Glasgow (New) College Merger Business Case

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1 Glasgow (New) College Merger Business Case Final (Dr 9.1) (Model dr ) 5 th June 2013

2 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary Business Case Document structure Glasgow (New) College Base Case narrative Key financial information Glasgow (New) College forecast I&E account Glasgow (New) College forecast Balance Sheet Glasgow (New) College forecast Cashflow Risk analysis Appendices Appendix 1: Base Case model development process Appendix 2: Base Case model core data Appendix 3: Management actions to improve the financial position Appendix 4: Other key assumptions Appendix 5: Alternative scenarios and sensitivities final - gnc buscase dr docx 2

3 1. Executive Summary The Business Case for the Glasgow (New) College considers the inputs and assumptions utilised when developing the Base Case financial model and summarises the expected financial effect of the merger process and subsequent operation of the College. The Business Case does not detail the strategies and plans to implement the changes required, but it does provide a guide to the scale of activity and the costs and savings that should occur if management actions are undertaken. 1.1 Key Messages The three merging colleges produced an operating surplus of 0.1m in the year ended July 2012; this is forecast to reduce to a deficit of 0.1m, prior to merger costs, in The Business Case considers the potential effect of changes in core grant funding. The Base Case assumes a 0.6% reduction in core grant funding in with no further core funding reductions in cash terms (flat cash). A cash decrease in core grant of 0.1m is expected in , exacerbated by an expected reduction in non-core funding of 1.2m including the removal of ESF funding of 0.4m. The impact of the funding reductions would be a projected deficit in , before management action, of 1.4m. The College will seek to increase income arising from international activity by 0.1m over the period The College will need to reduce costs. Staff cost savings of 3.6m are required to cope with the combined effects of income reduction and inflationary expense including harmonisation costs. This process will be managed through a voluntary severance programme to deliver the saving required and avoid any compulsory redundancies. The model assumes the removal of 86 roles (16% of workforce) over a three year period. This is expected to comprise 26 teaching roles, 34 support roles and 26 management roles. In the new College will be expected to deliver 4.9% extra activity compared to despite a core funding reduction of 0.6%. This represents a significant challenge during a period of change where staff reductions will be required. The cost of the initial merger activity is estimated at 5.8m (+facilitation costs already funded of 0.3m) and the College is seeking merger funding from SFC of 4.6m with the balance funded from reserves. It is expected that SFC will as part of the merger process provide investment for the development of an appropriate Student Association function in keeping with the scale and complexity of the new college final - gnc buscase dr docx 3

4 The Base Case targets financial viability (1% surplus on turnover and positive operating cashflow) from 2016 to enable future operation and investment. The key merger related risks to Base Case delivery are summarised in the table below. The biggest financial risk will arise if the College is unable to achieve the level of job reductions required. The alternative scenarios are discussed in more detail within Appendix Alternative Scenarios: Surplus \ Deficit Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Base Case ( 77) ( 1,193) 674 1, Delayed VS profile ( 77) ( 1,827) 668 1, Reduce Teaching job reductions to 3% ( 77) ( 1,430) ( 116) 245 ( 126) ( 502) Reduce other income growth by 125k p.a. ( 77) ( 1,318) The Base Case indicates that the College will be financially sustainable post-merger. 1.2 Key Assumptions The Business Case has been developed against a background of uncertain core grant funding and a desire to focus Further Education resources into more specific areas of provision. The production of a robust Business Case is difficult during a time of rapid change and uncertain finances. Reality is always different from the plan but the development process has enabled management to quantify the key merger issues and the delivery risks to be managed within the merger process. A Base Business Case has been developed and is described within Section 3 of this document. The intention of the Base Case is to identify the scale of the actions required for Glasgow (New) College to be sustainable post-merger. The Vesting Date for the College is assumed as 1 st November An estimate of the financial effect of proposed actions and the other external factors has been captured within the financial model. The core grant income reduction of 0.6% ( 0.1m) for with a flat cash position thereafter reflects management estimates based upon SFC and government guidance. The estimates of future non-core grant, Commercial and International income are based on the latest management guidance available. This is discussed in more detail in Appendix 3.1. In order for the College to remain viable the Base Case reflects reductions in staffing and other operational costs. Detailed assumptions for each area of reduction covered in Appendices The Base Case also considers the costs of merger, the requirement for future investment in Fixed Assets and the likely changes in key external factors. These are considered within Appendix 4. final - gnc buscase dr docx 4

5 1.3 Base Case: Key Outputs The Base Case seeks to demonstrate that the College can build a sustainable financial position post-merger. The scale of key merger activities and merger funding is summarised below together with a forecast of the College s key financial metrics Staff reductions The expected level of core grant reduction combined with inflationary and harmonisation pressures on internal and external costs will require management action to reduce costs across the College. The process of managing change will be managed through a voluntary severance programme. Using average staff cost per FTE to provide an indication of the number of roles affected, it has been assumed that there will be a 50% reduction in senior management staff together with a reduction of 35% in both academic and corporate management. There will be a 17% reduction in support roles and a 9% reduction in teaching roles. For the purposes of this exercise senior lecturers are classified as teaching staff. In order to assess the possible impact of staffing reductions the table below sets out a possible reduction scenario; B\F position Job reductions (Cumulative) pre VS activity Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Teaching - occur at start of financial year cost saving K cumulative 12, ,142 1,142 1,142 1,142 Management cost saving K 4, ,635 1,635 1,635 1,635 Non teaching cost saving K 4, Total job reductions no cost saving K 21,577 1,363 3,608 3,608 3,608 3,608 In total the reduction equates to c. 86 roles with 30 scheduled removed prior to Vesting Day. The timing of these changes may shift based on scheme uptake This activity will deliver a saving of 3.6m in College staff costs. The reductions are summarised below and discussed in detail in Appendix Merger Funding In order to reduce staff numbers, the individual colleges will commence a VS programme pre-merger ( ) with further severance schemes assumed to occur post Vesting. The Base Case assumes that the cost of severance will equate, on average, to one years salary and this activty will be funded by SFC over the period The cost of the merger implementation is estimated at 5.8m (+facilitation costs already funded by SFC of 0.3m) and the College is seeking merger funding from SFC of 4.6m. The timing of expenditure is detailed in Appendix 4.1. final - gnc buscase dr docx 5

6 The application for transformation funding included an amount of 0.5m to cover part of the cost of harmonising staff terms and conditions. This activity has been identified as a separate recurring cost in the Base Case and is discussed in Appendix 3.4. In addition the College unsuccessfully requested 0.3m of support for investment in essential business and enterprise activity. The application included these items in its estimate of merger implementation cost of 6.6m. Removal of these items takes the cost down to 5.8m as set out in the paragraph above and reflected in the Base Case Financial Performance Assuming the colleges were operating as one entitiy, an operating suplus of 0.1m would have been generated in the year ending The latest forecasts produced for estimate a deficit of 0.1m for the year, prior to any merger costs arising that are not funded by the SFC. The Base Case reflects the core funding reductions, staff changes and merger funding discussed in Sections 1.2 and 1.3 above. The College will need to invest 1.2m of its own financial resources to defray merger costs in excess of SFC funding. This will cover some the most of cost of IT and other integration activities. The Base Case assumes that 0.2m will be spent on integration activity prior to Vesting Day. This will include rebranding and intial work to develop common and telephony platforms aacross the campuses. Section 4 contains detailed forecasts covering the I&E, Balance Sheet and cashflow performance of the College. The table below summarises the key financial metrics; I&E Account Total Income - excl. merger support 36,823 33,053 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 Surplus \ (deficit) pre merger exceptionals 76 ( 77) ( 646) 1,308 1, Merger related Exceptional costs - - ( 547) ( 634) Surplus \ (Deficit) post exceptionals 76 ( 77) ( 1,193) 674 1, Surplus as a % of Turnover 0.2% -0.2% -3.4% 2.1% 3.3% 2.1% 1.0% Balance Sheet I&E Reserves 8,259 8,182 6,989 7,663 8,706 9,387 9,700 Pension Deficit ( 6,270) ( 6,270) ( 6,270) ( 6,270) ( 6,270) ( 6,270) ( 6,270) I&E Reserves less Pension Deficit 1,989 1, ,393 2,436 3,117 3,430 Net Current Assets less Lennartz VAT liability 3,908 4,434 3,844 4,280 5,237 5,832 6,059 The total income of the college will fall by 3% over the planning period. The increase in commercial and international income will partially offset the reductions in core grant income, non-core grant income and ESF funding. If costs are reduced in line with the Base Case assumptions the College will generate an operating surplus through most of the merger process, prior to the application of excess merger costs. An overall accounting surplus is generated from but management will continue to require efficiencies to cope with internal and external inflationary pressures. final - gnc buscase dr docx 6

7 The College I&E Reserves reduce in the early years of the plan as the effect of the grant reductions feeds through as losses within the I&E a\c. This position improves in the later years of the plan. The Base Case assumes that the merger process is unlikely to materially affect the outstanding pension liabilities within the Balance Sheet. These are substantial and relevant when considering the long term financial health of the College. Assuming no change in the current position covering the pension liability of 6.3m will use 65% of the Colleges 2018 forecast free reserves of 9.7m. final - gnc buscase dr docx 7

8 2. Business Case Document structure The purpose of this document is to summarise the process, content, inputs, and assumptions utilised within the Business Case for the new college that will be formed by the merger of John Wheatley College, North Glasgow College and Stow College. The new college is referred to as Glasgow (New) College or the College throughout this document. This document does not detail the strategies and plans required to implement the changes; these will be documented within the specific functional strategy documents. The Business Case document is structured as follows; Section 3 provides a narrative outline of the Base Case merger scenario (what happens and when). Section 4 provides summarised forecast financial information covering I&E, Balance Sheet and cash flow out-turns supporting the Base Case narrative. Section 5 considers the major risks to the achievement of the Base Case and actions that could be taken to mitigate the financial effects of the risks. The appendices provide detailed information to support the Base Case and sensitivities; Appendix 1 provides a background to the financial model and its development process. Appendix 2 includes the detailed financial information for each college together with a merged position. Appendix 3 includes the analysis of the cost and benefits arising from the management activities outlined in Section 3. Appendix 4 provides details on the key external economic and financial assumptions underpinning the Base Case. Appendix 5 considers alternative scenarios that may arise and the key financial and economic sensitivities that need to be considered. final - gnc buscase dr docx 8

9 3. Glasgow (New) College Base Case narrative 3.1 Yr Pre-merger actions The colleges will prepare for a reduction of c.0.6% in core grant funding for the year The Principal Designate will be appointed in anticipation of merger. The colleges will implement a VS process which will be open to all staff. The VS costs will arise within the individual colleges and SFC funding will be allocated to each college as appropriate. The process for selection and management of the VS candidates will be managed centrally. The intention will be to release the majority of staff applying from the colleges by the end of July Some staff may need to stay into Yr to ensure continuity of service. Activity will be undertaken prior to Vesting Day (1 st November 2013) or shortly thereafter to deliver; Rebranding of College and campuses Unified communications systems ID badges Single approach for student funding.the individual college finance teams will need to manage the accounting required for merger activity and consider the work required to harmonise accounting principles prior to vesting day. This activity is assumed as unlikely to materially affect the reported surplus and reserves position for the College. 3.2 Yr ; initial merger activity Yr 1 of the Business Case comprises a roll forward of the budgets for the individual colleges plus an overlay of known \ estimated changes to funding. The VS activity performed in Yr0 will reduce staffing costs. The new Principal and the senior team will control the activity to integrate the activities of the individual colleges. The curriculum and student support team will develop a single system for application and recording by December 2013 to ensure that one curriculum is in place from August New harmonised terms and conditions for all staff will be introduced within an agreed timescale. A consolidated plan for the delivery of non-core grant together with commercial and international income growth will be in place and the commercial team will be delivering the assumed level of growth and profitability. The College will be managed as one financial entity from 1 st November Initially this is expected to require consolidation of existing reports but there will be a move towards one final - gnc buscase dr docx 9

10 integrated system during Systems integration plans for HR systems and a single payroll solution will need to be developed. VS activity will continue throughout , this will support the integration of learning and teaching structures and the corporate structures to deliver the curriculum and services required by the new College. The cost of VS activity will be covered by SFC funding in line with the profile in Appendix Yr ; bedding down the merger A single curriculum will be in place and there will be ongoing savings arising following the implementation of the VS activity in Yr0 and Yr1. The proposed changes to college governance will be in place by this time and there may be a move towards regional management and national bargaining on terms and conditions. This Business Case does not reflect any costs that may arise from this initiative. There will be on-going investment in physical and IT assets required to ensure that the college can deliver the curriculum. 3.4 Yr ; a New College The work on merging the curriculum should be completing this year and any specific support for staff or students on previously merged courses will cease. Longer running integration activities such as systems integration should complete during this year. The College will be producing a surplus, subject to any further funding reductions that may occur. 3.5 Yr ; post-merger looking forward The College should be viable at this stage. Income and costs should be in line with Year 3 although external and staff cost inflation will need to be managed. 3.6 Yr ; steady state An extrapolation of Yr4 the College will not be identifying new merger savings at this stage. final - gnc buscase dr docx 10

11 4. Key financial information 4.1 Glasgow (New) College forecast I&E account Income & Expenditure a\c - Actual 31st July 2012 k Pro-forma I&E a\c Forecast : K JW NG Stow New Coll 2013 Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr 4 Income Funding Council grants 8,910 10,382 9,702 28,994 25,877 24,723 24,723 24,723 24,723 24,723 Tuition fees and education contracts 257 2,132 3,088 5,477 Research grants and contracts ,176 7,104 7,104 7,104 7,104 7,104 Other income ,580 Endowment and investment income Exceptional merger support grants 4,928 1,940 2, Total income 10,153 13,510 13,160 36,823 34,993 34,665 31,902 31,902 31,827 31,827 Expenditure Staff costs 6,280 8,896 8,464 23,640 21,743 20,895 18,824 19,006 19,196 19,388 Exceptional restructuring costs - Exceptional pension costs Other operating expenses 3,033 3,009 3,782 9,824 8,230 8,421 8,537 8,621 8,793 8,969 Depreciation 767 1, ,258 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 Interest payable Exceptional merger support costs 6,109 1,940 3, ,080 13,567 13,100 36,747 35,070 35,858 31,228 30,859 31,146 31,514 Surplus on continuing operations 73 (57) (1,181) (77) (1,193) 674 1, Gain \ (Loss) on disposal of fixed assets Retained surplus 73 (57) (77) (1,193) 674 1, Yr 5 The total income of the college will fall by 3% over the planning period. The increase in commercial and international income will partially offset the reductions in core grant income, non-core grant income and ESF funding. The core grant income reduction of 0.6% for with a flat cash position thereafter reflects management estimates based upon SFC and government guidance. International income is forecast to grow by 0.1m over the over the life of the plan. This is expected to be high margin activity primarily delivered by existing resources. This will be offset by an expected reduction of 0.2m in SDS related income. Expenditure will be managed to achieve the efficiencies required on merger. The efficiencies will lead to reduced staffing levels as set out in detail in Appendix 3. Budgeted staff costs for total 21.8m. In 2013 terms, staff costs will reduce by 3.6m but this reduction is affected by a pay related inflation and harmonisation costs of 1.2m by the end of the period giving staff costs at 2018 of 19.4m. final - gnc buscase dr docx 11

12 The overall cost of merger is analysed in Appendix 4 together with the merger grants to be received from the SFC. The net position is reflected in the exceptional cost and grant figures above. The Base Case shows a sustainable surplus position. Staffing reductions are anticipated to happen in a structured manner as described in Appendix 3 and the plan carries inflation assumptions to minimise the effect of external shocks. An accounting surplus is generated from Post this date management will need to consider further efficiencies to cope with external and staff cost inflation. However this reflects standard management challenges and sits outside of the specific merger mandate. Costs relating to FRS 17 have not been forecast at this time as the College has no control over the reported number. final - gnc buscase dr docx 12

13 4.2 Glasgow (New) College forecast Balance Sheet Balance Sheets - Actual 31st July 2012 k Pro-forma Balance Sheet Forecast : K JW NG Stow New Coll 2013 Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr 5 Fixed assets Land and buildings 21,634 35,780 6,832 64,246 62,346 60,475 59,146 57,857 56,606 55,393 Equipment 604 1,865 1,087 3,556 2,803 2,017 1,689 1, Other ,238 37,673 7,919 67,830 65,149 62,492 60,835 59,178 57,521 55,864 Current assets Stocks Debtors ,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 Investments Cash at bank and in hand 1,213 5,646 2,237 9,096 9,162 8,112 8,088 8,585 8,720 8,922 1,566 6,226 2,702 10,494 10,560 9,510 9,486 9,983 10,118 10,320 Creditors: amounts falling due within one year - Loans Payments received in advance Trade creditors (86) (148) (229) (463) (463) (463) (463) (463) (463) (463) Taxation and social security (189) (276) (465) (465) (465) (465) (465) (465) (465) Accruals and deferred income (774) (189) (1,266) (2,229) (2,229) (2,229) (2,229) (2,229) (2,229) (2,229) Lennartz VAT (460) (460) (460) (460) (460) (460) (460) (460) Other creditors (81) (563) (644) (644) (644) (644) (644) (644) (644) (1,049) (878) (2,334) (4,261) (4,261) (4,261) (4,261) (4,261) (4,261) (4,261) - Net current assets / liabilities 517 5, ,233 6,299 5,249 5,225 5,722 5,857 6,059 - Total assets less current liabilities 22,755 43,021 8,287 74,063 71,448 67,741 66,060 64,900 63,378 61,923 Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year Bank loans Mortgage Other creditors (774) (774) (463) (152) Lennartz VAT (2,325) (2,325) (1,865) (1,405) (945) (485) (25) 0 0 (2,325) (774) (3,099) (2,328) (1,557) (945) (485) (25) 0 Provisions Early retirement provision 0 (2,136) 0 (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) Other (2,136) 0 (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) (2,136) - Net pension asset / (liability) (1,518) (2,233) (2,519) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) NET ASSETS 21,237 36,327 4,994 62,558 60,714 57,778 56,709 56,009 54,947 53,517 Represented by: Deferred capital grants SFC 10,335 25,181 1,282 36,798 35,031 33,288 31,545 29,802 28,059 26,316 Other 5,889 7, ,377 13,377 13,377 13,377 13,377 13,377 13,377 16,224 32,513 1,438 50,175 48,408 46,665 44,922 43,179 41,436 39,693 Reserves Income and expenditure account (excluding pension reserve) 1,595 6, ,259 8,182 6,989 7,663 8,706 9,387 9,700 Pension reserve (1,518) (2,233) (2,519) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) (6,270) Revaluation reserve 4,936-5,458 10,394 10,394 10,394 10,394 10,394 10,394 10,394 Designated reserve - 5,013 3,814 3,556 12,383 12,306 11,113 11,787 12,830 13,511 13,824 - TOTAL 21,237 36,327 4,994 62,558 60,714 57,778 56,709 56,009 54,947 53, The forecast Balance Sheets reflect the changes in the financial strength of the College over the planning period. The Fixed Asset base will be strengthened by an overall investment in property and other fixed assets of 6.5m over the plan period. This includes 2.0m in property assets and 4.5m in teaching and other assets. SFC capital funding is forecast to total 2.5m over the plan period. The Business Case assumes that the College will continue to use most of its existing sites and assets; hence there should no need for material disposals or write offs. An estates strategy will be developed post Vesting Day. The merger of accounting policies is assumed to make no material change to depreciation rates. final - gnc buscase dr docx 13

14 The College has liabilities in respect of Lennartz VAT and loans from the SFC. These liabilities are expected to amortise in line with current repayment profiles. The College I& E Reserves reduce in the early years of the plan as the effect of the grant reductions feeds through as losses within the I&E a\c. This position improves in the later years of the plan. The Base Case assumes that the merger process is unlikely to materially affect the outstanding pension liabilities within the Balance Sheet. These are substantial and relevant when considering the long term financial health of the College. Assuming no change in the current position covering the pension liability of 6.3m will use 65% of the Colleges 2018 forecast free reserves of 9.7m. final - gnc buscase dr docx 14

15 4.3 Glasgow (New) College forecast Cashflow Cash Flow actual Y/E 31st July 2012 K JW NG Stow New Coll 2013 Yr 0 Pro-forma Cash Flow Forecast : K 2014 Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr 5 Reported surplus \ (deficit) 73 (57) (77) (1,193) 674 1, Depreciation 767 1, ,258 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 Deferred capital grant released (642) (1,572) (545) (2,759) (2,243) (2,243) (2,243) (2,243) (2,243) (2,243) Pension cost less contribs (15) 31 (30) (14) Net int payable \ (receivable) (123) (10) (133) Dec \(Inc) in debtors Inc \ (Dec) in creditors (322) (697) (527) (1,546) other (11) (24) (323) (358) Cash inflow (outflow) from operations (133) (656) (545) (1,334) 837 (279) 1,588 1,957 1,595 1,227 Int (paid) \ received Cap expenditure - buildings (11) 0 (115) (126) (476) 0 0 (500) (500) (500) (500) Capital expenditure - other (476) (500) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) Capital funding received (15) (15) Lennartz VAT repaid (460) (460) (460) (460) (460) (25) SFC past funding repaid (311) (311) (152) Increase (Decrease) in cash & investments (123) (533) (665) (1,321) 66 (1,050) (24) Balance Sheet cash B/f 9,096 9,162 8,112 8,088 8,585 8,720 Balance Sheet cash C/f 9,096 9,162 8,112 8,088 8,585 8,720 8, Adjusted Balance Sheet cash C/f 9,096 9,162 8,112 8,088 8,585 8,720 8,922 Cash as a % of Annual revenue 28% 25% 25% 27% 27% 28% The College generates cash from operating activities throughout most of the planning period. Although the effect of reduced income and severance does lead to deficits within the I&E a\c, the level of depreciation ensures that the College continues to generate cash. The cash is utilised to fund merger costs, capital expenditure on property and other fixed assets and reducing the level of Lennartz VAT and SFC liabilities in line with the agreed repayment profiles. The Balance Sheet cash position falls from 9.1m at the start of the plan. The position strengthens in the latter years and the balance stands at 8.9m by the end of the planning period. The level of cash expected to be held at that time would cover just over 100 days trading activity which is reasonable for a college of this size. final - gnc buscase dr docx 15

16 5. Risk analysis The Base Case estimates future income based upon the latest information received from the SFC and internal estimates on the potential for commercial and international growth. The Base Case cost reductions reflect the reduced level of funding and the intention for the College to demonstrate financial sustainability within three years of merger. The narrative in Section 3 and the detail of the assumptions in Appendix 3 outlines the scale of activities required to achieve sustainability. Sensitivity analysis has been documented in Appendix 5. Key risks to the Base Case are outlined below; 5.1 Inability to meet the needs of the community The Base Case seeks to balance the need to reduce costs whilst continuing to provide a modern curriculum to students across North Glasgow. Reducing teaching and support capability in these vulnerable areas may compromise initiatives to increase employment and wealth. Mitigation: Clarity on community and financial priorities for the College from SFC, Government and Glasgow Regional Board; capital and revenue support where appropriate. 5.2 Changes to core grant funding The Base Case estimates the potential reductions in core grant funding over the period The process of allocation may be subject to review and change. The level and rate of change will have a material effect on the financial health of the College. A 1% change in core grant income equates to c. 0.2m Mitigation: SFC will need to provide information on the process for calculation and allocation of future funding. 5.3 Inability to reduce staff numbers The Base Case assumes a reduction of c.86 staff over the period from 2013 to If the College only achieves 70% of its targeted reduction the remaining staff will cost up to 1.0m p.a. in excess of plan until they leave. Mitigation: Clarity externally and internally on the key drivers for future sustainability. Management capability and VS funding in place to enable delivery of the changes required. 5.4 SFC merger implementation funding The Base Case assumes merger implementation costs of 5.8m. SFC merger funding is assumed to total a maximum of 4.6m (+facilitation costs already paid of 0.3m). The excess cost of implementation will be met from College reserves. Any reduction in the amount received will directly affect the reported surpluses and cash position of the College. Mitigation: Documented offer of funding from SFC with clarity on terms of drawdown and period of availability. final - gnc buscase dr docx 16

17 5.5 Staff costs, payroll taxes and pension contributions The Base Case includes an estimate of the cost of harmonising terms and conditions across the colleges. This will need to be funded by the College. The estimated amount is 2.5% of teaching payroll costs per annum through the life of the plan. There is no estimate of cost for any national harmonisation activity. The Base Case assumes a 1% annual payroll cost increase across the plan period There are three areas of risk arising. Staff and Union action may drive a requirement for pay increases; HMRC may impose further increases to NI; and pension fund contributions may need to increase to cover deficits and the effect of auto enrolment. Each 1% increase will add c. 200k p.a. to the College cost base in a single year with a compounding effect thereafter. Mitigation: Agreement with Unions on the changes to productivity that will be required if any pay increases above those within the plan are to be afforded. Seek access to funds at National level to finance broader harmonisation activity. 5.6 External inflation The Base Case assumes inflation on non-staff costs to run at 2% over the life of the plan. This is based on the Bank of England target which is below the current level of inflation. Each 1% increase will add c. 80k to the College cost base. Mitigation: National and regional procurement efficiencies may assist the college in reducing costs. 5.7 Loss of control The Base Case assumes that the College will move rapidly to one management structure and that integration activity will commence prior to merger. The challenge of integrating three colleges and the underlying curriculum, financial and control systems should not be underestimated, particularly against a background of losing senior level experience and skills. The College may need to invest in skills retention (e.g. agree delayed redundancy of key people to ensure continuity of BAU process and delivery of integration activities). Mitigation: Detailed plan for integration to be developed, key resources to be identified. final - gnc buscase dr docx 17

18 Appendices final - gnc buscase dr docx 18

19 Appendix 1: Base Case model development process The financial model has been developed in MS Excel specifically for use in modelling the financial effects of the merger process. The model has been developed by Allardyce Consulting Ltd. The model produces an integrated forecast including I&E, Balance Sheet and cash flow information. The model contains details of the financial results of the three colleges and a merged position. Seven years of financial information have been provided. The audited position for the year ended July 2012 is included to provide a reference point. The budget position for the current year provides information on the scale of current activity (Yr 0). The forecast information runs from August 2013 to July 2018 (Yrs. 1-5). The assumption is that all material merger related activity will be complete within three years of the Vesting Day. The actual and forecast information has been analysed in more detail than shown in the usual external reporting format to enable management to consider individual income and expenditure streams and to focus on those areas most likely to change and \ or those that can be influenced in the short and medium term. The core financial forecasts of the colleges have been provided by the Finance Directors of each college. The forecasts and the assumptions underlying them are set out in Appendix 2. The unadjusted forecasts are summarised and discussed on a single college basis in Appendix 2.4. The financial effect of merger actions is then overlaid onto the single college with assumptions detailed in Appendices 3 & 4. Sensitivities are run to cover the potential effect of key risks to the Base Case scenario. These are detailed in Appendix 5. The analysis and activity to merge and summarise this information has been undertaken by Allardyce Consulting in conjunction with the Finance Directors of the colleges. The narrative and assumptions on the speed and scale of change have been informed by discussion with the Principals Merger Group. final - gnc buscase dr docx 19

20 Appendix 2: Base Case model core data A2.1 John Wheatley forecast John Wheatley Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Results Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 11 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Units = '000 Y-1 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Extrapolated figures SFC grants category 1 (GIA & Fee Waiver) 7,177 6,472 6,472 6,472 6,472 6,472 6,472 SFC grants category 2 (Other Grants) 1,311 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 SFC grants category 3 (release of deferred capital grant) Tuition fees and education contracts SAAS Commercial & International Other income European Grants ESF grant reduction Total Income 10,153 9,118 9,118 9,118 9,118 9,118 9,118 Expenditure Senior Management Middle Management-Teaching Middle Management-Support Teaching Staff 4,850 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 Support Staff 1,430 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 Temporary Staff restructuring costs in staff costs Non-merger restruct except costs/unfunded Early Retirals Other operating expenses - Teaching Other operating expenses - Premises Other operating expenses - Admin & Central Services Other operating expenses - Other-- inc impairment Other operating expenses - Development FRS 17 costs Depreciation Interest payable Total Expenditure 10,080 9,117 9,117 9,117 9,117 9,117 9,117 Unadjusted Surplus \ (Deficit) - after grant reductions The John Wheatley forecast reflects information provided to the SFC within the FFR return for The cost information has been analysed in more detail than provided in the FFR to enable a fuller understanding of the costs relating to staff. This has enabled modelling to be undertaken to identify potential savings to the merged college. The movement between the original FFR position which was submitted in Q and internal forecast information for (as at Q1 2013) has been reflected in the numbers above. The revised numbers reflect minor changes from the break-even position shown in the FFR. The forecast surplus has been extrapolated across the planning period with all adjustments for and beyond applied at a merged college level as discussed in Appendix 3. final - gnc buscase dr docx 20

21 A2.2 North Glasgow forecast North Glasgow Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Results Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 11 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Units = '000 Y-1 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Extrapolated figures SFC grants category 1 (GIA & Fee Waiver) 8,417 7,538 7,538 7,538 7,538 7,538 7,538 SFC grants category 2 (Other Grants) SFC grants category 3 (release of deferred capital grant) 1,414 1,402 1,402 1,402 1,402 1,402 1,402 Tuition fees and education contracts 2,132 2,339 2,339 2,339 2,339 2,339 2,339 SAAS - Commercial & International Other income European Grants SDS reduction ESF grant reduction Total Income 13,510 12,689 12,689 12,689 12,689 12,689 12,689 Expenditure Senior Management Middle Management-Teaching Middle Management-Support Teaching Staff 6,150 5,123 5,123 5,123 5,123 5,123 5,123 Support Staff 2,380 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 Temporary Staff restructuring costs in staff costs Non-merger restruct except costs/unfunded Early Retirals Other operating expenses - Teaching 897 1,128 1,128 1,128 1,128 1,128 1,128 Other operating expenses - Premises Other operating expenses - Admin & Central Services Other operating expenses - Other-- inc impairment Other operating expenses - Development FRS 17 costs Depreciation 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 Interest payable Total Expenditure 13,567 12,745 12,677 12,677 12,677 12,677 12,677 Unadjusted Surplus \ (Deficit) - after grant reductions ( 57) ( 56) The North Glasgow forecast initially reflected information provided to the SFC within the FFR return for The cost information has been analysed in more detail than provided in the FFR to enable a fuller understanding of the costs relating to staff. This has enabled modelling to be undertaken to identify potential savings to the merged college. The movement between the original FFR position which was submitted in Q and internal forecast information for (as at Q1 2013) has been reflected in the numbers above. The revised numbers make a prudent assumption on staff costs and show a small deficit. North Glasgow College has produced a revised forecast for ; this has been extrapolated across the planning period with all further adjustments for and beyond applied at a merged college level as discussed in Appendix 3. final - gnc buscase dr docx 21

22 A2.3 Stow forecast Stow Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Results Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 11 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Units = '000 Y-1 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Extrapolated figures SFC grants category 1 (GIA & Fee Waiver) 7,483 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 SFC grants category 2 (Other Grants) 1,702 1, SFC grants category 3 (release of deferred capital grant) Tuition fees and education contracts 3,088 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 SAAS - Commercial & International Other income European Grants ESF grant reduction Total Income 13,160 11,246 11,181 11,181 11,181 11,181 11,181 13,160 Expenditure - Senior Management Middle Management-Teaching Middle Management-Support Teaching Staff 6,552 4,187 4,187 4,187 4,187 4,187 4,187 Support Staff 1,632 2,005 2,005 2,005 2,005 2,005 2,005 Temporary Staff restructuring costs in staff costs Non-merger restruct except costs/unfunded Early Retirals Other operating expenses - Teaching 1, Other operating expenses - Premises 1, Other operating expenses - Admin & Central Services Other operating expenses - Other-- inc impairment Other operating expenses - Development FRS 17 costs Depreciation Interest payable 25 Total Expenditure 13,100 11,336 11,396 11,396 11,396 11,396 11,396 Unadjusted Surplus \ (Deficit) - after grant reductions 60 ( 90) ( 215) ( 215) ( 215) ( 215) ( 215) The Stow forecast reflects information provided to the SFC within the FFR return for The cost information has been analysed in more detail than provided in the FFR to enable a fuller understanding of the costs relating to staff. This has enabled modelling to be undertaken to identify potential savings to the merged college. Three changes have been made; 1. Other Grant income for and beyond has been reduced by 200k following guidance from the Finance Director. 2. International income for and beyond has been increased by 125k p.a. following guidance from the Finance Director. 3. Staff costs have been increased by 80k to reflect the effect of a pay increase for staff. The forecast surplus (as adjusted) has been extrapolated across the planning period with any further adjustments for and beyond applied at a merged college level as discussed in Appendix 3. final - gnc buscase dr docx 22

23 A2.4 Base Case model: Combined single college forecast with reduced funding The forecasts produced by the individual colleges are summarised below: Merged Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Results Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 11 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Units = '000 Y-1 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y % 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% dec dec SFC grants category 1 (GIA & Fee Waiver) 23,077 20,710 20,576 20,576 20,576 20,576 20,576 SFC grants category 2 (Other Grants) 3,564 2,924 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 SFC grants category 3 (release of deferred capital grant) 2,353 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 Tuition fees and education contracts 5,477 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 SAAS Commercial & International Other income 1,363 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 European Grants SDS reduction ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ESF grant reduction ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) Total Income 36,823 33,053 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 Expenditure Senior Management - 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 Middle Management-Teaching - 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 Middle Management-Support - 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 Teaching Staff 17,552 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 Support Staff 5,442 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 Temporary Staff restructuring costs in staff costs 646 Non-merger restruct except costs/unfunded Early Retirals Other operating expenses - Teaching 2,631 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 Other operating expenses - Premises 2,899 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 Other operating expenses - Admin & Central Services 1,929 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 Other operating expenses - Other-- inc impairment 2,106 1,246 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 Other operating expenses - Development FRS 17 costs Depreciation 3,258 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 Interest payable 25 Total Expenditure 36,747 33,130 33,190 33,190 33,190 33,190 33,190 Unadjusted Surplus \ (Deficit) - after grant reductions 76 ( 77) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) The Base Case assumes a 0.6% reduction in core grant funding in with no further core funding reductions in cash terms (flat cash). Further reductions to non-core grant ( 0.4m), ESF funding ( 0.4m) and SDS funding ( 0.2m) are also expected and have been recognised at this stage. The outturn figures show substantial losses occurring in the periods and beyond. The College (or the individual colleges) will be unable to cope with size and ongoing profile of losses arising from the reduced grant income unless changes are made to the underlying costs and business model. The financial effects of the potential management actions required to deliver the changes are detailed within Appendix 3. final - gnc buscase dr docx 23

24 Appendix 3: Management actions to improve the financial position The schedule below builds on A2.4 and summarises the financial effect of the management actions required to deliver merger and ensure viability of the College. Merged Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Results Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 11 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Units = '000 Y-1 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y % 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% dec dec SFC grants category 1 (GIA & Fee Waiver) 23,077 20,710 20,576 20,576 20,576 20,576 20,576 SFC grants category 2 (Other Grants) 3,564 2,924 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 SFC grants category 3 (release of deferred capital grant) 2,353 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 Tuition fees and education contracts 5,477 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 5,337 SAAS Commercial & International Other income 1,363 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 1,238 European Grants SDS reduction ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ( 197) ESF grant reduction ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) ( 430) Total Income 36,823 33,053 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 31,827 Expenditure Senior Management - 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 1,175 Middle Management-Teaching - 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 1,588 Middle Management-Support - 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 1,405 Teaching Staff 17,552 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 12,691 Support Staff 5,442 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 4,884 Temporary Staff restructuring costs in staff costs 646 Non-merger restruct except costs/unfunded Early Retirals Other operating expenses - Teaching 2,631 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 Other operating expenses - Premises 2,899 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 Other operating expenses - Admin & Central Services 1,929 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 1,705 Other operating expenses - Other-- inc impairment 2,106 1,246 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 Other operating expenses - Development FRS 17 costs Depreciation 3,258 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 Interest payable 25 Total Expenditure 36,747 33,130 33,190 33,190 33,190 33,190 33,190 Unadjusted Surplus \ (Deficit) - after grant reductions 76 ( 77) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) ( 1,363) 1. Commercial growth: income - memo only - 1. Commercial growth: margin - 1a Extra dev costs 2. Senior mgt structure changes a. Middle mgt teaching structure changes b. Middle mgt support structure changes Teaching staff changes 343 1,142 1,142 1,142 1, Support staff changes Temp staff changes Harmonisation costs ( 309) ( 296) ( 289) ( 289) ( 289) 8. Admin & central services - non staff costs Overall improvement - 1,089 3,397 3,489 3,489 3,489 Revised surplus 76 ( 77) ( 274) 2,034 2,126 2,126 2, % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% inflation on staff costs % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% inflation on variable non staff costs Revised inflation adjusted surplus pre exceptionals 76 ( 77) ( 646) 1,308 1, Merger Exceptional costs - net - ( 547) ( 634) Surplus\ deficit post exceptionals 76 ( 77) ( 1,193) 674 1, The assumptions supporting the numbers included in the schedule above are detailed in the following pages of this section. final - gnc buscase dr docx 24

25 A3.1 Other income growth and development costs The College will seek to grow its Commercial and International income over the period but a prudent approach to the level has been adopted. This activity is assumed to be delivered utilising existing resources from within the College and a 100% margin is applied. A3.2 Changes to staffing structures Budget Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 Aug 12 1 Aug 13 1 Aug 14 1 Aug 15 1 Aug 16 1 Aug 17 Glasgow (New) College: Income Strategy 31 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18 Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 COMMERCIAL & INTERNATIONAL INCOME SDS NEW COLLEGE LEARNING PROGRAMME TOTAL STRATEGY FIGURES As discussed in Section 1, the substantial level of core grant reduction will require management action to reduce costs across the College. The modelling process has used average staff cost per FTE to provide an indication of the number of roles affected. The table below sets out the key assumptions used in the development of the Base Case; These numbers are indicative for planning purposes only and are subject to the uptake of the VS programme. Run Rate Reduction no. Staff costs Av Sal + oncosts k Budget k Overall Reduction % Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr 5 12 Senior Management 98 1, % 60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 28 Middle Management-Teaching 57 1, % 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% 30 Middle Management-Support 47 1, % 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% 285 Teaching Staff 44 12, % 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% Support Staff 24 4, % 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% - Temporary Staff % 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% ,577 The table has two variable elements which should be explained at this stage as the same process is used throughout the model. Saving delivery rate this estimates the rate at which the savings will be achieved. e.g. it is assumed that a number of the senior management team will remain in the College through Yr1 to aid the merger process hence only 60% of the potential saving is achieved in Yr1. Yr2 would see the new team fully in place with no extra costs. For clarity, to achieve a full year saving in Yr1 the employees affected will have to leave the College prior to the end of Yr0. Av Salary + oncosts this estimates the average cost of a member of this staff group and has been compiled upon the total number of FTE in this group and the total budgeted salary and on-cost information for as provided by the colleges. This figure is used to final - gnc buscase dr docx 25

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