The Knowledge Problem
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- Bertram James Mills
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1 The Knowledge Problem March 28, 2014 copies of this presentation can be found at 1
2 The Players and the Goals In this experiment, each of you is a member of a community. You have skills with which your produce either 12 units of Red or 12 units of Blue stuff. 2
3 The Players and the Goals You eat both Red and Blue stuff to gain happiness. The more you eat, the happier you are. 3
4 Blue Chips The Players and the Goals Suppose you have 5 Red chips and 4 Blue chips. Your happiness is 123. Red Chips
5 Controlled Economy A benevolent dictator will take the stuff that the people produce and distribute it among the people. The dictator s goal is to maximize the sum of the people s happinesses. 5
6 6
7 Chaos Chaos Free to act Free market Free to act provided you don t harm others All of the stuff you produced is at the front of the room. Come and take what you want. 7
8 Free Market Free to act but you may not violate others property rights. Each person starts with either 12 Blue stuff or 12 Red stuff. You may trade with other people in an attempt to maximize your happiness. 8
9 9
10 Results 10
11 Total Happiness (by economic system) Command Economy Chaos Free Economy 11
12 Total Happiness (by economic system) Command Economy Chaos Free Economy Ideal 12
13 Gini Inequality Index Ukraine Mexico U.S Haiti
14 Command Economy Gini Inequality Index: People Arranged in Order of Happiness (Command Economy) 14
15 Chaos Gini Inequality Index: People Arranged in Order of Happiness (Chaos) 15
16 Free Economy Gini Inequality Index: People Arranged in Order of Happiness (Free Economy) 16
17 Conclusion The knowledge problem prevents the benevolent dictator from achieving the best outcome. 17
18 Conclusion The knowledge problem prevents the benevolent dictator from achieving the best outcome. Corollary Government does have a role to play in protecting property rights. 18
19 Is the experiment a fair representation of the real world? 19
20 Experiment versus Real World Information Experiment: The dictator didn t know what made people happy. Real World: The dictator won t know what makes people happy. Changing Information Experiment: People s preferences were constant. Real World: People s preferences are constantly changing. 20
21 Experiment versus Real World Decisions Experiment: The dictator had to make under 60 decisions in ten minutes 6 per minute. Real World: A dictator would have to make 300 m. x (maybe ten?) = 3 billion decisions daily 2 million per minute. Quantifiability Experiment: The preference data was quantifiable. Real World: Most preferences aren t easily quantifiable. 21
22 Experiment versus Real World Motivation Experiment: The dictator was altruistic. Real World: Good luck with that. Conclusion It should be easier for the dictator to satisfy people s wants in the experiment than in the real world. 22
23 Assumptions About Economic Freedom Command Market Assumptions: Left to themselves, people will consolidate power, stifle competition, exploit each other, and confiscate wealth. Free Market Assumptions: Left to themselves, people will disseminate power, promote competition, cooperate with each other, and create wealth. 23
24 More badness If the command market assumptions were correct, then we would expect to see patterns in the data like this More freedom Freedom 24
25 Less goodness and this. More freedom Freedom 25
26 Economic Freedom of North America Economic Freedom of the World Size of government Government consumption Transfers and subsidies Social Security payments Takings and discriminatory taxes Tax revenue Top marginal income tax rate and threshold Other tax revenues Labor market freedom Minimum wage Public sector employment Union density 26
27 For each year, divide the states into two groups 25 least free 25 most free 27
28 Economic Freedom of North America States Always Among the 25 Least Free States:
29 Economic Freedom of North America States Always Among the 25 Most Free States:
30 Economic Freedom of North America States That Switched Groups At Least Once: Average state switched groups 3 times. 30
31 Employment 31
32 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 32
33 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 33
34 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 34
35 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: 5.8% More free: 5.2% The difference in unemployment rates = 1 million jobs. Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 35
36 Income and Growth 36
37 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 37
38 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 38
39 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 39
40 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: $35,300 More free: $38,000 Median household income averaged $4,000 more in the most free states. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 40
41 Poverty 41
42 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: 13.6% More free: 11.9% The difference in poverty rates = 5 million people living in poverty. Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP and Personal Income Regional Data; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 42
43 Do these results hold across countries?? 43
44 Child Labor 44
45 Economic Freedom of the World (75 reporting countries, ) Less free: 28% More free: 13% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 45
46 Economic Freedom of the World (75 reporting countries, ) Less free: 28% More free: 13% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 46
47 Economic Freedom of the World Big country effect? 47
48 Economic Freedom of the World (45 below median income countries, ) Less free: 36% More free: 17% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 48
49 Economic Freedom of the World (26 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 41% More free: 27% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 49
50 Environment 50
51 Economic Freedom of the World (85 countries, 2007) Less free: 85 More free: 30 Data source: World Health Organization, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 51
52 CO 2 Metric Tons per $1000 GDP Economic Freedom of the World (118 countries, 2000) Less free: 2.5 More free: 0.5 Data source: World Resource Institute (World Bank), Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 52
53 Economic Freedom of the World (136 countries, ) Less free: 7% More free: +7% Data source: Mongabay.com, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 53
54 Economic Freedom of the World Big country effect? 54
55 Economic Freedom of the World (29 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 13% More free: 7% Data source: Mongabay.com, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 55
56 Peace 56
57 Global Peace Index (inverse scale) Economic Freedom of the World (133 countries, 2009) Data source: Institute for Economics and Peace, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 57
58 Global Peace Index (inverse scale) Economic Freedom of the World (133 countries, 2009) Countries that are more free are also more peaceful. Data source: Institute for Economics and Peace, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 58
59 Poverty, and Inequality 59
60 Economic Freedom of the World (79 countries, ) Less free: 59% More free: 17% Data source: World Bank, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 60
61 Economic Freedom of the World Big country effect? 61
62 Economic Freedom of the World (25 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 81% More free: 64% Data source: World Bank, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 62
63 Poverty figures only measure the lower extreme. What about income inequality? 63
64 Per-Capita Income Can Hide Inequality Average = $40,000 Average = $40,
65 No one ever died from income inequality. 65
66 Economic Freedom of the World (123 countries, ) 66
67 Economic Freedom of the World (123 countries, ) Less free: 43 More free: 35 Data source: CIA World Factbook, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 67
68 Economic Freedom of North America That inequality thing happens in the U.S. also! 68
69 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, B19083; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 69
70 Correlation Causation Data don t show that economic freedom causes goodness. 70
71 No Correlation No Causation Data do show that economic freedom doesn t cause badness. 71
72 Conclusions Across states, across countries, and across time, societies with more economic freedom have Less unemployment More income Less poverty Less income inequality Better environmental outcomes 72
73 The Knowledge Problem March 28, 2014 copies of this presentation can be found at
74 But Free people will act selfishly! 74
75 More freedom greater ability to act selfishly, greater ability to harm each other, greater ability to harm the environment. More freedom greater ability to act altruistically, greater ability to help each other, greater ability to protect the environment. 75
76 Appropriate role for government is in preventing people from harming each other. More freedom greater ability to act selfishly, greater ability to harm each other, greater ability to harm the environment. More freedom greater ability to act altruistically, greater ability to help each other, greater ability to protect the environment. 76
77 We have to do something! The rich are getting richer while the poor get poorer! 77
78 U.S. Households According to Income 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $15,000 $15,000 - $25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 $35,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $100,000 Over $100,000 Incomes are in 2009 dollars Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
79 U.S. Households According to Income 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $15,000 $15,000 - $25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 $35,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $100,000 Over $100,000 Incomes are in 2009 dollars Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
80 U.S. Households According to Income 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $15,000 $15,000 - $25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 $35,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $100,000 Over $100,000 Incomes are in 2009 dollars Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
81 U.S. Households According to Income 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $15,000 $15,000 - $25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 $35,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $100,000 Over $100,000 Incomes are in 2009 dollars Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
82 U.S. Households According to Income 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Under $15,000 $15,000 - $25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 $35,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $100,000 Over $100,000 Incomes are in 2009 dollars Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
83 Problems with Inequality Measures Assumes that the pie is fixed. Assumes that the population is stagnant. 83
84 Fraction of Total Income Received by Each Fifth 50% 45% 40% 46.6% 49.7% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% In 2000, the poorest Americans earned 3.8% of all income. 3.8% In 2007, the poorest Americans earned 3.4% of all income. 3.4% 0% Poorest Lowest Quintile Highest Richest Quintile Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, Table
85 Fraction of Total Income Received by Each Fifth 50% 45% 40% 46.6% 49.7% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% The Pie Isn t Fixed 2000 RGDP = $11,216 b. x 3.8% = $425 b RGDP = $13,206 b. x 3.4% = $450 b. 10% 5% 3.8% 3.4% 0% Poorest Lowest Quintile Highest Richest Quintile Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, Table
86 Average Age In 2000, the youngest Americans were 7.1 years old. In 2010, the youngest Americans were 6.9 years old Youngest Lowest Quintile Highest Oldest Quintile Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, Tables 8,
87 Average Age The Population Isn t Stagnant The young grew up and were replaced Youngest Lowest Quintile Highest Oldest Quintile Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, Tables 8,
88 Inequality and the Gini-Coefficient Line up people from poorest to richest. Total income = $1 million These people earn a total of $200,000 These people earn a total of $400,000 These people earn a total of $300,000 These people earn a total of $100,
89 Inequality and the Gini-Coefficient Line up people from poorest to richest. Total income = $1 million These people earn 20% of all income. These people earn 40% of all income. These people earn 30% of all income. These people earn 10% of all income. 89
90 Inequality and the Gini-Coefficient Line up people from poorest to richest. Total income = $1 million These people earn 20% of all income. These people earn 40% of all income. These people earn 30% of all income. These people earn 10% of all income. 90
91 Median Income Within Each Quintile (2006$) $120,000 $100,000 25% 0% $80,000 $60,000 $40, % 52% 27% $20,000 $0 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Parents Children Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project 91
92 Median Income Within Each Quintile (2006$) $120,000 $100,000 25% 0% $80,000 $60,000 $40, % 52% 27% $20,000 $0 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Parents Children Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project 92
93 Median Income Within Each Quintile (2006$) $120,000 $100,000 25% 0% $80,000 $60,000 $40, % + 52% 27% $20,000 $0 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Parents Children Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project 93
94 Median Income Within Each Quintile (2006$) $120,000 $100,000 25% 0% $80,000 $60,000 $40, % + 52% + 27% $20,000 $0 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Parents Children Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project 94
95 Median Income Within Each Quintile (2006$) $120,000 $100, % + 0% $80,000 $60,000 $40, % + 52% + 27% $20,000 $0 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Parents Children Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project 95
96 Employment Measures Population Non-working age population Working age population Institutionalized Non-institutionalized Non-employed Labor Force Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate = Unemployed / Labor Force 96
97 Employment Measures Population Non-working age population Working age population Institutionalized Non-employed Non-institutionalized Labor Force Unemployment Rate = 10 / 100 = 10% 90 people employed Unemployed Employed Suppose 2 unemployed people become discouraged. 97
98 Employment Measures Population Non-working age population Working age population Institutionalized Non-employed Non-institutionalized Labor Force = = 98 Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate = 8 / 98 = 8.2% 10 2 = 8 90 Unemployment rate drops from 10% to 8.2%, yet the same 90 people are working. 98
99 Employment Measures Reported unemployment rate Data Source: freelunch.com 99
100 Employment Measures Unemployment rate after adding back discouraged workers The Year of Weirdness Reported unemployment rate Data Source: freelunch.com 100
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