Innovation, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade

Transcription

1 Innovation, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade Andrew Atkeson, UCLA and Minneapolis Fed Ariel Burstein, UCLA November 10, 2009 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

2 Introduction How do changes in international trade costs impact aggregate productivity and welfare? New Evidence and Theory: International trade impacts heterogeneous rms decisions to produce, export, and innovate. I Evidence: e.g. Bernard, Jensen, Redding, Schott (2007), Bustos (07), De Locker (07), Lileeva, Tre er (2007), Aw, Roberts, Xu (2009). I Theory: e.g. Melitz (2003), Helpman survey (2006) Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

3 Introduction How do changes in international trade costs impact aggregate productivity and welfare? New Evidence and Theory: International trade impacts heterogeneous rms decisions to produce, export, and innovate. I Evidence: e.g. Bernard, Jensen, Redding, Schott (2007), Bustos (07), De Locker (07), Lileeva, Tre er (2007), Aw, Roberts, Xu (2009). I Theory: e.g. Melitz (2003), Helpman survey (2006) Do considerations of impact of decline in trade costs on these decisions lead to new answers to the macro question? tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

4 Introduction How do changes in international trade costs impact aggregate productivity and welfare? New Evidence and Theory: International trade impacts heterogeneous rms decisions to produce, export, and innovate. I Evidence: e.g. Bernard, Jensen, Redding, Schott (2007), Bustos (07), De Locker (07), Lileeva, Tre er (2007), Aw, Roberts, Xu (2009). I Theory: e.g. Melitz (2003), Helpman survey (2006) Do considerations of impact of decline in trade costs on these decisions lead to new answers to the macro question? Important baseline model: Largely, No. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

5 Model Overview Heterogeneous rms produce di erentiated CES products, traded subject to xed and marginal costs of exporting (Melitz 2003). tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

6 Model Overview Heterogeneous rms produce di erentiated CES products, traded subject to xed and marginal costs of exporting (Melitz 2003). Model of innovation builds on Griliches (1979). Firms pro t opportunities determined by rm-speci c factor (productivity). Process innovation: Increase stock of speci c factor in existing rm. Product innovation: Create new rms with new initial stock of factor. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

7 Model Overview Heterogeneous rms produce di erentiated CES products, traded subject to xed and marginal costs of exporting (Melitz 2003). Model of innovation builds on Griliches (1979). Firms pro t opportunities determined by rm-speci c factor (productivity). Process innovation: Increase stock of speci c factor in existing rm. Product innovation: Create new rms with new initial stock of factor. Compute indirect e ect of change in marginal trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

8 Analytic results: Special cases 1 Baseline: Krugman All rms produce and export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation decisions. New varieties = product innovation. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

9 Analytic results: Special cases 1 Baseline: Krugman All rms produce and export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation decisions. New varieties = product innovation. 2 Baseline extended to have endogenous exit and productivity dynamics. Do endogenous exit and process innovation matter? tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

10 Analytic results: Special cases 1 Baseline: Krugman All rms produce and export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation decisions. New varieties = product innovation. 2 Baseline extended to have endogenous exit and productivity dynamics. Do endogenous exit and process innovation matter? 3 Melitz Fixed export cost implies only most productive rms export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation. Does reallocation of production from low to high productivity rms matter? tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

11 Analytic results: Special cases 1 Baseline: Krugman All rms produce and export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation decisions. New varieties = product innovation. 2 Baseline extended to have endogenous exit and productivity dynamics. Do endogenous exit and process innovation matter? 3 Melitz Fixed export cost implies only most productive rms export. No productivity dynamics implies no process innovation. Does reallocation of production from low to high productivity rms matter? 4 Endogenous process innovation and (exogenous) heterogeneity in exit and export decision. Does reallocation of process innovation from non exporters to exporters matter? Cases 3, 4: Steady-state, symmetric countries, interest rate limits 0. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

12 Analytic results: Special cases Indirect e ect of change in trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. To a 1st-order approximation, indirect e ect = in all special cases. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

13 Analytic results: Special cases Indirect e ect of change in trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. To a 1st-order approximation, indirect e ect = in all special cases. I No additional e ect on aggregate productivity over simpler model that abstracts from heterogeneous rms decisions. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

14 Analytic results: Special cases Indirect e ect of change in trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. To a 1st-order approximation, indirect e ect = in all special cases. I I No additional e ect on aggregate productivity over simpler model that abstracts from heterogeneous rms decisions. Increase in productivity of average rm from changes in exit and exp decisions, reallocation of process innovation from non-exp to exp. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

15 Analytic results: Special cases Indirect e ect of change in trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. To a 1st-order approximation, indirect e ect = in all special cases. I I No additional e ect on aggregate productivity over simpler model that abstracts from heterogeneous rms decisions. Increase in productivity of average rm from changes in exit and exp decisions, reallocation of process innovation from non-exp to exp. I O set by changes in product innovation. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

16 Analytic results: Special cases Indirect e ect of change in trade costs on aggregate productivity from changes in rms exit, export, process, and product innovation. To a 1st-order approximation, indirect e ect = in all special cases. I I No additional e ect on aggregate productivity over simpler model that abstracts from heterogeneous rms decisions. Increase in productivity of average rm from changes in exit and exp decisions, reallocation of process innovation from non-exp to exp. I O set by changes in product innovation. Firms free-entry condition places constraint on overall response of aggregate productivity to change in trade costs. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

17 Quantitative results Endogenous selection in production and exporting, elastic process innovation, positive interest rates, large changes in trade costs. Parameterization to match features of US export and rm dynamics. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

18 Quantitative results Endogenous selection in production and exporting, elastic process innovation, positive interest rates, large changes in trade costs. Parameterization to match features of US export and rm dynamics. If low real interest rate or rms investments in process innovation are inelastic: con rm analytical results. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

19 Quantitative results Endogenous selection in production and exporting, elastic process innovation, positive interest rates, large changes in trade costs. Parameterization to match features of US export and rm dynamics. If low real interest rate or rms investments in process innovation are inelastic: con rm analytical results. If positive real interest rates and elastic process innovation: changes in process and product innovation largely but not exactly o set. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

20 Quantitative results Endogenous selection in production and exporting, elastic process innovation, positive interest rates, large changes in trade costs. Parameterization to match features of US export and rm dynamics. If low real interest rate or rms investments in process innovation are inelastic: con rm analytical results. If positive real interest rates and elastic process innovation: changes in process and product innovation largely but not exactly o set. I E ect on aggregate productivity one order of magnitude smaller relative to response of productivity of the average rm. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

21 Quantitative results Endogenous selection in production and exporting, elastic process innovation, positive interest rates, large changes in trade costs. Parameterization to match features of US export and rm dynamics. If low real interest rate or rms investments in process innovation are inelastic: con rm analytical results. If positive real interest rates and elastic process innovation: changes in process and product innovation largely but not exactly o set. I I E ect on aggregate productivity one order of magnitude smaller relative to response of productivity of the average rm. Welfare gains from additional indirect e ects negligible because transition dynamics are slow. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

22 Related paper Arkolakis, Svetlana, Klenow, and Rodriguez-Clare (2008) I I I Melitz Pareto distributed productivities. abstract from process innovation. welfare gains of reduction in trade costs same with and without heterogeneous exporting decisions, given initial trade share and trade elasticity. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

23 Production of nal goods Preferences of representative hh: t=0 β t log(c t ) Production function of nal good: Z Z Y t = a t (z) 1 1/ρ dm t (z) + x t (z)b t (z) 1 ρ/(ρ 1) 1/ρ dmt (z) I M (z): measure of operating intermediate goods rms with productivity index z. Produced by competitive rms. Standard demands and nal good price P t. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

24 Production of intermediate goods Firms indexed by z. y t (z) = exp(z) 1/(ρ 1) l t (z). Fixed operating cost: n f units of research good. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

25 Production of intermediate goods Firms indexed by z. y t (z) = exp(z) 1/(ρ 1) l t (z). Fixed operating cost: n f units of research good. Per-period xed export cost: n x units of research good. Iceberg cost D > 1 in exported goods. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

26 Pro ts Firms are monopolistically competitive. Current static pro ts: Π t (z) = max y,l,p a,p a,a,a,x 2f0,1g p aa + xp a a W t l xn x a + xda = exp(z) 1/(ρ 1) l a = pa P t ρ p Y t and a = a P t ρ Y t. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

27 Pro ts Firms are monopolistically competitive. Current static pro ts: Π t (z) = max y,l,p a,p a,a,a,x 2f0,1g p aa + xp a a W t l xn x a + xda = exp(z) 1/(ρ 1) l a = Symmetric countries: pa P t ρ p Y t and a = a P t ρ Y t. Π t (z) = Π dt exp (z) + max Π dt D 1 ρ exp (z) n x, 0 Π d = (W /P)1 ρ PY ρ ρ (ρ 1) 1 ρ tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

28 Process innovation Firm with current productivity exp (z) 1/(ρ 1), productivity at t + 1: I exp(z + z ) 1/(ρ 1) with probability q I exp(z z ) 1/(ρ 1) with probability 1 q. Firm invests exp (z) c (q) units of research good, c q > 0, c qq > 0. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

29 Process innovation Firm s dynamic problem: V t (z) = max [0, V o t (z)] V o t (z) = max q2[0,1] Π t(z) exp (z) c (q) n f + (1 δ) 1 R t [qv t+1 (z + z ) + (1 q)v t+1 (z z )]. Implies exit cuto z t and q t (z). tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

30 Product innovation Free-entry: n e = 1 R t Z V t+1 (z)dg G (z): distribution of initial productivity draws. G (z) constant over time. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

31 Feasibility constraints Research good: Z M et n e + I Assume ρ + λ > 2. [n f + x t (s) n x + exp(z)c(q t (s))] dm t = L λ rty 1 λ rt tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

32 Feasibility constraints Research good: Z M et n e + I Assume ρ + λ > 2. [n f + x t (s) n x + exp(z)c(q t (s))] dm t = L λ rty 1 λ rt Labor: Z l t (z)dm t (z) + L rt = L Final good: C t + Y rt = Y t Evolution of M t (z) over time is implied by q t (z), δ, and z t. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

33 Aggregate productivity Aggregate output: Y = Z (L L r ) tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

34 Aggregate productivity Aggregate output: Y = Z (L L r ) Aggregate productivity symmetric steady-state: Z = M e Z d D 1 ρ 1/(ρ 1) Z x Z Z Z d = (1 x (z)) exp(z)d M (z), Z x = x (z) exp(z)d M (z) tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

35 Aggregate productivity Aggregate output: Y = Z (L L r ) Aggregate productivity symmetric steady-state: Z = M e Z d D 1 ρ 1/(ρ 1) Z x Z Z Z d = (1 x (z)) exp(z)d M (z), Z x = x (z) exp(z)d M (z) Change in aggregate productivity: log Z = s x log D+ {z } Direct e ect D s 1 ρ 1 + D x ρ 1 D 1 ρ log Z x ρ s x D 1 ρ log Z d + log M e. {z } Indirect e ect tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

36 Aggregate productivity Aggregate output: Y = Z (L L r ) Aggregate productivity symmetric steady-state: Z = M e Z d D 1 ρ 1/(ρ 1) Z x Z Z Z d = (1 x (z)) exp(z)d M (z), Z x = x (z) exp(z)d M (z) Change in aggregate productivity: log Z = s x log D+ {z } Direct e ect D s 1 ρ 1 + D x ρ 1 D 1 ρ log Z x ρ s x D 1 ρ log Z d + log M e. {z } Indirect e ect How big is the indirect e ect? Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

37 First, nd constant on variable pro ts Given Π d, exit, export, and process innovation decisions: V (z) = max [0, V o (z)] V o (z) = max q2[0,1] Π d exp (z) + max Π d D 1 ρ exp (z) n x, 0 exp (z) c (q) n f +(1 δ)β [qv (z + z ) + (1 q)v (z z )]. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

38 First, nd constant on variable pro ts Given Π d, exit, export, and process innovation decisions: V (z) = max [0, V o (z)] V o (z) = max q2[0,1] Π d exp (z) + max Π d D 1 ρ exp (z) n x, 0 exp (z) c (q) n f +(1 δ)β [qv (z + z ) + (1 q)v (z z )]. Solve Π d from free-entry condition: Z n e = β V (z)dg. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

39 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

40 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. Using: W P = ρ 1 ρ Z and Y = Z (L L r ). tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

41 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. Using: W P = ρ 1 ρ Z and Y = Z (L L r ). Π d = κ 0 Z 2 ρ λ (L L r ). log Π d = (2 ρ λ) (Direct E + Indirect E ) + log (L L r ) tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

42 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. Using: W P = ρ 1 ρ Z and Y = Z (L L r ). Π d = κ 0 Z 2 ρ λ (L L r ). log Π d = (2 ρ λ) (Direct E + Indirect E ) + log (L L r ) If all rms export or β! 1, log (L L r ) = 0 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

43 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. Using: W P = ρ 1 ρ Z and Y = Z (L L r ). Π d = κ 0 Z 2 ρ λ (L L r ). log Π d = (2 ρ λ) (Direct E + Indirect E ) + log (L L r ) If all rms export or β! 1, log (L L r ) = 0 Four special cases: log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

44 Then, calculate indirect e ect on aggregate productivity Constant on variable pro ts: Π d = κ (W /P) 1 ρ λ Y. Using: W P = ρ 1 ρ Z and Y = Z (L L r ). Π d = κ 0 Z 2 ρ λ (L L r ). log Π d = (2 ρ λ) (Direct E + Indirect E ) + log (L L r ) If all rms export or β! 1, log (L L r ) = 0 Four special cases: log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D. Implies indirect e ect and log Z equal in all cases. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

45 Positive interest rate, economic pro ts non-constant, Π d Z ΥM e > 1. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43 Aggregate allocation of labor CES aggregator: Payments to production employment xed ratio of variable pro ts. W (L L r ) = (ρ 1) Π d Z CD production of research good: where Z Υ = n e + WL r = λυm e [n f + x (z) n x + exp(z)c(q(z))] d M(z). Combine: L L r = ρ 1 Π d Z L r λ ΥM e Zero interest rate, no economic pro ts, Π d Z ΥM e = 1.

46 Benchmark: Only product innovation (Krugman 1979) All rms produce, export, no process innovation. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

47 Benchmark: Only product innovation (Krugman 1979) All rms produce, export, no process innovation. Values functions: V (z) = Π d 1 + D 1 ρ 1 β (1 δ) exp (z) Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

48 Benchmark: Only product innovation (Krugman 1979) All rms produce, export, no process innovation. Values functions: V (z) = Π d 1 + D 1 ρ 1 β (1 δ) exp (z) Free-entry condition requires Π d 1 + D 1 ρ constant. log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

49 Benchmark: Only product innovation (Krugman 1979) All rms produce, export, no process innovation. Values functions: V (z) = Π d 1 + D 1 ρ 1 β (1 δ) exp (z) Free-entry condition requires Π d 1 + D 1 ρ constant. log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D. Indirect e ect on aggregate productivity: Indirect e ects Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

50 Case I: Productivity dynamics, exit, all rms export Values functions: V o (z) = max q2[0,1] Π d 1 + D 1 ρ exp (z) exp (z) c (q) n f + (1 δ)β [qv (z + z ) + (1 q)v (z z )] tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

51 Case I: Productivity dynamics, exit, all rms export Values functions: V o (z) = max q2[0,1] Π d 1 + D 1 ρ exp (z) exp (z) c (q) n f + (1 δ)β [qv (z + z ) + (1 q)v (z z )] Free-entry condition requires Π d 1 + D 1 ρ xed, log Π d as before Exit, process innovation unchanged. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

52 Case I: Productivity dynamics, exit, all rms export Values functions: V o (z) = max q2[0,1] Π d 1 + D 1 ρ exp (z) exp (z) c (q) n f + (1 δ)β [qv (z + z ) + (1 q)v (z z )] Free-entry condition requires Π d 1 + D 1 ρ xed, log Π d as before Exit, process innovation unchanged. Indirect e ect (only from product innovation): Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

53 Case II: Subset of rms export, no productivity dynamics n x > 0, z = 0, no process innovation tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

54 Case II: Subset of rms export, no productivity dynamics n x > 0, z = 0, no process innovation V (z) = 1 1 β(1 δ) max 0, Π d e z n f + max 0, Π d e z D 1 ρ n x. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

55 Case II: Subset of rms export, no productivity dynamics n x > 0, z = 0, no process innovation V (z) = 1 1 β(1 δ) max 0, Π d e z n f + max 0, Π d e z D 1 ρ n x. Di erentiate free-entry to obtain log Π d. No rst-order e ects on V (z) from changes in z and z x (envelope) Gives log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

56 Case II: Subset of rms export, no productivity dynamics n x > 0, z = 0, no process innovation V (z) = 1 1 β(1 δ) max 0, Π d e z n f + max 0, Π d e z D 1 ρ n x. Di erentiate free-entry to obtain log Π d. No rst-order e ects on V (z) from changes in z and z x (envelope) Gives log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D If β! 1 or G (z) Pareto, L r = 0, and Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

57 Case II: Subset of rms export, no productivity dynamics n x > 0, z = 0, no process innovation V (z) = 1 1 β(1 δ) max 0, Π d e z n f + max 0, Π d e z D 1 ρ n x. Di erentiate free-entry to obtain log Π d. No rst-order e ects on V (z) from changes in z and z x (envelope) Gives log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D If β! 1 or G (z) Pareto, L r = 0, and Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 Product innovation o sets changes in exit and export decisions. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

58 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection z > 0, allow for process innovation Export status follows Markov process, n x 2 f0, g Only exogenous exit: n f = 0. V (z, n x ) = V i exp (z), and q (z, n x ) = q i. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

59 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection z > 0, allow for process innovation Export status follows Markov process, n x 2 f0, g Only exogenous exit: n f = 0. V (z, n x ) = V i exp (z), and q (z, n x ) = q i. In response to a decline in D, q exp increases relative to q non-exp. Magnitude depends on c 00 (q) /c 0 (q). tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

60 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection Di erentiate free-entry condition. Process innovation chosen optimally, no rst-order e ects from q D on V (z) tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

61 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection Di erentiate free-entry condition. Process innovation chosen optimally, no rst-order e ects from q D on V (z) With β! 1, log Π d as before, log L r = 0, and Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

62 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection Di erentiate free-entry condition. Process innovation chosen optimally, no rst-order e ects from q D on V (z) With β! 1, log Π d as before, log L r = 0, and Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 Decline in product innovation o sets reallocation of process innov. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

63 Case III: Productivity dynamics, exogenous selection Di erentiate free-entry condition. Process innovation chosen optimally, no rst-order e ects from q D on V (z) With β! 1, log Π d as before, log L r = 0, and Indirect e ect Direct e ect = 1 λ ρ + λ 2 Decline in product innovation o sets reallocation of process innov. c 00 /c 0 has no impact on log Z. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

64 Case III: Positive real interest rates Change in pro ts: log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D s x =share of exports in discounted present value of revenues for entering rm. Reallocation of labor from research to production, change in economic pro ts Π d Z /Υ. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

65 Case III: Positive real interest rates Change in pro ts: log Π d = (ρ 1) s x log D s x =share of exports in discounted present value of revenues for entering rm. Reallocation of labor from research to production, change in economic pro ts Π d Z /Υ. Exogenous selection, inelastic process innovation, λ = 1: Indirect e ect Direct e ect = sx L r 1 1 s x L Indirect e ect < 0 (decline in product innovation) if s x < s x. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

66 Case III: Transition dynamics Transition dynamics of aggregate productivity indices: Zxt Z x = (1 δ) Z dt Z t A t Zx0 Z x d Z d 0 Z d I If (1 δ) t A t dies out slowly, then transition dynamics are slow. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

67 Case III: Transition dynamics Transition dynamics of aggregate productivity indices: Zxt Z x = (1 δ) Z dt Z t A t Zx0 Z x d Z d 0 Z d I If (1 δ) t A t dies out slowly, then transition dynamics are slow. Productivity: I Entering rms: 1 + D 1 ρ 1 [g l g h ] 0. I Average rm: 1 + D 1 ρ 1 t=0 (1 δ)t A t [g l g h ] 0. I If (1 δ) t A t dies out slowly, then productivity of average rm is substantially larger than the average productivity of an entering rm. When process innovation plays big role in determining rms productivities, then transition dynamics slow. Atkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

68 Quantitative Analysis Simultaneously include: I I endogenous selection in rms exit and export decisions. endogenous process innovation. Vary real interest rate and elasticity of process innovation to changes in incentive to innovate. Consider larger changes in variable trade costs. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

69 Parameterization c 00 (q) /c 0 (q) = b. High b: inelastic process innovation. Low b: elastic process innovation. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

70 Parameterization New rms z = z 0 Calibrate (h, z, D 1 ρ, n x,and δ) to US data on : I I I I I Firm employment-based size distribution. Variance of growth of large rms. Death of large rms. Exports / Gross Output. Employment in exporting rms Adjust h to keep q of large rms constant as we lower b. Other parameters, do not a ect calibration targets: ρ = 5, n f, n e. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

71 Reduction (small) in marginal trade costs, r=0 Research good produced with labor only λ=1 Curvature of process innovation cost function, b Elasticity of aggregate variables across steady states negative of log change in variable / log change in D Aggregate productivity, Z Direct effect Productivity of the average firm Product Innovation Ratio indirect / direct effect, theroetical and numerical tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

72 Reduction (small) in marginal trade costs, r=0 Research good produced with labor + good λ=0.5 Curvature of process innovation cost function, b Elasticity of aggregate variables across steady states Aggregate productivity, Z Direct effect Productivity of the average firm Product Innovation Ratio indirect / direct effect, theoretical and numerical tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

73 Reduction in marginal trade costs, r=0.05, elastic q Curvature of process innovation cost function, b 3, Elasticity of aggregate variables across steady states λ=1 Aggregate Production Labor, L L r Aggregate productivity, Z Direct effect Productivity of the average firm Product Innovation Ratio indirect / direct effect, numerical Output tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

74 Reduction in marginal trade costs, r=0.05, welfare Curvature of process innovation cost function, b 3, Elasticity of aggregate variables across steady states Aggregate productivity, Z Direct effect Productivity of the average firm Product Innovation Output, Y Welfare Welfare in benchmark (all firms export, exog. exit) λ=1 tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

75 Transition dynamics In paper we show: larger steady-state change, slower transition. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

76 Transition dynamics Larger steady-state change, slower transition. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

77 Larger reduction in marginal trade costs Research good produced with labor only λ=1 Curvature of process innovation cost function, b 3, Export share, initial steady state Export share, new steady state Elasticity of aggregate variables across steady states Aggregate productivity, Z Direct effect + productivity of the average firm (*) Product Innovation Welfare Welfare in benchmark (all firms export, exog. exit) tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

78 Conclusions Build model of the endogenous change in aggregate productivity that arises in GE as rms exit, export, process- and product innovation decisions respond to change in trade costs. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

79 Conclusions Build model of the endogenous change in aggregate productivity that arises in GE as rms exit, export, process- and product innovation decisions respond to change in trade costs. Trade cost change can have substantial e ect on individual rms decisions, but largely not re ected in aggregate productivity and welfare. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

80 Conclusions Build model of the endogenous change in aggregate productivity that arises in GE as rms exit, export, process- and product innovation decisions respond to change in trade costs. Trade cost change can have substantial e ect on individual rms decisions, but largely not re ected in aggregate productivity and welfare. Micro evidence on elasticity of individual rms exit, export and process innovation to changes in international trade costs not informative about the macroeconomic implications of these responses for aggregate productivity and welfare. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43

81 Future work Non- constant elasticity of demand leading to variable markups and strategic interaction in rms a ecting process innovation decisions. Multi-product rms. Spillovers leading to endogenous growth. Innovation policies designed to stimulate innovation at the rm level. tkeson and Burstein ()Innovation, dynamics, international trade November 10, / 43