequally Had Israel been able to maintain levels of growth at 50 percent of pre-1973 levels, current conditions of poverty, income polarization, infrastructure underdevelopment, and social and economic gaps that threaten the country s social cohesion would have been ameliorated

16 Macroeconomic barriers The gap in total factor productivity (TFP) growth The differences in technological productivity explain more than 60% of the differences among countries in income and growth rates The entrepreneurial financing gap, evidenced by restrictions to capital Goal to bridge gap: GDP annual growth rate 4.5% per capita

17 Capital market reform in Israel : Bachar Committee Ref orm GDP per capita (in U.S. $) : End of Designated Bonds to Provident Funds and Life Insurance 1995: Ceiling on Designated Bonds to New Pension Funds 2003: Old Pension Fund Reform 2004: SEC rulings on disclosure and enforcement adopting U.S. standards 1985: Lift of Exchange Controls Sources: IMF, Milken Institute, 2007 Year

18 Concentration combined with conflict of interests Conflict of Interests enhances the impact of the Concentration Concentration fertilizes the Conflict of Interests Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bachar Committee.

19 The Israeli capital market Non-Bank Intermediaries Savings Investments Banks Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bachar Committee.

20 Banking concentration according to the HHI and CR2 indices Source:, Knesset Research Office. 12/ /1994 HHI CR 2 03/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2004 H Index CR

21 Bachar Committee recommendations Committee to form recommendations pertaining to competition in the following areas by June 30, Tradable equity market Money Market Funds Equity repurchase agreements Distribution of funds by non-tase members Facilitation of inter-bank customers mobility Deposit Accounts Insurance Bond issuance by banks Source: Ministry of Finance, Israel.

22 Banking concentration according to the HHI index Source:, Knesset Research Office.

23 Assets of the Israeli public November 2007 Long Term Savings Provident Funds Pension Funds Participating Life- Insurance Policies Guaranteed Life Insurance Policies Sub-Total Bank Deposits Mutual Funds Direct Investments Total Source: Bank of Israel. NIS Billions ,063 US$ Billions % of Total 13.3% 10.6% 4.5% 2.3% 30.7% 30.9% 6.1% 32.3% 100%

24 Improving credit allocation Distribution of credit to the Israeli 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% business sector by sources, % 73% 62% 57% 43% 27% 38% 23% Source: Bank of Israel. bank sources non-bank substitutes

25 Improving credit allocation International Comparison, Distribution of Non-Bank Credit, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 27% 23% 38% 80% 79% 76% 42% 40% 39% 46% 47% 47% Israel USA UK EU Sources: Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, The Office of National Statistics (UK) and the ECB

26 Israel Netherlands Ireland Norway UK Finland Switzerland Sweden Belgium France Austria Portugal Spain Germany Japan Australia USA Foreign investments as a percentage of total investments Sources: Ministry of Finance, 2006

27 Israel s current position in the global equity markets FTSE All World Index Free Market Cap Weight (%) # Co's All World 31,172, ,860 Free Market Cap Weight # Co's United States 12,809, United Kingdom France 2,848, ,562, Japan Germany 2,646, ,200, Brazil 3,672, , Canada 1,033, Korea 530, Switzerland 925, Australia 917, Taiwan 423, Spain 611, Brazil 593, India 358, Italy Korea Netherlands China 568, , , , Hong Kong Taiwan India Russia 558, , , , China Russia South Africa Mexico 335, , , , Sweden 323, Malaysia 122, South Africa 289, Finland 226, Israel 77, Mexico 198, Singapore 156, Indonesia 59, Belgium / Luxembourg Norway 139, , Denmark Malaysia 130, , Thailand Chile 52, , Greece 94, Poland 44, Ireland 86, Israel 77, Turkey 41, Austria 73, Indonesia 59, Egypt 28, Portugal Chile Turkey Hungary New Zealand 58, , , , , Thailand Poland Egypt Czech Republic Colombia 52, , , , , Hungary Czech Republic Colombia Argentina Peru 27, , , , , Argentina 15, Morocco 13, Peru 13, Morocco 13, Philippines 11, Philippines 11, Pakistan 7, Pakistan 7, Sources: NTGI, FTSE, Factset. FTSE Emerging Markets Index

28 Israel s current position in the equity markets Top 5 companies comprise 71% of the index MSCI Israel Constituents Foreign Market Index Inc. Factor Cap Weight MSCI Israel 79,436.7 TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL IND , ISRAEL CHEMICALS , BANK HAPOALIM , BANK LEUMI LE-ISRAEL , CHECK POINT SOFTW. (USD) , ISRAEL CORP , MA MAKHTESHIM-AGAN IND , BEZEQ ISRAEL TELECOM , NICE SYSTEMS , PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS , ELBIT SYSTEMS , CELLCOM ISRAEL , ISRAEL DISCOUNT BANK , ORMAT INDUSTRIES , MIZRAHI TEFAHOT BANK OIL RAFINERIES AFRICA ISRAEL INV KOOR INDUSTRIES DISCOUNT INVESTMENT CORP IDB DEVELOPMENT CORP CLAL INSURANCE ENT MIGDAL INSURANCE HLDGS HAREL INSURANCE INVEST DELEK GROUP GAZIT GLOBE (1982) ALVARION (USD) STRAUSS GROUP RETALIX ALADDIN KNOWLEDGE SYSTEM GIVEN IMAGING (USD) RADWARE (USD) AUDIOCODES (USD) Sources: NTGI, FTSE, Factset.

29 Changing dynamics within emerging markets Large growth of assets under management Surge of inflows in 2005, 2006 and 2007 Some slowing of inflows in 2008 YTD Significant growth/addition of large EM companies Gazprom Sberbank Improved data/information quality and more efficient markets Source: Northern Trust.

30 Changing dynamics within emerging markets Probable graduation of key Advanced Emerging Markets Korea Taiwan Israel Probable additions to EM asset class in China A Shares Gulf Markets Eastern Europe Africa & Caribbean Source: Northern Trust.

31 Stage of development & stock market maturity - GNI per capita (US$): market cap ratio Hong Kong South Africa 2004 Market Capitalization/GNI Pakis tan India Egypt Philippines China Indonesia Thailand Brazil Russia Iran Turkey Argentina Malaysia Chile Saudi A rabia Hungary Czech Republic Poland Mexico Taiw an United Kingdom Sw itzerland United States Kuw ait Canada Spain France United Arab Emirates Is rael Japan Korea Italy Germany , , , Source: NTGI, Standard & Poor s, World Bank 2004 GNI per Capita (US$)

32 Opportunities to raise Israel s market cap Dual listing of securities Increase available shares for public purchase (e.g. free-float): Index Current Average Float FTSE MSCI S&P/IFCI Privatization of government-owned companies through the local stock exchange Increase the number and quality of new stock listings in Israel through encouragement of second-tier market Encouragement/facilitation of efficient foreign investment into the market, especially via index-based products (e.g. ETFs and index funds) tracking float-adjusted indexes such as TA-25 and TA-100 Source: Northern Trust.

33 Recent reforms in the Israeli financial sector: outcome Divestiture of long-term savings and its impact on financial intermediation margins 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7/2005 Legislation of the Bachar Reforms 0.0% Interest Rate Gap Intermediation Gap Source: Guy Ben-Ishai.

34 Conclusions Lack of competition in Israeli banking can be particularly harmful to SMEs and low-income households. Separation of long-term savings has not induced additional competition in retail banking. Price regulation does not prevent the exercise of market power. Inadequate access to household and SME credit history inhibits competition. Source: Guy Ben-Ishai.

35 Public holdings value in Israel in million shekels Source: TASE.

36 Percentage of public holdings in Israel Source: TASE % 55.00% 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%

37 Israel s Economic Potential Yossi Hollander

38 Export forecast according to industries in US$ billions basic scenario Average rate of change 2025 accelerated scenario Average rate of change Export % % Advanced technology Industry and agriculture % % % % Tourism % 6 6.0% Other industries % % Source: Economic Models.

39 Additional investment required in US$ billions Total Excluding housing Housing Basic Scenario Accelerated Scenario 1, Rate of growth within 20 years 260% 297% 188% Source: Economic Models.

40 Accelerated growth target 15 th rank by year 2030 Pending economic problems job creation, income inequality and poverty, maintenance of growth rate. Solution accelerate Israel s growth rate to 4.5% during the next 30 years (three times the historical rate). Result improvement in Israel s global rank to 17 by 2025 (and 15 by 2030) and substantial improvement in standard of living. Source: Economic Models.

41 Capital and product stock per employee in Israel and the U.S US$ thousands Israel U.S. Ratio Israel / U.S. Product per employee % Capital per employee % Wages $ per month 1,664 3,628 46% Source: Economic Models.

42 Critical path for the Israeli economy In order to meet known future needs, Israel s economy must: Accelerate GDP per capita growth to 4.5% Obtain the capital (investment) needed for growth Increase the rate of participation in the workforce Maintain 8% annual growth of the high-tech sector Source: Economic Models.

43 Demography basic scenario Total Majority Ultra- Orthodox Arabs Population - thousands ,577 (7,053) 6,131 1,292 2,154 Percent of population Fertility rate per woman Rate of participation in the workforce 100% 64% 13% 23% % 61.8% 47.9% 44.7% Source: Economic Models.

44 Needed financial reform Obtain the capital (investment) needed for growth Release underutilized internal financial resources Substantially Increase foreign investment Source: Economic Models.

45 Financial reform: principles Improve attractiveness and performance of current growth engines (especially high-tech) Turn Israel into a global financial center Turn Israel into an international HQ center for the developing world (west of China, east of Germany) Source: Economic Models.

46 Summary Israel's economy difficulties may become the trigger for phenomenal economic success Source: Economic Models.

47 Is Israel Becoming a Global Investment Center? Keinan - Cohen - Pomrenze - Steinhardt Milken Institute Global Conference April, 2008

48 How are industries born in Israel? Will finance be the next technology? 2007 Technology venture investment: $1.76B Tech M&A Events Tech IPOs M&A Dollar Value IPO Dollar Amount $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, Israeli industry has demonstrated an ability to capture opportunity by adjusting and adapting very rapidly. Source: Israel Venture Association. $0

49 The technology paradigm (1) Foundation: Outstanding Human Resources Solid Higher Education Experience Gained Internationally, Concentrated Locally Western Legal and Accounting Standards Entrepreneurial Culture Source: KCPS.

50 The technology paradigm (2) Catalyst: Human resources reaching critical mass Maturing indigenous talent Returning professionals New immigrants Legislative reform spurring activity Government bond reform creating demand for services Performance-based competition Securities and tax regulation loosening IT maturity Tipping Point: Does Technology 1995 = Financial Services 2008? Source: KCPS.

51 Why hasn t this happened yet? Regulation? Securities law Tax law No longer a obstacle Talent? Definitely not an obstacle Willingness to act? See next slide Source: KCPS.

52 Theory to practice Investment management: First to evolve, best fit for Israel: Source: KCPS. Mature venture capital industry Maturing international real-estate investment industry Developing private equity industry, now globalizing Fledgling hedge fund industry - About 15 local funds manage Over 10 billion Dollars* Bachar Reforms spawning competitive mutual fund industry with global potential * Estimate

53 KCPS as a demonstrative case study: 1. Investment talent atypical to a comparably sized firm in London or New York 35 Professionals managing investments on a global basis High concentration of advanced degrees Veterans of top-tier global investment firms 2. Global Investor Base: ~80% of current assets under management non-israeli Primarily experienced, savvy institutional and private investors 3. Short track record, but strong, on-target performance to date 4. We are not alone Source: KCPS.

54 KCPS firm overview Firm Management Fund Management Group Financial Solutions Group Fund-of-Funds Unit Private Equity Unit Trading Unit Institutional Client Unit Private Client Unit Units managed independently by dedicated teams with deep industry experience Source: KCPS.

55 Milken Institute global 2006 idea Launch: June 2008 by Northern Trust More liquidity through indexing and ETFs "NETS TA-25 Index ETF" Ticker symbol: TAV (NYSE)