THE CERULLI REPORT. Asset Management in Southeast Asia Gaining Breadth and Depth LOOK INSIDE TO PURCHASE. Overview. Subscription Information

Transcription

1 THE CERULLI REPORT Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013 Gaining Breadth and Depth Overview This annual report examines the growing Southeast Asian asset management industry including, marketsizing and projections, product development, distribution strategies, competitive landscape, regulatory developments, and investor behavior. Wealth in this region is growing rapidly and coupled with increasingly greying demographics, spillover into the asset management space appears imminent. Regulatory changes may make opportunities more prevalent. This report provides the insight necessary to build on existing strategies or develop new ones. This year s report also includes three key region-wide themes: retail opportunities arising from a greying population, external product threats, and strategies for competing in the mutual fund landscape. Data is from proprietary surveys conducted with asset managers in markets such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Interviews with 60 firms doing business in this region provide qualitative perspective. Countries covered: Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore (covered in regional chapter). Benefits Comprehensive distribution analysis Proprietary forecasts for assets under management Identification of best point of entry in each market Unique fee analysis Questions Answered This report answers these and other critical questions: 1. What is the outlook for private retirement schemes in the region? 2. Is the Southeast Asian asset management marketplace moving towards open architecture? 3. What is the outlook for market size and growth? 4. How can foreign managers penetrate these markets given the highly captive distribution? 5. How likely are local managers to work with external managers in the coming months? 6. How are regulatory changes opening up opportunities? 7. Which markets are the fastest growing and present the best opportunities for global managers? The Cerulli Report 13 THE CERULLI REPORT TO PURCHASE CALL info@cerulli.com VISIT HAVE US CONTACT YOU: Subscription Information $15,000 ANNUAL Hardcopy Softcopy in color Unlimited online firm-wide access Exhibits in Excel format Key Findings in PDF Online access to 8 related reports Analyst support LOOK INSIDE 13 pages of report content attached 164 pages, 103 exhibits Research Included with Subscription A subscription to this report remains active through 6/26/2014 and includes online access to the following related Cerulli research: Six years of Cerulli Quantitative Update: Asset Management in Southeast Asia Shariah Investing: Market Sizing & Analysis 2008 Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2007

2 Expanded Table of Contents Table of Contents - Expanded Key Questions Answered...13 What is the outlook for private retirement schemes in the region, and what retail opportunities might potentially arise?...13 What are the potential threats existing externally on the products front, and what opportunities are present against that backdrop?...15 What strategies are managers adopting to maintain their competitive edge within the retail asset management space?...17 Executive Summary...19 Exchange Rates...25 Chapter 1: Retirement Markets in Southeast Asia...26 Exhibit Pension Coverage Rates of Selected Countries in Asia, Exhibit Snapshot of Private Retirement-Related Products in Southeast Asia...28 Exhibit Thai Retirement Mutual Funds and Long-Term Equity Funds, Chapter 2: Competing Products...32 Exhibit Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Real Estate Returns for Selected Southeast Asian Countries, Exhibit Malaysian Wholesale Funds Assets Under Management, Chapter 3: Strategy...38 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Their Plans to Work with External Managers for New Funds, Exhibit Largest Feeder Funds in Southeast Asia by Assets Under Management, Exhibit Top and Bottom 10 Recently Launched Funds in Southeast Asia by Net New Flows, Chapter 4: Regional...45 Market Sizing Exhibit Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Country, Exhibit Southeast Asian Household Financial Assets and Mutual Fund Penetration Rate, Product Exhibit Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Net New Inflows, Exhibit Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Products Ability to Raise Assets in Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Their Plans to Work with External Managers for New Funds, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Feeder Funds Product Plan, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Which Product Poses the Greatest Threat to Their Products Ability to Raise Assets, Players Exhibit Largest 20 Mutual Fund Managers in Southeast Asia ex-singapore, Distribution Exhibit Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Distribution Channel, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on the Importance of Distribution Channels to Their Assets Under Management and Profitability, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How They Are Changing Their Relationship with Existing Distributors, The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

3 Table of Contents Expanded Projections and Outlook Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Changes to Their Firm s Cost Structure, E...58 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How the ASEAN Funds Passport will Influence Fund Raising in Exhibit Projected Southeast Asian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Country, E...60 Chapter 5: Malaysia...61 Market Sizing Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund (ex-bumiputra) Assets Under Management, Product Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Net New Inflows, Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Geographical Focus, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Structure, Exhibit Funds of Funds in Malaysia by Assets Under Management, Exhibit Largest 10 Feeder Funds in Malaysia, 2012 (Part 1)...70 Exhibit Largest 10 Feeder Funds in Malaysia, 2012 (Part 2)...71 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Their Plans to Work with External Managers for New Funds in Exhibit Malaysian Islamic Assets by Fund Type, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on the Percentage of Firm s Assets Under Management Being Islamic in 2012 and in 2015E, Exhibit Malaysian Wholesale Fund Assets Under Management, Exhibit List of Wholesale Funds in Malaysia, 2012 (Part 1)...76 Exhibit List of Wholesale Funds in Malaysia, 2012 (Part 2)...77 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Products Ability to Raise Assets in Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Which Product Poses the Greatest Threat to Their Products Ability to Raise Assets, Exhibit Malaysia Fee Analysis, Players Exhibit Largest 10 Mutual Fund Managers in Malaysia, Exhibit Largest 10 Managers of Malaysia-Domiciled Islamic Funds, Distribution Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Distribution Channel, (Part 1)...83 Exhibit Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Distribution Channel, (Part 2)...84 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on the Importance of Distribution Channels to Their Assets Under Management and Profitability, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How They Are Changing Their Relationship with Existing Distributors, Projections and Outlook Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Changes to Their Firm s Cost Structure, E...87 Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How the ASEAN Funds Passport Will Influence Fund Raising in Exhibit Projected Malaysian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, E...89 Chapter 6: Thailand...90 Market Sizing Exhibit Thai Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, Exhibit Thai Private Fund Assets Under Management, Exhibit Thai Provident Fund Assets Under Management, C A 8 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013

4 Expanded Table of Contents Product Exhibit Thai Mutual Fund Net New Inflows by Investment Objective, 1H 2010E 2H 2012E...95 Exhibit Thai Mutual Fund Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Number of Foreign Investment Funds by Structure, Exhibit Retirement Mutual Funds and Long-Term Equity Funds, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Products Ability to Raise Assets in Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Private Fund Assets by Geographical Focus, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Their Plans to Work with External Managers for New Funds, Exhibit Thai Mutual Fund Fees, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Which Product Poses the Greatest Threat to Their Products Ability to Raise Assets, Players Exhibit Largest 10 Fund Managers in Thailand, (Part 1) Exhibit Largest 10 Fund Managers in Thailand, (Part 2) Exhibit Thai Overseas Fund Assets Under Management by Fund Manager, (Part 1) Exhibit Thai Overseas Fund Assets Under Management by Fund Manager, (Part 2) Distribution Exhibit Thai Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Distribution Channel, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on the Importance of Distribution Channels to Their Assets Under Management and Profitability, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How They Are Changing Their Relationship with Existing Distributors, Projections and Outlook Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Changes to Firms Cost Structure, E Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How the ASEAN Funds Passport will Influence Fund Raising in Exhibit Projected Thai Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, E Chapter 7: Indonesia Market Sizing Exhibit Indonesian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, Exhibit Shariah Fund Assets Under Management, Product Exhibit Indonesian Mutual Fund Net New Inflows, Exhibit Indonesian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Investment Objective, Exhibit Indonesian Shariah Funds by Investment Objective, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Products Ability to Raise Assets in Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Which Product Poses the Greatest Threat to Their Products Ability to Raise Assets, Exhibit Indonesian Mutual Fund Fees, Players Exhibit Largest 10 Mutual Fund Managers in Indonesia, Exhibit Foreign-Owned Indonesian Fund Manager Assets Under Management, (Part 1) Exhibit Foreign-Owned Indonesian Fund Manager Assets Under Management, (Part 2) Distribution Exhibit Indonesian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management by Distribution Channel, Exhibit Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on How They Are Changing Their Relationship with Existing Distributors in Exhibit Total Commercial Banking Assets and Third-Party Deposits in Indonesia, Exhibit Total Islamic Commercial Banking Assets in Indonesia, Exhibit Indonesian Unit-Linked Insurance Investment Assets, Projections and Outlook Exhibit Projected Indonesian Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, E The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

5 Table of Contents Expanded Chapter 8: The Philippines Market Sizing Exhibit Snapshot of Regulatory Changes in Philippine Asset Management Industry, March 2013 (Part 1) Exhibit Snapshot of Regulatory Changes in Philippine Asset Management Industry, March 2013 (Part 2) Exhibit Philippine UITF and Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, Product Exhibit Philippine Mutual Fund Net New Inflows by Investment Objective, Exhibit Philippine Mutual Fund Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Philippine UITF Assets Under Management Marketshare by Investment Objective, Exhibit Philippine Investment Fund Fees, Exhibit Philippine Special Deposit Accounts Asset Size, Players Exhibit Top 10 Philippine Mutual Fund and UITF Managers by Assets Under Management, (Part 1) Exhibit Top 10 Philippine Mutual Fund and UITF Managers by Assets Under Management, (Part 2) Distribution Exhibit Largest 10 Banks in the Philippines by Trust Accounts and Deposits, Exhibit Largest 5 Philippine Life Insurance Companies by Variable Universal Life Insurance Products Total Premium Income, Projections and Outlook Exhibit Projected Philippine UITF and Mutual Fund Assets Under Management, E Chapter 9: Vietnam Market Sizing Exhibit Closed-End Public Fund Assets Under Management, Product Exhibit Closed-End Public Fund Performance, Exhibit Open-End Funds in Vietnam, March Exhibit List of Member Funds in Vietnam, Players Exhibit List of Fund Management Companies in Vietnam, 2012 (Part 1) Exhibit List of Fund Management Companies in Vietnam, 2012 (Part 2) Distribution Exhibit Number of Banks in Vietnam, Exhibit List of Securities Companies in Vietnam, 2012 (Part 1) Exhibit List of Securities Companies in Vietnam, 2012 (Part 2) Exhibit List of Securities Companies in Vietnam, 2012 (Part 3) Appendix List of Public Funds in Vietnam, Glossary Company Index C A 10 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013

6 Methodology Methodology The Cerulli Report: Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013 is an analysis of asset management trends in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Singapore data has been included in the regional chapter for purposes of comparison and completeness. An extension of the firm s research coverage in Asia, this report forms an important part of our ongoing coverage of the world s developed and developing asset management marketplaces. Cerulli believes that Southeast Asian countries will continue to widen their influence within Asia, a region which in the long run will probably represent the largest mutual fund marketplace in the world outside of the United States. Report Focus The following pages focus on several key areas in Southeast Asia s asset management industry: market sizing, product development, distribution strategies, competitive analysis, projections, key regulatory developments, and investor behavior. This year s report also includes an in-depth discussion of three key region-wide themes: retail opportunities arising from a greying population, analysis of external product threats, and strategy for competing in the mutual fund landscape. Proprietary Research While anecdotal information on the Southeast Asian markets abounds, the quality and reliability of information remains sketchy. Our firm, however, strives to sort through the anecdotes and disparate statistics, and begin assembling more actionable data in two forms: Granular quantitative information designed to help clients determine the size of publicly available investment assets, thereby providing a better picture of the current and potential opportunities in the various customer and product segments. Consultative qualitative information designed to help clients understand how to tap these opportunities via an informed assessment of the latest product, distribution, and regulatory trends. Central to achieving the goal of providing useful quantitative information are our proprietary surveys of asset managers in the region. This is a bottom-up survey to understand the relationship between asset management firms and their clients. Cerulli is pleased to say that close to 60 highly focused and in-depth research meetings and conference calls were conducted with asset managers, distributors, fund associations, and regulators in the region. In addition, Cerulli surveyed asset managers in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Cerulli believes that the data herein is reliable and has made every reasonable effort to verify statistics presented. However, Cerulli does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Key data in this report is calculated and presented in U.S. dollars to allow for comparative analysis. Exchange rates from year-end 2012 have been used. Cerulli benefited from the cooperation of a number of regulators and trade industry associations in the region, and is especially grateful for assistance from the following: Securities Commission, Kuala Lumpur Federation of Investment Managers Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

7 Methodology Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, Jakarta Association of Indonesian Mutual Fund Managers, Jakarta Bank Indonesia, Jakarta Securities and Exchange Commission, Bangkok Bank of Thailand, Bangkok Association of Investment Management Companies, Bangkok Trust Officers Association of the Philippines, Manila Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Manila Philippine Investment Funds Association, Manila State Securities Commission, Hanoi The State Bank of Vietnam, Hanoi C A 12 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013

8 Sample Section From: The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013: Gaining Breadth and Depth

9 Thailand Chapter 6 EXHIBIT Number of Foreign Investment Funds by Structure, Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, Cerulli Associates Analyst Note: Only includes funds with a policy to invest more than 80% of their NAV overseas, either as an average in an accounting year or at a particular point in time Through direct investment Through feeders Through funds of funds A larger number of FIFs chose the feeder fund structure for their overseas investments in Their numbers increased by 68.8% last year and it was the only fund structure to experience significant gains. Funds of funds (FoFs) remain the least popular fund structure for overseas investments. Among FoFs launched in 2012, two were invested in real estate. They are CIMB-Principal s Property Income fund and MFC s International Real Estate 7 MT fund. Key Implication: The number of FIFs directly investing remained about the same in 2012 as in 2011, but their investment regions have become more varied. The current batch of FIFs invests in Brazilian and Chinese debt, as well as Indonesian and South African bank deposits. All FIFs in Thailand hedge their currency back into the Thai baht, even though this is not required by law. Cerulli s conversations with FIFs reveal that this has been market practice and it also helps to simplify explanations when the products are pitched to clients. The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

10 Chapter 7 Indonesia EXHIBIT Cerulli Survey Respondents Views on Products Ability to Raise Assets in 2013 Source: Cerulli Associates (5=Greatest ability, 1=Least ability) Local equity/balanced funds Equity funds with overseas exposure Discretionary/Private placement funds Capital-protected funds Regular savings products (Installment funds) Islamic funds Local fixed-income funds RDPT funds Property funds/reits ETFs (or funds feeding into ETFs) Fixed-income funds with overseas exposure Equity funds have been rated as having the highest ability to raise assets this year, on the back of continued optimism over the domestic equity market. Discretionary funds follow right behind equity funds. This reflects managers continued commitment to manage institutional assets, often seen as an avenue for brand building and asset growth before managers try their hand in the retail segment. RSP products, which Cerulli added to the survey for the first time, received relatively strong ratings as well. In a bid to attract small-ticket investors, several fund houses have indicated plans to launch more RSP products to enhance the stickiness of flows. In a bid to provide more value-added services, Panin Asset Management in October last year launched a mutual fund with an RSP structure bundled with an insurance product providing coverage for accidents and dismemberment. As these do not constitute major coverage, the premiums are usually manageable, and are absorbed by Panin with little impact on margins. The value proposition of this fund is that, unlike investment-linked products, all of investors money goes directly into the fund as no commissions are paid. Also, since it is a mutual fund, prices are published daily and there is more transparency. RDPT funds, which operate like private equity funds but are mainly utilized for infrastructure projects, are not rated highly by managers for potential in 2013, due to a limited number of projects available for financing. Also, longer-term projects usually prefer to go to banks for financing as they can get funds in tranches corresponding to project milestones. In contrast, acquiring funding through the RDPT structure requires all the financing for a project from the offset, creating unnecessary interest costs. Key Implication: Product trends will continue to show a strong home bias due to the 15% cap on overseas investment. Amid limited opportunities for product differentiation, RSP-related products have been gaining some traction among managers as they bid to target blue-collar workers the latter can purchase such products for as little as IDR100,000 a month. However, these products require careful product structuring. For Panin s RSP product, scenarios like investors not following through on payments have been taken into account, and a grace period of three months has been implemented before the embedded insurance lapses. While the size of RSP products is relatively small, with some managers attracting only around IDR8 billion to IDR9 billion a month, Cerulli believes these products certainly have potential. But they will require time and investment into education and distribution to gain wider traction. C A 120 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013

11 Company Index Aberdeen Asset Management (Thai)...98 Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management...62, 81, 82 ACB Group...24, 149 Affin Holdings...61 AIA...62 Alliance Investment Management...15, 35, 61 Amanah Mutual...30 Amanah Saham Nasional...63, 79 AmBank Group...61 AmInvestment Services...39, 61, 62, 71, 77, 81 AMMB Holdings...61 Amundi...81 ANZ...34, 128 Ashmore Group AXA-Mandiri...22, 130 Bahana TCW Investment Management Banco de Oro Universal Bank...39, 54, 132, 143 Bangkok Bank Bank Rakyat Indonesia Bao Viet Batavia Prosperindo Aset Manajemen BBL Asset Management...39, 94, 98, 105 BPI Asset Management...39, 54, 132, 143 BRI Syariah CIMB-Principal Asset Management...30, 36, 39, 40, 54, 62, 78, 82, 85, 97 Citibank Commonwealth Bank Credit Agricole...81 Danareksa Investment Management Datamonitor...36, 37 Eastspring Investments...81, 114, 125 ECM Libra Investment Bank...61, 84 First Metro First State Investment Franklin Templeton...37, 77 Generali Group Grepalife Financial The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

12 Company Index HSBC...34, 128, 147 Hwang Investment Management...37, 39, 62, 65, 81, 82 Hwang-DBS...61 Indo-Premier Investment Management ING Funds...31, 61, 70, 84, 90, 105 Japan Securities KAF Fund Management...15, 35, 61 Kasikorn Asset Management...39, 96, 99, 105, 107 Kenanga Holdings...61 Kenanga Investment Bank...61 Kenanga Investors...31, 61, 84 Kiatnakin Bank Knight Frank Research...78 Krung Thai Asset Management...21, 30, 39, 95, 103 Krung Thai Bank Krungsri Asset Management...98, 105 Kumpulan Sentiasa Cemerlang...77 Kuwait Finance House...17, 43, 83 Lion Global Investors...61, 81 Mandiri Manajemen Investasi...22, 130 Manulife Asset Management (Malaysia)...61, 62 Manulife Asset Manajemen (Indonesia)...17, 43, 44, 123 Maybank Asset Management...61, 77, 78 MB Capital...147, 150, 154 MB Securities MFC Asset Management...39, 94, 97 Military Bank Mirae Asset Global Investment Nikko Securities NISP Asset Management Nomura...81 OCBC Bank One Asset Management Opus Asset Management...77 OSK Holdings...61 OSK-UOB Asset Management...39, 42, 43, 44, 70 Pacific Mutual...61, 81 C A 162 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013

13 Company Index Panin Asset Management...39, 120, 123 Permodalan Nasional...63 Phatra Securities Phil AXA Philam Asset Management...39 Philam Life Philequity Phillip Asset Management (Thai)...98 Phillip Securities Indonesia Pru Life Prudential...53 PT Ashmore Asset Management PT Buana Megah Abadi Public Bank...38 Public Mutual...38, 39, 62, 65, 81, 82, 83 RHB Capital...61 RHB Investment Bank...61 RHB Investment Management...30, 62, 82 RHB OSK Asset Management Saigon Securities...147, 151 SCB Asset Management...39, 96, 107 Schroder Investment Management...54, 125, 126 Scorpio Partnership...33, 35 Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) SSI Securities Standard Chartered Bank...33, 35, 128 Sumitomo Life Sun Life Financial Philippines...23, 39, 132, 136, 137, 143, 145 Thanachart Fund Management...40 The Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company...90 Tisco Asset Management...40 Towers Watson...34 Trimegah Asset Management...15, 35, 36, 123 United Overseas Bank UOB Asset Management (Thai)...90, 105, 108 Viet Long Securities Investment Fund Management...147, 151 VietFund Management...24, 149 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia C A

14 Company Index VietinBank Vietinbank Fund Management Vietnam Airlines Vietnam Asset Management Company...147, 154 Vietnam Investment Fund Company Viglacera Vinatex VinaWealth...147, 150 Yuchengco Group C A 164 The Cerulli Report Asset Management in Southeast Asia 2013