2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Debt s it! Why debt funds are as good a wealth-creation tool as any, and can also aid in nation building
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1 Debt s it! Why debt funds are as good a wealth-creation tool as any, and can also aid in nation building 1
2 Key messages Debt funds the next big driver for the Indian MF industry Macro environment, tax efficiencies and stable returns make debt funds an attractive proposition But debt has its share of risks, too A vibrant MF industry will help fund India s growth needs 2
3 $ billion in assets Rs billion in assets Debt funds the next big driver of growth But unlike in the US, participation of retail investors has much room to grow 18,000 United States 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Equity Debt Money market funds Source: ICI In the US, debt funds drove growth until the advent of 401K retirement savings plans, which invest predominantly in equity Debt funds today contribute to 47% of US fund AUM; 81% of debt investors are individuals 18,000 India 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Equity Debt Money market Total AUM Source: AMFI In India, key drivers for growth so far include the entry of private players in 1993, growth in equity markets, open architecture distribution and favourable tax regime Individual participation in debt and money market funds is low at 31% 3
4 Key messages Debt funds the next big driver for Indian MF industry Macro environment, tax efficiencies and stable returns make debt funds an attractive proposition But debt has its share of risks, too A vibrant MF industry will help fund India s growth needs 4
5 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Superior returns over comparable options 5,000 4,000 4,500 3,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 CRISIL - AMFI Income Fund Performance Index CRISIL - AMFI Gilt Fund Performance Index 1 Yr FD Index 3 Yr FD Index CRISIL AMFI Liquid Fund Performance Index CRISIL AMFI Ultra Short Fund Performance Index CRISIL AMFI Short Term Debt Fund Performance Index Savings Bank Rate Index 1 Year FD Index Index 1 year (%) 3 years (%) 5 years (%) 7 years (%) 10 years (%) CRISIL AMFI Income Fund Performance Index CRISIL AMFI Gilt Fund Performance Index CRISIL AMFI Short Term Debt Fund Performance Index Year FD Index Year FD Index CRISIL AMFI Ultra Short Fund Performance Index CRISIL AMFI Liquid Fund Performance Index Savings Bank Rate Index Returns as on May 31, 2017; Returns for period greater than one year are annualised returns; Green cell refers to highest returns in the period Source: CRISIL Research Indexation benefit an added advantage for debt funds 5
6 Returns more predictable, complement asset allocation 100% Return distribution 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Less than - 30% -30 to - 20% -20 to - 10% -10 to 0% 0 to 10% 10 to 20% 20 to 30% More than 30% Equity 6% 3% 5% 8% 17% 13% 10% 37% Debt 0% 0% 0% 0.42% 64% 35% 0% 0% Money market 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% Equity Debt Money market Parameter Equity Debt Money market Average returns 22.4% 8.5% 7.3% Standard deviation 34.8% 4.0% 1.6% Maximum drawdown -61.7% -5.8% -0.3% Equity, debt and money market represented by CRISIL-AMFI Equity fund performance index, CRISIL-AMFI Debt fund performance index and CRISIL-AMFI Money Market fund performance index respectively Analysis based on 1 year rolling returns since March 2000 Source: CRISIL Research 6
7 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Oct-16 Feb CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Fixed deposits losing sheen Interest rates and inflation are at multi-year lows, which reduces the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income favourites such as bank fixed deposits (%) (%) CPI inflation (LHS) 10-yr Gsec yield (RHS) Repo rate (RHS) Avg 3-yr FD rate (RHS) Source: RBI, CRISIL Research 7
8 (times) 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Credit quality recovering gradually FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 Credit ratio Debt-weighted credit ratio Source: CRISIL Ratings Rating action trends indicate improvement, expected to sustain In fiscal 2017, credit ratio remained largely unchanged from the previous fiscal; debt weighted credit ratio improved to a five-year high, but remained below 1 Improvement was mainly on account of firm commodity prices, stable macros, improving capital structure, and lower interest costs 8
9 Real Estate Development Apparel & Luxury Goods Steel Construction & Industrial machinery Building Products Textiles Agricultural Products Construction & Engineering Auto-ancillaries Packaged Foods Packaging Automotive Retail Pharmaceuticals 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Consumption-linked sectors continue to fare better Rating actions of top industries Investment oriented sectors Consumption & export oriented sectors Source: CRISIL Outlier due to weak demand for gold jewellery retailers Outlier due to EPC players involved in roads, transmission and distribution, and housing 9
10 Key messages Debt funds the next big driver for Indian MF industry Macro environment, tax efficiencies and stable returns make debt funds an attractive proposition But debt has its share of risks, too A vibrant MF industry will help fund India s growth needs 10
11 Risk adjusted return is a monitorable in credit investing 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Rating Minimum spread* Average spread* Maximum spread* CRISIL CDR (3 yrs) AAA 0.19% 0.90% 2.89% 0.00% AA+ 0.32% 1.47% 4.49% AA 0.73% 2.19% 4.73% AA- 0.83% 2.53% 5.18% A+ 0.93% 3.15% 7.28% A 1.11% 6.26% 7.76% A- 1.29% 5.59% 9.06% BBB+ 1.19% 5.07% 10.11% BBB 2.20% 6.72% 10.02% BBB- 3.62% 7.76% 11.13% 0.75% 4.25% 5.07% *Spreads across issuers rated by multiple agencies CDRs: Cumulative default rates Source: CRISIL Ratings, CRISIL Research Illiquidity is an added risk with lower credits 11
12 year G-sec yield movement 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Interest rate a risk for duration funds Long-term funds gain on declines, short-term funds in uptrends 11.00% 10.00% Secular decline in yields in % Flat or high interest rate period of % Sharp correction in yields in 2008^ Flat or high interest rate period of Declining yields 2014-present 9.00% 16.42% % 6.42% 8.00% 7.32% 6.01% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 19.18% 25.71% 5.13% 3.30% 5.73% 3.48% 7.90% 9.75% 10.43% 12.05% 9.26% 8.33% Income funds Gilt funds Short term debt funds Banks' fixed deposit Income, gilt and short term debt funds represented by CRISIL-AMFI Income Fund Performance Index, CRISIL-AMFI Gilt Fund Performance Index and CRISIL-AMFI Short Term Debt Fund respectively CRISIL-AMFI Short Term Debt Fund Index is available from April 2002 (inception) Banks effective fixed deposit rates represented by 3 Year and 1 Year FD Rates, for period less than a year, 1 Year FD Rate has been considered ^ Absolute Returns Returns for period more than one year are annualized Source: CRISIL Research 10 Year G-sec yield 12
13 Key messages Debt funds the next big driver for Indian MF industry Macro environment, tax efficiencies and stable returns make debt funds an attractive proposition But debt has its share of risks, too A vibrant MF industry will help fund India s growth needs 13
14 Power Roads Railways Urban infra Irrigation Telecom Towers Airports Ports Oil & Gas Metals Automobiles Cement Petrochemicals Paper Textiles Fertilisers Total Rs lakh crore 2017 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Infrastructure, industry need ~Rs 51 lakh crore in 5 years to 2022; debt funds can help Industrial Infrastructure sectors Source: CRISIL Research 14
15 Debt market development is key to economic growth Corporate debt market nascent compared with others While banks and equity markets have seen growth, the debt market, especially the corporate bond market, is subdued, despite its many virtues compared with equity Country Penetration (outstanding/gdp) as of Dec 2016 G-secs Corporate bonds US 83% 123% China 46% 20% Japan 195% 15% South Korea 52% 74% Singapore 47% 34% Malaysia 52% 43% India 43% 19% Source: SIFMA, ADB Online, CRISIL Research 15
16 Mutual funds are the best vehicles to channel retail money into debt Significant contributors to CP and CD markets today 12.0% 80% 10.0% 70% 60% 8.0% 50% 6.0% 40% 4.0% 30% 20% 2.0% 10% 0.0% Share of MFs in total outstanding debt (LHS) Share of MFs in total outstanding money market instrument (RHS) Share of MFs in total outstanding bonds (RHS) Source: RBI, SEBI, AMFI 0% 16
17 Thank you 17
18 CRISIL Privacy Notice CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and id, to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of S&P Global Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, the Company) you may find of interest. For further information, or to let us know your preferences with respect to receiving marketing materials, please visit You can view the Company s Customer Privacy at Last updated: April 2016 Disclaimer The following disclaimer applies to this presentation and any information provided regarding the information contained in this presentation given in any form (the Information). You are advised to read this disclaimer carefully before reading or making any other use of this presentation or any information contained in this presentation. The Information may be prepared based on information generally available to CRISIL Limited (which includes its group companies, together referred to as CRISIL ) and / or otherwise obtained from third party sources. CRISIL makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, made as the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reliability or correctness of the Information, opinions and conclusions, or as to the reasonableness of any assumption contained in the Information. By accessing and / or viewing the Information and to the extent permitted by law, you release CRISIL, and its directors, officers, employees, agents and associates from any liability (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage or loss or damage arising by negligence) arising as a result of the reliance by you or any other person on anything contained in or omitted from the Information. The Information may contain forward looking statements, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future performance, costs, returns, production levels or rates, prices, reserves, potential growth of CRISIL, industry growth or other trend projections or the subject matter of discussion. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and as such involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of, and are unknown to, CRISIL and its officers, employees, agents or associates. Actual results, performance or achievement may vary materially from any forward looking statements and the assumptions on which those statements are based. The Information may also contain business strategies. The success of the strategies (if any) is subject to uncertainties and contingencies beyond CRISIL s control, and no assurance can be given that the anticipated benefits from the strategies will be realized. CRISIL undertakes no obligation to revise the forward looking statements included in the Information to reflect any developments or future events or circumstances. The distribution of the Information or any part thereof in jurisdictions outside India may be restricted by law and you should observe any such restrictions. This Information does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or other advice and the Information does not take into account any investment objectives or legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or financial situation or particular needs. The Information is not a recommendation or solicitation of any sort on the subject matter. You are solely responsible for forming your own opinions and conclusions on such matters and for making your own independent assessment of the Information. You acknowledge that no responsibility or liability is accepted by CRISIL or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents or associates in relation to the Information or any part thereof including for any action taken by you on the basis of the Information; CRISIL disclaims all responsibility and liability. 18
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