GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND POPULARITY: HONG KONG CASH HANDOUT

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1 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND POPULARITY: HONG KONG CASH HANDOUT LEARNING OBJECTIVES In this project you will: draw Lorenz curves assess the effect of a policy on income inequality convert nominal values to real values (extension). Key concepts Concepts needed for this project: percentile, Gini coefficient, and Lorenz curve. Concepts introduced in this project: nominal and real values. INTRODUCTION An important role of the government is to use tax revenue to provide goods and services for its citizens. When governments have an unanticipated budget surplus (taxes exceed government spending and interest payments on government debt), they may choose to increase spending on public infrastructure programs or improve the publicly funded goods and services provided to their citizens. An alternative way to handle a budget surplus is to simply make a payment to citizens. While this policy may seem unconventional, it is exactly what the Hong Kong Government did in In every year from 2004 to 2010, the Hong Kong Government had a budget surplus, so they decided to distribute part of this surplus to the public by giving a one-off payment of $6,000 HKD (approximately 770 USD) to every citizen aged 18 CORE PROJECTS This empirical project is related to material in: Unit 12 ( ) of Economy, Society, and Public Policy Unit 19 ( ) and Unit 22 ( of The Economy. 643

2 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND POPULARITY: HONG KONG CASH HANDOUT or above, irrespective of need. This program, known as Scheme $6,000, was announced at the start of 2011, and after a year-long registration process, transfers were made to citizens bank accounts in You can read a brief summary of Scheme $6,000 in the article Government to start next phase of Scheme $6,000 ( While it may seem odd to reject free money, 120,000 residents (around 2% of all eligible residents) did not register to receive the handout ( There were various arguments against using the scheme, including its failure to address income inequality effectively. We will assess the effects that this policy could have on inequality, and discuss some reasons why governments may choose this policy over other redistributive policies. 644

3 WORKING IN EXCEL EXCEL-SPECIFIC LEARNING OBJECTIVES In addition to the learning objectives for this project, in this section you will learn how to convert cells from text to number format. PART 12.1 INEQUALITY One reason cited for Scheme $6,000 was to share the gains from economic growth among everyone in the society. We will be using household income data collected by the Hong Kong government to assess the potential effects of this scheme. Download the data ( The first tab contains information about household incomes for certain percentiles of the population. These incomes are pre-intervention, meaning that they do not include the effects of handouts or policy interventions from the government. (If you are curious about the difference between the two tables in this tab, see the extension section Nominal and real values (page 647) at the end of Part 12.1.) 1 Using the table Monthly real household income (pre-tax, $HKD), plot a separate line chart for each percentile, with year on the horizontal axis and income on the vertical axis. Describe any patterns you see over time. Now we will use this data to draw Lorenz curves and compare changes in the income distribution for One way to do this is to make the following simplifying assumptions: There are 100 households in the economy (so we can think of each percentile as corresponding to one household). Households between the 15th and 25th percentile have the same income as the household in the 15th percentile, households between the 25th and 50th percentile have the same income as the household in the 25th percentile, and so on. (Households below the 15th percentile earn nothing.) 645

4 WORKING IN EXCEL 2 Draw Lorenz curves for 2011 and 2012 by carrying out the following: (a) Create a new column for 2012 only, showing incomes following the $6,000 handout. (Remember that this amount was given to all households, including those with no income.) (b) Calculate the economy-wide earnings in 2011 and (Hint: Multiply the income of a given percentile by the number of households assumed to earn that amount.) (c) Use your answer to Question 2(b) to complete the table in Figure 12.1 below. (The second row also shows zeros in 2011 because the bottom 15% of households earned nothing.) (d) Draw the Lorenz curves for 2011 and 2012 in the same chart, with cumulative share of population on the horizontal axis and cumulative share of income on the vertical axis. In order for the chart to be drawn to scale, use the scatterplot option Scatter with Straight Lines and Markers instead of the usual line chart option. Add the perfect equality line to your chart, and add a chart legend. Now we will compare the Gini coefficients in 2011, 2012, and 2013 (a year after the policy came into effect). Instead of calculating the coefficients manually, we will use an online Gini coefficient calculator ( ), which takes a list of values and calculates the Gini coefficient. 3 Calculate the Gini coefficient by carrying out the following: (a) Create a table as in Figure 12.2, and fill in the remaining values (some values for 2011 have been filled in for you). The first column should contain the numbers 1 to 100, in intervals of 1, and the remaining columns should contain the incomes earned by a household at that percentile (using the same assumption as in Question 2). To obtain accurate answers, use two decimal places instead of rounding incomes to the nearest dollar. Cumulative share of the population (%) Perfect equality line Cumulative share of income in 2011 (%) Cumulative share of income in 2012 (%) Figure 12.1 Cumulative share of income, for some percentiles of the population. 646

5 PART 12.1 INEQUALITY Percentile , , , Figure 12.2 Incomes earned by each percentile of the population. (b) For each year, copy and paste the income values for all percentiles into the Gini coefficient calculator ( to obtain the Gini coefficient for that year. (c) Based on the Gini coefficients from Question 3(b), what effect did the $6,000 handout appear to have on income inequality in the short run, and in the long run? Suggest some explanations for what you observe. 4 In our analysis we assumed that the $6,000 handout was the only policy that affected households in In reality a household s disposable income will also depend on taxes and transfers. Without doing additional calculations, explain what would happen to the shape of the Lorenz curve and inequality in 2012 if: (a) households in and below the 15th percentile received cash transfers from the government (b) households in and above the 75th percentile had to pay income tax. EXTENSION Nominal and real values In this extension section, we will discuss how the table Monthly nominal household income (pre-tax, $HKD) taken from the Hong Kong poverty situation report 2016 ( was used to create the table Monthly real household income (pre-tax, $HKD), and why we needed to make this conversion. The difference between real and nominal income is that real income takes inflation into account. You may be familiar with the concept of inflation, which is an increase in the general price level in the economy. Usually inflation is measured by taking a fixed bundle of goods and services and looking at how much it would cost to buy that bundle, compared to a reference year. (For more details about real vs nominal variables, see the Einstein Comparing income at different times, and across different countries ( in Section 1.2 of The Economy). If the bundle of goods and services has become more expensive, then we conclude that the price level in the economy has increased. inflation An increase in the general price level in the economy. Usually measured over a year. See also: deflation, disinflation. 647

6 WORKING IN EXCEL In this case, the values from 2010 onwards have been adjusted to account for the fact that prices have increased since 2009, so the same income would be able to purchase fewer goods and services. Without making this adjustment, we would conclude that households in the 15th percentile had the same purchasing power in 2009 and 2010, when in fact they do not as they can buy fewer goods and services in 2010 because of the overall price increase. 5 Convert nominal values to real values, using 2009 as the reference year: (a) To understand what happens to a given value over time due to inflation, create a table as in Figure 12.3 below, and fill it in according to the percentage increases shown. (These percentages were taken from the Monthly Digest of Statistics ( (For example, $1 in 2009 would be $1.024 in 2010.) For greater accuracy, round your answers to three decimal places. With a starting value of $1 in 2009, what would the value be in 2016? Year Percentage increase (from previous year) Value ($) Figure 12.3 Creating an index-based series from percentage increases. (b) Use this table to convert nominal incomes to real incomes by dividing the nominal income by the corresponding value in the third column (for example, divide nominal incomes in 2010 by to get the value in 2009 terms). You should get the same values as in the real household income table. PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY One possible reason why the government implemented Scheme $6,000 was to gain public approval, since there was some pressure on the government to spend the surplus on alleviating current social issues rather than reinvesting it (for example, in pension schemes). We will use a public opinion poll conducted by the University of Hong Kong to assess whether this scheme could have improved public satisfaction with the government. 648

7 PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY 1 Think about the groups who would be affected by this scheme (for example, the government or members of the public). Who would be likely to support or oppose this scheme, and why? Download the data: Go to the overall performance results page on the HKU POP website ( which contains half-yearly survey data on the overall performance of the government. Under the subheading Collapsed data, copy and paste the entire table directly into a new tab in Excel. (The data is not available in Excel format, so you will have to resort to this method.) 2 (a) Excel will recognize the data you have pasted as text, but to make charts, the data needs to be in number format. Follow the steps in Excel Walk-through 12.1 below to reformat the column called Net Value. (b) Read the HKU POP survey methods page ( for a description of how the survey data was collected. Explain whether you think the sample is representative of the target population, and discuss some limitations of the survey method. EXCEL WALK-THROUGH 12.1 Using SUBSTITUTE to clean text in cells Figure 12.4 How to use SUBSTITUTE to clean text in cells by removing spaces before and after the text. 1. The data We will use the data in Column I as an example. 649

8 WORKING IN EXCEL 2. Numbers stored as text Excel currently recognizes the values in Column I as text, so when you try to plot a line chart, it will come out like this, with no actual data being plotted. 3. Remove unnecessary spaces Excel thinks the numbers are text because there is a space before and after the number. To remove the spaces, we use the SUBSTITUTE function (to remove non-breaking spaces i.e. spaces that do not result in a new line), then the TRIM function (which removes spaces before and after text). 650

9 PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY 4. Copy and paste into a new column The numbers in Column J are still stored as text, but we cannot convert Column J to numbers because there is a formula in those cells. Instead, we need to copy and paste (values only) into a new column, then convert the pasted data to numbers. 5. Convert text to numbers Now Excel will recognize that numbers are stored as text, and will give you the option to convert them to numbers. 651

10 WORKING IN EXCEL 6. Numbers correctly stored in Excel Now Excel recognizes the values in Column K as numbers, so you can use them to plot a line chart. 3 Assess public satisfaction with the government by carrying out the following: (a) Make a line chart with overall public satisfaction (net value, which is the difference between percentage of positive and negative responses) on the vertical axis, and time ( Jan June 2006 to the latest period available) on the horizontal axis. Comment on any trends in overall public satisfaction over this time period. (b) Go to the POP polls main data page ( and choose one or two other indicators that are directly related to the policy (for example, improving people s Degree of prosperity or Degree of equality ). Find a table of the data by clicking Content, then Table (if half-yearly data is not available, choose the most similar time interval). Copy and paste the data into a new tab, and reformat the variable of interest as in Question 2. (c) For each of your chosen indicators, make a separate line chart as in Question 3(a) and comment on any similarities to or differences from the chart in Question 3(a). (Since some indicators may be measured on a different scale, focus on changes over time.) (d) Do you think the scheme had the intended effect on government popularity? Besides the scheme, what other factors or events could explain the observed patterns? 652

11 PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY 4 In 2018, the government decided to do another cash handout. Read the article Hong Kong cash handout scheme will cost government HK$330 million to administer ( and discuss how this scheme differs from the 2011 scheme. Explain whether you think this policy is an improvement over the 2011 scheme. 5 Suppose you are a policymaker in a developed country with a large budget surplus, and one of the government s aims is to reduce income inequality. Would you recommend that the government implement a scheme similar to either the 2011 or 2018 scheme? If you recommend a cash handout, suggest some modifications that could make the scheme more effective. If not, suggest other policies that may be more effective in reducing inequality. 653

12

13 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 SOLUTIONS These are not model answers. They are provided to help students, including those doing the project outside a formal class, to check their progress while working through the questions using the Excel or R walk-throughs. There are also brief notes for the more interpretive questions. Students taking courses using Doing Economics should follow the guidance of their instructors. PART 12.1 INEQUALITY 1 Separate line charts for each percentile are provided in Solution figures 12.1 to Real incomes have generally increased over time for all percentiles except the 15th percentile. 2 (a) The solution depends on your software and is not shown. (b) Assuming 100 households, the economy-wide income is $1,690,668 in 2011 and $2,213,815 in Solution figure th percentile of incomes. 671

14 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 SOLUTIONS Solution figure th percentile of incomes. Solution figure th percentile of incomes. Solution figure th percentile of incomes. 672

15 PART 12.1 INEQUALITY (c) Values are rounded to two decimal places, and shown in Solution figure (d) The Lorenz curves are shown in Solution figure (a) The completed table is too large to provide here, but some values for 2012 and 2013 are provided in Solution figure (b) The Gini coefficient is 0.47 in 2011, 0.34 in 2012, and 0.47 in (c) The $6,000 handout had a noticeable impact on income inequality in 2012, but these impacts did not last until One reason that the scheme only had a one-year effect on income inequality after 2012 is that a one-off lump-sum payment did not address the root causes of income inequality (for example, differences in education or qualifications, which determine the job opportunities and wages available to households, or institutions that prevent social mobility). The fact that it was a one-off handout meant that low Solution figure th percentile of incomes. Cumulative share of the population (%) Perfect equality line Cumulative share of income in 2011 (%) Cumulative share of income in 2012 (%) Solution figure 12.6 Cumulative share of income, for some percentiles of the population. 673

16 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 SOLUTIONS income households, who are typically credit constrained and unable to borrow were likely to spend it on consumption. The amount was not large enough to pay for training or qualifications or to allow a household to set up a small business. It is also unlikely that the changes in household income in 2012 were entirely due to the scheme. The incomes of the richer households may have increased more than those of the poorer households, for example due to receiving larger end-of-year bonuses or receiving tax rebates, which could outweigh the $6,000 given in the scheme. If this were the case, the fall in the Gini coefficient would have been moderated by these effects. 4 (a) If households currently receiving zero income received additional cash transfers from the government, their cumulative share of income would increase, so the Lorenz curve at that part would move closer to the perfect equality line. Inequality (and the Gini coefficient) would decrease. Solution figure 12.7 Lorenz curves for 2011 and Percentile , , , , , , , , , , , , Solution figure 12.8 Incomes earned by each percentile of the population. 674

17 PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY (b) If the richer households had to pay income tax, their cumulative share of income would decrease, so the Lorenz curve at that part would move closer to the perfect equality line. Inequality (and the Gini coefficient) would decrease. 5 (a) Solution figure 12.9 shows the percentage increases over time. Values are rounded to three decimal places. For the percentage changes given, $1 would be $1.289 in 2016 (a 28.9% increase). (b) The solution depends on your software and is not shown. PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY 1 Supporters of the scheme could include: citizens who receive the payment, especially the lower-income households, for whom $6,000 would be a more substantial increase in their annual income government officials and politicians, since the scheme is a visible way to address inequality in society, which could help boost their popularity and help to get them re-elected social welfare groups or related organizations, who could view this scheme as one step towards reducing inequality. Opponents of the scheme could include: lower-income people, who may believe that a pay-out independent of need is unfair wealthier or more powerful members of society, such as businesspeople, who may believe they made a larger contribution to economic growth and may therefore not perceive an equal split as being fair policymakers, who may believe that other programs or policies could be more effective at addressing inequality than a one-off lump-sum payment (for example, additional subsidies for lower-income households, or transfers to lower-income households only). 2 (a) The solution depends on your software and is not shown. Year Percentage increase (from previous year) Value ($) Solution figure 12.9 Creating an index-based series from percentage increases. 675

18 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 SOLUTIONS (b) Some measures were taken to ensure the sample was representative, for example: The sample is selected according to the gender age distribution of the population of interest. Telephone numbers were randomly generated. Limitations of the survey method include: The website does not specify whether landline numbers or mobile phone numbers are used (or both). Certain age groups are more likely to have and use a mobile phone (likewise for landlines), which affects the likelihood of being successfully contacted. Certain groups of people are more likely to have the time to complete the survey. 3 (a) The line chart showing overall public satisfaction is provided in Solution figure Overall public satisfaction was initially high from 2006 to the first half of 2008, but dropped in the second half of 2008 and remained low throughout 2009 (which may have prompted the government to take measures to improve their popularity). Overall public satisfaction dropped further from 2010 to 2012, remaining at negative values until the second half of (b) The solution depends on your software and is not shown. Solution figure Overall satisfaction with the government ( ). 676

19 PART 12.2 GOVERNMENT POPULARITY (c) Improvement of people s prosperity is used as an example in Solution figure The general pattern is similar to that of overall satisfaction with the government, with net satisfaction generally decreasing until the second half of 2012, and again in the second half of The increase in the second half of 2012 is larger, which may be expected since the policy is more directly targeted at this aspect of governance (though net satisfaction is still negative). (d) The scheme did not seem to improve government popularity. When the scheme was announced in 2011, popularity dropped even further, and only rose slightly in the second half of 2012 when the scheme s implementation had finished. Satisfaction remained at negative net values until the second half of However, we cannot simply conclude that the scheme caused the drop in government popularity. Other events, such as political scandals, could undermine public support for the government. The government could have pursued other policies that were unpopular with the public, for example lowering the minimum wage, or entering a trade agreement that would disadvantage its citizens. It is also possible for popularity to drop due to unfavourable statistical releases, such as bad economic performance data or high unemployment rates. Solution figure Satisfaction with government s improvement of people s prosperity ( ). 677

20 EMPIRICAL PROJECT 12 SOLUTIONS 4 There are many possible points to discuss, including: Compared to the 2011 scheme, this scheme is targeted more towards needy households (for example, those who are not homeowners or are not earning enough to pay income tax). Another difference is that the amount received depends on need rather than being the same amount for all eligible households. Administrative costs are higher than the 2011 scheme (possibly because of the need to verify and calculate the amount given to each eligible household), and the maximum amount distributed is smaller. 5 An example of an argument for recommending the scheme is provided: The scheme is a visible and tangible way to reduce income inequality, and giving everyone the same lump-sum amount could be seen as being fair, which could improve public satisfaction with the government. However, when the scheme was actually implemented, there were huge administrative costs involved with registering citizens and arranging the payment. To reduce the administrative burden, instead of doing a direct transfer, the payment could take the form of a tax rebate (for taxpayers) and an increase in existing transfers or subsidies (for non-taxpayers). Also, the payment could be adjusted for the number of dependents that the adult has to support: even though the scheme seemed fair since every adult received the same amount, households with more children (who have greater financial needs) received the same amount as married couples without children. An example of an argument for not recommending the scheme is provided: The scheme does not address the root causes of income inequality, so would not affect inequality in the long run. It might be more effective to spend the surplus on providing educational subsidies for low-income households, scholarships for students from low-income households to study at university, or re-training programs for the unemployed. The government could also encourage private-sector firms and richer individuals to help the disadvantaged, for example, by increasing tax rebates for those who donate. 678

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