ROBUST OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
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1 ROBUST OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE Results presentation: H1 FY18 Half year ended 30 September December 2017
2 DISCLAIMER NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN This presentation and its contents may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part for any purpose without the consent of OPG ( OPG ). Having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case, the information contained in this presentation is, to the best of the knowledge and belief of the Directors of OPG, in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its import. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities, or a proposal to make a takeover bid in any jurisdiction. Neither this document nor the fact of its distribution nor the making of the presentation constitutes a recommendation regarding any securities. This presentation is being provided to you for information purposes only. Certain statements, beliefs and opinions contained in this presentation, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future financial or other performance of OPG, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forwardlooking terminology, including the terms believes, estimates, anticipates, expects, intends, plans, goal, target, aim, may, will, would, could or should or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may be beyond OPG s ability to control or predict. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. No representation is made that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast result will be achieved. Neither OPG, nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this presentation will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place reliance on these forward-looking statements. OPG is not under any obligation and OPG expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. No statement in this presentation is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per OPG share. The distribution of this presentation or any information contained in it may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, and any person into whose possession any document containing this presentation or any part of it comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with such restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of any such jurisdiction. By attending the presentation and/or accepting or accessing this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations and conditions and will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this notice.
3 A TRACK RECORD OF GROWTH A developer and operator of power plants in India with a track record of delivery and growth CAPACITY (MW) IPO FY 08 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16/17* FY 18E FY 20E * Excluding legacy assets of 36MW from FY17 onwards 3
4 HIGHLIGHTS
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Total Generation 2.39 billion units Robust operational performance Gujarat PLF up to 81%; Chennai PLF 73% Revenue 114m; EBITDA 22m Significant progress on TN & Gujarat receivables Gearing of 55% (FY17: 55%) INR Net debt lower by Rs1 billion GBP Net debt lower 35m 62 MW Solar projects are on track for commissioning in FY18 5
6 70% 73% 63% 78% 81% 2,389 3,347 4,367 MAXIMISING EXISTING ASSETS OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE GENERATION (GWH) FY16 FY17 H1FY18 CHENNAI PLF* (%) GUJARAT PLF* (%) FY16 FY17 H1FY18 *includes deemed generation * COD 1 Feb 2016 FY17 H1FY18 6
7 FINANCIALS
8 RESULTS KEY PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS Half Year ended 30 th Sep ( m) H1 FY18 H1 FY17 FY17 Operational Units produced* 2,389 2,371 4,367 Average tariff (INR/kWh) Financial Revenue EBITDA Interest (19.5) (18.2) (38.8) PBT (2.9) Net debt Ratios (Loss)/Earnings Per Share (pence) (0.76) Net Cash from Operating activities Net Cash used in Investing activities (incl purchase of investments) (4.30) (4.06) 5.14 (Decrease)/Increase in Net Borrowings (22.2) * includes deemed generation PLF Increase from 70% in FY17 to 77% in H1 FY18 A decrease in EBITDA and PBT margins is primarily due to sustained higher coal prices Investment includes 3.2m in solar & shipping JV INR Net debt lower by Rs1 bn ( 12m) and Fx movement of approx.10% 8
9 (3) (0.76) REPORTED EARNINGS OUR TRACK RECORD REVENUES ( M) EBITDA ( M) H1 FY18 margins were under pressure due to higher coal prices FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY17 H1 FY18 PROFIT/(LOSS) BEFORE TAX ( M) (PRE- EXCEPTIONAL ITEMS) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY17 H1 FY18 EARNINGS/ (LOSS) PER SHARE ( PENCE) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY17 H1 FY18 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY17 H1 FY18 9
10 NET DEBT & GEARING INR Net Debt lower by Rs1 bn ( 12m) Fx changes reduced Net Debt further 17m cash collections from TANGEDCO incl 8m due as at 31 Mar 16 Net Debt* as at (millions) 30 Sep Mar 17 INR 23,487 24,585 :INR ex-rate GBP ( ) GEARING % 57% 55% 55% FY16 FY17 H1 FY18 10 FY17 & H1FY18 : Net debt : Long term Borrowings + Short Term Borrowings less Cash & Cash Equivalents (including pledged Restricted cash)
11 62 MW SOLAR PROJECT CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESS 62 MW solar project construction in progress and is on track for commissioning in FY18 Civil works commenced Installation preparation work is on-going Imported PV modules delivery commenced from suppliers. Transmission network approval in place 124MW in pipeline; LOI signed & PPA awaited 11
12 GUJARAT UPDATE Gujarat s Group Captive status confirmed for FY18 Approval received from Chief Electrical Inspector of Gujarat confirming its Group Captive status for FY18 Company expects that the amounts delayed for FY18 (approx. 5m) will be recovered principally in the current year Dialogue ongoing on Group Captive status for FY16 and FY17 Receivables outstanding (Amounts withheld) 31.4 million as at 30th September million as at 31st March 2017 Gujarat Interest payments 3.9 million of interest overdue to term loan lenders due to amounts withheld by Discoms (as above) Enabling Gujarat to enter into Corrective Action Plan ( CAP ) CAP process is well established by RBI and is designed to assist borrowers in the rescheduling and/or restructuring of its long term loans CAP process should enable OPGG to better match the cash flows from the Gujarat plant with its debt obligations 12
13 STRONG FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN ECONOMY & POWER SECTOR
14 INDIA POWER SECTOR EXPECTED GROW IN LINE WITH GDP Underlying macro economics remain strong India s GDP increased to 6.3% in Q2 FY18 from 5.7% in Q1 FY18 ; (FY17-7%) GDP Forecasted to grow 7-8% annually over the next 3 4 years Improved credit outlook Moody s upgraded India s sovereign Bond rating to Baa2 from Baa3 Power sector demand forecast robust Target of Power for All now by 2019 (2020 previously) Per capita demand growing by 8% per annum UDAY Reforms drive tariff increases to improve financial position of & demand by Discoms Key Objective to reduce revenue - cost realisation gap Average Cost and Revenue Gap of approx. Rs 0.47 in FY 17 (9 Months); FY 16: Rs 0.56 Tariff increases by many states including Tamil Nadu TANGEDCO tariff increases of avg 6% under a MoU with the Ministry of Power for FY18-19 across all categories of consumers 14
15 INDIA: DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION INCREASES COAL INDIA S DOMESTIC PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE 660 MT in FY18 up from 554 MT in FY17 1 billion tonnes by 2020 New railway capacity & high speed freight corridor underway to improve logistics New policy SHAKTI to improve coal availability Mt INDIAN COAL IMPORTS REDUCE AS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION INCREASES REDUCED COAL IMPORTS DUE TO INCREASE IN DOMESTIC PRODUCTION Recent price hike in imported coal prices sees shut down of some coastal plants 50 0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E Source: ICRA Research
16 INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN VOLATILE Current Chinese domestic coal price approx. 700 RMB for 5500 NAR /5750 GAR; China policy measures to bring coal prices within RMB band (Approx $70-75 adjusted for tax & freight) Long term consensus forecasts expect coal prices to decrease by 30% USD/t Source: Argus, Bloomberg Avg Price Indo coal : FY17 $36 Current year: $43 NEWC Indonesian Coal Index 4200 GAR Newcastle Coal Price (US$/t) Consensus Forecast Source: Consensus Economics Nov 17
17 OUTLOOK
18 OUR PRIORITIES Areas Plan Actions during the year Cash flows Maximise cashflows from existing assets Higher PLF & generation Gujarat Group Captive resolution Tangedco collection of receivables Safety & Environment Performance Sustainable & Responsible Growth Maintain internal standards - exceeding regulator Continued improvement in Total Reported Injury Rate 62 MW of solar projects being developed Plan for 300 MW renewables in 5 years Augment long term dividend strategy Maintain discipline and position for attractive growth opportunities Exceeding in most parameters Zero TRIR achieved in Chennai & Gujarat (FY17: Chennai 0 ; Gujarat 0.23) 62 MW in construction 18
19 APPENDIX
20 INDIA POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW ALL INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY C.329 GW (FUEL WISE BREAKDOWN) Coal 59% Gas 8% Hydro 14% Nuclear Other Solar 2% 3% 4% Wind 10%..TO MEET DEMAND AND MATCH WORLD PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (KWH) 13, ,010 1,075 2,438 4,604 5,945 6,486 India (FY12) India (FY13) India (FY14) India (FY15) India (FY16) Brazil South Africa China Russia US Source: CEA, World Bank 20
21 OPG S REVENUE MODEL GROUP CAPTIVE FLEXIBLE - GROUP CAPTIVE Uncapped ROE Variable term and market pricing Tiered Pricing: Industry paying highest, rural & agriculture rates are subsidized (INR/kWh) 8.4 Flexibility as to customers Meeting demands of high tension, industrial consumer Reliability of provision of power State utility 8.4 TN : High tension 21 Generator Industrial Consumer HT III Commercial Establishments HT IA Industrial Establishments: 0.00 HT IB Railway Traction, Educational institutions LT IIA Public services: L TIIB(1) Govt Educational Institutions, Hospitals LT IC Govt PSU domestic housing: L TIIC Places of Worship LT IA Domestic, Charitable & Handlooms LT IB Villages & agriculture Source: TNERC Dec 14
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