1 D / E < 3 2 0,5 D / E < 1 0,06 D / E < 0,5 0 D / E < 0,06
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1 ,.,»;.,..,,, ,,,. : -., 5,. (,, (, ), ) (. 1). 1 (D/E, ) 1 1 D / E < 3 2 0,5 D / E < 1 0,06 D / E < 0,5 0 D / E < 0, ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ,244 0,719 0,472 0,548 0,841 0,269 1,022 0,539 0,691 1,002 0, , ,428 6,891 2,479 3,014 4,732 1 : ( ). 2 D ; E. 333
2 , :, ;,,. ( 2008.,,, ).,,,.,,, -, : (, ),,,,, :,, ( ), ,, ,, (. 3, 4) , ) ; 1; 2; 10; 1 1; 1; 2; 2; 1; 1; 1 1; 2; 2; 4; 3; 2; 3; 2; 5,. 1% (. 4),, 3 : - STATISTICA ) : 1., ,. -,,,.; 3.,. : ; ; ; ;. 4 4 F- - D/E 35, , , P/A 5 6, , , , Var (Sales) 6 11, , ,9160 0, ROA 7 20, , , , (.. 5).,,, , ) ; 1; 2; 1; 1; 2; 2; 3; 1; 2; 1; 2; 1; 10; 2; 4; 2; 1; 1 1; 2; 2; 1 1; : - STATISTICA 7. 5 P/A. 6 Var (Sales). 7 ROA. 8 : - STATISTICA
3 ..,., (. 6) F- - D / E 2, , , , P / A 30, , , , Var 32, , , , (Sales) ROA 24, , , , % (.. 6),,. : 1-.,, ,., -,, ,, , , ,,, -.,,,., -,, -, -, -,,,,, -,. : (pooled); (fixed effect); (random effect).,,. - 5%- - : F- - ; ;. (pooled). -,. R 2 (. 8). : (Breusch-Pagan): LM = 98,7693; p- = P( (1) > 98,7693) = = 2,83692e-023. p -,. -,., ( ).,. -,.,,,. 9 : - STATISTICA
4 D/E 0,56 0,36 0 6,89 0,78 ( ) P/A 0,53 0,54 0,01 2,11 0,25 g(a) 0,25 0,12-0,34 4,56 0,54 ROA 7,36 6,50-40,40 42,26 9,97 (..) A (..) Sales Var(Sales) 0,338 0,293 0,029 1,051 0, :, (POOLED) ( 262, 53, : LN(D/E)) 10 t- P const -3, , ,1318 <0,00001 *** ROA -0, , ,4264 <0,00001 *** Var (Sales) -0, , ,2927 0,02267 ** ln(a) 0, , ,4354 0,00069 *** P/A 0, , ,2072 0,02819 ** , , R- 0, R- 0, F (4, 257) 16,25434 (F) 6,99e :, 209, 53, : LN(D/E)) -. t- P- - const -4,1312 2, ,8992 0,05943 * g(a) 0, , ,2946 0,00122 *** ln(sales) 0, , ,1203 0, P/A 0, , ,2912 0, : : * 10%- ; ** 5%- ; *** 1% , , R- 0, R- 0, F (55, 153) 10,87857 (F) 1,01e , , , ,6041 F. 12 3:, (GLS) 262, 53, : LN(D/E)) - -. t- P- Const -4, , ,2564 <0,00001 *** ROA -0, , ,0403 0,00261 *** ln(a) 0, , ,3274 0,00002 *** P/A 0, , ,1063 0, Var -1, , ,6746 0,09523 * (Sales) , , , , , , , ,7023, -, -, ).,,
5 .., 2. :. : F(52, 153) = 10,7367; = P(F(52, 153) > 10,7367) = 8,43907e-031. F,,., -.,.,.,..,, 3. (Breusch-Pagan) : : = 0; : - (1) = 98,7693; = 2,83692e (Hausman) -. : : ; : - (3) = 43,0818; = 2,36452e ,,,,,,.,, - (,,,,,,,,, ),. -,,.. 14,. 14 LN(D/E)) 12-1,279* (0,764) 0,446 (0,403) Var(Sales) P/A g(a) - - ln(a) ROA 0,179*** (0,052) ln(sales) - -0,051*** (0,008) (pooled) -0,998** (0,435) 0,712** (0,323) - 0,949 (0,735) 0,382*** (0,116) - 0,211 (0,188) ,343*** (0,079) - -0,023*** (0,008) : * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%. 2:,,. 3:. 337
6 (>1),.,,., -,,. -,,. 5,, ,,,, -, 2011.,. -,.,,,,. 2007, 2011.,,,,. (<0,1).,,,. (0,3-0,6),., 1,,.,,,.,.., 1, -,,., -,,, -,.,, -.,,,,. -.,,,.,.,,,,,.,,., :, ;,, ;,, ;, ;,,..,. -.,, ( ).,,,,,,. : -.,,,, -,. 338
7 , (, ( ) (, (+) ( ) ( ) (+) (+) (+) (-) (+) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) ( ) (+) (+) (+/ ) :., -,,. -. -,,.,,,,,. -..,...,,,,..,,.. -,,,,.., : [ ] /.,.,. //. ;. 8 : , [ ] /. // [ ] /. // Lehman Brothers 3.. [] // URL: finance/news/ /zarabotat-na-pokojnike 5.. :,, [ ] /.,. // URL: 31/ /5_zinkevich_olevanova_81_102.pdf 6.. [ ] /. // URL: hse.ru/data/2010/12/31/ /vypusk13_ivanov_5_38.pdf 7.. :, ] /.,. // [] // , (, «+» ). 14 :. 339
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