Trends in Public Opinion towards Welfare in Australia

Transcription

1 Trends in Public Opinion towards Welfare in Australia For: Brotherhood of St Laurence Shaun Wilson Sociology Macquarie University May

2 Describing Howard s welfare reform: (Jacob Hacker s idea help here) Limited retrenchment confined to programs affecting marginal Australians (CDEP, national dental scheme) Layering of policy to promote market provision (Private Health Insurance rebate) Drift as a deliberate strategy (Medicare bulk billing rates until 2003) Welfare populism ending new migrant access to some welfare benefits in 1997, Work for the Dole Expansion of family-centred welfare where it promotes breadwinner or neo-traditional family arrangements Instruments: a preference for cash over services, markets over public provision. Avoidance of cross-class lock-in in policy design.

3 Today s talk: Considering new data from Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005 trends in spending and taxing preferences perceptions of major service areas better or worse? families as new welfare constituency? shifts in perceptions of inequality and redistribution A look at support for new migrant welfare restrictions, and support for private (over public provision)

4 Table 12.1 Lower taxes or more spending? , per cent Increase social spending The same/ depends Reduce taxes Tax and spend scale* 1967 (n = 1898) (n = (n = 8084) (n = 1915) (n = 2909) (n = 1740) (n = 6084) (n = 2942) (n = 1727) (n = 1804) (n = 1951) (n = 4080) (n= 1711) (n=3698) SOURCES Australian National Political Attitudes Survey 1967, 1969, 1979; Morgan Poll, August 1974; National Social Science Survey 1984, 1990; Australian Election Study 1987, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004; and The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2003, See endnote 2 in Wilson, Meagher and Breusch (2005) for groupings of original categories. * Tax and spend scale is the proportion of respondents in favour of increased spending over the sum of support for spending and reduced taxes, excluding the middle category.

5 Prefs. move away from tax cuts Pro-spending attitudes return P ro -s p e n d in g ra tio O1 O3 O4 O5 Year Pro-spend

6 The main points: Over the last generation: Younger voters tending towards tax cuts Older voters tending towards social spending Support for spending cyclical tends to oppose the partisan colour of government The affluence argument. (Norton, Lindert) Predictive capacity? See James Stimson

7 Perceptions of services Table 12.2 Perceptions of health and education service standards,* , per cent Change Health and Medicare decreased (a little or a lot) Public education decreased (a little or a lot) n (1781) (1896) (4120) (1669) (3824) SOURCES The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2003, 2005; Australian Election Study 1998, 2001, 2004 * The Australian Election Study ask about perceptions of the standard of health services and the quality of education while AuSSA asks about perceptions of standard of health services including Medicare and the standard of public education.

8 60 Effect of perception of health services on support for tax cuts Per cent Cut taxes More spending 10 0 Increased a lot Increased a little Stayed same Decreased a little Decreased a lot The standard of health services including Medicare has... SOURCE The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005

9 Table 12.3 Support for government payments to families and single parents, 2005 per cent Agree that all families deserve payments to help with cost of raising children Agree that single parents deserve payments to stay home to raise children Men Women Age or over Income Higher income earners over $78, Lower income earners under $36, Welfare history Received family benefits (A or B) in past 5 years Received single parenting payment in past 5 years Total (n 3718) SOURCE The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005

10 Comments: Family payments new constituency for welfare state Support for single parent payments lower: younger people and women hold more inclusive views of family Constituency effects matter too: family benefits claimed by a quarter of AuSSA 2005 respondents in past 5 years. Single parent payments by 3 per cent.

11 Table 12.4 Respondent (and partner s) welfare use in past 5 years, 2005, per cent Total use (percent) Total use single parent families Private health insurance rebate Family payments (A and B) Age pension 18 1 Unemployment benefits 10 8 Baby bonus 8 15 Disability payment 8 8 Child care benefit 7 15 First Home Owner Grant 5 8 Parenting payment (partnered) 4 6 Youth allowance 3 0 Parenting payment (single) 3 58 (n=3790) (n=80) SOURCE The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005

12 Table 12.5 Attitudes to welfare, mutual obligation and redistribution, 2003 and 2005, per cent Welfare payments Cutting welfare benefits would damage too many people s lives People who receive welfare benefits should be under more obligation to find work The government should limit the length of time that people can get welfare benefits even if they end up without an income Attitudes to unemployed, unemployment 2003 Agree 2005 Agree Change Around here, most unemployed people could find a job if they really wanted to Most people on welfare are trying to get a job 25 Unemployment has fallen over the last couple of years Distribution of income Government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well-off Gap between high incomes and low incomes is too large N 3817 SOURCES The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2003, 2005

13 Welfare for new migrants support for Howard Table 12.6 Attitudes to a two year waiting period for migrants to receive welfare benefits, 2005, per cent A good idea A bad idea Can t choose Born in Australia (n=1405) Born overseas English-speaking five (n=208) Born overseas other countries (n=260) Coalition identifiers (n=735) Labor identifiers (n=577) Green identifiers (n=104) One Nation identifiers (n= 28) Total (n= 1902) SOURCE The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005

14 Comments: Public supported Howard s restrictions on migrant access to welfare benefits in 1997 Few signs of problems publicised See Banting s research

15 Public thinks governments best able to help people in poverty Table 12.7 Attitudes to who is better able to help people in poverty? Governments Charities Can t choose Received Newstart Allowance (unemployment benefits) in past five years (n=187) With a religion (n=1386) Finding it very difficult to get by (n=134) Labor identifiers (n=576) Coalition identifiers (n=722) SOURCE Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005 Total (n=1899)

16 Public versus private provision: Which... best describes how you think the government should deal with the health and education needs of Australians? The government should raise enough money from taxes so that they can provide all Australians with public health and education. The government should raise less money from taxes so all Australians have enough money to provide for their own health and education. Public remains attached to public provision versus 17 per cent. Regression analysis shows only those with anti-welfare ideology support private provision (not private welfare users)

17 Table 12.8 Binary logit on support on choice between government and individual provision, 2005 Demographics Odds ratios Male Older Higher respondent income University education Household with children Private welfare use Private school attendance Private health cover in past 5 years Politics (ref: all other political IDs and no ID) LNP identity ALP identity Anti-welfare orientation scale 2.630** Constant 0.005** 2 log likelihood ratio Nagelkerke R-squared SOURCE The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2005 * p < 0.05; ** p < N 1265