Director Erlinda M. Capones Social Development Staff 10 December 2008

Transcription

1 The Global Economic Crisis and the Philippine Economy Director Erlinda M. Capones Social Development Staff 10 December 2008 NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

2 Key Questions How will the global economic crisis impact on the economy? What sectors are the most vulnerable? What is the government s response to the global economic crisis?

3 Impact on the economy Actual Old* New** Old* New** Dubai oil, $/bbl Inflation (%) Forex (P/$) GIR, $Mn 33,751 35,696*** na na CAB, $Mn 6,301 1,707*** na na Remittances**** (%, g.r.) 13.2 na na 10 Goods Exports (% gr) Goods Imports (% gr) *** For GIR, latest actual as of October 2008; For CAB latest actual for January to June **** Not explicitly a part of the DBCC macroassumptions, the figures are BSP projections as of October 2008 Source: DBCC; *August 08 Emerging Estimates; **DBCC approval on 11Nov08

4 Impact on the economy Actual Old* New** Old* New** Real GNP Real GDP Nominal GNP, (PhP, Bn) Nominal GDP, 6648 (Php, Bn) Source: DBCC; *August Emerging Estimates; **DBCC emerging estimates approved on 11Nov08

5 Employment Situation (in percent) 1 st Quarter 2 nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter Employment Rate Underemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

6 1. Export Industries Vulnerable sectors 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures and Private Investments 3. OFWs vulnerable to displacement due to the financial crisis: OFWs who work in the US under temporary working visas; Seafarers in the cruise ships; Factory workers in South Korea, Taiwan and Macau; Household service workers in Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong 4. Commodity exports vulnerable jobs. Commodity exports vulnerable jobs Garments; Electronics; Wiring and harness; Coconut oil

7 Comprehensive Livelihood and Job Generation Plan 1. Labor sector action agenda A. Intervention programs and services for OFWs Deployment to emerging and niche foreign labor markets; Repatriation assistance Reintegration and livelihood enhancement for returning OFWs B. Commodity and export services workers Job placement facilitation Livelihood formation Emergency employment

8 2. Social services Continue programs that protect the poorest of the poor A. Social Protection Programs Social Insurance Social Welfare and Labor Market Interventions Social Safety Nets B. Accelerated Hunger-Mitigation Program (AHMP) Agrlculture Productivity Programs Village Food Terminals Tindahan Natin Outlets (Our Store Outlets) Food for School Program Microfinance

9 2. Social services C. Conditional Cash Transfer (Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program) Cash grant package Health Package: Php500/month or $10.10 per household for preventive health check-ups and vaccines Educational Package: Php300/month/child or $6.06 for a maximum of 3 children per household

10 2. Social Services D. KALAHI-CIDSS (Kapit-Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan) Linking Arms Against Poverty-Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services Project Implemented in the 42 poorest provinces nationwide Project objectives: Poverty reduction Community empowerment Improved local governance

11 SOCIAL PROTECTION FRAMEWORK Reduction of Poverty Reduction of Vulnerabilities Unemployment; underemployment; loss of income Social Protection Protecting the Poor & the Vulnerable from Risks RISKS Illnesses and health, disability; food insecurity, hunger & malnutrition; high population growth; poor quality education; community displacement Global Situation - Volatile energy prices - Increasing food prices - Vulnerability to disaster Damage to infrastructure, business, environmental degradation MITIGATING Social Insurance Health insurance (DOH,PHIC) Social insurance (GSIS,SSS) Crop insurance (Quedancor) STRATEGIES PREVENTIVE Social Welfare and Labor Market Interventions Basic social services i.e., health and nutrition, population management, education, social welfare, socialized housing (DOH, DepEd, DSWD, DOLE, HUDCC and the attached agencies) Conditional cash and in-kind transfer (DSWD, DepEd, DOH) Capacity building programs Program support (targeting, early warning system) Employment generation (DOLE) Skills dev t & training (TESDA) Labor & trade policies (DOLE, DTI) Agriculture support (DA, DAR) COPING Social Safety Nets Emergency Assistance (DSWD) Price subsidies (DSWD) Food subsidies (DSWD & DepEd) Emergency employment (DOLE) Retraining and emergency loans (TESDA, GSIS, SSS & HDMF)

12 Accelerated Hunger Mitigation Program (AHMP)

13 Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino (4Ps) Conditional Cash Transfer Program A poverty reduction strategy that provides cash assistance to extremely poor households to allow its members to meet human development goals. Invests to build nutritional and educational condition of children aged 0 to 14 since these factors are strongly associated with the poverty cycle in the country.

14 Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) CBMS can serve as the national targeting system in implementing pro-poor p programs; answering the questions: Who are the poor? Where are they located? And What are their urgent needs? CBMS can likewise be the monitoring system to track the progress and impact of anti-poverty interventions; and CBMS can help identify and design the critical and location-specific interventions needed to address extreme poverty during this economic crisis situation.

15 3. Strategies to boost growth A. INFRASTRUCTURE: Accelerate spending for fast, simple, small-scale and off-the-shelf infrastructure projects with no right-of-way problems (e.g. rural roads). Greater participation by GFIs, GOCCs, LGUs and the private sector. B.AGRICULTURE: Support AFMA and FIELDS programs for propoor growth; C. FISCAL: Improve revenue collection through better tax administration, passage of key legislation, rationalization of fiscal incentives, indexation of excise tax on sin products; D OUTSOURCING: Intensify marketing Philippine BPOs as the D. OUTSOURCING: Intensify marketing Philippine BPOs as the cost-cutting solution for US firms

16 3. Strategies to boost growth A. HOUSING: accelerated direct and indirect provision; B. EXPORTS: Encourage exporting firms to diversify, if innovate, and technologically upgrade their products; C. SMEs: accelerated lending in Sulong Program; D. INVESTMENT: Expand trade, investment, and tourism with China and attract investments from Middle East; E. Timely ypassage of the 2009 budget

17 Thank you NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY