3.3.9 Saithe (Pollachius virens) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

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1 Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea Ecoregions Published 10 June Saithe (Pollachius virens) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic) ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the Norwegian management plan is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than t. Bycatches of coastal cod (Gadus morhua) and golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) in fisheries targeting saithe in subareas 1 and 2 should be kept as low as possible. Stock development over time The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has shown wide fluctuations and has been above Bpa since 1996 The fishing pressure (F) has been below Fpa since 1997, with the exception of 2010 and Recruitment (R) has fluctuated with no clear trend. Figure Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Historical development of the stock from the summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand tonnes). Recruitment (R), fishing pressure (F), and spawning-stock biomass (SSB) have uncertainty boundaries (95%) in the plots. Predicted recruitment values are not shaded. For this stock, SSB MGT = B pa; therefore, the horizontal lines representing these points in the graph overlap. Stock and exploitation status Table Maximum sustainable yield Precautionary approach Management plan Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points. Fishing pressure Stock size F MSY Undefined MSY B trigger Undefined F pa, F lim Harvested sustainably B pa, B lim F MGT Below SSB MGT Above Full reproductive capacity ICES Advice 2016, Book 3 1

2 Published 10 June 2016 Catch forecast and outlook Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch options. Variable Value Source Notes F ages 4 7 (2016) 0.28 ICES (2016a) TAC constraint SSB(2017) 366 kt ICES (2016a) R age3 (2016 onwards) 157 million ICES (2016a) Geometric mean ( ) Total catch (2016) 140 kt ICES (2016a) TAC Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The catch options. Weights are in thousand tonnes. Rationale Catches (2017) Basis F (2017) SSB (2018) % SSB change * % TAC change ** Management plan 150 F MP Precautionary approach 169 F pa Zero catch 0 F = F sq(2016) Other options 138 F sq(2016) F sq(2016) * SSB 2018 relative to SSB ** Catch in 2017 relative to TAC Basis of the advice Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the assessment and advice. Advice basis Norwegian management plan. Management plan The harvest control rule as revised in 2013 and communicated to ICES by the Norwegian Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs contains the following elements: * Fmp was formerly Estimate the average TAC level for the coming 3 years based on F mp= 0.32*. TAC for the next year will be set to this level as a starting value for the 3-year period. The year after, the TAC calculation for the next 3 years is repeated based on the updated information about the stock development. However, the TAC should not be changed by more than +/ 15% compared with the previous year s TAC. If the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of the year for which the quota is set (first year of prediction), is below B pa, the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from F mp at SSB = B pa to 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB levels below B pa in any of the operational years (current year and 3 years of prediction) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC. 2 ICES Advice 2016, Book 3

3 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Published 10 June 2016 Quality of the assessment The low level of biological sampling of commercial catches continued to be an issue in 2015 and will affect the precision of the catch-, weight-, and maturity-at-age data. Poor sampling of commercial catches is impairing the quality of the assessment and the advice. Because reliable recruitment estimates are lacking, predicted catches are dependent upon assumptions of average recruitment. Recreational catches are not included in the assessment. Figure Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Historical assessment results (final-year recruitment estimates included). The year 2013 is omitted because no assessment was accepted. The assessment model changed from XSA to SAM in Issues relevant for the advice Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) saithe has as a bycatch golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) and is considerable part of the total catch. This bycatch of golden redfish is still far above any sustainable catch level. Measures to minimise bycatch levels are essential. Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to obtain the reductions in fishing mortality implied by the coastal cod (Gadus morhua) rebuilding plan (ICES, 2010). Reference points Table Framework MSY approach Precautionary approach Management plan Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis. Reference point Value Technical basis Reference MSY B trigger Not defined. F MSY Not defined. B lim 136 kt Change point in segmented regression. ICES (2005) B pa 220 kt B lim exp(1.645 σ), where σ = 0.3. ICES (2005) F lim 0.58 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = B lim. ICES (2005) F pa 0.35 F lim exp( σ), where σ = 0.3. ICES (2005) SSB MGT 220 kt B pa, F is linearly reduced from F pa at SSB = B pa to zero at SSB = 0. ICES (2011) F MP 0.32 Average TAC for the coming three years based on F MP. ICES (2011) ICES Advice 2016, Book 3 3

4 Published 10 June 2016 Basis of the assessment Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the assessment. ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2016b) Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2016a) that uses landings in the model and in the forecast. Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from Norwegian, German, Input data and Russian catch sampling); one survey index (NOcoast-Aco-4Q, split in 2002); three-year running average maturity based on spawning zones from otoliths from commercial catches and surveys for , constant ( average) for later years. Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible. Bycatch is included. Indicators None Other information An inter-benchmark was undertaken in 2014 (ICES IBP NEA SAITHE; ICES, 2014). Working group Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) Information from stakeholders There is no available information. 4 ICES Advice 2016, Book 3

5 ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Published 10 June 2016 History of the advice, catch, and management Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of ICES advice, the agreed TAC, and ICES estimates of landings. Weights are in thousand tonnes. Year ICES advice Predicted catch Agreed Official ICES corresp. to TAC* landings landings advice 1987 No increase in F; TAC; protect juveniles No increase in F < Status quo F; TAC F F med; TAC F at F low; TAC Within safe biological limits Within safe biological limits 132 # No increase in F 158 # No increase in F 221 # No increase in F 158 # Reduction of F to F med or below Reduction of F to F med or below ## Reduce F below F pa ### Reduce F below F pa ^ Reduce F below F pa < Maintain F below F pa < ^^ Maintain F below F pa < Maintain F below F pa < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below F pa < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below F pa < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below F pa < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below F hcr < 247 < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan < Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan < Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan. < Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan. < ^^^ Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Stabilize SSB. < ^^^ Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch. Apply management plan. < Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch. Apply management plan. < Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch. Apply management plan. 150 # Predicted catch at status quo F. ## TAC first set at t, then increased in May 1998 after an intersessional assessment. ### TAC set after an intersessional assessment in December ^ TAC set after an intersessional assessment in December ^^ TAC first set at t, then increased in June 2003 after the spring 2002 assessment. ^^^ Set by Norwegian authorities based on national advice where cpue was excluded from the assessment. * TAC set by Norwegian authorities. ** Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus. From 2015 it was decided to adopt the species list by WoRMS ( The name used for this species will hence hereafter be Sebastes norvegicus. ICES Advice 2016, Book 3 5

6 Published 10 June 2016 History of catch and landings Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Catch distribution by fleet in 2015 as estimated by ICES. Total catch (2015) Commercial landings Discards Recreational catch 23% 18% 17% Discarding is 42% trawl Unknown, but not 132 kt purse-seine gillnet other gear types considered to be negligible 132 kt negligible 6 ICES Advice 2016, Book 3

7 Published 10 June 2016 Table Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. History of commercial landings. ICES estimated values are presented for each country participating in the fishery. Weights are in tonnes. Year Faroes France Greenland Germany Dem. Rep Fed. Rep. Germany Iceland Norway Poland Portugal Russian Federation*** Spain UK Others^^ Total all countries ** ** ICES Advice 2016, Book 3 7

8 Published 10 June 2016 Year Faroes France Greenland Germany Dem. Rep Fed. Rep. Germany Iceland Norway Poland Portugal Russian Federation*** Spain UK Others^^ Total all countries ** ^ ** ** ** ** 1640** 655** ** ** ** ** ** ** 655** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ^^^ 290** * * Provisional figures. ** As reported to Norwegian authorities. *** USSR prior to ^ Includes Estonia. ^^ Includes Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland, and Sweden. ^^^ As reported by Working Group members. 8 ICES Advice 2016, Book 3

9 Published 10 June 2016 Summary of the assessment Table Year Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. CI = confidence interval. Recruitment Age 3 thousands SSB Landings Mean F Ages ICES Advice 2016, Book 3 9

10 Published 10 June 2016 Year Recruitment Age 3 thousands SSB Landings Mean F Ages * Average *Predicted (GM ). Sources and references ICES Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), April 2005, Murmansk, Russia. ICES CM 2005/ACFM: pp. ICES Request by the Norwegian ministry of fisheries and coastal affairs: Evaluation of a rebuilding plan for coastal cod. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, ICES Advice 2010, Book 3, Section ICES Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 28 April 4 May 2011, Hamburg, Germany. ICES CM 2011/ACOM: pp. ICES Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol on Northeast Arctic Saithe in Subareas I and II (IBP NEAsaithe), March/April 2014, by correspondence. ICES CM 2014/ACOM: pp. ICES. 2016a. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), April 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:06. ICES. 2016b. General context of ICES advice. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section ICES Advice 2016, Book 3