Schroder UK Equity. Quarterly Fund Update. Summary. Third Quarter Cumulative returns to 30 September 2018 (%) Discrete yearly performance (%)
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1 Marketing material for professional investors and advisers only Schroder UK Equity Fund Quarterly Fund Update Third Quarter 2018 Cumulative returns to 30 September 2018 (%) Z accumulation shares months 1 year 3 years 5 years Portfolio Index Schroder UK Equity Fund FTSE All Share TR 3 mths 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs Discrete yearly performance (%) Fund Benchmark Source: Schroders, net of fees, bid to bid, with net income reinvested. Z Acc share class as at 31 December Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Summary The fund underperformed the FTSE All-Share, which fell over the third quarter recording a total return of -0.8%. Diversified miner South32, electricity generation business Drax and Restaurant Group were among our top positive contributors. On the negative side, not owning bid targets Sky and Shire detracted from performance, as did some of our emerging markets-exposed stocks, which performed poorly in line with the general market trend. Other detractors included TP ICAP, Smiths Group and Tesco. We initiated a new position in temporary power specialist Aggreko, added to BT and used TP ICAP s share price weakness as an opportunity to increase our holding. We disposed of our holdings in Melrose Industries and G4S. After a prolonged period of loose monetary policy (quantitative easing and low/negative interest rates) the rhetoric from central banks has changed and policy normalisation is underway. With robust global economic growth forecasts, low levels of unemployment and inflationary pressures building it is likely that central banks will continue to tighten policy. This presents a very different backdrop to equity markets than at any stage post the financial crisis. Portfolio characteristics Fund manager Alex Breese Managed fund since 16 July 2013 Fund launch date 30 April 1987 Fund benchmark Fund size FTSE All-Share TR 579 million Ongoing charge 0.91% 1 Source: Schroders, as at 30 September Based on the last year s expenses for the year ending December Schroder UK Equity Fund Third Quarter
2 What happened in the market The FTSE All-Share fell amid a tempering of the global growth outlook and renewed Brexit uncertainty after a poor reception to the UK government s white paper outlining plans for exiting the EU. The tempered Performance attribution (%) global growth outlook followed an escalation in the trade war between the US and China. US dollar strength and trade concerns weighed heavily on the emerging markets (EM)-exposed areas of the UK stock market. Allocation effect Selection effect Sector Total effect Basic Materials Utilities Telecommunications Consumer Services Technology Oil & Gas -0.1 Healthcare -0.1 Consumer Goods Industrials Financials -1.2 Source: FactSet. Diversified miner South32 was our top individual contributor following better-than-expected full-year results. The results revealed continued strong cash generation and a further strengthening of the balance sheet, with the net cash position increasing by more than 24% to over $2 billion. The shares remain very cheap based on spot commodity prices and the company is seeing significant earnings upgrades, driven by higher alumina and manganese prices. In addition, we see potential re-rating catalysts on the horizon, including the sale of the South African coal assets and investment in a number of smaller growth opportunities. In light of the very strong balance sheet, and management s willingness to return excess cash, we anticipate ongoing cash returns via ordinary and special dividends, as well as further share buy-backs. Electricity generation business Drax performed very well after it published reassuring interim results in which management confirmed the company is on track to meet full-year expectations. Drax has benefited from continued positive momentum in power prices which, if maintained, is likely to exert upward pressure on forecasts. Meanwhile, the decision to declare a 14% increase in the interim dividend is a positive signal of management confidence in Drax s future cash generation. UK casual dining specialist Restaurant Group was another top contributor on the back of reassuring interim results in which the company reiterated fullyear guidance. The first half was broadly in line with consensus expectations, despite a challenging backdrop caused by the summer heatwave and the World Cup. Meanwhile, H2 trading has got off to a good start, with like-for-like sales stabilising over the first full six-week period following the end of the World Cup, underlining good traction at this early stage management-led turnaround. The results also revealed how the business mix has continued to transition away from restaurants towards pubs and concessions, two parts of the business which are performing well and offer better growth prospects. On the negative side, interdealer broker TP ICAP performed poorly after warning on profits in its first half trading update. Despite delivering revenue growth in line with expectations, management scaled back ambitious cost-saving plans related to the acquisition of ICAP s global broking division the CEO was also replaced in the period. The subsequent interim results were broadly in line with the re-set forecasts. In our opinion the share price reaction to the profit warning was extreme and the valuation now looks highly attractive. As the clear global leader in a consolidated market, TP ICAP is well positioned to reap the rewards of increased trading activity as volatility and interest rates rise. It is a cash-generative business with a robust balance sheet and we used the Schroder UK Equity Fund Third Quarter
3 price weakness as an opportunity to increase our holding. Diversified engineer Smiths Group also detracted following a disappointing performance from its medical division. Despite this setback, the company s other four divisions have performed well, returning the group to organic growth in Preliminary discussions regarding a potential combination of Smiths Medical with US peer ICU Medical were terminated. Following recent weakness the shares are trading at an unwarranted discount to the sector and we believe there is nothing in the price for either a return to growth or a break up of the conglomerate structure. the UK market over the summer. In our opinion the long-term outlook for the group s combined UK and Republic of Ireland business remains good, as consumers continue to respond well to a strategic focus on price, service and availability. Meanwhile, an ongoing focus on improving cashflow and operating margins gives us confidence that this managementled turnaround will deliver higher profit and dividend growth in the future, despite the challenges facing the overseas operations in Eastern Europe and Asia. Some of our EM-exposed stocks performed poorly in line the general market trend, including Standard Chartered, while not owning bid targets Sky and Shire also negatively impacted performance. Tesco suffered due to a combination of profit taking (on the back of a strong share price recovery) and following some disappointing short-term industry data from Kantar Worldpanel, which revealed the supermarket had underperformed its competitors in Top stock contributors (%) Top stock detractors (%) Stock contributor Relative weight Total return Stock contributor Relative weight Total return South TP ICAP Drax Smiths Group BATS Reckitt Benckiser QinetiQ Standard Chartered BP Sherborne Investors Source: FactSet, average positions over the quarter. Portfolio positioning as at 30 September 2018 (%) Sector Relative weighting (%) Consumer Services 7.5 Industrials 4.2 Utilities Oil & Gas Telecommunications Technology Healthcare Basic Materials Financials Consumer Goods Source: FactSet. Schroder UK Equity Fund Third Quarter
4 Key portfolio activity We initiated a new holding in temporary power specialist Aggreko. In our opinion the market is failing to recognise the growth potential of this leading global franchise. Sentiment towards the shares has been negative for some time as a result of the company having been in an earnings downgrade cycle since The downgrades mainly related to a number of highly profitable historical contracts in the utility power solutions division. The division has come under pressure as these contracts have either ended or been rebid at lower margins. At the same time, group earnings were further negatively impacted by the North American shale oil downturn, weighing heavily on the cyclical rental solutions division. Going forwards, the effect of repricing at utility power solutions has largely played out, while a pick up in activity in energy end markets (as crude oil prices have recovered) has driven a broad-based recovery at rental solutions over H1 2018, and underpinned improved performance in the industrial power solutions division. We anticipate a significant positive inflection in free cashflow as the new FD focuses on enhancing cash collection, further self-help measures drive up capacity in the utilities division and profit growth comes through in the other two divisions. A robust balance sheet provides a degree of downside protection. We added to our position in BT over the period. Following an extended period of share price underperformance over the past three years BT s shares are now very cheap while, more recently, the regulatory backdrop has become less uncertain. We are encouraged by the new government framework for rolling out fibre to the home as it prioritises investment in the UK s fixed-line telecoms infrastructure over further initiatives to reduce retail prices in the near term. As such, the framework recognises BT s central role in creating a broadband network capable of supporting a fast-growing digital economy. Furthermore, we were encouraged by the group s Q1 trading update, which was slightly ahead of market expectations and added to confidence that full-year profits guidance will be met. The Business and Public Sector division stabilised in Q1 while the Consumer division enjoyed solid profit growth. We funded this by selling down our remaining position in Vodafone where we have concerns about the higher level of debt on the balance sheet and the sustainability of their dividend, which we believe is not covered in future years. after acquiring the engineer earlier this year. Since completing the acquisition, however, in our opinion the macro risks facing GKN (which has significant automotive exposure) and some of the other assets has materially increased. Despite this, the shares remain very popular with the broader market (sellside analyst recommendations: 12 buys, one hold, zero sells). Such buoyant sentiment only adds to our concerns that Melrose no longer offers sufficient upside to justify the increased risks from trade wars and rising costs. Furthermore, in the event Melrose were to suffer a significant trading setback we would be concerned about the potential knock-on implications for the strength of the company s balance sheet. We exited our remaining holding in security company G4S following disappointing interim results, where wage inflation and an increase in staff turnover negatively impacted margins. The company is five years into a management-led turnaround and the headline net debt/ebitda ratio is still not below their target of 2.5x. Furthermore, despite being five years into the turnaround, restructuring costs have started to increase again, which will be a negative drag on cash generation. In our opinion there is not enough downside protection to justify owning the shares from here, especially when the risks of a tighter labour market are starting to hinder operating performance. Key stock positions (%) Overweights Sector Relative weight Pearson Con' Serv 3.6 Aviva Financials 3.4 Tesco Con' Serv 3.4 Standard Chart' Financials 3.2 BP Oil & Gas 3.2 Source: FactSet as at 30 September We disposed of our holding in industrial turnaround specialist Melrose Industries. Management has an excellent track record with their buy, improve, sell strategy, which they are currently applying to GKN Schroder UK Equity Fund Third Quarter
5 Outlook and strategy After a prolonged period of loose monetary policy (quantitative easing and low/negative interest rates) the rhetoric from central banks has changed and policy normalisation is underway. Further rate rises are forecast in the US and UK while central banks globally are expected to turn net sellers of bonds later in the year as they start to unwind quantitative easing. This presents a very different backdrop to equity markets than at any stage post the financial crisis. Despite the uncertainties created by monetary tightening, Brexit and fears of a trade war, at the sector and stock level we continue to identify pockets of value within the UK market. We continue to focus on these lowly valued areas in the market where we feel there is potential for positive change in the years ahead. Schroder UK Equity Fund: Risk factors Funds that invest solely in the companies of one country or region can carry more risk than funds spread over a number of countries or regions. The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses. Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news. Investments in smaller companies can be less liquid than investments in larger companies and price swings may therefore be greater than in larger company funds. In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares. Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses. Important Information: This material is not suitable for retail clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Alex Breese has expressed his own views and these may change. The data contained in this document has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Unit Trusts Limited (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Issued by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No: England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Schroder UK Equity Fund Third Quarter
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