Headlines. Tuesday, 25 April Rates: Frexit no longer discounted; neutral ahead of ECB?

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1 Rates: Frexit no longer discounted; neutral ahead of ECB? Yesterday s trading session suggests that the French presidential elections are no longer an issue for markets. In the run up to Thursday s ECB meeting, we think the Bund will find some support. The US Note future remains strong despite upcoming supply and despite hints on a near term announcement of Trump s tax reform plan. Currencies: Dollar hardly profits as sentiment remains risk-on EUR/USD and USD/JPY made a one off rebound after the French election. However, especially the performance of USD/JPY was mediocre as the pair struggles to hold north of 110. Today, the focus turns to the US data and US politics. Will the Trump administration be able to cut taxes sufficiently to give the dollar interest rate support? Calendar Headlines S&P Eurostoxx 50 Nikkei Oil CRB Gold 2 yr US 10 yr US 2yr DE 10 yr DE EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/GBP US equities managed to hold on to opening gains and closed more than 1% higher. Overnight, Asian risk sentiment remains positive with main bourses nearly 1% in the green. President Donald Trump has ordered White House aides to draft a tax plan that slashes the corporate tax rate to 15%, even if that means a loss of revenue, according to people familiar with the directive. The Trump administration will impose new tariffs on imports of Canadian softwood lumber after concluding that Canada subsidises the industry in a way that hurts the US. USD/CAD surged from 1.34 to US President Trump indicated an openness to delaying his push to secure funds for his promised border wall with Mexico, potentially eliminating a sticking point as lawmakers worked to avoid a looming government shutdown. Macron led Le Pen by at least 20 percentage points in three polls ahead of France's May 7 election. Ifop's daily survey showed him with a 60% 40% advantage, OpinionWay put it at 61% 39%, and Elabe put it at 64% 36%. The Home Office is trying to discourage EU nationals from applying for permanent residence in the UK to avoid being deluged by applications after the triggering of the Article 50 Brexit clause. Today s eco calendar contains US consumer confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing index. Germany, the Netherlands and the US supply the bond market. The ECB publishes its bank lending survey. P. 1

2 Rates Substantial losses German bonds on risk on trade after French election Peripherals rally sharply European equities skyrocket US Treasury losses contained US yield 1d 2 1,24 0,01 5 1,81 0, ,28 0, ,93 0,03 DE yield 1d 2 0,69 0,10 5 0,35 0, ,33 0, ,07 0,03 Upside risks New Home sales Downside risks consumer confidence Weaker Richmond manufacturing Macron-Le Pen run-off triggers relief rally European markets opened relieved yesterday, as the first round of the French presidential elections produced a run off between centrist Macron and extreme right candidate Le Pen. Macron is expected to gain a landslide victory on May 7, when the second round is held. Core bonds lost ground, the single currency profited, equities marched more than 3% higher and peripheral spreads narrowed significantly. Trading shifted into lower gear after the repositioning (no longer discounting Frexit risk) in the opening with a lot of sideways action. In the US afternoon session core US Treasuries recouped a large part of initial losses on dip buying. The session closed with big (German) to modest (US) bond losses. In a daily perspective, the German yield curve ended 7.6 bps (10 yr) to 9.9 bps (2 & 30 yr) higher. The steep rise in the 2 and 5 yr yields also suggest (besides unwinding safe havens) rising expectations that the election result may bring forward the ECB s exit from its unconventional policy. Technically, the German 10 yr yield trades back in the 0.2% 0.5% sideways range. Changes on the US yield curve varied between +4.9 bps (2 yr) and +2.3 bps (30 yr). On intra EMU bond markets, 10 yr yield spread changes versus Germany narrowed 19 bps for France versus 11 bps for Belgium. Peripheral spreads declined by 15 bps to 27 bps. Italian BTP s didn t suffer too much from Friday s rating downgrade by Fitch (BBB; stable) or upcoming supply (Thursday). Core spreads dropped 3 to 5 bps. US data in focus The euro area calendar contain French and Belgian business confidence. These data won t move markets as the euro wide PMI business sentiment indices are already released. The US calendar is more important with the key consumer confidence and Richmond Fed survey for April and the New Home sales for March. New Home sales rose a strong 6.1% M/M in February on the back of good weather and the lack of existing homes for sale. After February s strong gains, we expect a small increase, but at healthy levels. Compared to consensus, risks are slightly tilted to the upside. Consumer confidence surged in March to a 16 year high and rose stronger than other measures of confidence. Consensus forecasts a slight drop to 123 from Given the recent outperformance and the weak headline payrolls, we see some risks on the downside, but without compromising the strong underlying confidence. Finally the Richmond Fed survey is expected to have dropped to 16 from 22. As all other regional manufacturing surveys weakening in April, we have no reasons to distance ourselves from consensus. Bund (Black) & EuroStoxx (orange): Sharp risk on repositioning in the opening, followed by calmer sideways trading. French German 10 yr yield spread narrows sharply after French elections. French/Belgian spread narrows too, suggesting French election premium erased. P. 2

3 The Netherlands, Germany and US tap market R2 163,99 1d R1 163,99 BUND 161,37 0,04 S1 161,88 S2 158,28 The Dutch debt agency taps the 10 yr DSL (0.75% Jul2027) for up to 3B. The bond cheapened in ASW spread terms and is interesting compared with surrounding Dutch bonds. We expect a plain vanilla auction. The German Finanzagentur holds a 4B 2 yr Schatz auction (0% Mar2019). Total bids averaged 5.08B at the previous 4 Schatz auctions. The relatively low amount on offer and the probably highest auction yield since November last year suggest that the tap will be easily covered. The bond cheapened in ASW spread terms going into the auction and is rather cheap on the German curve. The US Treasury starts its end of month refinancing operation with a $26B 2 yr Note auction. Currently, the WI trades around 1.25%. Frexit no longer discounted; neutral ahead of ECB? Risk sentiment is positive overnight with Asian stock markets up to 1% higher. The Japanese yen and US Note future lose marginally ground. Sources indicated that US President Trump wants to slash the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. We expect a neutral opening for the Bund. Today s eco calendar contains mostly US eco data. We think they will be mixed (see above), with a neutral impact on markets. Yesterday s trading session suggests that the French presidential elections are no longer an issue for markets. In the run up to Thursday s ECB meeting (unchanged policy expected, no hints on policy normalisation), we think the Bund will find some support. The US Note future managed to erase most of yesterday s opening losses despite upcoming supply and despite hints on a near term announcement of Trump s tax reform plan. Progress on the latter is balanced by delays on other subjects (see headlines) and the looming government shutdown. Technically, the US 5 and 10 yr yield try to recapture lost support levels (1.8% and 2.3% respectively), which would allow them to turn higher in the old trading bands as the Fed prepares another rate hike in June and will start to run off its balance sheet before the end of the year. The German 10 yr yield is already back in its old 0.2% 0.5% trading range as markets no longer discount a Frexit tail risk and perhaps start looking forward to the ECB s normalisation process (this Summer?). German Bund: One off repositioning after 1 st round French presidential elections? US Note future remains well supported despite Fed s intentions and details on Trump s fiscal boost P. 3

4 Currencies Dollar remains in the defensive despite risk rally R2 1,1145 1d R1 1,0906 EUR/USD 1,0865 0,0002 S1 1,0341 S2 1,0000 EUR/USD & USD/JPY settle in tight ranges after initial repositioning. USD/JPY & EUR/USD sideways USD/CAD nearing key resistance as US imposes import tariffs US consumer confidence key eco release for USD trading Will continued risk on rally finally support the dollar. Trump s tax proposals and fate of the spending bill are wildcards for trading On Monday, a (one off) repositioning on the outcome of the French presidential election initially triggered good gains in the EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However, both cross rates soon found a new ST equilibrium and held tight ranges for the remainder of the session. EUR/USD held close to the pivot. USD/JPY initially drifted sideways in the low 110 area, but closed the session on a weak footing as US bond yields failed to maintain an earlier rise, despite a strong equity performance. Overnight, Asian equities make more gains. Global markets are pondering the impact of President Trump s tax proposals and a spending bill that the needs to be approved soon to avoid a government shutdown. For now, it nurtures the global risk on rally, but he rise in core bond yields remains modest. The yen weakens slightly after yesterday evening s set back. USD/JPY is again trading in the 110 area. EUR/USD is holding near The Canadian dollar declined against the USD (see headlines). USD/CAD trades at , nearing the key 1.36 technical resistance. Today, EMU calendar only contains second tier data. The US calendar is more important. US New Home sales rose a strong 6.1% M/M in February. After February s strong gains, we expect small additional gains for March. US Consumer confidence surged in March to a 16 year high and rose stronger than other measures of confidence. Consensus sees a slight drop to from Given the recent outperformance and the weak headline payrolls, we see some downside risks, but without compromising the strong underlying confidence. The Richmond Fed survey is expected to have dropped to 16 from 22. We have no reasons to distance ourselves from consensus.us consumer confidence has the most potential to move FX market. However, unless there is a sharp deviation from consensus, the reaction of the dollar should only be of intra day significance. The USD reaction might be a bit more pronounced in case of a negative compared to a positive surprise. Yesterday, the dollar hardly profited from the risk on rebound as it was driven by a non US event ( the French election result). The focus will now turn more to the US with markets keeping a close eye on the Trump tax proposals and on the approval of the spending bill in Congress. If a shutdown is avoided, it might support a risk rally and give the dollar some interest rate support. However, the dollar wasn t in good shape of late. So, we assume more consolidation in both EUR/USD and USD/JPY till there is more clarity on the US tax proposals and/or on the budget bill. A new failure to implement a workable fiscal policy would weigh on the dollar. EUR/USD holding near the recent highs. USD remains in the defensive USD/JPY struggles to stay above 110, even as risk on reigns. Bottoming process in place, but MT picture remains fragile P. 4

5 From a technical point of view, USD/JPY broke below the 110 key support. We downgraded our USD/JPY assessment to bearish. Next key support (62% retracement) comes in at Yesterday s rebound suggested that a bottoming out process might be in store. However, the pair needs to regain the level (neckline ST double bottom) to really improve the technical picture. EUR/USD extensively tested the topside of the MT range (1.0874/ area) late March, but the test was rejected and EUR/USD returned lower in the /1.05 range. The move met support in the 1.06 area and the pair again tested the range top after the French election. We look out how this test turns out, but we are not convinced of a sustained break higher. If EUR/USD would regain the 1.10 barrier, next resistance comes in in the /1.13 area (US pre/post election swings). Euro strength supports EUR/GBP R2 0,8881 1d R1 0,8854 EUR/GBP 0,8490 0,0007 S1 0,8314 S2 0,8304 Sterling trading was driven by the impact of the French election result on global markets yesterday. The euro jumped higher across the board. EUR/GBP filled offers north of 0.85 early in Asia, but the EUR/GBP rally stalled, as was the case for EUR/USD. The pair settled in a relatively tight range in the upper half of the 0.84 big figure. The price swings in cable were limited. The pair hovered around the 1.28 pivot. The CBI total orders trends were slightly softer than expected at 4 (from 8 in March). The report suggests softer growth at the start of Q2, but the impact on sterling was limited. EUR/GBP closed the session at Cable finished the day at Today, the eco calendar contains the monthly UK budget data. These data are usually only of second tier importance for sterling trading, at best. Of late sterling held strong. For now Brexit uncertainty is a bit off the radar for sterling trading as there will probably be few concrete developments before UK election on June 8. At the same time, the UK eco data were good enough for investors not to add to sterling shorts or even reduce stale short positions. Yesterday s EUR/GBP rebound was a euro move. The price moves in cable suggested that sentiment on sterling remains rather constructive for now. We had a neutral short term bias on EUR/GBP. Early last week, EUR/GBP dropped below the bottom of the EUR/GBP 0.84 support, improving the sterling picture. The pair came within reach of the key support (Dec low), but no real test occurred. After yesterday s rebound, the range bottom looks better protected. Longer term, Brexit complications remain a potential negative for sterling. Of late, this was not the focus of sterling trading. Nevertheless on technical considerations, we are inclined to reconsider a cautious EUR/GBP buyon dips approach. EUR/GBP: jumps on French election range bottom looks safe for now GBP/USD: tentative signs of topping out? P. 5

6 Calendar P. 6

7 10 year td 1d 2 year td 1d Stocks td 1d US 2,28 0,03 US 1,24 0,01 DOW 20763,89 216,13 DE 0,33 0,01 DE 0,69 0,10 NASDAQ 5983,819 73,30 BE 0,78 0,03 BE 0,50 0,01 NIKKEI 19079,33 203,45 UK 1,05 0,02 UK 0,08 0,01 DAX 12454,98 406,41 JP 0,02 0,00 JP 0,21 0,00 DJ euro ,38 137,11 IRS EUR USD GBP EUR 1d 2d USD td 1d 3y 0,03 1,73 0,62 Eonia 0,3580 0,0000 5y 0,20 1,94 0,77 Euribor 1 0,3710 0,0000 Libor 1 0,9906 0, y 0,79 2,26 1,11 Euribor 3 0,3290 0,0020 Libor 3 1,1562 0,0000 Euribor 6 0,2470 0,0020 Libor 6 1,4021 0,0000 Currencies td 1d Currencies td 1d Commodities td 1d EUR/USD 1,0865 0,0002 EUR/JPY 119,68 0,09 CRB 180,93 0,94 USD/JPY 110,15 0,06 EUR/GBP 0,8490 0,0007 Gold 1275,10 0,10 GBP/USD 1,2798 0,0009 EUR/CHF 1,0819 0,0013 Brent 51,80 0,45 AUD/USD 0,7556 0,0002 EUR/SEK 9,632 0,0326 USD/CAD 1,3562 0,0090 EUR/NOK 9,3002 0,0217 Contacts Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force Piet Lammens Brussels Peter Wuyts Corporate Desk Mathias van der Jeugt Institutional Desk Dublin Research France Austin Hughes London Shawn Britton Singapore Prague Research (CSOB) Jan Cermak Prague Jan Bures Petr Baca Bratislava Research (CSOB) Marek Gabris Bratislava Budapest Research David Nemeth Budapest ALL OUR REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE VIA OUR KBC RESEARCH APP (iphone, ipad, Android) This non exhaustive information is based on short term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice. P. 7