JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund

Transcription

1 JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund Lessons of 2007 Ben Leyland Senior Fund Manager J O Hambro Capital Management Singapore Annual Investor Day 2017

2 JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund 20 Return/volatility balance vs. peer group USD Concentrated: 18 High conviction portfolio of best ideas Annualised Since Inception Total Return % JOHCM Global Opportunities Unconstrained: Cluster around key areas of opportunity Zero exposure to least attractive areas Disciplined: Avoid overvaluation and overleverage Diversify correlated downside risks Hold cash when valuations are unattractive Annualised Since Inception Volatility Superior risk-adjusted returns Source: Lipper as at 30 June 2017 based on JOHCM Global Opportunities A USD share class against the IA Global peer group in USD. 2

3 Five year performance track record JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund net performance and volatility since inception JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund MSCI ACWI NR Index (12pm adjusted) GLO: 84.5% Volatility: 9.82 Benchmark: 68.3% Volatility: Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra. NAV per share monthly return calculated net of fees, net income reinvested, share class A in USD. Benchmark: MSCI ACWI NR Index (12pm adjusted). Data as at 30 June

4 Performance is being recognised Strategy size since inception 1 3,000 2,500 2,424 2,000 1,771 Million (USD) 1,500 1, Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Segregated Mandates Global Opportunities Fund Source & copyright: Citywire. Ben Leyland is A rated by Citywire for his three year risk-adjusted performance for the period 31 August 2014 to 31 August JOHCM as at 30 June 2017, relates to all the aggregated AUM of all share classes of the JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund in USD, as at 30 June Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Morningstar Overall Ratings and Morningstar Analyst Ratings are as at 31 August

5 We thrive on volatility JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund Relative Return (LHS) JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund Net Cumulative Return (RHS) Grey shaded areas represent the periods of rising volatility MSCI AC World Index Volatility (RHS, GREEN) MSCI AC World NR Index Return (RHS) Source: Bloomberg/StatPro as at 30 June JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra. NAV per share monthly return calculated net of fees, net income reinvested, share class A in USD. Benchmark: MSCI ACWI NR Index (12pm adjusted). Data as at 30 June

6 JOHCM Global Opportunities Alpha analysis since inception % MSCI AC World Adj Poly. (MSCI AC World Adj) JOHCM Global Opportunities NAV Poly. (JOHCM Global Opportunities NAV) Source: JOHCM / MSCI/ Bloomberg as at 30 June

7 Participation in rising markets, protection in falling markets JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund performance in different market environments 6 4 MCSI All Country World NR Index (USD Adjusted) JOHCM Global Opportunities Fund Fund performance (USD) >3% -3% to +3% >3% Index performance (USD) Downside capture = 70.45% Upside capture = 97.99% Heads we win, tails we don t lose too much Source: JOHCM/Stat Pro as at 30 June 2017 institutional USD performance net of fees based on JOHCM Global Opportunities A USD share class and against the MSCI All Country World NR Index. 7

8 JOHCM UK Opportunities % JOHCM UK Opportunities Fund Relative Return (Rising Markets) (LHS) JOHCM UK Opportunities Fund Net Cumulative Return (RHS) Grey shaded areas represent the periods of rising volatility JOHCM UK Opportunities Fund Relative Return (Falling Markets) (LHS) FTSE All-Share TR Index Volatility (RHS, GREEN) FTSE All-Share TR Index Return (RHS) Strong outperformance when markets fall and volatility spikes Source: Bloomberg/StatPro as at 30 June JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra. NAV per share monthly return calculated net of fees, net income reinvested, share class A in GBP. Benchmark: MSCI ACWI NR Index (12pm adjusted). Data as at 30 June

9 The current environment High equity valuations 16 MSCI AC World: EV/EBIT median and dispersion 3.0 Low dispersion 2.5 Low volatility 12 Low credit spreads 2.0 High leverage Jan 99 Sep 00 May 02 Jan 04 Sep 05 May 07 Jan 09 Sep 10 May 12 Jan 14 Sep 15 May 17 Median - EV/EBIT Dispersion - EV/EBIT (LHS) 2007 all over again Source: FactSet as at 30 June

10 What we said in 2007 It is difficult to apply absolute valuation techniques in a market in which investors are using different costs of capital The risk of unwinding the carry trade remains our biggest concern We are wary of the widespread use of relative valuations, M&A multiple readacross and lack of differentiation when applying risk premia As low yields have affected a broad range of asset classes, and equities in sectors as diverse as utilities and food retail, there seems to be little consensus on what constitutes a defensive asset Be fearful when others are greedy 10

11 Sophisticated financial markets or pass the parcel? 11

12 What others said in 2007 When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you ve got to get up and dance. We re still dancing Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO, July 2007

13 What did we do about it? We have worked hard to ensure we are exposed as little as possible to the unwinding of the carry trade in its broadest sense, meaning any beneficiaries of excess liquidity and low yields. We own few financials, no miners, and sold the majority of our large position in utilities. 18 JOHCM UK Opportunities cash balance Avoid overleverage Avoid overvaluation Raise cash to be redeployed later Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Source: JOHCM/StatPro as at 31 March

14 The two advantages of cash If there are not enough cheap stocks to buy then the investor should simply park his or her money in cash and wait for the next turn in the cycle... Holding cash has two distinct advantages in overvalued markets: 1. It avoids losses as and when valuations revert to their long term average 2. Those with cash on hand are in a position to profit when the market finally turns Sir John Templeton 14

15 The result was strong outperformance in Jul 07 Mar 10 UKO +9% ASX -4% Dec 05 Jun 07 UKO +28% ASX +28% Jul 07 Mar 09 UKO -23% ASX -38% Apr 09 Mar 10 UKO +42% ASX +54% Dec 05 Jul 06 Feb 07 Sep 07 Apr 08 Nov 08 Jun 09 Jan 10 Aug 10 Mar 11 Oct 11 May 12 ASX index (TR) JOHCM UK Opportunities Fund (acc) Lower than average volatility drives long term outperformance Source: JOHCM/StatPro as at 29 June 2012.

16 We didn t get everything right Life Insurance Companies Prudential, Legal & General and Aviva cost us 6.9% of our capital Quality compounders although we were bailed out by GBP weakness: P/E ratio June 2007 P/E ratio March 2009 Derating Earnings upgrade Share price Smith & Nephew 24.5x 10.5x -57% 63% -30% 2.3 GBP devaluation Reed Elsevier 18.3x 10.0x -45% 39% -24% Sage 17.4x 10.9x -37% 15% -28% Reckitt Benckiser 21.5x 14.1x -34% 51% -1% British American Tobacco 16.2x 11.1x -31% 39% -5% National Grid 14.0x 10.3x -26% -1% -27% Jan 05 Sep 05 Jun 06 Feb 07 Nov 07 Jul 08 Apr 09 Dec 09 GBP/USD GBP/EUR Source: Bloomberg as at 31 December

17 What if we had been running a global fund in 2007? Other developed markets would only have helped because of currency: Emerging markets behaved like Miners: In GBP In local currency 150 MSCI UK -37% -37% MSCI North America -22% -44% MSCI Europe ex-uk -34% -52% 120 MSCI Japan -23% -56% The derating of quality compounders was universal: P/E ratio June 07 P/E ratio March 09 Derating Intuit % Stryker % Heineken % Procter & Gamble % Shiseido % Microsoft % Walt Disney % Roche % 30 Jun 07 Oct 07 Feb 08 Jun 08 Oct 08 Feb 09 AC World Emerging Markets Miners Source: Bloomberg as at 31 March

18 A final thought Only monkeys pick bottoms 18

19 How are we applying these lessons now? Remain disciplined Avoid overleverage Avoid overvaluation Diversification Be patient Cash and ready to act Watchlist companies across the globe Live monitoring 19

20 A rising market doesn t mean there are no opportunities Share price fall Underappreciated investment or opportunity Balance sheet repair 20

21 Consistent philosophy, dynamic portfolio JOHCM Global Opportunities Sector Allocation 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jul 12 Aug 13 Sep 14 Oct 15 Nov 16 Cash Industrials Staples, Healthcare, Utilities & Telcos Energy, Materials & Financials IT & Consumer Discretionary Portfolio evolves with the opportunity set Source: JOHCM as at 30 June

22 Buying record Average relative return of newly purchased stocks over each time period % T + 6m T + 18m T + 36m Average Return (%) Hit Rate (%) Win Loss Ratio (%) T+6m T+18m T+36m Source: JOHCM/ Inalytics as at 30 June Post-Trade shows the average, unweighted relative returns AFTER purchase, based on all buys since inception, relative to MSCI AC World index. 22

23 Executive summary: Truly active fund management Patient VALU Disciplined Ready to act Heads we win, tails we don t lose too much 23

24 DISCLAIMER THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. J O Hambro Capital Management Limited. Registered in England No: Authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street, London SW1Y 6QB. The registered mark J O Hambro is owned by Barnham Broom Holdings Limited and is used under licence. JOHCM is a registered trademark of J O Hambro Capital Management Limited The information in this document does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for Funds described in this document; nor shall this document, or any part of it, or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract. Recipients of this document who intend to subscribe to any of the Funds are reminded that any such purchase may only be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the final prospectus, which may be different from the information contained in this document. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on the completeness, accuracy or fairness thereof. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Firm or its partners or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information or opinions (but so that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation or warranty made fraudulently). The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law; therefore, persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation of the law of such jurisdictions. The information contained in this presentation has been verified by the firm. It is possible that, from time to time, the fund manager may choose to vary self imposed guidelines contained in this presentation in which case some statements may no longer remain valid. We recommend that prospective investors request confirmation of such changes prior to investment. Notwithstanding, all investment restrictions contained in specific fund documentation such as prospectuses, supplements or placement memoranda or addenda thereto may be relied upon. Investments fluctuate in value and may fall as well as rise and that investors may not get back the value of their original investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should note that there may be no recognised market for investments selected by the Investment Manager and it may, therefore, be difficult to deal in the investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to which they are exposed. The Investment Manager may undertake investments on behalf of the Fund in countries other than the investors own domicile. Investors should also note that changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Sources for all data: JOHCM/Bloomberg/Lipper/ MSCI Barra/FTSE Group (unless otherwise stated). Industry Classification Benchmark ( ICB ) is a product of FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) and all intellectual property rights in and to ICB vest in FTSE. J O Hambro Capital Management Limited has been licensed by FTSE to use ICB. FTSE is a trade mark of London Stock Exchange and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE under license. FTSE and its licensors do not accept any liability to any person for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in ICB. Citywire s Fund Manager Ratings identify the individual managers who have the best risk-adjusted personal performance track records over three years and highlights the funds they are currently managing. The Citywire Manager Ratings are based on what is referred to as the Citywire Manager Ratio (equivalent of the Information Ratio). This takes into account career moves, career breaks and switches in funds managed. The figure reflects how much 'added value' in terms of outperformance against the benchmark the fund manager delivers for each unit of risk assumed (where risk is defined as not mirroring the index's return). Source & copyright: CITYWIRE. Ben Leyland is A rated by Citywire for his three year risk-adjusted performance for the period 31 August 2014 to 31 August