IGEES Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "IGEES Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service"

Elizabeth Hamilton
5 years ago
Views:

1 IGEES Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service Jasmina Behan/Chris Boyle Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service Department of Public Expenditure and Reform 25 Sept 2018

2 Total Government Expenditure 72.5 bn

3 Policy space 3

Public policy Policies Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made Otto von Bismarck Gut feeling, ideology, generally accepted belief Policies are experiments Monitoring,

4 Public policy Policies Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made Otto von Bismarck Gut feeling, ideology, generally accepted belief Policies are experiments Monitoring, evaluation, correction, termination Understanding the problem (setting rationale) half the battle (unintended consequences) Every euro spent on poor schemes is a euro less for Government to provide other needed services 4

5 IGEES Medium Term Strategy Strategic goal: Contribute to better design and targeting of Government policy through high quality analysis and evaluation Strategy 1: Output Strategy 2: Dissemination Strategy 3: Recruitment Strategy 4: Training Papers Research fund Spending Review Budget SR Conference Annual Conference Strategic Policy Discussions Other (conferences, website etc.) Recruitment: 135 Departments: 17 AP promotion: 21 Mobility L&D Framework Induction CBA, CIE, R etc. Communication: IGEES HIVE, IGEES End Year Event, IGEES Newsletter Governance: IAG, EAG, POG 5

6 IGEES Evidence based decisions Knowledge (Information with insight) Information (Data in context) Data

7 Key principles and approaches doing the right thing spending for right objectives doing it right spending efficiently

Are we doing right things and are we doing them right?

supports in ensuring resilience of Irish enterprises in the face of Brexit?

RS) how efficient and effective are these schemes in alleviating the housing crisis?

pays manufacturers for medicines) per capita why is this the case and how sustainable is this

8 Are we doing right things and are we doing them right? Exchequer expenditure on enterprise supports amounts to over 1bn euro how effective are these supports in ensuring resilience of Irish enterprises in the face of Brexit? In 2017, the Exchequer is spending over 600m euro on 4 housing schemes (HAP, RAS, SHCEP and RS) how efficient and effective are these schemes in alleviating the housing crisis? How effective is the Irish higher education system in meeting the skill needs of the Irish economy? Ireland is ranked one of the highest in terms of pharmaceutical spend (the price the State pays manufacturers for medicines) per capita why is this the case and how sustainable is this expenditure? Can behavioural economics help us to achieve better tax compliance and increase tax revenue? Housing Assistance Payment (HAP), Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS), Social Housing Current Expenditure Programme (SHCEP) and Rent Supplement

9 IGEES and DPER Spending Review 2018 Department Department Department Department Vote Vote Vote Department Vote DPER Central Expenditure Vote Department Department DPER 9

10 Spending Review 2018 Efficiency and Digitalisation within the Office of the Revenue Commissioners Management of Exchequer Pay Bill HSE Staff Trend Analysis, Policing Civilianisation in Ireland: Lessons from International Practice Review of Overtime Expenditure in An Garda Síochána Pay Expenditure Drivers at Primary and Second Level Understanding the funding needs of the third level sector An Analysis of Older People Services Spend and Activity, Pension Bill Projections for the Public Service: Cashflow Analysis Review of Criminal Legal Aid (DJE) Supports for Persons on Low Income Public Employment Services Mapping Activation An Analysis of Replacement Rates Analysis of IDA Ireland Expenditure Analysis of Enterprise Supports and the Labour Market An Assessment of Direct Supports for Start-ups and Entrepreneurship (DBEI) Sports Capital Programme (DTTaS) Analysis of PSO Expenditure on Public Transport Assessing the Split Between Current and Capital Expenditure on Social Housing Delivery Analysis of OPW Spending on State Rents Subsidised Ferry Services to the Offshore Islands (DCHG) Review of Recent Evaluations by DTTaS (DTTaS) Implementation of recommendations made as part of the VFM and Policy Review undertaken in regard to the Arts Council (DCHG) Comparative Levels and Efficiency of Public Spending Analysis of Hospital Inputs and Outputs, Nursing and Midwifery Expenditure Trends in Public Expenditure

11 Disability Allowance Spending Review Chris Boyle Social Protection Vote

12 Summary Since 2012, there have been significant increases in expenditure on Disability Allowance. Between , expenditure increased by 270m, an average of 68m per annum. Concern within DPER regarding the increase in expenditure and the nature of that increase. As part of the 2017 Spending Review, a paper was published that examined: Historical and recent expenditure and recipient trends Drivers of recent recipient drivers International best practice regarding reforms of disability supports The range of employment and employability supports for people with disabilities.

13 Recent Trends Scheme Expenditure 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,358 1,000 1, Source: DEASP Admin Data

14 m Disaggregation of cost drivers , Source: DEASP Admin Data Growth in Expenditure Rate Changes Recipient Numbers Supplementary Payments for Qualified Dependents

15 Drivers of recipient numbers The analysis found that the drivers of increased recipient numbers were: Demographic Pressures Increased population & ageing population Movement from the Live Register Domiciliary Care Allowance Rule Changes to Illness Benefit

16 Number of recipients Analysis of inflows (age) 1600 Age Profile of Inflows Age Ranges Source: DEASP Admin Data

17 Data

18 Data Administrative data needs to be of the highest quality to ensure government s ability to make informed policy decisions. Databases such as the Jobseeker s Longitudinal Database are excellent resources in this respect. We found that data gaps hindered our ability to conclude this report as we couldn t attribute exact rises in recipient number to certain drivers. Ability to see trend but not quantum.

19 Improvements In DEASP s case, the digitalisation of their databases have been a great improvement in this respect. All new recipients since May 2017 have been assigned as ICD-10 codes which standardises diagnoses. On-going legacy issues in relation to long-term recipients and lack of data on them.

20 Conclusions & Recommendations There are gaps in data on the stock of DA recipients Recommendations in the Comprehensive Employment Strategy for People with Disabilities should be implemented Implement further recommendations in the Making Work Pay report A fundamental analysis of the objectives and underpinning legislation of DA is necessary in light of the change in the profile of inflows

How many jobs will this create?

How many jobs will this create? Estimating the potential jobs from infrastructure plans Laura Watts laura.watts@per.gov.ie Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service Department of Public Expenditure