Does Growth make us Happier? A New Look at the Easterlin Paradox

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Does Growth make us Happier? A New Look at the Easterlin Paradox"

Transcription

1 Does Growth make us Happier? A New Look at the Easterlin Paradox Felix FitzRoy School of Economics and Finance University of St Andrews St Andrews, KY16 8QX, UK Michael Nolan* Centre for Economic Policy University of Hull Hull, HU6 7RX, UK Abstract June 2014 Consistent with the Easterlin Paradox commonly found in macro data, raw BHPS data on average Life Satisfaction (LS) show no evidence of an upward trend over 10 years of substantial economic growth prior to the crash of 2008, neither for the full sample nor for regional subsamples (except obviously exceptional London). When the sample is split by education into three groups (high, middle and low) the (smallest) sub-sample with high education attainment shows remarkable growth in average LS, from lowest to highest of the three groups. Pfaff and Hirata (2013) estimate LS with the micro data in the BHPS and other panels, and find no effect of regional gross value added on LS, using many controls for individual characteristics, including own household income. This is perhaps not surprising since GVA (or GDP) growth should be reflected in household incomes over time. The lack of any extra influence of GVA is certainly consistent with Easterlin. Possible explanations of the paradox include the negative effect of peer group income, and declining social capital. Whereas Pfaff and Hirata (2013) use a quadratic in age, which misses declining LS of the elderly, we utilise age dummies and find positive and significant effects of regional GVA in various specifications, even when controlling for own income. This suggests a positive externality from economic growth, or perhaps public-good expenditure which is not included in private income. Given a lack of LS growth in the aggregate, this is not what Easterlin s results lead us to expect. Comparison income also has positive instead of the expected negative effect, so lack of trend growth in average LS for the whole sample is even more surprising, and is presumably due to strong offsetting factors, such as declining social capital, though clarifying this is beyond our present scope. JEL classifications: I31, O47. Keywords: Life satisfaction, Easterlin paradox. * Corresponding author: Michael A Nolan, M.A.Nolan@hull.ac.uk

2 1. Introduction and Background Easterlin s (1974) seminal paper found no correlation between long term economic growth in rich countries, and subjective well-being (SWB) life satisfaction (LS) or happiness. With 40 years of additional data, and economic growth, there is little evidence of any generally increasing trend in SWB, (even in some of the fastest growing developing countries such China). However there is a strong cyclical relationship between real GDP per capita and SWB, with unemployment being a major cause of unhappiness that moves with the cycle, and critics have usually failed to distinguish carefully between trend growth and deviations from the trend (Easterlin, 2013). The paradox is deepened by the fact that richer people are generally happier than the poor in any one country, though many other factors such as health, family and employment are more important than income (but often also correlated with income). The well-established importance of socio-economic status or relative income is often advanced as an explanation, but studies using only macro-data on average happiness and per capita GDP obviously cannot explore this factor, while also omitting numerous important individual variables such as health, age, education and others, which do actually change in the aggregate over time. Another possible factor that could offset the benefits of growing real incomes is the widely observed decline in many components of social capital, such as community, personal and family relationships, although these issues are beyond the scope of this paper. It thus seems appropriate to use available large panel data sets, which follow individuals over time, to examine the effects of economic growth on their well-being, while controlling for both individual fixed effects and changing characteristics recorded in the survey data. A pioneering attempt by Pfaff and Hirata (2013), using German and UK panels, finds no effect of regional per capita output or growth rates on individual life satisfaction in the presence of numerous controls, including individual fixed effects. One problem is that they control for

3 age with the commonly-used quadratic form, but this misses the sharp downturn in LS in old age. They find the usual strong effect of households own income, on LS, though on average household income will reflect aggregate or regional growth. They conclude that Easterlin s hypothesis cannot be rejected. Here we find significant differences in the results when we use unconstrained individual age dummies instead of a quadratic in age. We also test directly for the influence of relative income, defined here as the ratio of own income to the average income of a peer group, consisting of individuals of similar age, education and region. This ratio should exclude the effects of economic growth on all individual incomes, so allowing for maximal effect of growth proxies. Alternatively, we include own income and comparison (or peer group) income separately. 2. Data and methodology Our main data 1 are taken from Waves 6-10 and of the British Household Panel Survey, (BHPS), covering a period that runs from 1996/07 to 2008/09. We use data for 122,366 observations across 21,759 individuals, with those cases where there are missing values excluded. As usual, we note the deliberate over-sampling of the smaller nations of the UK since Wave 9 so that about half of the individuals in the BHPS are from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, compared to less than 20% in the overall population. Regional Gross Value Added (GVA) data from the Office for National Statistics are also used, mainly at the NUTS2 level that splits the UK into 13 main regions 2 (10 in England, plus Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland). As noted by Pfaff and Hirata (2013), BHPS 1 The earlier waves of the BHPS (up to Wave 10) were limited in coverage to Great Britain. The full United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland) is covered in Waves BHPS data are available via the UK Data Service (formerly the UK Data Archive). 2 A tiny number of observations for the Channel Islands are excluded.

4 interviews for a given wave actually spill across two different calendar years: since GVA data refer to a particular calendar year, it would seem appropriate to consider GVA data with a one period lag (otherwise it might refer to a year that partly pre-dates the BHPS interview). In fact, this turns out to be somewhat problematic for Wave 6 (where most interviews took place in 1997) because there is a break in the GVA data series between 1996 and 1997 (so that strictly comparable GVA data for 1996 are unavailable). Our chosen measure of GVA per capita is deflated simply by way of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for all items (series D7BT). In the Appendix, Figure 1 demonstrates the lack of an obvious time trend in life satisfaction across the BHPS sample (over the period when life satisfaction is included). Our sample is limited to Waves 6-10 and 12-18, because of the absence of life satisfaction from the dataset outside those waves. A more detailed (region by region) plot could offer limited hints at some trends with London, Scotland and Wales as candidates for an upward trend. However, in the main, such a plot suffers from difficulties in readability to the extent that it has been omitted. Meanwhile, Figure 2 shows the expected initial upward trends in real regional GVA per capita until a downturn in 2007/08 that is in keeping with the start of events that triggered the Great Recession. The clear supremacy of Greater London on this GVA per capita measure is also totally unsurprising (as is the presence of SE England as runner up). A plausible hypothesis is that those with higher education, who generally have the best-paid and most interesting jobs, would be most likely to enjoy increasing life satisfaction with higher incomes, so we split the sample into three groups with higher (ISCED categories 5a and 6), middle (ISCED categories 3a and 5b) and low (ISCED categories primary, secondary and 3c) education. Raw plots of LS by education category are shown in Appendix 3, ignoring a relatively small number of observations from the later months of Wave 6 interviewing. The

5 most obvious trend is that the highly educated (top 13% or so) start with lower than average LS, but this changes to the extent that they have the highest LS by Wave 18. Our estimation approach is quite similar to that of Pfaff and Hirata (2013) certainly in that we use Fixed Effects estimation of a Life Satisfaction equation with quite a number of controls many of which would be fairly standard when using BHPS data. These include marital status (including cohabiting), number of children, health status, education, labour market status, time spent in panel, whether year of last interview, log household size, age (full set of dummies), wave number and regions. Like Pfaff and Hirata (2013), we also follow Moulton (1990) in recognising the potential (cluster-related) effect of aggregate regressors on standard errors. 3. Results and discussion Results are shown in the Appendix. See Tables 1a, 1b and 2. Only columns 1 and 3 in Table 2 use a quadratic specification for age (linear and quadratic terms), whereas all other results use a full set of age dummies. Column 4 in Table 2 is intended primarily as a comparator to column 1 in Table 1b the significance of the difference term (to capture the growth in log deflated GVA per capita), and its negative sign, place it close to its unconstrained counterpart from column in Table 1b (where the lag of log deflated GVA per capita has a positive sign, similar size and slightly more statistical significance). For the crucial test of the effects of economic growth, we calculate both trend growth in regional output (gross value added in our BHPS panel for the UK), and deviations from the trend, and include the trend to directly test Easterlin s hypothesis, and also deviations to capture cyclical effects, particularly on employment and job-security. We do also control for

6 unemployment, which is of course not exclusively cyclical. As an alternative, we also test the effects of the lagged level of (log) real regional GVA per capita, and the growth of this variable. The results contain several surprises. Although average LS for the whole BHPS sample shows no clear upward trend over a period when real per capita GDP grew by around 30 percent, estimation with a large set of controls shows that the lagged trend value of real regional GVA has a positive effect on LS, albeit only significant at the 10% level. Lagged deviations from this trend also have a positive effect on LS: the point estimate is about twice as large, although it is again only significant at the 10% level. Since we control for relative income and many other factors, this result is surprising it suggests there must be other, offsetting factors that prevent average LS from increasing over the period. It also differs from Pfaff and Hirata (2013), and in contrast to their results, does not appear to support the Easterlin Paradox. In the subsamples by level of education we find more surprises in the high education group. None of relative income, GVA trend or deviations from trend were significant. In the medium education sample, both relative income and the GVA trend were significant and positive, but deviations from trend were insignificant. Only in the low education group, were deviations from trend GVA significant. This is as expected because this group has the highest unemployment and lowest job-security, both influenced by cyclical movements of the economy. However, trend GVA was insignificant, and relative income only borderline significant. In other specifications including own income, or both own income and comparison income separately, the former is as usual strongly significant and positive. However, and in contrast to Pfaff and Hirata (2013), a positive and significant effect of trend GVA growth, or its

7 lagged level, remains robust in all versions. Thus in one sense we seem to have gone beyond just rejecting Easterlin by finding an additional positive effect of growth, even when controlling for rising household incomes. On the hand, since average LS does not increase over our time period in accord with Easterlin, our results suggest that the offsetting negative effects of economic growth or associated social change are even more important than hitherto suspected. Exploring these factors remains an important topic for future research. References Easterlin, R.A., Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? In: David, P.A., Reder, M.W. (eds.), Nations and Households in Economic Growth: Essays in Honour of Moses Abramowitz. Academic Press, New York, pp Easterlin, R.A., Happiness and Economic Growth: The Evidence. IZA DP No Moulton, B. R., An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Units. Review of Economics and Statistics 72(2), Pfaff, T., Hirata, J., Testing the Easterlin hypothesis with panel data: The dynamic relationship between life satisfaction and economic growth in Germany and in the UK. Centre for Interdisciplinary Economics, Working Paper 4/2013.

8 Appendix 5.50 Figure 1: Life Satisfaction, BHPS, Waves 6-10 & GB, then UK

9 35,000 Figure 2: Regional Gross Value Added per Capita, deflated by CPI, ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 NE England NW England YorksHum East Midlands West Midlands East of England London SE England SW England Wales Scotland N Ireland 10,

10 5.40 Figure 3: Life Satisfaction by education, BHPS, Waves 7-10 & Low Education Middle Education High Education All Education Levels

11 Table 1a (1) (2) (3) (4) UK, BHPS, Waves 6-10, all Low Education Medium Education High Education Fixed Effects Household income 0.034*** 0.033*** 0.038*** (4.99) (3.09) (3.78) (0.92) Comparison income (1.63) (0.84) (1.01) (1.16) Lagged trend, log GVA per capita (deflated) 0.159* *** (1.80) (0.63) (2.68) (0.13) Lagged deviation from trend, deflated log GVA/capita * (0.85) (1.75) (-0.42) (-0.11) Observations 122,366 68,366 37,876 16,124 Number of persons 21,759 13,016 7,081 2,869 Adj. R-squared Dependent variable: Life-Satisfaction. Controls for marital status (including cohabiting), number of children, health status, education, labour market status, time in panel, year of last interview, household size, full set of age dummies, wave number and regions are included. Standard errors clustered at the individual level, robust t-statistics in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Table 1b (1) (2) (3) (4) UK, BHPS, Waves 6-10, all Low Education Medium Education High Education Fixed Effects Household income 0.034*** 0.033*** 0.038*** (4.99) (3.08) (3.77) (0.92) Comparison income (1.63) (0.84) (0.98) (1.16) Lagged log of GVA per capita (deflated) 0.160** ** (1.96) (1.42) (2.40) (0.10) Observations 122,366 68,366 37,876 16,124 Number of persons 21,759 13,016 7,081 2,869 Adj. R-squared

12 Table 2 (1) (2) (3) (4) UK, BHPS, Waves 6-10, all, Quadratic age all, income ratio all, income ratio and Quadratic age all, using difference (GVA growth) Fixed Effects Household income 0.033*** 0.034*** (4.99) (5.00) Comparison income *** (-4.61) (1.62) Income ratio 0.019*** 0.022*** (2.80) 3.33 Lagged trend, log GVA per capita (deflated) 0.155* 0.159* 0.157* (1.75) (1.73) (1.76) Lagged deviation from trend, deflated log GVA/capita (1.02) (0.85) (0.97) Difference in log GVA per capita (deflated) * (-1.78) Observations 122, , , ,366 Number of persons 21,759 21,759 21,759 21,759 Adj. R-squared

Education, Income and Happiness: Panel Evidence for the UK

Education, Income and Happiness: Panel Evidence for the UK DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11185 Education, Income and Happiness: Panel Evidence for the UK Felix FitzRoy Michael Nolan NOVEMBER 2017 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11185 Education, Income

More information

The Relative Income Hypothesis: A comparison of methods.

The Relative Income Hypothesis: A comparison of methods. The Relative Income Hypothesis: A comparison of methods. Sarah Brown, Daniel Gray and Jennifer Roberts ISSN 1749-8368 SERPS no. 2015006 March 2015 The Relative Income Hypothesis: A comparison of methods.

More information

Adaptation, Anticipation and Social Interactions in Happiness: An Integrated Error-Correction Approach. Maarten Vendrik Maastricht University IZA

Adaptation, Anticipation and Social Interactions in Happiness: An Integrated Error-Correction Approach. Maarten Vendrik Maastricht University IZA Adaptation, Anticipation and Social Interactions in Happiness: An Integrated Error-Correction Approach Maarten Vendrik Maastricht University IZA Research area Dynamics of happiness of individual people

More information

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MAKING SENSE OF THE LABOR MARKET HEIGHT PREMIUM: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MAKING SENSE OF THE LABOR MARKET HEIGHT PREMIUM: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MAKING SENSE OF THE LABOR MARKET HEIGHT PREMIUM: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY Anne Case Christina Paxson Mahnaz Islam Working Paper 14007 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14007

More information

Pensioners Incomes Series: An analysis of trends in Pensioner Incomes: 1994/ /16

Pensioners Incomes Series: An analysis of trends in Pensioner Incomes: 1994/ /16 Pensioners Incomes Series: An analysis of trends in Pensioner Incomes: 1994/95-215/16 Annual Financial year 215/16 Published: 16 March 217 United Kingdom This report examines how much money pensioners

More information

Characteristics of the euro area business cycle in the 1990s

Characteristics of the euro area business cycle in the 1990s Characteristics of the euro area business cycle in the 1990s As part of its monetary policy strategy, the ECB regularly monitors the development of a wide range of indicators and assesses their implications

More information

econstor Make Your Publications Visible.

econstor Make Your Publications Visible. econstor Make Your Publications Visible. A Service of Wirtschaft Centre zbwleibniz-informationszentrum Economics FitzRoy, Felix R.; Nolan, Michael A.; Steinhardt, Max F.; Ulph, David Article Testing the

More information

Survey of Residential Landlords

Survey of Residential Landlords Survey of Residential Landlords Fourth Quarter 2014 REPORT O M Carey Jones 5 Henshaw Lane, Yeadon, Leeds, LS19 7RW Telephone: 0113 250 6411 CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION & BACKGROUND 4 2. METHODOLOGY 5

More information

How exogenous is exogenous income? A longitudinal study of lottery winners in the UK

How exogenous is exogenous income? A longitudinal study of lottery winners in the UK How exogenous is exogenous income? A longitudinal study of lottery winners in the UK Dita Eckardt London School of Economics Nattavudh Powdthavee CEP, London School of Economics and MIASER, University

More information

Ruhm, C. (1991). Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements? The American Economic Review, Vol. 81(1):

Ruhm, C. (1991). Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements? The American Economic Review, Vol. 81(1): Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements? By: Christopher J. Ruhm Ruhm, C. (1991). Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements? The American Economic Review, Vol. 81(1): 319-324. Made

More information

Age, Life-Satisfaction, and Relative Income: Insights from the UK and Germany

Age, Life-Satisfaction, and Relative Income: Insights from the UK and Germany D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E S IZA DP No. 6045 Age, Life-Satisfaction, and Relative Income: Insights from the UK and Germany Felix R. FitzRoy Michael Nolan Max F. Steinhardt October 2011 Forschungsinstitut

More information

Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections

Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections Supporting information (For Online Publication Only) Ari Hyytinen University of Jyväskylä, School of Business and Economics (JSBE) Jaakko

More information

ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords

ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords Prepared for The Association of Residential Letting Agents ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords March 2013 Prepared by O M Carey Jones 5 Henshaw Lane, Yeadon, Leeds, LS19 7RW March 2013 CONTENTS

More information

Using the British Household Panel Survey to explore changes in housing tenure in England

Using the British Household Panel Survey to explore changes in housing tenure in England Using the British Household Panel Survey to explore changes in housing tenure in England Tom Sefton Contents Data...1 Results...2 Tables...6 CASE/117 February 2007 Centre for Analysis of Exclusion London

More information

Do Domestic Chinese Firms Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment?

Do Domestic Chinese Firms Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment? Do Domestic Chinese Firms Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment? Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of California Working Paper Series Vol. 2006-30 December 2006 The views expressed in this publication are those

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: December 2015 Released: January Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: December 2015 Released: January Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: December 2015 Released: January 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850

More information

Regional Business Cycles In the United States

Regional Business Cycles In the United States Regional Business Cycles In the United States By Gary L. Shelley Peer Reviewed Dr. Gary L. Shelley (shelley@etsu.edu) is an Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Finance, East Tennessee

More information

2. Employment, retirement and pensions

2. Employment, retirement and pensions 2. Employment, retirement and pensions Rowena Crawford Institute for Fiscal Studies Gemma Tetlow Institute for Fiscal Studies The analysis in this chapter shows that: Employment between the ages of 55

More information

Mergers & Acquisitions in Banking: The effect of the Economic Business Cycle

Mergers & Acquisitions in Banking: The effect of the Economic Business Cycle Mergers & Acquisitions in Banking: The effect of the Economic Business Cycle Student name: Lucy Hazen Master student Finance at Tilburg University Administration number: 507779 E-mail address: 1st Supervisor:

More information

Profit-Sharing in OECD Countries: a Review and Some Evidence

Profit-Sharing in OECD Countries: a Review and Some Evidence Business Strategy Review, 1997, Volume 8 Issue 4, pp 27-32 Profit-Sharing in OECD Countries: a Review and Some Evidence Saul Estrin, Virginie Pérotin, Andrew Robinson and Nick Wilson This article starts

More information

Testing the Tunnel Effect: Comparison, Age and Happiness in UK and German Panels. School of Economics & Finance Discussion Papers

Testing the Tunnel Effect: Comparison, Age and Happiness in UK and German Panels. School of Economics & Finance Discussion Papers School of Economics & Finance Discussion Paper Series issn 0962-403 http://ideas.repec.org/s/san/wpecon.html info: econ@st-andrews.ac.uk School of Economics & Finance Discussion Papers esting the unnel

More information

Unemployment and Happiness

Unemployment and Happiness Unemployment and Happiness Fumio Ohtake Osaka University Are unemployed people unhappier than employed people? To answer this question, this paper presents an extensive review of previous overseas studies

More information

ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords

ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords Prepared for The Association of Residential Letting Agents ARLA Survey of Residential Investment Landlords June 2012 Prepared by O M Carey Jones 5 Henshaw Lane, Yeadon, Leeds, LS19 7RW June 2012 CONTENTS

More information

Advanced Topic 7: Exchange Rate Determination IV

Advanced Topic 7: Exchange Rate Determination IV Advanced Topic 7: Exchange Rate Determination IV John E. Floyd University of Toronto May 10, 2013 Our major task here is to look at the evidence regarding the effects of unanticipated money shocks on real

More information

Public-private sector pay differential in UK: A recent update

Public-private sector pay differential in UK: A recent update Public-private sector pay differential in UK: A recent update by D H Blackaby P D Murphy N C O Leary A V Staneva No. 2013-01 Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series Public-private sector pay differential

More information

EstimatingFederalIncomeTaxBurdens. (PSID)FamiliesUsingtheNationalBureau of EconomicResearchTAXSIMModel

EstimatingFederalIncomeTaxBurdens. (PSID)FamiliesUsingtheNationalBureau of EconomicResearchTAXSIMModel ISSN1084-1695 Aging Studies Program Paper No. 12 EstimatingFederalIncomeTaxBurdens forpanelstudyofincomedynamics (PSID)FamiliesUsingtheNationalBureau of EconomicResearchTAXSIMModel Barbara A. Butrica and

More information

Market Conditions Review

Market Conditions Review Market Conditions Review WAVE 3 OCTOBER 0 FIRE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Market Conditions Review Summary Growth in the fire sector continues with more survey respondents continuing to report increases in invitations

More information

Capital allocation in Indian business groups

Capital allocation in Indian business groups Capital allocation in Indian business groups Remco van der Molen Department of Finance University of Groningen The Netherlands This version: June 2004 Abstract The within-group reallocation of capital

More information

Table 1: Total NI R&D expenditure in cash terms ( million)

Table 1: Total NI R&D expenditure in cash terms ( million) Table 1: Total NI R&D expenditure in cash terms ( million) Total expenditure on R&D (of which) Expenditure by Businesses 2012 2013 2014 616.0 635.9 602.3 453.2 472.6 403.5 Expenditure by Higher 1 Education

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: September 2015 Released: October Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: September 2015 Released: October Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: September 2015 Released: October 2015 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324

More information

The Time Cost of Documents to Trade

The Time Cost of Documents to Trade The Time Cost of Documents to Trade Mohammad Amin* May, 2011 The paper shows that the number of documents required to export and import tend to increase the time cost of shipments. However, this relationship

More information

Age, Life-satisfaction, and Relative Income

Age, Life-satisfaction, and Relative Income Age, Life-satisfaction, and Relative Income Felix FitzRoy, Michael Nolan, Max Friedrich Steinhardt HWWI Research Paper 110 Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) 2011 ISSN 1861-504X Corresponding

More information

What accounts for the success of regions? Examining the factors associated with economic development

What accounts for the success of regions? Examining the factors associated with economic development What accounts for the success of regions? Examining the factors associated with economic development Gerald Holtham* and Robert Huggins + *Cardiff School of Management, Cardiff Metropolitan University,

More information

Getting Mexico to Grow With NAFTA: The World Bank's Analysis. October 13, 2004

Getting Mexico to Grow With NAFTA: The World Bank's Analysis. October 13, 2004 cepr CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH Issue Brief Getting Mexico to Grow With NAFTA: The World Bank's Analysis Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick, and Dean Baker 1 October 13, 2004 CENTER FOR ECONOMIC

More information

BBPA. Local impact of the beer and pub sector. A report for the British Beer and Pub Association

BBPA. Local impact of the beer and pub sector. A report for the British Beer and Pub Association Local impact of the beer and pub sector A report for the British Beer and Pub Association Contents Executive summary... 1 Beer and pub activity provides significant benefits... 1 Estimated impact of each

More information

UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Q3 2013

UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Q3 2013 UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR 213 BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE WELCOME Businesses are feeling at their most confident since Q2 21, with that confidence yet again registering across all sectors and all regions.

More information

Income inequality and the growth of redistributive spending in the U.S. states: Is there a link?

Income inequality and the growth of redistributive spending in the U.S. states: Is there a link? Draft Version: May 27, 2017 Word Count: 3128 words. SUPPLEMENTARY ONLINE MATERIAL: Income inequality and the growth of redistributive spending in the U.S. states: Is there a link? Appendix 1 Bayesian posterior

More information

Structural Changes in the Maltese Economy

Structural Changes in the Maltese Economy Structural Changes in the Maltese Economy Dr. Aaron George Grech Modelling and Research Department, Central Bank of Malta, Castille Place, Valletta, Malta Email: grechga@centralbankmalta.org Doi:10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n5p423

More information

Germany. Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY

Germany. Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY Germany Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY Finance Country Overview: Germany European Investment Bank (EIB), 2017. All rights reserved. About the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) The Finance is a unique, EU-wide,

More information

Economic Freedom and Government Efficiency: Recent Evidence from China

Economic Freedom and Government Efficiency: Recent Evidence from China Department of Economics Working Paper Series Economic Freedom and Government Efficiency: Recent Evidence from China Shaomeng Jia Yang Zhou Working Paper No. 17-26 This paper can be found at the College

More information

Comment on Counting the World s Poor, by Angus Deaton

Comment on Counting the World s Poor, by Angus Deaton Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Comment on Counting the World s Poor, by Angus Deaton Martin Ravallion There is almost

More information

How would an expansion of IDA reduce poverty and further other development goals?

How would an expansion of IDA reduce poverty and further other development goals? Measuring IDA s Effectiveness Key Results How would an expansion of IDA reduce poverty and further other development goals? We first tackle the big picture impact on growth and poverty reduction and then

More information

Macroeconomics Principles, Applications, and Tools O'Sullivan Sheffrin Perez Eighth Edition

Macroeconomics Principles, Applications, and Tools O'Sullivan Sheffrin Perez Eighth Edition Macroeconomics Principles, Applications, and Tools O'Sullivan Sheffrin Perez Eighth Edition Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the

More information

Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different?

Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different? Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different? Marianne Bitler Department of Economics, UC Irvine and NBER mbitler@uci.edu Hilary Hoynes Department of Economics and

More information

Relative regional consumer price levels of goods and services, UK: 2016

Relative regional consumer price levels of goods and services, UK: 2016 Article Relative regional consumer price levels of goods and services, UK: 2016 UK relative regional consumer price levels (RRCPLs) of goods and services for 2016. They provide an indication of a region's

More information

The Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the UK

The Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the UK Fiscal Studies (1996) vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 1-36 The Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the UK SUSAN HARKNESS 1 I. INTRODUCTION Rising female labour-force participation has been one of the most striking

More information

INTERNATIONAL DATA ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON THE ARTS

INTERNATIONAL DATA ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON THE ARTS Research Division Note #74 January 2000 INTERNATIONAL DATA ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON THE ARTS This note, Research Division Note #74, summarizes the latest research comparing government (public) arts expenditures

More information

Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? The Hong Kong case

Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? The Hong Kong case Economics Letters 58 (1998) 77 8 Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? The Hong Kong case Chengze Simon Fan *, Phoebe Wong a, b a Department of Economics, Lingnan College, Tuen Mun, Hong

More information

The new state of donation: Three decades of household giving to charity

The new state of donation: Three decades of household giving to charity The new state of donation: Three decades of household giving to charity 1978 2008 Executive Summary Edd Cowley, CMPO, University of Bristol Tom McKenzie, CGAP, Cass Business School Cathy Pharoah,CGAP,

More information

Labor Participation and Gender Inequality in Indonesia. Preliminary Draft DO NOT QUOTE

Labor Participation and Gender Inequality in Indonesia. Preliminary Draft DO NOT QUOTE Labor Participation and Gender Inequality in Indonesia Preliminary Draft DO NOT QUOTE I. Introduction Income disparities between males and females have been identified as one major issue in the process

More information

Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum.

Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum. Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum August, 2008 Philip Oreopoulos Department of Economics, University of British

More information

Monetary policy perceptions and risk-adjusted returns: Have investors from G-7 countries benefitted?

Monetary policy perceptions and risk-adjusted returns: Have investors from G-7 countries benefitted? Monetary policy perceptions and risk-adjusted returns: Have investors from G-7 countries benefitted? Abstract We examine the effect of the implied federal funds rate on several proxies for riskadjusted

More information

NORTH WEST QUARTERLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. August 2012

NORTH WEST QUARTERLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. August 2012 NORTH WEST QUARTERLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK August 2012 North West Quarterly Economic Outlook August 2012 Quarterly Economic Outlook Through the Regional Leaders Board the North West s five Local Enterprise

More information

The economic impact of the UK Maritime Services Sector

The economic impact of the UK Maritime Services Sector The economic impact of the UK Maritime Services Sector A Report for Maritime UK (including regional breakdown) February 2013 Contents 1 Executive summary...2 2 Introduction...5 2.1 The channels of economic

More information

Government Consumption Spending Inhibits Economic Growth in the OECD Countries

Government Consumption Spending Inhibits Economic Growth in the OECD Countries Government Consumption Spending Inhibits Economic Growth in the OECD Countries Michael Connolly,* University of Miami Cheng Li, University of Miami July 2014 Abstract Robert Mundell is the widely acknowledged

More information

The Index of Happiness and Economic Growth

The Index of Happiness and Economic Growth The Index of Happiness and Economic Growth Elena Goldman Department of Finance and Economics Lubin School of Business, Pace University New York, NY 10038 e-mail: egoldman@pace.edu, tel: 212-618-6516 Draft

More information

The relationship between output and unemployment in France and United Kingdom

The relationship between output and unemployment in France and United Kingdom The relationship between output and unemployment in France and United Kingdom Gaétan Stephan 1 University of Rennes 1, CREM April 2012 (Preliminary draft) Abstract We model the relation between output

More information

Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum.

Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum. Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education When Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter: Corrigendum August, 2008 Philip Oreopoulos Department of Economics, University of British

More information

Estimating a Monetary Policy Rule for India

Estimating a Monetary Policy Rule for India MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Estimating a Monetary Policy Rule for India Michael Hutchison and Rajeswari Sengupta and Nirvikar Singh University of California Santa Cruz 3. March 2010 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21106/

More information

Social capital Predicts Happiness over Time: Evidence from Macro and Micro Data

Social capital Predicts Happiness over Time: Evidence from Macro and Micro Data 10 ISQOLS Conference, Bangkok, December 8-11, 2010 Social capital Predicts Happiness over Time: Evidence from Macro and Micro Data Stefano Bartolini University of Siena CEPS/Instead In collaboration with:

More information

4 managerial workers) face a risk well below the average. About half of all those below the minimum wage are either commerce insurance and finance wor

4 managerial workers) face a risk well below the average. About half of all those below the minimum wage are either commerce insurance and finance wor 4 managerial workers) face a risk well below the average. About half of all those below the minimum wage are either commerce insurance and finance workers, or service workers two categories holding less

More information

STATE PENSIONS AND THE WELL-BEING OF

STATE PENSIONS AND THE WELL-BEING OF STATE PENSIONS AND THE WELL-BEING OF THE ELDERLY IN THE UK James Banks Richard Blundell Carl Emmerson Zoë Oldfield THE INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES WP06/14 State Pensions and the Well-Being of the Elderly

More information

Market Timing Does Work: Evidence from the NYSE 1

Market Timing Does Work: Evidence from the NYSE 1 Market Timing Does Work: Evidence from the NYSE 1 Devraj Basu Alexander Stremme Warwick Business School, University of Warwick November 2005 address for correspondence: Alexander Stremme Warwick Business

More information

HYPERTENSION AND LIFE SATISFACTION: A COMMENT AND REPLICATION OF BLANCHFLOWER AND OSWALD (2007)

HYPERTENSION AND LIFE SATISFACTION: A COMMENT AND REPLICATION OF BLANCHFLOWER AND OSWALD (2007) HYPERTENSION AND LIFE SATISFACTION: A COMMENT AND REPLICATION OF BLANCHFLOWER AND OSWALD (2007) Stefania Mojon-Azzi Alfonso Sousa-Poza December 2007 Discussion Paper no. 2007-44 Department of Economics

More information

The Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales

The Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales The Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales VV Chari, LJ Christiano and P Kehoe January 2, 27 In this note, we examine the findings of Gertler and Gilchrist, ( Monetary Policy, Business

More information

The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?

The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall? The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall? Gaëtan Stephan, Julien Lecumberry To cite this version: Gaëtan Stephan, Julien Lecumberry. The German unemployment since the

More information

Public Sector Statistics

Public Sector Statistics 3 Public Sector Statistics 3.1 Introduction In 1913 the Sixteenth Amendment to the US Constitution gave Congress the legal authority to tax income. In so doing, it made income taxation a permanent feature

More information

Discussion. Benoît Carmichael

Discussion. Benoît Carmichael Discussion Benoît Carmichael The two studies presented in the first session of the conference take quite different approaches to the question of price indexes. On the one hand, Coulombe s study develops

More information

National Child Development Study and 1970 British Cohort Study Technical Report:

National Child Development Study and 1970 British Cohort Study Technical Report: National Child Development Study and 1970 British Cohort Study Technical Report: Changes in the NCDS and BCS70 Populations and Samples over Time 1st Edition October 2004 By Ian Plewis, Lisa Calderwood,

More information

For Online Publication Additional results

For Online Publication Additional results For Online Publication Additional results This appendix reports additional results that are briefly discussed but not reported in the published paper. We start by reporting results on the potential costs

More information

BBPA Local impact of the beer and pub sector 2010/11

BBPA Local impact of the beer and pub sector 2010/11 Local impact of the beer and pub sector 2010/11 A report for the British Beer and Pub Association () Contents Executive summary... 1 The beer and pub sector provides significant benefits to the UK economy......

More information

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, DC 20502

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, DC 20502 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, DC 20502 Prepared Remarks of Edward P. Lazear, Chairman Productivity and Wages At the National Association of Business Economics

More information

The number of unemployed people

The number of unemployed people Economic & Labour Market Review Vol 3 No February 9 FEATURE Debra Leaker Trends since the 197s SUMMARY occurs when an individual is available and seeking work but is without work. There are various causes

More information

Projected Cost Pressures for Scottish Local Government

Projected Cost Pressures for Scottish Local Government Projected Cost Pressures for Scottish Local Government The Improvement Service ihub 11 Quarrywood Court Livingston EH54 6AX research@improvementservice.org.uk http://www.improvementservice.org.uk/ Contents

More information

1) The Effect of Recent Tax Changes on Taxable Income

1) The Effect of Recent Tax Changes on Taxable Income 1) The Effect of Recent Tax Changes on Taxable Income In the most recent issue of the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Bradley Heim published a paper called The Effect of Recent Tax Changes on

More information

The changing face of public sector employment

The changing face of public sector employment Economic & Labour Market Review Vol 4 No 7 July 2010 ARTICLE David Matthews The changing face of public sector employment 1999 2009 SUMMARY This article presents an analysis of public sector employment

More information

GCE Economics. Mark Scheme for June Unit H060/02: Themes in Macroeconomics. Advanced Subsidiary GCE. Oxford Cambridge and RSA Examinations

GCE Economics. Mark Scheme for June Unit H060/02: Themes in Macroeconomics. Advanced Subsidiary GCE. Oxford Cambridge and RSA Examinations GCE Economics Unit H060/02: Themes in Macroeconomics Advanced Subsidiary GCE Mark Scheme for June 2016 Oxford Cambridge and RSA Examinations OCR (Oxford Cambridge and RSA) is a leading UK awarding body,

More information

SMEs and UK growth: the opportunity for regional economies. November 2018

SMEs and UK growth: the opportunity for regional economies. November 2018 1 SMEs and UK growth: the opportunity for regional economies November 2018 2 Table of contents FOREWORD 3 1: INTRODUCTION 4 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 3: SMES AND UK REGIONAL GROWTH 7 Contribution of SMEs

More information

Consumer Debt and Money Report Q making business sense

Consumer Debt and Money Report Q making business sense Consumer Debt and Money Report Q3 2012 3 making business sense Executive summary & commentary The StepChange Debt Charity Consumer Debt and Money Report Q3 2012 expands on previous reports to build a nuanced

More information

Exploring the rise of self-employment in the modern economy

Exploring the rise of self-employment in the modern economy Exploring the rise of self-employment in the modern economy A guide to demographics and other trends in the UK s self-employed workforce in 2017 1 About IPSE IPSE is the largest association of independent

More information

Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Mauritius

Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Mauritius Illinois State University ISU ReD: Research and edata Master's Theses - Economics Economics 5-8-2007 Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Mauritius Rebecca Hodel Follow this and additional works

More information

Memorandum for the Work and Pensions Committee

Memorandum for the Work and Pensions Committee Memorandum for the Work and Pensions Committee The future of Jobcentre Plus inquiry Interactive PDF The National Audit Office scrutinises public spending for Parliament and is independent of government.

More information

Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle *

Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle * Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle * Betsey Stevenson The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania CESifo and NBER betsey.stevenson@wharton.upenn.edu http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/betseys

More information

Economic Standard of Living

Economic Standard of Living DESIRED OUTCOMES New Zealand is a prosperous society where all people have access to adequate incomes and enjoy standards of living that mean they can fully participate in society and have choice about

More information

Time use, emotional well-being and unemployment: Evidence from longitudinal data

Time use, emotional well-being and unemployment: Evidence from longitudinal data Time use, emotional well-being and unemployment: Evidence from longitudinal data Alan B. Krueger CEA, Woodrow Wilson School and Economics Dept., Princeton University Andreas Mueller Columbia University

More information

Working Paper No Accounting for the unemployment decrease in Australia. William Mitchell 1. April 2005

Working Paper No Accounting for the unemployment decrease in Australia. William Mitchell 1. April 2005 Working Paper No. 05-04 Accounting for the unemployment decrease in Australia William Mitchell 1 April 2005 Centre of Full Employment and Equity The University of Newcastle, Callaghan NSW 2308, Australia

More information

Ireland. Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY

Ireland. Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY Ireland Overview EIB INVESTMENT SURVEY Finance Country Overview: Ireland European Investment Bank (EIB), 2017. All rights reserved. About the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) The Finance is a unique, EU-wide,

More information

There is poverty convergence

There is poverty convergence There is poverty convergence Abstract Martin Ravallion ("Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?" American Economic Review, 102(1): 504-23; 2012) presents evidence against the existence of convergence in

More information

Equity, Vacancy, and Time to Sale in Real Estate.

Equity, Vacancy, and Time to Sale in Real Estate. Title: Author: Address: E-Mail: Equity, Vacancy, and Time to Sale in Real Estate. Thomas W. Zuehlke Department of Economics Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida 32306 U.S.A. tzuehlke@mailer.fsu.edu

More information

Impact of Unemployment and GDP on Inflation: Imperial study of Pakistan s Economy

Impact of Unemployment and GDP on Inflation: Imperial study of Pakistan s Economy International Journal of Current Research in Multidisciplinary (IJCRM) ISSN: 2456-0979 Vol. 2, No. 6, (July 17), pp. 01-10 Impact of Unemployment and GDP on Inflation: Imperial study of Pakistan s Economy

More information

DRIVING RELATIVE REGIONAL CONSUMER PRICE LEVELS OUT OF THE UK PURCHASING POWER PARITIES

DRIVING RELATIVE REGIONAL CONSUMER PRICE LEVELS OUT OF THE UK PURCHASING POWER PARITIES DRIVING RELATIVE REGIONAL CONSUMER PRICE LEVELS OUT OF THE UK PURCHASING POWER PARITIES Paper prepared for joint UNECE-ILO meeting on consumer price indices 30 th May to 1 st June 2012. Sharne Bailey,

More information

Legal-political factors and the historical evolution of the finance-growth link

Legal-political factors and the historical evolution of the finance-growth link CEPR/ÖNB Workshop on International Financial Integration: The Role of Intermediaries, Vienna, 30 September - 1 October 005 Legal-political factors and the historical evolution of the finance-growth link

More information

Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Knowledge Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from Korean Firms Patent and Patent Citations

Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Knowledge Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from Korean Firms Patent and Patent Citations THE JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN ECONOMY, Vol. 5, No. 1 (Spring 2004), 47-67 Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Knowledge Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from Korean Firms Patent and Patent Citations Jaehwa

More information

THE DISTRIBUTION AND DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING IN THE UK:

THE DISTRIBUTION AND DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING IN THE UK: THE DISTRIBUTION AND DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING IN THE UK: An analysis of recession using multidimensional indicators of living standards (MILS) Summary Findings November 08 Marco Pomati

More information

Labour market statistics: UK regions and countries

Labour market statistics: UK regions and countries BRIEFING PAPER Number 7950, 7 February 2018 Labour market statistics: UK regions and countries By Andrew Powell Contents: 1. Employment 2. Unemployment 3. Types of employment 4. Average Earnings 5. Notes

More information

This is a repository copy of Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy.

This is a repository copy of Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy. This is a repository copy of Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/9880/ Monograph: Gascoigne, J. and Turner, P.

More information

Teach First Teachers Leadership Survey

Teach First Teachers Leadership Survey Teach First Teachers Leadership Survey Methodology: ComRes interviewed 800 teachers in Great Britain online between 6 th and 23 rd February 2018. Data were weighted to be demographically representative

More information

CLS Cohort. Studies. Centre for Longitudinal. Studies CLS. Nonresponse Weight Adjustments Using Multiple Imputation for the UK Millennium Cohort Study

CLS Cohort. Studies. Centre for Longitudinal. Studies CLS. Nonresponse Weight Adjustments Using Multiple Imputation for the UK Millennium Cohort Study CLS CLS Cohort Studies Working Paper 2010/6 Centre for Longitudinal Studies Nonresponse Weight Adjustments Using Multiple Imputation for the UK Millennium Cohort Study John W. McDonald Sosthenes C. Ketende

More information

4 Regional growth trends and prospects 1

4 Regional growth trends and prospects 1 4 Regional growth trends and prospects 1 Key points has consistently outperformed other UK regions for most of the past two decades in terms of economic growth, both before and after the global financial

More information

Demographics and Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe

Demographics and Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe Demographics and Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe Carlo Favero (Bocconi University, IGIER) Vincenzo Galasso (Bocconi University, IGIER, CEPR & CESIfo) Growth in Europe?, Marseille, September 2015

More information