Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 2018

Transcription

1 Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 218 (Report by Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy) White Paper: Toward The Economy of Society 5. Summary August 218 Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

2 1 Contents Chapter 1: Current State of Economic Recovery and Challenges. p.2 Chapter 2: Human Capital and Work Styles in the Era of the 1-year Life p.6 Chapter 3: Changes in Economic Activities toward "Society 5." p.9 This material has been tentatively prepared to explain the "Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance". For quotations and other purposes, please refer to the text of the "Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance".

3 Chapter 1: Current State of Economic Recovery and Challenges Since the end of 212, the Japanese economy has been in a moderate recovery, approaching the longest recovery period after WW II. In the 2s, the economy recovered amid deflation. In the current recovery phase, deflation faded and corporate earnings increased in broader sectors and all firm size. Employment conditions are steadily improving. The GDP gap has turned positive. Raising the potential growth rate is the next critical challenge. (3) Nominal wage income of employees (Contribution to growth, %) 8. Nominal w age income 7. Wages and the 6. number of employees both 5. increased Contribution of Number of employ ees.5. (1) Nominal and real GDP growth rate (2) Increase in corporate earnings (Annual, %) 2.5 Nominal growth exceeds real growth Nominal 1. GDP.4 14th 第 14 Phase 循環 (Feb. 22 (22 年 2 月 ~ Feb. 28) 28 年 2 月 ) Real GDP Current 今回 (Dec. 212 ) (212 年 12 月 ~) (In trillion yen) 35 Increase both in 3 Large and SMEs FY22 年度 FY212 年度 27 FY 217 Small: Nonmanufacturing Small: Medium: Non Mnf Medium: Large: Non Large: Sources: Cabinet Office, System of National Accounts ; Ministry of Finance, Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Quarterly). (4) Number of employed persons (Increases, in 1, persons) (5) Actual and potential GDP 4 (In trillion yen) Large increase in female and senior workers 53 3 Age 65 or 52 over Potential GDP Increase of 2 employees Contribution -5 Age 15-64: F of nominal wage Age 15-64: M ~ ~17 (Year) ~ ~17 (Year) Actual GDP GDP Gap GDP gap turned positive Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey ; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Labour Force Survey ; Cabinet Office, System of National Accounts. Note: In (5), shaded areas are recession phases. (Year) 2

4 1-2. Trend and Challenges of Households Sector: Consumption and Structural Changes Communication Food service Tourism & Leisure Healthcare Public transport Other Hairdressing Auto maintenance Education, etc. Rent With robust service spending, private consumption is picking up. Large room for increase in internet consumption remains, in particular, among elder users. Private consumption is picking up. Service consumption is especially robust, reflecting structural changes, such as the increased communication spending along with the diffusion of mobile phones, and the growth of spending on food services driven by increased singleperson and double-income households. Fewer elderly households shop on the internet. But, focusing only on the elderly households who online, the amount of their online spending is almost the same as those of younger households. For clothing, furniture, home appliances, online shoppers tend to buy lower-priced goods (1) Private consumption by category (Fiscal Year) (3) Internet consumption by age group Focusing only on the internet shopping users, the amount of spending is almost the same among all age groups. (In yen / month / household) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (Y/Y contribution, %) 2.7 Besides recovery in durable goods, service consumption steadily underpins consumer spending. Private final consumption expenditure (real) Average of internet shopping users Durable goods.3 Service Average of all households.9 Other (In yen / month) 1, Low er-priced goods are (***) 5, purchased by online shoppers -5, -1, (In trillion yen; Change from 212 to 217) -15, (***) -2, 39 <39 歳以下 歳 歳 歳 7 歳以上 7< Clothing 衣類 Furniture 家具 House 家電旅行 Travel (Age of householder) appliances 通信費 (2) Increase in service consumption by item 外食 旅行 レジャー (4) Difference in spending between internet shopping users and non-users (***) Communication and food service grew significantly. 保健医療サービ ス 公共交通 (**) その他 理容サービス 自動車等維持費 教育 月謝 家賃 Sources: Cabinet Office, System of National Accounts ; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Family Income and Expenditure Survey. 3

5 1-3. Trend and Challenges of Corporate Sector: Addressing Labor Shortage Diversified recruitment channel HRD for productivity increase Broadened applicant eligibility Professional & Technical Services Transport & Postal Services Real Estate & Rental Overtime & Work on holidays Pay increase & Better conditions Construction Labor saving investment Information & Communication Reduced workload & Contract adjustment Wholesale & Retail Shorter business time Restaurant & Hotel Finance & Insurance Profitability of firms facing labor shortage tend to be high, though some suffer from a labor shortage. Improvement of productivity is a key challenge to address. Firms facing labor shortage tend to earn more profits, but some sectors are forced to limit workload owing to labor shortage. (1) D.I. for labor shortage judgment (Higher-rank sectors) Transport & Postal 運輸業, 郵便業 Services Services サービス業 (Not elsewhere classified) Healthcare & 医療, 福祉 3 Welfare Labor shortage is Hotel & 宿泊業 Restaurant, 2 high level 飲食サービス業 Services in transport and other 1 Construction 建設業 service sectors ([Shortage] - [Excess], % point) (2) Ordinary profits and firms judgment on labor shortage (Changes from FY212 to 216, %) Firms facing a labor shortage tend to earn more profits. 非常に不足 Severe やや不足 Slight Balanced 適正 Excess 過剰 shortage Shortage (3) Companies compelled to limit workload owing to labor shortage (%) 4 Some sectors are forced to limit workload owing to labor 3 shortage. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Survey on Labour Economy Trend ; Cabinet Office, Attitude Survey of Companies on Work Style and Education & Training. 2 1 専門 技術サービス 運輸 郵便 不動産 物品賃貸 建設業 情報通信業 製造業 卸売 小売業 飲食 宿泊サービス 金融 保険 Firms facing severe labor shortage need to increase productivity. More active investment in human capital of employees and for labor saving to raise productivity is crucial. (4) Labor productivity and firms judgment on labor shortage (Productivity: that of Balanced=1) 12 Labor productivity of 1 firms facing severe 8 labor shortage tend to be lower Severe shortage Slight Shortage Balanced Excess (%) 採用手段多様化 (5) Firms efforts to address labor shortage 生産性向上 人材育 成による 採用対象の拡大 Efforts for productivity enhancement observed, including HRD & labor saving investment 従休業日員出の勤残業 待賃遇金改等善の Source: Cabinet Office, Attitude Survey of Companies on Work Style and Education & Training. 省力化投資 受注調整 業務量の抑制 営業時間の短縮 4

6 1-4. Challenges to Overcome Deflation and Revive the Economy: Trend of Prices and Wages Ordinary income grow th Labor productivity grow th Labor shortage Japan USA Euro zone Japan USA Euro zone Japan USA Euro zone Amid a moderate rise in prices, continued wage increases are needed to overcome deflation and revive the economy. 1. Trend of prices (1) Consumer prices and GDP gap (Y/Y, %) (2) Prices and wages: International Comparison Prices are moderately increasing. International comparison shows little difference in prices of goods while service prices increase slower in Japan, reflecting lower wage growth. Sources: Cabinet Office, System of National Accounts; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Consumer Price Index ; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey ; Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics ; etc. Note: Wages in (2) represent non-farm average of hourly pays. 2. Trend of wages Improved profitability and higher productivity are likely to deliver base wage hike. As the prospect of future business climate influences attitudes of companies toward wage increase, improving their long-termprospects is also crucial GDP Gap Excluding fresh foods and energy Positive both in consumer prices and GDP gap ⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠⅡⅢⅣⅠ (Quarter) (Year) (3) Analysis on factors which could raise probability of base wage increase (%) (%) More profit, higher productivity, and 1 labor shortage could lead to higher probability of base w age increase. 8 上経昇常率利益 労上働昇生率産性 人手不足 日本 アメリカ ユーロ圏 (4) Major reasons for avoiding base wage increase Pay 賞与や一時金で対応 more bonus instead Poor business performance 会社業績 Difficulty 将来の業績悪化時に賃下げが困難 in pay cuts in future downturn 業界 競合他社でのベースアップの動き Attitudes of sector / competitors (217: Y/Y, %) Large differences in wages and service prices between Japan and US Prices 物価動向等の経済状況 and other economic conditions Loss of price 価格競争力の低下 competitiveness 労働組合からの要望がない No demand from unions 日本 アメリカ ユーロ圏 22.9 日本 5.6 アメリカ Goods 財 Services サービス Wages 賃金 64.7 ユーロ圏 Anxieties about business performance, not only in current term but in future, make companies cautious. 5 1 (%) Source: Cabinet Office, Attitude Survey of Companies on Work Style and Education & Training. 5