Money, Credit, and Monetary Policy

Transcription

1 Money, Credit, and Monetary Policy Te-Tsun Chang Yiting Li January 2013 Abstract We study liquidity e ects and short-term monetary policies in a model with fully exible prices, and with an explicit role for money and nancial intermediation. Banks may hold some deposits and money injections as reserves. If banks hold liquidity bu ers, liquidity e ects exist when the fraction of money injections used to nance spending is larger than that of the initial money stock. The lower the substitutability between newly issued money and the initial money stock, the larger the liquidity e ect. We determine the coe cients of the interest rate rules in response to shocks from the rst-order conditions for a loss function. One implication is that, to minimize the loss caused by uctuations in in ation and output is equivalent to setting the money growth rate at the target in ation rate. If the central bank targets in ation only, the optimal coe cient may depend on the magnitude of the liquidity e ect. J.E.L. Classi cation: E41; E50 Keywords: Liquidity E ects; Money; Credit; Interest Rates; Monetary Policy Te-Tsun Chang: ttchang@ncnu.edu.tw. Yiting Li: yitingli@ntu.edu.tw. We thank Jonathan Chiu, Kevin X.D. Huang, Young Sik Kim, Shouyong Shi, and participants in the 16th International Economic Association World Congress at Bejing and the 2011 Econometric Society Far Eastern South Asian Meeting in Seoul for helpful comments and conversations.

2 1 Introduction As governments across the globe struggle to deal with the aftermath of recent nancial crisis, another major round of nancial regulations has been in the works. A recent Basel III proposal on global banking regulation would require banks to hold liquidity bu ers sizeable enough to enable them to withstand a severe short-term shock. 1 Although Basel III rules will not be fully e ective for several years, we can project what the requirement on liquidity bu ers might imply for the monetary transmission mechanism, and how it will a ect the conduct and e ectiveness of monetary policy. In this paper, we o er a general equilibrium framework to tackle these issues, in line with the macroprudential approach. 2 Our framework features exible prices and frictions, which give rise to the roles of money and nancial intermediation (see, e.g., Lagos and Wright 2005, and Berentsen, Camera, and Waller 2007). Banks channel funds from people with idle cash to those who need liquidity to nance unanticipated consumption. The central bank injects money through nancial intermediaries. Agents make decisions on money holdings before they learn the shocks of preference and money injections. An unexpected money injection increases the nominal amount of loans (the loanable funds e ect); nonetheless, it raises the expected in ation and lowers the real value of money and loans (the Fisher e ect). The existence of a liquidity e ect, where output rises and nominal interest rates fall in response to money supply shocks, depends on whether the loanable funds e ect outweighs in ation expectations. Due to limitations on record keeping, enforcement, and commitment, at money is used as the medium of exchange in the decentralized market. Agents, however, are not subject to the standard cash-in-advance constraint because, before trading, they can borrow cash from banks to supplement their money holdings. The amount that agents can borrow is a ected by the banks 1 The short-term liquidity bu ers (mostly comprising cash, central bank reserves, and domestic sovereign bonds), known as the liquidity coverage ratio, require a bank to have enough highly liquid assets on the balance sheet to cover its net cash out ows over a 30-day period following a shock event, such as a three-notch downgrade to its public credit rating. This will come into e ect in See Basel III: International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards and monitoring, December As Hanson, Kashyap, and Stein (2011) argue, a framework with microprudential regulations, which is partial equilibrium in its conception and aimed at preventing the costly failure of individual nancial institutions, is limited. Instead, we need a macroprudential approach to recognize the importance of general equilibrium e ects, and safeguard the nancial system as a whole. 1

3 holdings of liquidity bu ers the fraction of deposits and money injections that may be held as reserves, due to regulations or liquidity management considerations. 3 If the fractions of the initial money stock and money injections that are used to nance spending are identical, then the loanable funds e ect o sets the Fisher e ect. Agents make portfolio decisions as if they knew the future money injections. Thus, in contrast to the previous literature, the informational friction in our model does not necessarily generate liquidity e ects. 4 On the other hand, if the fraction of money injections used to nance spending is larger than that of the initial money stock, the loanable funds e ect dominates the Fisher e ect. Consequently, output increases and interest rates fall. In this case, the higher the fraction of money injections used to nance spending, the larger the liquidity e ect. Given that our model identi es conditions for the existence of liquidity e ects, we use it to study a class of short-term monetary policies. Much discussion on monetary policies nowadays is centered on Taylor rules, which specify the nominal interest rate set by the central bank as a reaction function to changes in in ation and output, among other variables. While the coe cients of Taylor rules in conventional New Keynesian models are usually constant (see Woodford 2003), Board sta at the FOMC meeting of November 1995 suggested that equal weights on in ation and the output gap in Taylor rules may not always be appropriate. 5 One may like to know what the optimal reaction coe cients are when an economy faces di erent shocks. We attempt to ask: What are the optimal reaction coe cients when an economy faces di erent shocks? How should the coe cients be determined in an economy with exible prices and frictions as the one we consider here? Following the approach of choosing the reaction coe cients for a target rule as proposed by Svensson (2003), we determine the coe cients of Taylor rules from the rst-order conditions for a speci c loss function. Our model suggests that the central bank should identify the source of in ation when determining the coe cients. If a negative supply shock occurs, the central bank faces 3 Requiring a bank to hold su ciently high liquid assets is a cost on intermediation. Because of less available information on banks net worth, however, developing countries have to rely on the quantitative liquidity regulation (Freedman and Click, 2006; Ratnovski, 2009). 4 For instance, Lucas (1990), Fuerst (1992) and Christano (1991) attribute the reason for the liquidity e ect to agents inability to adjust their portfolios at the time of the money injections. 5 Transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee, les /FOMC meeting.pdf 2

4 a dilemma: trying to control in ation will dampen output, whereas stimulating aggregate demand will escalate in ation. The best strategy is to set a su ciently small coe cient on in ation, which amounts to setting the growth rate of money at the target in ation rate. On the other hand, when a demand shock occurs and pushes up the interest rate, raising the money growth rate to lower the interest rate will cause in ation to rise. To minimize the uctuations in in ation and output, the central bank should choose a su ciently large coe cient on in ation, which is equivalent to setting a su ciently small money growth rate. In the limiting case, the monetary growth rate should be set at the target in ation rate. These two examples thus deliver the same message: the central bank can accomplish more (i.e., minimize the loss) by doing less. Finally, if the central bank targets on in ation only, the optimal coe cient may depend on the magnitude of the liquidity e ect. The current paper is related to two strands of literature on liquidity e ects and Taylor rules. Using a model with segmented markets, Williamson (2004) shows in a model with segmented markets that, if households can issue private money after they learn the shocks to money injections, the liquidity e ect is eliminated. The mechanism in the current paper is similar to Williamson s: bank s lending of money injections, like the private money in Williamson s model, e ectively removes the buyer s cash-in-advance constraint. The distinction is that our paper identify how bank s holding reserves a ects the magnitude of the liquidity e ect, and we discuss short-term monetary policy. In Berentsen and Waller (2011) a stabilization policy generates real e ects because the central bank can commit itself to a price-level path and undo the current money injection at a future date. Our paper di ers in that we do not assume the central bank can undo money injections; moreover, we discuss a class of interest rate rules with which the central bank can minimize the variation of in ation and output. 6 As for studies on the interest rate rule, Alvarez, Lucas, and Weber (2001) use models of segmented markets to show that increasing the interest rate to reduce in ation can be rationalized with quantity-theoretic models of monetary equilibrium. 7 While delivering a similar implication in a model with nancial intermediation and endogenous cash-in-advance constraints, 6 Previous literature using limited participation models to study liquidity e ects includes, for example, Grossman and Weiss (1983), Rotemberg (1984), and Williamson (2006). They identify the distributional e ect of money injections as the underlying mechanism, but often the models are not analytically tractable, except Williamson (2006). 7 The result is similar to Lagos (2011), who shows in a framework of multiple assets that real money balances are reduced by a higher nominal interest rate. He also nds that the optimal monetary policy is a zero interest rate policy the Friedman rule. 3

5 we further determine the coe cients of Taylor rules. 8 The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the environment. Section 3 derives the equilibrium conditions. In Section 4 we study the liquidity e ect. We discuss issues related to Taylor rules in section 5, and conclude in section 6. 2 The Environment The basic environment is based on Lagos and Wright (2005) and Berentsen, Camera, and Waller (2007). There is a [0; 1] continuum of in nitely lived agents. Time is discrete and continues forever. Each period is divided into two subperiods, and in each subperiod trades occur in competitive markets. There are perishable and perfectly divisible goods, one produced in the rst subperiod, and the other (called the general good) in the second subperiod. The discount factor across periods is = (0; 1); where is the rate of time preference. In the beginning of the rst subperiod, an agent receives a preference shock that determines whether he consumes or produces. With probability an agent can consume but cannot produce; with probability 1 the agent can produce but cannot consume. We refer to consumers as buyers and producers as sellers. This is a simple way to capture the uncertainty of the opportunity to trade. Consumers get utility u(q) from q consumption, where u 0 (q) > 0, u 00 (q) < 0, u 0 (0) = 1 and u 0 (1) = 0. Producers incur disutility c(q) from producing q units of output, where c 0 (q) > 0, c 00 (q) 0. To motivate a role for at money, we assume that all goods trades are anonymous, and there is no public record of individuals trading histories. In the second subperiod, all agents can produce and consume the general good, getting utility U(x) from x consumption, where U 0 (x) > 0, U(x) 00 0, U 0 (0) = 1; and U 0 (1) = 0. Agents can produce one unit of the general good with one unit of labor, which generates one unit of disutility. This setup allows us to introduce an idiosyncratic preference shock while keeping the distribution of money holdings analytically tractable. A government is the sole issuer of at money. The evolution of the money stock is M t = (1 + z t )M t 1, where M t denotes the per capita currency stock, and z t is the money growth rate, in period t: Assume z t = +" t, where is the long-run money growth rate, and " t is a random variable 8 For more studies on Taylor rules, see, e.g., Woodford (2003) for further references. 4

6 with density f on ["; "]: The random variable, " t ; generates a monetary shock, which becomes known at the beginning of period t: In the rst subperiod, the central bank injects money, t = z t M t 1 ; through the banking system, which extends funds to borrowers. This transfer scheme is merely an analytical device to mimic open-market operations. We assume full enforcement, so the central bank can levy nominal taxes to extract cash from the economy, which implies t < 0 and z t < 0. Competitive banks accept nominal deposits and make nominal loans. Sellers in the rst subperiod can deposit their money holdings in banks at the nominal interest rate, i d;t, and are entitled to withdraw funds in the second subperiod. Buyers can borrow money from banks at the nominal loan rate, i b;t ; and repay their loans in the second subperiod. We assume that loans and deposits are not rolled over, and so all nancial contracts are one-period contracts. 9 Moreover, banks have zero net worth, and there are no operating costs. Banks keep records on nancial histories but not on trading histories in the goods market. The record-keeping technology is not available to individuals, so credit between private agents is not feasible. Under the full enforcement of debt repayment, default is not possible. 10 In equilibrium, the loan rate i b;t clears the loan market. Assume that banks are owned by private agents. Because the central bank injects money through nancial intermediaries, banks may have nonzero pro ts. A bank s pro ts are distributed to private agents as dividends, or are withdrawn from agents bank accounts in the case of z t < 0. Moreover, we assume that the central bank injects money equally among banks, and leaves no room for an individual bank to use injections to compete away customers. We consider an economy in which banks may keep a bu er stock of reserves, due to regulations (such as those in the Basel III proposal) or liquidity risk management considerations. A rationale for liquidity risk management is proposed by, for instance, Kashyap, Rajan, and Stein (2002): Banks provide customers with liquidity on demand to satisfy their unexpected needs. Liquidity is provided by o ering demand deposits and loan commitments, which give a borrower the option to take the loans on demand over a certain speci ed period of time. Both of these products require 9 With the assumption on the linear utility costs of production in the second subperiod, agents do not gain by spreading the repayment of loans or redemption of deposits across periods. 10 But see, e.g., Berentsen, Camera, and Waller (2007) and Li and Li (2010), for considering the possibility of default to study the e ects of in ation on credit arrangements, output, and asset prices. 5

7 explicit liquidity risk management. Speci cally, we assume that banks lend out a constant fraction, 2 (0; 1]; of deposits, and a fraction, m 2 (0; 1]; of money that the central bank injects into banks. Though we use regulations and liquidity management considerations to motivate banks holding liquidity bu ers, in Appendix we o er a model with random withdrawal shocks as in the Diamond-Dybvig model to justify banks holding reserves. 11 The timing of events is summarized as follows. At the beginning of the rst subperiod, each agent receives a preference shock. Money injections take place after the realization of preference shocks. Then sellers make deposits and buyers take loans. In the second subperiod, agents settle nancial claims, receive dividends from banks, and adjust money holdings. In section 5, we add demand shocks or supply shocks in the rst subperiod, which occur after the preference shocks but before the money injections. 3 Equilibrium We study symmetric stationary equilibria in which end-of-period real balances are time-invariant; i.e., t 1 M t 1 = t M t ;where t is the value of money in terms of the good produced in the second subperiod. Thus, t 1 t = Mt M t 1 = 1 + z t : As such, the money growth rate, z t ; also represents the in ation rate in the second subperiod of period t: Let V (m t ) denote the expected value from trading in the rst subperiod with m t units of money. Let W (m t ; b t ; d t ) denote the expected value from entering the second subperiod with m t units of money, b t debt, d t deposits, where loans and deposits are in the units of at money. We study a representative period t and work backwards from the second to the rst subperiod, using a similar approach as in Berentsen, Camera, and Waller (2007) to characterize equilibria. The second subperiod In the second subperiod an agent consumes x t ; produces h t goods, redeems deposits, repays 11 Bencivenga and Camera (2011) consider banks and capital in the Lagos-Wright model where depositors make heterogeneous withdrawals, in the spirit of Diamond and Dybvig (1983). Banks, therefore, always hold some positive amount of reserves to satisfy the heterogeneous liquidity needs of buyers. In contrast, banks in our model make loans to satisfy the heterogeneous liquidity needs of agents. 6

8 loans, receives dividends, F t, and adjusts his money holdings. He solves the following problem: W (m t ; b t ; d t ) = max x t;h t;m t+1 U(x t ) h t + E t V (m t+1 ); (1) s.t. x t + t m t+1 = h t + t (m t + F t ) + t (1 + i d;t )d t t (1 + i b;t )b t ; where E t is the expectations operator based on the information of the current period. If an agent has deposited d t in the rst subperiod, he receives (1+i d;t )d t units of money, and if he has borrowed b t ; he should repay (1 + i b;t )b t units of money. Substituting h t from the budget constraint into the objective function, we obtain W (m t ; b t ; d t ) = t (m t + F t ) + t (1 + i d;t )d t t (1 + i b;t )b t The rst order conditions are: + max x t;m t+1 fu(x t ) x t t m t+1 + E t V (m t+1 )g: U 0 (x t ) = 1; (2) E t V m (m t+1 ) t ; = if m t+1 > 0; (3) where V m (m t+1 ) is the marginal value of an additional unit of money taken into the rst subperiod of t + 1: Equation (2) implies x t = x for all agents and for all t: The intertemporal equation (3) determines m t+1 ; independent of the initial holdings of m t when entering the second subperiod. Therefore, the distribution of money holdings is degenerate at the beginning of a period. The envelope conditions are W m = t ; (4) W b = t (1 + i b;t ); (5) W d = t (1 + i d;t ): (6) The rst subperiod Let q b;t and q s;t denote the quantities consumed by a buyer and produced by a seller, respectively, and p t denote the nominal price of the good, in period t: An agent may be a buyer with probability ; spending p t q b;t units of money to get q b;t consumption, or he may be a seller with probability 7

9 1 ; receiving p t q s;t units of money from q s;t production. Because buyers do not make deposits and sellers do not take out loans, in what follows we let b t denote loans taken out by buyers and d t deposits of sellers, and drop these arguments in W (m t ; b t ; d t ) where relevant for notational simplicity. The expected utility of an agent entering the rst subperiod of period t with money holdings m t is V (m t ) = [u(q b;t ) + W (m t + b t p t q b;t ; b t )] + (1 )[ c(q s;t ) + W (m t d t + p t q s;t ; d t )]: (7) Agents trade in a centralized market, so they take the price p t as given. A seller solves max c(q s;t ) + W (m t d t + p t q s;t ; d t ) q s;t;d t s.t. d t m t : Let d;t denote the multiplier on the deposit constraint. The rst order conditions are c 0 (q s;t ) + p t W m = 0; W m + W d d;t = 0: Using (4) and (6) the rst order conditions become p t = c0 (q s;t ) t ; (8) d;t = t i d;t : Equation (8) implies that a seller s production is such that the marginal cost of production, c0 (q s;t) t, equals the marginal revenue, p t : For i d;t > 0, the deposit constraint binds and sellers deposit all money balances; i.e., d t = M t portfolio brought to the rst subperiod. A buyer s problem is 1 : Moreover, the production q s;t is independent of the seller s initial max q b;t ;b t u(q b;t ) + W (m t + b t p t q b;t ; b t ) s.t. p t q b;t m t + b t : 8

10 The buyer faces the cash constraint that his spending cannot exceed his money holdings, m t ; plus borrowing, b t : He should have faced a constraint stating that his borrowing cannot exceed a certain credit limit. However, because banks can force borrowers to repay loans at no cost, the borrowing constraint does not bind; i.e., b t 1; and hence, we ignore this constraint. Let t be the multiplier on the buyer s cash constraint. Using (4), (5), and (8), the rst order conditions are u 0 (q b;t ) = c 0 (q s;t )(1 + t ) t (9) t i b;t = t : (10) If t = 0, (9) reduces to u 0 (q b;t ) = c 0 (q s;t ); implying i b;t = 0: If t > 0, the cash constraint binds, and the buyer spends all of his money; i.e., Combining (9) and (10), we obtain q b;t = m t + b t p t : (11) u 0 (q b;t ) c 0 (q s;t ) = 1 + i b;t; (12) which implies that buyers borrow up to the point at which the marginal bene t of an additional unit of borrowed money, u0 (q b ) c 0 (q s), equals the marginal cost, 1 + i b;t: To nd an agent s optimal money holdings, we take the derivative of (7) with respect to m; and use (4) and (6) to get the marginal value of money: An agent receives u0 (q b;t ) p t V m (m t ; d t ) = u0 (q b;t ) p t + (1 ) t (1 + i d;t ): (13) from spending the marginal unit of money as a buyer, and if he is a seller, he deposits the idle cash in banks, which is valued t (1 + i d;t ) in the second subperiod. Using (3) lagged one period to eliminate V m (m t ; d t ) from (13), an agent s optimal money holdings satisfy E t 1 [ u0 (q b;t ) p t + (1 ) t (1 + i d;t )] t 1 ; = if m t > 0: (14) Condition (14) states that the cost of acquiring an additional unit of money must be greater than the expected discounted bene t, with the equality holding if agents choose to hold money. 9

11 In a symmetric equilibrium, the market-clearing conditions for goods, money, and loan markets are (1 )q s;t = q b;t ; (15) m t = M t 1 ; (16) b t = (1 )d t + m t ; (17) respectively. In the loan market clearing condition, (17), the per capita funds available for banks to lend out include fraction of deposits, (1 capita loans demanded is b t : )d t ; plus m fraction of money injection, while per Finally, banks are perfectly competitive with free entry, so they take as given the loan rate and the deposit rate. There is no strategic interaction among banks or between banks and agents, and no bargaining over the terms of the loan contract. Because the monetary authority injects money into all banks, competitive banks may earn positive pro ts. 12 pro t is! = i b;t b t i d;t (1 )d t + t : Substituting (1 )d t = bt m t a bank s pro t as! = [1 + i d;t m] t + [i b;t A bank s per capita end-of-period from (17), one can rewrite i d;t ]b t: The zero marginal pro t condition implies (see Appendix A2 for the details to derive solutions to the bank s problem): 4 Liquidity E ects i b;t = i d;t : In this section we identify the conditions for the existence of liquidity e ects, and discuss whether the Friedman rule achieves the e cient allocation. An unexpected money injection results in two opposite e ects: it increases the nominal amount of loans that buyers can borrow to spend (loanable funds e ect), whereas it also raises in ation expectations and lowers the future value of money (Fisher e ect). There are liquidity e ects if the loanable funds e ect outweighs the Fisher e ect. The total funds available for each buyer to nance consumption in the rst subperiod include his money holdings, m t ; and the money he borrows from banks, b t : From the loan-market-clearing 12 As argued by Fuerst (1994), there is nothing gained in explicitly modelling the open-market operations since the gains of the loanable reserves would be exactly o set by the loss of the interest-bearing securities. 10

12 condition, (17), we have b t = (1 )d t + m t : (18) Substituting d t = m t ; t = z t M t 1 ; and the market-clearing condition for money, m t = M t 1 ; into (18), we obtain the total funds available per buyer in the rst subperiod: m t + b t = ( + mz t ) M t 1 ; (19) where = + (1 ): Note that is the fraction of the initial money stock, M t 1 ; that can be used to nance spending. In equilibrium the cash constraint binds, i.e., q b;t = mt+bt p t ; from which we derive the relationship between q b;t and the money injection, z t : q b;t c 0 ( q b;t 1 ) = ( + mz t ) t 1 M t 1 ; (20) (1 + z t ) by using (8), (19), and 1 + z t = t 1 : Taking the derivative of (20) with respect to z t ; we obtain t = t 1 M t 1 ( m ) (1 + z t ) 2 [c 0 ( q b;t 1 ) + q b;t 1 c00 ( q b;t 1 )] Observe from (21) that the existence of liquidity e ects t 8 < : > > = 0 if m = 0: < < (21) > 0) depends on whether the fraction of money injections used to nance spending, m ; is larger than that of the initial money stock, : Note that the amount of money used to nance spending and thus, determine the in ation rate, in the rst subperiod is ( + m z t )M t 1 ; whereas the total end-of-period money stock, (1 + z t )M t 1 ; determines the in ation rate in the second subperiod. To see more clearly the underlying mechanism, rewrite (20) as q b;t c 0 ( q b;t 1 ) = (1 + m t z t)m t 1 : (22) It is clear that the term, 1+ m z t ; in (22) captures the money growth rate determining the in ation rate in the rst subperiod, whereas 1 + z t is the money growth rate determining the in ation rate in the second subperiod. If m >, an increase in z t raises the total funds used, and in ation relatively higher than those in the second subperiod market. As a result, the price in the rst subperiod rises more relative to the price in the second subperiod, causing higher incentives to 11

13 produce for sellers. The loanable funds e ect dominates the Fisher e ect, and consequently, output rises by an increase in the growth rate of money. When = m, output is independent of the in ation rate, a result which is di erent from some of the previous studies that also assume uncertainty in trading opportunities (e.g., Lagos and Wright, 2005). The reason is as follows. In this economy, money injections, borrowing, and the rst subperiod goods trade take place within the same subperiod. Though agents make portfolio choices before money injections, buyers can borrow money and agents know the future value of money when they trade in the rst subperiod. Thus, agents make portfolio decisions as if they knew what the future money injections would be. Or, equivalently, it is as if agents could choose money holding in the rst subperiod, and thus, liquidity e ects are eliminated. An immediate implication is that if banks hold no liquidity bu ers ( = m = 1); there is no liquidity e ect. When q b;t rises in response to money injections, interest rates fall. To see this, note that u 0 (q b;t ) = c 0 ( q b;t 1 )(1 + i b;t) from (12) and (15). The case with m > can happen only if banks hold liquidity bu ers. This is so because given m 1 and > 0; < 1 implies < 1: In reality, banks do not lend out all deposits due to regulations or liquidity risk management, whereas often they have no such considerations for the money injected by the central bank. This implies m = 1 > : As a result, the loanable funds e ect dominates the e ect of expected in ation, and money injections increase output and lower nominal interest rates. 13 Note that and m a ect not only the existence but also the magnitude of the liquidity e ect. Equation (21) shows that the magnitude of the liquidity e ect, measured t ; increases in m and decreases in : As the di erence between m and becomes larger, the loanable funds e ect is much stronger than the Fisher e ect, and consequently, the liquidity e ect is larger. One implication is that, given m = 1; unexpected money injections will cause a larger e ect on output and interest rates when banks keep a larger fraction of deposits as reserves. The following proposition summarizes the main results. Proposition 1 If banks hold no liquidity bu ers, liquidity e ects are eliminated. If banks hold 13 In numerical examples, we set u(q b ) = 2q 1 2 b ; c(q s) = q2 s 2 ; = :5; M t 1 = 100; = :11; m = 1 and = :8. As the central bank injects money, e.g., z t increases from :05 to :051, consumption, q b;t, increases from :0: to :858909; and the loan rate, i b;t ; decreases from : to :

14 liquidity bu ers, liquidity e ects exist if and only if the fraction of money injections used to nance spending is larger than that of the initial money stock. In this case, the higher the fraction of money injections used to nance spending, the larger the liquidity e ect. Financial Intermediation and the Friedman Rule. We now show that the Friedman rule achieves the rst-best allocation in our model, in which monetary policy works through nancial intermediaries. 14 When banks lend out all deposits and money injections, the loan rate equals the deposit rate, and from (8) and (12), (14) becomes E t 1 [ t (1 + i d;t )] t 1 : (23) 1 We de ne the average real return on money as 1+ ;i.e., E t 1 t 1 t To implement the Friedman rule in this economy, the policy needs to set the expected return on money equal to the real interest rate; i.e., 1 1+ = 1. From (9) and (10), u0 (q b;t ) = c 0 (q s;t ) when i d;t = 0; and the Friedman rule achieves the e cient allocation. The Friedman rule ensures that agents can perfectly insure themselves against preference shocks because holding currency has zero costs. The Friedman rule also achieves the e cient allocation in an economy where banks hold liquidity bu ers. Given i b;t = i d;t ; the loan rate is larger than the deposit rate. Equation (14) becomes E t 1 t [(1 + i b;t ) + (1 )(1 + i d;t )] t 1 : (24) Under the policy that sets 1 + = ; we obtain u 0 (q b;t ) = c 0 (q s;t ) from (24), as i d;t and i b;t approach to 0. The Friedman rule achieves the e cient allocation. 5 In ation, Interest Rates, and Taylor Rules It is widely accepted that a main goal of monetary policy is to stabilize the price level. 15 There is also a consensus among practitioners that the monetary policy instrument used to achieve this goal should be the short-term interest rate. Economists have focused discussions on a class of strategies 14 Our discussion about the Friedman rule is similar to Berentsen, Camera, and Waller (2005), who consider the real e ect of monetary injections without the banking system. 15 Friedman (1968) said that monetary policy can o set the major disturbances arising from other sources and provide a stable background for the economy. 13

15 known as the Taylor rule (Taylor, 1993), which suggests a simple instrumental rule whereby the monetary authority sets the instrument rate in response to in ation and output gap: i s t = { s + ( t ) + y (y t y t ); (25) where i s t is the instrument rate in period t; { s is the sum of the real interest rate and the target in ation rate, t is the actual in ation rate, is the in ation target, y is (log) output, and y t is (log) potential output. The coe cients in (25), and y ; are positive, which govern the reaction of the central bank. While the coe cients of Taylor rules are assumed constant in many studies, one may wonder whether constant coe cients are optimal when the economy faces di erent shocks. In this section, we tackle this question by determining the coe cients of an instrument rule from the rst-order conditions for a speci c loss function, as suggested by Svensson (2003). We adopt the following approach. First, we study the short-run connections among the money growth rate, in ation, and interest rates. In this economy, the central bank follows an instrument rule with exogenously speci ed coe cients, e.g., the Taylor rule (25). The variables that the central bank targets are the current in ation rate and the output gap, both of which are a ected by shocks. We will show that raising the interest rate to reduce in ation is consistent with reducing the money growth rate, as implied by the quantity theory of money. Then, based on the short-run relationship explored, we will determine the coe cients of the Taylor rule for di erent shocks. To address the issue of how the short-term policy responds to shocks while obtaining analytical results, we assume the following functional forms. The cost function is c(q s;t ) = q2 s;t 2(1+ t), where t is an i:i:d: shock with mean zero and variance 2 < 1: The utility function is u(q b;t ) = (1+ t )q1 b 1, where is the constant coe cient of relative risk aversion, and t is an i:i:d: shock with mean zero and variance 2 < 1. We call t the supply shock, and t the real demand shock. In this section we consider only the commonly observed case in which banks keep some reserves but lend out all money injected by the central bank; i.e., m = 1 > ; so liquidity e ects exist. 5.1 The short-run equilibrium We now explore the short-run connections among the money growth rate, in ation, and interest rates in the face of shocks. Suppose that the central bank uses the loan rate, i s b;t, as the instrument 14

16 rate, and follows the Taylor rule (25). Then, i s b;t is set at i s b;t = + + ( t ) + ( ); (26) 2 where is the potential output. Note that the output gap, log y t log y t, is equal to 1 2 ( t ) under our model speci cations. 16 If current in ation exceeds the targeted in ation, or there exists an output gap ( t > 0), the central bank should raise the interest rate, i s b;t, above its longrun level, +. Assume that 0 < 1 and 0 < 1, where and are exogenous upper bounds of the coe cients. A policy is called active if an increase in in ation by one percentage point prompts the central bank to raise the instrument rate by more than one percentage point ( > 1); and it is called passive if < 1. Without loss of generality, we set = 0 in the following discussion. In this section in ation is measured in terms of the nominal price in the rst subperiod, p t = c 0 (q s;t) t, instead of the nominal price in the second subperiod, 1 t. The reason is that our focus is on how the central bank reacts to shocks, which occur in the demand or supply of goods in the rst subperiod and a ect the market price p t ; whereas t is determined by the total money stock in the second subperiod. Let t pt p t 1 1 denote the in ation rate in the rst subperiod. Then, t ' ( t t 1 ) (z t ) 1 2 (z t 1 ); (27) (See the Appendix for the derivations of equations (27) (29)). In the long run, t = t 1 = = 0, t = ; and (27) implies that the money growth rate equals the target in ation rate, z t = z t 1 =. That is, in the long run, in ation is a monetary phenomenon. In the short-run, however, a money injection or a negative supply shock can lift in ation. To implement the policy, the central bank needs one more equation that describes the behavior of market interest rates. Applying the log-approximation (i.e., log(1 + x) ' x) on (12) and (20), we obtain i b;t = { b;t + t t + (1 + )( 1) (z t ); (28) 2 where { b;t is the long-run average loan rate (note that in the long run t = 0; t = 0 and z t = ). Equation (28) implies that a positive shock from the demand or supply side will raise the interest q q 16 1 In the Appendix we show that q b;t = t 1 M t 1 (1+ t )(+z t ) (1+z t, and q ) s;t = q b;t = t 1 M t 1 (1+ t )(+z t ) 1 1 (1+z t. ) Therefore, the output gap, log y t log y t = log q s;t log q s;t = 1 (t ). 2 15

17 rate. A positive demand shock increases marginal utility, while a positive supply shock reduces the marginal cost and the price; both e ects induce agents to borrow more, and hence, the interest rate rises. 17 Now we have three equations, (26), (27), and (28), to describe the relationship among three variables, f t ; i b;t ; z t g. 18 To study the short-run equilibrium, we focus our attention on the behavior of z t ; from which one can infer the behavior of t and i b;t : Suppose that the market interest rate equals the target rate; i.e., i b;t = i s b;t : Substituting i b;t = i s b;t into (26) and (28), we obtain z t as a rst-order di erence equation: where A z = z t = [( + 1 ) t t t ] (1 + )(1 ) + (1 + ) + A z (z t 1 ); (29) (1 ) (1+ )(1 )+(1+) < 1 is the parameter that captures the lingering e ect of shocks. One can interpret (29) as the epitome of dynamic systems, and use it to understand the e ects of demand or supply shocks on in ation and interest rates. Note that we have a stable solution of z t : the speed of convergence, A z ; is always less than 1; due to the fact that we consider long-run stationary equilibria in which real balances are time invariant. Two factors a ect the lingering e ect: a decrease in or an increase in raises A z. Note that a ects the magnitude of liquidity e ects, and represents the activeness of Taylor rules. If liquidity e ects are stronger (smaller ) or monetary policy is more active (larger ), the e ect of shocks lasts longer (larger A z ), and so it takes more time to achieve the target in ation rate after shocks. The intuitive reason is this. A strong liquidity e ect implies that, a given change in z t will cause a large deviation of in ation from its target level when approaching the long-run equilibrium. Hence, it takes longer for z t to approach its long-run value. We use the following two examples to show that implementing the short-term interest rate rule to reduce in ation is consistent with the quantity theory of money. For the purpose of illustration, suppose that z t 1 = ; t 1 = 0; and initially the central bank sets z t = if no shock occurs. We assume > as in Taylor (1993). 17 From (28) we have the same observation as in Section 4: When banks keep some reserves ( < 1); higher money growth lowers interest rates, but if banks hold no liquidity bu ers, the interest rate does not respond to money injections. 18 In the long run, the money growth rate and the in ation rate equal the target in ation rate,. Substituting z t = t = into (26) and (28), one nds that i b;t = { b = + in the long run. 16

18 First, consider a negative supply shock, t < 0, which lifts in ation and dampens output. The central bank faces a dilemma: it may decrease the instrument rate, i s b;t ; to stimulate output, or increase i s b;t to control in ation. Under the assumption >, the central bank, following the Taylor rule, will increase the target rate. 19 decrease the amount of the money stock, as (28) shows. To raise the interest rate, the central bank has to One can con rm this argument from observing that in (29) z t should fall below when facing a negative supply shock; i.e., z t = ( +1 ) t (1+ )(1 )+(1+) < 0; because > and t < 0: Therefore, raising the interest rate to control in ation is an indirect way of reducing the money supply. When a positive demand shock occurs, t > 0; buyers are eager to consume and borrow from banks, so the loan rate rises, as (28) indicates. The interest rate is o the target, and the central bank increases money supply to drag it down, as implied by (28). While the central bank raises the money growth rate, in ation will climb. According to the interest rate rule implied by (26), the central bank has to raise the target rate in the face of higher in ation. That is, the interest rate will be higher than the original level. 5.2 The determination of the coe cients of Taylor rules When deriving the short-run relationship among z t ; i b;t, and t in Section 5.1, we imposed arbitrary coe cients in the Taylor rule. We now determine the coe cients of Taylor rules from the rstorder conditions of a speci c loss function. First consider a simple form of loss function, which is an equally weighted sum of the squared in ation gap and the squared output gap: L = 1 2 E t[( ) 2 + ^y 2 ]; where ^y is the output gap, and is equal to 1 2 ( t ) under our model speci cations. The loss function can be interpreted as the sum of the variance of in ation and the output gap. We now derive the explicit form of the loss function in this economy. From (27) and (29), the 19 A negative supply shock implies that t = t 2 > 0 from (27). The instrument rate then becomes i s b;t = t + t = t( + ) > 0 because >. 17

19 variances of in ation and monetary shocks, 2 and 2 z; are 2 = (1 + 2 ) 2 z 4 2 ; (30) 2 z = [( + 1 ) ] (1 ) 2 z [(1 + )(1 ) + (1 + ) ] 2 (1 ) 2 2 ; (31) where 2 is the variance of the supply shock, which also equals the variance of the output gap, and z = ( +1 ) (1+ )(1 )+(1+) is the covariance between the money growth and the supply shocks. From (30), 2 is a weighted average of the variances of the supply shock and the monetary shock, and the weight of the latter is related to the magnitude of the liquidity e ects. Note that the variance of the output gap equals the variance of the supply shock, because ^y = 1 2 ( t The loss function thus can be written as: L = 1 2 [ (1 + 2 ) 2 z 4 2 ]: Because the variance of the supply shock cannot be reduced by monetary policies, the only way the central bank can minimize the loss is to reduce the variance of money growth, 2 z. Therefore, we view 2 z as the loss function that the central bank faces, denoted as e L; i.e., the loss function becomes el = 2 z: ). Next we determine the coe cients of Taylor rules in response to supply shocks or demand shocks. The policy maker s problem is to choose the reaction coe cients, and ; to minimize the loss function e L = 2 z. Supply shocks. Consider that a supply shock occurs. Substituting 2 = 0 into (31), we obtain From the rst-order e el = [( + 1 ) ] 2 2 2(1 ) 2 z [(1 + )(1 ) + (1 + ) ] 2 (1 ) 2 2 : (32) + 1 = = 0; we have 2(1 ) [(1 + )(1 ) + (1 + ) ] 2 f( ): (33) 18

20 Substituting (33) into (32), the central bank s problem becomes: [(1 + 2 min f( ) 2 ) 2 2 2(1 ) z ] 2 [(1 + )(1 ) + (1 + ) ] 2 (1 ) 2 2 : The solution is = 0; which, together with (33), implies that = 1 : When a negative supply shock occurs, the central bank faces a dilemma: trying to control in ation decreasing the aggregate demand will dampen output, whereas increasing the aggregate demand to stimulate the economy will escalate the in ation. Our result implies that, to minimize the volatility of in ation and output in this economy, the central bank should set as small as possible. 20 to setting the money growth rate at the target in ation rate, as indicated by (29). This amounts Demand shocks. Now consider that a demand shock occurs. Substituting 2 = z = 0 into (31), we obtain el = [(1 + )(1 )] 2 + 2(1 + )(1 2 ) : Observe e < 0, because < 1: If the demand shock tends to uctuate often and on a large scale, the central bank may intend to choose a su ciently large to minimize the uctuation of in ation. This result can be interpreted as follows. If the central bank sets =, where is the exogenously imposed upper bound of the weight, then from (29), z t = + 2 t (1+ )(1 )+(1+) : The implication is that the central bank, in order to minimize the loss, chooses the smallest possible z t to control in ation. If there were no restrictions on coe cients, the central bank could set an arbitrarily large ; i.e.! 1: This implies that, from (29), the central bank simply sets the money growth rate at the target in ation rate; i.e., z t =. We summarize the results in the following proposition. Proposition 2 Consider the cost function, c(q s;t ) = q2 s;t 2(1+, and the utility function, u(q t) b;t) = (1+ t )q 1 b 1, where t and are i:i:d: shocks. If the central bank follows Taylor rules speci ed in (25), the coe cients that would minimize the volatility of in ation and output gap are (i) = 0 and = 1 when there is a supply shock, and (ii) = when there is a demand shock. 20 In this case, if the central bank follows the policy rule as in Taylor (1993), with coe cients = 1:5 and = 0:5, it will cause higher volatility of in ation. 19

21 As a nal remark, the coe cients and in the above examples do not depend on the magnitude of liquidity e ects; however, it may not be so if we consider other types of Taylor rules. For instance, if the central bank targets in ation only, the optimal coe cient may depend on. To illustrate this point, suppose that the central bank sets the interest rate as i s b;t = + + ( ); and a supply shock occurs. To minimize the loss function, the central bank would choose! 0 as! 0; and! as! The intuitive reason is that when the liquidity e ect is large (small ), a change in the money growth rate will induce a larger change in the interest rate. To minimize the volatility of in ation, therefore, the central bank should set a su ciently small coe cient, : When the liquidity e ect is very small (large ), a large coe cient causes only a slight uctuation of in ation. Actually, according to (29), the central bank should set the money growth rate at the target in ation rate as in previous scenarios. Our result supports Alan Blinder s suggestion that the coe cients in Taylor rules will likely alter if the variables that the central bank targets are changed (FOMC, May, 1995). 6 Conclusion This paper studies liquidity e ects and short-term monetary policies in a model with fully exible prices, and with a explicit role for money and nancial intermediation. We have shown that, if banks hold no liquidity bu ers, money injections a ect in ation but not interest rates or allocation. If banks hold liquidity bu ers, then liquidity e ects exist if and only if the fraction of money injections used to nance spending is larger than that of initial the money stock. The lower the substitutability between newly issued money and the initial money stock, the larger the liquidity e ect. We then apply our framework to determine the reaction coe cients for a class of Taylor rules. Our model suggests that the central bank should identify the source of in ation to choose the coe cients; 21 If = 1, the loss function becomes L e = [(+1 )2 + 2 ]2 2. To minimize the loss L, e the central bank sets 4 2 =. Meanwhile, when = 0, L e = (1 )2 2 2 ; when is minimized at = 1 or = 0. That is, if! 0; (1+ ) 2 (1 ) 2 the central bank sets = 0 to minimize the loss. In the numerical examples, we use the following function form: c(q s;t) = q2 s;t ;u(q 2 b;t) = q1 b ; and we set = 0:5. The optimal coe cient 1 = 0:56; as = 0:2; and = as = 0:8: This implies that, when is relatively small or relatively large, the coe cient increases in. 20

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