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1 CREDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L. Issue No. 596 April 21 st April 27 th 2018 Economic Research Unit Credit Libanais Headquarters Adlieh Beirut, Lebanon Tel Fax

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LEBANON NEWS ECONOMIC INSIGHTS > LEBANON RANKS 2 ND REGIONALLY IN TERMS OF REMITTANCE FLOWS IN > LEBANON 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN THE 2018 WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX 2 > MINISTRY OF FINANCE PUBLISHES AN OVERVIEW OF THE BUDGET LAW FOR THE YEAR > BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT CONTRACTS TO $2.61 BILLION BY FEBRUARY > ANNUAL INFLATION IN LEBANON AT 5.35% IN MARCH LEBANON RANKS 2 ND REGIONALLY IN TERMS OF REMITTANCE FLOWS IN 2017 The World Bank estimated remittance flows to Lebanon at $8.0 billion in 2017 (compared to a previously estimated figure of $7.3 billion for 2016), positioning the country 2 nd in the MENA region in terms of size of remittance inflows. CORPORATE NEWS > BANK AUDI REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $ MILLION IN Q > BYBLOS BANK REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $27.85 MILLION IN Q > BANK BEMO REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $4 MILLION IN Q > BLC BANK REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $10.37 MILLION IN Q > MOODY S ASSIGNS A B3 RATING TO THE PLANNED CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUANCE BY BLOM BANK 10 MONETARY PERFORMANCE > MONETARY AGGREGATES 11 > MONEY MARKETS 11 LEBANESE EQUITIES > LEBANESE EQUITIES & CREDIT LIBANAIS INDICES 12 LEBANON'S ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS 14 LEBANON'S RATINGS 15 LEBANON 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN THE 2018 WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX Lebanon ranked 2 nd in the region and 100 th in the world in RSF s 2018 World Press Freedom Index with a score of 31.08, compared to a score 33.01, an international ranking of 99, and the same regional ranking in the 2017 index. MINISTRY OF FINANCE PUBLISHES AN OVERVIEW OF THE BUDGET LAW FOR THE YEAR 2018 The 2018 budget law projected total expenditures at LBP 23,891 billion ($15.85 billion), while expecting total revenues to reach LBP 18,687 billion ($12.40 billion), translating into a target budget deficit of LBP 5,204 billion ($3.45 billion), which would rise to LBP 7,304 billion ($4.85 billion) when transfers to EDL are accounted for. BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT CONTRACTS TO $2.61 BILLION BY FEBRUARY 2018 Lebanon s balance of trade deficit contracted by $187 million on an annual basis to just above $2.60 billion by February 2018, down from around $2.80 billion a year before. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

3 SYNOPSIS OF TERMS "BDL" "ABL" "MOF" "BOP" "IMF" "Moody's" "BSE" "GDRs" "M1" "M2" "M3" "M4" "CPI" "PPI" "CLASI" "CLFI" "CLCI" EIU EOY "P/E" "P/BV" "YTD" "YTD Price Performance" "LBP" "USD" "Y-O-Y" "GDP" "MENA" Banque Du Liban Association of Banks in Lebanon The Lebanese Ministry of Finance Balance of Payment The International Monetary Fund Moody's Investors Service Beirut Stock Exchange Global Depositary Receipts Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP M1 + Other Deposits in LBP M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies M3+ Treasury Bills Held by Non-Banking System Including Accrued Interests Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Economist Intelligence Unit End of Year Price to Earnings Multiple Price to Book Multiple Year to Date Yield to Date Price Appreciation The Lebanese Pound The United States Dollar Year-on-Year Gross Domestic Product Middle East and North Africa ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

4 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON RANKS 2 ND REGIONALLY IN TERMS OF REMITTANCE FLOWS IN 2017 According to the World Bank s Migration and Development Brief 29 report, global remittance flows are expected to maintain their upturn during the upcoming couple of years, albeit at a gradually slowing pace. In fact, the World Bank estimated a 7.0% hike in global remittance flows in the year 2017 to $613 billion, and anticipated said flows to expand by 4.6% in 2018 to $642 billion and by 3.9% in 2019 to $667 billion. The World Bank attributed its outlook for global remittance flows to the solid economic activity across the United States, the European Union, and the Russian Federation, together with the increase in international hydrocarbon prices and the stronger Euro currency and Russian Rubble against the greenback. The report cited, however, a set of challenges that might cripple remittance flows across the globe over the coming period, of which the emergence of more stringent immigration policies in several remittance-sending nations, along with other structural barriers such as the swelling regulatory requirements imposed on money transfer operators. From another standpoint, the bulk (about 75.55%) of global remittance flows is likely to be channelled to low and middle income countries (LMICs) in the year 2018, as has been the case since at least the year In details, the World Bank foresaw that the majority of these flows will be directed to the East Asia & Pacific ($135 billion; <27.84%>) and the South Asia ($120 billion; <24.74%>) regions. In this context, remittances to LMICs seem to follow a similar pattern to that of global remittances, soaring by 8.5% in 2017 to $466 billion, then expectedly increasing by 4.1% in 2018 to $485 billion and by 3.7% in 2019 to $503 billion. On a regional basis, the World Bank estimated that remittance flows to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region rallied by 9.3% in 2017 to $53 billion and will later widen by 4.4% in 2018 to $56 billion and by 3.3% in 2019 to $57 billion. Remittance flows to the MENA region should accordingly represent around 11.55% of remittance flows to developing countries and 8.72% of global remittance flows in According to the report, this rosy outlook can be justified by the projected rebound in economic growth across the GCC region amid some improvements on the public finances front, an increase in infrastructure-related investments, and the adoption of reforms to diversify the related countries economies away from the oil sector. Remittance Flows (USD Billion) p 2018f 2019f World Low and Middle Income Countries East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Developing Countries Source: World Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit As far as Lebanon is concerned, the report estimated remittance flows to Lebanon at $8.0 billion for 2017 (compared to a previously estimated figure of $7.3 billion for 2016), positioning the country 2 nd in the MENA region in terms of size of remittance inflows, just behind Egypt ($20.0 billion). Similarly, Lebanon ranked 2 nd in the MENA region in terms of remittance contribution to GDP, standing at 15.1% in 2017 (compared to a previous estimation of 14.1% for 2016), only outpaced by the West Bank & Gaza (15.3% of GDP). The World Bank also commented that the average cost of sending remittances to Lebanon from the United States, Germany, Australia, and the United Kingdom remains the most expensive among its regional peers, in spite of having somewhat declined during the past few quarters. $ Billion Projected Remittance Flows in the MENA Region by Country in Projected Remittance Flows as a % of GDP by Country in the MENA Region in % 15.3% 15.1% 13.1% 14.0% 10.9% 12.0% 10.0% 6.7% 8.0% 6.4% 4.8% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: World Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: World Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: WORLD BANK, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 1

5 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN THE 2018 WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX Reporters Without Borders (RSF) recently issued the 2018 World Press Freedom Index in which it ranked 180 countries across the globe according to their press freedom levels. More particularly, countries were assigned scores ranging from 0 to 100, with 0 being the best possible score and 100 the worst. In this vein, RSF revealed a growing worldwide resentment towards the media that is not limited to authoritarian regimes, since assaults on the media and the unjustified incarceration of journalists are becoming more common in all parts of the globe. It is worth noting that 76 out of the 180 covered countries (about 42%) saw their press freedom index scores drop during the past year, while 8 countries (around 4%) maintained the same score and 96 countries (circa 53%) reported an improvement in the index. In detail, RSF unveiled that Europe continued to enjoy the freest media, yet witnessed the steepest regional deterioration in press freedom, marked by the assassination of two journalists over the past year, in addition to increasing death threats and verbal attacks received by journalists. The region still hosted the world s top performers though, with Norway topping the list of countries for the second consecutive year with a score of Sweden came second in the world with an index score of 8.31, followed by the Netherlands (with a score of 10.01), Finland (with a score of 10.26), and Switzerland (with a score of 11.27). North America, however, reported a mixed performance according to RSF, with the United States losing ground in terms of press freedom throughout the first year of President Trump s mandate, while Canada registered some progress amid the implementation of several measures that protect the privacy of journalists sources. RSF similarly pointed to mixed press freedom results in Latin America, as new laws and regulations that foster such freedom were promulgated in some countries, while in others, the media remained controlled by those in power, and especially in authoritarian regimes. This is also the case in Africa, where a large divergence prevails amongst countries, some of which enjoying a regulatory framework that nurtures press freedom (e.g. Ghana and Namibia, which ranked 23 rd and 26 th respectively in the index), while others have absolutely no freedom in that area (e.g. Eritrea and Djibouti, which ranked 179 th and 173 rd respectively in the index). As for the Asia-Pacific region, several countries are shifting towards the Chinese prototype under which the media is controlled by the state, posing a threat to democracy. The Middle East region remained the worst performer in terms of press freedom and was considered as one of the riskiest and most challenging regions for journalists, particularly in light of the ongoing armed clashes, terrorist activities and attacks against the media, in addition to the swelling online surveillance and censorship. In fact, and according to RSF, many journalists were killed across the Middle East in the year 2017 and many others are still held hostage to-date. Country-wise, Tunisia ranked first in the region for the third year in a row and 97 th in the world in the 2018 press freedom index, recording a score of Lebanon ranked 2 nd amongst its Middle Eastern peers and 100 th in the world with a press freedom score of (compared to a score 33.01, an international ranking of 99, and the same regional ranking in the 2017 index), followed by Kuwait (global rank: 105; score: 31.91) and Qatar (global rank: 125; score: 40.16), only to name a few. Country 2018 World Press Freedom Index Global Global Global Score Score Rank Global Rank 2017 MENA Rank 2018 Norway Sweden Netherlands Finland Switzerland Tunisia Lebanon Kuwait Qatar Oman U.A.E Jordan Palestine Morocco Algeria Iraq Egypt Libya Bahrain Yemen Saudi Arabia Syria Source: Reporters Without Borders, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: REPORTERS WITHOUT BORDERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2

6 LEBANON NEWS MINISTRY OF FINANCE PUBLISHES AN OVERVIEW OF THE BUDGET LAW FOR THE YEAR 2018 The Ministry of Finance in collaboration with Basil Fuleihan Institute of Finance has recently released an overview of Lebanon s budget law for the year 2018, which was approved by the parliament during the first week of April and which is the country s second after 12 years of absence ( ). The published report provided a detailed explanation concerning the budget and its key components. Major figures featured in the budget came as follows: total expenditures were projected at LBP 23,891 billion ($15.85 billion), noting that said figure does not include transfers to Electricité du Liban (EDL) estimated at LBP 2,100 billion ($1.39 billion), while total revenues were budgeted at LBP 18,687 billion ($12.40 billion), translating into a target budget deficit of LBP 5,204 billion ($3.45 billion) for 2018 (which would rise to LBP 7,304 billion ($4.85 billion) when transfers to EDL are accounted for). Moreover, the proposed budget aims at reducing the deficit-to-gdp ratio to 8.36% in 2018, 7.90% in 2019, and 7.14% in In detail, total expenditures mainly cover the areas of public salaries and other personnel costs (LBP 10,108 billion), debt servicing (LBP 8,362 billion), and capital expenditures (LBP 2,171 billion). Breakdown of Total Expenditures in the Budget Law for the Year 2018 Capital Expenditures 9% Other 14% Public Salaries and Other Personal Costs 42% Debt Servicing 35% Also on the expenditures front, and always according to the report, the ratified budget for the year 2018 saw the allocation of the largest sub-budgets in each of the Ministry of National Defense (LBP 3,199 billion), LBP 272 billion of which will be channeled to the Lebanese Army, particularly for its training and supplies, the Ministry of Education and Higher Education (LBP 2,092 billion), and the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (LBP 1,670 billion). In addition, LBP 395 billion will be allocated to infrastructure and roads maintenance, expansion, or building, LBP 98 billion for pollution treatment in the Litani River, and LBP 75 billion for expanding and improving the telecommunications network and its complements. Furthermore, the report highlighted several measures in the 2018 budget law that are to limit expenses, some of which are: a 20% cut in the administrative costs of all public institutions and the approval of a plan to establish state-owned buildings for public institutions and administrations in order to minimize/eliminate the rental costs of buildings/offices they currently occupy. On the revenues front, the former can be broken down into tax revenues (totaling LBP 14,276 billion) consisting of value added tax (LBP 3,958 billion), tax on profits (LBP 1,493 billion), tax on interest income (LBP 1,301 billion), real estate registration fees (LBP 886 billion), tariffs (LBP 863 billion), and taxes on salaries and wages (LBP 780 billion), and non-tax revenues (totaling LBP 4,410 billion) mainly consisting of telecom profits (LBP 2,071 billion). Breakdown of Total Revenues in the Budget Law for the Year 2018 Other 39% Value Added Tax 21% Taxes on Salaries & Wages 4% Tax on Interest Income 7% Tariffs 5% Telecom Revenues 11% Tax on Profits 8% Real Estate Registration Fees 5% SOURCE: THE LEBANESE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 3

7 LEBANON NEWS BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT CONTRACTS TO $2.61 BILLION BY FEBRUARY 2018 On the current account side of the balance of payments, Lebanon s balance of trade deficit contracted by $187 million on an annual basis to just above $2.60 billion by February 2018, down from around $2.80 billion a year before, according to statistics published by Lebanon s Higher Customs Council. Said drop in the deficit was triggered by a $111 million y-o-y contraction in imports to $3.14 billion, coupled with a $75 million expansion in exports to $531 million. Balance of Trade For the Two-Month Period Ending Y-O-Y (US$ Million) February 2017 February 2018 % Change Exports % Imports 3,252 3, % Trade Balance (2,796) (2,609) -6.68% Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit USD Million 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Balance of Trade Deficit February 2017 February ,000 Exports Imports Deficit Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit China topped the list of countries exporting to Lebanon, with its exports bill reaching $392 million (12.50% of Lebanon s imports). South Africa, on the other hand, led the list of countries importing from Lebanon, with its imports invoice aggregating to $73 million (13.67% of Lebanon s exports). This is further elaborated in the tables below: Major Import Sources (in USD Million) China % Italy % Greece % Germany % USA % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Major Export Destinations (in USD Million) South Africa % Switzerland % UAE % Turkey % Saudi Arabia % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Exports of pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, and metals accounted alone for 33.01% ($175 million) of total Lebanese exports by February 2018, followed by base metals and articles of base metal ($75 million <14.03%>), prepared foodstuffs, beverages, and tobacco ($62 million <11.72%>), and chemical products ($59 million <11.07%>). On the other hand, mineral products constituted the lion s share of imported goods ($523 million <16.65%>), trailed by machinery & mechanical appliances and electrical equipment ($374 million <11.91%>), chemical products ($359 million <11.42%>), and vehicles, aircraft, vessels & associated transport ($246 million <7.84%>). Product Breakdown of Exports by Product by February 2018 Value ($ Million) % of Total Pearls, Precious or Semi-Precious Stones, and Metals % Base Metals & Articles of Base Metal % Prepared Foodstuffs, Beverages, and Tobacco % Chemical Products % Others % Total Exports % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Product Breakdown of Imports by Product by February 2018 Value ($ Million) % of Total Mineral Products % Machinery & Mechanical Appliances and Electrical Equipment % Chemical Products % Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels & Associated Transport % Others 1, % Total Imports 3, % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: HIGHER CUSTOMS COUNCIL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 4

8 LEBANON NEWS ANNUAL INFLATION IN LEBANON AT 5.35% IN MARCH 2018 According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), monthly inflation in Lebanon, as captured by the change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 0.81% in March 2018, compared to 0.20% in February. On an annual basis, Lebanon s CPI rose by 5.35% to in March 2018, from a year earlier. Said annual increase owes to the fact that all index constituents have witnessed price hikes mainly following the increase in the value added tax to 11% from 10% before, particularly a 16.63% surge in the prices of clothing & footwear (5.2% weight in the index), coupled with a 3.74% rise in the prices of food & nonalcoholic beverages (20.0% weight in the index), a 5.86% expansion in the cost of transportation (13.1% weight in the index), some 8.36% appreciation in healthcare prices (7.7% weight in the index), and a 5.24% increase in the prices of water, electricity, gas and other fuels (11.8% weight in the index), only to name a few. The following section captures the fluctuation in Lebanon s consumer basket s key constituents: Price Volatility Monthly (February March 2018) % Change Annual (March March 2018) % Change Weight Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.17% 3.74% 20.0% Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.08% 2.22% 1.4% Clothing & Footwear 9.94% 16.63% 5.2% Housing - Actual Rent 0.69% 6.41% 2.9% Housing - Owner Occupied 0.06% 4.20% 13.6% Housing - Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -1.09% 5.24% 11.8% Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance -0.10% 4.55% 3.8% Health 3.71% 8.36% 7.7% Transportation 0.87% 5.86% 13.1% Communication -0.05% 1.00% 4.5% Recreation, Amusement, and Culture 2.06% 7.91% 2.4% Education 0.10% 4.15% 6.6% Restaurant & Hotels 0.11% 3.38% 2.8% Miscellaneous Goods & Services 0.11% 3.16% 4.1% Consumer Price Index 0.81% 5.35% 100.0% Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit On a geographical basis, all regions across Lebanon witnessed a monthly appreciation in their CPI values in March, particularly some 1.40% in the North, 1.16% in the South, 0.84% in Mount Lebanon, 0.68% in Beirut, 0.38% in the Bekaa, and 0.31% in Nabatieh. March 2018 Inflation Across Regions Region Monthly Inflation Weight Beirut 0.68% 10.8% Mount Lebanon 0.84% 47.2% North 1.40% 18.0% Bekaa 0.38% 9.2% South 1.16% 8.7% Nabatieh 0.31% 6.1% Lebanon 0.81% 100.0% Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The following chart captures the evolution of the yearly change in CPI values since December 2010: Evolution of Yearly Change in CPI 12% 10% 10.10% 8% 6% 4% 4.60% 5.35% 2% 3.40% 3.10% 1.10% 3.14% 0% -2% -4% Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Mar % -3.40% SOURCE: CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION OF STATISTICS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 5

9 CORPORATE NEWS BANK AUDI REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $ MILLION IN Q Bank Audi released its unaudited financial statements this week, conveying a year-on-year increase of 3.52% in net after tax profits to $ million in the first quarter of 2018 (17% of which is attributed to its Turkish Odea Bank subsidiary and 12% to Bank Audi Egypt, lifting as such the foreign entities profitability contribution to 42%), up from $ million in Q In details, the bank witnessed a 3.16% y-o-y increase in net interest income to $ which was offset by the 19.86% drop in net fee and commission income to $52.19 million and the 34.41% plunge in net gains on financial instruments and other operating income to $20.80 million. Consequently, net operating income contracted by 4.22% y-o-y to $ million, with operating expenses dropping by 10.41% y-o-y to $ million. On the balance sheet front, Bank Audi s consolidated assets inched lower by 0.62% in the first quarter of 2018 to around $43.48 billion following the devaluation of the Turkish Lira against the U.S. dollar by 5.6% over the first quarter resulting in a negative impact of $244 million according to a statement by the bank. Consolidated net loans also fell by 4.43% in Q to $15.57 billion (of which 57.8% stem from entities outside Lebanon). In the same vein, gross doubtful loans accounted for 3.80% of the group s gross loans portfolio by end of March 2018, up from 3.50% by year-end Customer deposits, moreover, contracted by 3.74% in Q to $32.20 billion of which 35.1% stem from entities outside Lebanon. In this context, the bank s ratio of net loans to customer deposits increased to 48.36% by end of March 2018, with its shareholders equity rising by 2.07% to just above $4.27 billion. As far as profitability ratios are concerned, Bank Audi reported annualized returns on average common equity (ROaCE) and average assets (ROaA) of 12.00% and 1.10% respectively. According to a press release by the bank, collective provisions stood at $287 million, whereas the coverage ratio of doubtful loans by specific provisions and real guarantees reached 106% at end of March The group s total capital adequacy ratio calculated according to Basel III standards reached 17.90% as at end of Q while the common equity Tier 1 ratio reached 10.80% with the primary liquidity ratio firming at 68.20%. Bank Audi As at End of 2017 As at End of March 2018 In Millions of USD % Change Key Balance Sheet Figures Total Assets 43, , % Net Loans & Acceptances 16, , % Customer Deposits 33, , % Shareholders' Equity 4, , % Ratios (%) Net Loans & Acceptances to Customer Deposits 48.71% 48.36% Gross Doubtful Loans to Gross Loans 3.50% 3.80% Coverage Ratio by Specific Provisions % % In Millions of USD Q Q Y-O-Y % Change Key P&L Figures Net Interest Income % Net Commission and Fee Income % Net gains on Financial Instruments & Other Operating Income % Net Operating Income % Total Operating Expenses % Net Profits % Cost to Income 54.20% 50.80% ROaA 1.00% 1.10% ROaCE 13.50% 12.00% Primary Liquidity to Customers' Deposits Ratio 57.70% 68.20% Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (Basel III) 14.60% 17.90% Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio (Basel III) 9.10% 10.80% Source: BSE, Bank Audi, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of Bank Audi's Profitability Millions of USD Q Q SOURCE: BSE, BANK AUDI, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 6

10 CORPORATE NEWS BYBLOS BANK REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $27.85 MILLION IN Q Byblos Bank released its unaudited financial statements this week conveying a 3.09% annual contraction in net after tax profits to $27.85 million in Q1-2018, down from $28.74 million in Q1-2017, a decrease attributed by the bank to the recently introduced double taxation on banks in Lebanon which resulted in a 10 basis point decline in the bank s net interest margin to 1.29%. In details, the bank reported a 9.74% hike in net interest income to $69.77 million (accounting for more than 70% of its net operating income) coupled with a 15.67% expansion in net commission & fee income to $24.61 million which were outweighed by the 41.11% plunge in net gains on the financial instruments portfolio & other operating income to $8.49 million and the 6.42% rise in total operating expenses to $60.66 million. Said drop in net gains on the financial instruments portfolio & other operating income comes on the back of the 53.69% drop in net gain on financial instruments at fair value through profit & loss to $5.19 million coupled with the 78.40% decrease in net gain on financial assets at amortized cost to $ thousand. On the balance sheet front, Byblos Bank s consolidated assets expanded by 1.84% during the first quarter of the year 2018 to circa $23.08 billion, partly boosted by a 1.84% increase in net loans & advances to $5.55 billion. In parallel, customer deposits added a shy 0.73% in Q to $18.13 billion, with the ratio of net loans to customer deposits appreciating to 30.60% up from 30.27% at end of The bank s equity ended the first quarter of the current year up by $30.22 million at around $1.91 billion. Byblos Bank In Millions of USD As at End of 2017 As at End of March 2018 % Change Key Balance Sheet Figures Total Assets 22, , % Net Loans and Advances 5, , % Customer Deposits 18, , % Shareholders' Equity 1, , % Ratios (%) Net Loans to Customer Deposits 30.27% 30.60% In Millions of USD Q Q Y-O-Y % Change Key P&L Figures Net Interest Income % Net Commission and Fee Income % Net Gains on Financial Instruments & Other Operating Income % Net Operating Income % Total Operating Expenses % Provisions for Risks & Charges % Net Profits % Source: BSE, Byblos Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of Byblos Bank's Profitability Millions of USD Q Q Source: BSE, Byblos Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: BSE, BYBLOS BANK, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 7

11 CORPORATE NEWS BANK BEMO REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $4 MILLION IN Q Bank BEMO published its unaudited financial statements this week, conveying a 2.74% annual increase in net after tax profits to $4.06 million during the first quarter of 2018, up from $3.96 million a year before. In details, net interest income soared by 42.46% y-o-y to $7.93 million, with net commission & fee income rising by 5.03% to $1.29 million. Nevertheless, net gains on financial instruments & other operating income plunged by 48.13% on a yearly basis to $2.36 million as a result to the sizeable contraction (86.05%) in net interest & other gains on the FVTPL portfolio. Net operating income rose by 2.27% y-o-y to $11.61 million. Concurrently, the bank trimmed its total operating expenses by 4.09% annually to $6.71 million. On the balance sheet front, Bank BEMO's total assets widened by 7.82% in the first quarter of 2018 to nearly $1.91 billion, up from around $1.77 billion as at end of 2017, mainly buoyed by some 0.69% increase in net loans & advances to almost $768 million. Customer deposits, however, fell by 1.26% on a quarterly basis to $1.36 billion, with the ratio of net loans to customer deposits firming at 56.32%, from 55.24% at end of In parallel, the bank managed to grow its shareholders equity by 0.79% in Q to $ million, from $ million at year-end Bank BEMO In Millions of USD As at End of December 2017 As at End of March 2018 % Change Key Balance Sheet Figures Total Assets 1, , % Net Loans & Advances % Customer Deposits 1, , % Shareholders' Equity % Ratios (%) Net Loans to Customer Deposits 55.24% 56.32% In Millions of USD Q Q Y-O-Y % Change Key P&L Figures Net Interest Income % Net Commission and Fee Income % Net Gain on Financial Instruments & Other Operating Income % Net Operating Income % Total Operating Expenses % Net Profits % Source: BSE, Bank BEMO, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of BEMO Bank's Profitability Millions of USD Q Q SOURCE: BSE, BANK BEMO, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 8

12 CORPORATE NEWS BLC BANK REPORTS NET PROFITS OF $10.37 MILLION IN Q BLC Bank published its unaudited financial statements this week, reporting some 1.41% y-o-y drop in net after tax profits to $10.37 million in Q1-2018, down from $10.52 million in Q BLC Bank stated that recurrent income from operations in Lebanon, which mainly comprises net interest and net commission income, increased by 4.00% y-o-y to $13.60 million in the first quarter of The bank s net interest income contracted by 17.58% y-o-y to $24.63 million, and net commission & fee income came in 11.47% lower at $4.27 million. Similarly, gain on financial assets & other operating income plunged by 21.76% to $2.66 million. Consequently, BLC Bank s net financial revenues after impairment decreased by 18.92% on an annual basis to $28.06 million in the first quarter of the current year. On the balance sheet front, the bank s total assets rose by a shy 0.13% in the first quarter of the current year to just above $5.87 billion, despite the 1.27% decline in net loans and advances to around $1.58 billion. On the funding side, the bank s customer deposits rose by 1.82% in the first quarter of 2018 to $3.99 billion. Consequently, the ratio of net loans to customer deposits at BLC Bank fell to 39.60% as at end of March compared to 40.84% at end of On the capitalization front, the bank s shareholders equity widened by 1.29% quarter-onquarter to $ million. Finally, the bank reported that its capital adequacy ratio as per Basel III reached 18.90% by end of Q with its liquidity ratio in foreign currencies standing at 20.00%. BLC Bank In Millions of USD As at End of 2017 As at End of March 2018 % Change Key Balance Sheet Figures Total Assets 5, , % Net Loans and Advances 1, , % Customer Deposits 3, , % Shareholders' Equity % Ratios (%) Net Loans to Customer Deposits 40.84% 39.60% Capital Adequacy Ratio (Basel III) 18.40% 18.90% Liquidity Ratio in Foreign Currencies 17.00% 20.00% In Millions of USD Q Q Y-O-Y % Change Key P&L Figures Net Interest Income % Net Commission and Fee Income % Gain on Financial Assets & Other Operating Income % Net Financial Revenues after Impairment % Net Profits % Source: BSE, BLC Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of BLC Bank's Profitability Millions of USD 9 Q Q Source: BSE, BLC Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: BSE, BLC BANK, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 9

13 CORPORATE NEWS MOODY S ASSIGNS A B3 RATING TO THE PLANNED CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUANCE BY BLOM BANK Moody s Investors Service, the international rating agency, issued this week a credit opinion related to BLOM Bank, entailing Evolution of a BLC preliminary Bank's Profitability B3 long-term foreign-currency rating to the bank s planned issuance of certificates of deposit (CDs) denominated in US Dollars. The agency stated that this rating comes in harmony with BLOM Bank s B3 long-term deposit ratings, revealing the fact that these CDs (due 2023) will constitute direct, unsecured, and unsubordinated obligations for the bank. Moreover, Moody s said that BLOM Bank s deposit ratings are in line with the bank s b3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), which mirrors its high exposure to the sovereign (at about six-folds the bank s Tier 1 capital as at end of 2017), with the latter remaining a major credit risk factor. Moody s further spotted the light on BLOM Bank s strong local market position, where it emerges as the second largest bank in Lebanon, underlining its robust profitability and ample liquidity levels, its stable funding structure, coupled with its accumulation of Millions of USD large collective provisions sufficient in mitigating any threats arising from a possible deterioration in loans quality. Moody s added that BLOM Bank s capitalization outperforms those of its domestic peers (shareholders 9 equity to total assets ratio stood at 9.1 % as at end of 2017), yet is considered moderate Q Q amid the bank s significant exposure to the sovereign and the Weak environment in which it operates. After all, the agency noted that said ratings are provisional in nature and will be followed by definitive Source: BSE, BLC Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit ratings once the issuance actually takes place, stating that the two might vary only in case the terms and conditions of the issuance substantially diverge from the ones in the initial prospectus studied. Finally, Moody s mentioned that among the factors that may trigger a rating downgrade for BLOM Bank are: a deterioration in Lebanon s sovereign creditworthiness given the strong association between the two, or in the local operating environment, especially if followed by a slowdown in deposit growth, a large wave of capital outflows, or a hampered asset quality impacting profitability and capitalization. SOURCE: MOODY S INVESTORS SERVICE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 10

14 MONETARY PERFORMANCE MONETARY AGGREGATES All monetary aggregates ended the week of March 22, 2018 on a positive note. In fact, the overall money supply, M4, soared by LBP billion on a weekly basis and by 3.17% on an annual basis to LBP 219,931 billion, noting that the non-banking sector s Treasury bills portfolio rose by LBP 11 billion during the concerned week. Similarly, Lebanese-Pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation, M1, widened by LBP billion week-on-week to LBP 10,190 billion on the back of some LBP 202 billion hike in demand deposits, which outweighed the LBP 106 billion drop in money in circulation. On a yearly basis, M1 also grew by 4.91%. Local currency term deposits, M2, gained some LBP 7.45 billion on a weekly basis, yet receded by 3.11% year-onyear to settle at LBP 80,054 billion. Consequently, private sector term and saving deposits denominated LBP ( M2-M1 ) slipped by LBP billion (0.13%) to LBP 69,865 billion during the week of March 22, while deposits denominated in foreign currencies ( M3-M2 ) expanded by LBP billion (0.59%) to LBP 129,237 billion. It is worth noting that Banque Du Liban will be incorporating all depository corporations, including MLT banks, in their calculations of the monetary aggregates as of March 22. Money Supply LBP Billion March 15, 2018 March 22, 2018 % Change M1 10,094 10, % M2 80,047 80, % M3 208, , % M4 219, , % M2-M1 69,953 69, % M3-M2 128, , % Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 250, , ,000 Money Supply - LBP Billion - 219, , , ,292 March 15, 2018 March 22, 2018 M4 M3 Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit MONEY MARKETS The April 19 th Treasury bill auction raised LBP billion ($ million), compared to LBP 1, billion ($1, million) in the auction of the previous week. The majority of subscriptions (56.38%) was concentrated in the five-year to maturity T-bonds, followed by the one-year (22.26%) and three-month (21.36%) tenure Treasury securities. Consequently, the weighted average yield on Lebanese Pound Treasury bills stood at 5.94% in the auction of April 19. The yields on the three-month, one-year, and five-year to maturity Treasury securities remained flat at 4.44%, 5.35%, and 6.74% respectively. Lebanese Treasury Bills April 19, 2018 Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Face Value 3 Months 4.44% % 12 Months 5.35% % 60 Months 6.74% % Total % Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Lebanese Treasury Bills 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months 120 Months Treasury Yield 4.44% 4.99% 5.35% 5.84% 6.50% 6.74% 7.08% 7.46% 8.00% On The Run Yield Curve 7.50% 84 Months 120 Months 7.00% 6.50% 36 Months 60 Months 6.00% 24 Months 5.50% 12 Months 5.00% 6 Months 4.50% 3 Months 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% SOURCE: BDL, REUTERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 11

15 LEBANESE EQUITIES LEBANESE EQUITIES Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange was rather frail this week at the exception of large traded chunks on Byblos Bank listed shares involving more than 1 million stocks. In fact, the total number of shares changing hands soared to 1,598,548 shares this week, compared to 1,051,831 shares last week, while traded value fell to $6.88 million, from nearly $7.23 million a week before. Trades were mainly concentrated in banking stocks, which accounted for 85.85% of weekly traded volume. The average daily trading volume rallied to 319,710 shares this week, from 210,366 shares a week earlier. Conversely, the average daily trading value narrowed to just below $1.38 million, from around $1.45 million last week. Six losers and three gainers were screened this week, dragging the BSE s market capitalization down by 0.67% week-on-week to $11.24 billion and the Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index ( CLASI ) lower by 0.55% to 1,071.51, noting that it had hit its year-low of 1, on Thursday. In the real estate sector, trades mainly consisted of Solidere A and B shares (14.11% of total traded volume), with the price of Solidere A appreciating by 3.39% on a weekly basis to $8.53 and that of Solidere B increasing by 2.07% to $8.38. Consequently, the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index ( CLCI ) was up by 2.34% to In the banking sector, Byblos Bank listed shares amassed the highest concentration of trades (74.41% of total traded volume) on a thin turnover ratio of 0.21%. The Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index ( CLFI ) contracted by 1.18% on a weekly basis to 1, This comes as a result of the 9.64% plunge in the price of Byblos Bank listed shares to $1.50, coupled with a 0.80% drop in the price of BLOM Bank listed shares to $11.10, which outweighed the 2.23% increase in the price of BLOM Bank GDRs to $ Credit Libanais Week of Week of Weekly YTD Indices 20-Apr Apr-18 % Change % Change Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index <.CLASI> Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index <.CLFI> Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index <.CLCI> Index Value.CLASI 1,160 1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1, Apr Jun-17 1, , % -1.55% 1, , % -3.22% % 6.66% Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Weekly Performance CLASI CLASI 0.55% 09-Aug Sep-17 Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Friday, April 27, 2018 Value Daily % Chng Daily Net Chng 1, % 3.19 Yr.High Year Hi.Date Yr.Low Year.Lo.Date 1, Apr-18 1, Apr-18 Life High Life Hi.Date Life Low Life.Lo.Date 1, Jul Mar Nov Jan Mar Apr-18 Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLFI Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLCI 1, , Index Value 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 CLFI 1.18% Index Value CLCI 2.34% 1, Apr Jun Aug Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr Apr Jun Aug Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr-18 SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 12

16 LEBANESE EQUITIES BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE Closing Weekly %Change Weekly Volume Traded Lebanese Equities % of Weekly Weekly Volume Traded Value Traded Market Capitalisation ($000) Solidere A $ % 137, % $1,154, % 100,000, , % Solidere B $ % 87, % $728, % 65,000, , % BLC Bank $ % ,033,333 66, % BLC Bank Preferred Class "C" $ % ,000 35,000 n.a n.a 0.00% BLC Bank Preferred Class "D" $ % ,000 75,000 n.a n.a 0.00% Bank Audi - Listed Shares $ % 19, % $111, % 399,749,204 2,298, % Bank Audi GDR $ % 27, % $160, % 119,924, , % Bank Audi Preferred "G" $ % ,500, ,450 n.a n.a 0.00% Bank Audi Preferred "H" $ % ,000 75,000 n.a n.a -0.60% Bank Audi Preferred "I" $ % 1, % $99, % 2,500, ,750 n.a n.a -0.45% Bank Audi Preferred "J" $ % ,750, ,000 n.a n.a 0.05% Bank Of Beirut - Listed Shares $ % ,746, , % Bank Of Beirut Priority Shares 2014 $ % ,762, , % Bank Of Beirut Preferred "H" $ % ,400, ,400 n.a n.a 0.39% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "I" $ % ,000, ,000 n.a n.a 1.96% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "J" $ % ,000,000 78,000 n.a n.a 1.36% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "K" $ % ,000, ,000 n.a n.a 2.56% Byblos Bank - Listed Shares $ % 1,189, % $1,830, % 565,515, , % Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2008 $ % 6, % $657, % 2,000, ,000 n.a n.a -1.57% Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2009 $ % 7, % $731, % 2,000, ,000 n.a n.a -0.99% Byblos Bank GDR $ % % $50, % 1,309, , % BEMO Bank - Listed Shares $ % ,400,000 77, % BEMO Bank Preferred Class 2013 $ % ,000 36,645 n.a n.a 1.36% BLOM Bank GDR $ % 118, % $1,329, % 73,896, , % BLOM Bank Listed Shares $ % 1, % $20, % 215,000,000 2,386, % RYMCO Class "B" $ % ,920,000 36, % Holcim Liban $ % % $9, % 19,516, , % Ciment Blancs Nominal $ % ,000,000 25, % Note: n.a stands for not applicable Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit % of Weekly Value Traded Total Listed Shares P/E P/BV YTD Price Perf. Activity Analysis Previous Last % Change Value Traded ($) 7,227,960 6,883, % Volume Traded 1,051,831 1,598, % Average Daily Trading Value ($) 1,445,592 1,376, % Average Daily Trading Volume 210, , % Market Cap - BSE ($) 11,317,839,124 11,241,644, % Weighted Average P/E % Weighted Average P/BV % Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of Beirut Bourse Comparable Benchmarks Apr 20, 2018 Apr 27, 2018 P/E P/BV Source: BSE, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The market-cap weighted average price to earnings (P/E) multiple of listed stocks ended its week higher at 7.314x, while the price to book value (P/BV) slipped to 0.776x as per the closing prices of Friday s session. SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 13

17 LEBANON S MAIN INDICATORS Recap of Lebanon's Major Indicators MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP (Current Prices) ($ Billion) * 49.46* 49.61* 51.46* 53.62* Real GDP Growth Rate 0.92% 2.80% 2.64% 2.00%* 0.82%* 1.00%* 1.20%* 1.50%* GDP per Capita (Current Prices) ($) 9,144 9,914 10,399* 10,810* 11,178* 11,105* 11,409* 11,775* Foreign Direct Investment Inflows ($ Billion) FDI/GDP Ratio 7.84% 7.09% 5.78% 5.84% 4.71% 5.13% INDUSTRY Industrial Exports ($ Million) 3,530 3,567 3,384 3,150 2,956 2,527 2, (2) Import of Industrial Machinery ($ Million) (2) TOURISM Total Number of Tourists 1,655,051 1,365,845 1,274,362 1,354,647 1,517,927 1,688,357 1,856,795 Growth in Tax- Free Spending 10% - 6% 4% 8% 2% - 9% 5% 1.6 % (5) REAL ESTATE Value of Real Estate Transactions ($ Million) 8,841 9,175 8,708 8,952 8,006 8,482 9,954 2,012 (5) Number of Real Estate Sales Transactions 82,984 74,569 69,198 70,721 63,386 64,248 73,541 14,181 (5) Construction Permits (000 sqm) 13,890 12,362 10,527 11,159 10,294 9,935 9,271 2,169 (5) Cement Delivery (000 tons) 5,550 5,309 5,831 5,517 5,043 5,265 5, (2) TRANSPORTATION Beirut Port: Freight Activity (000 Tons) 6,677 7,225 8,268 8,281 7,240 8,737 8,629 2,060 (5) Beirut Airport: Number of Passengers (million) (2) FOREIGN TRADE Imports ($ Million) 20,158 21,280 21,228 20,494 18,069 18,705 23,130 3,141 (3) Exports ($ Million) 4,265 4,483 3,936 3,313 2,952 2,977 2, (3) Trade Balance ($ Million) (15,893) (16,797) (17,292) (17,181) (15,117) (15,729) (20,287) (2,609) (3) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Net Foreign Assets at the Financial Sector ($ Million) (1,996) (1,537) (1,127) (1,407) (3,354) 1,238 (157) (2) Foreign Assets at BDL ($ Billion) (6) Gold Reserves at BDL ($ Billion) (6) PUBLIC FINANCE Government Expenditures ($ Million) 11,675 13,321 13,640 13,952 13,528 14,867 15,381 Government Revenues ($ Million) 9,333 9,396 9,420 10,879 9,576 9,923 11,625 Budget Primary Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) 1,662 (110) (240) 1, ,428 Total Deficit ($ Million) (2,342) (3,925) (4,220) (3,073) (3,952) (4,944) (3,756) Deficit / GDP Ratio 5.84% 8.95% 9.17% 6.42% 7.99% 9.97% 7.30% Debt Service / GDP Ratio 9.99% 8.25% 8.24% 9.16% 9.46% 10.01% 10.07% Net Public Debt ($ Billion) (2) Gross Public Debt/GDP Ratio % % % % % %* %* %* MONETARY AGGREGATES & INFLATION M4 ($ Billion) (4) (M2-M1) ($ Billion) (4) Monetization Level (M2/GDP Ratio) 99.32% 99.97% 98.97% % % % % Change in CPI (%) 4.27% 4.68% 2.05% -1.66% -3.40% 3.14% 5.01% 5.35% (5) BANKING SYSTEM Number of Commercial Banks (1) Number of Branches ,020 1,039 1,056 1,063 (1) Total Assets ($ Million) 140, , , , , , , ,586 (2) Total Deposits ($ Million) 117, , , , , , , ,558 (2) Loans to the Private Sector ($ Million) 39,375 43,452 47,381 50,899 54,224 57,180 60,318 59,613 (2) Customer Loans/ Deposits 33.45% 34.04% 34.05% 34.48% 34.99% 34.35% 34.87% 35.35% (2) Dollarization Rate 65.92% 64.82% 66.14% 65.71% 64.88% 65.82% 68.72% 68.44% (2) Exchange Rate (LBP to USD) 1, , , , , , , , * Figures Reflect IM F Estimates (1) As at End of September, 2017, (2) As at End of January, 2018, (3) As at End of February, 2018, (4) A s at M arch 22, 2018, (5) As at End of M arch, 2018, (6) As at M id-april, 2018 SOURCE: CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 14

18 LEBANON S RATINGS Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Outlook Standard & Poor's Global Ratings Long- Term B- Short- Term B Stable Moody's Investors Service Long- Term B3 Long- Term B- Fitch Ratings Short- Term B Source: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service, S&P Global Ratings Stable Stable Lebanese Banks' Latest Ratings Rated Banks Moody's Investors Service Fitch Ratings S&P Global Ratings Long Term Foreign Currency Outlook Long Term IDR Outlook Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Outlook Bank Audi B3 Stable B- Stable B- C Stable BLOM Bank B3 Stable - - B- - Stable Byblos Bank B3 Stable B- Stable BankMed B- C Stable Source: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service, S&P Global Ratings SOURCE: S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, MOODY S, FITCH RATINGS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 15

19 CONTACTS RESEARCH Fadlo I. Choueiri, CFA EXT: 1280 Jad Abi Haidar, CFA EXT Joelle Samaha EXT Mayda Zaarour EXT Nagham Abdel Ahad EXT MONEY MARKETS DESK Robert Araman EXT This document is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe to or purchase any security, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and the estimates, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reliable. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

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