Key market performance drivers

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1 Key market performance drivers Monthly charts June manager of managers

2 Market returns concentration June 2013 (one month) One month to June BAT 18.3% 29 RBX 4.2% 59 SAC 1.3% 87 GRF -1.7% Financial % 139 YRK -7.7% 2 KGM 17.2% 30 LHC 4.0% 60 MFL 1.1% 88 RLO -1.9% 114 ADR -4.3% 140 BTI -7.8% 3 HYP 14.5% 31 ACP 4.0% 61 ALT 0.8% 89 RBW -1.9% 115 SAP -4.3% 141 ILV -7.9% 4 CSB 13.7% 32 GRT 3.9% 62 LEW 0.8% 90 NEP -1.9% 116 SUI -4.4% 142 ITU -8.0% 5 KAP 13.5% 33 DSY 3.8% 63 MTN 0.7% 91 FSR -1.9% 117 SOL -4.7% 143 EXX -8.2% 6 TKG 11.4% 34 EQS 3.6% 64 ARL 0.7% 92 NPN -2.0% 118 LBH -4.7% 144 MSM -8.6% 7 AFP 10.4% 35 ABL 3.6% 65 SPP 0.6% 93 IVT -2.2% 119 BAW -4.9% 145 CLR -9.8% 8 ACL 10.3% 36 FFA 3.5% 66 MTA 0.6% 94 PET -2.4% SWIX Top % 146 ASR -10.2% 9 MUR 10.3% 37 CMP 3.4% 67 BEL 0.4% 95 CFR -2.4% 120 AIP -5.1% 147 AMS -10.3% 10 APN 9.4% 38 CPL 3.3% 68 EOH 0.1% 96 VOD -2.4% 121 SPG -5.1% 148 HPB -10.3% 11 IPF 7.8% 39 OCT 3.3% 69 PMM 0.1% 97 PGL -2.5% 122 DTC -5.3% 149 NHM -10.8% 12 MPC 7.2% 40 ATN 3.2% 70 FBR 0.0% 98 CCO -2.7% 123 JSE -5.5% 150 KIO -11.1% 13 RES 6.8% 41 AFE 3.2% 71 FPT 0.0% 99 MRF -2.7% 50% of total market cap 151 INL -11.1% 14 JDG 6.6% 42 VKE 3.2% 72 TRU -0.1% 100 MPT -2.9% 124 BVT -5.6% 152 WHL -11.2% 15 RDF 6.6% 43 GPL 3.2% 73 SBK -0.3% Fledgling -2.9% All Share -5.7% 153 INP -11.3% 16 SNT 6.5% 44 TCP 3.1% Mid Cap -0.4% 101 SLM -3.0% 125 NPK -5.9% 154 OML -11.5% 17 EMI 6.5% 45 PGR 3.1% 74 IPL -0.5% Industrial % 126 AQP -6.0% 155 IMP -12.3% 18 OMN 6.4% 46 ADH 2.9% 75 CIL -0.5% 102 HSP -3.3% 127 REI -6.1% 156 DRD -13.3% 19 TMG 5.6% 47 RMI 2.9% 76 ASA -0.6% 103 TBS -3.4% 128 SAB -6.2% Resource % 20 BLU 5.4% 48 CML 2.9% 77 CVH -0.7% 104 NED -3.4% 129 CLS -6.4% 157 RBP -13.7% 21 SHP 5.3% 49 TON 2.9% 78 PFG -0.8% 105 AFX -3.5% 130 MND -6.5% 158 BIL -13.8% 22 BRN 5.0% 50 CZA 2.8% 79 OCE -0.9% 106 LHG -3.6% 131 TFG -6.6% 159 HAR -14.5% 23 PNC 4.8% 51 AEG 2.8% 80 HCI -0.9% 107 SHF -3.8% 132 ZED -6.6% 160 SGL -15.4% 24 GND 4.4% 52 SYC 2.6% 81 RMH -1.0% 108 AWA -3.9% Top % 161 LON -16.0% SA Listed Prop 4.4% 53 DLT 2.4% Small Cap -1.1% 109 SSK -3.9% 133 PPC -6.7% 162 ARI -16.8% 25 HPA 4.4% 54 PAM 2.2% 82 PIK -1.2% 110 MDC -4.0% 134 AFR -6.7% 163 GFI -17.4% 26 CPI 4.3% 55 REB 1.7% 83 TRE -1.3% 111 AWB -4.0% 135 MMI -7.0% 164 ELI -17.9% 27 HWN 4.3% 56 HDC 1.7% 84 WBO -1.5% SWIX -4.0% 136 SUR -7.2% 165 AGL -18.4% 28 AVI 4.3% 57 RIN 1.5% 85 NTC -1.5% 112 REM -4.0% 137 BCX -7.2% 166 PAN -19.4% 58 CMH 1.5% 86 ATNP -1.5% 113 CLH -4.1% 138 MNP -7.7% 167 ANG -23.1% Key Size Sector Large Cap Resources Mid Cap Financials Small Cap Industrials Following the real estate fall in May, June again saw improved returns with the FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property Index returning 4.4%. In contrast, the Resources 10 ended the month with negative 13.5% and the poor returns from the resources shares are evident. June saw the opportunity set widen, as 111 shares outperformed the FTSE/JSE SWIX, while 124 shares outperformed the FTSE/JSE ALSI. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 2 manager of managers

3 Market returns concentration June 2013 (three months) Three months to June CML 34.1% 30 CMH 8.8% 59 ASR 3.0% 83 FFA -0.3% 110 ACP -4.3% 139 SAC -8.8% 2 CCO 29.3% 31 CSB 8.7% 60 GRF 2.9% SA Listed Prop -0.4% 111 MMI -4.6% 140 RLO -8.9% 3 NPN 27.4% 32 PNC 8.6% 61 JSE 2.9% 84 INL -0.4% 112 CPL -4.6% 141 EXX -9.9% 4 RIN 24.9% 33 ZED 8.5% 62 REI 2.7% 85 BLU -0.5% 113 ARL -4.6% 142 FSR -10.2% 5 ALT 23.3% 34 KGM 8.4% 63 MND 2.5% 86 VOD -0.5% 114 SPG -4.7% 143 YRK -10.2% 6 CFR 21.5% 35 RMI 8.2% 64 EMI 2.5% 87 SNT -0.6% 115 AWA -4.9% 144 CZA -10.6% 7 MFL 19.9% Industrial % 65 NPK 2.3% Mid Cap -0.7% 116 RBW -5.2% Resource % 8 AFP 19.1% 36 MDC 7.9% 66 ADH 2.1% 88 HPA -0.8% 117 RMH -5.3% 145 TFG -12.5% 9 BAT 19.0% 37 DLT 7.7% 67 SLM 2.1% 89 HSP -0.8% 118 PIK -5.3% 146 TON -12.5% 10 APN 18.9% 38 SOL 7.5% 68 TBS 1.7% 90 TRE -0.9% 119 SUI -5.3% 147 AQP -13.0% 11 MPC 17.4% 39 DSY 7.4% 69 MPT 1.7% 91 SAB -1.1% 120 MSM -5.8% 148 BCX -13.9% 12 HWN 17.1% 40 BEL 7.3% 70 SHP 1.5% 92 RES -1.4% 121 BIL -5.8% 149 BAW -14.0% 13 NTC 16.2% 41 AIP 7.3% 71 MNP 1.1% 93 SHF -2.0% 122 PPC -5.9% 150 PAN -14.4% 14 OMN 16.1% 42 SPP 7.1% 72 BVT 1.1% 94 INP -2.0% 123 LON -6.2% 151 SAP -15.0% 15 TMG 15.2% 43 MUR 7.0% SWIX Top % 95 CLR -2.1% 124 PGL -6.3% 152 HPB -18.1% 16 AFE 14.3% 44 EOH 6.7% 73 REB 0.9% 96 GRT -2.1% 125 AWB -6.3% 153 RBP -18.5% 17 MTN 14.0% 45 HYP 6.6% SWIX 0.7% 97 MTA -2.1% 126 KIO -6.4% 154 NHM -19.4% 18 RBX 13.6% 46 CMP 6.6% 74 WBO 0.7% Financial % 127 SUR -6.8% 155 AGL -19.9% 19 ACL 12.5% 47 ITU 5.6% 75 SSK 0.4% 98 LEW -2.5% Fledgling -6.9% 156 AFR -19.9% 20 PFG 12.1% 48 GND 5.0% 50% of total market cap 99 MRF -2.7% 128 TCP -7.0% 157 ELI -20.1% 21 HCI 11.8% 49 REM 4.5% 76 ATN 0.4% 100 ADR -2.9% 129 AFX -7.1% 158 ARI -20.9% 22 AVI 10.7% 50 PAM 4.5% Small Cap 0.4% 101 CIL -3.1% 130 AEG -7.3% 159 AMS -22.8% 23 TKG 10.7% 51 GPL 4.4% 77 IPF 0.4% 102 IVT -3.1% 131 VKE -7.6% 160 DRD -26.3% 24 FBR 10.6% 52 CLH 4.4% 78 ILV 0.0% 103 CLS -3.5% 132 ATNP -7.7% 161 LHG -27.1% 25 LHC 9.9% 53 OCT 4.0% 79 OML -0.1% 104 TRU -3.6% 133 FPT -7.8% 162 GFI -27.8% 26 RDF 9.6% 54 PGR 4.0% 80 LBH -0.1% 105 SYC -3.6% 134 JDG -7.9% 163 IMP -31.4% 27 OCE 9.3% 55 NEP 3.9% Top % 106 SBK -3.8% 135 NED -7.9% 164 ANG -34.7% 28 DTC 9.1% 56 BRN 3.8% 81 IPL -0.2% 107 HDC -4.1% 136 CPI -8.2% 165 HAR -39.5% 29 CVH 8.9% 57 BTI 3.5% All Share -0.2% 108 ASA -4.2% 137 EQS -8.7% 166 ABL -45.3% 58 PMM 3.3% 82 KAP -0.3% 109 PET -4.2% 138 WHL -8.8% 167 SGL -47.0% Key Size Sector Large Cap Resources Mid Cap Financials Small Cap Industrials Industrials dominated, Resources were poor. Financial mid-cap share Coronation was the top-performing share for the three months, a staggering 79.4% ahead of the Financial small-cap share, ABIL (African Bank), the poorest-performing financial share for the quarter. ABIL was sold down after the company posted a subdued financial performance, having written off R445m of non-performing loans in March. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 3 manager of managers

4 Market returns concentration June 2013 (one year) One year to June 2013 Key 1 CML 139.2% 30 SAB 48.6% 59 IPF 34.7% 84 GRT 21.2% 110 MSM 8.7% 138 KIO -10.5% Size Sector 2 MDC 100.0% 31 NTC 48.5% 60 SLM 34.7% 85 VOD 21.2% Fledgling 8.2% 139 SAP -11.1% Large Cap Resources 3 CFR 98.2% 32 AFE 47.6% 61 MMI 33.9% All Share 21.0% 111 RLO 6.7% 140 MRF -11.3% 4 Mid Cap Financials MND 85.7% 33 REM 47.5% 62 HYP 32.8% Financial % 112 VKE 6.6% 141 TKG -12.6% 5 CCO 82.3% 34 CIL 47.2% 63 CVH * 32.7% SWIX 20.8% 113 HSP 6.6% 142 SSK -13.5% Small Cap Industrials 6 APN 82.2% 35 LBH 46.7% 64 WHL 32.4% 86 PMM 20.4% 114 CLS 6.0% 143 PGL -13.7% 7 MNP 82.0% 36 OML 46.3% 65 SOL 32.0% 87 REB 20.3% 115 PGR 5.9% 144 ATNP -14.7% 8 OCE 80.4% 37 AWB 46.3% 66 RES 31.4% 88 SNT 20.1% 116 SBK 5.1% 145 TCP -14.8% 9 OMN 77.7% Industrial % 67 KGM 31.4% 89 ITU 20.0% 117 NED 5.0% 146 AEG -14.9% 10 NEP 77.1% 38 CLH 45.5% 68 RDF 30.9% 90 BEL 19.0% 118 DLT * 4.6% 147 PAM -14.9% 11 NPN 68.9% 39 TRE 44.6% 69 ADH 27.6% 91 FFA 17.9% 119 BAW 3.6% 148 HDC -16.9% 12 RBX 68.7% 40 HCI 43.5% 70 AWA 27.5% 92 AFX 17.7% 120 KAP 3.2% 149 ARL -17.5% 13 HWN 66.4% 41 BRN 42.4% 71 AVI 27.2% 93 RMH 17.0% 121 TON 2.7% 150 RBP -17.8% 14 DSY 64.5% 42 TMG * 40.7% 72 EMI 27.0% 94 SYC 16.6% 122 SHF 2.4% 151 TFG -20.1% 15 GRF 63.7% 43 CMH 40.2% 73 IPL 26.7% 95 PPC 16.5% 123 DRD 2.3% 152 EXX -20.9% 16 ELI 63.0% 44 MPT 39.5% 46% of total market cap Mid Cap 15.8% 124 MUR 1.7% 153 JDG -21.5% 17 BAT 60.5% 45 INL 39.2% 74 BTI 26.6% 96 ILV 15.6% 125 AQP 1.7% 154 AFR -24.7% 18 SUR 59.3% 46 MFL 38.7% 75 SHP 25.4% 97 FPT 15.4% 126 PAN 1.3% 155 LHG -24.8% 19 GND 58.7% 47 BVT 38.7% 76 REI 25.0% 98 RBW 15.0% 127 CSB 1.1% 156 AGL -27.1% 20 MTA 57.5% 48 PFG 38.6% 77 SAC 24.6% 99 ACP 14.9% 128 TRU 1.0% 157 LON -27.5% 21 FBR 55.9% 49 IVT 38.0% Small Cap 24.6% 100 ADR 14.7% 129 JSE -2.2% 158 PET -28.5% 22 HPB 55.2% 50 INP 37.7% 78 TBS 24.4% 101 FSR 13.7% 130 CPI -3.7% 159 IMP -30.8% 23 RMI 54.4% 51 NHM 37.6% 79 LHC 24.4% 102 CPL 13.4% 131 LEW -4.0% 160 ACL -38.9% 24 EOH 54.3% 52 MTN 37.4% SA Listed Prop 24.0% 103 BCX 12.9% 132 ALT -5.9% 161 AMS -39.2% 25 PNC 54.0% 53 NPK 37.2% 80 MPC 23.9% 104 BIL 12.3% 133 ARI -7.2% 162 GFI -42.4% 26 SPG 51.9% 54 ZED 36.2% 81 CLR 23.4% 105 AIP 10.4% Resource % 163 SGL * -47.6% 27 RIN 50.8% 55 HPA 35.9% 82 WBO 22.2% 106 ASA 10.1% 134 YRK -7.7% 164 ANG -49.3% 28 GPL 50.3% 56 BLU 35.7% Top % 107 SUI 10.1% 135 PIK -7.9% 165 HAR -52.5% 29 AFP 50.0% 57 CMP 35.7% SWIX Top % 108 SPP 9.4% 136 ATN -8.3% 166 ABL -52.8% 58 OCT 34.8% 83 DTC 21.3% 109 ASR 8.9% 137 EQS -8.9% 167 CZA -63.7% Mid-cap financials share, Coronation, remained the top-performing share (year end to May and June 2013). While the majority of the resource shares performed poorly for the year, Northam Platinum managed to return 37.6% (and Sasol returned 32%). Coal (CZA), on the other hand, ended the year down (negative 63.7%). Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd *Partial returns for Capevin Holdings (CVH) from 3 August 2012, Times (TMG) from 17 September 2012, Delta Prop (DLT) from 2 November 2012 and Sibanye (SGL) from 11 Feb 2013 to end June manager of managers

5 Market returns concentration June 2013 (FTSE/JSE ALSI) for one year Cumulative contr ribution to total index return Number of shares RICHEMONT SAB NASPERS-N- MTN GROUP Top 5 SASOL 61% Top 6 BHPBILL 65% OLDMUTUAL ASPEN REMGRO Top 10 BATS 78% MONDI PLC SANLAM MEDCLIN BIDVEST CORONAT SHOPRIT NETCARE DISCOVERY WOOLIES Top 20 INVPLC 92% Remaining 141 8% Negative 37-11% Market-cap weighted returns 10 shares contributed 78% to the return of the ALSI, with the top 20 contributing 92%. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 5 manager of managers

6 Market returns concentration June 2013 (FTSE/JSE SWIX) for one year Cumulative contrib bution to total index return Number of shares NASPERS-N- MTN GROUP RICHEMONT SAB Top 5 SASOL 50% Top 6 ASPEN 55% REMGRO BATS OLDMUTUAL Top 10 SANLAM 68% MEDCLIN BIDVEST CORONAT SHOPRIT NETCARE MONDI PLC DISCOVERY WOOLIES BHPBILL Top 20 MONDI LTD 85% Remaining % Negative 37-11% Market-cap weighted return 10 shares contributed 68% to the return of the SWIX, while 20 shares contributed 85% of the return. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 6 manager of managers

7 MSCI developed and emerging markets One year to June Jun-12 One year to June 2013 Threemonthsto June 2013 Developed markets = 16.2% Developed markets = -0.1% Emerging markets = 0.3% Emerging markets = -9.2% FTSE/JSE ALSI (dollars) = -0.2% FTSE/JSE ALSI (dollars) = -6.7% 29-Jul Aug Sep Oct-12 The gap between the MSCI Developed and MSCI Emerging Market Indices continued to widen for the three months to June. The slump in commodity prices during April was one of the drivers, causing this gap to widen, as was the weaker data emerging from China. Even though certain commodity prices experienced a slight recovery in June, concerns regarding commodities remain, which continues to be one of numerous factors challenging emerging markets. Source: MSCI Barra and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 26-Nov-12 7 manager of managers 26-Dec-12 MSCI Developed Markets (USD) MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) FTSE/JSE ALSI (USD) 25-Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-13

8 Developed equity One year to June % % +21.0% +17.9% +17.0% +15.5% +11.6% Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May Jun Jun-13 Paris CAC 40 Germany Composite DAX Australia ASX All Ordinaries UK FTSE 100 Japan Nikkei 225 S&P 500 SA ALSI The Nikkei remained in the lead. Although it is suggested that a considerable portion of the run-up seems to be the result of speculative positions that were placed months before the Bank of Japan embarked on its version of aggressive quantitative easing in April of 2013, and which are now prone to profit taking. Double-digit positive returns for the other depicted developed markets. South Africa, as emerging market proxy, also fared well (in rand terms). Source: I-Net Bridge, Barclays Research and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd All returns in each country s local currency 8 manager of managers

9 Equity indices of the PIIGS in dollars One year to June % +19.4% +18.8% +9.5% +8.0% +3.6% Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May Jun Jun-13 Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain EMU While eurozone economic woes are not necessarily over, some confidence has returned to the area, cyclical indicators have begun to improve, ECB monetary policy is expected to remain loose and the equity markets in the area are largely performing quite well. *EMU includes 11 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Source: MSCI Barra and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd All returns in dollar terms 9 manager of managers

10 BRICS equity markets in dollars One year to June % % -0.2% % % Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May Jun Jun-13 Brazil China India Russia South Africa Higher inflation in Brazil has affected consumption and kept GDP depressed in the first quarter of Policy rates rose in response to the higher inflation. The rand weakness for the year affected the returns of the South African equity market in US dollar terms. Source: MSCI Barra, I-Net Bridge, Barclays Research and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd All returns in dollar terms 10 manager of managers

11 Gold and platinum Three months to June % % -14.9% -19.6% -22.7% Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun-13 Gold (ZAR) Platinum (ZAR) Gold (USD) Platinum (USD) Dollar-Rand The carnage in gold and platinum continued, with these commodities ending in double-digit negative territory in US dollar terms for the three months to June. In June alone, gold and platinum in rand terms ended with negative 16.3% and negative 11.3% (with slightly better returns in US dollars due to rand strength of 2.1% in June). Reduced economic risks, lower inflationary pressures and a more hawkish-than-expected Fed have largely been responsible for shifting gold away from its safe-haven status. Source: I-Net Bridge, Barclays Research and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 11 manager of managers

12 Gold and platinum One year to June % +12.3% % -10.4% % Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May Jun Jun-13 Gold (ZAR) Platinum (ZAR) Gold (USD) Platinum (USD) Dollar-Rand Only platinum s rand return remained positive for the year, driven up by the weaker rand. A possible future reduction in quantitative easing and the slowdown in China have contributed to the decline. South Africa, as the largest of the world s platinum producers, is posing a threat to the platinum supply with its spate of labour-relation issues. 12 manager of managers

13 SA 10-year bond yields Five years to June Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun-13 SA 10 year bond yield Having reached a low in April, the SA 10-year bond yield rose during May and June. The bond market reacted when expectations of a possible rate decrease that had been priced in, did not materialise in May, and yields continue to soar as emerging markets were sold off heavily after the Fed suggested it would begin reducing its bond-buying programme. 13 manager of managers

14 FTSE/JSE sectors Three months to June Standard deviation Resources: 1.7% Industrials: 1.3% Financials: 1.3% +6.9% % % Mar Apr Apr Apr May May May May-13 Resources Industrials Financials 08-Jun Jun Jun-13 Each of the sectors experienced an increase in volatility. Resources, which had risen during May, fell again sharply in June, and only industrials ended the quarter with a positive return. Various factors have affected resources, causing the decline in June, including the slowdown in China, the announcement by the Fed of a possible QE3 taper, together with wage issues in South Africa. 14 manager of managers

15 FTSE/JSE sectors One year to June % % % Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-13 Resources Industrials Financials Industrials dominated strongly for the year to June. Personal goods (Richemont) was the top performing sub-sector for the period, with the share up 98%. Richemont reaps about half of its revenue from Asia, with a growing demand from China for luxury goods. In May, the company reported its strongest-ever full-year result, with the jewellery and watch division having experienced a strong performance. 15 manager of managers

16 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed (three months to June 2013) Three months to June Media Consumer Services 27.2% 19 Industrial Engineering Industrials 0.1% 2 Personal Goods Consumer Goods 21.5% 20 Industrial Transportation Industrials 0.0% 3 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care 16.1% 21 Non-life Insurance Financials -0.6% 4 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication 12.2% 22 Beverages Consumer Goods -1.1% 5 Chemicals Basic Materials 12.1% 23 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials -1.3% 6 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care 11.4% 24 Construction & Materials Industrials -1.5% 7 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication 10.7% 25 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials -2.0% 8 Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology 8.6% 26 Household Goods Consumer Goods -2.0% 9 Oil & Gas Producers Oil & Gas 7.5% 27 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods -2.3% 10 Software & Computer Services Technology 5.2% 28 General Financial Financials -2.5% 11 Equity Investment Instruments Financials 5.0% 29 General Retailers Consumer Services -3.0% 12 Support Services Industrials 3.2% 30 Industrial Metals Basic Materials -4.0% 13 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials 3.2% 31 Banks Financials -6.2% 14 Food Producers Consumer Goods 2.0% 32 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials -8.9% 15 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 1.3% 33 Coal Mining Mining -10.0% 16 General Industrials Industrials 1.1% 34 General Mining Mining -10.8% 17 Life Insurance Financials 0.9% 35 Platinum Mining Mining -23.9% 18 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services 0.2% 36 Gold Mining Mining -33.5% Key Resources Financials Industrials Mining continued to struggle, with platinum and gold experiencing the most significant losses. Media ended the quarter as the top-performing sub-sector, driven by the return of Naspers (27.3%) and to a lesser extent by Times Media Group (15.2%). Naspers posted an expected 20% jump in annual profit, boosted by a strong performance in its internet businesses and a weaker rand. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 16 manager of managers

17 FTSE/JSE sectors Decomposed (one year to June 2013) One year to June Personal Goods Consumer Goods 98.1% 19 Food Producers Consumer Goods 21.1% 2 Media Consumer Services 68.2% 20 Non-life Insurance Financials 19.9% 3 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care 65.0% 21 Real Estate Investment Trusts Financials 18.3% 4 Automobiles & Parts Consumer Goods 57.2% 22 General Financial Financials 18.2% 5 Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology 54.1% 23 Food & Drug Retailers Consumer Services 17.8% 6 Forestry & Paper Basic Materials 54.1% 24 General Retailers Consumer Services 9.2% 7 Chemicals Basic Materials 53.7% 25 Banks Financials 8.8% 8 Beverages Consumer Goods 48.6% 26 Industrial Engineering Industrials 8.5% 9 Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care 47.6% 27 Construction & Materials Industrials 7.5% 10 Life Insurance Financials 42.7% 28 Support Services Industrials 5.0% 11 General Industrials Industrials 36.8% 29 Household Goods Consumer Goods 2.9% 12 Industrial Transportation Industrials 35.5% 30 Electronic & Electrical Equipment Industrials 2.0% 13 Equity Investment Instruments Financials 35.1% 31 General Mining Mining -4.4% 14 Mobile Telecommunications Telecommunication 35.0% 32 Fixed Line Telecommunications Telecommunication -12.6% 15 Oil & Gas Producers Oil & Gas 32.0% 33 Industrial Metals Basic Materials -17.0% 16 Travel & Leisure Consumer Services 31.0% 34 Coal Mining Mining -23.1% 17 Real Estate Investment & Services Financials 29.4% 35 Platinum Mining Mining -27.4% 18 Software & Computer Services Technology 28.4% 36 Gold Mining Mining -46.5% Key Resources Financials Industrials Personal Goods (Richemont) and Media experienced strong returns for the year. Gold Mining remains the poorest-performing sub-sector by a notable margin, with shares Goldfields, Sibanye, Anglogold and Harmony all down by more than 42% for the year. Fixed Line Telecommunications (Telkom) remained in the red for the year. In June, the operator advised it would make a R12bn impairment charge on the carrying value of its assets, which placed downward pressure on the share price. Source: Barra, Deutsche Securities and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 17 manager of managers

18 FTSE/JSE market caps Three months to June % -0.2% -0.7% Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May Jun Jun Jun-13 ALSI 40 Mid Cap Small Cap The divergence between the three areas of the market has narrowed. Large caps fell heavily during June to end below small caps and only slightly ahead of mid caps. Shares that contributed to this decline include Anglo, Anglo Plats and Implats. 18 manager of managers

19 FTSE/JSE market caps One year to June % +21.8% +15.8% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun-13 ALSI 40 Mid Cap Small Cap Mid caps continued to lag for the year, driven down by poor performers Abil, Harmony, Arcelormittal and Lonmin, among others. Small caps, on the other hand, pulled ahead, with the shares including Raubex, Howden and Group 5, among others, experiencing strong returns. 19 manager of managers

20 FTSE/JSE market caps 10 years to June 2013 (one-year rolling) 60% 40% Mid caps outperform relative to ALSI 40/ Small caps 20% 0% -20% -40% ALSI 40/Small caps outperform relative to Mid caps -60% 01-May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May-13 Mid Cap vs Small Cap Mid Cap vs ALSI 40 Mid caps underperformed large caps and small caps for the period ending June 2013 for the second consecutive year. 20 manager of managers

21 Asset classes Three months to June % +6.9% +4.2% +1.3% -0.2% -0.3% -2.3% -4.9% Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun-13 Global Bonds ALSI ALBI STeFI Global Equity SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB There were mixed asset class returns for the quarter. Rand weakness continued to contribute to the returns of global equities and bonds, helping these to attain positive returns for the quarter. Except for local cash, all the other local asset classes depicted ended the quarter with negative returns, as news about the potential US QE 3 tapering and lower growth prospects from China dominated the headlines and brought about significant fluctuations in the markets. 21 manager of managers

22 Asset classes One year to June % % +21.3% +21.0% +17.0% % +6.3% +5.3% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun-13 Global Bonds ALSI ALBI STeFI Global Equity SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB Global equity markets (including the local market) slid on the back of Fed talks regarding the reduction in asset purchases, given signs that the US economy was getting back on track. This decline is evident towards the end of the period. Nevertheless, global equities (in rand terms), supported by a weak rand, managed to return just over 40%. 22 manager of managers

23 Asset classes Ten years to June % % % +9.4% +8.1% +7.9% +7.5% +2.8% 30-Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun-13 Global Bonds ALSI ALBI STeFI Global Equity SA Listed Property USD/ZAR ILB For the 10 years to June 2013, FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property remains the top-performing asset class, returning 24.7% on an annualised basis. The SteFI recorded a positive real return* for the period, and local equities were the second-best performing asset class after listed property. *CPI measured on a lagged basis due to availability of data 23 manager of managers

24 FTSE/JSE ALSI vs FTSE/JSE SWIX with sectors One-year rolling returns from December 2001 to June % 80% 12% 60% 40% 6% 20% 0% 0% -20% -40% -6% -60% -80% -12% 01-Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun-13 ALSI vs SWIX active (12m rolling) Resources Industrials Financials The FTSE/JSE ALSI outperformed the FTSE/JSE SWIX for the year to June, albeit by a narrower margin than the year to May. 24 manager of managers

25 Gold Three months to June % -18.2% -19.6% % Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May Jun Jun Jun-13 Heavy losses for gold, the resources and the gold miners the suggestion regarding tapering by the Federal Reserve Bank in the US (the bank may end its $85 billion per month bond purchases next year if the economy continues to strengthen) as well as China s announcement that manufacturing was at a nine-month low, drove down the price of gold. Gold Mining Index NewGold (ETF) Gold Price (ZAR) Resources 25 manager of managers

26 Gold One year to June % -10.4% -11.7% % Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun-13 Gold Mining Index NewGold (ETF) Gold Price (ZAR) Resources The gold miners struggled for the year and the gold price has fallen significantly even the weaker rand for the year was not able to assist in bringing about positive gold price in rand terms. 26 manager of managers

27 Gold Longer-term growth to June The gold price in US dollarshas returned 7.6% on an annualised basis since the last 'dip' on 31 October 2008 The gold price in US dollarshas fallen 30.3% since September Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec-12 Gold Price (USD) Losses in gold have continued since September 2012 and the gold price fell 30.3% since then to the end of June manager of managers

28 Gold (rands), FTSE/JSE ALSI and SWIX, STeFI One-year rolling returns to June % 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Gold (ZAR) ALSI STEFI SWIX Good diversification benefits between gold and the equity indices (ALSI and SWIX) continued. Gold fell significantly during June, resulting in the one-year rolling return (in rand terms) to end substantially negative. 28 manager of managers

29 Commodities One year to June % -3.0% -5.6% -7.4% -11.2% -22.8% -28.5% 29-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-13 Brent Spot (Oil) Gold Aluminium Copper Silver Platinum Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Note: Crude oil makes up the largest component of the CRB Index, at 23%, while the other 18 constituents all have weightings of between 1% and 6%. Commodities struggled for the year to June, with only Brent spot (oil) ending in positive territory. The slowdown in Chinese growth has had a significant effect on commodity prices. Investor appetite for platinum has, however, increased and prices could move higher should end-june labour negotiations in South Africa fail to make progress. Source: I-Net Bridge, Barclays Research and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd All returns in dollar terms 29 manager of managers

30 Exchange rates One year to June % % Exchange rate % Three months to June 2013: Sterling/rand: 7.3% Euro/rand: 8.8% Dollar/rand: 6.9% 29-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-12 Sterling-Rand Euro-Rand Dollar-Rand 11-Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun-13 Rand weakness continued, with the rand weakening more than 5% against the major currencies for the three months to June. South Africa s external funding needs are large and met by a combination of bond portfolio inflows and carry-trade flows with both of these at risk, especially given rising inflation and labour market unrest, and this creates a challenging environment for the rand. Source: I-Net Bridge, Barclays Research and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 30 manager of managers

31 SAVI-VIX Since February 2007 to June 2013 SAVI Financial/credit crisis European debt crisis (Sovereign debt concerns) Japan struck by natural disaster S&Pdowngrade US debt Renewed fears about eurozone debt Fed advises of potential tapering of QE 3 US fiscal cliff fears VIX Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb-10 SAVI 01-Jun Oct-10 VIX 01-Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun-13 While the VIXI climbed on the back of the Fed s announcement regarding possible QE 3 tapering, it remained below the fear gauge of 30. The SAVI followed the VIXI s spike, but remains at low levels compared with previous periods when spikes were experienced. 31 manager of managers

32 Foreign transactions 2005 to June ,000 30,000 20,000 10, : Net inflows equities, net outflow bonds 2006: Net inflows dominate (equities and bonds) 2007: Net inflows dominate (equities and bonds) 2009: Net inflows equities, net outflow bonds 2010: Net inflows of equities and bonds dominate 2011: Net outflows of equities (-17.2bn), net inflows into bonds (37.5bn) 2012: Net outflows of equities, net inflows into bonds R(m) ,000-20,000-30,000-40,000 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan : Net outflows dominate (equities and bonds) Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Foreign Transactions Bonds Foreign Transactions Equities Rand/USDollar Exchange Rate Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr There have been mixed results over the years, but net inflows dominate for the whole period, while inflows during 2013 thus far have occurred into equities and bonds on a net basis, even though May and June saw bonds experiencing outflows. 32 manager of managers

33 Foreign transactions Three months to June ,000 2,000 R(m) 0-2,000-4,000-6, Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May Jun Jun Jun-13 Foreign Transactions Bonds Foreign Transactions Equities While net inflows into equities and bonds from foreigners continued, foreigners sold bonds later in the quarter on the back of lower-than-expected GDP numbers at the end of May, as well as the announcement of possible asset repurchase tapering by Ben Bernanke in June. 33 manager of managers

34 Bonds versus cash One-year rolling active for 10 years to June % 10% ALBI outperforms 5% 0% -5% -10% ALBI underperforms -15% Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 The ALBI s outperformance relative to the SteFI diminished significantly in the year to end June, as bond yields spiked towards the end of the period, on the back of a priced-in interest rate decrease that did not materialise, GDP downgrades and a sizeable current account deficit, as well as due to emerging markets being sold off heavily as after the US Federal Reserve signalled it would start winding down its bond-buying programme. ALBI vs STeFI 34 manager of managers

35 Bonds versus cash Three-year rolling active for 10 years to June % 6% ALBI outperforms 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% ALBI underperforms -8% Jun-06 Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 ALBI vs STeFI The ALBI continued to outperform the SteFI for three-year rolling periods. 35 manager of managers

36 Momentum Investor Confidence Index June Busines Cycle Downturn Momentum ICI The index broke below the sideways range seen in 2013, registering a number of The global focus has been twofold, with emphasis in the US remaining on a tapering to the Fed s QE programme and sentiment has been a tightening of liquidity conditions in China. Source: ETM Analytics (Pty) Ltd and Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd 36 manager of managers

37 Short-term real interest rates Monthly to May % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 01/12/01 01/04/02 01/08/02 01/12/02 01/04/03 01/08/03 01/12/03 01/04/04 01/08/04 01/12/04 01/04/05 01/08/05 01/12/05 01/04/06 01/08/06 01/12/06 01/04/07 01/08/07 01/12/07 01/04/08 01/08/08 01/12/08 01/04/09 01/08/09 01/12/09 01/04/10 01/08/10 01/12/10 01/04/11 01/08/11 01/12/11 01/04/12 01/08/12 01/12/12 01/04/13 Lagged due to availability of inflation figures US EUR SA UK Real interest rates remain in negative territory. 37 manager of managers

38 End of key market performance drivers monthly charts for June manager of managers

39 Thank you 39 manager of managers

40 Disclaimer Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd, registration number 2004/023064/07, is an authorised financial services provider in terms of Section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002 (FAIS Act), as amended, FSP licence number This information is not advice as defined and contemplated in the FAIS Act. Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd is also registered as an administrator in terms of Section 13B of the Pension Funds Act, registration number 24/401. Past investment returns are not indicative of future returns. MMI Group Limited s responsibility in connection with the information in this document is limited to its assumed liability in terms of the policy document. Published promotional material, the application form, its appendices and any other administration forms containing details of the portfolio(s) and underlying investments should all be read in conjunction with the policy document as they form part of the policy contract between MMI Group Limited and the retirement fund. Full terms and conditions on the portfolio are set out in the MMI Group Limited policy document. Transactions such as investments in, disinvestment from, switching from and the provision of policy benefits and payment of consideration are subject to the terms and conditions of the policy document and in the event of any conflict between the terms and conditions of this document and the policy, the terms and conditions of the policy will prevail. The asset allocation of the portfolios is dependent on Regulation 28 of the Pension Funds Act, 24 of 1956, as amended and the limits of the type of investments in which the portfolio June be invested June be amended from time to time. The information and any view or opinion contained in this presentation is proprietary to Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd and is protected by copyright under the Berne Convention. In terms of the Copyright Act, 98 of 1978, as amended, this report or any part thereof June not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from Momentum Manager of Managers (Pty) Ltd. The illegal and unlawful or attempted illegal and unlawful copying or use of this information or views June result in criminal or civil legal liability. 40 manager of managers

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