Morningstar Direct SM Asset Flows Commentary: United States
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1 Morningstar Direct SM Asset Flows Commentary: United States Morningstar Research 21 March Data through. 28, U.S. Mutual Funds and Exchange- Traded Products Alina Lamy Senior Analyst Quantitative Research Investors Flee U.S. Equity for International Equity in Aftermath of Market Plunge ruary was a roller-coaster month for the U.S. stock market, with all major indexes plummeting, then floating back up, then dropping again to end the month in negative territory. This volatility was reflected in the flows, with investors running away from U.S. equity not only from active funds but from passive ones as well. Redemptions of $8.4 billion from passive U.S. equity marked the first monthly outflow for the category since April 15. Despite international markets being down last month just like the U.S. market, the international-equity category group didn t lose its stride in ruary. Instead, it dethroned taxable bond, which had enjoyed the largest flows for quite a while, and took the lead with a $22.8 billion inflow overall. The majority of this inflow went to passive funds. Inflation and interest-rate concerns caused taxable-bond flows to diminish last month to only $5.2 billion. It was the smallest inflow for taxable bond since November 16. Overall, this ruary seems to have been a record of lows, with investors shaken by the wild swings in the market and keeping their distance. January s flows across all category groups totaled $128.1 billion. In contrast, ruary s total amounted to a negative $7.7 billion. Estimated Net Flows* Active Passive U.S. Equity (17,691) (2,967) 4,29 (8,376) 198,55 3,73 Sector Equity (2,652) (18,636) 413 (3,289) 33, International Equity 6,9 54,176 2,9 15,99 217,35 1,294 Allocation (2,823) (26,71) 1,28 (145) 3,6 67 Taxable Bond 3, ,697 2,614 1, ,31 1,1 Municipal Bond (1,351) 28, , Alternative (62) 5, (433) 5, Commodities 743 2, , All Long Term (12,943) 4,999 11,476 5, ,74 6,797 Money Market 42, ,321 2,832 *Includes liquidated and merged funds.
2 Page 2 of 1 Estimated Net Flows Total (Active and Passive) U.S. Equity (26,67) (22,912) 7,993 Sector Equity (5,941) 14, International Equity 22,83 271,211 3,33 Allocation (2,968) (23,81) 1,347 Taxable Bond 5,5 373,728 3,714 Municipal Bond (1,258) 34, Alternative (495) 1, Commodities 1,3 4, All Long Term (7,691) 662,73 18,273 Money Market 42, ,321 2,832 Return (%) YTD, as of. 28 Morningstar U.S. Market Index 1.5 Morningstar Developed Markets ex-u.s. Index.1 Morningstar Emerging Markets Index 2.8! " # $ % " & ' ( ) # * ) ( +, ( - ". / # / ( 1 2 ($ Billion) Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18
3 Page 3 of 1 G H - " & ) - % "! ( - % / I! " # $ % " & ' ( ) # * ) ( +, ( - ". / # / ( 1 2 ($ Billion) Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Even without knowing about the ruary market shock, a reader could have guessed something serious had happened just by looking at the flows. The ruary bar in Exhibit 3 paints a picture that is drastically different from the rest of the graph. J $ % " & ' ( ) # * ) ( + / ( 1 2 K )! - ' ". & L % 2 " M N, ( - ". 2 ($ Billion) U.S. Equity Sector Equity International Equity Allocation Taxable Bond Municipal Bond Alternative Commodities Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17
4 Page 4 of 1 Top- and Bottom-Flowing Morningstar Categories Estimated Net Flows* Leading Active Passive Foreign Large Blend 2,258 19, ,63 126, Intermediate-Term Bond 4,717 81, ,439 83, Ultrashort Bond 2,157 3, ,88 11,8 24 Diversified Emerging Mkts 2,1 13, ,989 46, Long Government 1,366 3, ,38 1, Lagging High-Yield Bond (9,6) (34,92) 25 (2,853) (1,693) 42 Large Blend (3,38) (41,48) 824 (4,63) 144,188 2,443 Large Growth (8,39) (71,379) 1,413 1,874 22, Large Value (2,435) (58,249) 959 (2,66) 16, Health (989) (8,938) 19 (1,693) (1,88) 55 *Excludes money market. Large blend, which used to be among the top-flowing Morningstar Categories despite outflows on the active side, landed on the bottom-flowing list last month. This category is usually the beneficiary of passive flows because investors who index tend to prefer large-blend (as opposed to growth- or value-specialized) funds. With overall passive flows into U.S. equity taking a dive in ruary, large blend was the hardest hit. Foreign large blend and diversified emerging markets remained in the top five as investors continued to focus on international equity. Intermediate-term bond continued to be the most popular option in the taxable-bond category. Interestingly, the flows driven by ruary s market shock didn t seem to discriminate as much between active and passive. All top five categories experienced inflows on both the active and passive side, and all categories with the largest outflows (except large growth) experienced the same pattern. It seems investors are much more meticulous about active versus passive when it comes to depositing their money than withdrawing it. Susceptible categories experienced redemptions on both sides, and for one month it seems the outflows from active, inflows to passive pattern was, if not broken, at least disrupted. High-yield bond experienced outflows for the fifth consecutive month. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act may have prompted some of the outflows, because it is limiting the tax-deductible amount of interest expenses. High-yield debt companies will be negatively affected by this new
5 Page 5 of 1 provision because their interest expenses are now much higher, and not being able to write them off will adversely affect profitability. O H - " & ) P & Q! % " & I R & ) P % - Q S! '. I T! & / Q U ( - Q, ( - ". / # / ( 1 2 ($ Billion) Intermediate-Term Bond High-Yield Bond -15 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Top 1 U.S. Fund Families by Under Management Estimated Net Flows Active Passive Vanguard (1,535) 12, ,14 299,139 3,385 American Funds 2,223 23,726 1,557 Fidelity Investments (5,454) (36,55) 1,121 6,418 62, BlackRock/iShares 76 (17) 218 8,472 9,47 1,413 SPDR State Street Global Advisors 82 1,73 7 (25,351) 25, T. Rowe Price (3,5) (9,591) 571 (642) (6,757) 31 Dimensional Fund Advisors 2,94 3, Franklin Templeton Investments (2,512) (29,758) PIMCO , (175) 37 4 J.P. Morgan 482 (2,54) ,347 9
6 Page 6 of 1 If one still had any lingering doubt about how bad last month actually was in terms of flows, one only had to look at Vanguard: almost $33 billion in January, barely $12 billion in ruary. If the reigning provider saw such a drop, just imagine what everyone else must have endured. V, ( - ". / # / ( 1 2 H - " ( ". & R ( + M W - Q % P! /! & 2 ($ Billion) 1 1 Vanguard American Funds Fidelity BlackRock/iShares State Street T. Rowe Price Franklin Templeton DFA PIMCO JPMorgan () (4) 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 On the active side, American Funds managed to stay positive with a $2.2 billion inflow (all its funds are active). The two funds with the largest inflows were American Funds EuroPacific Growth AEPGX and American Funds American Balanced ABALX. On the other hand, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and Franklin Templeton continued to suffer outflows from their active funds. After two months of double-digit billion-dollar flows, State Street experienced an extreme $25.3 billion outflow driven by its flagship exchange-traded fund, SPDR S&P 5 SPY (discussed in more detail below).
7 Page 7 of 1 Top-Flowing Active and Passive Funds Estimated Net Flows 17 Active Funds Fidelity Series Investment Grade Bond 1,79 4,774 28,512 23,531 T. Rowe Price U.S. Treasury Long-Term 1,224 4,239 4,54 4 Oakmark International 1,149 11,832 46,862 27,826 American Funds EuroPacific Growth 1,98 6, , ,75 John Hancock Diversified Real Passive Funds ishares Core MSCI EAFE ETF 6,882 28,584 51,973 18,682 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index 6,842 5,81 681,86 541,39 Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index 5,36 32,84 338, ,67 Vanguard 5 Index 4,867 5,196 41,439 36,379 ishares Core S&P 5 ETF 4,283 39,12 154,537 97,844 Oakmark International OAKIX maintained a place on the top-flowing list in ruary. PIMCO Income PIMIX, however, was nowhere to be seen. Ironically, the active funds with the largest inflows were two fixed-income funds from providers with severe active outflows. American Funds EuroPacific Growth was the preferred choice of investors looking to diversify overseas. My colleague Gregg Wolper, who covers this fund, writes that it remains impressive: It has a very experienced management group, an appealingly low cost, a strong performance record, and a reliable parent. It retains its Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold. This fund will have down periods due if nothing else to its hefty emerging-markets stake, but it remains a strong choice. On the passive side, two ishares ETFs and three Vanguard index funds received the largest inflows in ruary. All five of these funds track U.S. or international stock indexes.
8 Page 8 of 1 Bottom-Flowing Active and Passive Funds Estimated Net Flows 17 Active Funds T. Rowe Price New Income (1,746) (2,548) 3,242 32,46 BlackRock High Yield Bond (1,373) (4,765) 15,96 19,224 PIMCO High Yield (1,273) (3,64) 8,443 11,231 Wells Fargo Ultra Short-Term Muni Inc (1,218) (1,935) 3,47 5,357 Harbor International (1,143) (11,58) 28,21 34,653 Passive Funds SPDR S&P 5 ETF (19,643) 4, ,4 235,228 Vanguard Institutional Index (4,44) (33,522) 227, ,915 ishares MSCI EAFE ETF (3,73) 3,98 79,572 63,919 ishares iboxx $ Invmt Grade Corp Bd ETF (3,237) 2,97 32,768 31,132 SPDR Blmbg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (2,232) (3,184) 8,964 12,721 Bronze-rated T. Rowe Price New Income PRCIX sustained a $1.7 billion outflow, the largest among active funds. Two active high-yield bond funds, one from BlackRock and one from PIMCO, also landed on the bottom-flowing list in ruary. Harbor International HAINX, a foreign-large-blend fund, continued its 17 outflow streak owing to its opportunistic misfires, middling results, and rising expenses, in the words of senior analyst Kevin McDevitt. Passive funds with large outflows included Vanguard Institutional Index VINIX, two ishares ETFs, and a SPDR high-yield bond ETF. Their outflows, however, were nowhere near the $19.6 billion that SPDR S&P 5 SPY bled last month. SPY, State Street s flagship ETF for the U.S. market, received the largest flows in December and January. The large December inflow is a recurring trend each year as active managers rebalance their holdings and use this ETF to temporarily store cash. However, the large January inflow was surprising because it went against the trend. SPY has a history of severe outflows at the beginning of the year, because it is used frequently by active mutual fund investors and hedge funds as a holding when they want to maintain equity exposure. When fund managers reallocate their portfolios at the end of the year by selling stocks, they may not know what new stocks they plan to purchase. These managers
9 Page 9 of 1 then purchase SPY so their funds don't exhibit large tracking error while they figure out their plans. In January, these managers sell SPY and buy individual stocks for their portfolios. As Exhibit 6 illustrates, over the past five years (except in 15), there has been a pattern of very large inflows in December and large outflows in January for SPDR S&P 5 ETF. This year, the pattern was delayed by a month. SPY received a significant positive flow in January because of U.S. stocks solid January return. The large outflow occurred in ruary instead of in January, as investors shifted allocations from U.S. to international equity. X Flows for SPDR S&P 5 at Year-End ($ Billion) NovDecJan NovDecJan NovDecJan NovDecJan NovDecJan NovDecJan
10 Page 1 of 1 Note: The figures in this report were compiled on Mar. 12,, and reflect only the funds that had reported net assets by that date. The figures in both the commentary and the extended tables are survivorship-bias-free. This report includes both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, but not funds of funds unless specifically stated. It does not include Collective Investment Trusts (CITs) or separate accounts. Important methodology note: Morningstar computes flows using the approach that is standard in the industry: Estimated net flow is the change in assets not explained by the performance of the fund. Our method assumes that flows occur uniformly over the course of the month. Adjustments for mergers are performed automatically. When liquidated funds are included, the final assets of the fund are counted as outflows. Reinvested dividends are not counted as inflows. We use fund-level reinvestment rates to improve accuracy in this respect. We make ad hoc adjustments for unusual corporate actions such as reverse share splits, and we overwrite our estimates with actual flows if managers are willing to provide the data to us. Please click here for a full explanation of our methodology. 22 West Washington Street Chicago, IL 662 USA Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. To order reprints, call To license the research, call
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