Empirical Study of Multi-Objective Optimization In The Multi-Currency Hull- White Two Factor Model
|
|
- Malcolm Miles
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Empirical Sudy of Muli-Objecive Opimizaion In The Muli-Currency Hull- Whie Two Facor Model Prepared by Yujiro Osuka Presened o he Acuaries Insiue ASTIN, AFIR/ERM and IACA Colloquia Augus 205 Sydney This paper has been prepared for he Acuaries Insiue 205 ASTIN, AFIR/ERM and IACA Colloquia. The Insiue s Council wishes i o be undersood ha opinions pu forward herein are no necessarily hose of he Insiue and he Council is no responsible for hose opinions. Yujiro Osuka The Insiue will ensure ha all reproducions of he paper acknowledge he auhor(s) and include he above copyrigh saemen. Insiue of Acuaries of Ausralia ABN Level 2, 50 Carringon Sree, Sydney NSW Ausralia (0) f +6 (0) e acuaries@acuaries.asn.au w
2 ASTIN, AFIR/ERM and IACA Colloquia Augus 205 Sydney Submied 4/205 An Empirical Sudy of Muli-objecive opimizaion in he Mulicurrency Hull-Whie wo Facor model Yujiro Osuka Milliman Inc. Urbanne Kojimachi Building 8F -6-2 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo, , Japan Absrac The paper concerns calibraion of muli-currency ineres rae models wih muli-objecive opimizaion echniques. Firs, he paper consrucs a muli-objecive opimizaion problem o calibrae ineres rae models in differen currencies o swapions in each currency. Then he paper invesigaes he flucuaion of prices of several ineres rae derivaives including foreign currency denominaed annuiies on he Pareo fronier in he parameer space of he Mulicurrency Hull-Whie wo Facor model. I is found ha his calibraion problem can be solved by a weighed sum mehod and ha i can produce he Pareo fronier by changing he weighs of each objecive funcion. The paper also demonsraes in an empirical way he flucuaion of he derivaive prices. I shows no specific rend wih changing model parameers on he Pareo fronier in objecive funcion space. Keywords: Muli-currency, Hull-Whie, Ineres rae, calibraion, muli objecive, opimizaion, Pareo fronier, Inroducion A se of muli-facor ineres rae models over muli-currencies involve a poenially wide range of correlaion coefficiens describing he mulidimensional Brownian moion. To assume ha he correlaed indices generaed by he model reflec he correlaion envisioned by a user, he mulidimensional Brownian moion mus be calibraed o a cerain correlaion coefficien marix subjec o specified consrains. Generally, in he muli-facor model over muli-currencies he dimension of he Brownian moion is a leas equal o he number of economies imes (number of facors +). I should be emphasized ha he correlaion coefficien for he Brownian moion and for observaion variables are no one-o-one. For example, he year rae or 0 year rae are described by a funcion of he facors in he mulifacor model, and he correlaion of he wo is a funcion of he correlaion coefficiens beween he facors and he ineres rae model parameers. Therefore, in order o consruc a realisic model in which observaion variables have an user defined correlaion marix, calibraion should be performed in a way ha consrain funcions deermine relaions among he correlaion marix of observaion variables, he correlaion marix of Brownian moions, and he ineres rae model parameers. If he arge correlaion marix of observaion variables covers iner-currency, he ineres rae model calibraion for each economy could no be accomplished independenly due o he consrains which conrol he relaions beween he model parameers for each objecive funcion o be opimized. This yields he muli-objecive opimizaion problem. However, here is no enough research on he behavior of derivaive prices derived from he calibraed model in he soluion se for his problem, or on he opimal condiion o erminae he opimizaion. I is worh invesigaing hese characerisics because one should selec only one soluion from he opimal soluion se which is called he Pareo fronier. If he pricing flucuaes so severely ha one canno deermine he price wih cerain level of confidence, i is difficul in pracice o implemen he model. Therefore, his paper describes a muli-objecive opimizaion problem o calibrae he muli-currency Hull-Whie wo facor model. The paper hen shows numerically he behavior of several ypes of derivaives in he Pareo fronier obained as he soluion se for his 205 Yujiro Osuka
3 YUJIRO OTSUKA problem. Finally he paper offers a discussion of opimal condiions o erminae he calibraion from he numerical resul. Noe ha many sudies for he muli-currency ineres rae model have been conduced by many auhors using various assumpions and frameworks. Such examples are Andreasen (995), Frey and Sommer (996), Flesaker and Hughson (996), Rogers (997), Mikkelsen (200), Schlögl (2002), Pelsser (2003), Amin (2003), and Brigo and Mercurio (2006). 2
4 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL 2 Index Correlaion in he Muli-currency Hull-Whie wo facor model This chaper aims a expressing a correlaion marix of observable indices in he mulicurrency Hull-Whie wo facor model as a funcion of model parameers including correlaion marix of mulidimensional Brownian moion. This correlaion marix funcion of observable indices will be needed in he nex chaper o consruc consrains on he calibraion parameers for implemenaion of a arge correlaion marix of observable indices. Since he ineres rae model used is a wo facor model, he same number of ineres rae indices per currency can be considered in he calibraion. -year zero rae and -year zero rae are seleced as observable ineres rae indices, and exchange raes beween differen currencies are also seleced as observable index. To simplify he problem, le us consider he case in wo currencies. 2. The Hull-Whie wo Facor Model and he Forward Rae Process The shor rae process in he Hull-Whie wo facor model follows he following sochasic differenial equaion (Hull and Whie, 994). dr() = [θ() + u() ar()]d + σ dw, r(0) = r 0, () where, sochasic mean revering level follows; du() = bu()d + σ 2 dw 2, u(0) = 0, (2) The forward rae a ime beween imes and is f(, T, T 2 ) = logp (, T ) logp (, T 2 ) T 2 T, (3) whose differenial form can be wrien as df(, T, T 2 ) = d + B(a,, T 2 ) B(a,, T ) T 2 T σ dw ) e z(t B(z,, T ) z + B(b,, T 2 ) B(b,, T ) B(a,, T 2 ) + B(a,, T ) σ (T 2 T )(a b) 2 dw 2 (4) (5) 3
5 YUJIRO OTSUKA 2.2 Correlaion Coefficien beween -year Rae and -year Rae in he Same Currency wih observaion inerval Consider R s -year zero rae a ime (= f(,, + R s )) and R L -year zero rae a ime (= f(,, + R L )), heir insananeous covariance can be wrien as df(,, + R S ) df(,, + R L ) B(a,, + R = S ) σ [ R dw + B(b,, + R S) B(a,, + R S ) σ S R S (a b) 2 dw 2 ] B(a,, + R L ) σ [ R dw + B(b,, + R L) B(a,, + R L ) σ L R L (a b) 2 dw 2 ] = B(a,, + R S)B(a,, + R L ) σ 2 R S R d L + {B(b,, + R S) B(a,, + R S )}{B(b,, + R L ) B(a,, + R L )} σ 2 R S R L (a b) 2 2 d σ + σ 2 ρ R S R L (a b) [ B(a,, + R S )B(b,, + R L ) + B(a,, + R L )B(b,, + R S ) 2B(a,, + R S )B(a,, + R L )]d (6) By inegraing he insananeous covariance above along, i seems one can obain covariance in observaion inerval δ. However, afer he observaion inerval δ, he o + δ par of f(,, + R s ) and f(,, + R L ) disappear a ime + δ and heir alernaive pars appear a he ip of each forward rae. To our inuiion, i is naural ha observaion objecive does no change essenially before and afer he inerval. In his paper, he covariance of R s -year zero rae and R L -year zero rae in observaion ime o + δ is defined as follows. +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R L) (s)df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) = [ + + = +δ {B(a,s,+δ+R S ) B(a,s,+δ)}{B(a,s,+δ+R L ) B(a,s,+δ)} 2 σ R S R L {B(b,s,+δ+R S ) B(b,s,+δ) B(a,s,+δ+R S )+B(a,s,+δ)} {B(b,s,+δ+R L ) B(b,s,+δ) B(a,s,+δ+R L )+B(a,s,+δ)} 2 σ R S R L (a b) 2 2 {B(a,s,+δ+R S ) B(a,s,+δ)} {B(b,s,+δ+R L ) B(b,s,+δ) B(a,s,+δ+R L )+B(a,s,+δ)} +{B(a,s,+δ+R L ) B(a,s,+δ)} {B(b,s,+δ+R S ) B(b,s,+δ) B(a,s,+δ+R S )+B(a,s,+δ)} R S R L (a b) 2a 3 R S R L ( σ 2 + σ 2 2 (a b) 2σ σ 2 ρ 2 (a b)) { e ars }{ e arl }{ e 2aδ } σ b 3 R S R L (a b) 2 { e brs }{ e brl }{ e 2bδ } 2 σ σ 2 ρ ] ds + (a b)σ σ 2 ρ σ 2 ab(a + b)r S R L (a b) 2 [{ e ars }{ e brl } + { e arl }{ e brs }] { e (a+b)δ } (7) 4
6 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL Thus correlaion coefficien beween R s -year rae and R L -year rae for inerval o + δ is given by +δ ρ SL = df(s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) +δ +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R L)(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) (8) 2.3 Correlaion Coefficien beween -year Rae and he differen currency s - year Rae Secion 2.2 derives a correlaion coefficien beween R s -year rae and R L -year rae in he same currency. This secion will provide one where R s -year rae and R L -year rae belonging o differen currencies. The below gives covariance beween domesic R s -year rae and foreign R L -year rae Cholesky Decomposiion Le us assume model parameers for he foreign currency by (a F, b F, σ F, σ 2 F, ρ F ), he differenial form of he forward rae a ime beween imes T and T 2 by df F (, T, T 2 ), he facor Brownian moion by (dw F, dw 2 F ), and he correlaion wih hose for domesic facors by dw dw F = γ, dw dw 2 F = γ 2, dw 2 dw F = γ 2, dw 2 dw 2 F = γ 22. Then he correlaion marix for hese are wrien as ρ γ γ 2 ρ γ 2 γ 22 γ γ 2 ρ F γ 2 γ 22 ρ F Assuming here is he Cholesky decomposiion for he above as c c 2 c 3 c 4 C = 0 c 22 c 23 c c 33 c c 44 Then one can wrie facor Brownian moion for wo currencies by using independen Brownian moion as dw dw dw 2 F dw F = C T dw 2 dw 3 dw 2 dw 4 (9) (0) () 5
7 YUJIRO OTSUKA Therefore, he covariance of domesic R s -year zero rae and foreignr L -year zero rae in observaion ime o + δ is +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s)df F (s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) +δ = [{ B(a,s,+δ+R S ) B(a,s,+δ) σ R c dw (s) S + B(b,s,+δ+R S ) B(b,s,+δ) B(a,s,+δ+R S )+B(a,s,+δ) σ R S (a b) 2(c 2 dw (s) + c 22 dw 2 (s))} B(a F,s,+δ+R L) B(a F,s,+δ) F { σ R L ( c 3 dw (s) + c 23 dw 2 (s) + c 33 dw 3 (s)) + B (b F,s,+δ+R L) B(b F,s,+δ) B(a F,s,+δ+R L)+B(a F,s,+δ) F σ R L (a F b F ) 2 ( c 4 dw (s) + c 24 dw 2 (s) + c 34 dw 3 (s) + c 44 dw 4 (s))}] = (a b) (a F b F )c c 3 σ σ F (a b)c c 4 σ σ 2 F (a F b F )(c 2 c 3 +c 22 c 23 )σ 2 σ F +(c2 c 4 +c 22 c 24 )σ 2 σ 2 F aa F R S R L (a b)(a F b F )(a+a F ) (2) { e ars }{ e af R L }{ e (a+af )δ } + (a b)c c 4 σ σ 2 F (c 2 c 4 + c 22 c 24 )σ 2 σ 2 F ab F R S R L (a b)(a F b F )(a + b F ) { e ars }{ e bf R L }{ e (a+bf )δ } + (af b F )(c 2 c 3 + c 22 c 23 )σ 2 σ F (c 2 c 4 + c 22 c 24 )σ 2 σ 2 F a F br S R L (a b)(a F b F )(a F + b) { e brs }{ e af R L }{ e (af +b)δ } F (c 2 c 4 + c 22 c 24 )σ 2 σ + 2 bb F R S R L (a b)(a F b F )(b + b F ) { e brs }{ e bf R L }{ e (b+bf )δ } Thus correlaion coefficien beween R s -year rae and R L -year rae for inerval δ is given by +δ ρ SFL = df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) df F (s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) +δ +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R S)(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) df F (s, + δ, + δ + R L ) (s)df F (s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) (3) 6
8 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL 2.4 Correlaion Coefficien beween -year Rae and Lognormal Process A muli-currency model needs a currency exchange rae model in i. In his paper a simple lognormal process is assumed as a currency exchange rae process. This secion will provide correlaion coefficien beween R s -year rae and logarihm of currency exchange rae S(). Lognormal process for currency exchange rae S() can be wrien as ds() = μs()d + σ FX S()dW FX (4) where expeced rae of reurn, volailiy, and dw FX he Winner process. The variance of log (S()) in is +δ d{log (S(s))}d{log(S(s))} = σ 2 FX δ (5) Assuming correlaion coefficiens wih ineres rae facors dw FX dw = ξ, and dw FX dw 2 = ξ 2, he covariance beween R s -year rae and logarihm of currency exchange rae S() in ime o + δ is +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R S ) d {log(s(s))} +δ B(a, s, + δ + R = S ) B(a, s, + δ) ξ [ R σ S + B(b, s, + δ + R S ) B(b, s, + δ) B(a, s, + δ + R S ) + B(a, s, + δ) ξ R S (a b) 2 σ = (a b)ξ σ σ FX ξ 2 σ 2 σ FX a 2 R S (a b) + ξ 2σ 2 σ FX b 2 R S (a b) { e brs }{ e bδ } { e ars }{ e aδ } Therefore, he correlaion coefficien beween R s -year rae and logarihm of currency exchange rae S() in ime o + δ is +δ ρ ES = df(s,, + δ + R S ) (s)d{log(s(s))} +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R S )(s) +δ d{log (S(s))}d{log(S(s))} Noe ha variance of R s -year rae is provided in secion 2.2. In he same way, he correlaion coefficien beween R L -year rae and logarihm of currency exchange rae S() in ime o + δ is +δ ρ EL = df(s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) d{log (S(s))} +δ df(s, + δ, + δ + R L)(s) df(s, + δ, + δ + R L )(s) +δ d{log (S(s))}d{log(S(s))} (7) (6) (8) 7
9 YUJIRO OTSUKA 3 Opimizaion Problem This chaper presens an opimizaion problem o implemen he muli-currency Hull-Whie wo facor model wih arge correlaion marix of observable indices. I is ofen he case ha an objecive funcion is defined as he sum of errors beween model prices and marke prices for some ineres rae derivaives. I is also ofen he case ha an opimizaion algorihm is run for each currency independenly. However, as seen in chaper 2, he correlaion marix of observable indices is a funcion of model parameers which are he members of calibraion parameers hemselves. This means he Hull-Whie parameers in currency 2 are uniquely calculaed from oher parameers wih given arge correlaions of observable indices. Since hose parameers for he Hull- Whie parameers in currency 2 are no necessarily opimal for he objecive funcion in currency 2, here is a radeoff relaionship beween he Hull-Whie parameers for currency and 2. This finally yields he muli-objecive opimizaion problem. 3. Overview of Consrains The figure shows overview of consrains for he opimizaion problem. Targe Model correlaion Brownian moion = ρ Targe ρ Ceq(a, b, σ, σ 2, ρ, a F, b F, σ F, σ 2 F, ρ F, γ, ξ) ρ Figure Overview of Consrains The lef marix represens he arge correlaion. The cener one represens he model correlaion derived from formulas described in chaper 2 whose variables are ineres rae model parameers and correlaion coefficiens among he Brownian moions. These wo marixes are conneced by an equaliy sign, which will be equaliy consrains in he calibraion. Noe ha values of arge correlaion are illusraive. 3.2 Deails of Equaliy Consrains on Correlaion Coefficiens 3.2. Consrains on Ineres Rae Correlaion in he Same Currency Denoe he Hull-Whie model parameers in he currency by A = (a, b, σ, σ 2, ρ), and hose in he currency 2 by A F = (a F, b F, σ F, σ 2 F, ρ F ). The correlaion beween R s -year zero rae and R L -year zero rae shown by formula (8) is a funcion of he Hull-Whie model parameers and observaion inerval δ. For convenience, le us denoe he correlaion beween R s -year zero rae and R L -year zero rae in he currency by ceq (A, δ), and ha in he currency 2 by ceq 2(A F, δ). Tha is ceq (A, δ) = ρ SL (Currency ) (9) ceq 2(A F, δ) = ρ SL (Currency 2) (20) Then consrains on ineres rae correlaion in he same currency can be se by Targe ceq (A, δ) = ρ 2 ceq 2(A F Targe, δ) = ρ 34 (2) (22) 8
10 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL Targe where ρ ij is he elemen of arge correlaion marix described in he figure Ineres Rae Correlaion Iner-currency In he same way, he correlaion beween R s -year zero rae and R L -year zero rae in he differen currency is shown by formula (3) is a funcion of he Hull-Whie model parameers in he wo currencies, correlaion coefficiens among he Brownian moions and observaion inerval δ. Assuming dw dw 2 F dw F ρ γ γ 2 (dw dw 2 dw F F dw 2 ) = γ 2 γ 22 ρ 2 d = Pd (23) dw 2, le us denoe he correlaion coefficiens for he combinaion of R s -year rae and R L -year rae in he currency, and R s -year rae and R L -year rae in he currency 2 by ceq 3(A, A F, P, S, S, δ) = ρ SFS (R s rae (curr )vs R s rae (curr 2)) (24) ceq 4(A, A F, P, S, L, δ) = ρ SFL (R s rae (curr )vs R L rae (curr 2)) (25) ceq 5(A, A F, P, L, S, δ) = ρ LFS (R L rae (curr )vs R s rae (curr 2)) (26) ceq 6(A, A F, P, L, L, δ) = ρ LFL (R L rae (curr )vs R L rae (curr 2)) (27) Then consrains on ineres rae correlaion iner-currency can be se by ceq 3(A, A F Targe, P, S, S, δ) = ρ 3 ceq 4(A, A F Targe, P, S, L, δ) = ρ 4 ceq 5(A, A F Targe, P, L, S, δ) = ρ 23 ceq 6(A, A F Targe, P, L, L, δ) = ρ 24 (28) (29) (30) (3) Correlaion beween Ineres Rae and Exchange Rae For correlaion beween ineres rae and exchange rae, he model correlaion is given by formula (7) and (8). Assuming correlaions among ineres rae in he wo currencies and exchange rae by dw dw 2 F dw F ξ dw FX = ξ 2 ξ 3 dw 2 ξ 4 d = ξd (32) and denoing ceq 7 (A, ξ, ξ 2, S, δ) = ρ ES (R s rae (curr )vs exchange rae) (33) ceq 8 (A, ξ, ξ 2, L, δ) = ρ EL (R s rae (curr )vs exchange rae) (34) ceq 9(A F, ξ 3, ξ 4, S, δ) = ρ EFS (R L rae (curr 2)vs exchange rae) (35) ceq 0(A F, ξ 3, ξ 4, L, δ) = ρ EFL (R L rae (curr 2)vs exchange rae) (36) Then consrains on he correlaion beween ineres rae and exchange rae can be se by 9
11 YUJIRO OTSUKA Targe ceq 7 (A, ξ, ξ 2, S, δ) = ρ 5 Targe ceq 8 (A, ξ, ξ 2, L, δ) = ρ 25 ceq 9(A F Targe, ξ 3, ξ 4, S, δ) = ρ 35 ceq 0(A F Targe, ξ 3, ξ 4, L, δ) = ρ 45 (37) (38) (39) (40) 3.3 Opimizaion Problem Here finally he opimizaion problem for he muli-currency Hull-Whie wo facor model wih arge correlaion marix of observable indices can be se as min A,A F K = f(a), KF = f(a F ) (4) lb A, A such ha F ub { P s.. ceq(a, A F, S, L, P, δ) ρ Targe = 0, Eigen(P) 0 (42) where lb and ub are appropriae lower and upper bounds respecively. The second row in consrain is ranslaed as follows; for a se of A, A F in a cerain rial in he opimizaion, here exis correlaion coefficiens among he 5 dimensional Brownian moion represened by posiive definie marix P which saisfies ha model correlaions for observable indices equal o arge correlaions as described in secion 3.2. For objecive funcions K and K F, appropriae error funcions shall be se such as sum of errors beween ineres rae derivaives of model price and marke price. 0
12 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL 4 Mehod of he Empirical Sudy Chaper 3 provided an opimizaion problem o esimae all model parameers in he mulicurrency Hull-Whie wo facor model. This chaper shows deailed mehods for he empirical sudy performed in he paper. 4. Calibraion Targe and Capial Marke Daa 4.. Swap Rae and Swapion EUR and GBP are seleced as model currencies in his sudy. Marke daa as of he December-end 203 is seleced for he case sudy. The swap rae and swapions in each currency are seleced as ineres rae base and a calibraion arge. The able below shows swapion quoes as of he valuaion dae. Table. EUR Swapion Quoes for Differen Tenor and Term Opion Term Swap Tenor % 37.88% 29.28% 23.7% 2.44% 22.80% % 27.89% 25.02% 22.80% 23.07% 23.33% % 25.0% 23.47% 22.47% 23.20% 23.02% % 23.59% 23.2% 2.57% 2.5% 20.29% % 24.0% 22.84% 2.72% 20.20% 8.43% Table 2. GBP Swapion Quoes for Differen Tenor and Term Opion Term Swap Tenor % 30.20% 23.90% 9.52% 7.76% 8.03% % 23.2% 9.73% 7.28% 6.52% 6.29% % 9.94% 7.96% 6.30% 5.44% 5.2% % 8.79% 7.34% 5.98% 4.88% 4.32% % 8.08% 6.75% 4.88% 4.2% 3.49% 4..2 Correlaion Targe for Observable Indices The observaion inerval wih which correlaion coefficien is calculaed is assumed monhly. year zero rae and 0 year zero rae are seleced as observable ineres rae indices. And he arge correlaion for he observable indices are se appropriaely by he following able. Table 3. Correlaion Targe for Observable Indices EUR Y EUR 0Y GBP Y GBP 0Y GBPEUR EUR Y 00% 60% 30% 40% 20% EUR 0Y 60% 00% 40% 75% 40% GBP Y 30% 40% 00% 40% 55% GBP 0Y 40% 75% 40% 00% 60% GBPEUR 20% 40% 55% 60% 00%
13 YUJIRO OTSUKA Objecive Funcion To perform muli-objecive opimizaion for objecive funcions Kand K F which represen sum of errors beween swapion prices in he model and marke, a weighed sum mehod is seleced. The weighed sum mehod convers a muli-objecive problem o a single-objecive problem by replacing weighed sum of objecive funcions. In general, i is proved ha he opimal soluion of he weighed sum mehod falls in he Pareo fronier if each objecive funcion is convex (Mieinen, 999). Though i is no proved Kand K F are convex, i is ineresing o invesigae wheher his mehod can be used in his specific problem. The global objecive funcion is hen se as where K K Global = pk + ( p)k F (43) = { Swapion imodel(currency ) (A) Swapioni Marke(Currency ) } 2 wi i (44) K F = { Swapion Model(Currency 2) Marke(Currency 2) 2 i F Swapioni } wi i (45) and p, w i, and w i F are appropriae weigh consan. In his sudy, swapion price is denominaed as swapion volailiy in black model, and w i, w i F are all se as 00%. 4.2 Tes Insrumens Using he calibraed muli-currency model, pricing of wo ypes of derivaive is performed. The aim is o invesigae flucuaion of he derivaive pricing in he Pareo fronier of model parameer Differenial Swap For one good example o sudy he muli-currency model, a differenial swap, also known as a quano swap, is seleced. A differenial swap is a ypical derivaive using muli-currency ineres rae model. Here a brief explanaion of a differenial swap is given. Company A pays o company B in a currency (EUR) an amoun expressed by he semiannual compounded LIBOR rae associaed wih currency 2 (GBP) a every paymen dae occurring every half year. On he same paymen daes, B pays o A he semiannual compounded LIBOR rae (+spread) associaed wih currency. From B side, he economic resul is equal o he combinaion of a bond issued in currency, invesmen on currency 2 currency, and exchange forward on every cash flow of he invesmens. The pricing es is performed on he following conrac; mauriy 0 years, noional in EUR, spread % Foreign Currency Denominaed Single Premium Deferred Annuiy Anoher ineresing example is foreign currency denominaed annuiy wih single premium. For some counries in a low ineres rae environmen, i is one soluion o earn high income o inves on foreign currency asses. And o avoid currency exchange risk, he annuiy paymen is denominaed in he foreign currency. The lapse rae is hough o be associaed wih ineres rae level of domesic currency and exchange rae because he policyholder is in currency. Mainenance expense is incurred in currency. As a resul, o evaluae ime value of financial opion and guaranee, muli-currency ineres rae model is needed. 2
14 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL The pricing es is performed on he following conrac; domesic currency is EUR, invesmen currency GBP, deferred period 0 years, single premium and deah benefi 0,000,000 GBP, MVA margin 0.45%, expense loading.65%, issue age 57, lapse rae 2.5% if surrender benefi afer MVA > single premium else.25%, surrender charge 7%, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, %, 0% for issue year, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8+ respecively, mainenance expense 30,000 per policy. 3
15 YUJIRO OTSUKA 5 Resul 5. Calibraion Resul By changing weigh value p in he global objecive funcion, he Pareo fronier has been obained as 3 ses of opimal soluions Calibraion Resul f f Figure 2 The Pareo Fronier as a Resul of Muli-objecive Opimizaion The horizonal axis shows values of K, and he verical axis shows K F. Each do is he opimal soluion for weighed sum of K and K F by changing he weigh value. 5.2 Differenial Swap Resul Differenial swap pricing for each opimal se of model parameers given in he prior secion is shown in he figure Differenial Swap RunNo Figure 3 Differenial Swap Pricing Resul for each Opimal Each plo corresponds 3 opimal soluions given in he prior secion. The number order coincides he numbering from lef side of figure 2. 4
16 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL 5.3 Foreign Currency Denominaed Single Premium Deferred Annuiy Time value of financial opion and guaranee (TVFOG) of foreign currency denominaed single premium deferred annuiy for each opimal se of model parameers given in he prior secion is shown in he figure TVFOG RunNo Figure 4 TVFOG of Foreign Denominaed Deferred Annuiy wih Single Premium Each plo corresponds 3 opimal soluion given in he prior secion. The number order coincides he numbering from lef side of figure 2. 5
17 YUJIRO OTSUKA 6 Discussions 6. Consrains Effec on he Calibraion The soluion for he muli-objecive opimizaion problem esablished for he muli-currency Hull-Whie wo facor model has been obained as he Pareo fronier shown in he figure 2. Since he opimizaion problem has 0 of equaliy consrains, i was one of he subjecs ha how sricly he domain space of each objecive funcion is consrained?. The feasible region is obviously consrained by 0 of equaliy consrains, hus i is naural ha each objecive funcion could no be less han ha of independen calibraion in each currency. However, i is sill imporan o see how deep he opimizaion funcion can be lower in he problem in pracice. As i is seen in figure 2 ha gaps of boh sides of 3 plos in which ever axis, are insignifican. In his sudy, he gap was 2.62E-06 and 2.276E-06 for currency and currency 2 respecively. I means objecive funcion for currency does no change significanly when weighing he oher side of objecive funcion (currency 2) and vice versa. Consider he number of effecive dimensions in he opimizaion problem, i is roughly esimaed 8 dimensions as he number of variables is 8 agains he 0 equaliy consrains. Though he number of consrains is 0, here migh be sill enough size of he feasible region o minimize he boh objecive funcions which resuls in he small gaps of each objecive funcions in he Prao fronier. Therefore, he following hypohesis is possible. I is imporan o see he number of effecive dimensions which is he dimensions of feasible region afer subracing he effec of consrains for considering sufficiency of he feasible region, and he consrains do no limi oo srongly he region if appropriae number of effecive dimensions remains. 6.2 Derivaive Flucuaion in he Pareo Fronier Anoher subjec on he sudy is wha range he derivaive price flucuaes according o he model parameer in he Pareo fronier. In he figure 3 and 4, each do corresponds hose in figure 2 (he Pareo fronier plos) in he order lef o righ. Changing he weigh value p in he global objecive funcion, i is seen ha wo ypes of derivaive prices change wih no specific characerisic. And he price gap wihin his range seems immaerial for boh pracically. Therefore, he following hypohesis is also possible. Given he small range of Pareo fronier, he model price flucuaion of ineres rae derivaives shows no specific paern, and he price gap is no significan. 6.3 Compuaional Error in Sochasic Inegral In pracical implemenaion, here is a problem of conradicion ha he inegral of insananeous covariance of wo sochasic processes is no equal o he covariance of discreizaion of he wo variables, as is well known in he heory of sochasic differenial equaions. Depending on which view is adoped, he calculaed resul of correlaion beween he wo indices is differen. Therefore, one has wo opions when implemening consrains on he correlaion marix among observable indices in he calibraion. This paper inroduced he consrains on he correlaions from he former view for simpliciy, bu i migh be more accurae using he covariance of discreizaion he wo variables when calculaing he covariance of hose insead of using he inegral of he insananeous covariance. 6
18 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION IN THE MULTI-CURRENCY HULL-WHITE TWO FACTOR MODEL References Hull, J., Whie, A. (994) Numerical Procedures for Implemening Term Srucure Models II: Two-Facor Models. The Journal of Derivaives 2, Brigo, D. Mercurio, F. (2006) Ineres Rae Models: Theory and Pracice. Second Ediion. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York. fp://fp.freesofware.com/pub/ex/can/macros/conrib/suppored/nabib, 997. Andreasen, J.F. (995) Pricing by Arbirage in an Inernaional Economy. Research in Inernaional Business and Finance 2, 936. Frey, R., and Sommer, D. (996) A Sysemaic Approach o Pricing and Hedging Inernaional Derivaives wih Ineres Rae Risk. Applied Mahemaical Finance 3(4), Flesaker, B., Hughson, L. (996) Posiive Ineres. Risk 9, Rogers, L.L.G. (997) The Poenial Approach o he Term Srucure of Ineres Raes and Foreign Exchange Raes. Mahemaical Finance 7, Mikkelsen, P. (200) Cross-Currency LIBOR Marke Models. CAF working paper 85. Schlögl, E. (2002) A Mulicurrency Exension of he Lognormal Ineres Rae Marke Models. Finance and Sochasics 6(2), Pelsser, A. (2003) Mahemaical Foundaion of Convexiy Correlaion. Quaniaive Finance 3(), Amin, A. (2003) Muli-Facor Cross Currency LIBOR Marke Models: Implemenaion, Calibraion and Examples. Available online a: hp:// Mieinen, K.M. (999) Nonlinear Muliobjecive Opimizaion, Kluwer academic, Dordrech. 7
Pricing FX Target Redemption Forward under. Regime Switching Model
In. J. Conemp. Mah. Sciences, Vol. 8, 2013, no. 20, 987-991 HIKARI Ld, www.m-hikari.com hp://dx.doi.org/10.12988/ijcms.2013.311123 Pricing FX Targe Redempion Forward under Regime Swiching Model Ho-Seok
More informationPricing formula for power quanto options with each type of payoffs at maturity
Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mahemaics. ISSN 0973-1768 Volume 13, Number 9 (017, pp. 6695 670 Research India Publicaions hp://www.ripublicaion.com/gjpam.hm Pricing formula for power uano opions wih
More informationMarket Models. Practitioner Course: Interest Rate Models. John Dodson. March 29, 2009
s Praciioner Course: Ineres Rae Models March 29, 2009 In order o value European-syle opions, we need o evaluae risk-neural expecaions of he form V (, T ) = E [D(, T ) H(T )] where T is he exercise dae,
More informationINSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES OF INDIA
INSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES OF INDIA EXAMINATIONS 05 h November 007 Subjec CT8 Financial Economics Time allowed: Three Hours (14.30 17.30 Hrs) Toal Marks: 100 INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATES 1) Do no wrie your
More informationINSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES OF INDIA
INSIUE OF ACUARIES OF INDIA EAMINAIONS 23 rd May 2011 Subjec S6 Finance and Invesmen B ime allowed: hree hours (9.45* 13.00 Hrs) oal Marks: 100 INSRUCIONS O HE CANDIDAES 1. Please read he insrucions on
More informationHull-White one factor model Version
Hull-Whie one facor model Version 1.0.17 1 Inroducion This plug-in implemens Hull and Whie one facor models. reference on his model see [?]. For a general 2 How o use he plug-in In he Fairma user inerface
More informationLIDSTONE IN THE CONTINUOUS CASE by. Ragnar Norberg
LIDSTONE IN THE CONTINUOUS CASE by Ragnar Norberg Absrac A generalized version of he classical Lidsone heorem, which deals wih he dependency of reserves on echnical basis and conrac erms, is proved in
More informationThe Mathematics Of Stock Option Valuation - Part Four Deriving The Black-Scholes Model Via Partial Differential Equations
The Mahemaics Of Sock Opion Valuaion - Par Four Deriving The Black-Scholes Model Via Parial Differenial Equaions Gary Schurman, MBE, CFA Ocober 1 In Par One we explained why valuing a call opion as a sand-alone
More informationVaR and Low Interest Rates
VaR and Low Ineres Raes Presened a he Sevenh Monreal Indusrial Problem Solving Workshop By Louis Doray (U de M) Frédéric Edoukou (U de M) Rim Labdi (HEC Monréal) Zichun Ye (UBC) 20 May 2016 P r e s e n
More information7 pages 1. Hull and White Generalized model. Ismail Laachir. March 1, Model Presentation 1
7 pages 1 Hull and Whie Generalized model Ismail Laachir March 1, 212 Conens 1 Model Presenaion 1 2 Calibraion of he model 3 2.1 Fiing he iniial yield curve................... 3 2.2 Fiing he caple implied
More informationModels of Default Risk
Models of Defaul Risk Models of Defaul Risk 1/29 Inroducion We consider wo general approaches o modelling defaul risk, a risk characerizing almos all xed-income securiies. The srucural approach was developed
More informationResearch Article A General Gaussian Interest Rate Model Consistent with the Current Term Structure
Inernaional Scholarly Research Nework ISRN Probabiliy and Saisics Volume 212, Aricle ID 67367, 16 pages doi:1.542/212/67367 Research Aricle A General Gaussian Ineres Rae Model Consisen wih he Curren Term
More informationValuing Real Options on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Projects
Valuing Real Opions on Oil & Gas Exploraion & Producion Projecs March 2, 2006 Hideaka (Hugh) Nakaoka Former CIO & CCO of Iochu Oil Exploraion Co., Ld. Universiy of Tsukuba 1 Overview 1. Inroducion 2. Wha
More informationSingle Premium of Equity-Linked with CRR and CIR Binomial Tree
The 7h SEAMS-UGM Conference 2015 Single Premium of Equiy-Linked wih CRR and CIR Binomial Tree Yunia Wulan Sari 1,a) and Gunardi 2,b) 1,2 Deparmen of Mahemaics, Faculy of Mahemaics and Naural Sciences,
More informationComputations in the Hull-White Model
Compuaions in he Hull-Whie Model Niels Rom-Poulsen Ocober 8, 5 Danske Bank Quaniaive Research and Copenhagen Business School, E-mail: nrp@danskebank.dk Specificaions In he Hull-Whie model, he Q dynamics
More informationUCLA Department of Economics Fall PhD. Qualifying Exam in Macroeconomic Theory
UCLA Deparmen of Economics Fall 2016 PhD. Qualifying Exam in Macroeconomic Theory Insrucions: This exam consiss of hree pars, and you are o complee each par. Answer each par in a separae bluebook. All
More informationMay 2007 Exam MFE Solutions 1. Answer = (B)
May 007 Exam MFE Soluions. Answer = (B) Le D = he quarerly dividend. Using formula (9.), pu-call pariy adjused for deerminisic dividends, we have 0.0 0.05 0.03 4.50 =.45 + 5.00 D e D e 50 e = 54.45 D (
More informationDual Valuation and Hedging of Bermudan Options
SIAM J. FINANCIAL MAH. Vol. 1, pp. 604 608 c 2010 Sociey for Indusrial and Applied Mahemaics Dual Valuaion and Hedging of Bermudan Opions L. C. G. Rogers Absrac. Some years ago, a differen characerizaion
More information(1 + Nominal Yield) = (1 + Real Yield) (1 + Expected Inflation Rate) (1 + Inflation Risk Premium)
5. Inflaion-linked bonds Inflaion is an economic erm ha describes he general rise in prices of goods and services. As prices rise, a uni of money can buy less goods and services. Hence, inflaion is an
More informationSupplement to Models for Quantifying Risk, 5 th Edition Cunningham, Herzog, and London
Supplemen o Models for Quanifying Risk, 5 h Ediion Cunningham, Herzog, and London We have received inpu ha our ex is no always clear abou he disincion beween a full gross premium and an expense augmened
More informationSTATIONERY REQUIREMENTS SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS 20 Page booklet List of statistical formulae New Cambridge Elementary Statistical Tables
ECONOMICS RIPOS Par I Friday 7 June 005 9 Paper Quaniaive Mehods in Economics his exam comprises four secions. Secions A and B are on Mahemaics; Secions C and D are on Saisics. You should do he appropriae
More informationProceedings of the 48th European Study Group Mathematics with Industry 1
Proceedings of he 48h European Sudy Group Mahemaics wih Indusry 1 ADR Opion Trading Jasper Anderluh and Hans van der Weide TU Delf, EWI (DIAM), Mekelweg 4, 2628 CD Delf jhmanderluh@ewiudelfnl, JAMvanderWeide@ewiudelfnl
More informationHEDGING SYSTEMATIC MORTALITY RISK WITH MORTALITY DERIVATIVES
HEDGING SYSTEMATIC MORTALITY RISK WITH MORTALITY DERIVATIVES Workshop on moraliy and longeviy, Hannover, April 20, 2012 Thomas Møller, Chief Analys, Acuarial Innovaion OUTLINE Inroducion Moraliy risk managemen
More informationMacroeconomics II A dynamic approach to short run economic fluctuations. The DAD/DAS model.
Macroeconomics II A dynamic approach o shor run economic flucuaions. The DAD/DAS model. Par 2. The demand side of he model he dynamic aggregae demand (DAD) Inflaion and dynamics in he shor run So far,
More informationAlexander L. Baranovski, Carsten von Lieres and André Wilch 18. May 2009/Eurobanking 2009
lexander L. Baranovski, Carsen von Lieres and ndré Wilch 8. May 2009/ Defaul inensiy model Pricing equaion for CDS conracs Defaul inensiy as soluion of a Volerra equaion of 2nd kind Comparison o common
More informationCHAPTER 3 How to Calculate Present Values. Answers to Practice Questions
CHAPTER 3 How o Calculae Presen Values Answers o Pracice Quesions. a. PV $00/.0 0 $90.53 b. PV $00/.3 0 $9.46 c. PV $00/.5 5 $ 3.5 d. PV $00/. + $00/. + $00/. 3 $40.8. a. DF + r 0.905 r 0.050 0.50% b.
More informationOrigins of currency swaps
Origins of currency swaps Currency swaps originally were developed by banks in he UK o help large cliens circumven UK exchange conrols in he 1970s. UK companies were required o pay an exchange equalizaion
More informationOption Valuation of Oil & Gas E&P Projects by Futures Term Structure Approach. Hidetaka (Hugh) Nakaoka
Opion Valuaion of Oil & Gas E&P Projecs by Fuures Term Srucure Approach March 9, 2007 Hideaka (Hugh) Nakaoka Former CIO & CCO of Iochu Oil Exploraion Co., Ld. Universiy of Tsukuba 1 Overview 1. Inroducion
More informationCh. 10 Measuring FX Exposure. Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? MNCs Take on FX Risk
Ch. 10 Measuring FX Exposure Topics Exchange Rae Risk: Relevan? Types of Exposure Transacion Exposure Economic Exposure Translaion Exposure Is Exchange Rae Risk Relevan?? Purchasing Power Pariy: Exchange
More informationOptimal Early Exercise of Vulnerable American Options
Opimal Early Exercise of Vulnerable American Opions March 15, 2008 This paper is preliminary and incomplee. Opimal Early Exercise of Vulnerable American Opions Absrac We analyze he effec of credi risk
More informationINTEREST RATES AND FX MODELS
INTEREST RATES AND FX MODELS 5. Shor Rae Models Andrew Lesniewski Couran Insiue of Mahemaics New York Universiy New York March 3, 211 2 Ineres Raes & FX Models Conens 1 Term srucure modeling 2 2 Vasicek
More informationOPTIMUM FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY USING THE MONETARY OVERLAPPING GENERATION MODELS
Kuwai Chaper of Arabian Journal of Business and Managemen Review Vol. 3, No.6; Feb. 2014 OPTIMUM FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY USING THE MONETARY OVERLAPPING GENERATION MODELS Ayoub Faramarzi 1, Dr.Rahim
More informationSan Francisco State University ECON 560 Summer 2018 Problem set 3 Due Monday, July 23
San Francisco Sae Universiy Michael Bar ECON 56 Summer 28 Problem se 3 Due Monday, July 23 Name Assignmen Rules. Homework assignmens mus be yped. For insrucions on how o ype equaions and mah objecs please
More informationFinancial Econometrics Jeffrey R. Russell Midterm Winter 2011
Name Financial Economerics Jeffrey R. Russell Miderm Winer 2011 You have 2 hours o complee he exam. Use can use a calculaor. Try o fi all your work in he space provided. If you find you need more space
More informationAvailable online at ScienceDirect
Available online a www.sciencedirec.com ScienceDirec Procedia Economics and Finance 8 ( 04 658 663 s Inernaional Conference 'Economic Scienific Research - Theoreical, Empirical and Pracical Approaches',
More informationA Note on Missing Data Effects on the Hausman (1978) Simultaneity Test:
A Noe on Missing Daa Effecs on he Hausman (978) Simulaneiy Tes: Some Mone Carlo Resuls. Dikaios Tserkezos and Konsaninos P. Tsagarakis Deparmen of Economics, Universiy of Cree, Universiy Campus, 7400,
More informationA pricing model for the Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Option
A pricing model for he Guaraneed Lifelong Wihdrawal Benefi Opion Gabriella Piscopo Universià degli sudi di Napoli Federico II Diparimeno di Maemaica e Saisica Index Main References Survey of he Variable
More informationApplications of Interest Rate Models
WDS'07 Proceedings of Conribued Papers, Par I, 198 204, 2007. ISBN 978-80-7378-023-4 MATFYZPRESS Applicaions of Ineres Rae Models P. Myška Charles Universiy, Faculy of Mahemaics and Physics, Prague, Czech
More informationCURRENCY CHOICES IN VALUATION AND THE INTEREST PARITY AND PURCHASING POWER PARITY THEORIES DR. GUILLERMO L. DUMRAUF
CURRENCY CHOICES IN VALUATION AN THE INTEREST PARITY AN PURCHASING POWER PARITY THEORIES R. GUILLERMO L. UMRAUF TO VALUE THE INVESTMENT IN THE OMESTIC OR FOREIGN CURRENCY? Valuing an invesmen or an acquisiion
More informationCHAPTER CHAPTER18. Openness in Goods. and Financial Markets. Openness in Goods, and Financial Markets. Openness in Goods,
Openness in Goods and Financial Markes CHAPTER CHAPTER18 Openness in Goods, and Openness has hree disinc dimensions: 1. Openness in goods markes. Free rade resricions include ariffs and quoas. 2. Openness
More informationPricing Vulnerable American Options. April 16, Peter Klein. and. Jun (James) Yang. Simon Fraser University. Burnaby, B.C. V5A 1S6.
Pricing ulnerable American Opions April 16, 2007 Peer Klein and Jun (James) Yang imon Fraser Universiy Burnaby, B.C. 5A 16 pklein@sfu.ca (604) 268-7922 Pricing ulnerable American Opions Absrac We exend
More informationAn Indian Journal FULL PAPER. Trade Science Inc. The principal accumulation value of simple and compound interest ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
[Type ex] [Type ex] [Type ex] ISSN : 0974-7435 Volume 0 Issue 8 BioTechnology 04 An Indian Journal FULL PAPER BTAIJ, 08), 04 [0056-006] The principal accumulaion value of simple and compound ineres Xudong
More informationAn Analytical Implementation of the Hull and White Model
Dwigh Gran * and Gauam Vora ** Revised: February 8, & November, Do no quoe. Commens welcome. * Douglas M. Brown Professor of Finance, Anderson School of Managemen, Universiy of New Mexico, Albuquerque,
More informationIJRSS Volume 2, Issue 2 ISSN:
A LOGITIC BROWNIAN MOTION WITH A PRICE OF DIVIDEND YIELDING AET D. B. ODUOR ilas N. Onyango _ Absrac: In his paper, we have used he idea of Onyango (2003) he used o develop a logisic equaion used in naural
More informationOnline Appendix to: Implementing Supply Routing Optimization in a Make-To-Order Manufacturing Network
Online Appendix o: Implemening Supply Rouing Opimizaion in a Make-To-Order Manufacuring Nework A.1. Forecas Accuracy Sudy. July 29, 2008 Assuming a single locaion and par for now, his sudy can be described
More informationPARAMETER ESTIMATION IN A BLACK SCHOLES
PARAMETER ESTIMATIO I A BLACK SCHOLES Musafa BAYRAM *, Gulsen ORUCOVA BUYUKOZ, Tugcem PARTAL * Gelisim Universiy Deparmen of Compuer Engineering, 3435 Isanbul, Turkey Yildiz Technical Universiy Deparmen
More informationSupplement to Chapter 3
Supplemen o Chaper 3 I. Measuring Real GD and Inflaion If here were only one good in he world, anchovies, hen daa and prices would deermine real oupu and inflaion perfecly: GD Q ; GD Q. + + + Then, he
More informationEquivalent Martingale Measure in Asian Geometric Average Option Pricing
Journal of Mahemaical Finance, 4, 4, 34-38 ublished Online Augus 4 in SciRes hp://wwwscirporg/journal/jmf hp://dxdoiorg/436/jmf4447 Equivalen Maringale Measure in Asian Geomeric Average Opion ricing Yonggang
More informationAdvanced Tools for Risk Management and Asset Pricing
MSc. Finance/CLEFIN 214/215 Ediion Advanced Tools for Risk Managemen and Asse Pricing May 215 Exam for Non-Aending Sudens Soluions Time Allowed: 13 minues Family Name (Surname) Firs Name Suden Number (Mar.)
More informationSystemic Risk Illustrated
Sysemic Risk Illusraed Jean-Pierre Fouque Li-Hsien Sun March 2, 22 Absrac We sudy he behavior of diffusions coupled hrough heir drifs in a way ha each componen mean-revers o he mean of he ensemble. In
More informationSynthetic CDO s and Basket Default Swaps in a Fixed Income Credit Portfolio
Synheic CDO s and Baske Defaul Swaps in a Fixed Income Credi Porfolio Louis Sco June 2005 Credi Derivaive Producs CDO Noes Cash & Synheic CDO s, various ranches Invesmen Grade Corporae names, High Yield
More informationResearch Paper Series. No. 64. Yield Spread Options under the DLG Model. July, 2009
Research Paper Series No. 64 Yield Spread Opions under he LG Model Masaaki Kijima, Keiichi Tanaka and Tony Wong July, 2009 Graduae School of Social Sciences, Tokyo Meropolian Universiy Graduae School of
More informationAn Introduction to PAM Based Project Appraisal
Slide 1 An Inroducion o PAM Based Projec Appraisal Sco Pearson Sanford Universiy Sco Pearson is Professor of Agriculural Economics a he Food Research Insiue, Sanford Universiy. He has paricipaed in projecs
More informationErratic Price, Smooth Dividend. Variance Bounds. Present Value. Ex Post Rational Price. Standard and Poor s Composite Stock-Price Index
Erraic Price, Smooh Dividend Shiller [1] argues ha he sock marke is inefficien: sock prices flucuae oo much. According o economic heory, he sock price should equal he presen value of expeced dividends.
More informationAcceleration Techniques for Life Cash Flow Projection Based on Many Interest Rates Scenarios Cash Flow Proxy Functions
Acceleraion Techniques for Life Cash Flow Projecion Based on Many Ineres Raes Scenarios Cash Flow Proxy Funcions Auhor: Marin Janeček, Tools4F, s.r.o. and Economic Universiy in Prague, 207 Acknowledgmen:
More informationValuation and Hedging of Correlation Swaps. Mats Draijer
Valuaion and Hedging of Correlaion Swaps Mas Draijer 4298829 Sepember 27, 2017 Absrac The aim of his hesis is o provide a formula for he value of a correlaion swap. To ge o his formula, a model from an
More information1 Purpose of the paper
Moneary Economics 2 F.C. Bagliano - Sepember 2017 Noes on: F.X. Diebold and C. Li, Forecasing he erm srucure of governmen bond yields, Journal of Economerics, 2006 1 Purpose of he paper The paper presens
More informationQuanto Options. Uwe Wystup. MathFinance AG Waldems, Germany 19 September 2008
Quano Opions Uwe Wysup MahFinance AG Waldems, Germany www.mahfinance.com 19 Sepember 2008 Conens 1 Quano Opions 2 1.1 FX Quano Drif Adjusmen.......................... 2 1.1.1 Exensions o oher Models.......................
More informationVolatility and Hedging Errors
Volailiy and Hedging Errors Jim Gaheral Sepember, 5 1999 Background Derivaive porfolio bookrunners ofen complain ha hedging a marke-implied volailiies is sub-opimal relaive o hedging a heir bes guess of
More informationIntroduction to Black-Scholes Model
4 azuhisa Masuda All righs reserved. Inroducion o Black-choles Model Absrac azuhisa Masuda Deparmen of Economics he Graduae Cener, he Ciy Universiy of New York, 365 Fifh Avenue, New York, NY 6-439 Email:
More informationYou should turn in (at least) FOUR bluebooks, one (or more, if needed) bluebook(s) for each question.
UCLA Deparmen of Economics Spring 05 PhD. Qualifying Exam in Macroeconomic Theory Insrucions: This exam consiss of hree pars, and each par is worh 0 poins. Pars and have one quesion each, and Par 3 has
More informationPrinciples of Finance CONTENTS
Principles of Finance CONENS Value of Bonds and Equiy... 3 Feaures of bonds... 3 Characerisics... 3 Socks and he sock marke... 4 Definiions:... 4 Valuing equiies... 4 Ne reurn... 4 idend discoun model...
More informationInternational transmission of shocks:
Inernaional ransmission of shocks: A ime-varying FAVAR approach o he Open Economy Philip Liu Haroon Mumaz Moneary Analysis Cener for Cenral Banking Sudies Bank of England Bank of England CEF 9 (Sydney)
More informationEmpirical analysis on China money multiplier
Aug. 2009, Volume 8, No.8 (Serial No.74) Chinese Business Review, ISSN 1537-1506, USA Empirical analysis on China money muliplier SHANG Hua-juan (Financial School, Shanghai Universiy of Finance and Economics,
More informationA Study of Process Capability Analysis on Second-order Autoregressive Processes
A Sudy of Process apabiliy Analysis on Second-order Auoregressive Processes Dja Shin Wang, Business Adminisraion, TransWorld Universiy, Taiwan. E-mail: shin@wu.edu.w Szu hi Ho, Indusrial Engineering and
More informationImproving the Jarrow-Yildirim Inflation Model
Improving he Jarrow-Yildirim Inflaion Model Rober Hardy May 19, 2013 1 Inroducion The mos liquid inflaion markes are hose of he US, UK, France and Eurozone. Each is suppored by a regular supply of governmen-issued
More informationMatematisk statistik Tentamen: kl FMS170/MASM19 Prissättning av Derivattillgångar, 9 hp Lunds tekniska högskola. Solution.
Maemaisk saisik Tenamen: 8 5 8 kl 8 13 Maemaikcenrum FMS17/MASM19 Prissäning av Derivaillgångar, 9 hp Lunds ekniska högskola Soluion. 1. In he firs soluion we look a he dynamics of X using Iôs formula.
More informationA Method for Estimating the Change in Terminal Value Required to Increase IRR
A Mehod for Esimaing he Change in Terminal Value Required o Increase IRR Ausin M. Long, III, MPA, CPA, JD * Alignmen Capial Group 11940 Jollyville Road Suie 330-N Ausin, TX 78759 512-506-8299 (Phone) 512-996-0970
More informationR e. Y R, X R, u e, and. Use the attached excel spreadsheets to
HW # Saisical Financial Modeling ( P Theodossiou) 1 The following are annual reurns for US finance socks (F) and he S&P500 socks index (M) Year Reurn Finance Socks Reurn S&P500 Year Reurn Finance Socks
More informationa. If Y is 1,000, M is 100, and the growth rate of nominal money is 1 percent, what must i and P be?
Problem Se 4 ECN 101 Inermediae Macroeconomics SOLUTIONS Numerical Quesions 1. Assume ha he demand for real money balance (M/P) is M/P = 0.6-100i, where is naional income and i is he nominal ineres rae.
More informationPortfolio Risk of Chinese Stock Market Measured by VaR Method
Vol.53 (ICM 014), pp.6166 hp://dx.doi.org/10.1457/asl.014.53.54 Porfolio Risk of Chinese Sock Marke Measured by VaR Mehod Wu Yudong School of Basic Science,Harbin Universiy of Commerce,Harbin Email:wuyudong@aliyun.com
More informationt=1 C t e δt, and the tc t v t i t=1 C t (1 + i) t = n tc t (1 + i) t C t (1 + i) t = C t vi
Exam 4 is Th. April 24. You are allowed 13 shees of noes and a calculaor. ch. 7: 137) Unless old oherwise, duraion refers o Macaulay duraion. The duraion of a single cashflow is he ime remaining unil mauriy,
More informationInventory Investment. Investment Decision and Expected Profit. Lecture 5
Invenory Invesmen. Invesmen Decision and Expeced Profi Lecure 5 Invenory Accumulaion 1. Invenory socks 1) Changes in invenory holdings represen an imporan and highly volaile ype of invesmen spending. 2)
More informationInterest rate models enhanced with local volatility
1/13 Inroducion Maching a rolling mauriy swapion An example: Cheyee s model wih LV Exensions o muli-d Cheyee and Libor Ineres rae models enhanced wih local volailiy Lingling Cao Join work wih Pierre Henry-Labordère
More informationPortfolio investments accounted for the largest outflow of SEK 77.5 billion in the financial account, which gave a net outflow of SEK billion.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DATE: 27-11-27 PUBLISHER: Saisics Sweden Balance of Paymens and Financial Markes (BFM) Maria Falk +46 8 6 94 72, maria.falk@scb.se Camilla Bergeling +46 8 6 942 6, camilla.bergeling@scb.se
More informationIncorporating Risk Preferences into Real Options Models. Murat Isik
Incorporaing Risk Preferences ino Real Opions Models Mura Isik Assisan Professor Agriculural Economics and Rural Sociology Universiy of Idaho 8B Ag Science Building Moscow, ID 83844 Phone: 08-885-714 E-mail:
More informationForeign Exchange, ADR s and Quanto-Securities
IEOR E4707: Financial Engineering: Coninuous-Time Models Fall 2013 c 2013 by Marin Haugh Foreign Exchange, ADR s and Quano-Securiies These noes consider foreign exchange markes and he pricing of derivaive
More informationNumerical probabalistic methods for high-dimensional problems in finance
Numerical probabalisic mehods for high-dimensional problems in finance The American Insiue of Mahemaics This is a hard copy version of a web page available hrough hp://www.aimah.org Inpu on his maerial
More informationOn multicurve models for the term structure.
On mulicurve models for he erm srucure. Wolfgang Runggaldier Diparimeno di Maemaica, Universià di Padova WQMIF, Zagreb 2014 Inroducion and preliminary remarks Preliminary remarks In he wake of he big crisis
More informationThe Relationship between Money Demand and Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation in Sri Lanka
The Relaionship beween Money Demand and Ineres Raes: An Empirical Invesigaion in Sri Lanka R. C. P. Padmasiri 1 and O. G. Dayarana Banda 2 1 Economic Research Uni, Deparmen of Expor Agriculure 2 Deparmen
More informationConstructing Out-of-the-Money Longevity Hedges Using Parametric Mortality Indexes. Johnny Li
1 / 43 Consrucing Ou-of-he-Money Longeviy Hedges Using Parameric Moraliy Indexes Johnny Li Join-work wih Jackie Li, Udiha Balasooriya, and Kenneh Zhou Deparmen of Economics, The Universiy of Melbourne
More informationLi Gan Guan Gong Michael Hurd. April, 2006
Ne Inergeneraional Transfers from an Increase in Social Securiy Benefis Li Gan Guan Gong Michael Hurd April, 2006 ABSTRACT When he age of deah is uncerain, individuals will leave bequess even if hey have
More informationAgenda. What is an ESG? GIRO Convention September 2008 Hilton Sorrento Palace
GIRO Convenion 23-26 Sepember 2008 Hilon Sorreno Palace A Pracical Sudy of Economic Scenario Generaors For General Insurers Gareh Haslip Benfield Group Agenda Inroducion o economic scenario generaors Building
More informationA UNIFIED PDE MODELLING FOR CVA AND FVA
AWALEE A UNIFIED PDE MODELLING FOR CVA AND FVA By Dongli W JUNE 2016 EDITION AWALEE PRESENTATION Chaper 0 INTRODUCTION The recen finance crisis has released he counerpary risk in he valorizaion of he derivaives
More informationThe macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Greece
The macroeconomic effecs of fiscal policy in Greece Dimiris Papageorgiou Economic Research Deparmen, Bank of Greece Naional and Kapodisrian Universiy of Ahens May 22, 23 Email: dpapag@aueb.gr, and DPapageorgiou@bankofgreece.gr.
More informationThis specification describes the models that are used to forecast
PCE and CPI Inflaion Differenials: Convering Inflaion Forecass Model Specificaion By Craig S. Hakkio This specificaion describes he models ha are used o forecas he inflaion differenial. The 14 forecass
More informationASSIGNMENT BOOKLET. M.Sc. (Mathematics with Applications in Computer Science) Mathematical Modelling (January 2014 November 2014)
ASSIGNMENT BOOKLET MMT-009 M.Sc. (Mahemaics wih Applicaions in Compuer Science) Mahemaical Modelling (January 014 November 014) School of Sciences Indira Gandhi Naional Open Universiy Maidan Garhi New
More informationEffect of Probabilistic Backorder on an Inventory System with Selling Price Demand Under Volume Flexible Strategy
Inernaional Transacions in Mahemaical Sciences and compuers July-December 0, Volume 5, No., pp. 97-04 ISSN-(Prining) 0974-5068, (Online) 0975-75 AACS. (www.aacsjournals.com) All righ reserved. Effec of
More informationOn the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Conditional Stock Market Volatility: A Re-Assessment
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive On he Impac of Inflaion and Exchange Rae on Condiional Sock Marke Volailiy: A Re-Assessmen OlaOluwa S Yaya and Olanrewaju I Shiu Deparmen of Saisics, Universiy of Ibadan,
More informationInterest Rate Products
Chaper 9 Ineres Rae Producs Copyrigh c 2008 20 Hyeong In Choi, All righs reserved. 9. Change of Numeraire and he Invariance of Risk Neural Valuaion The financial heory we have developed so far depends
More informationCoupling Smiles. November 18, 2006
Coupling Smiles Valdo Durrleman Deparmen of Mahemaics Sanford Universiy Sanford, CA 94305, USA Nicole El Karoui Cenre de Mahémaiques Appliquées Ecole Polyechnique 91128 Palaiseau, France November 18, 2006
More informationTentamen i 5B1575 Finansiella Derivat. Måndag 27 augusti 2007 kl Answers and suggestions for solutions.
Tenamen i 5B1575 Finansiella Deriva. Måndag 27 augusi 2007 kl. 14.00 19.00. Answers and suggesions for soluions. 1. (a) For he maringale probabiliies we have q 1 + r d u d 0.5 Using hem we obain he following
More informationForecasting with Judgment
Forecasing wih Judgmen Simone Manganelli DG-Research European Cenral Bank Frankfur am Main, German) Disclaimer: he views expressed in his paper are our own and do no necessaril reflec he views of he ECB
More informationFinancial Markets And Empirical Regularities An Introduction to Financial Econometrics
Financial Markes And Empirical Regulariies An Inroducion o Financial Economerics SAMSI Workshop 11/18/05 Mike Aguilar UNC a Chapel Hill www.unc.edu/~maguilar 1 Ouline I. Hisorical Perspecive on Asse Prices
More informationPolicyholder Exercise Behavior for Variable Annuities including Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits 1
Policyholder Exercise Behavior for Variable Annuiies including Guaraneed Minimum Wihdrawal Benefis 1 2 Deparmen of Risk Managemen and Insurance, Georgia Sae Universiy 35 Broad Sree, 11h Floor; Alana, GA
More informationQuestion 1 / 15 Question 2 / 15 Question 3 / 28 Question 4 / 42
Deparmen of Applied Economics Johns Hopkins Universiy Economics 602 Macroeconomic Theory and olicy Final Exam rofessor Sanjay Chugh Fall 2008 December 8, 2008 NAME: The Exam has a oal of four (4) quesions
More informationwhere r() = r(s)e a( s) + α() α(s)e a( s) + σ e a( u) dw(u) s α() = f M (0, ) + σ a (1 e a ) Therefore, r() condiional on F s is normally disribued wi
Hull-Whie Model Conens Hull-Whie Model Hull-Whie Tree Example: Hull-Whie Tree Calibraion Appendix: Ineres Rae Derivaive PDE Hull-Whie Model This secion is adaped from Brigo and Mercurio (006). As an exension
More informationUnemployment and Phillips curve
Unemploymen and Phillips curve 2 of The Naural Rae of Unemploymen and he Phillips Curve Figure 1 Inflaion versus Unemploymen in he Unied Saes, 1900 o 1960 During he period 1900 o 1960 in he Unied Saes,
More informationDYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS Vol. 7 Nicolaus Copernicus University Toruń Krzysztof Jajuga Wrocław University of Economics
DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS Vol. 7 Nicolaus Copernicus Universiy Toruń 2006 Krzyszof Jajuga Wrocław Universiy of Economics Ineres Rae Modeling and Tools of Financial Economerics 1. Financial Economerics
More informationMA Advanced Macro, 2016 (Karl Whelan) 1
MA Advanced Macro, 2016 (Karl Whelan) 1 The Calvo Model of Price Rigidiy The form of price rigidiy faced by he Calvo firm is as follows. Each period, only a random fracion (1 ) of firms are able o rese
More information