Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks June 21, 2018
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- Emerald Collins
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1 8% Cash in Uncertain Times CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 20-Jun Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda NTM Ratio 2018 (US$mm) ($mm) Cap NTM NTM (%) (%) (EV/PV) Permian Basin RT PBT Sabine Royalty Trust SBR Dorchester Minerals, L.P. DMLP San Juan Basin Royalty Trust SJT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust CRT Total or Median 2,100 2, Summary and Recommendation Oil and Gas Income stocks offering an estimated median 8% cash distribution yield and trading at a median McDep Ratio of 0.8 look like attractive investments in uncertain times. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) scores the highest cash return at 10.5% and lowest McDep Ratio of Declared on June 19, the latest monthly distribution of $0.12 a unit supports our estimate of $1.51 for the next twelve months (NTM). Both measures appear strong enough to offset concern about regional natural gas price uncertainty in the face of rising oil production with associated natural gas in the Permian Basin. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) declared a June distribution of $0.00, which prompts our reducing the estimated NTM distribution to $0.51 a unit from $0.57. The new working interest owner as of a year ago and an inexperienced trust officer are struggling to explain accounting challenges. We believe our estimated NTM distribution is reasonable though the volume and price definitions may be refined after audit. Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) performs well with a $0.29 monthly distribution declared on June 5 in support of firm operating trends and highest distribution per equivalent barrel (see charts on page 2 and 3). Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) will likely declare an extra strong quarterly distribution around July 19 that will include a one-time gain from a lease transaction. We are optimistic about global economic growth despite the daily news flow that raises one concern or another. Updated quarterly models for each of the five stocks in our Income Group illustrate the likely outcome from the interrelationship of important variables (see tables Operating and Financial Estimates on pages 4 to 8). We believe that stocks like the five in our Income Group can reduce risk and enhance return of a diversified investment portfolio. Kurt H. Wulff, CFA Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 1
2 Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 2
3 Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 3
4 Cross Timbers Royalty Trust Months Operating and Financial Performance Natural Gas (bcf) Natural Gas (mmcfd) Days Oil (mb) Oil (mbd) Days Total (bcf) Price Natural Gas (HH lagged three months) Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) Differential (%) (30) (33) (57) (44) (33) (33) (42) (33) (20) (30) CRT ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) (WTI lagged two months) WTI Cushing CRT Total ($/mcf) Natural Gas Oil Total Cost ($mm) Tax, transport & other Production Total Cash flow ($mm) Development Excess or other Recovery of excess Net proceeds ($mm) Royalty income ($mm) Royalty/Net proceeds 91% 90% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% Administration & reserve Distributable income ($mm) Units (millions) Royalty income ($/unit) Natural Gas TL TX TL OK TL NM BL TX BL OK - (0.00) - Oil - - TL TX TL OK TL NM BL TX BL OK Administration Reserve and other (0.00) (0.00) - Distribution ($/unit) Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 4
5 Dorchester Minerals, L.P. Operating and Financial Performance TOP LINE Natural Gas (mmcfd) Oil (mbd) Price Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) WTI Cushing ($/bbl) Natural Gas ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) Natural Gas Oil Total Revenue Expense (allocated) Ebitda BOTTOM LINE Natural Gas (mmcfd) Oil (mbd) Price Natural Gas ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) Natural Gas Oil Total Revenue Expense (allocated) Partnership Net Profits Interests Total Expense Ebitda Development (estimated) NET INCOME Top Line Bottom Line Lease Bonus and residual (1.4) (5.9) (1.0) Deprec., Deplet., & Amort Total Net Income Units (mm) Net Income Per Unit ($) DISTRIBUTION Top Line Revenue Bottom Line Net Revenue Lease Bonus and Other Cash Expense (2.2) (8.1) (2.2) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (8.5) (2.1) (2.1) (8.4) Distribution Distribution Per Unit ($) Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 5
6 Permian Basin Royalty Trust Months Operating and Financial Estimates TOP LINE Natural Gas (mmcfd) Oil (mbd) Price (cash lagged two months) Natural Gas ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) Natural Gas Oil Total Revenue Expense Operating - - Production & Property taxes Total Expense Ebitda Ebitda times 95% BOTTOM LINE Natural Gas (mmcfd) Oil (mbd) Price (cash lagged two months) Natural Gas ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) Natural Gas Oil Total Revenue Expense Operating Production taxes Total Expense Ebitda Development (Ebitda-Dvlpmnt) times 75% Excess Costs CASH DISTRIBUTION Royalty Income ($mm) Top Line Bottom Line Administration Distributable Income ($mm) Units (millions) Distribution ($/unit) Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 6
7 Sabine Royalty Trust Months Operating and Financial Performance Natural Gas (bcf) Natural Gas (mmcfd) Days Oil (mmb) Oil (mbd) Days Total (bcfe) Total (mmcfd) Price (Henry Hub natural gas lagged three months; WTI Cushing oil, two months) Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) Differential (%) Trust ($/mcf) WTI Cushing ($/bbl) Differential Trust ($/bbl) Total ($/bcfe) Natural Gas Oil Total Expense Tax and other General and administrative Total Ebitda Ebit Ebt Distributable Income ($mm) Units (millions) Distributable Income/Unit ($) Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 7
8 San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Months Operating and Financial Estimates Natural gas (mmbtu) Heat Content(btu/cf) 1,122 1,117 1,111 1,111 1,111 1,111 1,111 1,111 1,111 1,111 Natural gas (bcf) Natural Gas (mmcfd) Days Oil (mb) Oil (mbd) Total gas & oil (bcf) Price Natural gas ($/mmbtu) (Henry Hub lagged two months) Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) Differential (%) Net to SJT ($/mmbtu) Natural gas ($/mcf) Oil ($/bbl) (WTI Cushing lagged two months) WTI Cushing SJT Total gas & oil ($/mcf) Natural Gas Oil Total Cost ($mm) Severance tax Operating Total Cash flow ($mm) Development 0.1 (0.4) Net proceeds ($mm) Royalty income ($mm) Royalty/Net proceeds 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% Administration 0.5 (0.7) One-time (7.7) (0.6) (0.6) - Distributable income ($mm) Units (millions) Per unit Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 8
9 Disclaimer: This analysis was prepared by Kurt Wulff, Manager of McDep LLC. The firm used sources and data believed to be reliable but makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. This analysis is intended for informational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. McDep or its employees may take positions in stocks the firm covers for research purposes. a subject stock shall be made within a week before or after a change in recommendation. No trades in Certification: I, Kurt H. Wulff, certify that the views expressed in this research analysis accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research analysis. Please see disclosures on the final page. Page 9
Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday August 28, 2018
Roll Forward and Simplify CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 28-Aug Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda NTM Ratio 2018 (US$mm)
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 23, 2018
Rising Distributions CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 22-Oct Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda NTM Ratio 2018 (US$mm)
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 22, 2016
Income Payers Sparkle CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 21-Nov Market Value Natural Natural Oil Down-
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks December 20, 2017
Top Line Premium and Bottom Line Upside CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 19-Dec Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 22, 2016
Income Payer Surprises CRT, PBT, SBR, SJT, DMLP Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 21-Jan Market Value Natural Natural Oil Down-
More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 25, 2017
Cash, Fracking and Inflation CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 22-Sep Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm)
More informationIndependent Stock Idea September 22, 2015
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) Low Risk 7.5% Income Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/16 (US$mm) 10 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 50 Price (US$/sh)
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks July 10, 2009
Rounding the Bend at HGT and SJT Summary and Recommendation Market prices for natural gas imply that buy-recommended Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) and hold-rated San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) are rounding
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday March 1, 2018
EOG Resources (EOG) Raise NPV to $130 on Production Independent Stock Idea Symbol EOG Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/19 (US$mm) 8,500 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 9 Price ($/sh) 100.82 Natural
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday October 24, 2017
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) Free Cash Flow Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 9 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 48 Price (US$/sh)
More informationIndependent Stock Idea October 18, 2016
California Resources Corporation (CRC) Option on Oil Price Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/17 (US$mm) 713 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 11 Price ($/sh)
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks March 30, 2012
Independents Delivering Growth Summary and Recommendation Eight Small Cap Independent Producers in our research coverage are growing oil and gas production for the North American market at a median rate
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday August 7, 2018
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) Q2 on Trend Independent Stock Idea Symbol DMLP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/19 (US$mm) 66 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 43 Price (US$/sh) 18.45 Natural Gas and
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks March 15, 2013
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) San Juan Basin Gem Symbol CRT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 16 Rating RTF Stock North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 58 (US$/sh) 27.73 Natural Gas
More informationPenn West Energy Trust Acquisitions Expand Cash Flow in 2008
Penn West Energy Trust Acquisitions Expand Cash Flow in 2008 Symbol PWE Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/08 (US$mm) 2,620 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 33 Price (US$/un) 28.07
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks May 31, 2013
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) Beating the Bear Income and Small Cap Weekly Symbol HGT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 43 Rating RTF Stock North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 81 (US$/sh)
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday November 2, 2017
Marathon Oil (MRO) Shale Oil Value Symbol MRO Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 2,570 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 8 Price (US$/sh) 14.99 Natural Gas and Oil Production/Ebitda
More informationIndependent Stock Idea June 6, 2018
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) Bright Future in Integrated Gas Independent Stock Idea Symbol RDS-B Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/19 (US$mm) 58,200 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 24 Price (US$/sh) 71.79
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks November 2, 2012
Range Resources (RRC) Natural Gas Comeback Amplifies Volume Growth Symbol RRC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/13 (US$mm) 808 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 66 ($/sh) 65.47 Natural
More informationDorchester Minerals, L.P. Defying Decline
Natural Gas and Oil Royalty Trusts Page 1 This edition of the weekly analysis is dedicated to one stock. The regular valuation tables for eleven stocks appear after page 5. Dorchester Minerals, L.P. Defying
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks March 22, 2013
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) Drill and It Shale Set You Free Symbol SJT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 76 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 97 (US$/sh) 15.20 Natural
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday August 8, 2017
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) BP Tests Best San Juan Well in 14 Years Independent Stock Idea Symbol SJT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/18 (US$mm) 24 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks February 8, 2013
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) Low McDep Ratio Shale Oil Income and Small Cap Weekly Symbol WLL Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/13 (US$mm 1,690 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 4 Price
More informationIndependent Stock Idea Intraday September 4, 2018
Suncor Energy (SU) Oil Value Upside Symbol SU Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/19 (US$mm) 12,600 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price (US$/sh) 40.35 Natural Gas and Oil Production/Ebitda (%) 78 Pricing
More informationIndependent Stock Idea November 12, 2017
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIREF) Downward Price Pressure Lifting Independent Stock Idea Symbol BIREF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 297 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%)
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks April 21, 2011
Enerplus Corporation (ERF) Bakken and Marcellus with 7% a Year Income Symbol ERF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/12 (US$mm) 910 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 28 (US$/sh) 31.19
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks April 13, 2012
Enerplus (ERF - Contrarian Buy) Shale Oil Growth with Income Option Symbol ERF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/13 (US$mm) 880 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 14 (US$/sh)
More informationTwo Percent a Month. Natural Gas Royalty Trusts A Weekly Analysis May 22, Summary and Recommendation
Two Percent a Month Summary and Recommendation Our title looks like interest charges on a credit card, yet San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) and Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) will pay almost that much to
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More informationIndependent Stock Idea May 18, 2017 Intraday
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) Midland Basin Spotlight Symbol DMLP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/18 (US$mm) 40 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 46 Price (US$/sh) 16.50 Natural Gas
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks April 27, 2012
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More informationIndustry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks August 20, 2018
Small Independents Strategic Value, Uncertain Price BIREF, CRC, RRC, WLL Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 20-Aug Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda
More informationIncome and Small Cap Weekly Analysis of Oil & Gas Stocks May 24, 2013
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIREF - Buy) Small Cap North American Natural Gas Symbol BIREF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 195 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 57 Price (US$/sh)
More informationIndependent Stock Idea February 2, 2018
ConocoPhillips (COP) Raise NPV to $80 on Higher Cash Flow Independent Stock Idea Symbol COP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/18 (US$mm) 14,200 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 23 Price (US$/sh) 59.35
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Remove Buy on SJT at McDep Ratio of 1.10 Summary and Recommendation Symbol SJT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/12 (US$mm) 83 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 96 (US$/sh) 27.55 Natural
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Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) Clean Energy for Global Growth Meter Reader Symbol RDS-A Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/13 (US$mm) 54,400 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price (US$/sh)
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ConocoPhillips (COP Buy) Shale Oil Growth with Alaska Upside Symbol COP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/12 (US$mm) 28,100 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 5 Price (US$/sh) 76.43
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