Is It Really Possible To Outperform The Stock Market? Kevin Barry
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1 Is It Really Possible To Outperform The Stock Market? Kevin Barry
2 A Rising Tide Lifts All Yachts Warren Buffett
3 What moves the price of a stock? Overall Market 50% Industry or Sector 30% Individual Stock Fundamentals 20%
4 What is a sector? A group of securities in the same industry or market
5 Sector Classification Sub Sectors By Sector Within The Dow Jones Indices
6 Sector Classification Securities By Sub Sector Within The Dow Jones Indices
7 The Economic Cycle
8 The Economic Cycle 3 7 Years: Average around 60 months
9 The Economic Cycle Sector Rotation Within The Economic Cycle Health Care Consumer Staples Energy Utilities Basic Materials Financial Services Capital Goods Consumer Cyclicals Transportation Technology
10 The Economic Cycle Investment Strategies Compared Over Ten Years Starting Capital $1,000 Buy & Hold $6,000 Market Timing $15,000 Sector Rotation $63,000 Source: CDA/Weisenberger 1996
11 External Relative Strength Analysis ERSA
12 External Relative Strength Analysis What ERSA Is NOT Wilder s RSI Indicator Internal Relative Strength Indicator comparing a security s price to its own recent history Comparative Relative Strength Comparing the performance of a security against an index
13 External Relative Strength Analysis Using ERSA To Find The Leading Stocks In The Leading Sectors Compare the Price Rate Of Change over a set number of periods
14 External Relative Strength Analysis What Is Price Rate Of Change? $5 move = 13.5% $5 move = 2.5%
15 External Relative Strength Analysis What Is Price Rate Of Change? 10-Day ROC + 2% - 7%
16 External Relative Strength Analysis Using ERSA To Find The Leading Stocks In The Leading Sectors Compare the Price Rate Of Change over a set number of periods Compare each Sector/Security s ROC within your universe Sort the Sectors/Securities by ROC Apply a Percentile Ranking Top 1% get a rating of 99, next 1% get a rating of 98, etc. This is the technique used by Investors Business Daily
17 Dow Jones Super Sectors Automobiles & Parts Banks Basic Resources Chemicals Construction & Materials Financial Services Food & Beverage Health Care Industrial Goods & Services Insurance Media Oil & Gas Personal & Household Goods Real Estate Retail Technology Telecommunications Travel & Leisure Utilities
18 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 4th September 2012
19 ERSA Dow Jones Media Super Sector Analysis 4 th September 2012
20 Media Super Sector New York Times Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
21 Media Super Sector Scripps Networks Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
22 Media Super Sector Liberty Cap Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
23 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 4th September 2012
24 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 4th September 2012
25 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 4th September 2012
26 ERSA Dow Jones Telecommunications Super Sector Analysis 4 th September 2012
27 Telecommunications Super Sector Sprint Corp Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
28 Telecommunications Super Sector Cincinnati Bell Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
29 Telecommunications Super Sector Frontier Communications Analysis 4 th September Day Moving Average
30 What Happened Next?
31 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors S&P500 Index 31 st October 2012
32 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 31 st October 2012
33 Media Super Sector New York Times 31 st October 2012 ERSA Analysis
34 Media Super Sector Scripps Networks 31 st October 2012
35 Media Super Sector Liberty Cap 31 st October 2012
36 Telecommunications Super Sector Sprint Corp 31 st October 2012
37 Telecommunications Super Sector Cincinnati Bell 31 st October 2012
38 Telecommunications Super Sector Frontier Communications 31 st October 2012
39 Recent ERSA Analysis
40 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 31st October 2012
41 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 31st October 2012
42 ERSA Dow Jones Super Sectors Analysis 31st October 2012
43 Construction & Materials Super Sector - UNG 31 st October Day Moving Average
44 Construction & Materials Super Sector Eagle Materials 31 st October Day Moving Average
45 Construction Super Sector ishares Home Construction ETF 31 st October 2012 Ticker ITB 50-Day Moving Average
46 Sector Rotation Strategy Using ETFs
47 Sector Rotation Strategy Using ETFs ishares Sector ETFs Utilities Consumer Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrial Consumer Goods Basic Materials Technology Communications Long-Term Treasury Bonds IDU IYC IYE IYF IYH IYJ IYK IYM IYW IYZ TLT Source: Seeking Alpha
48 Sector Rotation Strategy Using ETFs At month-end, rank the 10 ETFs based upon their 6-month total return Next day, buy (or hold) the top 2 ETFs if above their 6-month moving average If one or both ETFs is below their 6-month moving average, buy TLT Bonds ETF Repeat every month Source: Seeking Alpha
49 Investment Strategies Compared Sector Rotation Strategy Yearly Performance Source: Seeking Alpha
50 Is It Really Possible To Outperform The Stock Market? Kevin Barry
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