INTERNATIONAL INVESTING: GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE
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- Silvia Singleton
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1 INTERNATIONAL INVESTING: GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE
2 Classic and Current Rationale Spell Investment Opportunities Overseas Why International Always Classic Rationale.S. and overseas equities take turns outu performing each other over market cycles. iversifying with international has helped D im prove downside protection in a portfolio. More of the world s growing GDP and market cap are driven from outside the Why International Now Current Rationale Attractive valuations vs. and strong earnings still appear far from cycle peak. anufacturing and industrial production M indicators remain strong. nique businesses and singular market U opportunities, especially in China.
3 Classic Rationale: When Stocks Dominate, Overseas Companies Tend to be Undervalued. Global Market Leaders Change over Time Aual Returns (Ranked in Order of Performance) % % 79.02% 19.20% 2.11% 18.63% 32.39% 13.69% 1.38% 11.96% 37.28% 11.63% % 32.46% 15.06% % 17.90% 23.29% -1.82% -0.39% 11.60% 25.03% 5.49% % 26.46% 8.21% % 16.00% -2.27% -4.48% % 1.51% 21.83% Sources: FactSet, MSCI.com, and Standard & Poor s. is the S&P 500 Index, other regions are MSCI indices. All MSCI indices are net USD returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. After many years leading the pack, equities trailed overseas stocks last year. Is the tide turning? Now may be a good time to increase allocations to international stocks. Cycles of Global Investment Performance... and Outperformance Market vs. International Market From To Outperformer By Apr. 30, 1971 Mar. 30, 1973 MSCI 62.2% Mar. 30, 1973 Oct. 31, 1976 S&P % Oct. 31, 1976 Oct. 31, 1980 MSCI 90.0% Oct. 31, 1980 Oct. 31, 1982 S&P % Oct. 31, 1982 Feb. 28, 1989 MSCI 409.4% Feb. 28, 1989 Aug. 31, 2000 S&P % Aug. 31, 2000 Nov. 30, 2007 MSCI 60.5% Nov. 30, 2007 Feb. 28, 2017 S&P % Feb. 28, 2017 Dec. 31, 2017 MSCI 5.4% Has the next cycle begun? Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Thornburg Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Outperformance by or non- markets has sometimes been fleeting and sometimes lasted many years, with significant variances at times. This makes the case to always have some representation of both in a diversified portfolio.
4 More Opportunities Abroad, But Investors Staying Home Home Country Bias -Based Investors Overinvested at Home 25% 25% 75% 75% Non- World GDP Equity Fund Assets Sources: World GDP: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2017 Equity Fund Assets: 2017 Investment Company Fact Book, Investment Company Institute, as of 12/31/2016 The United States represents 25% of global Gross Domestic Product. Despite this growing opportunity set, investors continue to show home country bias, preferring domestic equities over international stocks by a wide margin. Share of World GDP Over Time in Current Dollars Historical and Forecast 90% 81% 72% 63% 54% 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% Forecast Advanced Economies and Developed Economies United States China 0% Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October The direction of the global economy favors emerging market advancement over time.
5 Current Rationale: What This Means for Overseas Investing How We Think On a Broad Company Level, Upside Potential Appears Better Overseas. Valuations Look Attractive Relative Forward P/E (as of 3/31/18) Ratio of MSCI P/E / S&P 500 P/E +1 Std Dev 10-Year Average -1 Std Dev 3/31/08 3/31/10 3/31/12 3/31/14 3/31/16 3/31/18 Source: Bloomberg. We search the globe for fundamentally sound, undervalued companies, more of which are overseas. Non- company P/Es are near 10-year lows relative to the While last year s returns look great, valuations for international stocks remain quite compelling. Overseas Growth Data Is Strengthening More Opportunities for Earnings Growth 200 Earnings per Share (12/31/07 3/31/18) MSCI EPS (Blended 12 Months) S&P 500 EPS (Blended 12 Months) 60 12/31/07 3/31/09 3/31/10 3/31/11 3/31/12 3/31/13 3/31/14 3/31/15 3/31/16 3/31/17 3/31/18 Source: Bloomberg, based on estimated earnings per share. companies are reporting peak level earnings; while strong, perhaps there is more room to run internationally, as earnings remain over 25% below the peak.
6 Eurozone Purchasing Managers Indices Directionally Higher Eurozone PMI Composite, Manufacturing, Services (7/31/14 3/31/18) Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Markit Eurozone Services PMI /31/14 3/31/15 9/30/15 3/31/16 9/30/16 3/31/17 Source: Bloomberg. 9/30/17 3/31/18 The Purchasing Mangers Indices (PMI), as survey indicator of economic health, while below peak levels, still indicate economic expansion. Industrial Production on the Rise Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY percentage change, 6/30/12 2/28/18) /30/12 3/31/13 9/30/13 3/31/14 9/30/14 3/31/15 9/30/15 3/31/16 9/30/16 3/31/17 9/30/17 2/28/18 Source: Bloomberg. Industrial production, a leading economic indicator, in Europe remains around multi-year highs. China Production is Strong and Steady China Producer Price Index (YoY percentage change, 9/30/12 3/31/18) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 9/30/12 3/31/13 9/30/13 3/31/14 9/30/14 3/31/15 9/30/15 3/31/16 9/30/16 3/31/17 9/30/17 3/31/18 Source: Bloomberg. Producer prices in the world s second-largest economy remain strong relative to where they ve been over the last few years. As a major global exporter, China now is no longer exporting deflation, and rather is a clear driver of global growth.
7 Our Active Approach to Overseas Equities How We Invest Investment Income Builder Fund A Global Approach to Growing Income n A dynamic blend of global dividend-paying stocks and bonds of virtually any type. n Searches for companies with the ability and willingness to pay dividends, especially in overseas markets, which have had stronger dividend-paying cultures. Global Opportunities Fund Flexible and Focused Global Value Investing n Our most flexible equity offering with the freedom to invest globally to enhance riskadjusted returns. n A focused portfolio, which employs a value-sensitive investment framework to invest in quality businesses that are undervalued. International Value Fund Around the World in Search of Value n A diversified portfolio of leading, mostly large-cap international companies, carefully chosen via a fundamentals-driven, bottom-up, valuation-sensitive process. n Applies our distinct three-basket construct, which diversifies dynamically among basic value companies, consistent earners, and emerging franchises to potentially outperform and help mitigate volatility. Better World International Fund Invest in the Future, Including Your Own n A focused, international portfolio which fully integrates environmental, social & governance (ESG) factors into active, bottom-up security selection. n Searches for positive ESG factors, which have shown to be risk reducing and/or return enhancing, as well as ESG-momentum attributes that reflect companies on the path to ESG improvement. International Growth Fund Around the World in Search of Growth n A flexible, fundamentals-driven portfolio of international growth stocks, with the ability to invest up and down the capitalization spectrum. n Focuses on companies of any size that have attractive growth characteristics, are good businesses, and offer reasonable valuations, in our opinion. Developing World Fund A Distinctive View of Investing n Concentrates on managing the special risks associated with the emerging markets asset class and on providing strong risk-adjusted returns. n Focuses on self-funding companies that generate strong free cash flow and are not dependent on capital markets in times of stress. A Shares TIBAX C Shares TIBCX I Shares TIBIX R3 Shares TIBRX R4 Shares TIBGX R5 Shares TIBMX R6 Shares TIBOX A Shares THOAX C Shares THOCX I Shares THOIX R4 Shares THOVX R5 Shares THOFX R6 Shares THOGX A Shares TGVAX C Shares THGCX I Shares TGVIX R3 Shares TGVRX R4 Shares THVRX R5 Shares TIVRX R6 Shares TGIRX A Shares TBWAX C Shares TBWCX I Shares TBWIX A Shares TIGAX C Shares TIGCX I Shares TINGX R3 Shares TIGVX R4 Shares TINVX R5 Shares TINFX R6 Shares THGIX A Shares THDAX C Shares THDCX I Shares THDIX R5 Shares THDRX R6 Shares TDWRX
8 It s more than what we do. It s how we do it. How we How we How we re Flexible Perspective Our perspective on investment opportunities is more flexible than most, viewing a wide range of opportunities beyond conventional boundaries to find hidden value. Collaboration Collectively, we hone ideas via borderless cross-pollination for better judgment and better results. Portfolio Construction Disciplined construction guided more by our convictions than convention. CONVICTION Thorough analysis and our relativevalue framework lead to conviction in our securities selection. UNCONVENTIONAL Active management means we seek the best value for our clients rather than using conventional benchmarks as our starting point. Structured for Excellence How we think and how we invest is made possible by how we re structured. TEAM APPROACH FAR FROM THE HERD ACCESS & TRANSPARENCY Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal. Additional risks may be associated with investments outside the United States, especially in emerging markets, including currency fluctuations, illiquidity, volatility, and political and economic risks. Investments in small- and mid-capitalization companies may increase the risk of greater price fluctuations. Portfolios investing in bonds have the same interest rate, inflation, and credit risks that are associated with the underlying bonds. The value of bonds will fluctuate relative to changes in interest rates, decreasing when interest rates rise. Investments in the Funds are not FDIC insured, nor are they bank deposits or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity. The views expressed are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. This information should not be relied upon as a recommendation or investment advice and is not intended to predict the performance of any investment or market. Diversification does not assure or guarantee better performance and caot eliminate the risk of investment losses. P/E Price/Earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is a valuation ratio of a company s current share price compared to its per-share earnings. P/E equals a company s market value per share divided by earnings per share. Forecasted P/E is not intended to be a forecast of the fund s future performance. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) A country s income minus foreign investments: the total value of all goods and services produced within a country in a year, minus net income from investments in other countries. Industrial Production Index (IPI) A monthly economic indicator measuring real output in the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries, relative to a base year. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) - An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector and for the economy as a whole. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and the employment environment. A PMI of 50 or higher generally indicates that the industry is expanding. Producer Price Index (PPI) Measures the average change over time in selling price received by domestic producers for their goods and services. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged broad measure of the stock market. The MSCI Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Index consists of the following 24 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. The MSCI (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is an unmanaged index. It is a generally accepted benchmark for major overseas markets. Index weightings represent the relative capitalizations of the major overseas developed markets on a dollar adjusted basis. The index is calculated with net dividends reinvested in dollars. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Unless otherwise noted, index returns reflect the reinvestment of income dividends and capital gains, if any, but do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions or other expenses of investing. Investors may not make direct investments into any index. Before investing, carefully consider the Fund s investment goals, risks, charges, and expenses. For a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this and other information, contact your financial advisor or visit thornburg.com. Read them carefully before investing. Thornburg Securities Corporation, Distributor 5/11/ North Ridgetop Road Santa Fe, New Mexico TH3912
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