Is Oil Fueling the Rise in Political Partisanship? Tom Therramus
|
|
- Ruth Watson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Editors Intro: Tom Therramus looked at whether oil price volatility was a causal factor in the financial crisis in his 2009 article at Oil- Price.net "Oil Caused Recession, Not Wall Street". In this piece, he looks at whether rising volatility in oil prices may also be behind the recent increase in political partisanship in the US. Is Oil Fueling the Rise in Political Partisanship? Tom Therramus In 2009 I published a chart in an article at Oil-Price.net 1 that showed volatility in the price of oil had risen and fallen in a series of seven spikes during the prior decade. The turbulent year of 2008, when oil jumped to over $140 a barrel, was part of this series. But what was unexpected was just how early in the 2000s the signature of spiking volatility in oil price had gotten under way. Further digging led to other surprises. It was found that each of the seven spikes in oil price volatility had been followed by knock-on impacts in the stock market, the price of gold and other economic indicators. Moreover, the relationship was not just confined to the 2000s. In another chart (Figure 1 - TheOilDrum.com 2 ), it was shown that oil volatility spikes had closely preceded every US recession and market crash of the last 50 years. Figure 1 - Historical Oil Price Volatility
2 Indeed, even the mysterious 1987 "Black Monday" crash, the largest one-day decline in stock market history, appeared to fall in line with the pattern. Charting historical data, it stood out like a "sore thumb" that "Black Monday" had occurred in the wake of a price shock sparked by a collapse of the OPEC cartel in The striking coupling between whipsaw changes in oil price and economic turbulence left me wondering about whether this relationship had broader implications. In particular, I was curious as to whether the volatility signature for oil price that had emerged over the 2000s might also be influencing the moods and preferences of American voters. The US is arguably the most fossil fuel-dependent nation on earth. It is also widely acknowledged that the degree of electoral volatility and political partisanship has increased in the United States in recent years. Could discontent sparked by an uptick in volatility in oil prices be one reason behind why American politics of late seems to have gotten so much nastier? To go after this question three US political polls were looked at in relation to volatility in the price of oil between December 1999 and July These polls were: 1) Presidential approval ratings 2) Congressional approval ratings and 3) Direction-of-the-Country in which potential voters are asked whether they feel that the country is on the "right track" or the "wrong track". The data for these polls are archived at RealClearPolitics.com and PollingReport.com. The rationale, methods and approach taken are laid out in detail in a wiki 3 (link) that was started in November Figure 2 summarizes the first of the findings illustrated from the wiki. Here, volatility in oil price between 2000 and 2010 is lined up against volatility in polling data on Presidential popularity. From Figure 2 it can be seen that between 2000 and 2004 there was not too much going on between oil and Presidential popularity. But, at the start of the second term of the Bush Presidency something changes. A relationship similar to that observed between oil and the economic indicators begins to emerge. From 2004 onwards, wobbles in Presidential popularity consistently tend to pop up a month or so down the road from each oil spike.
3 Figure 2 - Presidential Approval Ratings This pattern of oil bumps followed by Presidential wobbles seems to pay little heed to who is in the White house. It starts with President Bush and continues pretty much unchanged through the Obama Presidency. I should mention that the same relationship holds with the other two polls. If anything, swings in "Congressional approval" and "Direction of the country" polls seem even more impacted by volatility in oil price than Presidential polls. Eyeballing the two charts on Figure 2 is one way that relationships between the cycles of volatility shown can be assessed. However, there is a type of helpful math called Fourier transform that is able to look for embedded rhythms in such data objectively and determine if these rhythms are related to each other or not. Music provides an example of how Fourier transformation works. Middle C on a tuned piano is a single note that results from sound waves vibrating our ear drums 523 times a second. If these sound waves are recorded onto a computer and a Fourier transformation applied to them, the resulting graph or frequency spectrum of the note is a sharp peak at the vibrating frequency of middle C i.e., 523 cycles per second.
4 Figure 3 - Swings in Presidential Approval and Direction-of-the-Country Polls are In-Tune with the Oil Volatility Cycle When Fourier transform was used to search for rhythms hidden in oil volatility and swings in polling data over the 64-month time frame between December 1999 and March 2005, no simple relationship between oil market instability and US political polls could be picked out. The frequency spectrums during the first five or so years of the 2000s were as complicated as Rachmaninoff piano chords. During the 64-months from April 2005 to July 2010 the story got simpler and a lot more interesting. As can be seen on Figure 3, the frequency spectrums for Oil, Presidential approval and "Direction-of-the-Country" collapsed to a single main peak during this approximately 5-year time window. Specifically, Fourier transform showed that volatility in oil price, Presidential approval and Direction-of-the-Country were tuned to the same "note" or repeating cycle, in which spikes popped-up every 32.3 months.
5 In summary, Fourier tells us that between 1999 and 2010 oil and politics went from showing no relationship to having an extremely strong one. It should be emphasized that this analysis is backwards looking. Its conclusions are based on a 128-month stretch that began from December It is also cautioned that the pattern may not be stable going forward. The 32.3 month period identified from the retrospective Fourier analysis is not predictive, as oil markets are... well... volatile. This being said, the first oil price spike of the new decade topped out in April 2011, exactly 32 months after oil reached its all time high in July Also notable is that shortly thereafter in September 2011 President Obama's approval rating fell to the lowest level of his Presidency. Correlation is not causation and all that - but these data do give one pause. It also leads to the question of what is causing the spikes in oil price volatility? The conventional wisdom is that this is yet another dismal manifestation of the Wall Street casino. The assumption is that greedy commodity traders are the villains at the root of market volatility. But there is another explanation - albeit a more troubling one. According to the US Department of Energy, the global rate of oil production has not risen appreciably since Production has remained flat for about the last five to six years. There is no danger that we are going to run out of oil soon. In fact, we have never been more awash in the black stuff. This being said, all evidence suggests that we may be at or approaching a geoplanetary limit to oil supply, even though demand continues to grow. The plateau in global oil production may continue for years before a decline sets in. However, the teetering balance between flat supply and rising demand is what some experts believe to be the more likely source of the whipsaw changeability in oil price that is shown over the time period from 2000 to 2010 in Figures 1 and 2. In sum, the jagged pattern of volatility in oil price that is now underway could be a process that is as automatic as a heart beat. This rhythmic pattern may be a natural by-product of our insatiable thirst for oil in a finite world, and something over which we may ultimately have limited control. The prospect that no amount of extra drilling is going damp down spiking oil prices is a message that I do not expect to hear from any politician running for office in the coming Presidential election. All the same, here is a thought that should get the rapt attention of every pol - A "rinse and repeat" cycle in oil price volatility could have become a key determinant of whether you will win your election or not! For the rest of us, the impact of cycling volatility in oil price on our economy, partisan politics and social fabric is likely to grow in seriousness. Expressions of discontent including the Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, or even the inability of GOP conservatives to settle on a Presidential champion may be manifestations of this "rinse and repeat" cycle. Adapting to the increasing uncertainty and political unrest wrought by recurring jolts in oil price volatility could be one of larger challenges that we face in coming years.
6 Acknowledgments: Mike the Mechanic is thanked for his help with the Fourier transformation analysis. Therramus is a neutered Tom. He can be contacted at TomTherramus at gmail dot com This article was written by <a href=" which provides free information on crude oil.
The Price of Oil: Is It Time to Worry?
The Price of Oil: Is It Time to Worry? May 11, 2018 by Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent
More informationData-Driven Trading. Market Adaptation. Stocks & Commodities V. 29:12 (34-39): Data-Driven Trading by Steve Palmquist
be up by the end of the year, and about a quarter thought the market would be down. The second question was, How many of you do not care whether the market is up or down by the end of the year? In the
More informationInfomail. January 26, Crude Awakening
Infomail January 26, 2015 Crude Awakening HAS TIME CALLED THE BOTTOM AGAIN?: Time magazine has an uncanny way of calling the tops and bottoms of so many different markets by telling us of the death of
More informationFED POLICY POST OCTOBER 6. Remarks by. David P. Eastburn. President. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Before the. Philadelphia Chapter
FED POLICY POST OCTOBER 6 Remarks by David P. Eastburn President Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Before the Philadelphia Chapter Financial Executives Institute Philadelphia, Pennsylvania November
More informationTo fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that
01_chap_murphy.qxd 10/24/03 2:06 PM Page 1 CHAPTER 1 A Review of the 1980s To fully understand the dramatic turns in the financial markets that started in 1980, it s necessary to know something about the
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 436 March Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, April PPI May 11, 2012
COMMENTARY NUMBER 436 March Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, April PPI May 11, 2012 Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Downside Pressure on GDP Revision PPI Contraction Due to Seasonal-Factor Suppression
More informationExplaining risk, return and volatility. An Octopus guide
Explaining risk, return and volatility An Octopus guide Important information The value of an investment, and any income from it, can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the full amount they invest.
More informationCorrelation CHEAT SHEETS. By Jason Fielder
Correlation CHEAT SHEETS By Jason Fielder Fellow trader, By now, you've hopefully been watching my videos, and have a pretty good idea about what correlation trading is, and if you're anything like me,
More informationSome Thoughts on Roller Coaster Investing
Some Thoughts on Roller Coaster Investing Take a look at this roller coaster stock price chart. The stock crashed by 63% in just 118 days between late 2008 and early 2009. Then, after a rise over the next
More informationIntroduction Guide to Johnathon Fox's Price Action Trading Strategy
Introduction Guide to Johnathon Fox's Price Action Trading Strategy TRADING GUIDE TABLE OF CONTENTS: - Introduction Guide to Johnathon Fox's Price Action Trading Strategy - The 'Holy Grail' - The Responsibility
More informationBefore we get to all the details, we are going to look at a couple of trades in the first
CHAPTER 1 Let s Get Started Before we get to all the details, we are going to look at a couple of trades in the first two chapters. From them you will get a good idea where we are heading, and how we are
More informationReading Five: How Millions Turned Inflation Into Wealth: The Hidden Truth
Reading Five: How Millions Turned Inflation Into Wealth: The Hidden Truth Much of this reading has been excerpted from The Secret Power Within Your Mortgage Copyright 2007 by Daniel R. Amerman, CFA, All
More informationMLPs Will Weather the Storm
MLPs Will Weather the Storm March 17, 2015 by Sponsored Content from ClearBridge Investments MLPs Will Weather the Storm Pullback Provides Attractive Entry Point for Patient Investors After six years of
More informationPrice of Gold Dives June 02, 2013
In News Focus #38, we look at the price of gold around the world. In 2011, the price of gold climbed to $1,800 an ounce (28 grams). Since that record high, the value of gold has steadily slipped and may
More informationWall Street s Wild Week: Investors Live with It
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: THE STOCK MARKET EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Monday, Oct. 13, 2008 Wall Street s Wild Week: Investors Live with It Stockholders are living with Wall Street s crash,
More informationCanada s Economic Future: What Have We Learned from the 1990s?
Remarks by Gordon Thiessen Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Canadian Club of Toronto Toronto, Ontario 22 January 2001 Canada s Economic Future: What Have We Learned from the 1990s? It was to the Canadian
More informationData Brief. Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy
cepr Center for Economic and Policy Research Data Brief Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy Dean Baker 1 September 7, 2004 CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH 1611 CONNECTICUT
More informationBINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM
BINARY OPTIONS: A SMARTER WAY TO TRADE THE WORLD'S MARKETS NADEX.COM CONTENTS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's Price? And How? Price Reflects Probability Actually,
More informationCRUDE DOLLARS. Monday, April 26, 2015
CRUDE DOLLARS Monday, April 26, 2015 First Quarter real GDP growth was disappointing, but the sluggish growth will prove temporary. First Quarter real GDP growth was disappointing, but the sluggish growth
More informationChapter 1.5. Money Management
Chapter 1.5 Money Management 0 Contents MONEY MANAGEMENT The most important part of investing is money management. Money management involves determining how much of your overall portfolio you are willing
More informationStephanie Kelton: National Debt Washington s Wall Against Progress
Stephanie Kelton: National Debt Washington s Wall Against Progress May 10, 2016 by Robert Huebscher The much-ridiculed plan to build a wall on the Mexican border has dominated the political discourse since
More informationFor example, you may recall global stock markets peaked in late The recession was 2008.
The Booms and Busts Report is a regular update on markets and material economic issues. We also produce Client-Only reports, with portfolio-specific commentary. Question Do you accept that the stock market
More informationWords on Wealth. Welcome to the winter edition of Meridian s Words on Wealth. Meridian W INTER 2015
Meridian Words on Wealth W INTER 2015 Welcome to the winter edition of Meridian s Words on Wealth. The holiday season has passed, which can only mean one thing: it s time to turn (at least some of) your
More informationDavid Stendahl And Position Sizing
On Improving Your Results David Stendahl And Position Sizing David Stendahl is the portfolio manager at Capitalogix, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) firm specializing in systematic trading. He is also
More informationStock Risks to Watch: Choose Your Bear Market Dashboard
Stock Risks to Watch: Choose Your Bear Market Dashboard January 24, 2018 by Daniel Nevins of Nevins Research Ya gadda have a praaacess British portfolio managers mimicking their American colleagues When
More informationThe AB=CD Secret Pattern
The AB=CD Secret Pattern Author: Sundeep Bilkhu www.fibonacciprofits.com Published By: Instant Marketplace Ltd Copyright 2006 www.fibonacciprofits.com All rights reserved www.fibonacciprofits.com is owned
More informationTRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM
TRADE FOREX WITH BINARY OPTIONS NADEX.COM CONTENTS A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITY Forex Opportunity Without the Forex Risk BINARY OPTIONS To Be or Not To Be? That s a Binary Question Who Sets a Binary Option's
More informationValuation Public Comps and Precedent Transactions: Historical Metrics and Multiples for Public Comps
Valuation Public Comps and Precedent Transactions: Historical Metrics and Multiples for Public Comps Welcome to our next lesson in this set of tutorials on comparable public companies and precedent transactions.
More informationA Look at the Regional and National Economies
Seattle Society of Financial Analysts (SSFA) The Ranier Club, Seattle, Washington For delivery May 4, 2000, at approximately 1:30 pm Pacific Daylight Time (4:30 pm Eastern) by Robert T. Parry, President,
More informationBush s Social Security Plan Plays to a Tough Audience
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: BUSH/SOCIAL SECURITY 3/13/05 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, March 14, 2005 Bush s Social Security Plan Plays to a Tough Audience George W. Bush s Social Security
More informationA LOOK BEHIND THE NUMBERS
KEY FINDINGS A LOOK BEHIND THE NUMBERS Home Lending in Cuyahoga County Neighborhoods Lisa Nelson Community Development Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Prior to the Great Recession, home mortgage
More informationCentral banks, the stock market, and gold
Central banks, the stock market, and gold When the pillars of the asset category that must be defended the stock market begin to crumble, the central banks always come in with policy guns a blazin. And
More informationHow Precious Are Precious Metals?
How Precious Are Precious Metals? MATERIALS SECTOR REPORT 9 November 2017 ANALYST(S) Dan J. Sherman, CFA Edward Jones clients can access the full research report with full disclosures on any of the companies
More informationOut of the Shadows: Projected Levels for Future REO Inventory
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Number 2010-14 October 19, 2010 Out of the Shadows: Projected Levels for Future REO Inventory Guhan Venkatu Nearly one homeowner in ten is more than 90 days delinquent on his mortgage
More informationThe Long-Term Investing Myth
The Long-Term Investing Myth January 3, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice During my morning routine of caffeine supported information injections, I ran across several articles that just contained
More informationYOU ARE NOT ALONE Hello, my name is <name> and I m <title>.
So I know why you re here: I bet you ve got some questions about your money: what to do with it, how to make the most of it and how to hopefully get more of it. You ve got questions and the good news is
More informationGeneral Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow?
General Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow? Larry DeBoer January 2002 We re in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the quasiofficial arbiter of business
More informationINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS: DISCUSSION
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS: DISCUSSION William R. Cline* I welcome the contribution that Sebastian Edwards s sharp, lucid paper has made to the literature and to deepening our understanding of the Chilean
More informationTHE CAQ S SEVENTH ANNUAL. Main Street Investor Survey
THE CAQ S SEVENTH ANNUAL Main Street Investor Survey DEAR FRIEND OF THE CAQ, Since 2007, the Center for Audit Quality (CAQ) has commissioned an annual survey of U.S. individual investors as a part of its
More informationSmart Volatility TM. ABR Dynamic Funds Q Understanding Dynamic Management of Volatility As an Asset Class; Strategies used by ABRVX LLC
Presentation Q2 2016 Smart Volatility TM Understanding Dynamic Management of Volatility As an Asset Class; Strategies used by ABRVX Dynamic Funds for a Dynamic Future 48 Wall Street, Suite 1100 New York
More informationUnderstanding and Using Percentages
Percentages Understanding and Using Percentages If you haven t done maths for a while, it might be best for you to start with Fractions 4. Fractions, Decimals, and Percentages. WHAT ARE THEY? Percentages
More informationTrading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle
Trading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle May 3, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: There are two seasonal patterns currently in play for investors: the weak "mid-term election
More informationFederal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017
Federal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017 July 11, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. June Unemployment Report Was Better Than Expected 2. Federal Spending to Blow Through
More informationTHE U.S. ECONOMY IN 1986
of women in the labor force. Over the past decade, women have accounted for 62 percent of total labor force growth. Increasing labor force participation of women has not led to large increases in unemployment
More information3 Factors that Are Changing the Oil Trade
3 Factors that Are Changing the Oil Trade May 16, 2017 by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors For the last five years, crude oil has been behaving a little differently than it has in the past. At least
More informationGlenn Stevens: The resources boom
Glenn Stevens: The resources boom Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Victoria University public conference on The Resources Boom: Understanding National and
More informationIntroduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income Generating Alternatives
Introduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income Generating Alternatives Introduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income Generating Alternatives There are three basic categories of investments:
More informationLena Press and A. Lynn Phillips assisted with the analysis for this report.
The Economy in Review: 2011 By G. Michael Phillips, Ph.D. James Chong, Ph.D. William Jennings, Ph.D. Contact: Research@MacroRisk.com ----------- Lena Press and A. Lynn Phillips assisted with the analysis
More informationPrediction Markets are only Human: Subadditivity in Probability Judgments. Bradley C. Love. University of Texas at Austin.
1 Prediction Markets are only Human: Subadditivity in Probability Judgments Bradley C. Love University of Texas at Austin Abstract Prediction markets establish the probability of future events occurring
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 4, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 4, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationLeavitt Brothers Weekly Sunday, February 28, 2016
Leavitt Brothers Weekly Sunday, February 28, 2016 Join our email list and get reports just like this send directly to you. http://www.leavittbrothers.com/email-subscribe.cfm Overall the market did well
More informationIntroduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income-Generating Alternatives
Introduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income-Generating Alternatives Introduction to the Universe of Non-Stock Market Income-Generating Alternatives There are three basic categories of investments:
More informationTo understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been
To understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been From 2008:1-2009:2, the worst recession since Great Depression, with a slow recovery from 2009:3-2013:1. Historical
More informationDo Moving Average Strategies Really Work?
Do Moving Average Strategies Really Work? August 19, 2014 by Paul Allen Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
More informationEngaging the Big Economic Issues Ahead
Engaging the Big Economic Issues Ahead Economic Media Project November 16, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy
More informationSAMURAI SCROOGE: IMPORTANT CONCEPTS
SAMURAI SCROOGE: IMPORTANT CONCEPTS CONTENTS 1. Trend vs. swing trading 2. Mechanical vs. discretionary trading 3. News 4. Drawdowns 5. Money management 6. Letting the system do the work 7. Trade journal
More informationAUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SUPERANNUATION INVESTORS, AGM. Melbourne, 19 November Check against delivery
AUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SUPERANNUATION INVESTORS, AGM Melbourne, 19 November 2012 ADDRESS BY ASX MANAGING DIRECTOR AND CEO ELMER FUNKE KUPPER Check against delivery Thank you for giving me the opportunity
More informationFRENCH ELECTION RESULTS IN VOLATILITY CRUSH
FRENCH ELECTION RESULTS IN VOLATILITY CRUSH CONTENTS: VOLATILITY SUMMARY The French election met polling expectations (a centrist is favored to win the run-off at this point, and therefore remain in the
More informationASR s US Survey of Household Finances July 2011
Global Alert europe in a global context 9 th September 2011 ASR s US Survey of Household Finances July 2011 The Importance of the Topic This timely survey provides unique and in-depth insights into the
More informationManaging Sudden Stops. Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta
Managing Sudden Stops Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta 1 The recent reversal of capital flows to emerging markets* has pointed up the continuing relevance of the sudden-stop problem. This paper seeks
More informationWhen Gasoline Prices Matter
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy When Gasoline Prices Matter May 17, 2018 Key takeaways» Gasoline prices have risen by 18% year-over-year
More informationWhat Is Carried Interest?
What Is Carried Interest? Interest Has Spiked Google hosts a website called Google Trends (https://www.google.com/trends/), which graphically displays how popular a search phrase has ranked over a period
More information10.2 Recent Shocks to the Macroeconomy Introduction. Housing Prices. Chapter 10 The Great Recession: A First Look
Chapter 10 The Great Recession: A First Look By Charles I. Jones Media Slides Created By Dave Brown Penn State University 10.2 Recent Shocks to the Macroeconomy What shocks to the macroeconomy have caused
More informationJOHN NEEDHAM. Trading Forex. with Danielcode Support and Resistance 42 SEPTEMBER 2008 / VOL. 4 ISSUE 9
MARKET OBSERVATIONS JOHN NEEDHAM Trading Forex with Danielcode Support and Resistance 42 SEPTEMBER 2008 / VOL. 4 ISSUE 9 John Needham continues to explain how the Danielcode provides early notice of support
More informationDoing the Right Thing
Published by TFNN, Corp. ~ 601 Cleveland Street, Ste 618 Clearwater, FL 33755 ~ 1-877-518-9190 ~ http://www.tfnn.com ~ Copyright 2010 ~ All Rights Reserved 02-14-11 Doing the Right Thing Trading is a relatively
More informationChapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuations
Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuations 1 Introduction 1. It is easy for us to tell you not to speculate; the hard thing will be for you to follow this advice. Let us repeat what we said at the
More informationGo Opposite to Hysteria
Go Opposite to Hysteria September 22, 2015 by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James... Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn t go the opposite way, but don t go the opposite way until you have fully examined
More informationThe Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced Debt
Date: August 12, 2010 To: From: Friends of and Campaign for America s Future Stan Greenberg, James Carville, Peyton M. Craighill The Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced Debt A research
More informationWorrying About Rising Confidence
Third Party Research January 12, 2018 Worrying About Rising Confidence eresearch Corporation is pleased to provide an article by Scott Grannis for his Blog, Calafia Beach Pundit. In this article, Mr. Grannis
More informationDoomed to repeat it? November 2008
Doomed to repeat it? November 2008 Christopher C. Finger chris.finger@riskmetrics.com We can track the continuing deterioration of the financial markets by how far back we go to find comparable events:
More informationTwo Weeks Before the Election Confidence is a Point from its Low
ABC NEWS CONSUMER INDEX 10/19/08 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2008 Two Weeks Before the Election Confidence is a Point from its Low With two weeks until Election Day and news that
More informationHow does a trader get hurt with this strategy?
This is a two part question. Can you define what volatility is and the best strategy you feel is available to traders today to make money in volatile times? Sure. First off, there's essentially a very
More informationLessons Learned (or Not)
Risk Management: Lessons Learned (or Not) Professor Mitchell Petersen Kellogg School of Management Finance Department Financial History Matters: Prof Petersen s View of the World History Repeats: Lessons
More informationNotes 6: Examples in Action - The 1990 Recession, the 1974 Recession and the Expansion of the Late 1990s
Notes 6: Examples in Action - The 1990 Recession, the 1974 Recession and the Expansion of the Late 1990s Example 1: The 1990 Recession As we saw in class consumer confidence is a good predictor of household
More informationModule 19 Equilibrium in the Aggregate Demand Aggregate Supply Model
What you will learn in this Module: The difference between short-run and long-run macroeconomic equilibrium The causes and effects of demand shocks and supply shocks How to determine if an economy is experiencing
More informationShort Selling Stocks For Large And Fast Profits. By Jack Carter
Short Selling Stocks For Large And Fast Profits By Jack Carter 2017 Disclaimer: No financial advice is given or implied. Publisher is not registered investment advisor or stockbroker. Information provided
More informationIs it 1932 o r 1942, 1958,
Volume 23, No. 1, April 24, 2009 CWS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC CWS Capital Partners LLC Is it 1932 o r 1942, 1958, 1962, 1970, 1975, 1978, 1982, 2002? CALENDAR OF EVENTS Monday, May 25, 2009 Memorial Day, CWS
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 493 November Trade Deficit. January 11, Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High
COMMENTARY NUMBER 493 November Trade Deficit January 11, 2013 Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High Implications for Weaker Advance-Estimate of 4th-Quarter GDP Consumer
More informationA Snapshot of the Trump Economy
October 2018 A Snapshot of the Trump Economy by Merrill Matthews, Ph.D. There s an old saying that a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, economic graphs are pictures that tell a story and sometimes
More informationThe Hard Lessons of Stock Market History
The Hard Lessons of Stock Market History The Lessons of Stock Market History If you re like most people, you believe there s a great deal of truth in the old adage that history tends to repeats itself
More informationThoughts on the Active-Passive Debate. 4th QUARTER 2016 SBH ALL CAP EQUITY OCCASIONAL PAPER
Thoughts on the Active-Passive Debate 4th QUARTER 2016 SBH ALL CAP EQUITY OCCASIONAL PAPER A front page article in the Wall Street Journal on Oct. 17, 2016, entitled The Dying Business of Picking Stocks,
More informationThe Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales
The Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on Small and Large Firm Sales VV Chari, LJ Christiano and P Kehoe January 2, 27 In this note, we examine the findings of Gertler and Gilchrist, ( Monetary Policy, Business
More informationI produce these economics and markets reports every two months. We produce, more frequently, more in-depth reports, for clients.
I produce these economics and markets reports every two months. We produce, more frequently, more in-depth reports, for clients. It was all over the 'News'. Stocks are crashing. Is this a Recession beginning?
More informationCYCLE INDICATORS. The Theory and Techniques of using Cycle analysis for Forex Trading
CYCLE INDICATORS The Theory and Techniques of using Cycle analysis for Forex Trading The study of Forex cycles is the most important part of this course. When you learn to read cycles you ll know what
More informationMarket Mastery Protégé Program Method 1 Part 1
Method 1 Part 1 Slide 2: Welcome back to the Market Mastery Protégé Program. This is Method 1. Slide 3: Method 1: understand how to trade Method 1 including identifying set up conditions, when to enter
More informationC U L L E N C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T. James P. Cullen Chairman & CEO. Mid-Year Comments High Dividend Strategy -- Revisited -- July 1, 2013
S C H A F E R C U L L E N C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T Mid-Year Comments High Dividend Strategy -- Revisited -- July 1, 2013 James P. Cullen Chairman & CEO Recently market commentators have questioned
More informationGLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY. Does Anyone Ever Know What Time It Is? bcd. Constant Revisions Diminish Investment Significance of Economic Data
Edward Kerschner, CFA +1 212 713 2448 Michael Geraghty +1 212 713 2581 bcd U.S. Market Commentary GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY Does Anyone Ever Know What Time It Is? Constant Revisions Diminish Investment
More informationThe Real Problem was Nominal: How the Crash of 2008 was Misdiagnosed. Scott Sumner, Bentley University
The Real Problem was Nominal: How the Crash of 2008 was Misdiagnosed Scott Sumner, Bentley University A Contrarian View The great crash of 2008 does not discredit the Efficient Markets Hypothesis; indeed
More informationChristiano 362, Winter 2006 Lecture #3: More on Exchange Rates More on the idea that exchange rates move around a lot.
Christiano 362, Winter 2006 Lecture #3: More on Exchange Rates More on the idea that exchange rates move around a lot. 1.Theexampleattheendoflecture#2discussedalargemovementin the US-Japanese exchange
More informationUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer NOTES ON THE MIDTERM
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer NOTES ON THE MIDTERM Preface: This is not an answer sheet! Rather, each of the GSIs has written up some
More informationIn This Issue. Let s Make Some Money This Summer. July 2015 Vol. 2 Issue 2. Fellow Investor,
Let s Make Some Money This Summer Fellow Investor, It's hot where I live, and the market has gone cold. With no real news against which to react, the market seems to be beating down higher yield stocks
More informationJeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued
Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued November 21, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and
More informationWCU: Commodities respond to shock Trump win By Ole Hansen
WCU: Commodities respond to shock Trump win By Ole Hansen It has been another crazy week on the political and financial market front. Donald Trump's unexpected win on Tuesday sent shockwaves across global
More informationKey Findings from the 2018 POS Election Night Survey November 2018
Key Findings from the 2018 POS Election Night Survey November 2018 Micah Roberts Project # 181444 Election Night Methodology Public Opinion Strategies conducted an Election Night survey of N=800 actual
More informationThe $VIX, the Dow, and China. 3/15/2008
The $VIX, the Dow, and China. 3/15/2008 In the past few days, I have received some questions from a few members. These questions cannot be answered in a few words, and because other members may be interested,
More informationAre Lithium Stocks Due, Again, to Catch Up with Oil Prices?
AUGUST 20, 2012 Are Lithium Stocks Due, Again, to Catch Up with Oil Prices? EVENT: LITHIUM STOCKS HAVE EXPERIENCED BREAK-OUTS ALONG WITH OIL IN THE PAST This note revisits the historical patterns that
More informationBrexit: A Black Swan arises in Europe 6/26/2016
Brexit: A Black Swan arises in Europe 6/26/2016 Investopia: A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; the
More information