Thursday, October 27th,
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- Derrick Hood
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1 Wheat Price Volatility Thursday, October 27th,
2 Introduction 1. Market Intelligence 2. Trading.Conclusion Thursday, October 27th,
3 Volatility Thursday, October 27th,
4 Yes, volatility is Alive and Kicking HIGH PRICE FLUCTUATION 2010 LOW PRICE FLUCTUATION & Thursday, October 27th,
5 WEATHER Wheat crop (and price) are sensitive to weather pattern changes By temperature may grow by 1-4 Degrees (WMO*) => Global Warming, which may likely induce: important weather pattern changes if not Extreme weather event *World Meteorological Organisation Thursday, October 27th,
6 Problematic: How to manage price risk in full awareness? Thursday, October 27th,
7 STRICH POLICY? CHOICE 1. No! Thursday, October 27th,
8 CHOICE 2. Step 1 Collect Information MARKET Market INTELLIGENCE Intelligence Step 4 Trade & Manage position Market Approach Cycle Step 2 Analyse the information Market TRADING Trading Intelligence Step 3 Conclusion & Trading Strategy Thursday, October 27th,
9 Step 1 Collect Information MARKET INTELLIGENCE Physical Market Supply & Demand Exchange, Forex & News Freight Market Opinion Independent Broker (1) Supplier Network Official (2) Independent Supplier In-House Network News Agency Baltic Dry Index Matrix FOB + Freight = CIF price To compare origin at destinations Port Line up Network Network 1. Future & Physical Broker 2. USDA Abare (Australia) Conab (Brazil) etc Thursday, October 27th,
10 Step 2 Analyse the information 1. FUNDAMENTAL Analysis Supply (Existing price, Surface, Input, Climate driven) Demand (GDP growth, Consumption habits ) Objective: Anticipate upcoming S&D dynamic as Price is the equilibrium of both. 2. MATHEMATICS Ex: Wheat-Corn Spreads / Soya-Corn ratio / Production Cost etc Objective: Do they confirm Fundamentals or not 3. MACRO Indicators Currencies Credit crunch Geopolitics Objective: Do they enable 1 & 2 to develop? 4. TECHNICAL Analysis: Price action study - Independent of 1-2 & 3. Detect Trend reversal - Market Entry-Exit & Stop points Objective: When & Where to Take or Exit a position MARKET INTELLIGENCE Thursday, October 27th,
11 Step 3 Conclusion & Trading Strategy Step 4 Trade & Manage Position Trading is a function of : A. Company Risk Profile B. Trading Tool Used Physical Financial C. Know How and Experience involved Thursday, October 27th,
12 A. First question that a decision maker should ask him/herself... Thursday, October 27th,
13 What is the company profile vis-à-vis risk? Risk taker or Risk averse Be clear about this And define your Trading accordingly Thursday, October 27th,
14 Example 80 % 20 % Company Risk Profile 100% Risk Averse 100% Risk Taker HEDGING (Neutralise Risk) Company Trading Profile SPECULATIVE TRADING (Take Risk) Thursday, October 27th,
15 B. Main Trading Tools Physical Markets Exchange Markets CBOT, Matif, ASX OTC Structure Financial Institutions Wheat! Future & Option Structured Product Thursday, October 27th,
16 SPEC Trading Strategy Example Structured Product example Double Booster Market is at price Z & Y<Z<X max price X guaranteed. In case markets goes down, quantity is doubled at price Y. Customized solution Directional (Long Short) Wheat itself! Futures Options Volatility & Time Options Extremely powerful trading instrument in respect to the possibilities it offers Unlimited Possibilities Thursday, October 27th,
17 Hedging Strategy Example Local Market Purchase Buy Basis Buy Call Options If domestic market permits it, buy the wheat as long as you sale the Flour Price indexed on a future Flexibility to fix price independently of the physical purchase Similar to an insurance Max purchase price guaranteed Max loss = premium Unlimited Possibilities Thursday, October 27th,
18 C. How to access Know- How? 1. Broker and/or Supplier Cheap solution but not neutral 2. In-House trading team Autonomy but expensive. 3. External Trading Advisor (Terraxis Commodities SA) Cost efficient & Independent Thursday, October 27th,
19 Conclusion SHORT LONG Trading strategies are unlimited But the right one can be simple Thursday, October 27th,
20 1. However you deal with the unknown 2. Difficulty lies in establishing the right strategy according to: Market situation at the time Company risk profile Capital available Trading tools being used 3. Successful strategy is a function of Skills & Experience. Thursday, October 27th,
21 Should your market exposure justifies it: Invest in: In-house trading team or External advisor They will protect your interest It is a worth while investment. Thursday, October 27th,
22 First 4 Added Values are: Buy the right origin at the right time Wheat and currency market risk managed on a daily basis Remain confident in a chaotic market Insure stable and long term revenues Condition for successful collaboration is that you share a common objective: YOUR SUCCESS Thursday, October 27th,
23 Arabic English French website THANK YOU! 23
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