Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 Chart of the Week Talking Points Among equities, large-caps outperformed small-caps, and growth stocks outperformed valueoriented issues. Domestic stocks outperformed international equities. Developed markets outperformed emerging market stocks. Treasury prices were lower this week. The yield on the 10-year T- note rose modestly. Commodity prices were mixed on the week. Crude oil and metals declined, but grains rallied. Weekly Highlights Domestic stock prices rebounded sharply this week. After a volatile start to October, stocks surged, with the S&P 500 posting its largest weekly gain since January Driving this week s action was a renewed focus on fundamentals, as third quarter earnings have surpassed expectations. According to Bloomberg, with slightly less than half of the S&P 500 companies reporting so far, 79% have exceeded earnings forecasts, and 61% have beaten sales estimates. Global markets also gained ground on the week. World markets followed the lead of the U.S., generating significant gains. European stock indices closed with their largest gain of the year, even as a report indicated 25 lending institutions would fail a financial health check. Bucking the trend were Chinese indices, which suffered their biggest weekly decline in four months as the number of IPOs surged. The dollar was higher this week against a basket of currencies. Among economic data released this week, sales of existing homes increased to a one-year high in September; sales of new homes were little changed from August; the consumer price index (CPI) rose only slightly in the latest month; China s gross domestic product grew slightly more than expected in the third quarter; and initial jobless claims in the latest week were in line with expectations. Treasury prices declined for the week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose for the first time in six weeks. Commodity indices were mixed on the week. Crude oil and metals declined, but grains advanced this week.

2 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 MARKET DASHBOARD Last Price Change % Chg. YTD % Last Price Change % Chg. YTD % S&P 500 1, % 5.5% Russell Global EM 3, % -1.2% Dow Industrials 16, % 0.6% 10-Year US Treas bps NM NM Nasdaq 4, % 6.6% DJ UBS Comm. Idx % -6.9% Russell , % -4.1% Gold $1, $ % 2.6% Euro Stoxx % -0.4% Crude Oil $ $ % -12.7% Shanghai Composite 2, % 8.8% Dollar % 7.1% Russell Global 1, % -0.5% VIX % 20.5% ; % change is based on price. S&P 500 : Trailing 180 Days 2050 One Week YTD Value Growth Value Growth L 2.93% 3.31% 3.68% 4.17% 5.34% 6.52% % 3.74% 3.88% 6.79% 5.27% 3.94% /28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7 7/21 8/4 8/18 9/1 9/15 9/29 10/13 S 2.84% 3.16% 3.48% -4.30% -4.05% -3.79% Sector Performance: S&P/Global Industry Classification Sectors (GICS) % Wgt in S&P 500 Week % Chg. YTD % Chg. Consumer Discretionary % -0.6% Consumer Staples % 5.9% Energy % -3.3% Financials % 4.6% Health Care % 15.9% Industrials % 1.3% Information Technology % 10.0% Materials % 3.5% Telecom Services % -0.4% Utilities % 16.1% VIX : Trailing 180 Days 10 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Wealth Growth of $1: Trailing 24 Months S&P 500 Dow Industrials Small Cap EAFE Emerging Mkts. 0.7 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 2

3 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS A Macro View Mid-Term Election Years and Small Cap Underperformance Much has been made of the poor performance of small caps relative to large caps this year. The Russell 2000 of small cap stocks has underperformed the Russell 1000 of large cap stocks by 10.6% (~1060 basis points) on a year-to-date basis through 10/23/14. A significant amount, to be sure, and the year is not Figure 1: yet over. Historically, the average small cap underperformance has been 8.6%. However, while the underperformance of small caps has hurt portfolios with an overweight to the asset class, the underperformance typically occurs in years when the overall market s performance is positive. Only once (in 1990) in the past 34 years have small caps underperformed when the S&P 500 declined for the year. More interesting to us is analyzing what happens in the years following the underperformance by small caps. Since 1979, small caps have underperformed 15 times (not including 2014) (Figure 1). In the year following that underperformance, the S&P 500 has risen 13 times, with an average total return of +17.6% (Figure 2). An additional dimension in the analysis is the fact that this is a mid-term election year. Encouragingly, in the past 34 years, irrespective of the party in power, the S&P 500 has posted a positive return in the year following a mid-term election every time, with an average gain of 19.0% (Figure 3). Figure 2: Figure 3: Combining the small cap underperformance and mid-term election year effects, we find that small caps have underperformed in mid-term election years four times since In each instance, the S&P 500 has risen the following year, generating an average return of 23.4% (Figure 4). Figure 4: While only time will tell what may happen in 2015, history indicates the market could potentially enjoy a favorable year. Brandon Thomas Chief Investment Officer 3

4 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 THIS WEEK IN THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS Consumer Price -Trailing 12 Mos. 2.5 Consumer Price -Trailing 12 Mos. 0.4 % Change Year/Year Monthly % Chg Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 0 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug Headline CPI Core CPI Millions (SAAR) Existing Home Sales (Annualized) - Trailing 12 Mos Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Thousands New Home Sales - Trailing 12 Mos /31 12/31 2/28 4/30 6/30 8/31 Thousands Initial Jobless Claims-Trailing 12 Wks /1 8/15 8/29 9/12 9/26 10/10 % Increase/Decrease China Industrial Prod. YoY - Trailing 12 Mos Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 4

5 EUROZONE SELECTED EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN YIELD PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % Germany 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM France 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Greece 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Ireland 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Italy 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Portugal 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Spain 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Netherlands 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Belgium 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM U.K. 10-Yr. Govt bps NM NM Basis points (bps) 1.20 Germany 10-Year Government Bond Yield 2.8 Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield % 0.90 % /28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/ /28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield /28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 % % Greece 10-Year Government Bond Yield /28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 5

6 EQUITIES WORLD MARKET PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % S&P 500 1, % 5.54% Swiss Market 8, % 3.92% Dow Industrials 16, % 0.61% CAC 40 (France) 4, % -3.84% Nasdaq Composite 4, % 6.61% DAX (Germany) 8, % -5.85% Russell Global 1, % -0.5% Irish Overall 4, % 2.89% Russell Global EM 3, % -1.2% Nikkei , % -6.14% S&P/TSX (Canada) 14, % 6.35% Hang Seng 23, % -0.02% Mexico IPC 43, % 2.26% Shanghai Composite 2, % 8.80% Brazil Bovespa 51, % -0.60% Kospi (S. Korea) 1, % -4.26% Euro Stoxx % -0.38% Taiwan Taiex 8, % 0.40% FTSE 100 6, % -5.30% Tel Aviv 25 1, % 8.76% IBEX 35 (Spain) 10, % 3.95% MICEX (Russia) 1, % -8.49% ; % change is based on price. Dow Jones Industrial Average -Trailing 90 Days 17,400 17,200 17,000 16,800 16,600 16,400 16,200 16,000 15,800 15,600 15,400 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 Nasdaq Composite-Trailing 90 Days 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 Shanghai Composite -Trailing 90 Days 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 Euro Stoxx -Trailing 90 Days /25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 6

7 EQUITIES EMERGING AND FRONTIER MARKETS EMERGING AND FRONTIER MARKET PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % Mexico IPC 43, % 2.3% Hang Seng 23, % 0.0% Brazil (Bovespa ) 51, % -0.6% India (Sensex 30) 26, % 26.8% MICEX (Russia) 1, % -8.5% Malaysia (KLCI ) 1, % -2.6% Czech Republic (Prague) % -4.0% Singapore (Straits Times ) 3, % 1.7% Turkey (Istanbul) 79, % 16.9% Thailand (SET ) 1, % 18.6% Egypt (Hermes ) % 24.5% Indonesia (Jakarta) 5, % 18.7% Kenya (Nairobi 20 ) 5, % 6.7% Pakistan (Karachi KSE 100) 30, % 19.1% Saudi Arabia (TASI ) 10, % 19.1% Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) % 17.2% Lebanon (Beirut BLOM ) 1, % 0.9% Sri Lanka (Colombo) 7, % 22.0% Palestine % -6.6% Cambodia (Laos) 1, % 14.3% ; % change is based on price. 67,000 Brazil (Bovespa )-Trailing 90 Days 27,500 India (Sensex )-Trailing 90 Days 62,000 27,000 26,500 57,000 52,000 26,000 25,500 25,000 47,000 24,500 42,000 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 24,000 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 1,000 Egypt (Hermes )-Trailing 90 Days 3,400 Singapore (Straits Times )-Trailing 90 Days 900 3,350 3, , , ,150 3, , /27 8/10 8/24 9/7 9/21 10/5 10/19 3,000 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 7

8 INTEREST RATES SELECTED INTEREST RATES Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % 2-Yr. U.S. Treasury 0.39% 0 bps NM NM Prime Rate 3.25% 0.00 NM NM 5-Yr. U.S. Treasury 1.50% 6 bps NM NM Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.00 NM NM 10-Yr. U.S. Treasury 2.27% 5 bps NM NM Discount Rate 0.75% 0.00 NM NM 30-Yr. U.S. Treasury 3.05% 5 bps NM NM LIBOR (3 Mo.) 0.23% 0 bps NM NM German 10-Yr. Govt. 0.88% -2 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 Muni 3.76% 17 bps NM NM France 10-Yr. 1.28% 1 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 G.O. 3.90% NA NM NM Italy 10-Yr. 2.50% -1 bps NM NM Bond Buyer 40 Rev. 4.49% NA NM NM Fed 5-Yr Fwd BE Inf. 2.21% -2 bps NM NM YIELD CURVES 4.00 US Treasury Actives Curve US Treasury Actives Curve USD US Industrial (BB) BFV Cur USD Composite (BBB) BFV Curve M 1Y 3Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y Year Treasury Yield - Trailing 180 Days 1.60 BBB/Baa- 10-Yr Treas. Spread Rising Line = Risk Aversion Yield %

9 CURRENCIES SELECTED CURRENCY PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % Dollar % 7.09% Chinese Yuan % -1.02% Euro % -7.81% Swiss Franc % -6.19% Japanese Yen % -2.54% New Zealand Dollar % -4.35% British Pound % -3.01% Brazilian Real % -5.21% Canadian Dollar % -5.21% Mexican Peso % -3.68% 88 U.S. Dollar - Trailing Six Months 1.45 Euro - U.S. Dollars per Euro Chinese yuan - yuan per U.S. Dollar Japanese yen - Yen per U.S. Dollar

10 COMMODITIES SELECTED COMMODITY MARKET PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % DJ UBS Comm. Idx % -6.93% Platinum Spot $1, $ % -8.38% Rogers Int. Comm. Idx % -9.60% Corn % % Crude Oil $ $ % % Wheat % % Natural Gas $3.62 -$ % % Soybeans % % Gasoline ($/Gal.) $3.07 -$ % -7.55% Sugar % -8.17% Heating Oil % % Orange Juice % -4.34% Gold Spot $1, $ % 2.56% Aluminum 1, % 10.43% Silver Spot $ $ % % Copper 6, % -9.05% ; % change is based on price. 105 Crude Oil - Light Crude ($ per barrel) 1,400 Gold - Spot gold price ($ per ounce) 100 1,350 $ per barrel $ per ounce 1,300 1,250 1, , ,100 7,400 Copper 570 Corn - Active Contract 7, ,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 $ per bushel ,000 4/28 5/28 6/27 7/27 8/26 9/

11 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS SELECTED ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT INDEX PERFORMANCE Last Change % Chg. YTD % Last Change % Chg. YTD % HFRX Global Hedge Fund % -1.00% HFRX Distressed % 0.25% HFRX Equity Market Neutral % 2.84% HFRX Merger Arbitrage % 0.61% HFRX Equity Hedge % -1.21% HFRX Convertible Arbitrage % -2.77% HFRX Event-Driven % -3.52% HFRX Macro CTA % 1.95% HFRX Absolute Return % 0.98% IQ Fixed Income Beta Arb % 5.78% ; % change is based on price. HFRX Global Hedge Fund - Trailing 90 Days 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 7/28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 HFRX Equity Hedge - Trailing 90 Days 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 1,150 1,140 1,130 1,120 1,110 1,100 7/28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/ HFRX Equity Market Neutral - Trailing 90 Days 1,390 IQ Fixed Income Beta Arb - Trailing 90 Days 980 1,385 1, , /28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 1,370 1,365 1,360 1,355 1,350 1,345 7/28 8/11 8/25 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 11

12 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION S&P 500/MSCI EAFE - Trailing 180 Days S&P 500/MSCI EM - Trailing 180 Days MSCI EAFE/MSCI EM - Trailing 180 Days Large Cap/Small Cap - Trailing 180 Days Growth/Value - Trailing 180 Days

13 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION (cont d.) Info Tech/S&P Trailing 180 Days Inv. Grade Bonds/Int. Govt. Bonds - Trailing 180 Days High Yield Bonds/Int. Govt. Bonds - Trailing 180 Days High Yield/Inv. Grade Bonds - Trailing 180 Days

14 PMC Weekly Market Review October 24, 2014 Equity Domestic Equity Int'l. Equity Large Cap (R200) Small Cap (R2000) WEEKLY ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE (Prior 12 weeks ending Thursday) 8/7 8/14 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/ % 2.36% 1.89% 0.18% -0.01% 0.05% 0.89% -2.18% -0.96% -0.87% -3.63% 4.70% -0.03% 2.11% 1.46% 0.51% 0.11% 0.44% -1.11% -4.23% -1.25% -2.59% 1.67% 2.82% MSCI EAFE -2.57% 1.16% 1.02% -0.08% 0.50% -1.49% -0.03% -1.94% -3.58% -0.74% -4.01% 3.61% MSCI Em. Mkts % 2.01% 0.89% 0.47% 1.22% -2.80% -1.22% -2.91% -3.23% 1.59% -3.74% 1.14% Fixed Income BarCap Agg. (AGG) High Yield (JNK) 0.38% 0.26% -0.04% 0.40% -0.54% -0.53% -0.32% 0.53% 0.26% 0.51% 0.69% -0.40% -0.07% 1.55% 0.44% 0.10% -0.94% -0.83% 0.07% -1.30% -0.15% -0.57% -0.53% 1.61% Commodities DJ UBS -0.14% -1.63% -0.13% 0.67% -1.31% -2.44% -0.94% -1.16% -0.73% 0.52% -1.08% -0.26% Alternatives Hedge Funds (HFRX Global) -0.77% 0.79% 0.66% 0.23% 0.38% -0.12% -0.05% -0.70% -0.86% -0.88% -1.66% 1.15% Asset Allocation 60/40* -0.68% 1.36% 0.92% 0.26% -0.09% -0.53% -0.02% -1.40% -1.03% -0.40% -1.49% 2.23% 48/32/20 (w/alts.)** -0.69% 1.24% 0.87% 0.25% 0.00% -0.45% -0.02% -1.26% -1.00% -0.50% -1.53% 2.02% ; *60/40 portfolio = 30% Large Cap/10% Small Cap/15% EAFE/5% Emerging Markets/35% BarCap Agg./5% High Yield. **48/32/20 portfolio = 24% Large Cap/8% Small Cap/12% EAFE/4% Emerging Markets/28% BarCap Agg./4% High Yield/20% HFRX Global. Large Cap Core Large Cap Growth Large Cap Value Mid Cap Core RELATIVE STRENGTH MATRIX (BASED ON 30-DAY RSI) Mid Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Small Cap Small Cap Int'l. Growth Value Core Growth Value Developed Emerging Markets REITs Comm. Int. Bond High Yield Large Cap Core Large Cap Growth Large Cap Value Mid Cap Core Mid Cap Growth Mid Cap Value Small Cap Core Small Cap Growth Small Cap Value Int'l. Developed Emerging Markets REITs Commodities Int. Bond High Yield The Relative Strength Matrix provides an indication of how the various asset classes have performed relative to one another over the past 30 days. A number greater than 1.0 indicates that the asset class in the far left column has outperformed the corresponding asset class in the top row over the past 30 days. A number below 1.0 means the asset class on the left has underperformed the asset class at the top. The green shading indicates outperformance, and the red shading indicates underperformance. 14

15 INDEX OVERVIEW The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index comprised of 500 widely held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measure the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market. The MSCI EAFE represents 21 developed markets outside of North America. The MSCI EAFE Growth is an unmanaged index considered representative of growth stocks of Europe, Australasia and the Far East. The MSCI EAFE Value is an unmanaged index considered representative of value stocks of Europe, Australasia and the Far East. The MSCI Emerging Markets is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The MSCI Europe is an unmanaged index considered representative of stocks of developed European countries. The MSCI Pacific is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in the Pacific region. The Barclays US Credit is an unmanaged index considered representative of publicly issued, SEC-registered US corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond is a market capitalization-weighted index of investment-grade, fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities, with maturities of at least one year. The Barclays US Corporate High Yield covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. The index may include emerging market debt. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond is an unmanaged index comprised of investment-grade, fixed-rate municipal securities representative of the tax-exempt bond market in general. The Barclays US Treasury Total Return is an unmanaged index of public obligations of the US Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more. The Citigroup World Government Bond is a market capitalization weighted bond index consisting of the government bond markets of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The DJ-UBS Commodity Total Return SM measures the collateralized returns from a basket of 19 commodity futures contracts representing the energy, precious metals, industrial metals, grains, softs and livestock sectors. The Russell 1000 is a market capitalization-weighted benchmark index made up of the 1000 largest U.S. companies in the Russell The Russell 1000 Growth is an unmanaged index considered representative of large-cap growth stocks. The Russell 1000 Value is an unmanaged index considered representative of large-cap value stocks. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Growth is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap growth stocks. The Russell 2000 Value is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap value stocks. The Russell 3000 is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market. The Russell Midcap is a subset of the Russell It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap Growth is an unmanaged index considered representative of mid-cap growth stocks. The Russell Midcap Value is an unmanaged index considered representative of mid-cap value stocks. The HFRX Indices are a series of benchmarks of hedge fund industry performance which are engineered to achieve representative performance of a larger universe of hedge fund strategies. Hedge Fund Research, Inc. employs the HFRX Methodology (UCITS compliant), a proprietary and highly quantitative process by which hedge funds are selected as constituents for the HFRX Indices. The ISM Non-Manufacturing is an index based on surveys of more than 400 nonmanufacturing firms' purchasing and supply executives, within 60 sectors across the nation, by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Non- Manufacturing tracks economic data, like the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity. A composite diffusion index is created based on the data from these surveys that monitors economic conditions of the nation. The ISM Manufacturing is an index based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing monitors employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys. The Consumer Price (CPI) measures the change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate is a measurement of the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. Basis Point(s) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in a financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The CBOE Volatility (VIX) is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility that is calculated by using real-time S&P 500 option bid/ask quotes. The uses nearby and second nearby options with at least 8 days left to expiration and then weights them to yield a constant, 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500. The MSCI World ex-u.s. - captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets DM countries*--excluding the United States. With 1,002 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. (* DM countries include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.) The MSCI Japan - is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market. With 320 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. The Barclays Global Aggregate ex-u.s. - is a market capitalization-weighted index, meaning the securities in the index are weighted according to the market size of each bond type. Most U.S. traded investment grade bonds are represented. Municipal bonds, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are excluded, due to tax treatment issues. The index includes Treasury securities, Government agency bonds, Mortgage-backed bonds, Corporate bonds, and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MCSI) uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. A separately managed account (SMA) is an individual managed investment account offered typically by a brokerage firm through one of their brokers or financial consultants and managed by independent investment management firms (often called money managers for short) and have varying fee structures. An open-end index fund continuously issues and redeems shares based on investor demand. As an index fund, its investment objective is to duplicate the performance of the index it uses as a benchmark. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Latin America is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets in Latin America. 15

16 The information, analysis, and opinions expressed herein are for general and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this weekly review is intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. All investments carry a certain risk, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. An investor may experience loss of principal. Investment decisions should always be made based on the investor s specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The asset classes and/or investment strategies described may not be suitable for all investors and investors should consult with an investment advisor to determine the appropriate investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information obtained from third party sources are believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Envestnet PMC makes no representation regarding the accuracy or completeness of information provided herein. All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Investments in smaller companies carry greater risk than is customarily associated with larger companies for various reasons such as volatility of earnings and prospects, higher failure rates, and limited markets, product lines or financial resources. Investing overseas involves special risks, including the volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. Income (bond) securities are subject to interest rate risk, which is the risk that debt securities in a portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are subject to risks similar to those of stocks, such as market risk. Investing in ETFs may bear indirect fees and expenses charged by ETFs in addition to its direct fees and expenses, as well as indirectly bearing the principal risks of those ETFs. ETFs may trade at a discount to their net asset value and are subject to the market fluctuations of their underlying investments. Investing in commodities can be volatile and can suffer from periods of prolonged decline in value and may not be suitable for all investors. Performance is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific investment product or portfolio. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Alternative Investments may have complex terms and features that are not easily understood and are not suitable for all investors. You should conduct your own due diligence to ensure you understand the features of the product before investing. Alternative investment strategies may employ a variety of hedging techniques and non-traditional instruments such as inverse and leveraged products. Certain hedging techniques include matched combinations that neutralize or offset individual risks such as merger arbitrage, long/short equity, convertible bond arbitrage and fixed-income arbitrage. Leveraged products are those that employ financial derivatives and debt to try to achieve a multiple (for example two or three times) of the return or inverse return of a stated index or benchmark over the course of a single day. Inverse products utilize short selling, derivatives trading, and other leveraged investment techniques, such as futures trading to achieve their objectives, mainly to track the inverse of their benchmarks. As with all investments, there is no assurance that any investment strategies will achieve their objectives or protect against losses. 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