Acadia Pharmaceuticals. Daniel Berrios, Xianming Li, Ryan Matsumoto, Sunny Huang, Kojo Osei, Ariana Bhatia

Transcription

1 Acadia Pharmaceuticals Daniel Berrios, Xianming Li, Ryan Matsumoto, Sunny Huang, Kojo Osei, Ariana Bhatia

2 Introduction: ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals ACAD Small cap, relatively young, bio pharmaceutical company Price (2/15/15): $37.78 Founded: 1993 Headquarters: San Diego, CA Market Cap: $3.41bil Employees: 95 ACAD stock performance from 2013 to present, image from Yahoo Finance Our Investment Thesis: Despite risks associated with small cap, high volatility stocks, we believe ACAD has a high chance of success, far beyond their peers, given their impending FDA approval for Pimavanserin and their niche position in the Parkinson s and Alzheimers market.

3 Healthcare Industry Overview Consolidation Mergers and acquisitions of hospitals/health care systems/physician groups Incentives Economies of scale Hospitals can increase prices ACA care coordination Implications Rising healthcare costs 3% higher payments to hospitals Tax Inversion Companies shift incorporation abroad to avoid US tax rates Taking advantage of lower foreign tax rates 9 out of 13 deals relating to tax inversion are in health care US: 35% Ireland 12.5% September 2014: U.S. Treasury curtailed tax breaks from international deals Niche Drugs Orphan Drug Act of 1983 provides financial incentive for investigating rare disease treatments Blockbuster drugs more difficult to develop Potential for small market monopolies Larger companies have been acquiring startups to move into niche markets Trending towards nichebuster rather than blockbuster drugs

4 Government Policies / Population Trends Population Trends Affordable Care Act Uninsured rate dropped from 18% to 12.9% 11 million+ more people have insurance 67% from Medicaid expansion 33% from insurance exchanges Figure expected to grow in future Implication -> Increased demand for prescription drugs for newly insured Implication -> New enrollees, gov t taxes could decrease profit margins for insurance companies Lower Medicare reimbursements to hospitals -> Pressure for M&A People ages % of the U.S. population in % of the U.S. population in 2030 (projected) Medicare enrollment 47.7 million seniors in million seniors in 2030 (projected) Parkinson s Disease Average age of onset is 60 1 million Americans Parkinson s Induced Psychosis affects 1 in 5 Parkinson s patients

5 Management Team CEO (2000): Uli Hacksell 1991 to 1999: Executive positions at Astra (pharmaceutical company) PhD in Medicinal Chemistry from Uppsala University Executive Vice President (2014): Stephen R. Davis Chief Financial Officer and Chief Business Officer Previously an executive at Heron Therapeutics, Ardea Biosciences, Neurogen Corporation (CEO) Executive Vice President (2006): Roger G. Mills Executive VP of Development, Chief Medical Officer Previously VP of Development at Pfizer Global R&D Key role in development of Sutent at Pfizer, Tamiflu at Gilead Sciences Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer (2013): Terrence O. Moore 25 years of experience as senior member of sales and marketing at several pharmaceutical companies Helped build multibillion dollar brands including Prozac, Zyprexa, and Effexor XR Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary (2004): Glenn F. Baity Previously a senior associate at Cooley LLP, experience with M&A, financings, corporate governance

6 Strengths Nuplazid (Pimavanserin): Currently working towards Stage IV FDA approval for Parkinson s disease Breakthrough Therapy Designation by FDA Market size for effective Parkinson s treatment: 1 mil U.S., 4-6 mil globally Potential applications in both Alzheimer's as well as Schizophrenia, both of which stage II approved, working towards stage III Stock Sales Early 2014 as well as in 2013 multiple stock sales have resulted in good balance sheet figures $355 million in cash Projected enough for Pimavanserin development and general costs through 2017 Robust Pipeline...

7 Strengths: Pipeline Image from

8 Risks Future value priced in $2.18 in Oct. 2012, $34.21 as of 2/15/15 Stock s value entirely dependent on future approval of Pimavanserin and stock price has already risen significantly No earnings currently Stock volatility due to trial success & regulatory approval 2009 previous trial failure due to high placebo results and drug deficiencies Stock dove from nearly $16 in 2006 to a low of $0.67 in 2010 Risk capital stock Future Competition Models and revenue projections do not acknowledge potential for future competition Widespread assumption that ACAD would dominate Parkinson s market for at least next 5-7 years

9 Competitor Environment Neurocrine - Two stage three products; none NDA filed; none directly applied to psychotics. Not likely to detract from Nuplazid market share. Stemline Therapeutics Inc. - Products focused on cancer treatment. Also not likely to affect Nuplazid sales. In terms of drug similarity: AstraZeneca Eli Lilly Janssen All have similar drugs with black box warnings due to side effects.

10 Comparables Analysis Summary of Results Comparables pose a difficult approach for Acadia and its competitors because they are all early-stage Earnings somewhat irrelevant because all these companies are reinvesting for growth, with high R&D, but Acadia is moving in the right direction Looking at management effectiveness comps, such as return on assets/equity, can be more telling, and Acadia leads here *As of 2/26/15 Key Comparables Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Price = $37.78 Market Cap = $3.77B Revenue = 0.11M EPS = -$0.80 (ttm) Return on Assets (Equity) = % (-29.79%) (ttm) Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Price = $40.05 Market Cap = $3.09B Revenue = N/A EPS = -$0.81 (ttm) Return on Assets (Equity) = % (-36.79%) (ttm) Stemline Therapeutics (STML) Price = $16.20 Market Cap = $209.94M Revenue = $0.28M EPS = -$2.30 (ttm) Return on Assets (Equity) = % (-40.11%) (ttm) Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) Price = $17.50 Market Cap = $460.13M Revenue = $11.60M EPS = -$3.51 (ttm) Return on Assets (Equity) = % (-84.02%) (ttm)

11 M&A s, Precedent Transactions Drivers of M&A Expand market share Technology 96 deals worth more than $5bn completed over the past 12 months-- 37% of the overall volume of corporate transactions. Tax strategies Selected Transactions Kindred Healthcare acquired Gentiva ($7/share, 64% premium) Gilead s acquisition of YMI BioSciences ($2.95/share, 81% premium) Potential Effects Recently, larger companies have more to spend on research development Fewer hospital and provider options for patients Given premiums of recent transactions, expect Acadia s share price to increase if acquired Approval of new PDP drug makes Acadia an attractive acquisition target Potential acquirer: AbbVie

12 DCF Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Several numbers from Jefferies Analyst Report

13 Recommendation Price Target: $62 Sell: Phase 4 FDA approval of Pimavanserin fails or price falls below $20 Time Horizon: months

14 Questions