10X INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT GUIDE WHY SETTLE FOR LESS?

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Geoffrey Carroll
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10X INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT GUIDE WHY SETTLE FOR LESS? 086 1109 109 info@10x.co.

1 10X INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT GUIDE WHY SETTLE FOR LESS? X INVESTMENT GUIDE 10X Investments follows a proven approach to investing your retirement savings that is in line with international best practice. Your retirement savings are invested in a diverse collection of investments called a portfolio. In this portfolio, you own wellestablished South African companies (listed on the JSE), major global companies listed overseas and property. Your savings are also invested in interest earning investments such as bonds and cash. 10X wants you to have more money at retirement and has therefore designed an optimal investment solution without complex choices. The features of this solution are: 1. Diversification 2. Time-driven Investing 3. Low Fees 4. Index Funds 5. Full Transparency In this Investment Guide, we will unpack what each of these 5 principles mean for you as the investor. DIVERSIFICATION Your savings are invested in: Well-established companies (called shares) Property Interest earning investments called bonds Cash These investments include both local and foreign investments. At least 75% of your savings are held in South African investments and the remainder in foreign investments. 10X invests your retirement savings in a wide variety of investments so that we don t put all your eggs in one basket. This is known as diversification and it helps to reduce the risk of owning a large quantity of an investment that does poorly. In fact, your savings are spread across more than 1000 different investments. Diversification helps to protect you when markets crash, such as in the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis. These benefits are shown in the RETURN FLUCTUATIONS section. Your portfolio is diversified across the four main investments above and within each of these main investments. This speaks to the two key decisions in constructing an investment portfolio: 1. The Weightings of the main investments (companies, property, bonds and cash), are discussed under TIME- DRIVEN INVESTING. 2. The Investment style is the method used to select the investments within each of the main investments (companies, property, bonds and cash). There are two basic investment styles, which are discussed under INDEX FUNDS. Below, we explain 10X s single investment strategy and why it is likely to deliver higher long-term returns than the traditional industry model, which offers many different investment strategies with vastly different long-term returns. Many investors mistakenly focus only on the investment style, when in fact the investment weighting should be your primary decision. The investment style is a secondary and less important decision. 1.

TIME-DRIVEN INVESTING In this section, we will discuss the weightings of the four main investments (companies, property, bonds and cash). Each of these investments have advantages and disadvantages.

2 TIME-DRIVEN INVESTING In this section, we will discuss the weightings of the four main investments (companies, property, bonds and cash). Each of these investments have advantages and disadvantages. EXPECTED LONG-TERM RETURNS FLUCTUATIONS IN RETURNS Companies and property (called growth investments) High High Bonds and cash (called defensive investments) Low Low Companies and property are known as growth investments because they are likely to generate the highest returns over the long-term. However, the return over short periods is unpredictable and can even be negative. This is the opposite of bonds and cash, which tend to generate lower returns over long periods but may produce more stable short-term returns. There is a trade-off between expected high long-term returns and fluctuations in short-term returns. Therefore, to determine which investments are best for you, we look at your time horizon, i.e. when you expect to retire or access your retirement savings. If you do not expect to do so for some time, you can live with return fluctuations as you have sufficient time to recover. In this case, you are able to own predominantly growth investments. However, if you expect to access your savings in the near future, you cannot afford large fluctuations in your returns. Therefore, the proportion in growth investments (companies and properties) declines as you move closer to your expected retirement date. 10X automatically invests your retirement savings according to your expected retirement date. This ensures you always own an appropriate investment portfolio throughout your working life. Investment portfolios that are based on your expected retirement date are called life-stage portfolios. 10X manages six life-stage portfolios, which range from the 10X High Equity (invested mainly in companies and property) to the 10X Defensive portfolio (invested mainly in cash). If you are more than five years from retirement, you own the 10X High Equity, which is expected to generate the highest long-term return. This portfolio comprises predominantly growth investments (companies and property). Over the last five years to your retirement, the focus gradually shifts to preserving your savings, and your portfolio will steadily decrease your allocation to growth investments and increase your allocation to defensive investments (bonds and cash). This process is called the 10X default glide path. The diagram below illustrates the 10X default glide path and contains the time horizon for each portfolio, its expected longterm return and the expected short-term return fluctuations. You will notice that all the returns in the chart below are after stripping out inflation. Inflation is critical because at current rates of inflation (of approximately 6%), your money in twelve years will be worth half of what it is today. For this reason, and our portfolios target an after inflation return. The returns below give you an idea of the returns the 10X portfolios could earn over long periods. However, in the short-term the portfolios are likely to deviate from this significantly. Expected Long-term Return After Inflation 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% High Short-term Return Fluctuations Low 10X High Equity 10X 60% Equity 10X Medium Equity > 5 yrs ± 5 yrs ± 4 yrs ± 3 yrs ± 2 yrs ± 1 yrs Investment Time Horizon 10X 40% Equity 10X Low Equity Source: Dimson, Staunton, Marsh and 10X Investments (returns from 1900 to 2013) 10X Defensive 2.

3 PORTFOLIO APPROXIMATE % IN GROWTH INVESTMENTS APPROXIMATE % IN DEFENSIVE INVESTMENTS COMPANIES PROPERTY BONDS AND CASH 10X High Equity 72% 5% 23% 10X 60% Equity 60% 8% 32% 10X Medium Equity 50% 10% 40% 10X 40% Equity 38% 8% 54% 10X Low Equity 25% 6% 69% 10X Defensive 7% 5% 88% RETURN FLUCTUATIONS Here is an example to demonstrate the extent of short-term fluctuations in 10X s life-stage portfolios. Assume you had invested R100 in the 10X Low Equity, Medium Equity and High Equity on 1 January Six years later, the investment in the 10X High Equity has the highest value at R211. However, along the way it also had the most fluctuations, as you can see in the chart below. This is what you would expect from a portfolio designed for the long-term. In contrast, the 10X Low Equity had the smoothest path but also ended with the lowest value at R182. Growth of R100 Since Inception (1 January 2008) R 211 R 203 R 182 R 100 R 101 R 89 R /9 Global financial crisis: a 1 in 25 year event Dec-2007 Dec-2008 Dec-2009 Dec-2010 Dec-2011 Dec-2012 Dec X Low Equity 10X Medium Equity 10X High Equity The chart also illustrates that your fund can decrease in value. During the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis, the returns were negative. However, within a year each of the 10X portfolios had recovered what it had lost. This crisis is a rare event as returns worse than this have only occurred four times in more than 100 years. In other words, this has been a one in 25- year event. We are not making a forecast about future crises as no one can reliably predict these events. Instead, we are highlighting that these events are not expected to occur very often but even when they do occur you should still stick to a time-driven investment strategy. The 10X High Equity reported the biggest loss during the crisis. Its value dropped from over R100 to R83. Although this may seem like a large decline, owning a wide range of different investments (a diversified portfolio) actually protected you. This is evident by considering that R100 invested only in South African companies would have dropped to R66, which is double the amount that was lost in the 10X High Equity. OPTING OUT OF THE 10X DEFAULT GLIDE PATH At retirement you have a number of choices in terms of the products you may purchase with your retirement savings. These include cashing in your investment (fully or partly), buying a guaranteed annuity or transferring to a living annuity. This is relevant as it determines whether your money will remain invested at retirement. If your savings are going to remain invested at retirement (i.e. you select a living annuity), then you have a longer time horizon so you have time to ride out the short-term fluctuations of the market. In this case, you may prefer to remain invested in the 10X High Equity and not follow the glide path. Hence your choice of retirement product influences how your retirement savings should be invested as you approach retirement. 10X has made provision for this by giving you the option to opt out of the default glide path. If you don t make an 3.

election you will be invested in the default glide path described above. Otherwise, you may elect to opt out of your default glide path and invest in the 10X High Equity, Medium Equity or Low Equity.

4 election you will be invested in the default glide path described above. Otherwise, you may elect to opt out of your default glide path and invest in the 10X High Equity, Medium Equity or Low Equity. This option can potentially harm your retirement outcome if not used responsibly. It is intended to be a once-off decision based on the retirement product you plan to purchase at retirement. You should not exercise this option based on your emotions of fear or greed. A large, well-known South African investment company found that investors in their Balanced earned 4% less every year than the over a period of ten years. How can this be? This is because people invested after markets had run (greed) and sold after markets had fallen (fear). They bought when it was expensive and sold when it was cheap, which is a proven path to wealth destruction. LOW FEES Costs can make the difference between success and failure. Over a working life (40 years), every 1% in fees you save can give you up to 30% more retirement income. The chart below illustrates this for someone who invests R1000 each month for 40 years and earns a return of inflation plus 5% pa. In a perfect world, with no fees, your R1000 each month would grow to R1.5m in today s money. Value in Today's Money of R1,000 pm for 40 Years at 5% plus Inflation pa R1,500,000 R1,150,000 R900,000 R700,000 0% 1% 2% 3% Fees as % of investment balance pa Over a working life, you could increase your final investment value by up to 60% by moving from paying a fee of 3% pa, which is not uncommon in the industry, to 10X s maximum investment fee of 1% pa. This is illustrated in the chart above. Your final investment value increases from R0.7m (at a 3% fee) to R1,15m (at a 1% fee). 10X Investments wants you to have more money at retirement, so we charge you a low fee and clearly display the total fees paid on your statement. There are no complex fee structures or hidden charges. Fees matter a lot and unless investors pay more attention to the fees they pay, they must prepare themselves for far less money in retirement. Costs are the most important indicator of future returns. Low cost funds beat high cost funds in every period measured. Morningstar research INDEX FUNDS In TIME-DRIVEN INVESTING we discussed the weighting of the four main investments (companies, property, bonds and cash). Here we will discuss how the investments within each of these are selected. As an investor, you have two choices of investment styles. You can either select an investment manager who will: 1. Try to beat the market return and risk doing worse than the market; or 2. Guarantee the market return by investing in all investments in the proportion to their value. The market return is the return earned on average in that group of investments (called the index). The first style, called active investing, is risky and comes with higher fees. Although we all know whom the winning investment managers are after they have beaten the market, can you or your adviser identify the winners ahead of time? 4.

Nobel laureate winner, Eugene Fama answers this question: Research shows that it is impossible to pick people who can beat the market. There is no reliable way to identify the winners ahead of time.

5 Nobel laureate winner, Eugene Fama answers this question: Research shows that it is impossible to pick people who can beat the market. There is no reliable way to identify the winners ahead of time. Before fees, your odds of beating the market are one in two, because for every winner there must also be a loser. For example, if you bought company A and they did better than the average then the person who sold it to you must have done worse. However, playing this game is expensive, as you need a large team to do research in an attempt to determine which investments will do better than the market and which will do worse. After fees, your odds of beating the market return in South Africa are two in ten (Source: Profile Data, general equity unit trusts vs JSE All Share Index). This means eight out of ten do worse than the market return! Source: General Equity unit trusts vs. JSE All Share Index. Profile Data and 10X Investments, five years to March At 10X Investments, we do not believe in taking these risks with your retirement money. Therefore, we follow the second investment style so that you earn the market return at a low cost. In other words, we invest your money in proportion to the investments that compromise the market. This is called an index fund. The example above refers to South African companies only, but the same concept applies to each investment market in which we invest your retirement savings. There is a lot of debate around active and index investing. It is important to remember the facts above, rather than to be influenced by someone s opinions, which are often influenced by their own business interest rather than your long-term investment interest. Although this is an important decision, remember that the investment weighting, discussed earlier under TIME-DRIVEN INVESTING, is by far the most important decision. REPORTING AND STATEMENTS 10X Investments provides you with a personalised investment report (also called a benefit statement) that is updated weekly. However, we do not advise monitoring your investment weekly as your returns are likely to fluctuate in the shortterm and this tends to take your focus off the long-term. You can view your personalised investment report on the 10X website ( after logging in with your username and password. If you do not have a username or password or have forgotten your login details please benefitadmin@10x.co.za or call X s reporting is completely transparent so you can see all the information about your investments that we can see. Your investment report discloses the returns on your savings before fees, the total fees paid, the return after fees and details about your investment portfolio. We disclose fees because they have a significant impact on your retirement savings, as discussed above. The majority of providers in South Africa only disclose your return after fees so you have no way of knowing the total fees charged, and how this will affect your retirement savings. You can also access your retirement investment values and personal information on the 10X Investments Application available on Android and Apple. Please visit the relevant app store, search for 10X Investments and download the application. To access your account, please use the same username and password that you would use to log into the 10X Investments web portal discussed above. Furthermore, we publish a monthly investment report on the 10X website ( showing the returns on all 10X portfolios. This report gives you more information about the portfolio in which your money is invested. The returns on this report will differ to your personalised investment report because your personalised report is affected by the amounts and timing of your contributions. 5.

10X INVESTMENT GUIDE WHY SETTLE FOR LESS? INVESTMENTS

10X INVESTMENT GUIDE WHY SETTLE FOR LESS? INVESTMENTS THIS IS NOT A REHEARSAL. It is said that behaviour is truth. And the truth about 10X is rooted in its one, simple, optimal retirement solution. A simple